Is Tomlinson on the decline? (1 Viewer)

[benm3218]

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/2009/0...ows-lt2-on.html

Scouts, Inc: Film Analysis Shows LT2 on the Decline

Scouts, Inc.'s Matt Williamson highlights the reasons for LaDainian Tomlinson's current high-risk, low-reward Dynasty value. Aging and injury-prone players may often be worth a roll of the dice if there's a reasonable chance of a perfect-storm monster season still left in the tank, but Tomlinson's ceiling is no longer 2,000 total yards and 20+ touchdowns. The high-end reward isn't worth the risk of being left holding the bag on a value-drain.

It pains me to say it because I respect what he has accomplished a great deal, but LaDainian Tomlinson is heavily on the decline and the end is near for an all-time great running back. I base this on one thing -- film.

Tomlinson clearly was injured to some degree throughout last season, and I really have no way of judging how severe those injuries were. Also, his offensive line declined to some degree as well in 2008. But the Tomlinson of old would have shined despite the blocking he received last season. He was that good in his prime. He is not that good now.

. . .

First, he has taken a beating over the years. Despite his tremendous elusiveness and vision -- he rarely took big head-on shots -- the wear is beginning to deteriorate his once massive skill set.

He no longer explodes out of his cuts like he once did. He rarely breaks long runs -- one of the very first things to go in a great running back. His trademark jump cuts are not what they once were. He doesn't make your jaw drop in the open field and doesn't move the pile as he once did. Some of this can be attributed to his toe injury, but last year's Tomlinson is more of what we will see than the great Tomlinson of the past. At this point, he gets what is given to him and little more.

Tomlinson eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark only twice last season, with a high of 106 yards. Those two games were against the Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saints -- not exactly high-end run defenses. Tomlinson's eyes see the play to make, but his body can't finish it off. That is what happens when great players decline.

Tomlinson's game isn't going to fall off a cliff; it should be a more gradual slide. His yards per carry declined in each of the past two years, dipping to a measly 3.8 in 2008. There will be fewer and fewer highlight runs -- even though he is now a part of a deadly passing offense that will pull defenders out of the box.

The injuries probably will continue to be a problem -- that is simply what happens to running backs with the number of carries he has logged . . . He is now a complementary piece of an exceptional offense. Philip Rivers must be the central figure.

I thought last year he was on the decline regardless of his toe. I think alot of us did and I know we had a ton of posts about it. But, I still read quite a few posts oh here where fantasy guys are predicting a great comeback and thinking that the naysayers are crazy.

Do you agree that he is on the decline? Do you think even so he will be a top 10 RB?

 

[David Yudkin]

While I agree that at this point LT won't put up 2300 yards and 30 TD, he still is not that big a risk. Sure, he's been injured . . . BUT HE'S MISSED ONE GAME IN HIS CAREER. Even in what by all accounts was a disappointing season last year, he still RANKED 7TH. In terms of a redraft league, who else is all but guaranteed 350 touches on the season?

IMO, he is an extremely safe pick and should do better if he can stay a bit healthier. Even if he gets a few bumps along the way, he still plays and plays better than 80% of the league's RBs.

 

[EBF]

He's a 30 year old RB with 3,000+ career touches. The workload finally caught up with him last season and I'm not sure we'll ever see him play at an elite level again. Maybe he can scrape together a couple good years like Emmitt did towards the end of his career, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him phased out completely by the end of this season.

Sproles is more explosive and Gartrell Johnson has the potential to be a serviceable "thunder" type back. These guys are waiting in the wings to steal carries if LT doesn't regain his old form. People will be intrigued by the potential value here because of what LT has accomplished in the past, but the end comes swiftly for RBs and the writing on the wall says LT's days as a star player are numbered (if not already over).

 

[Chase Stuart]

LT will still get a high number of touches for one reason -- he doesn't fumble. He's lost exactly one fumble in his 1123 touches the past three seasons.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

This

Tomlinson clearly was injured to some degree throughout last season, and I really have no way of judging how severe those injuries were. Also, his offensive line declined to some degree as well in 2008. But the Tomlinson of old would have shined despite the blocking he received last season. He was that good in his prime. He is not that good now.

seems contradictory to me. The blogger doesn't (and we don't) really know how much effect the toe and groin injuries had on LT last year. Therefore I don't see the validity of saying that his explosiveness is gone. I don't think that anyone can be explosive with turf toe. I remember Deion Sanders and a young Warrick Dunn having no explosiveness when they had turf toe. They returned to form. Will LT? I don't know. I'm ranking him lower than average right now.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

pains me to say it but Marty used him up.

