Is the 3.07 too early to grab D. Williams? (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

I took Edge at 1.07 and CJ @ 2.06. 12-teamer, start QB, Wr, WR, WR/RB, RB, RB, TE, K, DST

I was thinking that if I nab him I could grab Foster in round 5 or 6, or a different back like TJones if he's still around further than he should be. I think some players likely to be available at that spot are: Jamal Lewis, Chester Taylor, Corey Dillion, Laurence Maroney, Droughns (doubt it), Benson, TJones

hate all these RBBCs. The possibility of starting three RBs makes the pool very slim....

draft thus far

1.1 - d4484 - Larry Johnson RB

1.2 - jpstruder - LT2 RB

1.3 - diesel109 - Shaun Alexander RB

1.4 - abalow - Peyton Manning QB

1.5 - igwebuike - Clinton Portis RB

1.6 - BryanLamb - Ronnie Brown RB

1.7 - sholditch - Edge RB

1.8 - Diablos - Rudi Johnson RB

1.9 - Snipes - Sjax RB

1.10 - BPWallace - Steve Smith WR

1.11 - Raiderfan013 - Caddy RB

1.12 - Mogamdogz - Lordan RB

2.1 - Mogamdogz - Fitz WR

2.2 - Raiderfan013 - Westy RB

2.3 - bpwallace - Palmer QB

2.4 - snipes - Tiki RB

2.5 - diablos - Dom Davis RB

2.6 - sholditch - Johnson WR

2.7 - BryanLamb - Gates TE

2.8 - igwebuike - Reggie Bush RB

2.9 - abalow - McGahee RB

2.10 - diesel109 - Randy Moss WR

2.11 - jpstruder - Julius Jones RB

2.12 - d4484

 

[gman8343]

Reggie Bush slipped pretty far in this one

 

[broncofan13000]

what about Benson? He could be a nice pickup, and if u can nab TJ later on, you should be fine.

 

[Capt Hook]

I don't think Foster will last until the fifth and that can't be a primary reason to draft Williams.

Frankly I think Maroney would be a better pick.

With starting 3RB, everyone is going to have to be "short" somewhere - just draft for best value and don't go overboard - Dynasty Leagues still have winners THIS year (absurd that Tiki went that low)

 

[diesel7982]

If you start 3RB in this league, passing up Bush and/or McGahee for Chad Johnson was a huge, HUGE blunder in terms of getting value.

WRs in this format are devauled compared to RBs.

 

[sholditch]

I thought about taking Bush for a loooong time, but honestly, he was just too risky for me there. McGahee I thought about for a while as well. I'm def. going RB in the next round. The Chicago RBBC I am seriously thinking of targeting if D. Williams gets taken before then. My reasoning on passing on McGahee and Bush was basically I think that D. Williams is in a better situation than both of them, and I felt that there is a good chance he could fall to me at that pick. If he doesn't,, I'd really be just as happy with Benson or maybe Maroney.

Basically I see the RB situation as extremely muddy this year, and think that there will be comparable value to bush and mcgahee at the 3.07. Well, hope is a better word...

 

[sholditch]

I see the rook RBs like this:

Bush

Williams (slightly below)

.

.

Maroney

.

.

White

Addai

I also think it's absurd Tiki went that low but I couldn't pass on James in the first and def. would have taken him at my 2.

I don't think Foster will last until the fifth and that can't be a primary reason to draft Williams.

Frankly I think Maroney would be a better pick.

With starting 3RB, everyone is going to have to be "short" somewhere - just draft for best value and don't go overboard - Dynasty Leagues still have winners THIS year (absurd that Tiki went that low)

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's worth the risk that high. I'd be looking at guys like Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson (injury?), Jeremy Shockey, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson.

 

[sholditch]

I don't think he's worth the risk that high. I'd be looking at guys like Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson (injury?), Jeremy Shockey, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson.

