cantstop1999
Footballguy
with 1 week down how do you guys feel now?
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jamal lewis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter cantstop1999
- Start date
cantstop1999
Footballguy
same here but many people were down on him do they feel the same?
bentley
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure my opinion of him hasn't changed. I was slightly pleasantly surprised with what I got from him in week one. I think the questions about his injury status are probably going to linger throughout the season, but that he'll end up putting up decent enough RB2 numbers.
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
His ceiling is 78 yds?
Bankerguy
Footballguy
painkiller
Footballguy
I drafted him as an RB2 and I still think he'll perform that role well. I have no expectations of 2000 yards, but I don't think that 1,400 and 10 TDs is too much to expect. I think his ceiling is a bit higher -- 1,600 and 15 TDs.
If he's somewhere in that range, he's well worth the 4th round pick (~50th overall) I used on him.
If he's somewhere in that range, he's well worth the 4th round pick (~50th overall) I used on him.
bentley
Footballguy
If he goes 1248/16, I'll eat my hat.
cantstop1999
Footballguy
i got him in the 5th i think it was pick 53 , i wasnt to happy at the time but with LT and gate and chambers as my first 3 im now pleased.
jurb26
Footballguy
WTF? The TDs I can understand. 16 is a lot for any RB. 1248 yds should be a near cakewalk for Lewis this year though.
bentley
Footballguy
I was only talking about total points in my original post. But, now that you bring it up, only nine backs went for more than 1248 last year. Are you sure it's a near cakewalk?
jurb26
Footballguy
For Lewis, yeah.
Code:
Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 bal | 16 | 309 1364 4.4 6 | 27 296 11.0 0 || 2002 bal | 16 | 308 1327 4.3 6 | 47 442 9.4 1 || 2003 bal | 16 | 387 2066 5.3 14 | 26 205 7.9 0 || 2004 bal | 12 | 235 1006 4.3 7 | 10 116 11.6 0 || 2005 bal | 15 | 269 906 3.4 3 | 32 191 6.0 1 || 2006 bal | 1 | 18 78 4.3 1 | 0 0 0.0 0 |
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walkwithme
Footballguy
I scooped him up in the 4th round knowing he would be usefull because people were underestimating him. There were three starting RB's I knew would not get drafted at their actual worth (Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, and Fred Taylor). Green and Taylor went in the 6th I got Green as well. Jamal just like the other three I mentioned were out to prove crtics wrong for one thing or another. I projected around 1400 total yards for Lewis with about 7-8 td's. I will take that as a good season as a 4th round pick and my 3rd RB selected
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bentley
Footballguy
I respectfully disagree. What have you seen that would make this different. I see a guy that played 12 games two years ago, and averaged 3.4 yards a carry last year. I think 1248 would be a pretty decent year.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Musa Smith brotha. Musa. Smith.
jurb26
Footballguy
Why do people continually discount the impact of all the things that went wrong for Lewis a year ago. His demise last year should have been anticipated by anyone paying attentions. The guy was coming off and injury in which he never got proper taining and treatment. Was in jail where he did not get to work out to prepair for an NFL season. Had both his Oline and D fall apart at the seems. Most of all, was a boraderline headcase due to stress. What the heck where you expecting last year? None of thse such problems exhist this year. Lewis is still only what, 26 or 27 years old. The kneejerk reaction to his career being over is severly unwarranted. Has Lewis not gotten hurt in 2004, he easily outpaces 1200 yds and hits double digit TDs. My guess is had he not gotten hurt that year, we are not even having this discussion right now as it was only a one year "slump." Even though on a per game basis, 2004 was no slump at all. Lewis will be back this year.
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The Scorpion
Footballguy
Cannot find anything on him being questionable, anyone know anything?
bentley
Footballguy
He's questionable. Heard earlier that everyone on the Ravens injury list was questionable. None probable or doubtful.
jurb26
Footballguy
Find the aberration, yds per game:85.25/82.93/129.12/83.83/60.4Unless you are predicting an injury, Lewis going to jail, a complete Oline breakdown or him suddenly failing victim of lard but syndrom midseason I really see no conceivable reason to not expect Lewis to be back up towards 80+ yds per game on the ground. That is close to 1300 yds. I'm not offended by your projection, I just think it lacks sense and ignores the facts of the past season. Facts that are all well documented. Last year was the aberration. Never before has Lewis had that many things go wrong and this year has shown no indication that any of them will again this year.
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gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
I think 1250 is a reasonable estimate -- but you said the best anyone could hope for was 78 yds and a TD. That's his ceiling. You don't think he's going to have one 100 yd rushing game this season?
bentley
Footballguy
Really, all I was trying to say is that 13.8 is about as good as it gets for him. If he does that every week, I'd be damn happy. But it's not like he's a back on the upside of his career with breakout potential.
bentley
Footballguy
So we're arguing over 1250 vs. 1300? This is productive.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jamal still is suffering the effects of his hip injury it seems. He is definitly a nice start this week against the Raiders.