He is still servicable, but the lingering toes, and hammys and sprains will start to mount up.

Hopefully Norv uses Sproles and G.Johnson effectively and has LT fresher for the playoffs.

IMO LT is still going to be semi productive but his elite years are behind him

 

[benm3218]

While I agree that at this point LT won't put up 2300 yards and 30 TD, he still is not that big a risk. Sure, he's been injured . . . BUT HE'S MISSED ONE GAME IN HIS CAREER. Even in what by all accounts was a disappointing season last year, he still RANKED 7TH. In terms of a redraft league, who else is all but guaranteed 350 touches on the season?IMO, he is an extremely safe pick and should do better if he can stay a bit healthier. Even if he gets a few bumps along the way, he still plays and plays better than 80% of the league's RBs.

David I really value your opinion (especially on the Patriots) but what other than your gut are you basing this on?Haven't we seen tons of numbers posted on here that show RB's hit a wall and fall FAST? When you combine his age and number of carries with the way Rivers and passing game launched, are you sure you would call him "extremely safe"? He seems very risky to me. I just wonder if there is anything other than your gut you are basing your opinion on?

 

[David Yudkin]

While I agree that at this point LT won't put up 2300 yards and 30 TD, he still is not that big a risk. Sure, he's been injured . . . BUT HE'S MISSED ONE GAME IN HIS CAREER. Even in what by all accounts was a disappointing season last year, he still RANKED 7TH. In terms of a redraft league, who else is all but guaranteed 350 touches on the season?IMO, he is an extremely safe pick and should do better if he can stay a bit healthier. Even if he gets a few bumps along the way, he still plays and plays better than 80% of the league's RBs.

David I really value your opinion (especially on the Patriots) but what other than your gut are you basing this on?Haven't we seen tons of numbers posted on here that show RB's hit a wall and fall FAST? When you combine his age and number of carries with the way Rivers and passing game launched, are you sure you would call him "extremely safe"? He seems very risky to me. I just wonder if there is anything other than your gut you are basing your opinion on?

LT will probably score closer to the #10 RB than the #1 RB in terms of total points scored, but he is pretty much assured a huge workload. The Chargers have pretty much already said that for this year.As I already said, the difference between LT and other backs is that HE'S STAYED IN THE LINEUP when he got banged up. So unless he is going to start getting injuries that actually start keeping him out of the lineup, we know what the downside is from LT (2008).So my question to whomever wants to answer it is this . . . after the first few backs are off the board, who else stands as good a chance to rank in the Top 10 than Tomlinson?

 

[Tau837]

who else is all but guaranteed 350 touches on the season?

I think this is the key question regarding LT's value this year. We saw last year that if he gets the touches he is still valuable even if his performance isn't as good as it was the previous several years.I do not think he is a lock for 350 touches, even if he plays 16 relatively healthy games. Reasons:1. I think San Diego should and will gradually shift its offensive emphasis to the passing game, beginning this season. Their passing game is one of the best in the league, and is a better weapon than their running game. It would be foolish not to take full advantage of it. That could imply fewer rushing attempts.2. I think Sproles has proven that he deserves and can handle a moderate increase in his workload. I know he has extraordinary value on special teams, but I can see him getting more touches from scrimmage this year. Unlike LT, he is in his prime, and they don't know for sure if they'll have him beyond this year, so there is no reason not to get as much usage from him as possible this year.3. It is possible that LT could fall off a cliff at any time going forward. Given that, and the fact that Sproles is on a one year deal, the team needs to get a look at Gartrell Johnson this year to see what they have in him, to help them plan what to do with their RBs going forward.4. Two years in a row, San Diego has not had a healthy Tomlinson in the playoffs. It is reasonable that they might think reducing his workload at this stage of his career increases the likelihood that he'll be healthy in the postseason. Not to mention, it might also make him more effective throughout the season.I'm not suggesting that he'll only get 200 touches, but I think 275-300 is a real possibility.

 

[benm3218]

I think Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown could all do better than LT this year... and they are ranked outside of top ten on FBG redraft ranking.

But, I can't back this up with empirical data like you can back up ranking LT high. It is my gut and trends for those teams. So, I can't really argue that with you honestly. It is just my personal feelings.

Chris Johnson should improve on last year and with better passing weapons do great.

Jacobs has Ward gone so not as many carries taken away and Giants have lost WR weapons so he will run a ton I would think.

Ronnie Brown is primed to have big return to Top 10

 

[David Yudkin]

Turner believes LT poised to excel

By Kevin Acee

March 24, 2009, 2:55 p.m.

Norv Turner does not believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddy, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

"If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries," Turner said. "(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load."

