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Is there a clear #1 this year (1 Viewer)

J

JAMMIN

Footballguy
It looks like picking number one this year may not be easy. I can't beleive someone is going to be able to pluck one of these studs at #3. All three of these guys could be drafted first since they have unlimited potential. Each also have a question mark or two. LJ - Has not handled an entire season of touches and has hands of stone. LT- New QB will they stack the line. SA- Lost Hutch and no more $$$ to shoot for. My rankings would go:

LJ- Could be a fantasy king for many years to come.

LT- Would love to put him #1 since he is dual threat

SA- Had the highest point total in most leagues last year.

Any other thoughts.

 
Yes, LJ.

In my very biased opinion, I think Portis finishes above LT and SA this year. However, since no one is crazy enough to pick him #2, I'd say the best value is picking at 4.

 
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My rankings are:

1. Alexander

2. Johnson

3. Tomlinson

However, the #1 spot is void of conviction. I could quite easily take Johnson at that spot, and, if the "worst came to the worst", I could take Tomlinson there, too.

I concur with the above poster and believe Portis is going to be great value, either at #4 or as late as #5 overall. I'd sooner select him there than a running back at #1. My ideal scenario would be to have the #3 pick and hope that Tomlinson is taken #1 or #2, leaving me either Johnson or Alexander. To be safe, I'd love the #2 pick so I could take whoever doesn't go #1; Johnson or Alexander.

 
30 Different people will have 10 different opinions. Personal preference.
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It's not to speak against your point (which is completely valid), but I'd bet that there's a more concise split than that.Poll 100 people, and, in my opinion, I think the results are 40/40/20 - Johnson/Alexander/Tomlinson.

Maybe even more in favor of Johnson from what I am reading, for example 50/30/20.

 
In a reception league, i'd say Tomlinson is the best. In normal scoring systems, I think the general majority is Johnson.

 
In a reception league, i'd say Tomlinson is the best. In normal scoring systems, I think the general majority is Johnson.
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LJ had 27 catches in his 10 games as a starter. That works out to 43 over a full season. Tomlinson had 51 receptions last year. IMO, if you like one or the other, receptions should not enter into it as a big differentiator.
 
In a reception league, i'd say Tomlinson is the best. In normal scoring systems, I think the general majority is Johnson.
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LJ had 27 catches in his 10 games as a starter. That works out to 43 over a full season. Tomlinson had 51 receptions last year. IMO, if you like one or the other, receptions should not enter into it as a big differentiator.
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I think LT could be due for a substantial increase this season -- he's lobbying for more catches (they've been declining the last few seasons), plus he could be a decent security blanket for Rivers to dump off to.
 
Maybe I'm blind, but I don't know why such a large portion of the Fantasy Football world is so confident LJ is the clear cut number 1.

He had a great season last year, but it was still only one season. LT and SA have been doing it for a few years now. He could very well end up leading the league in every rushing category, but he could just as well end up the tenth best back whereas you know LT and SA will be top five.

Does anyone really want the number one pick this year?

 
Maybe I'm blind, but I don't know why such a large portion of the Fantasy Football world is so confident LJ is the clear cut number 1. He had a great season last year, but it was still only one season.
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how many seasons has LJ had the opportunity to put up stud-like numbers? onehow many seaons has LJ been a stud? oneevery stud's legacy must start somewhere
 
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In a reception league, i'd say Tomlinson is the best. In normal scoring systems, I think the general majority is Johnson.
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LJ had 27 catches in his 10 games as a starter. That works out to 43 over a full season. Tomlinson had 51 receptions last year. IMO, if you like one or the other, receptions should not enter into it as a big differentiator.
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Tomlinson will receive around 65-75 passes this upcoming season. When Brees developed as a passer, he starting throwing towards the receivers rather than Tomlinson. With Rivers, he will either throw to Gates or Tomlinson, he wont throw to the Receivers as much as Brees did.
 
Maybe I'm blind, but I don't know why such a large portion of the Fantasy Football world is so confident LJ is the clear cut number 1.
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What "such large portion"? At a stretch, I think 60% of people would take Johnson #1. That's hardly a dominant portion of the fantasy football world. It's probably not even that high a figure.
but he could just as well end up the tenth best back whereas you know LT and SA will be top five.
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I don't agree with this concept.Johnson may end up as the tenth best back; and so may Tomlinson, or even Alexander. Tomlinson and Alexander, by default, have proven to be 'more' consistent, but as someone else mentioned, a legacy starts somewhere.
 
