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**Jaguars at Lions** (-13.5, 47.0) 1:00 (1 Viewer)

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
@FBG Moderator @Joe Bryant

DETROIT LIONS
Injury report
PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Sam LaPortaTEShoulderDNP DNP DNP out
Brodric MartinDLKneeFP FP FP out
Ifeatu MelifonwuSAnkle/FingerFP LP DNP out
Emmanuel MoseleyCBPectoralFP FP FP out
Ben NiemannLBAnkle(-) (-) DNP questionable
Carlton DavisCBHand(-) LP FP (-)
Taylor DeckerTShoulderLP FP FP (-)
Malcolm RodriguezLBAnkleLP FP FP (-)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Injury report
PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Tank Bigsby RBAnkleDNP DNP DNP out
Tyson Campbell CBShoulderLP LP LP (-)
Ezra Cleveland GAnkleLP LP LP questionable
Gabe Davis WRShoulderLP LP LP (-)
D'Ernest Johnson RBHamstringLP LP LP (-)
Blake Hance OLKneeLP LP LP (-)
Josh Hines-Allen DEShoulderLP LP LP (-)
Trevor Lawrence QBLeft ShoulderDNP DNP DNP out
Brandon Scherff GKneeLP LP LP (-)
Maason Smith DTAnkleLP LP LP questionable
Brian Thomas Jr. WRChestLP LP LP (-)
Daniel Thomas SAFHamstringLP LP LP (-)
Keilan Robinson RBToeFP FP FP questionable
Yasir Abdullah LBHamstring(-) (-) (-)
 
[Derek Brown]

Fantasy Primer
Week 11 Jax @ Det

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 7, Detroit has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • Last week, with Mac Jones under center, Jacksonville was third in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Mac JonesQBQB2
Tank BigsbyRBOut
Travis Etienne Jr.RBRB2/3
Brian Thomas Jr.WRWR3
Parker WashingtonWRWR6
Gabe DavisWRWR6
Evan EngramTETE1

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Jared GoffQBQB1
Jahmyr GibbsRBRB1
David MontgomeryRBRB2
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRWR1
Jameson WilliamsWRWR2/3
Sam LaPortaTEOut

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.
  • Jared Goff
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery is the RB14 in fantasy, ranking 21st in carries, ninth in red zone touches, and fourth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 15.6 touches and 78.4 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should have no issues churning out yards this week. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Etienne should operate as the Jaguars’ workhorse back in Week 11 with Tank Bigsby out. Last week, Etienne played 68% of the snaps with 12 touches and an underwhelming 43 total yards. Make no mistake about it, this won’t be a pretty offense with Mac Jones at the helm, but Etienne should see somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 touches this week. That type of volume puts him in the RB2/3 conversation. Among 50 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the 13th-highest success rate to gap runs (Etienne 61.4% gap).

If Dougie P is smart, he’ll lean on Etienne and the ground game this week.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams had a quiet return to the lineup last week with three receptions and 53 scoreless receiving yards (WR41). Overall, Williams is the WR34 in fantasy points per game and has eight deep targets in seven games played, but he hasn’t seen a red-zone look since Week 2.

Williams has a 16.8% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has utilized two high at the second-highest rate in the NFL (63.5%). Against two-high, Williams has ranked second on the team in TPRR (25%) and YPRR (2.07) while seeing a 31.6% first-read share. Williams could pop off with a big game this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Evan Engram (TE)

In the two games since Christian Kirk has been out, Engram has led the team in slot routes (44.2% slot). Last week, he led the team with a 36.4% target share and a 31.13% first-read share. He finished with eight targets, six receptions, and 40 scoreless receiving yards as the TE10 for the week. Engram is in a great spot this week.

Slot receivers have destroyed Detroit. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players to fade this week.

Mac Jones (QB)

Ah, Cooper Rush of the AFC. Woof. What a performance last week. Jones finished with 111 passing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt, and a 0:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio as the QB25 for the week.

I have zero interest in playing Jones against a pass defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the second-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. No, thank you.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Bigsby has been ruled out for Week 11 (ankle).

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Last week, with Mac Jones at the helm, Thomas Jr. had a 13.6% target share, 0.55 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. Thomas Jr. had 12 scoreless receiving yards as he finished as the WR75 for the week. That was tough to type.

This entire offense (much like DAL) has been capsized by pitiful quarterback play, and I don’t think it looks much (if any) better this week. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Thomas this week.

Parker Washington (WR)

Washington is droppable. Last week, he didn’t draw a target while managing a 51.9% route share. Evan Engram is the team’s preferred slot option in the passing attack.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

LaPorta has been ruled out for Week 11 (shoulder).
 
