Jamal Lewis worries ? (1 Viewer)

[cmap]

http://www.draftsharks.com/

The headline without getting the paid article is "Jamal Lewis Might Go On PUP List".

From their freebie mailing list I received the following -

** Ravens Insider reports RB Jamal Lewis (ankle) could begin training

camp on the physically unable to perform list. Though it doesn't mean he

would be unavailable for the preseason or the regular-season opener,

it's not a good sign. We've issued numerous warnings about Lewis, who is

still confined to that Atlanta halfway house after being released from

prison last month and he's missed all the minicamps, meetings and

offseason workouts. In addition, Lewis was never allowed any post-op visits

for his ankle (he had surgery in February) while in the pokey. Jamal

has a lot of catching up to do and probably needs close monitoring when

he is finally completely free on August 1st (which is 2 days after camp

starts), hence the possible PUP list designation.

 

[oddball]

He will be 'warming' up for the first 2-3 games thats all. I'm still taking him in the second half of the first round

 

[Bri]

I doubt he's "physically unable to perform" It's been a long time since his surgery. I'm trying to remember myself, friends,+family's follow-up visits that I went to and can't recall any really making a difference. It's always been like a doublecheck. Can you? In your personal experience? Some veterans breeze thru camp some can miss most of it and don't miss a beat. His draft value is falling a little bit and hopefully stuff like this will make him fall further. Then, nope no worries.

 

[Jason Wood]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

 

[bigalgreek]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

I agree, I had him last year and he hurt me with his injuries, but I think he'll be much better this year.

 

[RBM]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

 

[fruity pebbles]

He seems to be on everyone's "want to draft" list and is quickly becoming overvalued IMO.

 

[Jason Wood]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

Just so I'm clear, do you disagree with my conclusion or the fact that Lewis, absent his 2,000 yard season, has been remarkably consistent and not worthy of RB1 consideration?

 

[Jason Wood]

Not sure if everyone saw this on the site today:

(LINK) Jamal Lewis Player Spotlight

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Here's the thing about Jamal Lewis...his 2,000-yard season throws a monkey wrench into an otherwise remarkably consistent (albeit unspectacular) performer.

Rushing (Per Game) Averages, 2000-2004

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs
2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs
2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs\Singing\Which one of these things is doing its own thing? \Singing\

In three of four seasons, Lewis provided essentially identical production regardless of the team's overall offensive effectiveness, which QB was at the helm, and how strong the defense was. The one thing we knew for sure was that Lewis was going to get his share of carries, but otherwise there was nothing particularly Earth-shattering about his production. Add to that very forgettable receiving stats, and Lewis is pretty much a yardage compiler and decent fantasy RB2...who just happens to have a 2,000 yard rushing season to his credit.

But we obviously can't forget about his 2,000 yard season, particularly because of the company he keeps by netting that mark.

Eric Dickerson - 2,105 yards (1984)
Barry Sanders - 2,053 yards (1997)
Terrell Davis - 2,008 yards (1998)
O.J. Simpson - 2,003 yards (1973)When you sit among that list of all-time talents, it's tough to simply throw out Lewis' 2003 season because his other three seasons were so consistently pedestrian. So what should fantasy leaguers do?



My recommendation = Don't forget about Lewis' monster season, just don't overvalue its significance.

Here is what we KNOW about Jamal Lewis:

...IF Lewis is given a monster workload, he can power out the yardage

...He seemingly gets stronger the more carries he's given

...He's not been a major factor in the Ravens' passing game

...Lewis hasn't been a particularly productive scorer, on a per touch basis

...In three of four seasons he's been a 19 carry, 4.35 yards per carry runner

...The Ravens defense appears ready to dominate this year

...The Ravens have a young, unproven QB (Kyle Boller)

...Jim Fassel was hired to help increase offensive productivity and he has promised to call a more balanced (read: passing oriented) gameplan

Positives

Lewis is a prototypical power back, combining rare size with top end speed He's got a 2,000 yard rushing season to his credit

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more, it should open up lanes for Lewis to run as opposing defenses REALLY stacked the line against him in 2003
Jim Fassel is a considerable upgrade at offensive coordinator, he should be able to better exploit the entire team's talents, including LewisNegatives

Lewis has already missed an entire season with a torn ACL and is coming off ankle surgery this offseason
Lewis' value is tied heavily into his carries and subsequent rushing yardage, he's neither a productive receiver nor a tremendously effective scorer
With Chester Taylor re-signed, and Lewis limited as a receiver, he may be more of a two down runner than otherwise expected
The team seems hellbent on throwing the ball more even though running with Lewis + the Ravens defense seems an ideal way to win a LOT of games
Lewis is going to miss at least part of training camp as he serves out the terms of his convictionFinal Thoughts

Personally, I think Lewis' outlook is fairly cut and dry. If he's healthy, he'll get 300 or so carries, have a solid YPC (4.3-4.5), and score 7-10 touchdowns without contributing much as a receiver. With an upgraded WR corps, Boller entering his 2nd year as a starter, and a new set of offensive coaches, the Ravens seem committed to becoming a better passing team; so I just don't see a scenario where Lewis gets enough touches to come close to his 4th place fantasy finish in 2003. He's a solid fantasy RB2 and should be drafted accordingly. If someone wants to draft Lewis in the early- to mid-first round expecting a repeat of his 2003 season (which appears quite the anomaly), let them, but don't hesitate to grab him (particularly in yardage heavy leagues) as a 2nd rounder.

 

[nortobc]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year.