In a reception league, i'd say Tomlinson is the best. In normal scoring systems, I think the general majority is Johnson.
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LJ had 27 catches in his 10 games as a starter. That works out to 43 over a full season. Tomlinson had 51 receptions last year. IMO, if you like one or the other, receptions should not enter into it as a big differentiator.
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Tomlinson will receive around 65-75 passes this upcoming season. When Brees developed as a passer, he starting throwing towards the receivers rather than Tomlinson. With Rivers, he will either throw to Gates or Tomlinson, he wont throw to the Receivers as much as Brees did.
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From all I've read, Rivers game is more downfield than Brees. Brees relied mostly on short routes and dump offs (especially when he was starting out). Maybe LT gets 60 recptions this year again, but LJ could also get 50. Some people make it out like LT = 100 receptions, LJ = 15 receptions.

As for those that are saying LJ has only done it for less than a full season, the starting RB for KC has been elite as long as LT and SA have been.

 
no there is no clear #1, but there is a clear cut 1 through 3 (SA, LT, LJ).

sorry for the high-jack, but what about the next tier?

Portis, Barber, James, Jackson, Jordan, ???

To answer the question, I'd go LT #1 in just about any format except TD only.

 
no there is no clear #1, but there is a clear cut 1 through 3 (SA, LT, LJ).

sorry for the high-jack, but what about the next tier?

Portis, Barber, James, Jackson, Jordan, ???

To answer the question, I'd go LT #1 in just about any format except TD only.
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LJLT

SA

Portis

Barber

rest of the first rounders/turn backs.

then you have your Dillon/Lewis/Dunn/etc tier

 
Yes, LJ.

In my very biased opinion, I think Portis finishes above LT and SA this year. However, since no one is crazy enough to pick him #2, I'd say the best value is picking at 4.
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I have Portis ranked #2 and will pick him there if I have the second pick (unless LT is there who I have #1)
 
Interesting too, since FBG staff rankings the last 7 days have LT moving in front of LJ for the first time this off-season.

The two have been close, but LT just passed him, barely.

 
I agree with a majority here. There is no clear #1. I would personally take LJ, but "to each their own". Most people would agree that it would be great having any of the 3.

 
In the couple dozen mock drafts I've participated in. LJ went in all but two of them (LT).

While it may not be crystal clear between LJ/LT.. SA is certainly not in the argument.

 
I agree, there appears to be no #1 guy, just the Three Amigos. We just slotted draft spots and I was lucky enough to snag #3. To me this is perfect, as I have yet to develop strong feelings for any and think they all could finish #1RB, so I have no problem with two other guys basically making my pick for me.

Though I have to say, as of now, if I had #1 I would take LJ. I know its just one season, well like 12 games or whatever, but he was beyond a stud. Not even Herm can screw him up.

 
I think you have to go Larry Johnson - the risk/reward is just too great. Its like playing poker and you've got 3 Kings ........ you gotta play those bad boys

LT2 might be huge this year - give him the ball, take the pressure off Rivers.

Alexander IMO won't be as studly. Very good - but not LT2 / LJ studly

 
In a reception league, i'd say Tomlinson is the best. In normal scoring systems, I think the general majority is Johnson.
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LJ had 27 catches in his 10 games as a starter. That works out to 43 over a full season. Tomlinson had 51 receptions last year. IMO, if you like one or the other, receptions should not enter into it as a big differentiator.
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I think LT could be due for a substantial increase this season -- he's lobbying for more catches (they've been declining the last few seasons), plus he could be a decent security blanket for Rivers to dump off to.
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blah blah blah - not falling for that pre-season BS again. The problem is friggin Marty and/or the OC. (actually I don't recall - do they even have an OC or is he it?) They just don't like doing the LT swing passes for some bizarro reason.Long as I can get one of those 3. And thanks to the format of auctions, I probably will. :)

 
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Anyone point out who Alexander and Johnson play in weeks 15 & 16 this year?
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No and thx for bringing it up then not telling us :rolleyes: Wks 14-16 for all 3 FYI. Sort of a mixed bag.

