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Jamaal Charles Thread: Hall of Famer? (1 Viewer)
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Charles with 72 yards and a td on 11 carries
Davis -5 and a fumble with 1 carry
"timeshare"
Davis -5 and a fumble with 1 carry
"timeshare"
G
General Tso
Guest
Uh, you do realize that it took until the 2nd quarter of week 10 for Charles to surpass Davis in terms of total carries for the season, correct? You have to be some sort of idiot to come into this thread after another so-so 15 carry performance hyping a guy that many drafted as the #1 overall player in fantasy football this season.My argument this entire thread has been that Charles, coming into this season, was over-rated as a an all-purpose running back, and that with the early season injury and emergence of Knile Davis during his absence Charles would see a noticeably decreased workload and fantasy production for the season. You can spin it any way you want my friend, but that statement has proven to be nothing but true.
Coming into this game Charles was #21 in terms of RB carries for the season and #11 in traditional scoring. I'm tired of doing the math for you guys but I'm willing to bet that those numbers are down significantly over last year. And it's not just the stats. The eye test also has me concerned. He didn't look right today. I wasn't listening to the audio but it looked at one point in a sideline shot that he has some sort of injury. This is what we should have expected with Charles this year. He's a small dude, he was overworked last year, his Coach is a pass-happy lunatic, and he's got a young bruising type of backup RB (and fortunately for Charles one that can't hold onto the football) behind him.
Sorry guys, but Charles has been a disappointment this season as the #1 overall pick. He hasn't been a total bust, but he hasn't been a good return on investment either.
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G
General Tso
Guest
If you guys want to present anything factual or substantive to the thread you are more than welcome. Disagree with me if you want, but at least put in an effort.
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joffer
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I'm not disagreeing with you GT.
But let's take today. How many RBs that were in starting lineups outperformed him? Exactly two, Lynch and Forsett.
Over the last six games/seven weeks, he's averaging roughly 20 PPG. Who does better than that? About 4-5 others, at most: Bell, Forte, Foster, Lynch (but not before today), Murray.
No, Charles is not a monster or clear #1 this year. But I don't need him to be, I lead the league in points.
The way he's performed the last month and a half isn't exactly killing FF owners. You're arguments seem kind of hollow.
But let's take today. How many RBs that were in starting lineups outperformed him? Exactly two, Lynch and Forsett.
Over the last six games/seven weeks, he's averaging roughly 20 PPG. Who does better than that? About 4-5 others, at most: Bell, Forte, Foster, Lynch (but not before today), Murray.
No, Charles is not a monster or clear #1 this year. But I don't need him to be, I lead the league in points.
The way he's performed the last month and a half isn't exactly killing FF owners. You're arguments seem kind of hollow.
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General Tso
Guest
Weak. You fan boys are pretty sad. You should take the circle jerk to the Chiefs fan forum.
flapgreen
Footballguy
You told us!
G
General Tso
Guest
OMG - a sign of intelligent life in the universe!! Thank you thank you thank you. Seriously.Like I said, he has not been a bust. He's be a mid to low end #1, which is about right where I had him pegged. But the fanboys in here have not wanted to acknowledge that reality all season.
I'm putting some numbers together comparing last season to this one... Developing....
flapgreen
Footballguy
Why do you feel the need to try to convince us of anything? I get that it makes you feel smart to call us all idiots but you're the only one coming off looking foolish. He 4th in PPR league since coming back in week 4, behind Foster, Forte and Murray. This isn't an exact science, dude. He isn't the number 1 RB on the year. We all see it. I don't think many people saw him repeating last year. But he's up there since returning from injury and has been consistent. It's hard to expect a guy to reproduce the numbers he put up last year. That type of production happens every few years. Forte is only other guy taken early who's producing like a #1. You take Murray or Foster in top 10? Doubt it. You don't have to try and convince anyone of anything or try to look smarter than the rest of us. Most of us are pretty happy with what we're getting in a game of uncertainty.
Charles was hurt in week 2. Since he's returned, he has "only" put up 616 yards and 8 TDs. In six games.