Not terribly high on any of those guys, and made my second pick with steadfast decision of taking a high-potential back in the third.

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's worth the risk that high. I'd be looking at guys like Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson (injury?), Jeremy Shockey, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson.

Not terribly high on any of those guys, and made my second pick with steadfast decision of taking a high-potential back in the third.

Okay, but I don't see any reason to take such a big risk so early in the draft. You want a "high-potential" back then wait a few rounds and grab Chris Perry. He's been in the league longer and has proven more on the football field. You could also try waiting a round and then going with LenDale White. He seems to have a better opportunity to start next season and looks like a better FF prospect to me.

 

[mightyeskimo]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

 

[sholditch]

I don't think he's worth the risk that high. I'd be looking at guys like Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson (injury?), Jeremy Shockey, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson.

Not terribly high on any of those guys, and made my second pick with steadfast decision of taking a high-potential back in the third.

Okay, but I don't see any reason to take such a big risk so early in the draft. You want a "high-potential" back then wait a few rounds and grab Chris Perry. He's been in the league longer and has proven more on the football field. You could also try waiting a round and then going with LenDale White. He seems to have a better opportunity to start next season and looks like a better FF prospect to me.

Well, we'll agree to disagree about White's potential, though I could see him falling and therefore being a better value pick.Basically (and I might have blinders on here) I think that D. Williams could end up being a comparable if not better overall back than Bush, and has much weaker competition in front of him.

But I hear what you're saying, cause it's the same logic I used to pass on Bush in round 2...any rookie back is risky

 

[sholditch]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

Is there any bearing to how returning kicks rookie season affects a back's career? Obviously it would be bad for this year, but would it affect his overall ascension to top back (I've always viewed this as when, not if)

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's worth the risk that high. I'd be looking at guys like Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson (injury?), Jeremy Shockey, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson.

Not terribly high on any of those guys, and made my second pick with steadfast decision of taking a high-potential back in the third.

Okay, but I don't see any reason to take such a big risk so early in the draft. You want a "high-potential" back then wait a few rounds and grab Chris Perry. He's been in the league longer and has proven more on the football field. You could also try waiting a round and then going with LenDale White. He seems to have a better opportunity to start next season and looks like a better FF prospect to me.

Well, we'll agree to disagree about White's potential, though I could see him falling and therefore being a better value pick.Basically (and I might have blinders on here) I think that D. Williams could end up being a comparable if not better overall back than Bush, and has much weaker competition in front of him.

But I hear what you're saying, cause it's the same logic I used to pass on Bush in round 2...any rookie back is risky

Yea. Obviously it's your decision, but I think it can be dangerous to try to find the next big thing so early in the going. I'm willing to make an exception for Bush because he's such a great prospect, but I think Williams is significantly more risky. You're just as likely to get a Michael Bennett as a LaDainian Tomlinson.That said, if you want to draft a rookie RB in a dynasty league then you have to be prepared to reach. These guys always go earlier than they should. If you truly believe Williams is destined for stardom then 3.07 is probably an appropriate spot. In fact, he might not even last that long.

 

[mightyeskimo]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

Is there any bearing to how returning kicks rookie season affects a back's career? Obviously it would be bad for this year, but would it affect his overall ascension to top back (I've always viewed this as when, not if)

Yeah! If he's playing on special teams and not starting at RB there isn't going to be an ascension!

 

[sholditch]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

Is there any bearing to how returning kicks rookie season affects a back's career? Obviously it would be bad for this year, but would it affect his overall ascension to top back (I've always viewed this as when, not if)

Yeah! If he's playing on special teams and not starting at RB there isn't going to be an ascension!

So you really think that A) if he gets used on special teams he won't be the no. 2 RB, and B) if he isn't the no. 2 RB this year he'll never be a starting RB?Just making sure I got that right. Seems a little weird to take a RB in the first to be a special teams player. Also, prior to this article, everything I have read has had rave reviews about him from camp. Fox already has a nickname for the guy (Mighty Mouse). Also, I didn't read anything in there that said taking a few returns on special teams would mean he wouldn't be the primary back-up to Foster, who we all know is brittle. Not arguing, just would be interested to hear a more detailed opinion...