Lions, fresh off 4 road games in 5 weeks, are home for 4 of the next 5.
  • Week 12 at Colts
  • Week 13 Bears Thanksgiving (Dan Campbell is 0-4)
  • Week 14 Packers
  • Week 15 Bills
Then it's outside for the lone weather game of the year in Chicago, a trip to the Bay area for a rematch, then back home to again finish off the year vs the Vikings.



Weekend roster moves by Detroit:
  • Signed linebacker Ezekiel Turner to the 53-man roster
    Turner was signed by the Lions last week and made his debut against the Texans on Sunday night. Turner played just special teams for the Lions, but had a pretty good game. He gets the spot after the team waived Abraham Beauplan on Tuesday. Turner has a lot of regular season experience. He played for the Cardinals for six seasons and played 80 games for them.
  • Elevate tight end James Mitchell from practice squad
    One of the rare misses of Brad Holmes; 5th round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Mitchell should have gone a lot higher in the draft, but an injury at Virginia Tech caused him to fall. Since he's been with the Lions, it just hasn't gone that well for him. He has not become the crazy athlete we saw in college. The guy the Hokies were using as a tight end, receiver and kick returner. With Sam LaPorta out for this one, this is a chance for Mitchell to show something this season. If he gets some targets, he needs to make the most of them. But reality check - it's unlikely he'll be a big part of any offensive plans today.



LaPorta is virtually the entirety of the report this week. Brod, EMan & Iffy are all in their 21-day practice window from IR-R. Not sure what's going on with Nieman but with Malcolm back he's LB5 and likely only due for ST snaps.
 
[Justin Rogers - Detroit Football Network on Substack]

Allen Park — …thoughts to end the week as the Detroit Lions prepare to play the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Fork in the road

The last time the Lions played the Jaguars, there was a reasonable perception the franchises were on parallel tracks. Obviously, neither team had turned a corner at that time, but there were signs.

The Jaguars came into the matchup at 4-7, but had won two of three, rallying past the Baltimore Ravens the previous week. The Lions were also showing signs of life after a 1-6 start to their campaign, winning three in a row before dropping a hard-fought contest to a very good Buffalo team on Thanksgiving.

Both teams had intriguing pieces and what looked to be the right coaches, given the Jaguars had turned the keys to Doug Pederson earlier that year. And the narrative of parallel paths was only strengthened by the way the two teams finished their seasons, with both ending above .500.
Jacksonville’s 9-8 record was good enough for the postseason berth.

The Lions, with the same mark, famously just missed out despite beating the Packers, at Lambeau, in the final game of the regular season.

It wasn’t until the middle of last season the franchises started going in different directions.

Despite starting 8-3, Jacksonville dropped five in a row and missed the playoffs. Detroit, also 8-3 through 11 games, would win four of their final six in the regular season, claiming their division and marching to the NFC Championship before bowing out.

The Lions have maintained their trajectory in 2024 and are among the Super Bowl favorites. The Jaguars, meanwhile, also maintained their trajectory, at least in the way they finished the previous season. They’ve been awful this year and are currently projected to pick No. 1 overall.

So what happened?

Probably the greatest divide would be how the teams have drafted the past three years. It’s not that the Jaguars have missed at every turn. Travon Walker, Devon Lloyd, Tank Bigsby and Brian Thomas Jr. are good players. But they can’t contend with the hit rate Detroit has had in the event, both quantity and quality, under general manager Brad Holmes.

Additionally, Pederson’s coordinator choices haven’t been up to snuff. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor has been more Jim Bob Cooter than Ben Johnson, starting strong and fading hard.

The Jaguars were No. 7 in scoring his first season. This year, they're 26th.

The team notably made a change at defensive coordinator this offseason, which has resulted in the bottom falling out. That unit also ranks No. 26 in scoring.
Johnson has obviously been a stud since his promotion in 2022, but defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is earning his flowers this year. The reality is his group has been getting better in each of his four seasons. The quality and continuity of Detroit's coaching staff is paying huge dividends.

That does let the mind wander a bit to what it might look like when one or both of those coordinators leave. For some teams, those changes are seamless. For others, like the Eagles after losing both coordinators two offseasons ago, there’s a readjustment process.

The Lions stared down that possibility last season, but it feels ever more realistic this year. It could be the franchise’s next challenge in its pursuit of sustained excellence, something the Jaguars have been quick to remind us is one of the most difficult things to achieve in this league.