Over a full season, that would pro-rate out to 1642 yards and 21 TDs. Is it as good as last year? No, but last year was a historically great season. They're called "career years" because backs typically don't match them. It would be good for 292 points in standard, though, which would have ranked him... 2nd last year, behind only himself. So yeah, he's been a league-winning stud since he got back. It sucks that he bombed in week 1 and got hurt in week 2, but suggesting that he's not living up to his draft status? Nah, I'm just not seeing it.
Over a full season, that would pro-rate out to 1642 yards and 21 TDs. Is it as good as last year? No, but last year was a historically great season. They're called "career years" because backs typically don't match them. It would be good for 292 points in standard, though, which would have ranked him... 2nd last year, behind only himself. So yeah, he's been a league-winning stud since he got back. It sucks that he bombed in week 1 and got hurt in week 2, but suggesting that he's not living up to his draft status? Nah, I'm just not seeing it.
Shutout
Footballguy
Here's something factual: this guy you are calling a bust and a disappointment is putting up points and helping owners win.
So I think you are wrong when you say us owners must be disappointed and crying.
Got the "Frozen" route and let it go. Stop picking nits and manufacturing storylines. Face it, no matter who the player is, anyone can make a story on why their player is a"disappointment in relation to expectations". I might be "disappointed" that Arian Foster missed a few games but I keep it in perspective. This isn't a hobby where the only measure of success is you win every game every week in a blowout. Unfortunately, there are many who treat it that way.
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General Tso
Guest
Jamaal Charles - a comparison of 2014 and 2013 game averages in games he has played...
In full disclosure, I did not include week 17 from 2013 and week 3 from 2014, both weeks he didn't play. I did include week 2 of 2014 in the numbers even though he came out of the game early.
games rushes rush yds rush td receps rec yds rec td touches tot yards fant points 2014 avg 8 14.1 66.6 0.8 2.5 16.1 0.3 16.6 82.8 14.3 2013 avg 15 17.3 85.8 0.8 4.7 46.2 0.5 21.9 132.0 20.8 Diff -18.2% -22.3% -6.3% -46.4% -65.1% -46.4% -24.2% -37.3% -31.4% His utilization (# touches per game) is down 24.2%.
His performance (total fantasy points traditional) is down 31.4%.
Having watched him this year I can say that I am definitely disappointed. Charles hasn't had a 100 yard rushing game this season. Knile Davis has had 2. The best rushing game of the season was when JC was out of the lineup - the 132 yard effort by Davis in week 3 against a very good Miami defense. In the last 5 weeks, where Charles has been supposedly 100% healthy, he has averaged 16.2 fantasy points.
Sorry, but I expect a lot better out of my #1 RB, nevermind the #1 overall pick in the draft.
In full disclosure, I did not include week 17 from 2013 and week 3 from 2014, both weeks he didn't play. I did include week 2 of 2014 in the numbers even though he came out of the game early.
games rushes rush yds rush td receps rec yds rec td touches tot yards fant points 2014 avg 8 14.1 66.6 0.8 2.5 16.1 0.3 16.6 82.8 14.3 2013 avg 15 17.3 85.8 0.8 4.7 46.2 0.5 21.9 132.0 20.8 Diff -18.2% -22.3% -6.3% -46.4% -65.1% -46.4% -24.2% -37.3% -31.4% His utilization (# touches per game) is down 24.2%.
His performance (total fantasy points traditional) is down 31.4%.
Having watched him this year I can say that I am definitely disappointed. Charles hasn't had a 100 yard rushing game this season. Knile Davis has had 2. The best rushing game of the season was when JC was out of the lineup - the 132 yard effort by Davis in week 3 against a very good Miami defense. In the last 5 weeks, where Charles has been supposedly 100% healthy, he has averaged 16.2 fantasy points.
Sorry, but I expect a lot better out of my #1 RB, nevermind the #1 overall pick in the draft.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Other than the game he left in the first quarter he's averaging 19ppg. i.e. RB6
Calling that a bust or a disappointment is pretty silly.
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General Tso
Guest
This lousy editor won't paste my table in correctly... I'll have to lay it out this way...
Once again, these are his per game averages, taking out the games he didn't play in both seasons...