LT:

DEN

KC

@ SEA

LJ:

BAL

@ SD

@ OAK

SA:

@ AZ

SF

SD

 
Anyone point out who Alexander and Johnson play in weeks 15 & 16 this year?
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No and thx for bringing it up then not telling us :rolleyes: Wks 14-16 for all 3 FYI. Sort of a mixed bag.

LT:

DEN

KC

@ SEA

LJ:

BAL

@ SD

@ OAK

SA:

@ AZ

SF

SD
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I'd say that SA clearly has the best schedule of the 3.
 
Do people not realize that LJ's -coord is now in Washington and his head coach is not even in the league. His qb is older, his wr's still stink, his te is not what he once was? While LJ was a stud last year he will be the guy every defense focuses on. Who is to say LJ can do it for a full year. His line is still great (old but still great). There are a lot of reasons to like LJ but there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical too. I think LT2 is the guy this year.

 
In the couple dozen mock drafts I've participated in. LJ went in all but two of them (LT).

While it may not be crystal clear between LJ/LT.. SA is certainly not in the argument.
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You realize that SA has outscored LT (and in fact, finished as the #1 RB) two years in a row, right? How can he not be in the argument? LT and LJ both had significant situational changes, SA has almost exactly the same situation he had when he led the league the past two years.
 
Do people not realize that LJ's -coord is now in Washington and his head coach is not even in the league.
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You don't need a brain surgeon (or, hey, even a "great" coordinator) to call a run left, run right, run up the gut. Stop trying to credit departed coaches with so much of Johnson's success. I mean, if you have to - at least note that the biggest contributor from the coaching staff was Mike Solari; the guy who designed all the running plays.
His qb is older, his wr's still stink, his te is not what he once was?
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You could've said the same thing at any point during last season. It mattered none.
While LJ was a stud last year he will be the guy every defense focuses on.
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They did that last year.You know, a fossil of a quarterback, stinky wide receivers and a tight end who wasn't what he once was will do that to a gameplan.

Who is to say LJ can do it for a full year.
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Who is to say that Johnson can't rush for 1750 yards and 20+ touchdowns in half a year of full-time running?You know, he didn't "do it for a full year" last year; and guess what - it didn't matter.

 
Do people not realize that LJ's -coord is now in Washington and his head coach is not even in the league. His qb is older, his wr's still stink, his te is not what he once was? While LJ was a stud last year he will be the guy every defense focuses on. Who is to say LJ can do it for a full year. His line is still great (old but still great). There are a lot of reasons to like LJ but there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical too. I think LT2 is the guy this year.
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:goodposting: my thoughts also. If not LT, I might be more comfortable with Portis or Barber, even if their upside isn't as strong.
 
You don't need a brain surgeon (or, hey, even a "great" coordinator) to call a run left, run right, run up the gut. Stop trying to credit departed coaches with so much of Johnson's success. I mean, if you have to - at least note that the biggest contributor from the coaching staff was Mike Solari; the guy who designed all the running plays.
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I don't think anyone is expecting LJ to be unsuccessful, but to be the #1 RB, to score in the neighberhood of 20 TDs, requires more than success; it requires committment from the coaching staff to feeding you the ball in the red zone. From 2002-2004, Gonzalez averaged 22 red zone targets, 14 red zone receptions, and 5 red zone TDs. In 2005, he had 12 red zone targets, 5 receptions, 1 TD. In 2005, Larry Johnson had 65 red zone rushes and 6 red zone targets. Priest Holmes never had that many red zone rushes or targets.

It is very likely that LJ will have fewer red zone rushes and targets in 2006 than he did in 2005; that will affect his TD numbers.

 
You don't need a brain surgeon (or, hey, even a "great" coordinator) to call a run left, run right, run up the gut. Stop trying to credit departed coaches with so much of Johnson's success. I mean, if you have to - at least note that the biggest contributor from the coaching staff was Mike Solari; the guy who designed all the running plays.
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I don't think anyone is expecting LJ to be unsuccessful, but to be the #1 RB, to score in the neighberhood of 20 TDs, requires more than success; it requires committment from the coaching staff to feeding you the ball in the red zone. From 2002-2004, Gonzalez averaged 22 red zone targets, 14 red zone receptions, and 5 red zone TDs. In 2005, he had 12 red zone targets, 5 receptions, 1 TD. In 2005, Larry Johnson had 65 red zone rushes and 6 red zone targets. Priest Holmes never had that many red zone rushes or targets.