You have got to be kidding me. He only has the record for most yards in a single game, putting up nearly 300 YARDS...after talking sh&t to the Browns and telling them he was going to do it!! They had 9...yes 9 guys in the box the entire game. He also had a 60 yards run called back on a holding penalty that was on the other side of the field and had nothing to do with his run. He would have cleared 350 yards in a single game! When healthy, Lewis is the BEST pure RB in football...hands down. I don't know what the hell you are smoking but I wish you were in my draft.I understand your concern about his injury or the jail time, but to call Jamal Lewis a "pedestrian and decent RB2" is just absurd. When he retires, he will be one the top 5 RBs in NFL history.

 

[Banger]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs 2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs 2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs 2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDsAs far as his #'s go...the 1st year he was a rookie, the 2nd year he was coming off a knee injury (and still avg'd 4.3 ypc), the 3rd year he blew up and last year he was banged up/suspended. Many people seem to think the fact that the ravens are going to pass the ball more will hurt him, I think the exact opposite. I can't help but think that not seeing 8-9 in the box EVERY snap will only help him dominate even more. In the past the only wr defenses needed to respect was Heap and last year he was injured nearly the whole year. Every team knew every series that it was 1st down Jamal, 2nd down Jamal, 3rd down pass and hope to continue the drive. EVERY SERIES. They were the worst passing team the past two years and the guy still averaged over 4 YPC with the most predictable offense in football. That's amazing. Give that offense a little balance and a little unpredictability and there's no telling how good he can be.

 

[ninerfan]

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year...

 

[heyshady]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs

2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

As far as his #'s go...the 1st year he was a rookie, the 2nd year he was coming off a knee injury (and still avg'd 4.3 ypc), the 3rd year he blew up and last year he was banged up/suspended.

If they can get ANY semblence of a passing game going he will easily hit the 5.0 ypc mark and 12 TDs... easily. He is getting 4.4 by himself. One would hope the TEAM could kick in another 1.0 for him.

 

[BrentBlack]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year.

I understand your concern about his injury or the jail time, but to call Jamal Lewis a "pedestrian and decent RB2" is just absurd. When he retires, he will be one the top 5 RBs in NFL history.

 

[Chaos]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs

2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

As far as his #'s go...the 1st year he was a rookie, the 2nd year he was coming off a knee injury (and still avg'd 4.3 ypc), the 3rd year he blew up and last year he was banged up/suspended.

Many people seem to think the fact that the ravens are going to pass the ball more will hurt him, I think the exact opposite. I can't help but think that not seeing 8-9 in the box EVERY snap will only help him dominate even more. In the past the only wr defenses needed to respect was Heap and last year he was injured nearly the whole year. Every team knew every series that it was 1st down Jamal, 2nd down Jamal, 3rd down pass and hope to continue the drive. EVERY SERIES. They were the worst passing team the past two years and the guy still averaged over 4 YPC with the most predictable offense in football. That's amazing. Give that offense a little balance and a little unpredictability and there's no telling how good he can be.

I'm a little surprised at Wood's lack of perception or depth of research on this one. He just spouts the numbers without looking further. Bravo to you for doing so.

 

[Bri]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs

2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

As far as his #'s go...the 1st year he was a rookie, the 2nd year he was coming off a knee injury (and still avg'd 4.3 ypc), the 3rd year he blew up and last year he was banged up/suspended.

Many people seem to think the fact that the ravens are going to pass the ball more will hurt him, I think the exact opposite. I can't help but think that not seeing 8-9 in the box EVERY snap will only help him dominate even more. In the past the only wr defenses needed to respect was Heap and last year he was injured nearly the whole year. Every team knew every series that it was 1st down Jamal, 2nd down Jamal, 3rd down pass and hope to continue the drive. EVERY SERIES. They were the worst passing team the past two years and the guy still averaged over 4 YPC with the most predictable offense in football. That's amazing. Give that offense a little balance and a little unpredictability and there's no telling how good he can be.

Ogden+ his linemates deserve some credit here

 

[LTsharks]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs

2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

As far as his #'s go...the 1st year he was a rookie, the 2nd year he was coming off a knee injury (and still avg'd 4.3 ypc), the 3rd year he blew up and last year he was banged up/suspended.

Many people seem to think the fact that the ravens are going to pass the ball more will hurt him, I think the exact opposite. I can't help but think that not seeing 8-9 in the box EVERY snap will only help him dominate even more. In the past the only wr defenses needed to respect was Heap and last year he was injured nearly the whole year. Every team knew every series that it was 1st down Jamal, 2nd down Jamal, 3rd down pass and hope to continue the drive. EVERY SERIES. They were the worst passing team the past two years and the guy still averaged over 4 YPC with the most predictable offense in football. That's amazing. Give that offense a little balance and a little unpredictability and there's no telling how good he can be.

Sometimes I wonder if people have actually watched this guy play football. Are some of the above reasons "excuses" for his consistent performance? sure they are, but you can't just ignore the factors that have produced those numbers. The guy is an absolute stud running back in the nfl. I'm not saying that makes him a top 5 fantasy back, but lets not get carried away with the negative remarks. Funny how some comments seem to imply that a better passing attack will hurt him. More balance and scoring chances, combined with a defense to keep the other O off the field = for Jamal

 

[Bri]

There's a fine line with the passing helping him. Since he was successful running it could be thought of as less carries when they pass and yet(as was said) more YPC when they do run. I'm really not sure where I stand on this. I expected Billick to have an impressive offense years ago and I was dead wrong. Now I'm totally lost.

 

[Bri]

can anyone remember Billick as OC? Was he creative and all or just a product of the system?

 

[Family Matters]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year.

You have got to be kidding me. He only has the record for most yards in a single game, putting up nearly 300 YARDS...after talking sh&t to the Browns and telling them he was going to do it!! They had 9...yes 9 guys in the box the entire game.

So that tells you exactly how HORRENDOUS that Browns D was that surrendered 500 of his 2000 yards. That will never happen again. 1400 yards and 7-8 TD's is Jamal's wheelhouse.

When he retires, he will be one the top 5 RBs in NFL history.

Easy now.