Tomlinson is coming off a season in which he suffered serious injuries in the first game (toe) and last game (groin) of the regular season. He rushed for a career-low 1,110 yards in 2008, and the final three seasons on Tomlinson's contract were restructured this month.

Tomlinson, who in 2009 will make $6.725 million to Sproles' $6.61 million, is closing in on his 30th birthday in June. And coming off the most trying physical and emotional period in his career, there is much anticipation over how he will perform.

"I really believe that he'll have one of his better years this year," Turner said. "I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls."

 

[baconisgood]

While I agree that at this point LT won't put up 2300 yards and 30 TD, he still is not that big a risk. Sure, he's been injured . . . BUT HE'S MISSED ONE GAME IN HIS CAREER. Even in what by all accounts was a disappointing season last year, he still RANKED 7TH. In terms of a redraft league, who else is all but guaranteed 350 touches on the season?IMO, he is an extremely safe pick and should do better if he can stay a bit healthier. Even if he gets a few bumps along the way, he still plays and plays better than 80% of the league's RBs.

David I really value your opinion (especially on the Patriots) but what other than your gut are you basing this on?Haven't we seen tons of numbers posted on here that show RB's hit a wall and fall FAST? When you combine his age and number of carries with the way Rivers and passing game launched, are you sure you would call him "extremely safe"? He seems very risky to me. I just wonder if there is anything other than your gut you are basing your opinion on?

I've got to agree with David here- I think this season still ranks as a 'safe' season for Tomlinson. Other similarly sized- high carry backs have had solid 30 and 31 year old seasons. Emmit Smith put up 1500 and 13 TDs and 1300 and 9 his 30 and 31 seasons and Curtis Martin put up 1500 and 2 and 1900 and 14 his 30 and 31 seasons. His running was clearly effected by injury but his pass receiving was pretty much the same as its always been 52/426/1 on 8.2 y/c (up from his career average). As long as hes putting up 400-500 yards receiving a year hes going to be in the mix for RB #10 production. I am no drafting him (and I picked him up with pick 16 in a draft on monday) expecting or even hoping for a 300 pt season from him, but another 225-250 pt season would make him 3-5 spots worth of value and its hard to get that kind of value in rounds 1 + 2. I wouldn't use anything higher than the number 12 pick on him though.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown could all do better than LT this year... and they are ranked outside of top ten on FBG redraft ranking.But, I can't back this up with empirical data like you can back up ranking LT high. It is my gut and trends for those teams. So, I can't really argue that with you honestly. It is just my personal feelings.Chris Johnson should improve on last year and with better passing weapons do great.Jacobs has Ward gone so not as many carries taken away and Giants have lost WR weapons so he will run a ton I would think.Ronnie Brown is primed to have big return to Top 10

1) Johnson not being a goal line back should be a red flag.2) Jacobs has not been able to stay healthy, missing 8 games in two years to LT's zero.3) Brown can't return to a spot he's never been in. His best year end rank was last year at RB17.

 

[deliverator]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him phased out completely by the end of this season.

Just wow. Have you started drinking early? You think Sproles and Gartrell Johnson put together are better than Tomlinson, even at 30? You think Norv Turner is going to bench a sure-fire Hall of Famer who is a San Diego institution? This is the reason they call it fantasy football.

 

[benm3218]

Turner believes LT poised to excel

By Kevin Acee

March 24, 2009, 2:55 p.m.

Norv Turner does not believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddy, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

"If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries," Turner said. "(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load."

Tomlinson is coming off a season in which he suffered serious injuries in the first game (toe) and last game (groin) of the regular season. He rushed for a career-low 1,110 yards in 2008, and the final three seasons on Tomlinson's contract were restructured this month.

Tomlinson, who in 2009 will make $6.725 million to Sproles' $6.61 million, is closing in on his 30th birthday in June. And coming off the most trying physical and emotional period in his career, there is much anticipation over how he will perform.

"I really believe that he'll have one of his better years this year," Turner said. "I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls."

That doesn't even sound logical. lola more recent FBG post:

Chargers | Tomlinson believes he can still be productive at 30 Fri Jun 26, 12:18 PM

Stephen Hawkins, of The Associated Press, reports San Diego Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson said he believes he can still be productive even though he recently turned 30 years old. 'That's the one thing that I'm eager to prove, is that doesn't necessarily go for every player. Turn 30, that doesn't mean that you can't play any more. There are some guys out there that defy the odds, and I'm eager to prove that,' Tomlinson said.

