Is the (Ray) Rice cooked? (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

I don't watch the Ravens games much so I am looking at stats and I know, that can be misleading, so I am just asking...is this guy cooked?

 

[BrotherEsau]

I saw a little of the last game, and it looks like it to me. He insists that he is not injured. The line sucks, but he looks slow. I guess it's a combination of line, slowness and a stupid coasc that gives him <15 touches a game. (Then again, maybe the coach knows he's slow and sucks?)

 

[Arizona Ron]

If you have him, it's not going to be easy to trade him and benching him in most leagues isn't possible.

 

[donkshow]

Benching him for Bush and Stacy until he puts up back to back startable numbers or Stacy sucks it up.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm benching him for Kendall Wright! That's how far he has dropped. Not completely his fault:

Terrible OL, mediocre WRs, no TE, overpaid QB.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think he's lost a half step. Not a preciptious falloff, but with the OL being an absolute mess of a unit, it's enough that it makes him a very pedestrian RB. He still has the excellent vision he always had. He still can pop through a tight window. But the breakaway ability to weave through tackes without getting arm tackled is lost. If he can be touched, he can be brought down. He used to be able to defy getting tackled in the scrum. Those days are over.

 

[zamboni]

Terrible OL, mediocre WRs, no TE, overpaid QB.

They've had the same QB and mediocre WRs, so that hasn't changed. TE I'll give you, since it's made the passing game more predictable and teams can sell out the run.

I think it's mainly the OL, and perhaps the wear and tear is catching up to Rice. It may be just a subtle amount of wear and tear, but enough to make the difference between a guy that can create a lot on his own and one that needs a crease for big gains.

 

[althepostman]

Benching Him For Fjax. his Contract comes Off My Books In Dynasty Next Year And I'm Planning on Going Elsewhere For My rb Needs.

 

[Krilons Resa]

Anybody try trading him away? What kind of guys are you getting for him?

 

[BrotherEsau]

I should clarify - I'm benching him until something changes and I see at least 2 decent games. I have shopped him around. No one wants him. I am lucky enough to have Miller, Stacy, Fjax and Vereen. And I'm in 1st place and have been winning despite him.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I have offered him in numerous trades in a redraft and have been roundly turned down. Frankly I have started him for every week I thought he was healthy and have been rewarded with squadoosh. This will be the last week he is in my lineup even if I cannot trade him away. Why wait a week? Because despite acquiring Andre Brown and Shane Vereen off of waivers several weeks ago I can't plug either in until they are either healthy for one week or off of their bye.

What offers have been refused?

Rice and Emmanuel Sanders for Woodhead and Sidney Rice (before he was injured)

Rice and Wallace and Witten for Lacy and Amendola (this was offered when Amendola was still injured)

Rice and Kendall Wright for Gio and Hopkins

Rice and Kendall Wright for LeVeon Bell and Dobson

Rice and Witten for Graham (this guy has Joique Bell and Bilal Powell as his starters with McFadden injured)

 

[doyler]

Traded Ryan/Rice/Dobson to a NE homer with Rodgers/Vick as his QBs for Marshall and Foster...can't complain at all.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Rice is the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense and has played in 18,18,18 and 20 games over the past 4 seasons. Keep in mind that he also has an additional 200+ touches against playoff defenses over this period of time.

 

[unckeyherb]

Anybody try trading him away? What kind of guys are you getting for him?

I packaged him with Romo (I have Rivers) to get Andre Johnson 2 days ago. I have Lacy/Stacy/Vereen/SJax/JStewart so was able to part with him pretty easily. My WR corps is now VJax, Antonio Brown and Andre. No brainer move and glad I got something for him honestly.

ETA: I should clarify that this was a trade with a panicky Rodgers owner (with no backup). The trade was really Romo for Andre, TBH.

Ray Rice, sadly, was nothing more than a throw-in to get the deal done. That is where is value lies at this point.

 

[Shutout]

Thanks for the replies so far everyone. I kind of had the idea that he had fallen but not to the degree in some of your trades.

 

[Krilons Resa]

Would you guys rather have Ridley?

 

[Hendo]

It's not just rice but people are not going to give much for RB's with a lot of mileage on them anymore. I'm seeing Lacy, Stacy and Gio being the gold standard now in many of my leagues not just in dyno's which seems like a change from seasons past

 

[shader]

It's not just rice but people are not going to give much for RB's with a lot of mileage on them anymore. I'm seeing Lacy, Stacy and Gio being the gold standard now in many of my leagues not just in dyno's which seems like a change from seasons past

A lot of people were burned by running backs this year. Makes for some good trading opportunities, imo.