 

[Jason Wood]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year.

You have got to be kidding me. He only has the record for most yards in a single game, putting up nearly 300 YARDS...after talking sh&t to the Browns and telling them he was going to do it!! They had 9...yes 9 guys in the box the entire game. He also had a 60 yards run called back on a holding penalty that was on the other side of the field and had nothing to do with his run. He would have cleared 350 yards in a single game! When healthy, Lewis is the BEST pure RB in football...hands down. I don't know what the hell you are smoking but I wish you were in my draft.I understand your concern about his injury or the jail time, but to call Jamal Lewis a "pedestrian and decent RB2" is just absurd. When he retires, he will be one the top 5 RBs in NFL history.

2000 -- RB16 despite being 8th in rushes
2002 -- RB12 despite being 8th in rushes
2003 -- RB4 despite having 387 carries!
2004 -- RB25 in 12 games (RB19 on a per game basis)That, my friends, is the very DEFINITION of a fantasy RB2. You don't win championships drafting a guy like that in the first round.

As to a few other points made...

1) RE: Ogden...last time I checked Ogden was on the team for all four of Jam's non-injured seasons

2) RE: Ravens throwing the ball...I make it very clear I think Jam should get 300 carries. People need to recognize that that number isn't insignificant.

Number of RBs with 300 carries, per season

2004 -- Nine (9)
2003 -- Thirteen (13)
2002 -- Nine (9)
2001 -- Ten (10)
2000 -- Nine (9)And if we raise the bar just slightly more (i.e., 320 carries or "20 carries a game")...

2004 -- Eight (8)
2003 -- Nine (9)
2002 -- Five (5)
2001 -- Five (5)
2000 -- Five (5)You can argue against the numbers all you want, but the fact remains that the only year Jam was a top TEN fantasy back much less top FIVE was in a season when he had 387 carries (tied for the 11th most in NFL HISTORY)

3) As to watching Jamal play...I've seen him play. Not as much as Ravens fans but probably as much as any other football fan. And just so you know, one of my partners in my fund is a Ravens season ticket holder whose best friend works for the Ravens. I don't share intel from him that's proprietary out of respect, but I've got all the confidence in the world that when he tells me that Billick is hellbent on RUNNING LESS, whether or not I think it's best for the team, I'm going to listen to them.

Again, at no point did I say Jamal was a bad fantasy back. I said he would be a solid RB2 in the SECOND ROUND. But if you take him in the first, you are VERY LIKELY overvaluing him based on a completely unattainable season that by any analysis was the exception not the rule.

 

[Rhino802]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

As a Raven's fan, there is no question that Jamal is an awesome NFL back. As a fantasy guy, he is not a great goal line back and inconsistent in terms of TDs. There is no question that the Ravens will throw the ball more often this year including the Red Zone (think 3 big targets -Heap, Moore and Hymes). Jamal will still get 300 carries and will likely have more receiving yards (he is both underutilized and underappreciated as a receiver).

Also, in his best season, teams were jamming 8 guys in the box. If you look closely at the #s for '03, Jam's highest yds/carry were to the right side (a mystery at first considering Ogden is the LT) - why you ask, because he the right side of the line was pushing defenders to the outside while Ogden and Mulitalo were able to push 3-4 defenders towards the center, thus creating large cut-back lanes. His increase in yards per carry was the result of more big runs than he had in any other season. Obviously, teams ostensibly will not be able to jam 8 guys in the box this year so Jamal should have more consistency in terms of yards per carry but probably fewer of the big runs, thus his ypc is not likely to be much higher than 4.4.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

I hear he's walking a bit bow legged now too...

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

Just so I'm clear, do you disagree with my conclusion or the fact that Lewis, absent his 2,000 yard season, has been remarkably consistent and not worthy of RB1 consideration?

Just so you're clear, I disagree with both. You can cough up all the stats you want -- to bolster your opinion. What is lost in that is the situation Lewis was in. The Ravens are a running team, and everybody knows it. You don't think that's tougher on the runner? Well, your stats don't show that.And I find it humorous that you choose to, more or less, toss aside one of the best seasons an RB EVER had, in favor of PREVIOUS "pedestrian" seasons. It wasn't a game we can find excuses for, it was a season. What was it, an aberration? A 16-game mirage? Chester Taylor's new contract? Whoopee.

But, let's go back to situations again. Lewis now finds himself in probably the best surroundings of his career...with a chip on his shoulder. We are forecasting here, right? Why is year one that important to you? His 2,000 yard season is clearly a better indication, with more recency to boot, of what he could do THIS YEAR. That's what I care most about.

Quite honestly, how you see it otherwise, is beyond me.

 

[BlackHole]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

Just so I'm clear, do you disagree with my conclusion or the fact that Lewis, absent his 2,000 yard season, has been remarkably consistent and not worthy of RB1 consideration?

Just so you're clear, I disagree with both. You can cough up all the stats you want -- to bolster your opinion. What is lost in that is the situation Lewis was in. The Ravens are a running team, and everybody knows it. You don't think that's tougher on the runner? Well, your stats don't show that.And I find it humorous that you choose to, more or less, toss aside one of the best seasons an RB EVER had, in favor of PREVIOUS "pedestrian" seasons. It wasn't a game we can find excuses for, it was a season. What was it, an aberration? A 16-game mirage? Chester Taylor's new contract? Whoopee.

But, let's go back to situations again. Lewis now finds himself in probably the best surroundings of his career...with a chip on his shoulder. We are forecasting here, right? Why is year one that important to you? His 2,000 yard season is clearly a better indication, with more recency to boot, of what he could do THIS YEAR. That's what I care most about.

Quite honestly, how you see it otherwise, is beyond me.

