Jamal Lewis worries ? (1 Viewer)

[ravnzfan]

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year. A few games of trying to pass more, thinking that better receivers this year will help. But receivers don't pass the ball, Boller does, and after a few more games of watching him do it rather poorly again I think Billick will go back to the "we're running, try to stop us" gameplan. At least until they get behind late, or by a lot, in games.

sound like the making of a "side bet"

care to put a couple sheckles on your "expectations"?

Pittsburg is a "run first" football team...618(run) to 358(pass)

the Baltimore splits??? 491(run)-465(pass)

the Ravens will have more pass plays than running plays this year

 

[Chaka]

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

All that is really said there is this: "After reading Mr. Wood's post "carefully" (what is this, surgery?) I wholeheartedly agree . In fact, I am going to regurgitate it for all of you."

Um, what makes that such a good posting? Was it the wet kiss? Or are you also calling his 2,000 yard season a fluke?

First off, trying to sneak PPR into the equation is weak, and a fall-back. That is not what Wood was addressing; and not even FBG standard scoring (projections, etc), so drop it.

Secondly, the fact that Wood leans so heavily on a few earlier years, where Baltimore was oh-so predictable, and Lewis had obvious excuses, baffles me. By all means, he is welcome to do so, but why discount his 2,000 yard season in favor of less desireable conditions? Was Mason there? Clayton? How was their QB? The way I see it, this years sets up to be the most favorable to Jamal. And that is what we're after, correct?

Look, let's not get into a debate over his career here, by coughing up yet even more numbers to support an opinion. All we care about is what is going to happen, right? As such, Wood, and his ilk, see Lewis as a "serviceable #2" RB. Fine...good, even. However, I completely disagree, and find his current situation likely his best yet. That puts him firmly in the latter part of the first round for me. Not pedestrian, by any means.

We will see shortly.

Aren't you also putting a lot of stock into Jamal's 2000 yard season? It was awesome no doubt but 505 yards v Cleveland brought his per game rushing yardage from 111ypg to 129ypg and his yards per carry from 4.7 to 5.3 for the season. I am fairly confident this will not happen again.I agree that calling out PPR stats is probably bush-league but let's be honest here, Jamal is doing his fantasy (and NFL) damage almost exclusively on the ground. Don't expect that to change...ever. And that fact limits his overall fantasy value.

I also agree that Jamal is in, perhaps, the best situation of his career, Mason is an upgrade no doubt but Mark Clayton has proven exactly nothing in the NFL so let's not anoint him upgrade status until he proves that he is at least better than Travis Taylor on the field.

It is really difficult to predict the impact of the passing game on Jamal's status. He will be relied upon less to carry the team, which is bad however the team will sustain more drives providing more opportunities for the offense, which sounds good. It will probably come out in the wash however...

...if you consider the fact the the Ravens offensive coordinator (Jim Fassel), in seven seasons as the head coach of the Giants, had a 55:45 pass:run ratio (56:44 since 2000 when Tiki Barber became the feature back) then you must temper your expectations for Jamal's workload. Tiki only had 300+ carries under Fassel once (303 in 2002).

It would be wise to expect a very balanced attack from Baltimore at best and unlikely that the running game will dominate the offensive philosophy. I personally believe that Fassel, who was specifically brought in last year to turn Boller into a legitimate NFL QB, will want to showcase his QB guru skills in the hopes of landing another head coaching gig in 2006, ditto for new QB coach Rick "The Greek" Neuheisel, and Brian Billick (a former QB guru himself) probably will not be too upset if Boller justifies his first round draft status. Those are a lot of big egos that want to see Boller succeed so I am tempering my expectations for Jamal's workload this year.

In the final analysis while I am not so high on Jamal I am not sure he does not warrant first round consideration either. I can come up with maybe (MAYBE) 13 RBs that I would take ahead of Jamal but looking at this list (below) I could honestly see Jamal going as high as #5 or as low as #14 and like most things I am sure the truth will end up somewhere in the middle.

LT, Alexander, Deuce, Edge, Priest, Ahman, Dom, Dillon, KJones, Portis, Rudi, McGahee, JJones.

 

[Family Matters]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.All that is really said there is this: "After reading Mr. Wood's post "carefully" (what is this, surgery?) I wholeheartedly agree . In fact, I am going to regurgitate it for all of you."

Um, what makes that such a good posting? Was it the wet kiss? Or are you also calling his 2,000 yard season a fluke?

First off, trying to sneak PPR into the equation is weak, and a fall-back. That is not what Wood was addressing; and not even FBG standard scoring (projections, etc), so drop it.

Secondly, the fact that Wood leans so heavily on a few earlier years, where Baltimore was oh-so predictable, and Lewis had obvious excuses, baffles me. By all means, he is welcome to do so, but why discount his 2,000 yard season in favor of less desireable conditions? Was Mason there? Clayton? How was their QB? The way I see it, this years sets up to be the most favorable to Jamal. And that is what we're after, correct?

Look, let's not get into a debate over his career here, by coughing up yet even more numbers to support an opinion. All we care about is what is going to happen, right? As such, Wood, and his ilk, see Lewis as a "serviceable #2" RB. Fine...good, even. However, I completely disagree, and find his current situation likely his best yet. That puts him firmly in the latter part of the first round for me. Not pedestrian, by any means.

We will see shortly.

Now that's interesting. Your advice to others is to ignore the past performance of a player and instead base your projection on what, gut? Making up excuses for one's past performance leaves your post lacking in any credible value. So I guess we should ignore other players past performance as well or is it just selective and limited to Lewis? Is this just your way of supporting your opinion? In fact I'm surprised you even had this thought to post. Usually you limit your comments to "smileyesse" like this: . For a while I didn't know you had an opinion. At least now you're posting your thoughts and that's a big step for you. So congrats.So if the 2000 yard season wasn't a fluke then why haven't there been more performances that resemble it? You are correct in saying this year sets up better for him but to suggest that he will be a valid 1st round pick when he has only accomplished it 1 time in is career (based on FBG's scoring) is a reach at best. And if you happen to be in a PPR league (many are) then his value is even lower. But by all means, feel free to spend your first rounder on him and then play catch up the rest of the way. No doubt you'll enjoy this all season long.

OMG-you crack me up when you make fun at someone using past performance in their evaluations.

 

[ravnzfan]

  I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

All that is really said there is this:  "After reading Mr. Wood's post "carefully"    (what is this, surgery?) I wholeheartedly agree .  In fact, I am going to regurgitate it for all of you." 

Um, what makes that such a good posting?  Was it the wet kiss?  Or are you also calling his 2,000 yard season a fluke?

First off, trying to sneak PPR into the equation is weak, and a fall-back.  That is not what Wood was addressing; and not even FBG standard scoring (projections, etc), so drop it. 

Secondly, the fact that Wood leans so heavily on a few earlier years, where Baltimore was oh-so predictable, and Lewis had obvious excuses, baffles me.  By all means, he is welcome to do so, but why discount his 2,000 yard season in favor of less desireable conditions?  Was Mason there?  Clayton?  How was their QB?  The way I see it, this years sets up to be the most favorable to Jamal.  And that is what we're after, correct?