Our view: Tomlinson is healthy going into training camp for the first time in years, but one has to wonder can he stay healthy during the season? Running backs absorb a ton of punishment during their careers, and Tomlinson has been breaking down because of it in recent years. The former #1 overall fantasy pick is now falling in fantasy circles and currently has an ADP of #12 overall (RB10). Proceed with caution when considering the veteran for your team, and remember names like Darren Sproles and Gartrell Johnson later in your fantasy drafts.

Remember when Sean Alexander hit the wall he went from good to BAD instantly. Listen I love LT. I wish I didn't have to see him quit. But, I am just afraid we are in for one of those times when the guy falls fast. Regardless of his injuries last year, he just didn't even look close to being the same type of player. In my opinion we will know by game one. If he has the jump cuts and slashing and power then he is fine and going to do great, but if he still is running for just what the line offers then he is done... He sure looked done last year. EDIT to add - he looked done last year compared to the way he normally looks. I understand he still a good year last year.

 

[ookook]

I was reading just a while ago that Westbrook would also be phased out this season to the point of being a non-factor by the end.

Geeez!

 

[David Yudkin]

Turner believes LT poised to excel

By Kevin Acee

March 24, 2009, 2:55 p.m.

Norv Turner does not believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddy, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

"If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries," Turner said. "(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load."

Tomlinson is coming off a season in which he suffered serious injuries in the first game (toe) and last game (groin) of the regular season. He rushed for a career-low 1,110 yards in 2008, and the final three seasons on Tomlinson's contract were restructured this month.

Tomlinson, who in 2009 will make $6.725 million to Sproles' $6.61 million, is closing in on his 30th birthday in June. And coming off the most trying physical and emotional period in his career, there is much anticipation over how he will perform.

"I really believe that he'll have one of his better years this year," Turner said. "I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls."

That doesn't even sound logical. lola more recent FBG post:

Chargers | Tomlinson believes he can still be productive at 30 Fri Jun 26, 12:18 PM

Stephen Hawkins, of The Associated Press, reports San Diego Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson said he believes he can still be productive even though he recently turned 30 years old. 'That's the one thing that I'm eager to prove, is that doesn't necessarily go for every player. Turn 30, that doesn't mean that you can't play any more. There are some guys out there that defy the odds, and I'm eager to prove that,' Tomlinson said.

Our view: Tomlinson is healthy going into training camp for the first time in years, but one has to wonder can he stay healthy during the season? Running backs absorb a ton of punishment during their careers, and Tomlinson has been breaking down because of it in recent years. The former #1 overall fantasy pick is now falling in fantasy circles and currently has an ADP of #12 overall (RB10). Proceed with caution when considering the veteran for your team, and remember names like Darren Sproles and Gartrell Johnson later in your fantasy drafts.

Remember when Sean Alexander hit the wall he went from good to BAD instantly. Listen I love LT. I wish I didn't have to see him quit. But, I am just afraid we are in for one of those times when the guy falls fast. Regardless of his injuries last year, he just didn't even look close to being the same type of player. In my opinion we will know by game one. If he has the jump cuts and slashing and power then he is fine and going to do great, but if he still is running for just what the line offers then he is done... He sure looked done last year.

I put more stock in quotes FROM A PLAYER'S HEAD COACH than some undefined comments and speculation and opinion from someone completley unaffiliated with the team.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

 

[fourd]

Turner believes LT poised to excel

By Kevin Acee

March 24, 2009, 2:55 p.m.

Norv Turner does not believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddy, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

"If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries," Turner said. "(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load."

Tomlinson is coming off a season in which he suffered serious injuries in the first game (toe) and last game (groin) of the regular season. He rushed for a career-low 1,110 yards in 2008, and the final three seasons on Tomlinson's contract were restructured this month.

Tomlinson, who in 2009 will make $6.725 million to Sproles' $6.61 million, is closing in on his 30th birthday in June. And coming off the most trying physical and emotional period in his career, there is much anticipation over how he will perform.

"I really believe that he'll have one of his better years this year," Turner said. "I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls."

And yet he didn't have 320 last year. He couldn't handle it. It sounds like Norv is praying he'll be able to hold up as he can see the end coming quickly to his coaching tenure if he doesn't go deep into the playoffs. And why did they feel the need to restructure his deal if they are ready for him to carry his usual load?

 

[-jb-]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

How much more than the 6.7M that he is getting was he supposed to make?

 

[David Yudkin]

Turner believes LT poised to excel

By Kevin Acee

March 24, 2009, 2:55 p.m.

Norv Turner does not believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddy, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

"If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries," Turner said. "(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load."

Tomlinson is coming off a season in which he suffered serious injuries in the first game (toe) and last game (groin) of the regular season. He rushed for a career-low 1,110 yards in 2008, and the final three seasons on Tomlinson's contract were restructured this month.