# Rushes
2013 - 17.3
2014 - 14.1
change = -18.2%
Rush Yards
2013 - 85.8
2014 - 66.6
change = -22.3%
Rush TD's
2013 - 0.80
2014 - 0.75
change = -6.3%
# Recepts
2013 - 4.7
2014 - 2.5
change = -46.4%
Rec Yards
2013 - 46.2
2014 - 16.1
change = -65.1%
Rec TD's
2013 - 0.47
2014 - 0.25
change = -46.4%
Total Touches
2013 - 21.9
2014 - 16.6
change = -24.2%
Total Yards
2013 - 132.0
2014 - 82.8
change = -37.3%
Fantasy Points
2013 - 20.8
2014 - 14.3
change = -31.4%
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
G
General Tso
Guest
The biggest change from last year to this
Anyhow, even if you want to cherry pick the numbers and only compare the last 6 weeks to 2013, this is is how it looks:
# Touches -9.6%
Total Yards -22.2%
Fantasy Points -12.2%
I don't understand why you'd exclude week 1 from the numbers. He certainly wasn't injured then. He just sucked that week.
Anyhow, even if you want to cherry pick the numbers and only compare the last 6 weeks to 2013, this is is how it looks:
# Touches -9.6%
Total Yards -22.2%
Fantasy Points -12.2%
G
General Tso
Guest
The big change over 2013 is the complete falloff in the receiving game. This season, through week 10, he only has one game with over 20 yards receiving. Last year, through week 10, he only had one game with less than 20 yards receiving.
His receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns are down about 50% from last year. And with KC's anemic WR corp, you'd think he'd be as involved if not more-so in the passing game this year. Some of this falls on the QB and Coach to be sure.
His receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns are down about 50% from last year. And with KC's anemic WR corp, you'd think he'd be as involved if not more-so in the passing game this year. Some of this falls on the QB and Coach to be sure.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
keep moving the goalposts. your argument was the that Davis would hurt his value. You were wrong, you can admit it or you can change the argument
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Good Lord GT...whats the point of your point?
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Okay, but again, last year was a career year. A guy doesn't have to match it in order to live up to his draft position. The year after Tomlinson broke the TD record, his fantasy points were down by 28%. 28%- more than twice as big of a drop as Charles! Of course, Tomlinson was still the #1 running back in all of fantasy football the following season...
I'm not ignoring week 1. It happened. He sucked. Everyone started him in week 2 and he guy hurt, and that sucked. He missed week 3, and that sucked. Lots of Jamaal Charles owners got off to slow starts. That sucks. It happens. Since then, though, Charles is averaging more fantasy points than any back except for Forte, Foster, and Murray. I'm pretty good with that. And as long as he keeps it up into the playoffs, I don't much care what he did in the first three weeks.
Let's look at this another way: the top 12 fantasy players by preseason ADP were McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Calvin, Forte, Lacy, Demaryius, Peyton, Graham, Bryant, Green, and Rodgers. How many of those guys would you have rather had instead of Jamaal Charles to this point? Forte, no question. Demaryius probably, and possibly Dez, too. Green, Calvin, and Peterson have missed more time than Charles did. McCoy and Lacy have underperformed more than Charles did. Peyton and Rodgers have been pretty solid, though it's tough to take a QB in the first. Graham? Eh, he hasn't been terrible, but he's been the #3 TE to this point of the season- not what you want when you spend a first rounder at the position.
Regardless of how you feel about Charles, it's probably pretty safe to say that two thirds of owners are more disappointed with their first round pick right now.
G
General Tso
Guest
Dude, seriously, quit being such a Richard about this. This is a long thread that has spanned two seasons and I've made many points in here at many different times. Where I think you became fixated on things was when I refuted the ridiculously premature argument by Andrew74 halfway during the week 4 Patriots game that Davis wasn't still a significant part of the running game at that point. And the balance of the game bore out that argument as Davis finished with roughly the same amount of carries and yards.
