[Derek Brown]
Fantasy Primer
Week 11 Jax @ Det
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, Detroit has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Last week, with Mac Jones under center, Jacksonville was third in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
Mac Jones | QB | QB2 |
Tank Bigsby | RB | Out |
Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB2/3 |
Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR3 |
Parker Washington | WR | WR6 |
Gabe Davis | WR | WR6 |
Evan Engram | TE | TE1 |
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
Jared Goff | QB | QB1 |
Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB1 |
David Montgomery | RB | RB2 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | WR1 |
Jameson Williams | WR | WR2/3 |
Sam LaPorta | TE | Out |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- Jared Goff
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
David Montgomery (RB)
Montgomery is the RB14 in fantasy, ranking 21st in carries, ninth in red zone touches, and fourth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 15.6 touches and 78.4 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should have no issues churning out yards this week. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)
Etienne should operate as the Jaguars’ workhorse back in Week 11 with Tank Bigsby out. Last week, Etienne played 68% of the snaps with 12 touches and an underwhelming 43 total yards. Make no mistake about it, this won’t be a pretty offense with Mac Jones at the helm, but Etienne should see somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 touches this week. That type of volume puts him in the RB2/3 conversation. Among 50 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the 13th-highest success rate to gap runs (Etienne 61.4% gap).
If Dougie P is smart, he’ll lean on Etienne and the ground game this week.
Jameson Williams (WR)
Williams had a quiet return to the lineup last week with three receptions and 53 scoreless receiving yards (WR41). Overall, Williams is the WR34 in fantasy points per game and has eight deep targets in seven games played, but he hasn’t seen a red-zone look since Week 2.
Williams has a 16.8% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has utilized two high at the second-highest rate in the NFL (63.5%). Against two-high, Williams has ranked second on the team in TPRR (25%) and YPRR (2.07) while seeing a 31.6% first-read share. Williams could pop off with a big game this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Evan Engram (TE)
In the two games since Christian Kirk has been out, Engram has led the team in slot routes (44.2% slot). Last week, he led the team with a 36.4% target share and a 31.13% first-read share. He finished with eight targets, six receptions, and 40 scoreless receiving yards as the TE10 for the week. Engram is in a great spot this week.
Slot receivers have destroyed Detroit. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players to fade this week.
Mac Jones (QB)
Ah, Cooper Rush of the AFC. Woof. What a performance last week. Jones finished with 111 passing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt, and a 0:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio as the QB25 for the week.
I have zero interest in playing Jones against a pass defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the second-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. No, thank you.
Tank Bigsby (RB)
Bigsby has been ruled out for Week 11 (ankle).
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)
Last week, with Mac Jones at the helm, Thomas Jr. had a 13.6% target share, 0.55 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. Thomas Jr. had 12 scoreless receiving yards as he finished as the WR75 for the week. That was tough to type.
This entire offense (much like DAL) has been capsized by pitiful quarterback play, and I don’t think it looks much (if any) better this week. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Thomas this week.
Parker Washington (WR)
Washington is droppable. Last week, he didn’t draw a target while managing a 51.9% route share. Evan Engram is the team’s preferred slot option in the passing attack.
Sam LaPorta (TE)
LaPorta has been ruled out for Week 11 (shoulder).