Tomlinson, who in 2009 will make $6.725 million to Sproles' $6.61 million, is closing in on his 30th birthday in June. And coming off the most trying physical and emotional period in his career, there is much anticipation over how he will perform.

"I really believe that he'll have one of his better years this year," Turner said. "I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls."

And yet he didn't have 320 last year. He couldn't handle it. It sounds like Norv is praying he'll be able to hold up as he can see the end coming quickly to his coaching tenure if he doesn't go deep into the playoffs. And why did they feel the need to restructure his deal if they are ready for him to carry his usual load?

The issue became more problematic when they tagged Sproules, so that messed with the payment structure and how much they had available to spend on RBs.LT didn't get 320 carries last year because he was hurt. Unlike Faulk, it does not appear that LT has a degenerative, career threatening injury, so I'm willing to give him an opportunity to start the year healthy.

Will he be the 2300/30 guy like a few years ago? No. But he should still see the ball enough and score enough fantasy points to rank in the Top 10, especially given that there are now so many teams with guys splitting the workload or utilizing specialists.

 

[EBF]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him phased out completely by the end of this season.

Just wow. Have you started drinking early? You think Sproles and Gartrell Johnson put together are better than Tomlinson, even at 30? You think Norv Turner is going to bench a sure-fire Hall of Famer who is a San Diego institution? This is the reason they call it fantasy football.

Sproles looked better than Tomlinson at the end of last season. Ask the Colts defense who they'd rather face. You're putting too much emphasis on the past. Just because LT was a great player between 2001-2007 doesn't mean he's a great player anymore. He has been showing signs of breaking down for the past two years and his performance in 2008 was mediocre. If he doesn't bounce back, he'll be run out of town just like Eddie George, Shaun Alexander, and Emmitt Smith.

Considering that he's 30 years old with a lot of tread off the tires, I think it's probably safe to assume that his best football is behind him. He might be able to will his way to a few more decent seasons like Edgerrin James or Emmitt Smith, but his days as a Pro Bowler are probably over. I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest that this could be his last season as a starter in the NFL. The end comes quickly for RBs and many of the great ones hit the wall very abruptly. The warning signs are already there for LT (mounting injuries, declining productivity, age). I'll be avoiding him like the plague in my drafts.

 

[baconisgood]

LT didn't get 320 carries last year because he was hurt.

Now I'm going to disagree with you David. I don't think this is nearly the factor that many people are claiming- the real reason in my view is that SD simply ran fewer total plays than expected. They were 29th in the league iirc in total offensive plays and ran the ball 421 total times. LT has roughly the same % of SD running plays that he always had but SD offense had a high number of big scoring plays that kept their offense off the field. If you expect them to have the 2nd scoring offense with the 29th most plays again concerns about Lt breaking 300 carries are legit. Realistically though I think thats an abberation and they will return to the 450-500 rushing plays (or more) of yesteryear.

 

[fourd]

Turner believes LT poised to excel

By Kevin Acee

March 24, 2009, 2:55 p.m.

Norv Turner does not believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddy, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

"If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries," Turner said. "(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load."

Tomlinson is coming off a season in which he suffered serious injuries in the first game (toe) and last game (groin) of the regular season. He rushed for a career-low 1,110 yards in 2008, and the final three seasons on Tomlinson's contract were restructured this month.

Tomlinson, who in 2009 will make $6.725 million to Sproles' $6.61 million, is closing in on his 30th birthday in June. And coming off the most trying physical and emotional period in his career, there is much anticipation over how he will perform.

"I really believe that he'll have one of his better years this year," Turner said. "I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls."

And yet he didn't have 320 last year. He couldn't handle it. It sounds like Norv is praying he'll be able to hold up as he can see the end coming quickly to his coaching tenure if he doesn't go deep into the playoffs. And why did they feel the need to restructure his deal if they are ready for him to carry his usual load?

The issue became more problematic when they tagged Sproules, so that messed with the payment structure and how much they had available to spend on RBs.LT didn't get 320 carries last year because he was hurt. Unlike Faulk, it does not appear that LT has a degenerative, career threatening injury, so I'm willing to give him an opportunity to start the year healthy.

Will he be the 2300/30 guy like a few years ago? No. But he should still see the ball enough and score enough fantasy points to rank in the Top 10, especially given that there are now so many teams with guys splitting the workload or utilizing specialists.

And I guess that's the real question. How confident are you in this happening. I'm not as confident as you, so I'll avoid him. I won't take him early in the first and later in the round I'd rather have a top wr.