Look, let's not get into a debate over his career here, by coughing up yet even more numbers to support an opinion.  All we care about is what is going to happen, right?  As such, Wood, and his ilk, see Lewis as a "serviceable #2" RB.  Fine...good, even.  However, I completely disagree, and find his current situation likely his best yet.  That puts him firmly in the latter part of the first round for me.  Not pedestrian, by any means.

We will see shortly. 

Aren't you also putting a lot of stock into Jamal's 2000 yard season? It was awesome no doubt but 505 yards v Cleveland brought his per game rushing yardage from 111ypg to 129ypg and his yards per carry from 4.7 to 5.3 for the season. I am fairly confident this will not happen again.I agree that calling out PPR stats is probably bush-league but let's be honest here, Jamal is doing his fantasy (and NFL) damage almost exclusively on the ground. Don't expect that to change...ever. And that fact limits his overall fantasy value.

I also agree that Jamal is in, perhaps, the best situation of his career, Mason is an upgrade no doubt but Mark Clayton has proven exactly nothing in the NFL so let's not anoint him upgrade status until he proves that he is at least better than Travis Taylor on the field.

It is really difficult to predict the impact of the passing game on Jamal's status. He will be relied upon less to carry the team, which is bad however the team will sustain more drives providing more opportunities for the offense, which sounds good. It will probably come out in the wash however...

...if you consider the fact the the Ravens offensive coordinator (Jim Fassel), in seven seasons as the head coach of the Giants, had a 55:45 pass:run ratio (56:44 since 2000 when Tiki Barber became the feature back) then you must temper your expectations for Jamal's workload. Tiki only had 300+ carries under Fassel once (303 in 2002).

It would be wise to expect a very balanced attack from Baltimore at best and unlikely that the running game will dominate the offensive philosophy. I personally believe that Fassel, who was specifically brought in last year to turn Boller into a legitimate NFL QB, will want to showcase his QB guru skills in the hopes of landing another head coaching gig in 2006, ditto for new QB coach Rick "The Greek" Neuheisel, and Brian Billick (a former QB guru himself) probably will not be too upset if Boller justifies his first round draft status. Those are a lot of big egos that want to see Boller succeed so I am tempering my expectations for Jamal's workload this year.

In the final analysis while I am not so high on Jamal I am not sure he does not warrant first round consideration either. I can come up with maybe (MAYBE) 13 RBs that I would take ahead of Jamal but looking at this list (below) I could honestly see Jamal going as high as #5 or as low as #14 and like most things I am sure the truth will end up somewhere in the middle.

LT, Alexander, Deuce, Edge, Priest, Ahman, Dom, Dillon, KJones, Portis, Rudi, McGahee, JJones.

THAT was

 

[Family Matters]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

For a "new" poster it's amazing that you would have formed any opinion like this. Unless of course you've been around around awhile under another name, like "Sonny". Reminds me of an old saying that applies to posting:

"Better to remain to silent have one wonder as to your ignorance then to post and remove all doubt".

 

[Rhino802]

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year. A few games of trying to pass more, thinking that better receivers this year will help. But receivers don't pass the ball, Boller does, and after a few more games of watching him do it rather poorly again I think Billick will go back to the "we're running, try to stop us" gameplan. At least until they get behind late, or by a lot, in games.

sound like the making of a "side bet"

care to put a couple sheckles on your "expectations"?

Pittsburg is a "run first" football team...618(run) to 358(pass)

the Baltimore splits??? 491(run)-465(pass)

the Ravens will have more pass plays than running plays this year

I'll take that bet, too.

Ravnzfan is dead on the money. They will have more passing plays than running plays. Relative to the topic at large, Jam will have more receiving opportunities but rushes/game will avg no more than 20 - tops.

 

[fatness]

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year. A few games of trying to pass more, thinking that better receivers this year will help. But receivers don't pass the ball, Boller does, and after a few more games of watching him do it rather poorly again I think Billick will go back to the "we're running, try to stop us" gameplan. At least until they get behind late, or by a lot, in games.

sound like the making of a "side bet"

care to put a couple sheckles on your "expectations"?

Pittsburg is a "run first" football team...618(run) to 358(pass)

the Baltimore splits??? 491(run)-465(pass)

the Ravens will have more pass plays than running plays this year

Baltimore can easily be a run-first team yet end up with more passes than runs. Scenario: they resort to the run as their preferred weapon after seeing a lack of success at improving the passing game. In subsequent games they run first, but in games they get behind by a lot, or late, they resort to passing as a more time-efficient way of catching up before time expires. If you can figure out a way to quantify whether Baltimore does or does not turn into a run-first team during the year, sure, I'm up for a bet. I don't know how to quantify that without a lot of "if's", though.

If it's just a bet you're after, I bet Ramsey has a better year than Boller. Similar situations ----- a good defense, a lousy offense last year, each needing to prove themselves this year.

 

[Marc Levin]

It depends on the kind of league you play in.

This is the answer to each and every player discussion - for the vast bulk of discussions on these boards, we are talking about the standard performance legues of 1/10, 6/TD, and it is OK to throw pt/ rec. into the equation since that is a fairly common type of league.If someone wants to argue a player is a sure-fire first round selection based on their league's abberant rules - such as pts/carry for RBs - it is important - and only fair to fellow debaters - to make that point right up front.On JLew, while I do not necessarily agree with Wood's contention that he is a pedestrian RB or mkerely a fantasy RB2, I have always been extremely prejudiced against backs that are not dual threats.The very fact that JLew is likely, barring injury, to get 350+ carries and to pound the crud out of the ball for 60 minutes a game, keeps him near the top, though not at the top, of my RB rankings.The fact that he gets almost nothing for you in the receiving game - though he had 40+ receptions one year and has great ability to do so - keeps my expectations for him low. I have a buyer beware as a top-RB1, but I wouldn't hesitate to take him near the bottom of the first in almost all 12-team drafts. Of course, I qualify that by also stating that I want a nice, consistent RB2 right behind him - think CuMar or Tiki - if he's my RB1 selection in the first. I would never draft a guy like JLew with the 100% confidence that my RB spot is set up.That is in direct contrast to guys like Tomlinson, Priest, Edge, and even Dom Davis - who will get me at least 10+ points a week simply by combining their receiving and rushing yardage, regardless of any outstanding games or TDs scored.

 

[Loomba]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Disagree completely. He's a moose, and any semblence of a passing game is only going to help take the focus off him. All they could do was run before, and everybody in the league knew it.

His lack of speed is not that important for him. You know that. He wears D's down, and gets his later in the game. You watch, the guy will be on a mission this year.

Oh, and Chester Taylor and his new contract? You gotta be kidding me.

Great pick in the second half of the first round.

Last time I saw Jamal at full speed he was pulling away from a secondary. He can move very fast for a guy his size.He is the most physically dominant RB in the NFL.

I like him in 2005. You gotta believe he wants to come back and prove his naysayers wrong. Plus, I wouldnt' be surprised if he is motivated after letting his team down last season.