I personally agree about the situation Jamal will be in this year, as being the best he's had.I also have my questions/concerns on his injury, as was the real question of this post. Since I have him in two $$$ keeper leagues, I am truely concerned about the recovery time and ability to handle the NFL pounding from this type of injury.

Who's girlfriend is it that does such a good job on prognosis of injuries and how it can/will relate to the NFL world? Is it tommygunz's?

I forget now, but I'd like to hear from some people with medical insight into Jamals injury and what we can reasonably expect his chances of a full season might be.

 

[VICK-tory]

Draftsharks called his bad year in 04 and I'm still with them on Lewis. too much to worry about. The ankle, the offseason prison time without any proper cond. program, his ACL history, one bad urine test away from being Banned, the fact that he doesn't catch balls- Chester Taylor getting more carries. Man I like him, I had Jamal a couple years ago but I would only spend a 3rd rd. pick on him this year.. So that means he's not on my team for sure.

 

[Jason Wood]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

Just so I'm clear, do you disagree with my conclusion or the fact that Lewis, absent his 2,000 yard season, has been remarkably consistent and not worthy of RB1 consideration?

Just so you're clear, I disagree with both. You can cough up all the stats you want -- to bolster your opinion. What is lost in that is the situation Lewis was in. The Ravens are a running team, and everybody knows it. You don't think that's tougher on the runner? Well, your stats don't show that.And I find it humorous that you choose to, more or less, toss aside one of the best seasons an RB EVER had, in favor of PREVIOUS "pedestrian" seasons. It wasn't a game we can find excuses for, it was a season. What was it, an aberration? A 16-game mirage? Chester Taylor's new contract? Whoopee.

But, let's go back to situations again. Lewis now finds himself in probably the best surroundings of his career...with a chip on his shoulder. We are forecasting here, right? Why is year one that important to you? His 2,000 yard season is clearly a better indication, with more recency to boot, of what he could do THIS YEAR. That's what I care most about.

Quite honestly, how you see it otherwise, is beyond me.

Couple things...1) I IMPLORE you to read the ENTIRE post of people you're arguing with...at what point did I ever say "toss aside his 2,000 yard season" I go through the process of pointing out that he's had three mirror image seasons, none of which were that impressive AND another season which ranks among the all-time greats (for rushing YARDAGE)

2) More recency? His 2004 season is the most recent...and that was 19 carries per game and 4.3 YPC

3) We're talking FANTASY here right? B/C again, you say the numbers don't tell the story but in fantasy the numbers ARE the story. Again, in four years he's been a top 10 fantasy back ONCE...and that was a year he ran for 2,000 yards

4) You do realize that 387 carries, 5.3 YPC and 2,000+ yards is much much MUCH less representative of something he can do again than his other seasons, don't you? There have been four other 2,000 yard seasons in NFL history. FOUR. Barry Sanders did it...and that year his YPC was 6.1, a full yard more than his career mark. O.J. Simpson did it, and surprise surprise, his YPC of 6.0 was a full 1.3 yards higher than his career mark. Terrell Davis' 2,000 yard season of 5.1 YPC was the closest to his career mark, and yet was STILL a half a yard higher than his career mark. Oh yeah, and Eric Dickerson, the guy who has the RUSHING RECORD averaged 5.6 yards per rush that season...AND NEVER AVERAGED MORE THAN 4.6 YPC again in his remaining 10 years in the league.

5) Again, getting back to FANTASY stats...doesn't it strike you as odd that despite a 2,000 yard rushing season, Jamal WASN'T the top fantasy back that year? In fact, he wasn't even a top THREE back. Every other RB with 2,000 yards rushing finished as the #1 fantasy RB in that season. Why didn't Jamal? Because he's one dimensional. He doesn't catch the ball and he's not a prolific scorer. Those are the facts.

6) You say he's in the best situation of his career? Production equates to OPPORTUNITY. 387 carries behind a dominant offensive line and a defense that keeps you in every game = about as good an opportunity as any runner can ever hope to have. If you meant to say that defenses may actually have to defend the pass a bit this year and, as a result, Jamal could see an increase in his YPC...I completely agree, which is why a 4.5 YPC wouldn't surprise me one bit. But if you really think Jamal is in line to get more touches this year (or even close to the touches he had in 2003, I beg you to look at the entirety of NFL history and realize it's not likely.

Jamal = VERY VERY good NFL running back. He also is a solid fantasy back, and someone who has CONSISTENTLY put up OK RB2 numbers. Those points are indisputable. You're entitled to think he could improve across the board, stranger things have happened...but to dismiss facts in the interest of whimsy is never a good idea.

 

[Bri]

That, my friends, is the very DEFINITION of a fantasy RB2. You don't win championships drafting a guy like that in the first round.

As to a few other points made...

1) RE: Ogden...last time I checked Ogden was on the team for all four of Jam's non-injured seasons

Again, at no point did I say Jamal was a bad fantasy back. I said he would be a solid RB2 in the SECOND ROUND. But if you take him in the first, you are VERY LIKELY overvaluing him based on a completely unattainable season that by any analysis was the exception not the rule.

Simple first-Ogden, I just mentioned wasn't getting any credit here. i'd swear in a reply to Banger but nonetheless, the line deserves some "due" if we're gonna praise Jamal's performance with so many in the box. I don't think we disagree on that so as far as that I'm Quite candidly I think you are breaking a tier here too strongly. Jamal could/should/has been going late first and early 2nd. Getting another similar quality RB on the wraparound it's really more petty than meaningful. I got Dillon and Jamal in a mock. 60-70 off of NFL lead last year+missed a game or two Dillon. Which was 1st? Which was 2nd? Doesn't really matter IMO. I think I can safely guess you, me, and most here are comfy with any 2 RBs taken late first and early second.

I don't use VBD or any of the FBG gadgets but at this point they don't even really matter. One could say they do but not in my opinion. At this point we're all plenty similar.