 

[unckeyherb]

I've seen more trades in my keeper league this year than in the ten years prior.

 

[Isotopes]

Would you guys rather have Ridley?

I own Ridley currently, and if offered Rice - I would be very tempted. Actually, I would likely accept the deal. I am fearful of Shane Vereen returning and cutting into Ridley's production. I think we will see a rebound from Rice and the Ravens as a unit.

 

[humpback]

Terrible OL, mediocre WRs, no TE, overpaid QB.

They've had the same QB and mediocre WRs, so that hasn't changed. TE I'll give you, since it's made the passing game more predictable and teams can sell out the run.

I think it's mainly the OL, and perhaps the wear and tear is catching up to Rice. It may be just a subtle amount of wear and tear, but enough to make the difference between a guy that can create a lot on his own and one that needs a crease for big gains.

Don't forget Boldin, that's been a big loss for them. He led the team in receiving the last 3 years.

 

[humpback]

Rice is the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense and has played in 18,18,18 and 20 games over the past 4 seasons. Keep in mind that he also has an additional 200+ touches against playoff defenses over this period of time.

He also had something like 950 touches in 3 college seasons (over 400 in his final one).

 

[Dizzy]

Rice is the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense and has played in 18,18,18 and 20 games over the past 4 seasons. Keep in mind that he also has an additional 200+ touches against playoff defenses over this period of time.

He also had something like 950 touches in 3 college seasons (over 400 in his final one).

Yeah, gets into that whole RB tread life that seems to cause some to have a steep drop-off. I was amazed at how fast it happened to Shaun Alexander... he insisted he was fine too (like Rice recently stated). I guess if you feel the need to say it...

I traded Percy for Rice a couple weeks back and I'm having buyer's regret.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Cam Cameron has always made RBs look great. To me, losing him is bigger than any other factor in Rice looking like crap.

 

[donkshow]

Buy low in dynasty, sell in redraft?

That's what I am thinking..

 

[Adam Harstad]

No, but the (Sidney) Rice is.

I think he's lost a half step. Not a preciptious falloff, but with the OL being an absolute mess of a unit, it's enough that it makes him a very pedestrian RB. He still has the excellent vision he always had. He still can pop through a tight window. But the breakaway ability to weave through tackes without getting arm tackled is lost. If he can be touched, he can be brought down. He used to be able to defy getting tackled in the scrum. Those days are over.

Okay, bad jokes aside, I'm just going to go ahead and agree with this. I don't even think Rice has lost much breakaway ability (he never had a ton to begin with, and I haven't really seen him get many breakaway opportunities this year to compare). Ray Rice used to have this wicked lateral jump-cut that always let him get extra yards beyond what was blocked, though, and I just haven't seen him take it out of the barn yet this year. Like some others, I wonder if he's less healthy than he's been letting on.

There's nothing at all scientific to this, but I sort of feel like when a back drops off the cliff due to age/workload, he keeps trying to do the things that always worked for him before, it's just they no longer work for him anymore. See Chris Johnson for a great example- he keeps trying to get the corner, and three years ago he would have made it easily, but today he just can't do it anymore. When a back stops going to something that has always been a staple of his game, I usually start wondering about his health before I start wondering about his age. Again, not really anything scientific to it, just something anecdotal that I sometimes consider because it makes intuitive sense, (not that making intuitive sense is any guarantee that it's right). Is that enough disclaimers yet?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Would you guys rather have Ridley?

I would.

 

[Ladsud]

Rice is the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense and has played in 18,18,18 and 20 games over the past 4 seasons. Keep in mind that he also has an additional 200+ touches against playoff defenses over this period of time.

He also had something like 950 touches in 3 college seasons (over 400 in his final one).

2009-2012 with the playoffs included he has averaged 402 touches a year, 324 carries and 78 receptions per year average.

 

[Dizzy]

Would you guys rather have Ridley?

I would.

Oh yeah, me too.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Rice is the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense and has played in 18,18,18 and 20 games over the past 4 seasons. Keep in mind that he also has an additional 200+ touches against playoff defenses over this period of time.

He also had something like 950 touches in 3 college seasons (over 400 in his final one).