If he's there at the end of the 1st round, grab him. That would make roughly the 10th RB taken. I think he is a good top 10 candidate.

imho

 

[Cecil Lammey]

What a great topic!

I too called Jamal's 2000 yard performance a fluke in the JLew Player Spotlight



I stand by what I say in the PS. Jamal is too much of a wildcard to be drafted in the first round. Early 2nd round? sure. I just wouldn't want him as my RB1.

I am curious Monkey Face, what are your projections for JLew in 2005?

 

[datonn]

Now that's interesting. Your advice to others is to ignore the past performance of a player and instead base your projection on what, gut? Making up excuses for one's past performance leaves your post lacking in any credible value. So I guess we should ignore other players past performance as well or is it just selective and limited to Lewis? Is this just your way of supporting your opinion? In fact I'm surprised you even had this thought to post. Usually you limit your comments to "smileyesse" like this: . For a while I didn't know you had an opinion. At least now you're posting your thoughts and that's a big step for you. So congrats.So if the 2000 yard season wasn't a fluke then why haven't there been more performances that resemble it? You are correct in saying this year sets up better for him but to suggest that he will be a valid 1st round pick when he has only accomplished it 1 time in is career (based on FBG's scoring) is a reach at best. And if you happen to be in a PPR league (many are) then his value is even lower. But by all means, feel free to spend your first rounder on him and then play catch up the rest of the way. No doubt you'll enjoy this all season long.OMG-you crack me up when you make fun at someone using past performance in their evaluations.

I guess this also means that we should all still assume that Randy Moss is a Viking, LaMont Jordan is a Jet, Travis Henry is still the starter for the Bills, Marshall Faulk is THE fantasy football stud and maybe Walter Payton and Barry Sanders should be top-five FFL picks in this year's draft?!There's one MAJOR flaw in weighting past performance too-heavily when creating present/future rankings: things change. The addition of Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton to the Ravens offense will make a BIG difference on that team, bank on it. Jamal Lewis' touches may go down a bit, but his YPC and red-zone touches will go up. Whether you think that ultimately moves him up or down the rankings is up to each of us to decide.Past performance is important, but only if you take it into context with any personnel changes, coaching changes and/or other changes that can impact a player's future performance. After all, if past performance was "THE" factor in determining future performance, then there wouldn't need to be a place like FBGs.com....since we'd all be able to easily forecast and rank players without any help.

 

[ravnzfan]

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year. A few games of trying to pass more, thinking that better receivers this year will help. But receivers don't pass the ball, Boller does, and after a few more games of watching him do it rather poorly again I think Billick will go back to the "we're running, try to stop us" gameplan. At least until they get behind late, or by a lot, in games.

sound like the making of a "side bet"

care to put a couple sheckles on your "expectations"?

Pittsburg is a "run first" football team...618(run) to 358(pass)

the Baltimore splits??? 491(run)-465(pass)

the Ravens will have more pass plays than running plays this year

Baltimore can easily be a run-first team yet end up with more passes than runs. Scenario: they resort to the run as their preferred weapon after seeing a lack of success at improving the passing game. In subsequent games they run first, but in games they get behind by a lot, or late, they resort to passing as a more time-efficient way of catching up before time expires. If you can figure out a way to quantify whether Baltimore does or does not turn into a run-first team during the year, sure, I'm up for a bet. I don't know how to quantify that without a lot of "if's", though.

If it's just a bet you're after, I bet Ramsey has a better year than Boller. Similar situations ----- a good defense, a lousy offense last year, each needing to prove themselves this year.

now the back peddle is on, fatty... can't have it both ways!!!

you said you "DO NOT expect much out of the Raven passing game this year--a few games of trying to pass more "

I have stated repeatedly how much more Baltimore passed in the second half of last season, over the first half...this is not my flying off the handle w/a crazy projection---it is FACT

now increased production??? that remains as the $64,000 question

it's easy to poo-poo Boller and the bunch of knuckleheads he had to throw to last year...

WR1(Taylor) and WR2(KJohnson) are gone---see ya...don't let the door hit you in the ###

enter Mason and Rd1 rookie Clayton, who I expect to split time w/Rd 6 rookie from last year CMoore...Clayton will see the dirty work over the middle, as Moore tended to short arm the tough middle routes

look for Moore in red zone packages, split wide w/Heap---6'6"WR and 6'5"TE at the goalline!

Randy Hymes was asked to start several games(5) while Taylor was hurt, but comes in w/little pressure as WR4

I don't know enough--or care to know enough--about Patrick Ramsey to put my hard earned money where my mouth is....

...you seemed to have seen enough of Boller and the Raven passing game to formulate an opinion, so I ask you again---

care to back your "vision" about my Blackbird passing game this year?

the conditions are:

-Ravens must pass more than they run, total plays

-Boller must be over 515 1/2 attempts (50 1/2 more than last yr)

-exceed 3100 yds passing and 19 1/2 TD's

-no bet if injury prevents a START...KO'd in a game does not nullify, nor does benching 'cause he's stinking up the joint--advantage you here, as my only "out" is if he misses a start due to health...if he sucks as bad as you think he will and gets benched, you are an automatic winner!

if any of those condition are NOT met with 16 starts, you cover---if all 3 are met, I win

at stake...an entry fee for one of our Misfit teams for the '06 season!

wellll????

 

[Chaka]

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year. A few games of trying to pass more, thinking that better receivers this year will help. But receivers don't pass the ball, Boller does, and after a few more games of watching him do it rather poorly again I think Billick will go back to the "we're running, try to stop us" gameplan. At least until they get behind late, or by a lot, in games.

sound like the making of a "side bet"

care to put a couple sheckles on your "expectations"?

Pittsburg is a "run first" football team...618(run) to 358(pass)

the Baltimore splits??? 491(run)-465(pass)

the Ravens will have more pass plays than running plays this year

Baltimore can easily be a run-first team yet end up with more passes than runs. Scenario: they resort to the run as their preferred weapon after seeing a lack of success at improving the passing game. In subsequent games they run first, but in games they get behind by a lot, or late, they resort to passing as a more time-efficient way of catching up before time expires. If you can figure out a way to quantify whether Baltimore does or does not turn into a run-first team during the year, sure, I'm up for a bet. I don't know how to quantify that without a lot of "if's", though.

If it's just a bet you're after, I bet Ramsey has a better year than Boller. Similar situations ----- a good defense, a lousy offense last year, each needing to prove themselves this year.

now the back peddle is on, fatty... can't have it both ways!!!...

...now increased production??? that remains as the $64,000 question...

...you seemed to have seen enough of Boller and the Raven passing game to formulate an opinion, so I ask you again---

care to back your "vision" about my Blackbird passing game this year?

the conditions are:

-Ravens must pass more than they run, total plays

-Boller must be over 515 1/2 attempts (50 1/2 more than last yr)

-exceed 3100 yds passing and 19 1/2 TD's

-no bet if injury prevents a START...KO'd in a game does not nullify, nor does benching 'cause he's stinking up the joint--advantage you here, as my only "out" is if he misses a start due to health...if he sucks as bad as you think he will and gets benched, you are an automatic winner!

if any of those condition are NOT met with 16 starts, you cover---if all 3 are met, I win

at stake...an entry fee for one of our Misfit teams for the '06 season!

wellll????