Lucky Lions

Speaking of Walker, it didn’t happen immediately, but the former No. 1 pick is developing into an excellent player.

After recording just 3.5 sacks as a rookie, he hit double-digits in his second season. This yeas, he’s on track to bring down the QB 13 times, with approximately 60 total QB pressures for the second consecutive season.

Regardless, he’s fallen well short of Aidan Hutchinson’s impact. It’s still wild to think the Jaguars went with the Georgia standout over Hutchinson in the 2022 draft, even if Walker’s measurables were slightly more intriguing.

Hutchinson has talked about it before. Even he was perplexed and expected to be taking his talents south ahead of that draft.

It’s interesting to think about what the Lions would have done if Hutchinson had gone first overall. There was a lot of talk about Kayvon Thibodeaux ahead of that draft, but my conversations with people in the organization around that time had me doubting he would been the preferred option.

My educated guess: It would have come down to Walker or cornerback Sauce Gardner, a Detroit native.

Not bad consolation prizes, but everyone around these parts is thankful things went the way they did.
 
  • Elevate tight end James Mitchell from practice squad
    One of the rare misses of Brad Holmes; 5th round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Mitchell should have gone a lot higher in the draft

The idea that anyone calls any 5th round pick a miss shows how insanely good Brad Holmes is. A 5th round pick who even hangs around the team should be considered a win.
 
  • Elevate tight end James Mitchell from practice squad
    One of the rare misses of Brad Holmes; 5th round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Mitchell should have gone a lot higher in the draft

The idea that anyone calls any 5th round pick a miss shows how insanely good Brad Holmes is. A 5th round pick who even hangs around the team should be considered a win.

Judging him by his own standard. If you think day 3 picks are throwaways you toss one aside for a failed day 2 pick at the deadline.

But for the grace of God there go I….
 
Week 13 Bears Thanksgiving (Dan Campbell is 0-4)
One of the last historical bug a boos for this regime to straighten out. How a team that should be used to playing this game and is playing at home doesn't do better is strange. The road team should be at a disadvantage on a short week. I'm tired of looking at two turkeys on the same day. 🦁 🦃
 
Somehow the spread on this game dropped a half point
It should have gone up
Lions just win
With or without Trevor Jags are awful
I think The Lions attack early,get a lead and Gibbs and Montgomery run wild in the second half
Everybody scores for The Lions today...

Detroit- 44
Jags- 13
 
I think this is a sneaky let down game for the Lions, not saying they lose by any means, just that they meander a bit. I think St. Brown should be open all day, but I think the Jags front 7 shows up to slow the run game a bit. I also think Mac Jones hits a few nice plays before eventually crumbling. This is a lot closer than people think I believe.

Lions 27
Jaguars 20
 
The sneaky Longshot bet is for Vaki to score a TD at +3000. It may be down to +2500 now, but Vaki could be used if this turns into a blowout.
Hoping that Goff goes off after last week, I bet a prop that any QB goes for 450+ passing yards @ +2100; with eyes on Goff to get it like he did going 500+ in one week while he was a Ram. Aloso figured KC/BUF will be a shoot out as may CIN/LAC. Stroud could go off in DAL too.
 
Inter Conference mismatches with Double Digit lines, take the underdog

Detroit 30...Jaguars 17
I do it that way because I am admitting that I like the Lions plenty today, took them in Survivor but this rule is one I know well in the world of gambling
Vegas seta these lines to entice betting both sides, it' not really the analytics or stats.

If I were a complete fool I might post Jags 21 Lions 20 but jax need not win this game to cover the bet
Cheers!
 
I think this is a sneaky let down game for the Lions, not saying they lose by any means, just that they meander a bit. I think St. Brown should be open all day, but I think the Jags front 7 shows up to slow the run game a bit. I also think Mac Jones hits a few nice plays before eventually crumbling. This is a lot closer than people think I believe.

Lions 27
Jaguars 20

highly unlikely
 
I drafted Monty ideally as my RB3, then he became my RB2 quickly behind Bijan and I kept thinking he would slow down and Gibbs might rise to a 60/40 65/35 split
But Monty continues to be a valuable piece on the remaining teams I have alive for a Playoff spot
He's like a safety blanket, reliable consistency is how I would describe him
 
gotta kill the hope early when you play bad teams

don’t let them think this is the week they get it turned around

Lions’ vets know that bc 2-3 years ago they were today’s Jags
 
true confession

was so unworried about today took wifey out for brunch after service

it’s low 60s & sunny in the West Village

11th quick strike touchdown of the year for the Lions per Dan Miller
 

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