2009-2012 with the playoffs included he has averaged 402 touches a year, 324 carries and 78 receptions per year average.

That's an awesome stat, but I'm not a fan of attributing decline to workload. It seems like workload has no effect on a player, until it does. Rice's college workload was huge, but he was fine in his first two seasons. Rice's workload was huge in 2009, but he was fine in 2010. Rice's workload was huge again in 2010, but he was fine again in 2011. Rice's workload was huge in 2011, but he was fine in 2012. Rice's workload was huge in 2012, and he struggled in 2013. Conclusion... his workload is to blame?

I think it's telling that Bernard Pierce has fallen off just as much, despite no workload issues. I think it's telling that, in the midst of that massive 4-year workload stretch, Rice appeared on the injury report just 7 times, 6 of them as probable (the other as questionable; he played). If that workload has been wearing him down for years, why haven't we seen signs of it for years? Why was he completely fine through all of it, only to suddenly and without any warning fall all the way off all at once?

I think workload gets blamed for more declines than it's actually responsible for, and with Rice, I'd begin my search elsewhere. If I were pointing fingers, I'd start with his line, and then finish up by wondering just how well he's really recovered from his earlier hip injury. Because of that, I think Rice makes a decent buy in dynasty leagues right now. If it really is his workload catching up to him, you'll probably get killed by trading for him, but I think his prices have fallen cheap enough that I'd be willing to take that risk.

 

[Raider Nation]

This may shed a bit of light:

It was a rare occasion where everybody was in sync and nearly everything went as planned.

On the Ravens' first running play in Sunday's loss to the Cleveland Browns, their offensive linemen fired off the line of scrimmage and rolled left in unison, as if they were tied together with string.

Left guard A.Q. Shipley and center Gino Gradkowski latched onto a pair of Browns defensive linemen and took them for a ride. To their right, guard Marshal Yanda sealed off a linebacker. All that prevented running back Ray Rice from reaching the open field was a missed cut block by right tackle Michael Oher on the back side of the play.

The zone run went for 5 yards. It would be Rice's longest gain of the afternoon and was the first of many missed opportunities for the Ravens, who rushed for just 55 yards on 21 carries in the game.

The Ravens have used zone runs since John Harbaugh was hired as coach in 2008, and the frequency rose after they signed fullback Vonta Leach in 2011. But with Rice and fellow running back Bernard Pierce running in place this season, the zone scheme has been scrutinized.

While the Ravens have tinkered with their scheme under new run game coordinator Juan Castillo, who was hired in January, they have been building a zone-blocking running game over the past few years that relies on precision as much as it does power.

"We've been an inside and outside zone team since we got here," Harbaugh said. "When you run this offense, the zone plays are the base plays that you run. And most every team in the league that's running this offense is running those same plays, and we've just got to get good enough to run them well. We've got the guys who can do it."

Zone blocking is a basic concept used by most, if not all, NFL teams to some degree.

Instead of blocking assigned defenders, the offensive linemen and tight ends move together in the direction of the run. Each one blocks any defender who crosses his path, sometimes with the help of another lineman. If possible, he slips off his block and heads downfield to make another.

"It's really not a difficult concept," NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell said. "You need your offensive line to move in total synchronization. We always joke and say it's elephants on parade. What you're attempting to do is stretch the front side, or play side — the direction in which the play is going — and you need to cut or seal the backside. And somewhere within that a lane will appear."

There are two kinds of zone runs, the inside zone and outside zone, and they work in tandem. On inside zone runs, the blockers knock defenders backward to open lanes between the tackles. On outside zone runs, they move laterally to stretch the defense toward one sideline.

In 2011, Rice, often running behind Leach on inside and outside zone plays, set career highs with 1,364 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Last season, he earned a second straight Pro Bowl invitation with 1,143 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

This season, though, Rice and the Ravens have been nowhere near as successful. They rank last in the NFL with an average of 2.78 yards per carry. According to ESPN, they are on pace to finish with the lowest average since the 1953 New York Giants. Rice has just 259 rushing yards, Pierce 230.

"We've tried different things, but at the same time, it's still the same thing," Rice said. "It's not a different scheme. It's not a different offense. We're running an offense that fits our personnel right now."

In recent years, the Ravens have drafted linemen they felt had the athleticism and lateral quickness to steer defensive linemen toward the sideline or seal off linebackers at the second level.

