Is this the year to load up on bounce-back vets? (1 Viewer)

[pollardsvision]

The past couple of seasons have had teams really nail some exciting rookie RBs and young WRs. It feels like the fantasy world is going with a youth movement b/c that's what's worked for the past 2 seasons.

I'm wondering if this isn't the year to load-up (first 6-8 rounds) on nothing, but:

1-Vets who've traditionally been reliable that had a down season and everyone thinks they are over the hill

2-Guys who've previously broken out, but seemed to take a step back in '08.

With the fantasy world tripping over themselves to get those exciting 2nd/3rd year players, this feels like a good year to get some good reliable vets at a great value. Older players often have great value, but this year seems chocked full of vets at great values.

Imagine a draft where you could conceivably do something like this (ESPN ADP in parenthesis):

Rd1: LT (8)

Rd2: Frank Gore (14) or Brian Westbrook (22) or

Rd3: Reggie Wayne if he slips (24) or Ryan Grant (35)

Rd4: Roy Williams (42)

Rd5: Chad Ochocinco(50) or Braylon Edwards (54)

Rd6: Braylon if he slips or Larry Johnson (60)

Rd7: Santonio Holmes (76)

That's a roster foundation with very little downside and a chance to walk all over your league. A roster full of productive, primary ball carriers and explosive, featured WRs. There's also alot of chances of hitting some HRs.

Anybody taking this type of route this year?

 

[pizzatyme]

Pollards, while I agree with the potential, I'm not sure about several of the guys you've mentioned as "reliable vets". Yes, some of those guys had a down year, but I'm not sure I want to count on Braylon or Grant for my fantasy success.

 

[pollardsvision]

Pollards, while I agree with the potential, I'm not sure about several of the guys you've mentioned as "reliable vets". Yes, some of those guys had a down year, but I'm not sure I want to count on Braylon or Grant for my fantasy success.

Those are the guys I meant by players who've previously broken out, but seemed to take a step back last year.Not to get into specific players, but the real point is that you don't really have to "count" on guys like Braylon or Grant this year. Last year, people paid current and future stud prices and were let down. This year, you can get them for much cheaper and will get a big return if you don't think '08 will be the norm for them.The main point is that we have a tendency to over-react based on a single season, which is a relatively small sample size. I think there's often alot of value to had in ignoring a single season. Not pretending it didn't happen, but sometimes it helps to remember why we had them so high in the first place.This year, fantasy teams are pinning their hopes on C.Johnson, Slaton, Jennings, and R. White. All of those guys are really talented and I think they will pay dividends for their owners this season. Now, chances are, one of them will disappoint and have a down year. For whoever that is, in '10, it will likely serve fantasy owners well to remember why we had them so highly rated this season.

 

[stuckinthemuck]

It make for a compelling journalistic story. Whereas in 2008 there were several new faces to enjoy, this year what's old is new again. In the twilight of their careers several vets sip from the Fountain of Youth. It's a feel good story.

In fantasy football we have to evaluate the players one at a time, however, and each of the players above has very big question marks. I and several owners got burned with a second round Braylon pick last year, for example, and this year he continues to suffer from an acute case of the dropsies in training camp this year. Of course there are other threads that offer finer-tuned analysis but the overall story will only take root if all of the red flags prove to be red herrings.

I'm skeptical that we're going to see a full resuscitation from each of these vets but if they do you've got dibs on claiming to find the broader trend first.

 

[prgromek]

Here's the all bounce-back vet PPR team (from a late 1st round pick in a 12-teamer). Alternative choices shown.

1- Frank Gore (LT)

2- Ronnie Brown (Westbrook)

3- Ocho Cinco (Roy Williams)

4- Braylon (Roy Williams)

5- Joseph Addai (Benson)

6- Torry Holt

7- Carson Palmer

8 - Fred Taylor

9 - Joey Galloway

10- Shockey

 

[stuckinthemuck]

Here's the all bounce-back vet PPR team (from a late 1st round pick in a 12-teamer). Alternative choices shown.1- Frank Gore (LT)2- Ronnie Brown (Westbrook)3- Ocho Cinco (Roy Williams)4- Braylon (Roy Williams)5- Joseph Addai (Benson)6- Torry Holt7- Carson Palmer8 - Fred Taylor9 - Joey Galloway10- Shockey

Proposed team names:Social Security SquadSurgery SquadCatheter squadHelp! I've fallen and I can't get up!