It is very likely that LJ will have fewer red zone rushes and targets in 2006 than he did in 2005; that will affect his TD numbers.
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:yes:
 
1. LT...hard to ignore the talent or consistancy

2. LJ...changes around him and ???, but he's as close to a lock for top five as anybody.

3a. SA...does he slow down now that he got his contract? Plus, I think the whole team slips a hair from last year.

3b. CP...should find better running lanes then last year, but has a talented back behind him that will steal a few carries.

3c. Barber...consistant talent, but age may prevent him from from knocking off any of the others.

I wouldn't laugh at any of these guys going #1. The post asked if there was a clear #1...there isn't.

Strong arguments can be made for LT or LJ#1, good arguments for SA, and weaker arguments for CP or Barber. It all depends on how you read the intangibles involved.

I pick LT because I see his receptions growing a little. :football:

 
You don't need a brain surgeon (or, hey, even a "great" coordinator) to call a run left, run right, run up the gut. Stop trying to credit departed coaches with so much of Johnson's success. I mean, if you have to - at least note that the biggest contributor from the coaching staff was Mike Solari; the guy who designed all the running plays.
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I don't think anyone is expecting LJ to be unsuccessful, but to be the #1 RB, to score in the neighberhood of 20 TDs, requires more than success; it requires committment from the coaching staff to feeding you the ball in the red zone. From 2002-2004, Gonzalez averaged 22 red zone targets, 14 red zone receptions, and 5 red zone TDs. In 2005, he had 12 red zone targets, 5 receptions, 1 TD. In 2005, Larry Johnson had 65 red zone rushes and 6 red zone targets. Priest Holmes never had that many red zone rushes or targets.

It is very likely that LJ will have fewer red zone rushes and targets in 2006 than he did in 2005; that will affect his TD numbers.
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That's fine, but then what do you project for him? I still see 20 TDs (easy).
 
That's fine, but then what do you project for him? I still see 20 TDs (easy).
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This seems to be the biggest problem. 20 TDs is not easy for anyone.
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I agree, but you have to admit LJ has just as much of a chance to get 20 TD's as LT and SA.
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No I agree with you there. I would also say Portis does as well. None of them are projected to score 20 TDs by me though.
 
That's fine, but then what do you project for him? I still see 20 TDs (easy).
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This seems to be the biggest problem. 20 TDs is not easy for anyone.
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I agree, but you have to admit LJ has just as much of a chance to get 20 TD's as LT and SA.
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No I agree with you there. I would also say Portis does as well. None of them are projected to score 20 TDs by me though.
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That's fair enough. I know alot of people like to do more conservative projections. Cheifs RB's have gotten 20+ rushing TD's in 3 of the last 4 seasons. That's pretty darn good.

 
I don't think anyone is expecting LJ to be unsuccessful, but to be the #1 RB, to score in the neighberhood of 20 TDs, requires more than success; it requires committment from the coaching staff to feeding you the ball in the red zone.
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I agree. But I sense an implication that this isn't going to happen.Which wouldn't make much sense, based upon all that we've heard and seen out of Kansas City this offseason.

rom 2002-2004, Gonzalez averaged 22 red zone targets, 14 red zone receptions, and 5 red zone TDs. In 2005, he had 12 red zone targets, 5 receptions, 1 TD. In 2005, Larry Johnson had 65 red zone rushes and 6 red zone targets. Priest Holmes never had that many red zone rushes or targets.
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1.) Where did you get the numbers for Gonzalez' targets?2.) Are you suggesting that the Chiefs will shy away from Johnson in the redzone because, (a) Tony Gonzalez will bounce back and take a lot of touches from him; or (b) the Chiefs will simply not run the ball in the red zone as much (as they didn't from 2002-2004, as you pointed out)?

It is very likely that LJ will have fewer red zone rushes and targets in 2006 than he did in 2005; that will affect his TD numbers.
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If true, I concur. But I fail to see why it is "very likely" that Johnson's red zone numbers will decrease.He's going to get a similar amount of carries as he did last year; he has less competition for red zone touches than last year; and his coach puts more of an emphasis on the running game than last year's regime did.

 
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