 

[Tau837]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

 

[fourd]

I gues if it were just a question of him staying healthy all year; or if they didn't have a very viable alternative; or if he wasn't on the wrong side of 30; or if he didn't have his massive number of touches - I'd be more confident. But he has ALL those things working against him. So I'll pass.

 

[Jman]

Turf toe is a bioch!

I used to make fun of players for missing games with "freaking turf TOE?! Heck, lop it off and keep going."

Well... not quite that easy. After suffering the same type of injury (albeit, FAR less severe) I can attest that it is unbelievably debilitating. I cannot imagine how hard it must have been to play through. I could barely walk, let alone run, cut and get tackled. After a couple years, I could still feel the injury when walking backwards. Add in the groin pull and it's remarkable that LT was even able to make it to the stadium.

IF (and that's a big IF) he can get healthy, I think LT has too much pride to go out with a whimper. His play last season can be directly attributed to his injuries.

 

[benm3218]

I gues if it were just a question of him staying healthy all year; or if they didn't have a very viable alternative; or if he wasn't on the wrong side of 30; or if he didn't have his massive number of touches - I'd be more confident. But he has ALL those things working against him. So I'll pass.

This is my feeling as well and I just can't make it jive with Davids wording below...

IMO, he is an extremely safe pick and should do better if he can stay a bit healthier. Even if he gets a few bumps along the way, he still plays and plays better than 80% of the league's RBs.

He just doesn't seem extremely safe. But, I think David is probably a bit more in the know than I am so now I question if I am missing the boat...

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Just to be clear, the introductory comments on the blog are mine, but the article is from Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson.

I posted it on the Dynasty blog as a reminder to keeper/Dynasty owners that LT is seeping value that is not likely to be re-claimed.

Re-draft is a different story. I don't typically draft 30-year-old RBs coming off of injury-plagued seasons even in re-draft leagues, but it's a completely different set of considerations than Dynasty/keeper leagues.

 

[benm3218]

Just to be clear, the introductory comments on the blog are mine, but the article is from Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson. I posted it on the Dynasty blog as a reminder to keeper/Dynasty owners that LT is seeping value that is not likely to be re-claimed. Re-draft is a different story. I don't typically draft 30-year-old RBs coming off of injury-plagued seasons even in re-draft leagues, but it's a completely different set of considerations than Dynasty/keeper leagues.

Do you think he will finish top 10 this year? (I should have labeled your blog post better - sorry)

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Do you think he will finish top 10 this year? (I should have labeled your blog post better - sorry)

Could he? Certainly. But that's part of the reason why I don't really care for re-draft leagues. Any player can have a good year. On most players, we're just guessing. You'll find smart analysts and experts arguing/guessing both ways. I just find it to be more fun to try to figure out what a player will do long-term.Gun to my head, I would guess that he doesn't finish Top-10 this year. But the arguments for it are probably as convincing as the arguments against it.

 

[David Yudkin]

There's been 29 times where a RB was 30+ and scored 200+ fantasy points. Many of them were all time greats and/or heavy carry backs (Emmitt, Martin, Payton, Dillon, Sanders, Dorsett, etc.). Hitting 30 is no longer a death sentence for RBs, especially for one of the greatest backs in league history.

Sure, a RB can lose it quickly, but other guys that we thought were done still had solid years 30+ (Martin, Thomas Jones, Dillon, Ottis Anderson).

I think a lot of people are WANTING Tomlinson to tank out of spite or jealousy for not owning him over the years or not being able to draft him without an early draft pick.

 

[SouthJersey]

There's been 29 times where a RB was 30+ and scored 200+ fantasy points. Many of them were all time greats and/or heavy carry backs (Emmitt, Martin, Payton, Dillon, Sanders, Dorsett, etc.). Hitting 30 is no longer a death sentence for RBs, especially for one of the greatest backs in league history.Sure, a RB can lose it quickly, but other guys that we thought were done still had solid years 30+ (Martin, Thomas Jones, Dillon, Ottis Anderson). I think a lot of people are WANTING Tomlinson to tank out of spite or jealousy for not owning him over the years or not being able to draft him without an early draft pick.

You seem pretty High on LT. Which backs would you take over him?

 

[David Yudkin]

There's been 29 times where a RB was 30+ and scored 200+ fantasy points. Many of them were all time greats and/or heavy carry backs (Emmitt, Martin, Payton, Dillon, Sanders, Dorsett, etc.). Hitting 30 is no longer a death sentence for RBs, especially for one of the greatest backs in league history.Sure, a RB can lose it quickly, but other guys that we thought were done still had solid years 30+ (Martin, Thomas Jones, Dillon, Ottis Anderson). I think a lot of people are WANTING Tomlinson to tank out of spite or jealousy for not owning him over the years or not being able to draft him without an early draft pick.