 

[mightyeskimo]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

Is there any bearing to how returning kicks rookie season affects a back's career? Obviously it would be bad for this year, but would it affect his overall ascension to top back (I've always viewed this as when, not if)

Yeah! If he's playing on special teams and not starting at RB there isn't going to be an ascension!

So you really think that A) if he gets used on special teams he won't be the no. 2 RB, and B) if he isn't the no. 2 RB this year he'll never be a starting RB?Just making sure I got that right. Seems a little weird to take a RB in the first to be a special teams player. Also, prior to this article, everything I have read has had rave reviews about him from camp. Fox already has a nickname for the guy (Mighty Mouse). Also, I didn't read anything in there that said taking a few returns on special teams would mean he wouldn't be the primary back-up to Foster, who we all know is brittle. Not arguing, just would be interested to hear a more detailed opinion...

Perhaps my first reply wasn't phrased correctly since you used the word 'career'. The point I'm making is this, I would not count on an ascension this year considering this most recent article. It's very common for 1st round draft picks to start as special teams guys in the first year just to get them familiar with the NFL. If he plays on ST he will not be starting at RB. It's either one or the other in this league for RB's. It's possible he stops playing on ST and gets the starting RB role, sure. However, I do not see this as likely. If you're in a redraft league I would look to a starter rather than a backup who is not guarenteed a starting role. Now if you're sure you can get Foster that is a totally different story. Same thing with TJ and Benson. As long as you can lock up a starter now, that's cool. And having a backup like DW would just be icing on a tasty cake!

 

[beto]

If you rate Williams close to Bush 3.07 is not too early. In all my analysis, history has proven that the #2 rookie RB can be worth as much as a mid to late 2nd round pick in an initial dynasty. Do your research to decide if you think Williams is better or worse than the typical #2 rookie RB.

FWIW, I would rather have Tiki than Edge in a dynasty.

 

[sholditch]

Thanks for the responses and I would be very interested in your reasoning of Tiki over Edge in a dynasty. Tiki's contract runs until 2008, and when he got the extension, he said he was glad he would be able to finish out his career as a Giant, meaning I'd get 06 and 07, and maybe 08 depending on whether the Giants want to bring in a cold starter. Edge I feel is just hitting his prime and I don't expect the move to AZ to be the disaster that everyone else does. I view Edge and Tiki as equal in talent and went with the longer shelf-life in Edge. I will be targeting Tiki in all of my redrafts, but just wasn't sure for a dynasty.

I really do think that DW can be really, really good. He reminds me to a T of Caddy, who I also think will end up being one of the better runners in the league. My main wonder is what I will do if choosing between Benson, DW, and someone like Droughns, who I don't really like because of character issues.

 

[sholditch]

Perhaps my first reply wasn't phrased correctly since you used the word 'career'. The point I'm making is this, I would not count on an ascension this year considering this most recent article. It's very common for 1st round draft picks to start as special teams guys in the first year just to get them familiar with the NFL. If he plays on ST he will not be starting at RB. It's either one or the other in this league for RB's. It's possible he stops playing on ST and gets the starting RB role, sure. However, I do not see this as likely. If you're in a redraft league I would look to a starter rather than a backup who is not guarenteed a starting role. Now if you're sure you can get Foster that is a totally different story. Same thing with TJ and Benson. As long as you can lock up a starter now, that's cool. And having a backup like DW would just be icing on a tasty cake!

OK, I am thinking dynasty here and would be willing to wait a year for him to develop. When I took Edge I thought that he will probably be better next year than this one cause their O-Line still needs some work, so I wouldn't be averse to being an also-ran this year if it helps me dominate for years to come. Also, I think it's only a matter of time, 7-8 weeks to be precise, before Foster goes down.