My main argument throughout this season, that apparently seems to hit a nerve with all the KC fans in here, is that Jamaal Charles was an overvalued commodity coming into the 2014 fantasy season and would likely see a significant drop in both output and production. I cited the emergence of Kniles Davis as one of those reasons. And early in the season this definitely did have a negative impact on Charles' production. Not so much anymore... especially after that horrible fumble today from Davis. But he's still a talented, bruising style runner and will still threaten to eat up touches from Charles for the remainder of the year, even at the goal-line and during those vital garbage time moments when so many fantasy points are compiled. I've cited other reasons as well for Charles' likely drop-off in production, including his potential for injury given his slight frame and over-usage in 2013.
All of this has born itself out as evidenced by the numbers, which show that even in the games that Charles has played he is still way off his 2013 numbers. Not a little off. WAY off. As in 30-40% off.
If you want to continue coming in here touting a 15 carry performance with 17.8 fantasy points as somehow evidence disproving my main arguments in this thread, then by all means continue. But at least back it up with some sort of position of your own, or something that contributes to the debate from a factual standpoint.
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General Tso
Guest
Well, remember, if you include weeks 1 and 2 in Charles' numbers his average fantasy points are down 31.4%. And unlike Tomlinson, Charles is not the #1 running back in fantasy football this season.
It's kind of insightful that the best view of Charles' season - the last 6 games - yields results that even when singled out aren't all that spectacular. He's averaged 16.2 points over that period. Yeah, good - but certainly not great. Yeah, that number may wind up being 4th best among RB's, but I don't consider that a great number, not from a value standpoint and not something I'd expect out of a #1 overall pick.
To be fair though, you have to look at Charles' production over the full season, and from that view you'd have to say he's been a disappointment. Let's look at the first half of the fantasy regular season - weeks 1-6, and Charles' point production:
Week 1 - 3.4
Week 2 - 1.2
Week 3 - dnp
Week 4 - 28.8
Week 5 - 8.4
Week 6 - Bye
And further aggravating things is that his big week for the season was the week 4 performance against the Pats (28.8 points) where he was a game time decision, and because the game was on a Monday night many fantasy owners (at least those that didn't have Davis on the roster) didn't play Charles that week.
I still hold out hope for Charles. His schedule gets pretty juicy after the Seattle game next week, and it was during weeks 12-16 last year that he put up some monster numbers. We shall see.
flapgreen
Footballguy
No kidding
AGREE.... look at davis' career stats... he has a lot of fumbles (talking fumbles not just fumbles lost).... at some point you can't keep putting this kid out there and d'anthoy thomas will steal backup work
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General Tso
Guest
No, he's the #4 RB over the last 6 games.On the season he's #11. If he finishes #4 you won't hear me complain.
G
General Tso
Guest
The only thing asinine here is you. Davis was a big part of the offense that night, especially during the first half. HE OUT-RUSHED CHARLES IN THE FIRST HALF. No he didn't have as many carries - Charles had 10 and he had 5. But at that point in the season he was eating into Charles' numbers.All water under the bridge now. I think Davis is in the doghouse after yesterday's fumble.
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BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Andrew74
Footballguy
Good point.
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General Tso
Guest
"Have you forgotten your scripture, the thirteenth scroll? 'And Proteus brought the upright beast into the garden and chained him to a tree and the children did make sport of him.'"
-Planet of the Apes, 1968. Apes talking about humans...
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
GT: Who should have been the number one overall pick?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I'm new to this thread. Owned JC on a championship team last year, got him on 2/3 redraft teams this year. Every time I have seen this bumped, I read the title and say 'yup', go read something else.
Anyway, has it been one guys opinion versus the world for 16 pages?
Anyway, has it been one guys opinion versus the world for 16 pages?
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
It was either JC or McCoy in most leagues, though some bought into the 'he'll catch 70 balls this year' hype for ADP.
T J
Footballguy
I took Charles in a $200 budget auction draft for $67. He was the 3rd most expensive player behind manning and AP. In retrospect were there other guys who woulda been better values? Sure. But as an owner, I'm very, VERY happy to plug him in every week knowing he's going to get me 20ish points in a PPR league. The beginning of the year started slow, but this is a marathon, not a sprint. There are not many backs I'd rather have right now and to me, that's what makes a #1 pick worth it or not. He's been more than worth it to me, and I'm guessing for the great majority of his owners.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
5 straight games with a TD.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
another ho hum first half for charles
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