In the past, Rice displayed the patience and vision the zone scheme requires, along with the balance, loose hips and quickness needed to abruptly change directions and shoot through a hole when it opened. So did Pierce, who was drafted in 2012 because he fit the scheme.

And Cosell said Leach is as good as there is in the league in terms of anticipating where lanes will open on zone runs.

So who or what is to blame? Is it the schemes? Is it the running backs? Is it the blockers?

"Everybody wants one answer to these kinds of questions, and there is never one answer," Cosell said.

The zone-blocking scheme hasn't changed drastically since Castillo took charge of the running game this offseason, but there have been tweaks. The Ravens have used more outside stretch runs, but the backs have been bottled up and the gains minimal.

Last month, some linemen, including offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie, who has since been traded to the Miami Dolphins, privately voiced concerns about the changes, according to sources. And on his way out of town, McKinnie was outspoken in his criticism of Castillo, saying, "Juan wants it done his way," and that "everything should be running more smoothly."

The offensive linemen have often gotten little push on the front side of plays, and they have had trouble sealing off the backside, denying the running backs opportunities to cut back against the grain for long gains. Tight ends Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark, who are not known for their blocking, have been getting knocked back or down to the ground on the edges.

Rice and Pierce, who have both dealt with lower-body injuries, have been indecisive at times and haven't always hit holes.

Injuries also are a factor; starting left guard Kelechi Osemele is out for the season and will have back surgery, while Yanda has not been as dominant after offseason shoulder surgery.

"The issue is that [defenses] have been playing more downhill and they have been hurt by penetration," Cosell said. "They haven't responded to it well. Combine that with the fact that I think Rice is not running with the same balance and lateral explosion that he has had in the past and I think that's a recipe for a poor running game, which is what has it been."

Cosell said that when defenders shoot into gaps to stop zone runs, offenses must go to different types of running plays in their arsenal, such as power runs with double-team blocking, to exploit their aggressiveness. But other types of running plays have not been working for the Ravens, either.

In recent weeks, the Ravens have used more single-back formations and experimented with zone runs out of the pistol formation in the 24-18 loss to the Browns. Regardless of the formation, for the Ravens to replicate the kind of success they had with zone runs in years past, they need the blockers to work together and execute.

"We just need to focus on doing on our job and not worry about anything else. And we're not," Yanda said. "The good thing is that everybody understands that if we all do our job at a high level, we'll be fine, just as it has always been. Keep our heads down and just freaking roll."

 

[humpback]

That's an awesome stat, but I'm not a fan of attributing decline to workload. It seems like workload has no effect on a player, until it does. Rice's college workload was huge, but he was fine in his first two seasons. Rice's workload was huge in 2009, but he was fine in 2010. Rice's workload was huge again in 2010, but he was fine again in 2011. Rice's workload was huge in 2011, but he was fine in 2012. Rice's workload was huge in 2012, and he struggled in 2013. Conclusion... his workload is to blame?

I think it's telling that Bernard Pierce has fallen off just as much, despite no workload issues. I think it's telling that, in the midst of that massive 4-year workload stretch, Rice appeared on the injury report just 7 times, 6 of them as probable (the other as questionable; he played). If that workload has been wearing him down for years, why haven't we seen signs of it for years? Why was he completely fine through all of it, only to suddenly and without any warning fall all the way off all at once?

I think workload gets blamed for more declines than it's actually responsible for, and with Rice, I'd begin my search elsewhere. If I were pointing fingers, I'd start with his line, and then finish up by wondering just how well he's really recovered from his earlier hip injury. Because of that, I think Rice makes a decent buy in dynasty leagues right now. If it really is his workload catching up to him, you'll probably get killed by trading for him, but I think his prices have fallen cheap enough that I'd be willing to take that risk.

I don't think anyone is saying that his workload is the reason for the decline, but it certainly seems to be a factor. Sure he was fine after a ton of touches early in his career, but he was also in his early 20's then. These things accumulate, and injuries become more difficult to recover from, as you age and take more abuse. I'd also argue that we saw some signs of decline last season- he still was good, but had a drop off in pretty much every metric vs. 2011.

There are several factors for the drop off IMO, but workload is probably the one that worries me the most because it's irreversible. However, I would still buy if the price was right- I think he can still be productive if the other factors improve, I just don't think he's going to be able to create as much on his own as he has in the past.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

whoa whoa whoa

The name Juan Castillo is all I needed to see, wasnt he coaching the Philly D or something under Andy Ried.