 

[VaCatFan]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

Also came from the Panther beat writer (Darin Gantt). He's solid with his information:Here's how deep the Panthers roster has become: Their first two draft picks were getting a lot of special teams work last week.

First-round running back DeAngelo Williams and second-round corner Marshall took turns fielding kickoffs last week, as the team searches for more production there.

 

[diesel7982]

Thanks for the responses and I would be very interested in your reasoning of Tiki over Edge in a dynasty. Tiki's contract runs until 2008, and when he got the extension, he said he was glad he would be able to finish out his career as a Giant, meaning I'd get 06 and 07, and maybe 08 depending on whether the Giants want to bring in a cold starter. Edge I feel is just hitting his prime and I don't expect the move to AZ to be the disaster that everyone else does. I view Edge and Tiki as equal in talent and went with the longer shelf-life in Edge. I will be targeting Tiki in all of my redrafts, but just wasn't sure for a dynasty.

I really do think that DW can be really, really good. He reminds me to a T of Caddy, who I also think will end up being one of the better runners in the league. My main wonder is what I will do if choosing between Benson, DW, and someone like Droughns, who I don't really like because of character issues.

Edge is starting his 8th year in the league, and will turn 28 in August.If he is just NOW hitting his prime, hes a historical anomoly.

 

[sholditch]

http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStorie.../D8I7H690A.html

If this is more true than reporter crap it could drop Williams slightly.

Also came from the Panther beat writer (Darin Gantt). He's solid with his information:Here's how deep the Panthers roster has become: Their first two draft picks were getting a lot of special teams work last week.

First-round running back DeAngelo Williams and second-round corner Marshall took turns fielding kickoffs last week, as the team searches for more production there.

In your opinion, does that denote a lack of confidence in DW as a runner, or an abundance of confidence in Foster, or simply need for more production on ST?

 

[sholditch]

Thanks for the responses and I would be very interested in your reasoning of Tiki over Edge in a dynasty. Tiki's contract runs until 2008, and when he got the extension, he said he was glad he  would be able to finish out his career as a Giant, meaning I'd get 06 and 07, and maybe 08 depending on whether the Giants want to bring in a cold starter. Edge I feel is just hitting his prime and I don't expect the move to AZ to be the disaster that everyone else does. I view Edge and Tiki as equal in talent and went with the longer shelf-life in Edge. I will be targeting Tiki in all of my redrafts, but just wasn't sure for a dynasty.

I really do think that DW can be really, really good. He reminds me to a T of Caddy, who I also think will end up being one of the better runners in the league. My main wonder is what I will do if choosing between Benson, DW, and someone like Droughns, who I don't really like because of character issues.

Edge is starting his 8th year in the league, and will turn 28 in August.If he is just NOW hitting his prime, hes a historical anomoly.

Tiki didn't hit his prime until about that time, and actually could be said to have hit it much later. Still, I felt 28 is better than 33. I would say Edge has at least 4 more years until he really starts to slow down.

 

[diesel7982]

Thanks for the responses and I would be very interested in your reasoning of Tiki over Edge in a dynasty. Tiki's contract runs until 2008, and when he got the extension, he said he was glad he  would be able to finish out his career as a Giant, meaning I'd get 06 and 07, and maybe 08 depending on whether the Giants want to bring in a cold starter. Edge I feel is just hitting his prime and I don't expect the move to AZ to be the disaster that everyone else does. I view Edge and Tiki as equal in talent and went with the longer shelf-life in Edge. I will be targeting Tiki in all of my redrafts, but just wasn't sure for a dynasty.

I really do think that DW can be really, really good. He reminds me to a T of Caddy, who I also think will end up being one of the better runners in the league. My main wonder is what I will do if choosing between Benson, DW, and someone like Droughns, who I don't really like because of character issues.

