Is there any analysis on RB1 from previous year (1 Viewer)

[JAA]

12 team PPR

On average how close is the ADP of the #1 scoring RB from the previous season to 1.01?

For example, last season Chris Johnson was the #1 scoring RB. Will his ADP for this season 1.01?

Deangelo Williams was the #1 scoring RB from the season prior. His ADP was around 1.07 this past season and was RB14.

When has the #1 scoring RB have an ADP of 1.01 the next season AND maintain his #1 ranking for that season?

Most of this analysis is about "How difficult is it to maintain RB1 scoring for RB's" However, I think introducing ADP helps introduce a human bias that will make the results more accurate.

 

[Marauder]

I don't know of any analysis done, although it probably has been done, but I would say it's pretty rare for a player to repeat just by random variance. However that doesn't mean he shouldn't be drafted #1. Chris Johnson is certainly not a favorite over the field but he is a favorite over any other individual player.

 

[Warrior]

I'm pretty certain that the #1 RB from the previous year does better on average the following year than the #2 RB does...etc. Though neither is likely to repeat, they are more likely than #3, #4, etc. etc.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't know of any analysis done, although it probably has been done, but I would say it's pretty rare for a player to repeat just by random variance. However that doesn't mean he shouldn't be drafted #1. Chris Johnson is certainly not a favorite over the field but he is a favorite over any other individual player.

I agree that that's what the #1 pick means, but I disagree that Chris Johnson should be that pick. Adrian Peterson's situation has improved from a fantasy perspective - he's finally the every down back for the team. Chris Johnson's situation has declined, and in this case it's precisely because he was the #1 back last year. I don't mean because of superstition or regression to the mean. Last year was a perfect storm for him to get 2000 yards - he had 596 yards through the first six games, all losses, as the Titans started out 0-6. At that point, there was very little for anyone on the Titans to play for. The following week, he blows up for 228 yards against the Jaguars, the Titans get their first win, and we're looking at a new rallying cry for Fisher to keep the team focused for the rest of what looks like a lost season. And sure enough, he gets at LEAST 25 carries in six of the next seven games (the Cards "held him" to 18 carries for 154 yards). That's not to say that 154 yards is easy to get. But he had 263 carries in the last 10 games of the season, including an insane 36 carries the final game of the season to get his 2000 yards. There's absolutely no way he averages 26.3 carries per game next year. He had 95 carries through the first six games, which puts him on pace for about 250 carries a season - compared to his 251 the year before. Only when the team saw him as their chance to keep fans interested did they push him for those mega carries. This year, the motivation for Johnson to put up huge numbers will still be there, but it will be lower - lower for Johnson, who just got paid, lower for Fisher, who will be more concerned about winning than getting numbers for Johnson, and lower for the line, who proved they could have that 2000 yard season. These guys all had to pull out all of the stops to make 2000 yards happen last year. It's very difficult to repeat that. There is one guy who has the motivation to do it, though, and that's Peterson. He's the #1 back in the NFL, and everyone outside of Tennessee knows it. He has something to prove, and he doesn't have Chester Taylor there to vulture third down carries. This year is probably the best chance Peterson has to get his 2000 yard season, and that team has every reason to want him to. They'll be protecting Favre a little more if he does come back, or protecting Tavaris or whatever they throw out there at QB if he doesn't. And their rookie back is a bowling ball who won't get a lot of carries but can soften Ds when he does. If you give me my choice of any player this year, it's Peterson.

 

[John 14:6]

There is one guy who has the motivation to do it, though, and that's Peterson. He's the #1 back in the NFL, and everyone outside of Tennessee knows it. He has something to prove, and he doesn't have Chester Taylor there to vulture third down carries. This year is probably the best chance Peterson has to get his 2000 yard season, and that team has every reason to want him to. They'll be protecting Favre a little more if he does come back, or protecting Tavaris or whatever they throw out there at QB if he doesn't. And their rookie back is a bowling ball who won't get a lot of carries but can soften Ds when he does. If you give me my choice of any player this year, it's Peterson.

To add to this, I heard on the radio this week that the Viking center, O'Sullivan, was playing with an injury all season. He and Steve Hutchinson both got surgeries this offseason. Hopefully added health for these two and added health for O'Sullivan and Loadholt will lead to better oline play this season.Plus, all reports are that Peterson's been working like a maniac on his fumbling problems this offseason...