I know before that he was an offensive coach

Maybe its him that sucks

 

[T.Rex]

Ray is fine you don't see a decline at his age overnight.

Zone blocking and Castillo is the correct answer.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

That's an awesome stat, but I'm not a fan of attributing decline to workload. It seems like workload has no effect on a player, until it does. Rice's college workload was huge, but he was fine in his first two seasons. Rice's workload was huge in 2009, but he was fine in 2010. Rice's workload was huge again in 2010, but he was fine again in 2011. Rice's workload was huge in 2011, but he was fine in 2012. Rice's workload was huge in 2012, and he struggled in 2013. Conclusion... his workload is to blame?

I think it's telling that Bernard Pierce has fallen off just as much, despite no workload issues. I think it's telling that, in the midst of that massive 4-year workload stretch, Rice appeared on the injury report just 7 times, 6 of them as probable (the other as questionable; he played). If that workload has been wearing him down for years, why haven't we seen signs of it for years? Why was he completely fine through all of it, only to suddenly and without any warning fall all the way off all at once?

I think workload gets blamed for more declines than it's actually responsible for, and with Rice, I'd begin my search elsewhere. If I were pointing fingers, I'd start with his line, and then finish up by wondering just how well he's really recovered from his earlier hip injury. Because of that, I think Rice makes a decent buy in dynasty leagues right now. If it really is his workload catching up to him, you'll probably get killed by trading for him, but I think his prices have fallen cheap enough that I'd be willing to take that risk.

I don't think anyone is saying that his workload is the reason for the decline, but it certainly seems to be a factor. Sure he was fine after a ton of touches early in his career, but he was also in his early 20's then. These things accumulate, and injuries become more difficult to recover from, as you age and take more abuse. I'd also argue that we saw some signs of decline last season- he still was good, but had a drop off in pretty much every metric vs. 2011.

There are several factors for the drop off IMO, but workload is probably the one that worries me the most because it's irreversible. However, I would still buy if the price was right- I think he can still be productive if the other factors improve, I just don't think he's going to be able to create as much on his own as he has in the past.

His college total touches was 947. For comparison, I randomly picked 5 starter backs from the FBG pre-season rankings.

Jonathan Stewart - 565

Arian Foster - 733

Adrian Peterson - 771

Montae Ball - 983

CJ Spiller - 729

While on the higher-end, his workload wasn't disproportional y higher than the ~750 touch average for starting college RBs.

 

[humpback]

That's an awesome stat, but I'm not a fan of attributing decline to workload. It seems like workload has no effect on a player, until it does. Rice's college workload was huge, but he was fine in his first two seasons. Rice's workload was huge in 2009, but he was fine in 2010. Rice's workload was huge again in 2010, but he was fine again in 2011. Rice's workload was huge in 2011, but he was fine in 2012. Rice's workload was huge in 2012, and he struggled in 2013. Conclusion... his workload is to blame?

I think it's telling that Bernard Pierce has fallen off just as much, despite no workload issues. I think it's telling that, in the midst of that massive 4-year workload stretch, Rice appeared on the injury report just 7 times, 6 of them as probable (the other as questionable; he played). If that workload has been wearing him down for years, why haven't we seen signs of it for years? Why was he completely fine through all of it, only to suddenly and without any warning fall all the way off all at once?

I think workload gets blamed for more declines than it's actually responsible for, and with Rice, I'd begin my search elsewhere. If I were pointing fingers, I'd start with his line, and then finish up by wondering just how well he's really recovered from his earlier hip injury. Because of that, I think Rice makes a decent buy in dynasty leagues right now. If it really is his workload catching up to him, you'll probably get killed by trading for him, but I think his prices have fallen cheap enough that I'd be willing to take that risk.

I don't think anyone is saying that his workload is the reason for the decline, but it certainly seems to be a factor. Sure he was fine after a ton of touches early in his career, but he was also in his early 20's then. These things accumulate, and injuries become more difficult to recover from, as you age and take more abuse. I'd also argue that we saw some signs of decline last season- he still was good, but had a drop off in pretty much every metric vs. 2011.

There are several factors for the drop off IMO, but workload is probably the one that worries me the most because it's irreversible. However, I would still buy if the price was right- I think he can still be productive if the other factors improve, I just don't think he's going to be able to create as much on his own as he has in the past.