Take the bet Fatman!!! 19 1/2 TDs from Boller is wishful thinking. The Ravens signed Derrick Mason not Randy Moss! The best Kerry Collins could do under Fassel was 22, 19, 19 & 13 TD passes in a season.

 

[Family Matters]

Past performance is important, but only if you take it into context with any personnel changes, coaching changes and/or other changes that can impact a player's future performance. After all, if past performance was "THE" factor in determining future performance, then there wouldn't need to be a place like FBGs.com....since we'd all be able to easily forecast and rank players without any help.

datoon, you are right on. I am definately not suggesting you ignore any of these factors. In fact, all these factors come into play, just like you say.

Good post!

 

[fatness]

you said you "DO NOT expect much out of the Raven passing game this year--a few games of trying to pass more "

Get the qote right, Mr. Hasty.

I really don't expect too much more from the Ravens passing game this year.

I don't have 100 bucks to spend on betting. If I lose that knocks me out of a fantasy league next year. I wouldn't give that up for my wife, so I certainly won't give that up for you, Featherbrain.

I don't know enough--or care to know enough--about Patrick Ramsey to put my hard earned money where my mouth is....

I'll take your bet, terms you outlined above, for 10 bucks, if you take my Ramsey/Boller bet for 10 bucks. I can afford that. You know as much about Ramsey as I know about Boller, don't play dumb. Your team's QB vs. my team's QB. Winner of my bet is the QB who wins 2 out of 3 of the following categories:total TD's

total passing yards

QB rating

The bragging alone will be worth 100 bucks.

 

[mbuehner]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs 2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs 2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs 2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

Ravens passing game:2000 -- 3102y 20td 19int2002 -- 3118y 20td 14int2003 -- 2517y 16td 19int2004 -- 2559y 13td 11intI think its hard to say for certain that an improved Ravens passing game automatically improved Lewis's numbers, particularly if he isnt getting 3rd down work. I tend towards Woodrows analysis, Lewis is a superior runner, no question, but the problem is he has to have practically record setting rushing stats to be in contention as an elite back. Thats tough to bank on. The only wildcard in my estimation is TD production, which is imo a product more of a dominant offensive line. I dont think the Ravens have that, although their line is quite good. They arent KC/Denver good. On the other hand, Lewis is money in the bank as a weekly producer of top notch RB2 points. If all the stars line up and he has another remarkable year, great. But I wouldnt risk my seaon on it, nor overpay for Lewis.

 

[Irish]

To those that call Lewis a pedestrian back, have obviously never seen the man play football. The dude is big and fast. His OL is top 5 in the league, the offense around him has been vastly improved. And can we please put to rest that one more positive drug test will get him suspended. Lewis is no longer in the NFL substance abuse program. Everything fell into place for him or any other back to gain 2,000 yards, but the guy has the talent and OL to get 1700-1800 yards every season barring injury. As far as Wood changing his opinion on Lewis, that is why I avoid magazines that come out so early.

 

[Jason Wood]

Seems like lots of folks are focused on my use of the word "pedestrian" and in looking back at my initial post I can see why it seems I'm selling Jam short as an NFL rusher...not my intent. As you can see from my spotlight writeup, I say he's had some "pedestrian seasons" but unfortunately I hurredly refer to him as a pedestrian, workhorse back in my initial response in this thread.Just to be clear, I DO NOT view Jam as a "pedestrian" NFL back...it's his fantasy output that I believe is a bit ordinary for someone considered elite otherwise.

 

[datonn]

2000 -- 19.3 carries / 85.3 rushing yards/ 4.4 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2002 -- 19.3 carries / 82.9 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.375 TDs

2003 -- 24.2 carries / 129.1 rushing yards/ 5.3 YPC / 0.875 TDs

2004 -- 19.6 carries / 83.8 rushing yards/ 4.3 YPC / 0.583 TDs

Ravens passing game:2000 -- 3102y 20td 19int

2002 -- 3118y 20td 14int

2003 -- 2517y 16td 19int

2004 -- 2559y 13td 11int

I think its hard to say for certain that an improved Ravens passing game automatically improved Lewis's numbers, particularly if he isnt getting 3rd down work.

I tend towards Woodrows analysis, Lewis is a superior runner, no question, but the problem is he has to have practically record setting rushing stats to be in contention as an elite back. Thats tough to bank on. The only wildcard in my estimation is TD production, which is imo a product more of a dominant offensive line. I dont think the Ravens have that, although their line is quite good. They arent KC/Denver good.

On the other hand, Lewis is money in the bank as a weekly producer of top notch RB2 points. If all the stars line up and he has another remarkable year, great. But I wouldnt risk my seaon on it, nor overpay for Lewis.

That one little word in bold ("improved") confuses me. When have the Ravens had an "improved" passing game since Jamal Lewis has been on the roster? I cannot think of a time, but I'm not a big-time follower of the Ravens either. The only time I can see a dramatically improved passing attack in Baltimore is this off-season (2005) with the additions of Mason and Clayton.....which would mean that we are entering new fantasy ground when it comes to the Ravens passing game and its impact on Jamal Lewis.Nobody knows for sure how things will go down. I know my money's on Jamal Lewis ending up more in the RB9-10 range instead of the RB15-18 range. Lewis taken in the Top Five? A big stretch IMHO. However, getting him later in the first round or "on the turn" in the second seems about right to me...

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

Reminds me of an old saying that applies to posting:"Better to remain to silent (?) have one wonder as to your ignorance then to post and remove all doubt".

Wow, great stuff, Confucius.

 

[VICK-tory]

Who said Jamal wasn't in the NFL drug prog. anymore? I thought he was a three-time violator- - how did he "get out" of the program ? You don't just graduate. He's at the end of the rope, next failed drug test and he's out for 1 yr if not banned, right?

 

[TheLaw]

Who said Jamal wasn't in the NFL drug prog. anymore? I thought he was a three-time violator- - how did he "get out" of the program ? You don't just graduate. He's at the end of the rope, next failed drug test and he's out for 1 yr if not banned, right?

I'm not sure what step he is on - 4gamer or full season. I do not think his conviction was a violation of the drug policy, it was a disciplinary suspension regarding league image.

 

[Unlucky]

I'm with Wood all the way. In fact, I'm lower on Jamal Lewis than Wood. In a basic scoring league (1/10, 6 pt. TDs) I have Lewis tied for #16.I would hope that my draft picks outperform their draft slot, so taking Lewis late 1st or early 2nd just doesn't make sense. It's so unlikely that he outperforms that spot, and certainly possible that he underperforms, especially when you factor in the couple of QBs and WRs that are more valueable than Lewis. Not much more can be said - he put up 3 equal years and 1 fluke year. If you don't think it's a fluke, I've got some wagers for you. I'll give anyone 5 to 1 odds that Lewis doesn't reach 2000 yards rushing. I'll also give 5 to 1 that he doesn't finish in the top 5 for fantasy RBs with 1pt./10yds and 6pts/TD.