As to your other post:

I don't care about the number of rushes much anymore. I used to but never found them to truly mean anything. Maybe now that Eddie George is almost retired they might but....do you? I kinda feel like general thoughts with carries are enough like Curtis is gonna get his, Jamal will get his, Dillon will get his and then just carry on.

 

[datonn]

<<1>>The team seems hellbent on throwing the ball more even though running with Lewis + the Ravens defense seems an ideal way to win a LOT of games <<2>>With an upgraded WR corps, Boller entering his 2nd year as a starter, and a new set of offensive coaches, the Ravens seem committed to becoming a better passing team; so I just don't see a scenario where Lewis gets enough touches to come close to his 4th place fantasy finish in 2003. He's a solid fantasy RB2 and should be drafted accordingly. If someone wants to draft Lewis in the early- to mid-first round expecting a repeat of his 2003 season (which appears quite the anomaly), let them, but don't hesitate to grab him (particularly in yardage heavy leagues) as a 2nd rounder.

Jason, I think where you are losing people on your analysis relates to quotes 1 and 2 above....along with a little for "spice" and readability in calling him a "very pedestrian but solid workhorse back".You are absolutely correct in saying that other than in 2003, Jamal Lewis' numbers have been very consistent! However, you forget to mention one other very critical point as well: The Ravens have consistently had CRAP at QB and WR for most/all of Lewis' career! That makes his 4.4, 4.3 and 4.3 YPC incredibly impressive...at least to me. Now that Boller will be in his second year and the offense has added WRs Mason and Clayton to the mix, I expect three things to happen in Baltimore this season:1. More success with the passing game, meaning a MODEST DECREASE in Lewis' first-half touches, but....2. ...MORE RED ZONE OPPORTUNITIES for the offense as a result of the improved passing attack, aka the same or even more chances for Lewis to touch the ball near the end zone.3. The Ravens having more leads (or at least more substantial leads) in the second half than Lewis has seen in the past....resulting in the Ravens pounding Lewis at defenses in the second half, aka MORE second half touches.When the Ravens added Mason and Clayton to the offense this spring, I went out of my way to add Jamal Lewis to my fantasy teams this off-season, as I think he is in for a nice year! Not "top 5 RB" finish IMHO, but a heck of a lot better than your "pedestrian" RB2 analysis.One last thought. It's hard to label a guy "RB2" as it really depends upon the size of league. Are we talking 8-team leagues or 16-20 team leagues? I assume you were shooting down the middle at 12, which has me thinking your prediction of around RB 15-18 (my guess) is about 5-8 spots too low......

 

[Wingnut]

I have him projected at RB13 with 1333 rush yds, 176 rec yds, and 9 total TDs.I agree with Woodrow on this one, anyone taking Lewis in round 1 is gonna be disappointed. But someone will, and it wont be me.

 

[tarheel1unc]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

If Jamal Lewis is a rb2 why is he ranked #6 rb by Mr Wood in FBG magazine's overall rankings.

 

[Peter]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

If Jamal Lewis is a rb2 why is he ranked #6 rb by Mr Wood in FBG magazine's overall rankings.

Whoops!

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Nobody was more disappointed to see Butchie leave Cleveland than Jamal Lewis.

 

[BlackHole]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

If Jamal Lewis is a rb2 why is he ranked #6 rb by Mr Wood in FBG magazine's overall rankings.

LMAO

 

[Wingnut]

If Jamal Lewis is a rb2 why is he ranked #6 rb by Mr Wood in FBG magazine's overall rankings.

He has probably just adjusted his projections for Jamal since the magazine went to the printers (late May I think)....right now Wood has him ranked as the #11 RB in his latest rankings, which were posted July 5th.Current FBGs RB rankings

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

Just so I'm clear, do you disagree with my conclusion or the fact that Lewis, absent his 2,000 yard season, has been remarkably consistent and not worthy of RB1 consideration?

Just so you're clear, I disagree with both. You can cough up all the stats you want -- to bolster your opinion. What is lost in that is the situation Lewis was in. The Ravens are a running team, and everybody knows it. You don't think that's tougher on the runner? Well, your stats don't show that.And I find it humorous that you choose to, more or less, toss aside one of the best seasons an RB EVER had, in favor of PREVIOUS "pedestrian" seasons. It wasn't a game we can find excuses for, it was a season. What was it, an aberration? A 16-game mirage? Chester Taylor's new contract? Whoopee.

But, let's go back to situations again. Lewis now finds himself in probably the best surroundings of his career...with a chip on his shoulder. We are forecasting here, right? Why is year one that important to you? His 2,000 yard season is clearly a better indication, with more recency to boot, of what he could do THIS YEAR. That's what I care most about.

Quite honestly, how you see it otherwise, is beyond me.

Couple things...1) I IMPLORE you to read the ENTIRE post of people you're arguing with...at what point did I ever say "toss aside his 2,000 yard season" I go through the process of pointing out that he's had three mirror image seasons, none of which were that impressive AND another season which ranks among the all-time greats (for rushing YARDAGE)

2) More recency? His 2004 season is the most recent...and that was 19 carries per game and 4.3 YPC

3) We're talking FANTASY here right? B/C again, you say the numbers don't tell the story but in fantasy the numbers ARE the story. Again, in four years he's been a top 10 fantasy back ONCE...and that was a year he ran for 2,000 yards

4) You do realize that 387 carries, 5.3 YPC and 2,000+ yards is much much MUCH less representative of something he can do again than his other seasons, don't you? There have been four other 2,000 yard seasons in NFL history. FOUR. Barry Sanders did it...and that year his YPC was 6.1, a full yard more than his career mark. O.J. Simpson did it, and surprise surprise, his YPC of 6.0 was a full 1.3 yards higher than his career mark. Terrell Davis' 2,000 yard season of 5.1 YPC was the closest to his career mark, and yet was STILL a half a yard higher than his career mark. Oh yeah, and Eric Dickerson, the guy who has the RUSHING RECORD averaged 5.6 yards per rush that season...AND NEVER AVERAGED MORE THAN 4.6 YPC again in his remaining 10 years in the league.

