Is the CHI DEF an every week start the rest of the way? (1 Viewer)

[speedball]

While DEF and DEF/ST scoring systems vary from league to league, I'd be willing to bet that the CHI DEF is a top tier defense in almost every league. Tied for 1st in points allowed and 2nd in turnovers recovered, tied for 21st in sacks. According to my league scoring system, the only bad week they've had so far is Week 6 versus SEA. However, at least some of their success comes from the schedule they've played so far:

Team/Points Scored Per Game Rank/Offensive Turnovers Rank

Week 1 - DET/15/11

Week 2 - @ DAL/17/9

Week 3 - GB/8/25

Week 4 - @ NYG/7/1

Week 5 - @ CAR/32/2

Week 6 - SEA/27/15

Week 7 - WAS/23/20

Week 8 - BYE

Week 9 - @ BUF/21/14

Week 10 - MIN/29T/4

Week 11 - @ MIA/29T/16

The best team CHI played in the first 11 weeks was GB in Week 3, 8th in points per game and 25th in offensive turnovers (13 total). The other teams have ranged from terrible to mediocre in points per game and offensive turnovers.

Looking ahead to Weeks 12-16, though, the schedule gets tougher:

Team/Points Scored Per Game Rank/Offensive Turnovers Rank

Week 12 - PHI/2/29

Week 13 - @ DET/15/11

Week 14 - NE/1/31

Week 15 - @ MIN/29/4

Week 16 - NYJ/11T/28

While Weeks 13 and 15 against DET and MIN are good match-ups, Weeks 12, 14, and 16 don't look so good. PHI, NE, and NYJ are all in the top third in points per game, and turn the ball over very infrequently. Given the paucity of good teams CHI played earlier in their schedule and the tough upcoming match-ups, is CHI still an every week DEF start, or should they be paired with another DEF to cover Weeks 12, 14, and 16?

Right now, I'd say that the CHI DEF is best paired with another DEF (CLE and OAK seem to match up well), but I'm interested in what others have to say. One possible argument for sticking with the CHI DEF (and freeing up a roster spot for another player) may be that the CHI offense, while ranked 25th in points per game, seems to be finding its stride in the last several weeks. The offensive line is playing better (still not great, but not as bad as they were earlier in the year), and they are running the ball more in the last three weeks (30 or more attempts per game), which helps with time of possession and keeps the DEF off the field.

What say you?

 

[hip80]

I don't have the level of analysis that you have, but I'm rolling with them from here on out regardless of match-up. Look at it this way, at least the bad match-ups you outlined are at home outdoors at Soldier Field, and it's fixin' to get pretty cold outside. Not to mention, if you get return yardage or return TDs, you get the benefit of some of Hester's points without having to play him at WR. And Peppers has been a beast. PA can be a concern for sure, but I say they make up for any higher scoring games with some special teams plays (even a blocked kick?) and very respectable numbers fro turnovers.

Hmmph, I guess I did have some analysis! Good luck.

 

[The_Wolfman]

I don't believe they are a must start. This week they get the Eagles, and in two weeks they have the Patriots. I'd be leery of rolling any defense out against elite offenses like those. Also, they are paired with a turnover prone offense that will put them in bad field position. No doubt the Bears are a superior defense, but for fantasy purposes I don't think they're a must start.

 

[KCC]

The answer depends a lot on your scoring system, which seems to vary more for defenses than for other fantasy positions. In my league, Chicago is the number one defense in terms of total fantasy points, so if they aren't a "must start" than no defense is.