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

I'm with Wood all the way. In fact, I'm lower on Jamal Lewis than Wood. In a basic scoring league (1/10, 6 pt. TDs) I have Lewis tied for #16.

I would hope that my draft picks outperform their draft slot, so taking Lewis late 1st or early 2nd just doesn't make sense. It's so unlikely that he outperforms that spot, and certainly possible that he underperforms, especially when you factor in the couple of QBs and WRs that are more valueable than Lewis.

Not much more can be said - he put up 3 equal years and 1 fluke year. If you don't think it's a fluke, I've got some wagers for you. I'll give anyone 5 to 1 odds that Lewis doesn't reach 2000 yards rushing. I'll also give 5 to 1 that he doesn't finish in the top 5 for fantasy RBs with 1pt./10yds and 6pts/TD.

Nobody here has said he will put up 2,000 yards. Nobody. I don't see anyone claiming top 5, either. So, why don't you make some more realistic offers?And calling a SEASON a fluke is laughable. You could make the argument that he had a lucky game here and there to put him over 2K, sure, but an NFL RB doesn't waltz his way through 16 games. And most certainly not in the situation he was in. EVERYBODY knew they could only run.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

Reminds me of an old saying that applies to posting:"Better to remain to silent (?) have one wonder as to your ignorance then to post and remove all doubt".

Wow, great stuff, Confucius.

There's a new ####### in town, and his name's prickly somethingorotherthatwasrecentlybannedbutisbacknow.

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

Reminds me of an old saying that applies to posting:"Better to remain to silent (?) have one wonder as to your ignorance then to post and remove all doubt".

Wow, great stuff, Confucius.

There's a new ###### in town, and his name's prickly somethingorotherthatwasrecentlybannedbutisbacknow.

It's weird that they filter "sheriff". Hmm.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Jamal Lewis is a very pedestrian but solid workhorse back, and decent fantasy RB2...who just happened to have one fluke 2,000 yard year. Honestly. Take away Jam's 2000 yard season and his production in each of his other three years is nearly identical on a per game basis.

With the Ravens committed to throwing the ball more this year, Lewis' limited production as a receiver or goal line back, his ankle, AND Chester Taylor's re-signing, you should NOT overpay for Jam. 2nd round as your RB2? First round?

Reading your post carefully, I agree from a fantasy perspective. First off, as an NFL RB, he's a stud. No question about his impact or what he means to the offense.However, from a fantasy perspective, he is RB2 material in most leagues. Rushing yards are solid but in leagues that offer PPR, he drops to the 2nd round easy. Even in FBG's scoring (non ppr) his best year was a 4th place finish among RB's. His other years were: 16, 12 & 25. In fact, there's other RB's I like better for my fantasy RB1 & RB2 before I take Lewis.

I think he gets more hype because of that 1 year. If you look past that year he's not very impressive and yet people are taking him round 1. So looking at it from an objective point of view, I agree with Jason's comments.

I expect to see FM nuzzle up to staff; but not you.

Reminds me of an old saying that applies to posting:"Better to remain to silent (?) have one wonder as to your ignorance then to post and remove all doubt".

Wow, great stuff, Confucius.

There's a new ###### in town, and his name's prickly somethingorotherthatwasrecentlybannedbutisbacknow.

It's weird that they filter "sheriff". Hmm.

 

[Big Score]

Who said Jamal wasn't in the NFL drug prog. anymore? I thought he was a three-time violator- - how did he "get out" of the program ? You don't just graduate. He's at the end of the rope, next failed drug test and he's out for 1 yr if not banned, right?

Lewis was in Stage Two of the leagues Substance Abuse Program back in 2001.The CBA states this for players in Stage Two

"c. Duration: A player will remain in Stage Two for twenty-four months or two full seasons, whichever is shorter

d. Completion of Stage Two: A player who completes Stage Two without being advanced to Stage Three will be afforded the same status as a player who had never by Behavior or a Positive Test been referred to the Intervention Stages."

www.nflpa.org

So basically after entering Stage Two, as long as a player stays clean for 24 months or 2 seasons (whichever is shorter), they do kind of graduate.

My guess is that Lewis is back in stage one.

 

[Marc Levin]

Who said Jamal wasn't in the NFL drug prog. anymore?  I thought he was a three-time violator- - how did he "get out" of the program ?  You don't just graduate. He's at the end of the rope, next failed drug test and he's out for 1 yr if not banned, right?

I'm not sure what step he is on - 4gamer or full season. I do not think his conviction was a violation of the drug policy, it was a disciplinary suspension regarding league image.

I think he entered the league on the program and then had a violation, but was taken off of it completelty after a few completely clean seasons so he is like any other clean NFL player right now as far as the drug program.

 

[Marc Levin]

ahem, sorry, what Big Score said.Same as what I said, but more "authoritative"

 

[MelvinTScupper]

ahem, sorry, what Big Score said.

Same as what I said, but more "authoritative"

YOU WILL RESPECT MY AUTHORITAAAAHH!

 

[Chaka]

I'm with Wood all the way.  In fact, I'm lower on Jamal Lewis than Wood.  In a basic scoring league (1/10, 6 pt. TDs) I have Lewis tied for #16.

I would hope that my draft picks outperform their draft slot, so taking Lewis late 1st or early 2nd just doesn't make sense.  It's so unlikely that he outperforms that spot, and certainly possible that he underperforms, especially when you factor in the couple of QBs and WRs that are more valueable than Lewis. 

Not much more can be said - he put up 3 equal years and 1 fluke year.  If you don't think it's a fluke, I've got some wagers for you.  I'll give anyone 5 to 1 odds that Lewis doesn't reach 2000 yards rushing.  I'll also give 5 to 1 that he doesn't finish in the top 5 for fantasy RBs with 1pt./10yds and 6pts/TD.

Nobody here has said he will put up 2,000 yards. Nobody. I don't see anyone claiming top 5, either. So, why don't you make some more realistic offers?And calling a SEASON a fluke is laughable. You could make the argument that he had a lucky game here and there to put him over 2K, sure, but an NFL RB doesn't waltz his way through 16 games. And most certainly not in the situation he was in. EVERYBODY knew they could only run.

Balt v Cle 2 games 52 carries 500 yards!!! Maybe a little lucky? Maybe a little flukey too? Just a little but enough to account for the difference between 1,700-1,800 yards and 2,000+ yards. Putting up 1,700+ rushing yards on a consistent basis is unlikely.Emmitt rushed for 1,700+ twice in 15 seasons, Barry did it twice in 10 seasons, O.J. twice in 11 seasons, Walter did it once in in 13 seasons, Curtis Martin & Jerome Bettis (#4 & 5 all time rushers) never hit 1,700 yards, Dickerson had 3 seasons of 1,700+ yards in 11 years. Are you getting my point? There have been a TOTAL of 21 seasons of 1,700+ rushing yards in the history of the NFL (or as long as Pro-football-reference.com keeps statistics). Only five guys have had more than one 1,700+ rushing yard seasons. This is not to say that Jamal wont do it but I just would not rely on it.