Edge is starting his 8th year in the league, and will turn 28 in August.If he is just NOW hitting his prime, hes a historical anomoly.

Tiki didn't hit his prime until about that time, and actually could be said to have hit it much later. Still, I felt 28 is better than 33. I would say Edge has at least 4 more years until he really starts to slow down.

Which is a good rationalization, except:After 8 seasons in their respective careers, Edge has 25% more touches than Tiki did. (2500 vs. 2000), and that includes the 1.5 years Edge missed with a torn ACL. Hes taken alot of beatings over his 6.5 years of active duty, whereas Tiki has never had a serious injury.

Expecting Edge to hit his stride at his 8th year in the league after that many touches is, as I said, fighting against history.

 

[kylechoffman]

I took Edge at 1.07 and CJ @ 2.06. 12-teamer, start QB, Wr, WR, WR/RB, RB, RB, TE, K, DST

I was thinking that if I nab him I could grab Foster in round 5 or 6, or a different back like TJones if he's still around further than he should be. I think some players likely to be available at that spot are: Jamal Lewis, Chester Taylor, Corey Dillion, Laurence Maroney, Droughns (doubt it), Benson, TJones

hate all these RBBCs. The possibility of starting three RBs makes the pool very slim....

draft thus far

1.1 - d4484 - Larry Johnson RB

1.2 - jpstruder - LT2 RB

1.3 - diesel109 - Shaun Alexander RB

1.4 - abalow - Peyton Manning QB

1.5 - igwebuike - Clinton Portis RB

1.6 - BryanLamb - Ronnie Brown RB

1.7 - sholditch - Edge RB

1.8 - Diablos - Rudi Johnson RB

1.9 - Snipes - Sjax RB

1.10 - BPWallace - Steve Smith WR

1.11 - Raiderfan013 - Caddy RB

1.12 - Mogamdogz - Lordan RB

2.1 - Mogamdogz - Fitz WR

2.2 - Raiderfan013 - Westy RB

2.3 - bpwallace - Palmer QB

2.4 - snipes - Tiki RB

2.5 - diablos - Dom Davis RB

2.6 - sholditch - Johnson WR

2.7 - BryanLamb - Gates TE

2.8 - igwebuike - Reggie Bush RB

2.9 - abalow - McGahee RB

2.10 - diesel109 - Randy Moss WR

2.11 - jpstruder - Julius Jones RB

2.12 - d4484

Dynasty - I would have looked at S Jax or caddy personally. Again with Dynasty - bush or mcgahee would have been the pick. Benson is a solid option, esp since this is dynasty.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

what about Benson? He could be a nice pickup, and if u can nab TJ later on, you should be fine.

Benson over DWill?????

 

[kylechoffman]

what about Benson? He could be a nice pickup, and if u can nab TJ later on, you should be fine.

Benson over DWill?????

Both are bad situations in that its a ? on whos starting.. but go with your gut.

 

[Domination]

No question you need a RB, Williams or Maroney would be good picks, but remember that Dillon is much older than Foster. Benson could be a monster if he can get TJ off is back. Other guy to think about might be W Parker, he is young and everyone knows that Pitt loves to run.

1) Maroney

2)Parker

3)Benson

4)Williams

 

[sholditch]

well, the pick is coming up. Dwill has a higher rating than Benson in the dynasty rankings here. It's a tough call. Here are the backs left:

Benson

Deuce

DWill

Maroney

Bell

CTaylor

Foster

Tjones

Jamal Lewis

Dunn

Dillon

and some crap and some older guys

I'm really only considering the younger guys...Benson, Dwill, and maybe Jamal.

Taylor just went...

Benson, Maroney or DWill, or Jamal

hmmmm

thanks for all the advice. I couldn't pass on DWill after seeing him play. Maroney is a good one too, and as a bears fan Benson was attractive, but I really have a feeling about this one. Risky as hell but I am hoping some of the lesser known fall as well. I plan on stockpiling RBs.