The offseason move for Mike Anderson and Lewis being on the injury report are flags that should make a JL owner nervous about his endurance and longevity. Also Musa Smith is looming. But he is a tough Rb who has recovered from major injury more than once before to again play well.
The defense seems to be even better with Ngata on point and the return to health of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. The offense should have an advantage in TOP most of the year. Especialy with McNair who for the 1st time gives the Ravens offense balance. They should convert more 3rd downs and maintain longer drives.
If Jamal Lewis can stay healthy he could be in for an outstanding year. Because the offense looks to have more scoring ops now than when they were much more one dimensional.
The offseason move for Mike Anderson and Lewis being on the injury report are flags that should make a JL owner nervous about his endurance and longevity. Also Musa Smith is looming. But he is a tough Rb who has recovered from major injury more than once before to again play well.
The defense seems to be even better with Ngata on point and the return to health of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. The offense should have an advantage in TOP most of the year. Especialy with McNair who for the 1st time gives the Ravens offense balance. They should convert more 3rd downs and maintain longer drives.
If Jamal Lewis can stay healthy he could be in for an outstanding year. Because the offense looks to have more scoring ops now than when they were much more one dimensional.
jurb26
Footballguy
No, I was agrueing the fact that you said if he goes for 1250 (maintaining his current pace) you'll "eat your hat." As though it was highly unlikely.
bentley
Footballguy
Maybe you missed the "and 16 touchdowns" part of that statement.
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
who claimed he was going to rush for 16 TDs?
jurb26
Footballguy
Maybe you missed the part where I singled out the yds and you then said:
bentley
Footballguy
All I said was that if he went for 1248/16 I'd eat my hat. And also that it wouldn't necessarily be a cakewalk that he finished in the top ten in rushing.
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
No, it may not be a cakewalk, but would it be that surprising if he outrushed Caddy or FWP or Lamont Jordan or even Ronnie Brown? I wouldn't be that surprised at all, and for the price people paid to draft him he could end up being one of the best values out there.
Pedro Cerrano Fan
Footballguy
Why do you go by yards per game? In your league do they give you extrapolated ppg contingent upon injury? That's quite a forgiving league.
bentley
Footballguy
I agree that he could be a great value. He'd be a value in most leagues at 1200/9. In my auction league, I got him as the 19th highest paid running back. And I'm very happy at that. Hopefully he can maintain his week one pace and he'll be a steal at that, but I'm not sure to expect a weekly total that matches was he got in the first week.
jurb26
Footballguy
So you predict an injury to Lewis this year. Care to give me tomarrows lottery numbers too?
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bentley
Footballguy
I hate people that bump old threads when they're right.
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
jurb26
Footballguy
The timing of your bump greatly contradicts what you're saying.
bentley
Footballguy
Just hoping to create reverse mojo for Lewis at this point.The timing of your bump greatly contradicts what you're saying.
jurb26
Footballguy
SD maybe the best rushing D in the NFL this year. They were top 5 going into the game and #1 last year. Shouldn't be too surprising that Balt struggled to run the ball vs them. Lewis will see better days...... like when they meat Cincy 2 times.Just hoping to create reverse mojo for Lewis at this point.The timing of your bump greatly contradicts what you're saying.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
And Cleveland.SD maybe the best rushing D in the NFL this year. They were top 5 going into the game and #1 last year. Shouldn't be too surprising that Balt struggled to run the ball vs them. Lewis will see better days...... like when they meat Cincy 2 times.Just hoping to create reverse mojo for Lewis at this point.The timing of your bump greatly contradicts what you're saying.
He has already played Cleveland this season, 21 carries for 86 yards and a fumble.Not terrible but not great.Besides SD, the Ravens opponents have not been great rush defenses and have given up much more yardage to other teams this season.The Ravens rank 22nd or so in rushing, do you see that changing?And Cleveland.SD maybe the best rushing D in the NFL this year. They were top 5 going into the game and #1 last year. Shouldn't be too surprising that Balt struggled to run the ball vs them. Lewis will see better days...... like when they meat Cincy 2 times.
Ahmad Rashad
Footballguy
That should change when Musa gets more playing time. He's much more explosive than Jamal.He has already played Cleveland this season, 21 carries for 86 yards and a fumble.Not terrible but not great.Besides SD, the Ravens opponents have not been great rush defenses and have given up much more yardage to other teams this season.The Ravens rank 22nd or so in rushing, do you see that changing?And Cleveland.SD maybe the best rushing D in the NFL this year. They were top 5 going into the game and #1 last year. Shouldn't be too surprising that Balt struggled to run the ball vs them. Lewis will see better days...... like when they meat Cincy 2 times.