His college total touches was 947. For comparison, I randomly picked 5 starter backs from the FBG pre-season rankings.

Jonathan Stewart - 565

Arian Foster - 733

Adrian Peterson - 771

Montae Ball - 983

CJ Spiller - 729

While on the higher-end, his workload wasn't disproportional y higher than the ~750 touch average for starting college RBs.

Well, 947 is 26% more than 750, and he did that in only 3 seasons (Foster, Ball, and Spiller from your list played 4, for instance). I'd say that's significant, and the difference only increases when you add in the NFL workload.

Probably no way to verify, but I doubt anyone in the NFL has had as many touches as Rice has over the first 8 years of their combined college/NFL careers. I also doubt if there are many who are even close.

 

[The General]

Baltimore's Oline is terrible and Rice is slower this year for sure. He has no burst. Their schedule is not good.

It's gotten to the point where it feels like his only realistic hope for getting a TD is a pass interference call in the endzone.

Oh yeah and they give Pierce carries too.

I'd sell for almost anything you can get in a redraft.

In a dynasty I'd probably hold out for a little more in hopes there is a bounce back next year.

 

[cubbie5150]

Baltimore's Oline is terrible and Rice is slower this year for sure. He has no burst. Their schedule is not good.

It's gotten to the point where it feels like his only realistic hope for getting a TD is a pass interference call in the endzone.

Oh yeah and they give Pierce carries too.

I'd sell for almost anything you can get in a redraft.

In a dynasty I'd probably hold out for a little more in hopes there is a bounce back next year.

He has 3 TDs, & if my recollection is correct he's gotten one courtesy of a punt retun fumble inside the 5 week 1 & his other 2 came @ Mia compliments of 2 PI calls in the endzone. So yeah...

 

[grateful zed]

rice is the only weapon baltimore has so the other teams stop him.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Emmitt Smith had 1,840 touches, including the playoffs, from '91 to '94 (i.e., an average of 460 per year), and then had one of the best fantasy seasons ever in 1995.

 

[Pipes]

Emmitt Smith had 1,840 touches, including the playoffs, from '91 to '94 (i.e., an average of 460 per year), and then had one of the best fantasy seasons ever in 1995.

He also had one of the best offensive lines ever opening holes for him.

 

[rjv]

He is beginning to resemble Alexander when he was in his downfall

 

[Adam Harstad]

Emmitt Smith had 1,840 touches, including the playoffs, from '91 to '94 (i.e., an average of 460 per year), and then had one of the best fantasy seasons ever in 1995.

Yeah, that's the problem with the workload theory, in my mind. Every time a back has a terrible season following a high workload, it gets added to the "workload matters!" evidence. Every time a back has a massive season following a high workload, it gets... ignored completely. Given time, is it really surprising that the evidence suggesting workload matters starts mounting up, when we ignore all the instances where workload didn't matter?

It's like Tony Romo and the "can't win big games" perception. If Tony Romo loses a game, it's proof that he can't win big games. If Tony Romo wins a game, it's proof that it wasn't a big game, and therefore doesn't matter when discussing whether Tony Romo can win big games. At some point, perception-wise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[NREC34]

He is cooked so far today. This is depressing.

 

[humpback]

Emmitt Smith had 1,840 touches, including the playoffs, from '91 to '94 (i.e., an average of 460 per year), and then had one of the best fantasy seasons ever in 1995.

Yeah, that's the problem with the workload theory, in my mind. Every time a back has a terrible season following a high workload, it gets added to the "workload matters!" evidence. Every time a back has a massive season following a high workload, it gets... ignored completely. Given time, is it really surprising that the evidence suggesting workload matters starts mounting up, when we ignore all the instances where workload didn't matter?

It's like Tony Romo and the "can't win big games" perception. If Tony Romo loses a game, it's proof that he can't win big games. If Tony Romo wins a game, it's proof that it wasn't a big game, and therefore doesn't matter when discussing whether Tony Romo can win big games. At some point, perception-wise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You don't have to ignore it to realize that It certainly appears there are far more cases of guys slipping than having massive seasons after accumulating a ton of touches, just like there are far more cases of Romo choking than of him being clutch. As for Emmitt, yes, he had a great season after he accumulated lots of touches, but that season was also his peak. His ypc dropped a full yard the very next season. In any event, he certainly seems to be an outlier.