5) Again, getting back to FANTASY stats...doesn't it strike you as odd that despite a 2,000 yard rushing season, Jamal WASN'T the top fantasy back that year? In fact, he wasn't even a top THREE back. Every other RB with 2,000 yards rushing finished as the #1 fantasy RB in that season. Why didn't Jamal? Because he's one dimensional. He doesn't catch the ball and he's not a prolific scorer. Those are the facts.

6) You say he's in the best situation of his career? Production equates to OPPORTUNITY. 387 carries behind a dominant offensive line and a defense that keeps you in every game = about as good an opportunity as any runner can ever hope to have. If you meant to say that defenses may actually have to defend the pass a bit this year and, as a result, Jamal could see an increase in his YPC...I completely agree, which is why a 4.5 YPC wouldn't surprise me one bit. But if you really think Jamal is in line to get more touches this year (or even close to the touches he had in 2003, I beg you to look at the entirety of NFL history and realize it's not likely.

Jamal = VERY VERY good NFL running back. He also is a solid fantasy back, and someone who has CONSISTENTLY put up OK RB2 numbers. Those points are indisputable. You're entitled to think he could improve across the board, stranger things have happened...but to dismiss facts in the interest of whimsy is never a good idea.

You write for FBG's, right? Well then, don't try to bring ppr into this equation. That's weak. On top of that, we are prognosticating THIS season, if I'm not mistaken. If you are wont to rely on his early seasons, so be it. Be my guest. Instead, I will lean on his current situation, arguably his best.

In any case, this is what I was responding to...

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year

Why was it a "fluke"? What made it a fluke? Was it a string of coincidences? Please, do tell.Look, we can argue until we're blue in the face, and probably will, but to insinuate that Jamal Lewis as "a very pedestrian runningback" who had a "fluke" 2,000 yard season is blasphemy. And for the record, I can't stand the Ravens, nor Jamal Lewis.

Bottom line, I think you're leaning on selective statistics, and possibly bias; altogether, a dangerous proposition. He is a top ten RB this year -- not a "decent RB2".

 

[BigRed]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Good points JW, minus the passing part - as stated earlier, that will help, not hurt. And actually 1700/9 (grand totals roughly in other 2 years worth looking at and projecting last year) isn't all that shabby for a latter 1st rounder (ie with potential for more). The injury thing is my only mild concern.

 

[BigRed]

You have got to be kidding me. He only has the record for most yards in a single game, putting up nearly 300 YARDS...after talking sh&t to the Browns and telling them he was going to do it!! They had 9...yes 9 guys in the box the entire game. He also had a 60 yards run called back on a holding penalty that was on the other side of the field and had nothing to do with his run. He would have cleared 350 yards in a single game! When healthy, Lewis is the BEST pure RB in football...hands down. I don't know what the hell you are smoking but I wish you were in my draft.

I don't know what the hell YOU are smoking, but FYI they don't play the Browns every week - which is the only way your point would be relevant. Lewis is a solid back and a worthy late 1st/2d pick (or in my case, a low 20s purchase, give or take, in auction draft).

 

[H.K.]

I think the separation of reality and fantasy are the order of the day here. Lewis is an impressive physical specimen who has done some amazing things as an NFL runner, however, one season out of four has provided such a statistical outlier that it is shrouding where his true value lies. Two key elements for this discussion: 1) Lewis' production is very one dimensional due to his absence in the passing game.The past three seasons his receptions have seen a serious downward trend...47-26-10 . Granted, he missed a few games last year, but Chester Taylor is getting the RB recepts. in Baltimore now and there is nothiong suggesting a change in that area.The net result is that Lewis will have to get virtually all his FF points on the ground, and his value will vary a decent amount based on scoring system.2) Touchdown ProductionIn 2004 Lewis was the 27th among all RB's in red zone carries per game with average of only 2.3 attempts a contest. Those numbers need to improve significantly for him to be Top 10 FF RB material.Expect Lewis to total 1500-1700 yards by getting about 20 carries a week, averaging 4.5 a carry with a catch or two a week. Most likely he'll score 7-8 TD's with potential for double digits on the season if things fall his way. Anticipating anything more than that really seems to be a stretch based on what his normal output has been.

 

[Jason Wood]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

If Jamal Lewis is a rb2 why is he ranked #6 rb by Mr Wood in FBG magazine's overall rankings.

As someone else already astutely noted, that ranking was done almost eight weeks ago, and as I have gone through and refined my 2005 projections, I've ratcheted expectations down. Much like many of you, I mistakenly looked at Jamal as being a more productive fantasy back than he's actually been, then an objective look at the facts took place and I saw clear as day that I had been too aggressive in my assumptions for Jam. Our rankings are real-time, so check back any day and his ranking may be adjusted accordingly. We can agree to disagree, that's fine. If we all agreed, there would be no point in having fantasy drafts, we would all just draw numbers out of a hat and then distribute the players based on our universally agreed upon rankings. Monkeface Prickleback almost seems angry that I'm somehow insulting HIS guy...believe me, I'm paid to evaluate and pass judgement on 100s of NFL players each year, so save for an occasional bout of Eagles homerism, I bear no personal biases.

If Jam finishes as RB10-RB12 and you take him 9th overall, will that be devastating? NO, of course not. But at the same time, that means someone else in your league is getting someone that SHOULD have been taken higher and ultimately may end up with a more productive 1st and 2nd round RB combination.

Also, to be fair...where I could be wrong in my assumptions, ranked my order of liklihood.