Predictably, Lewis is a sinking ship. Get off while he still has value. The guy needs a ton of carries to be valuable and he wont/cant get them in this offense and with his health limiting his carries. Right now he is projected for 292 carries and 1084 yards, 4 tds. I think he may outperform that, but not by much. Even if he stays healthy this season, he'll be one of those guys that gives you 60-80 yards and no tds most weeks, which is generally fantasy death unless you have a remarkable team otherwise. It's basically what Freddy Taylor has been the last couple of years- compiles a decent season on paper but doesnt produce the big games that put you over the top.
The argument is that he should still outperform where he was drafted- but the counter argument is that it doesnt matter because if a guy isnt startable he is practically useless. Performance is only part of the equation- upside is the other. Other people that were drafted in that neighborhood (rookies like Maroney, Adai- young guys like Gore, versatile vets coming off injury like Green and McAllister ) can and have made major impacts. If you look at the Lewis situation with a critical eye, that was never a strong possibility. Look at the 15 RBs drafted after Lewis (ADP):
44 44 0 RB23 Corey Dillon NE/6
45 45 0 RB24 Frank Gore SF/7
53 57 4 RB25 Thomas Jones Chi/7
59 54 -5 RB26 Mike Bell Den/4
63 65 2 RB27 Fred Taylor Jac/6
64 60 -4 RB28 Joseph Addai Ind/6
67 72 5 RB29 Deuce McAllister NO/7
68 69 1 RB30 Tatum Bell Den/4
70 71 1 RB31 Ahman Green GB/6
71 68 -3 RB32 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6
77 75 -2 RB33 Laurence Maroney NE/6
79 83 4 RB34 DeAngelo Williams Car/9
88 85 -3 RB35 Chris Brown Ten/7
93 82 -11 RB36 Cedric Benson Chi/7
97 96 -1 RB37 Kevan Barlow NYJ/9 <missed this one first post>
9 out of 15 have outperformed Lewis- and of the ones that havent the jury is still out on for most of them (Deangelo, Cedric, Tatum). <should be 10 of 15, Barlow is 6 FPs ahead of Lewis>
The argument is that he should still outperform where he was drafted- but the counter argument is that it doesnt matter because if a guy isnt startable he is practically useless. Performance is only part of the equation- upside is the other. Other people that were drafted in that neighborhood (rookies like Maroney, Adai- young guys like Gore, versatile vets coming off injury like Green and McAllister ) can and have made major impacts. If you look at the Lewis situation with a critical eye, that was never a strong possibility. Look at the 15 RBs drafted after Lewis (ADP):
44 44 0 RB23 Corey Dillon NE/6
45 45 0 RB24 Frank Gore SF/7
53 57 4 RB25 Thomas Jones Chi/7
59 54 -5 RB26 Mike Bell Den/4
63 65 2 RB27 Fred Taylor Jac/6
64 60 -4 RB28 Joseph Addai Ind/6
67 72 5 RB29 Deuce McAllister NO/7
68 69 1 RB30 Tatum Bell Den/4
70 71 1 RB31 Ahman Green GB/6
71 68 -3 RB32 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6
77 75 -2 RB33 Laurence Maroney NE/6
79 83 4 RB34 DeAngelo Williams Car/9
88 85 -3 RB35 Chris Brown Ten/7
93 82 -11 RB36 Cedric Benson Chi/7
97 96 -1 RB37 Kevan Barlow NYJ/9 <missed this one first post>
9 out of 15 have outperformed Lewis- and of the ones that havent the jury is still out on for most of them (Deangelo, Cedric, Tatum). <should be 10 of 15, Barlow is 6 FPs ahead of Lewis>
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Warpig
Footballguy
Let's see, they've played the Raiders, Titans, and Browns...3 of the worst defenses in the league and he couldn't muster anything better than mediocre numbers at best. The future does not look bright for Jamal. I would try to get anything I could for him. I'm trying to get rid of him in my 32 team league so I can start playing Jerious Norwood. Atleast Norwood does something with the opportunities he's given.He has already played Cleveland this season, 21 carries for 86 yards and a fumble.Not terrible but not great.Besides SD, the Ravens opponents have not been great rush defenses and have given up much more yardage to other teams this season.The Ravens rank 22nd or so in rushing, do you see that changing?And Cleveland.SD maybe the best rushing D in the NFL this year. They were top 5 going into the game and #1 last year. Shouldn't be too surprising that Balt struggled to run the ball vs them. Lewis will see better days...... like when they meat Cincy 2 times.
bentley
Footballguy
On pace for 1100/9. Looks like I overprojected.
jurb26
Footballguy
1248/9 RB 16. Looks like you got fair value if not good value.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
dynasty - sell high?