 

[Darth Cheney]

Here's the all bounce-back vet PPR team (from a late 1st round pick in a 12-teamer). Alternative choices shown.1- Frank Gore (LT)2- Ronnie Brown (Westbrook)3- Ocho Cinco (Roy Williams)4- Braylon (Roy Williams)5- Joseph Addai (Benson)6- Torry Holt7- Carson Palmer8 - Fred Taylor9 - Joey Galloway10- Shockey

Proposed team names:Social Security SquadSurgery SquadCatheter squadHelp! I've fallen and I can't get up!

In 06 I had a team that I called the 2004 NFL ALL-STARS.....It didn't work out.

 

[David Yudkin]

The past couple of seasons have had teams really nail some exciting rookie RBs and young WRs. It feels like the fantasy world is going with a youth movement b/c that's what's worked for the past 2 seasons. I'm wondering if this isn't the year to load-up (first 6-8 rounds) on nothing, but:1-Vets who've traditionally been reliable that had a down season and everyone thinks they are over the hill2-Guys who've previously broken out, but seemed to take a step back in '08.With the fantasy world tripping over themselves to get those exciting 2nd/3rd year players, this feels like a good year to get some good reliable vets at a great value. Older players often have great value, but this year seems chocked full of vets at great values.Imagine a draft where you could conceivably do something like this (ESPN ADP in parenthesis):Rd1: LT (8)Rd2: Frank Gore (14) or Brian Westbrook (22) orRd3: Reggie Wayne if he slips (24) or Ryan Grant (35)Rd4: Roy Williams (42)Rd5: Chad Ochocinco(50) or Braylon Edwards (54)Rd6: Braylon if he slips or Larry Johnson (60) Rd7: Santonio Holmes (76)That's a roster foundation with very little downside and a chance to walk all over your league. A roster full of productive, primary ball carriers and explosive, featured WRs. There's also alot of chances of hitting some HRs.Anybody taking this type of route this year?

Here's where these guys actually were drafted last night in our FBG staff draft (PPR) . . .LT (2)Frank Gore (9)Brian Westbrook (17) Reggie Wayne (20)Ryan Grant (34)Roy Williams (70)Chad Ochocinco (35)Braylon Edwards (40)Larry Johnson (47) Santonio Holmes (44)The only one that slipped was Williams. I suspect that the other guys going earlier than you listed will be pretty common . . .

 

[Diamond One]

Pollards, while I agree with the potential, I'm not sure about several of the guys you've mentioned as "reliable vets". Yes, some of those guys had a down year, but I'm not sure I want to count on Braylon or Grant for my fantasy success.

Those are the guys I meant by players who've previously broken out, but seemed to take a step back last year.Not to get into specific players, but the real point is that you don't really have to "count" on guys like Braylon or Grant this year. Last year, people paid current and future stud prices and were let down. This year, you can get them for much cheaper and will get a big return if you don't think '08 will be the norm for them.The main point is that we have a tendency to over-react based on a single season, which is a relatively small sample size. I think there's often alot of value to had in ignoring a single season. Not pretending it didn't happen, but sometimes it helps to remember why we had them so high in the first place.This year, fantasy teams are pinning their hopes on C.Johnson, Slaton, Jennings, and R. White. All of those guys are really talented and I think they will pay dividends for their owners this season. Now, chances are, one of them will disappoint and have a down year. For whoever that is, in '10, it will likely serve fantasy owners well to remember why we had them so highly rated this season.