Jamal needs to do more in the passing game or you are going to have to rely on a consistent 1,700+ rushing output from him to be a top 5-10 back, and he might (MIGHT) have one more of those types of seasons left IN HIS CAREER.

 

[broncofan13000]

I'm suprised how down people are on Jamal around here. I have him penciled in as my #6 RB this year (LT, Shaun, Edge, Priest, Mcgahee)Jamal has played on average, one of the worst offensive teams for the last few years, and still managed tol put up 1000 yards a season....He still got 7 TD's in 12 games last year...if he plays a full season, on a no doubt improved offense, he should see 12 TD's....And 1300 yards is a reasonable prediction. Jamal has never seen less then 8 in the box, and if Boller and Fassell can open the O at all, it should help Jamals YPC. Baltimore's defense also looks to be improved (LOL) and should keep them in games, keeping Jamal IN games. Pending Jamal is healthy, he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and i would love to get him with a late first

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm suprised how down people are on Jamal around here. I have him penciled in as my #6 RB this year (LT, Shaun, Edge, Priest, Mcgahee)

Jamal has played on average, one of the worst offensive teams for the last few years, and still managed tol put up 1000 yards a season....He still got 7 TD's in 12 games last year...if he plays a full season, on a no doubt improved offense, he should see 12 TD's....And 1300 yards is a reasonable prediction. Jamal has never seen less then 8 in the box, and if Boller and Fassell can open the O at all, it should help Jamals YPC. Baltimore's defense also looks to be improved (LOL) and should keep them in games, keeping Jamal IN games. Pending Jamal is healthy, he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and i would love to get him with a late first

He still got 7 TD's in 12 games last year...if he plays a full season, on a no doubt improved offense, he should see 12 TD's

7 TDs in 12 games = 0.583 TDs per game x 16 games = 9.3 TDs...where do you get 12 from? 2001: 16 games...6 TDs

2002: 16 games...6 TDs rushing, 1 Rec

He had 387 carries in 2003 and still only mustered 14 TDs...so how do you simply project "12" as a logical number?

1300 yards is a reasonable prediction

I agree

Jamal has never seen less then 8 in the box

EVERY NFL back has seen less than 8 in the box, although the point you were trying to make, that he often sees 8 men in the box, makes some sense.

if Boller and Fassel can open the O at all, it should help Jamal's YPC

Conventional wisdom not directly born out by any study or presentation of past data I've seen. But even if we buy into the notion that Jamal will see improved YPC as a result of a more effective passing attack, you also realize it comes at the price of fewer rushing attempts for him, right?

Pending Jamal is healthy, he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder

He's going to miss at least part of training camp and had offseason ankle surgery that he's been unable to rehab under ideal conditions, chip on his shoulder or not, it's risky to bet your fantasy franchise on his having all his ducks in a row from Day One.

 

[datonn]

I guess part of the argument that hasn't been discussed as of yet is Jamal Lewis' rankings compared to other players.An average ranking of running backs by FBGs.com staffers, as of 7/11/05:1. Tomlinson2. Alexander3. James4. Holmes5. McAllister6. McGahee7. Portis8. Barber9. K. Jones10. J. Lewis11. Dillon12. D. Davis13. A. Green14. R. Johnson15. J. JonesA lot of guys are talking about "value" in this thread, and I would agree with Wood & Co. that Jamal Lewis in/near the Top 5 is a BIG stretch. However, Jamal Lewis is a late-first round RB IMHO, and if drafting value and weighting in risk are an important part of the overall RB rankings (um....yep), then J-Lew as a late first rounder doesn't look nearly as risky to me as:1. Shaun Alexander at #2 overall. If he and the Seahawks kiss and make up, he should easily be top five. However, if I'm drafting in the 1.2 slot today and Tomlinson is off the board, I'm probably trying to trade down to 1.5-1.6 and get an extra pick later in the draft....since the top 6-7 RB all have a lot of risk being drafted that high on the board. Let some other guy pay full/inflated value at the 2 slot. 2. Priest Holmes at #4 overall. I don't like the way this season is setting up for Holmes. It just doesn't FEEL right. (?) It helps AND hurts having Derrick Blaylock off the bench, but what about Larry Johnson? Priest isn't getting any younger, and if the Chiefs are smart, they'll try to control his number of touches a bit more this season.6. Willis McGahee at #6 overall. He could finish top-three. He could be this year's Clinton Portis. Who knows?! I guess #6 is about where he should go, but I still worry a bit about him as an injury risk.To move Lewis down to RB15-18, you gotta find another 5-8 RBs to move ahead of him. C. Dillon, R. Johnson, J.Jones, C. Martin and T. Bell MIGHT be those guys....although I would rather have Lewis than every one of those other players at this stage of the game.My

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

I guess part of the argument that hasn't been discussed as of yet is Jamal Lewis' rankings compared to other players.

An average ranking of running backs by FBGs.com staffers, as of 7/11/05:

1. Tomlinson

2. Alexander

3. James

4. Holmes

5. McAllister

6. McGahee

7. Portis

8. Barber

9. K. Jones

10. J. Lewis

11. Dillon

12. D. Davis

13. A. Green

14. R. Johnson

15. J. Jones

A lot of guys are talking about "value" in this thread, and I would agree with Wood & Co. that Jamal Lewis in/near the Top 5 is a BIG stretch.  However, Jamal Lewis is a late-first round RB IMHO, and if drafting value and weighting in risk are an important part of the overall RB rankings (um....yep), then J-Lew as a late first rounder doesn't look nearly as risky to me as:

1. Shaun Alexander at #2 overall.  If he and the Seahawks kiss and make up, he should easily be top five.  However, if I'm drafting in the 1.2 slot today and Tomlinson is off the board, I'm probably trying to trade down to 1.5-1.6 and get an extra pick later in the draft....since the top 6-7 RB all have a lot of risk being drafted that high on the board.  Let some other guy pay full/inflated value at the 2 slot. 

2. Priest Holmes at #4 overall.  I don't like the way this season is setting up for Holmes.  It just doesn't FEEL right.  (?)  It helps AND hurts having Derrick Blaylock off the bench, but what about Larry Johnson?  Priest isn't getting any younger, and if the Chiefs are smart, they'll try to control his number of touches a bit more this season.

6. Willis McGahee at #6 overall.  He could finish top-three.  He could be this year's Clinton Portis.  Who knows?!  I guess #6 is about where he should go, but I still worry a bit about him as an injury risk.

To move Lewis down to RB15-18, you gotta find another 5-8 RBs to move ahead of him.  C. Dillon, R. Johnson, J.Jones, C. Martin and T. Bell MIGHT be those guys....although I would rather have Lewis than every one of those other players at this stage of the game.

My

HOWEVER, the only mention of Jamal Lewis in the top 5 was from Unlucky, who was trying to bolster his argument against, or field some outlandish bets -- I don't know. But, please note that that is not what started this debate.

The issue, more or less, was whether Lewis was first round material...and why.

 

[Marc Levin]

The issue, more or less, was whether Lewis was first round material...and why.

Well - I think that is only one of a few issues goign on in this thread, and lately in this thread.I don't think anyone - including Jason - seriously contends that JLew is not worthy of a late first round pick, though several, myself included, could see that as a "zero-sum" value decision.