There isn't some hard and fast rule where a RB can't be productive after "X" touches, but it seems pretty strange that some people completely dismiss it.

 

[gsmayes]

Rice wishes he had the career Alexander did.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Emmitt Smith had 1,840 touches, including the playoffs, from '91 to '94 (i.e., an average of 460 per year), and then had one of the best fantasy seasons ever in 1995.

Yeah, that's the problem with the workload theory, in my mind. Every time a back has a terrible season following a high workload, it gets added to the "workload matters!" evidence. Every time a back has a massive season following a high workload, it gets... ignored completely. Given time, is it really surprising that the evidence suggesting workload matters starts mounting up, when we ignore all the instances where workload didn't matter?

It's like Tony Romo and the "can't win big games" perception. If Tony Romo loses a game, it's proof that he can't win big games. If Tony Romo wins a game, it's proof that it wasn't a big game, and therefore doesn't matter when discussing whether Tony Romo can win big games. At some point, perception-wise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You don't have to ignore it to realize that It certainly appears there are far more cases of guys slipping than having massive seasons after accumulating a ton of touches, just like there are far more cases of Romo choking than of him being clutch. As for Emmitt, yes, he had a great season after he accumulated lots of touches, but that season was also his peak. His ypc dropped a full yard the very next season. In any event, he certainly seems to be an outlier.

There isn't some hard and fast rule where a RB can't be productive after "X" touches, but it seems pretty strange that some people completely dismiss it.

But there's not, and there's not. Tony Romo's only thrown 1 INT in a loss this season, but it's the one everyone remembers. Tony Romo has a very good record at 4th quarter comeback attempts. He has some of the best 4th quarter statistics in league history (including his statistics from 1-score games in the 4th quarter). He's had some pretty flipping epic comebacks, like that time he broke a rib, sat out a quarter, watched his backup stake the other team to a two-score lead, then came back into the game (still with a cracked rib) and pulled off the comeback. It only SEEMS like there are more instances of Romo choking because that's the narrative, and because everyone talks about his "chokes" while ignoring his "clutch" moments, until it eventually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Similarly, it only SEEMS like backs are more likely to break down coming off of a high workload. Ray Rice had a high workload in four consecutive seasons, yet this is the only time he's broken down. Shaun Alexander exceeded 370 touches in three consecutive seasons, but people only talk about that last one. Terrell Davis had FIVE HUNDRED THIRTY ONE touches, and he came back the next year and blew out his knee. No, wait, sorry... he came back the next year and rushed for 2,000 yards, it was the year AFTER that when he blew out his knee. LaDainian Tomlinson had 451, 413, 427, 390, and 429 touches over a 5-year stretch, and was completely fine for all of them. He followed it up with a 410 touch season and yet another 1st team AP All Pro award.

There are tons and tons and tons of examples of guys getting 380, 400, or even more touches and coming back completely fine the next year. Even doing it several years in a row. You just don't hear those examples because they don't fit the narrative of how backs break down after getting a huge workload.

If you just keep predicting "he had a huge workload last year, so he's going to break down this year", eventually you will be right. You'll usually be wrong a lot of times first, though. It's like the guys who projected that age would catch up to Marvin Harrison every year starting at age 32. Sure, eventually they were right, and age caught up to Marvin, and he was done. Not before he put up another 5th place, 9th place, and 1st place fantasy finish first, though.

 

[Judge Smails]

He looked very bad today. He also looked like he had zero chance to succeed. Man, just goes to show how much O-Line and running schemes matter. Affects the whole freakin' offense. Can't run, can't play action, running game sucks, and Flacco and passing game sucks too. Flacco looks like the worst 100M QB ever. Next to Eli.

 

[Shutout]

Since the time I asked this question I have started paying more attnetion to what people in leagues are doing with him and I was (kinda) shocked yesterday that he was not started in any league I play in, yesterday. He was benched in favor of FJAX, Andre Ellington, DWIL, and the likes.

That is a pretty powerful perception among fantasy folks. Reminds me a bit of Larry Fitzgerald last year. Big name with proven production but the wholeness of the situation just led people to pretty much pretend he didn't exist anymore.

 

[Sabertooth]

Interesting Shutout. I looked in my leagues and he was benched in 3 of 4. Benched in favore of the likes of Pierre Thomas and Danny Woodhead. That's why they call it the wall I guess.