1) His yards per carry...In four seasons, he's averaged 4.4, 4.3, 5.3, and 4.3. My projections call for him to average 4.4 yards per carry. The argument for improvement would be that Fassel + Boller + Mason + Clayton give the Ravens a semblance of a passing attack, thus opening up running lanes for Jamal that he's never had before. A very possible scenario. So let's say his YPC goes from 4.4 to 4.7 (a very strong step forward), based on the same number of carries (300)...his yardage total would go from 1,320 to 1,440, giving him 12 extra fantasy points. That would be enough to lift him into a tie for 12th place on my current RB projections. Again, solid RB2, but not an RB1 much less a top tier RB1.

2) His number of carries...I project Jamal for 300 carries. Again, in three of his four seasons he's averaged just over 19 carries a game, so were he to maintain that over a full season, you're looking at 304 carries. As I showed earlier in this thread, it's rare for an NFL back to exceed 320 carries. Considering, as everyone has stated in support of Jamal, that the Ravens have had a sorry passing game up to this point in Jam's career, any improvement therein is most definitely not going to drive a major uptick in his total carries. Projecting ANY RB for more than 300-320 carries is a risky proposition, much less someone who hasn't been able to train off a bum ankle.

3) His number of touchdowns...This is the metric most likely to be wrong, one way or the other. Projecting touchdowns, by virtue of their small sample size (even the best players only score a handful of TDs per year), any TD projection on ANY player is going to be less statistically consistent than the other variables that go into player performance. That said, all we can do is look at past performance and evaluate what, if anything has changed that would allow them to improve or decline. Jamal Lewis hasn't been without opportunities at the goal line. From 2002-2004, Lewis ranks 13th in the league in goal line carries.

Here are the top 20 goal line rushers, ranked by TD conversion percentage...

Priest Holmes (2002--2004) - 68 rushes \ 41 \ 60.3% Goal Line TD%

Shaun Alexander (2002--2004) - 63 rushes \ 33 \ 52.4% Goal Line TD%
Jerome Bettis (2002--2004) - 44 rushes \ 22 \ 50.0% Goal Line TD%
Marshall Faulk (2002--2004) - 35 rushes \ 17 \ 48.6% Goal Line TD%
LaDainian Tomlinson (2002--2004) - 63 rushes \ 30 \ 47.6% Goal Line TD%
Tiki Barber (2002--2004) - 42 rushes \ 20 \ 47.6% Goal Line TD%
Travis Henry (2002--2004) - 37 rushes \ 17 \ 45.9% Goal Line TD%
Stephen Davis (2002--2004) - 31 rushes \ 14 \ 45.2% Goal Line TD%
Eddie George (2002--2004) - 41 rushes \ 18 \ 43.9% Goal Line TD%
Domanick Davis (2002--2004) - 32 rushes \ 14 \ 43.8% Goal Line TD%
Moe Williams (2002--2004) - 39 rushes \ 17 \ 43.6% Goal Line TD%
Zack Crockett (2002--2004) - 37 rushes \ 16 \ 43.2% Goal Line TD%
Jamal Lewis (2002--2004) - 37 rushes \ 16 \ 43.2% Goal Line TD%
Clinton Portis (2002--2004) - 46 rushes \ 19 \ 41.3% Goal Line TD%
Deuce McAllister (2002--2004) - 45 rushes \ 18 \ 40.0% Goal Line TD%
Corey Dillon (2002--2004) - 48 rushes \ 16 \ 33.3% Goal Line TD%
Ricky Williams (2002--2004) - 41 rushes \ 13 \ 31.7% Goal Line TD%
Edgerrin James (2002--2004) - 56 rushes \ 16 \ 28.6% Goal Line TD%
Mike Alstott (2002--2004) - 32 rushes \ 8 \ 25.0% Goal Line TD%
Fred Taylor (2002--2004) - 31 rushes \ 6 \ 19.4% Goal Line TD%As you can see, Jamal has a) gotten plenty of goal line rushes and b) has been in the middle of the pack in conversion percentage. So if you want to argue that he's going to see more goal line opportunities because the offense is going to be more effective in general, I could see that happening but considering, again, he's already among the top 15 over that span (despite missing some games), I'm not sure the numbers support your contention.

4) His receiving totals -- Jamal has a new offensive coordinator so we don't know if he's going to be used more as a receiver, I would agree with anyone that he can't be used much less , having caught a whopping 10 balls in 12 games a year ago. So I'm comfortable with my projection of 25 receptions for 225 yards. If a tailback doesn't catch a ton of outlet and dumpoff passes from an inexperieced QB without any weapons at WR, why on Earth would he catch MORE now that Boller is more experienced and has Clayton and Mason to throw to? Furthermore, for those who dismiss Chester Taylor, they didn't re-sign him for $3 million to keep him off the field. And since Jamal is world's better as a runner, obviously they plan on using Taylor as a 3rd down back particularly in receiving sets.

Net-net...Jamal, unlike most other backs who get consideration in the first round, NEEDS a massive amount of carries to even figure into the mix at a top 5-10 fantasy player. That's not a knock on him, that's just the circumstance he finds himself in as the team best utilizes their personnel. Could Jamal finish among the top 10? Certainly. I rank him 14th currently and he would need 16 points to break into the top 10 at his position. 16 points is another 2 touchdowns and 40 yards rushing, so anything is possible.

 

[ravnzfan]

First, let me address the topic posters original question about Jamal Lewis starting the season on the PUP list:

Lewis and Heap will start there, which allows the Ravens an exrtra player when mandatory cuts start to take place during training camp. This is merely a technicality that allows the Ravens to see a couple guys a bit longer than they would have otherwise.

I fully expect both players OFF the PUP list by the start of the season, per Billick in a radio interview a couple weeks ago regarding the 'health' of the team.