 

[Jason Wood]

The issue, more or less, was whether Lewis was first round material...and why.

Well - I think that is only one of a few issues goign on in this thread, and lately in this thread.I don't think anyone - including Jason - seriously contends that JLew is not worthy of a late first round pick, though several, myself included, could see that as a "zero-sum" value decision.

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

 

[datonn]

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"? My thinking is that unless you think a guy like Dillon, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, etc. is going to have a much better year than most of the "experts" do, and that everyone but you/us/??? have them rated way too low, you're picking zero-sum value in almost every case in the first round.Unless a "consensus" guy shockingly drops out of the top 6-8 picks for no reason, I think it's hard to say that you are drafting "good value" until you're out of the first round. I'm generally a believer in the old adage that you can rarely win your FFL leagues in the first round of a draft, but you can easily lose them. We're simply looking for the best value/player available at our slots...and the best value in many cases IS the zero-sum value play unless you've got ***** the size of coconuts and are willing to gamble your season on a Tatum Bell or Julius Jones.....

 

[Jason Wood]

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"? My thinking is that unless you think a guy like Dillon, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, etc. is going to have a much better year than most of the "experts" do, and that everyone but you/us/??? have them rated way too low, you're picking zero-sum value in almost every case in the first round.

Unless a "consensus" guy shockingly drops out of the top 6-8 picks for no reason, I think it's hard to say that you are drafting "good value" until you're out of the first round. I'm generally a believer in the old adage that you can rarely win your FFL leagues in the first round of a draft, but you can easily lose them. We're simply looking for the best value/player available at our slots...and the best value in many cases IS the zero-sum value play unless you've got ***** the size of coconuts and are willing to gamble your season on a Tatum Bell or Julius Jones.....

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

 

[wannabee]

to gain value, you have to look outside of the box for answers. This might include Manning, Moss, TO or a slew of other RBs including DDavis, Lewis, or another RB.To the point, the better question might be: Would a QB (manning, or cpepp) a WR (moss or to) give you a better team than Lewis.Maybe, that is why it is called VBD. I, personally would consider only Manning or Moss ahead of guys like Lewis or Davis.

 

[Marc Levin]

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"?

Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning or Daunte Culpepper. I'll take any of them in the first plus whatever RB is available on the comeback (I'd expect one of JLew, Dillon, CuMar, or Dom Davis to be available given your selections above) and allow JLew to slip past the 1.10 spot.

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"? My thinking is that unless you think a guy like Dillon, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, etc. is going to have a much better year than most of the "experts" do, and that everyone but you/us/??? have them rated way too low, you're picking zero-sum value in almost every case in the first round.

Unless a "consensus" guy shockingly drops out of the top 6-8 picks for no reason, I think it's hard to say that you are drafting "good value" until you're out of the first round. I'm generally a believer in the old adage that you can rarely win your FFL leagues in the first round of a draft, but you can easily lose them. We're simply looking for the best value/player available at our slots...and the best value in many cases IS the zero-sum value play unless you've got ***** the size of coconuts and are willing to gamble your season on a Tatum Bell or Julius Jones.....

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

But he's saying that your other choices don't have much upside, either, unless you're willing to roll some dice. Who would they be, for that matter?

 

[Marc Levin]

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"? My thinking is that unless you think a guy like Dillon, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, etc. is going to have a much better year than most of the "experts" do, and that everyone but you/us/??? have them rated way too low, you're picking zero-sum value in almost every case in the first round.

Unless a "consensus" guy shockingly drops out of the top 6-8 picks for no reason, I think it's hard to say that you are drafting "good value" until you're out of the first round. I'm generally a believer in the old adage that you can rarely win your FFL leagues in the first round of a draft, but you can easily lose them. We're simply looking for the best value/player available at our slots...and the best value in many cases IS the zero-sum value play unless you've got ***** the size of coconuts and are willing to gamble your season on a Tatum Bell or Julius Jones.....

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

But he's saying that your other choices don't have much upside, either, unless you're willing to roll some dice. Who would they be, for that matter?

Good point - but guys like Manning, Moss, etc. are not zero-sum at that point - they are projected to be WAY above the other players at their position, so they are the equivelant of taking a guy like LT or Priest. They are only zero-sum since they are the first WR/QB off the board, so you expect them to be #1.Taking JLew when you don't believe in JLew's upside is actually worse value than taking the guy you expetct to be the #1 overall WR or QB.

 

[datonn]

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

Jason,I agree that at least 1 QB and 1-2 WR would/should likely go in the top 12 of most standard-scoring league drafts. However, you're kind of dodging my question. Most of this thread hasn't been talking about Jamal Lewis as the #15-18 OVERALL player. It has been talking about several people questioning his ranking as the RB15-18....which is a HUGE difference (although I now see J-Lew at RB14 in your most recent rankings)! Your recent point only compounds this fact, as down at RB15-18, you might have had 3-4 WRs and 2-3 QBs go off the board by the time J-Lew is selected. That means that Jamal Lewis could potentially be drafted at "zero-sum value" in the early THIRD round of most 10-12 team leagues (#20-25 overall)...a full round later than where you had been saying he would be a reasonable/fair value in the second round several posts ago. Does anyone else out there think they could bet any of their league mates $100 that Jamal Lewis would still be on the board at 3.01 and not lose their shirts, or that any FBGs staffer wouldn't be touting their "steal of the draft" in any expert mock/league after picking Lewis up at 3.01?!I'm not trying to mince words or beat a dead horse here! I'm just really interested in this topic, since there seems to be such a wide variety of opinions regarding Jamal Lewis' value heading into Camp this year.

 

[Marc Levin]

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

Jason,I agree that at least 1 QB and 1-2 WR would/should likely go in the top 12 of most standard-scoring league drafts. However, you're kind of dodging my question. Most of this thread hasn't been talking about Jamal Lewis as the #15-18 OVERALL player. It has been talking about several people questioning his ranking as the RB15-18....which is a HUGE difference (although I now see J-Lew at RB14 in your most recent rankings)!

Your recent point only compounds this fact, as down at RB15-18, you might have had 3-4 WRs and 2-3 QBs go off the board by the time J-Lew is selected. That means that Jamal Lewis could potentially be drafted at "zero-sum value" in the early THIRD round of most 10-12 team leagues (#20-25 overall)...a full round later than where you had been saying he would be a reasonable/fair value in the second round several posts ago. Does anyone else out there think they could bet any of their league mates $100 that Jamal Lewis would still be on the board at 3.01 and not lose their shirts, or that any FBGs staffer wouldn't be touting their "steal of the draft" in any expert mock/league after picking Lewis up at 3.01?!

I'm not trying to mince words or beat a dead horse here! I'm just really interested in this topic, since there seems to be such a wide variety of opinions regarding Jamal Lewis' value heading into Camp this year.