It's an interesting concept, and I do agree that some of these older players will often be overlooked, but some other things to consider:Are we talking about a total redraft or dynasty? In a total redraft, I concur that there are indeed some older vets who have some potential this year despite a poor performance last season. In a dynasty, I think that while using some older guys also has some benefit, I personally would want to load up on younger guys with potential for coming seasons rather that a lot of older ones who are on their way out of the league.I also suspect that individual leagues scoring rules woud also come into play here as well.Regarding looking past one season, I can appreciate what you are trying to stress here, but for me it's hard to overlook those numbers despite the reason for an older guys lack of performance last year. Everything happens for a reason, and it is a huge consideration, for me anyway, when looking at putting a fantasy team together. You also have to consider that these players are a year older, and as we all know, the older you get, performance and production decline.The trick is really to find the right balance of reliable veterans and up & coming talent in any format. I do agree that there are indeed some older guys out there that will present a lot of value in many drafts and when searching the waiver wire or putting trade deals together. As always, it should be an interesting year loaded with a lot of surprises...

 

[Darth Cheney]

To a point it's a good idea. Veteran WR's such as Driver and Mason seem to have outplayed their draft position for 20 years. But RB is different.....and as much as I've enjoyed the LT and Westbrook runs... they are going to fall...and fall big sooner than later. Right now, I don't know if their draft positions warrant that type of commitment to them. Someone like Fred Taylor or Jamal Lewis or Willis McGahee....guys like that are a bit different. They might be the type of veteran that can put up numbers that outproduces their draft position.....

 

[CalBear]

I think it's usually the case that long-time veterans (5+ years in the league) are undervalued relative to younger, more "exciting" players. Look at Dodds' "Eliminating the Suck" article, where he makes some pretty amusing claims related to age:

Old players suck. They get hurt a lot and offer minimal upside. Go ahead and cross off Kurt Warner (38 years old), Joey Galloway (38), Isaac Bruce (37), Donald Driver (34), Tony Gonzalez (33), and Torry Holt (33) off from the remaining players. Some are still pretending to have game, but many will likely disappoint.

The examples he gives are the amusing part; did Kurt Warner have minimal upside in 2008? (Taken in the last rounds, finished as QB#4). Did Joey Galloway at age 34? (Taken in the last rounds, finished as WR#5). These are the guys who won the FBG subscriber contests, not the hot rookies. "Many will likely disappoint"--isn't that true of the larger population as well? Dodds' sentiment is common amongst fantasy footballers, and it creates bargains on these kinds of players.(NB: I would avoid Galloway, Bruce, and Holt for reasons not related to their age, and Warner is pretty expensive for what you get. Gonzalez is probably still a good deal, and I think Driver is a screaming buy where he's being taken.)In my auction, I'm expecting to wind up with Tomlinson, Driver, Hasselbeck, and a few others who are being discounted for questionable reasons, mostly that they're not exciting.

 

[Hugonel]

To a point it's a good idea. Veteran WR's such as Driver and Mason seem to have outplayed their draft position for 20 years. But RB is different.....and as much as I've enjoyed the LT and Westbrook runs... they are going to fall...and fall big sooner than later. Right now, I don't know if their draft positions warrant that type of commitment to them. Someone like Fred Taylor or Jamal Lewis or Willis McGahee....guys like that are a bit different. They might be the type of veteran that can put up numbers that outproduces their draft position.....

Totally agree. Tim Brown was great value and hung on for longer than most thought. WRs are safer to last longer.Remember how fast Faulk and Alexander fell off the map. That's why I am not touching LT this year. Great run, but the risk is just too high, at least with a 1st round pick.

 

[mjr]

The trick is really to find the right balance of reliable veterans and up & coming talent in any format.

I agree. I do like the idea of picking up a few of these bounce-back candidates, enough that I've already picked up Palmer, Ocho and Addai this year for my dynasty team. But for me it's low-risk move because I'm adding them to a championship-winning roster with guys like Rogers, Jennings, Gates, Witten and Chris Johnson on it. If any of these bounce-back candidates return to old form I think my team becomes considerably better, but I also know I can still compete with the best teams in my league even if these new additions to my roster end up going the way of Rudi Johnson.

 

[JT10]

I'm with you. I think the FF world has gone a bit too youth-centric. Everyone seems rookie-crazy.

I'll take the still-useful vets over the a-dollar-and-a-dream rooks.

 

[Aardvarks]

No. 1 bounce-back vet of 09

Willie Parker