I am MORE concerned about the lack of practice time for Jamal Lewis, rather than the ankle. Chestor Taylor has been taking 1st team snaps all off season, and has gotten QUITE a look as a result. Lewis will be a couple days late reporting to camp (starts 7/31), and will need time to get into "football shape".

Understand I am not in panic mode about this, but I FIRMLY believe that all this stacks up to a season for Jamal alot closer to his career avg as opposed to the special season of '03.

My projections for Lewis are in the 1600 combined/10TD range...I fully expect Taylor to be an integral part of the passing game (Tiki-like, no...but Fassel DOES love tossing the rock to a RB!)...I expect Lewis to have ~25, with Taylor in the 45 grab range or so

If I were drafting in a 12 teamer this year, taking Lewis on the turn would not seem a reach to me---any sooner?

 

[ravnzfan]

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year...

**hijack alert**look at Bollers attempts last year(464) and it's easy to dismiss the Ravens "passing more" this season

look at the "splits", however, and a much more revealing story:

games 2-6, with Travis Taylor and Todd Heap OUT, the Ravens threw the ball 90 times...TOTAL! an avg of 18/gm

the reciever corps at this time had 1 player held over from the year before--back up TE Terry Jones, Jr! Boller, starting games 10-15 of his career, had no one other than Jones from the season before--as a result, very few pass attempts during this part of the season

game 7--Taylor returns, plus a bit of chemistry developes between Boller and 6th round rookie CMoore

games 7-16 found the Ravens passing an avg of 33 1/2 times per game

we ask ourselves the question:

do I look at the yearly avg, as apparently Joe and David have, and project Boller for 465 attempts?

or do I look at what the Ravens did in the passing game in the second half of the season, plus factor in FA Mason and 1st round rookie Clayton?

under/over on Boller pass attempts this year???

525 1/2

book it!

and as a result, I believe you can pencil in Jamal for a few more TD carries, as the passing game sets up a few more opportunities....

my projection for Lewis (1600/10) is some what temered, and I would not be shocked to see 13 or 14 total scores by him---just not counting on it

 

[cscmtp]

so can we at least all agree that having Lewis as your #3 RB in a dynasty league rocks? I have McGahee and Portis too.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Rushing (Per Game) Averages, 2000-2004

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs
2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs
2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

I'm going to have to make some common sense adjustments here:2000: Rookie, did NOT start first three games. 19 carries over the first 3 games.

In actuality -- 22.3 carries/ 97.3 rushing yards

2001: ACL tear, his 2nd.

2002: 1st year back from ACL tear. It's consensus among FFers that a RB can be productive, but not true to form 1st year back.

So your posted per game stats for him indicate a small drop from his very nice rookie year.

2003: 2nd year back from ACL tear. Consensus among FFers that RB is truly healthy and ready to perform up to his level. Coincidently (or not) this was his 2,000 yard season.

2004: Injured again, along with the rare circumstance of a criminal trial and 2 game suspension halfway through the season.

So we have for his healthy years:

2000: 22.3 carries/97.3 rushing yards (356/1556)

2003: 24.2 carries/129.1 rushing yards (387/2065)

Injured years:

2002: 19.3 carries/82.9 rushing yards (308/1324)

2004: 19.6 carries/83.8 rushing yards (313/1340)

Obviously a tale of two RBs. So like any other RB in the NFL, he isn't as productive when he is hurt. Imagine that. His common sense 2000 numbers are supressed by only giving his season total a cursory examination. Don't feel bad, I made the same mistake too.

So he obviously can be top 5 on that team if he stays healthy the entire year and things work out in the luck dept (TDs). The list of RBs you can say that about with a reasonable degree of certainty is probably no more than 10. I'm not really a huge fan of his, but if someone wants to take him at the bottom of the 1st, I have no issue with that. He's got an ADP of 9 right now, can't really argue against that.

 

[nortobc]

2000 -- RB16 despite being 8th in rushes

2002 -- RB12 despite being 8th in rushes
2003 -- RB4 despite having 387 carries!
2004 -- RB25 in 12 games (RB19 on a per game basis)That, my friends, is the very DEFINITION of a fantasy RB2. You don't win championships drafting a guy like that in the first round.

It depends on the kind of league you play in. My league awards 1 pt for each carry starting with 5 and you get a 5 point bonus for every 50 yards rushing. So 120 yards on 30 carries = 46 points. J Lewis is a definite 1st round pick in my league.

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.All that is really said there is this: "After reading Mr. Wood's post "carefully" (what is this, surgery?) I wholeheartedly agree . In fact, I am going to regurgitate it for all of you."

Um, what makes that such a good posting? Was it the wet kiss? Or are you also calling his 2,000 yard season a fluke?

First off, trying to sneak PPR into the equation is weak, and a fall-back. That is not what Wood was addressing; and not even FBG standard scoring (projections, etc), so drop it.

Secondly, the fact that Wood leans so heavily on a few earlier years, where Baltimore was oh-so predictable, and Lewis had obvious excuses, baffles me. By all means, he is welcome to do so, but why discount his 2,000 yard season in favor of less desireable conditions? Was Mason there? Clayton? How was their QB? The way I see it, this years sets up to be the most favorable to Jamal. And that is what we're after, correct?

Look, let's not get into a debate over his career here, by coughing up yet even more numbers to support an opinion. All we care about is what is going to happen, right? As such, Wood, and his ilk, see Lewis as a "serviceable #2" RB. Fine...good, even. However, I completely disagree, and find his current situation likely his best yet. That puts him firmly in the latter part of the first round for me. Not pedestrian, by any means.

We will see shortly.

 

[fatness]

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year. A few games of trying to pass more, thinking that better receivers this year will help. But receivers don't pass the ball, Boller does, and after a few more games of watching him do it rather poorly again I think Billick will go back to the "we're running, try to stop us" gameplan. At least until they get behind late, or by a lot, in games.