You seem pretty High on LT. Which backs would you take over him?

I'm not exceedingly high on LT in that I think he will be the #1 back ever agin, but I think the chances of him totally tanking are relatively small compared to some other backs. As a whole, the FBG staff have him with an average ranking of 5th, with some guys having him as high as 2 or 3 and almost all of the staff guys with him still in the Top 10. I think all of that is a reasonable expectation, I would expect him to rank in the 5-10 range again this year, higher if he gets more TD chances.ADP, Turner, MJD are probably the only guys I would definitely take over Tomlison. Portis is the only totally proven commodity besides LT that I would want without worrying too much about risk, but I wouldn't take Portis of LT.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

How much more than the 6.7M that he is getting was he supposed to make?

Before renegotiation: 2010: $8 million 2011: $9.275 million After: 2010: $3 million (+ $2 million roster bonus due in March), 2011: $6.15 millionAlso, I think it's important to note that the Chargers franchised Sproles BEFORE they played contract chicken with LT.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

There's been 29 times where a RB was 30+ and scored 200+ fantasy points. Many of them were all time greats and/or heavy carry backs (Emmitt, Martin, Payton, Dillon, Sanders, Dorsett, etc.). Hitting 30 is no longer a death sentence for RBs, especially for one of the greatest backs in league history.Sure, a RB can lose it quickly, but other guys that we thought were done still had solid years 30+ (Martin, Thomas Jones, Dillon, Ottis Anderson). I think a lot of people are WANTING Tomlinson to tank out of spite or jealousy for not owning him over the years or not being able to draft him without an early draft pick.

When I researched this topic a couple of years ago, I found that yardage falls off tremendously but quite a few of the great RBs were able to maintain fantasy value with high TD totals.

 

[David Yudkin]

The other thing not currently being discussed is WHY the Chargers passed more in key situations last year. Their defense gave up 20+ points 10 times last season, allowing 60 more points over 2007. Most of the games were closely contested throughout, so they did not have the luxury of grinding it out on the ground late in the game like they did in prior seasons. With a better defense this year, SD would again be in position to kill the clock in the 4th quarter (they had roughly 80 fewer rushing attempts last year).

 

[Ray_T]

LT will be fine.

I dont predict he is the #1 RB in fantasy footbaball anymore, but he is still solid.

I think his upside would be as the #3 RB in fantasy football. Downside #10. (barring injury of course)

his decline is more due to the decline in the O-Line, his injury, and the change in the offensive scheme.

The injury seems fine now. The Scheme we can do nothing about. He will do okay, but the years of 2000 all purpose yards are gone. The O-Line is still good. they had a bit of a down year and I expect a rebound. They arent the top line for Run blocking anymore, but they are still above average.

either way, I think LT has one more really good year, (but not a pro bowl year) and we will see a more noticeable decline next year.

 

[bcr8f]

On the decline yes

Declining Not yet

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I was feeling pretty good about drafting LT at #6 in a redraft league until I came in here. The thing is, no RB is without question marks. The only other guys at that spot that I would consider over LT are S Jackson, who always seems to be injured and has no supporting cast, Chris Johnson who has had one good season and a TD vulture looming or Frank Gore, who I go back and forth on with LT.

 

[benm3218]

I was feeling pretty good about drafting LT at #6 in a redraft league until I came in here. The thing is, no RB is without question marks. The only other guys at that spot that I would consider over LT are S Jackson, who always seems to be injured and has no supporting cast, Chris Johnson who has had one good season and a TD vulture looming or Frank Gore, who I go back and forth on with LT.

I like SJ better.... Look at Steven Jackson's points per game here - http://ww2.sportsdatahub.com/index.php/200...nts-since-2006/

 

[gerome]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

How much more than the 6.7M that he is getting was he supposed to make?

Before renegotiation: 2010: $8 million 2011: $9.275 million After: 2010: $3 million (+ $2 million roster bonus due in March), 2011: $6.15 millionAlso, I think it's important to note that the Chargers franchised Sproles BEFORE they played contract chicken with LT.

So what are the odds that he will be cut before next March?

 

[Tau837]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

How much more than the 6.7M that he is getting was he supposed to make?

Before renegotiation: 2010: $8 million 2011: $9.275 million After: 2010: $3 million (+ $2 million roster bonus due in March), 2011: $6.15 millionAlso, I think it's important to note that the Chargers franchised Sproles BEFORE they played contract chicken with LT.

So what are the odds that he will be cut before next March?