Zero-sum is a loaded term based on your projections.Even given Jason's projection of "pedestrian" fantasy RB numbers - 1200 -1400 yards and 6-8 TDs (very low, imo - I project JLew at around 1600 total yards - 1500 rushing - 10-12 TDs - all rushing), taking JLew anywhere after the mid-2nd is getting very good value. I think Jason is saying JLew is zero-sum value at about 2.04/2.06, and anytime after that is good value.

Conversely, he is saying that low first, early second may be SLIGHTLY high to be taking him, but certainly not outlandish - especially given the importance of a starting RB on a fantasy squad.

He fully recognizes his projections for JLew are lower than the vast bulk of us.

 

[broncofan13000]

I'm suprised how down people are on Jamal around here. I have him penciled in as my #6 RB this year (LT, Shaun, Edge, Priest, Mcgahee)

Jamal has played on average, one of the worst offensive teams for the last few years, and still managed tol put up 1000 yards a season....He still got 7 TD's in 12 games last year...if he plays a full season, on a no doubt improved offense, he should see 12 TD's....And 1300 yards is a reasonable prediction. Jamal has never seen less then 8 in the box, and if Boller and Fassell can open the O at all, it should help Jamals YPC. Baltimore's defense also looks to be improved (LOL) and should keep them in games, keeping Jamal IN games. Pending Jamal is healthy, he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and i would love to get him with a late first 

He still got 7 TD's in 12 games last year...if he plays a full season, on a no doubt improved offense, he should see 12 TD's

7 TDs in 12 games = 0.583 TDs per game x 16 games = 9.3 TDs...where do you get 12 from? 2001: 16 games...6 TDs

2002: 16 games...6 TDs rushing, 1 Rec

He had 387 carries in 2003 and still only mustered 14 TDs...so how do you simply project "12" as a logical number?

1300 yards is a reasonable prediction

I agree

Jamal has never seen less then 8 in the box

EVERY NFL back has seen less than 8 in the box, although the point you were trying to make, that he often sees 8 men in the box, makes some sense.

if Boller and Fassel can open the O at all, it should help Jamal's YPC

Conventional wisdom not directly born out by any study or presentation of past data I've seen. But even if we buy into the notion that Jamal will see improved YPC as a result of a more effective passing attack, you also realize it comes at the price of fewer rushing attempts for him, right?

Pending Jamal is healthy, he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder

He's going to miss at least part of training camp and had offseason ankle surgery that he's been unable to rehab under ideal conditions, chip on his shoulder or not, it's risky to bet your fantasy franchise on his having all his ducks in a row from Day One.

The 12 TD's is possible on an improved offense (which all signs point too)By opening up the O and being able to throw downfield, it could increase the # of redzone oppurtunities Baltimore has this year. Instead of running with Jamal every play they will have another way of moving the firstdown marker, making it easier for Jamal to get more touches and more TD's.

And all this is pending Jamal is healthy.

I dunno, i would still love to have him late first round

 

[Jason Wood]

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

Jason,I agree that at least 1 QB and 1-2 WR would/should likely go in the top 12 of most standard-scoring league drafts. However, you're kind of dodging my question. Most of this thread hasn't been talking about Jamal Lewis as the #15-18 OVERALL player. It has been talking about several people questioning his ranking as the RB15-18....which is a HUGE difference (although I now see J-Lew at RB14 in your most recent rankings)!

Your recent point only compounds this fact, as down at RB15-18, you might have had 3-4 WRs and 2-3 QBs go off the board by the time J-Lew is selected. That means that Jamal Lewis could potentially be drafted at "zero-sum value" in the early THIRD round of most 10-12 team leagues (#20-25 overall)...a full round later than where you had been saying he would be a reasonable/fair value in the second round several posts ago. Does anyone else out there think they could bet any of their league mates $100 that Jamal Lewis would still be on the board at 3.01 and not lose their shirts, or that any FBGs staffer wouldn't be touting their "steal of the draft" in any expert mock/league after picking Lewis up at 3.01?!

I'm not trying to mince words or beat a dead horse here! I'm just really interested in this topic, since there seems to be such a wide variety of opinions regarding Jamal Lewis' value heading into Camp this year.

Hey datonn,I understand what you're getting at now. Let me see if this closes the gap...

1) Yes, I think Jamal will be drafted long before 3.01 in nearly every redraft this year

2) No, I don't think his current ADP offers much if any upside

Does that answer the question?

 

[Unlucky]

Nobody here has said he will put up 2,000 yards. Nobody. I don't see anyone claiming top 5, either. So, why don't you make some more realistic offers?

And calling a SEASON a fluke is laughable. You could make the argument that he had a lucky game here and there to put him over 2K, sure, but an NFL RB doesn't waltz his way through 16 games. And most certainly not in the situation he was in. EVERYBODY knew they could only run.

Well, if nobody thinks he'll get 2000 yards or be a top 5 fantasy RB, then why do people think he's a good pick late in the 1st round? I would hope that the RB I take at the end of round 1 has some chance of being a top 5 RB. Otherwise, I don't get much value. By "fluke", I mean his season totals were out of the ordinary, and many things had to break right for it to happen. If you don't consider his 2000+ yard season a fluke, then you must feel that it's possible for it to happen again. I don't mean it's a fluke in that he didn't earn it or deserve it, but rather all of the pieces came together just right.

As for all the people thinking that an improved passing game will help Lewis' stats, I think you are all wrong. Teams are NOT going to stop putting 8 in the box to stop Lewis just because the Ravens might be better at passing. Baltimore isn't going to become KC or STL or IND all of a sudden. Teams will still focus on Lewis, and force Boller to beat them. If they stop focusing on Lewis, it's because he's not effective, and thus he won't be a good fantasy RB.

 

[Monkeyface Prickleback]

Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.

Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"? My thinking is that unless you think a guy like Dillon, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, etc. is going to have a much better year than most of the "experts" do, and that everyone but you/us/??? have them rated way too low, you're picking zero-sum value in almost every case in the first round.

Unless a "consensus" guy shockingly drops out of the top 6-8 picks for no reason, I think it's hard to say that you are drafting "good value" until you're out of the first round. I'm generally a believer in the old adage that you can rarely win your FFL leagues in the first round of a draft, but you can easily lose them. We're simply looking for the best value/player available at our slots...and the best value in many cases IS the zero-sum value play unless you've got ***** the size of coconuts and are willing to gamble your season on a Tatum Bell or Julius Jones.....

In nearly every league format I can envision, my top 12 wouldn't all be RBs...and since I have Jam ranked outside the top 12 at RB (much less overall), there are players I believe should be taken over him regardless of whether those guys you listed are off the board.

But he's saying that your other choices don't have much upside, either, unless you're willing to roll some dice. Who would they be, for that matter?

Good point - but guys like Manning, Moss, etc. are not zero-sum at that point - they are projected to be WAY above the other players at their position, so they are the equivelant of taking a guy like LT or Priest. They are only zero-sum since they are the first WR/QB off the board, so you expect them to be #1.Taking JLew when you don't believe in JLew's upside is actually worse value than taking the guy you expetct to be the #1 overall WR or QB.

No way is Manning still on the board. He shouldn't be in this discussion. I'd still like to hear the players that AREN'T zero-sum, AT THAT POINT, who Jason, or yourself, would prefer.