Zero.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

Top say that LT was the No. 7 RB last year is a little misleading. He had 3 TDs in Week 17 to help pad out his numbers.

LT has carried my dynasty team for years, but I'm hedging my bets this year. He will probably be one of the top 10 RBs this year, but I'm more inclined to think he'll muddle through in the low teens and then slip into the top 10 with another big game somewhere.

 

[David Yudkin]

I was feeling pretty good about drafting LT at #6 in a redraft league until I came in here. The thing is, no RB is without question marks. The only other guys at that spot that I would consider over LT are S Jackson, who always seems to be injured and has no supporting cast, Chris Johnson who has had one good season and a TD vulture looming or Frank Gore, who I go back and forth on with LT.

I like SJ better.... Look at Steven Jackson's points per game here - http://ww2.sportsdatahub.com/index.php/200...nts-since-2006/

Top 10 PPF 0 PPR 2007-2008:Brian Westbrook 17.25

LaDainian Tomlinson 16.70

Adrian Peterson 16.25

Matt Forte 15.22

Steven Jackson 14.94

Brandon Jacobs 14.88

Clinton Portis 14.42

Steve Slaton 14.12

Chris Johnson 13.92

Ronnie Brown 13.59

Interesting that the top two guys on the list are on many people's "do not draft" lists this year.

 

[big0mar]

I have LT ranked 5th among RBs. I don't think he gets more than 900 yds this year, but he is certainly good for 13+ TDs.

 

[benm3218]

I was feeling pretty good about drafting LT at #6 in a redraft league until I came in here. The thing is, no RB is without question marks. The only other guys at that spot that I would consider over LT are S Jackson, who always seems to be injured and has no supporting cast, Chris Johnson who has had one good season and a TD vulture looming or Frank Gore, who I go back and forth on with LT.

I like SJ better.... Look at Steven Jackson's points per game here - http://ww2.sportsdatahub.com/index.php/200...nts-since-2006/

Top 10 PPF 0 PPR 2007-2008:Brian Westbrook 17.25

LaDainian Tomlinson 16.70

Adrian Peterson 16.25

Matt Forte 15.22

Steven Jackson 14.94

Brandon Jacobs 14.88

Clinton Portis 14.42

Steve Slaton 14.12

Chris Johnson 13.92

Ronnie Brown 13.59

Interesting that the top two guys on the list are on many people's "do not draft" lists this year.

That's because they did awesome in the past??? Not a surprise. Steven Jackson doing so good despite the poor play of the team is big news. If the Ram's improve then he could do great this year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The Chargers gave LT a take or leave it restructuring of his contract that paid him less in 2010 and 2011. They were ready to cut him if he didn't take it. That says a lot more to me about where LT is at this point in his career than Norv's comments.

How much more than the 6.7M that he is getting was he supposed to make?

Before renegotiation: 2010: $8 million 2011: $9.275 million After: 2010: $3 million (+ $2 million roster bonus due in March), 2011: $6.15 millionAlso, I think it's important to note that the Chargers franchised Sproles BEFORE they played contract chicken with LT.

So what are the odds that he will be cut before next March?

Zero.

Really? I would think that if he finishes the season on the shelf like he has the last two years, the chances he gets cut before that 2 mil comes due is at 50/50, probably higher.

 

[Chuckles]

Hasnt he been deteriorating for like 5 years now?

 

[Tau837]

So what are the odds that he will be cut before next March?

Zero.

Really? I would think that if he finishes the season on the shelf like he has the last two years, the chances he gets cut before that 2 mil comes due is at 50/50, probably higher.

1. I seriously doubt he will finish the season "on the shelf" as he has the past two years. The bigger issue is how effective he will be IMO. Not getting as many touches this year and not being as productive in the past does not mean he won't be one of their key players.2. LT is an all time great. He is arguably the franchise's greatest player ever. I think the team benefits from keeping him more than just by what he does on the field. And I think they know that.3. Given #2, I have a very hard time believing they would put him through the hard line renegotiation this offseason only to cut him after one year, unless he falls off a cliff this season, which I don't see happening. I don't think fans would like it, and I don't think it would send a good message to the rest of the Chargers players.4. They do not necessarily have a solution for next season without him... Johnson is unproven, and they likely prefer to keep Sproles in his special teams and part time role since he is so good at it (if he is even around for 2010). Obviously, they could take a RB in the draft, but they have to make the roster bonus decision in March. Assuming they will not have an early draft pick, can they be confident they can get the replacement they want?5. Even with the bonus, his total cost for 2010 will be $5M. I don't see that as cost prohibitive. (Again, assuming he does not fall off a cliff this season.)