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Javon Walker (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
I do agree, however, I think improving is nothing short of 100% guaranteed. Better RBs and a very talented QB with an entire off-season are a
NorrisB
Footballguy
Cutler was top ten in ff pts/game in 06', I imagine he's going to be better this year
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Sure he'll improve some, but enough to justify Walker's ranking?? Here are his numbers once Cutler was inserted into the lineup:I do agree, however, I think improving is nothing short of 100% guaranteed. Better RBs and a very talented QB with an entire off-season are a
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+----------+--------+-------------+----+| WK OPP | RSHYD | REC YD | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+| 13 sea | 0 | 2 17 | 0 || 14 sdg | 0 | 4 52 | 0 || 15 ari | 0 | 5 84 | 1 || 16 cin | 3 | 3 52 | 1 || 17 sfo | 0 | 4 25 | 0 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
I thought they were looking at AD?
wannabee
Footballguy
this was what I read as well ...
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Cutler averaged roughly 200 yards/game and threw 9 TDs in 5 games.
In 11 games Plummer averaged fewer yards and threw only 11 TDs.
It is a small sample size, but it appears the yards will be there. Will Walker get the bulk of them and be a top WR?
Brandon Marshall got a lot more looks and stats once Cutler came on. The real question is was this by design in more 3 receiver sets, or did Cutler look for Marshall on his own?
Either way, Walker will have more time to develop a relationship with Cutler and should post better numbers than last year.
In 11 games Plummer averaged fewer yards and threw only 11 TDs.
It is a small sample size, but it appears the yards will be there. Will Walker get the bulk of them and be a top WR?
Brandon Marshall got a lot more looks and stats once Cutler came on. The real question is was this by design in more 3 receiver sets, or did Cutler look for Marshall on his own?
Either way, Walker will have more time to develop a relationship with Cutler and should post better numbers than last year.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Where do you have him in your WR rankings?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
That's a quality thought right there.Denver was in the playoff hunt until deep into the season so I don't think one can say they wanted to "develop" Marshall or even preserve Walker.
-OZ-
Footballguy
You're right, there's no way Walker scores more TDs than there are threads about him this off season.At this rate, he may not have more receptions.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I haven't completed my rankings yet, I usually wait until after the draft to compare and contrast players based on what teams have done in FA and what they did in the draft.Walker finished 9th last year with 174.7 points, despite his poor showing down the stretch.To jump to #5 he would only need 4.1 more points. I don't see anyone below him in the rankings that I expect to jump ahead of him so looking at the guys above.#1 Harrison - He has another year in him#2 Owens - Looks like he did a little better with Romo than Bledsoe. Could blow up in Year #2 in Dallas so some risk here#3 Wayne - I see no change here#4 C Johnson - More than 1/3 of his points came in two games. I could see him slipping a couple of spots due to the presense of Housh. As a combo they will have less points than Harrison/Wayne#5 Holt - Up and down year. Has been consistant for too many years in a row to expect a slip#6 Driver - Continually under-rated. Depends if Moss comes to town. If not he should be here again, maybe a little slip.#7 Evans - I expect improvement next year#8 S Smith - Will move up if he can stay healthyRight now I would put Walker around #7, but like I mentioned this is a tight grouping of players and he could end up a couple spots higher or lower.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I count two since the season ended, but thanks for your contribution.
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Walker also wore down towards the end of the year after missing the previous year so consider that.
Cutler developed a strong bond with Marshall and Schefller and never developed much of a connection with Walker. I think Cutler even mentioned it once in an interview.
I expect that with Cutler having more experience, plus a solid #1 RB to keep defenses honest, that Walker will put up similar if not slightly better numbers next year.
Another issue was the lack of time Cutler often had to throw the ball, especially with that POS at RT in George Foster. But with Graham now in the fold to help block, Lepsis returning, and Pears/Meadows playing at RT he will have better protection to look down the field.
Finally, Cutler and I believe Hermdinger were talking recently about their desire to stretch the field more and throw the ball down the field. The offense was set up for Plummer, who doesn't have near the arm strength of Cutler, so it was a bunch of underneath and medium length routes. I expect the Broncos to open it up and stretch the field more, which will benefit Walker especially.
Cutler developed a strong bond with Marshall and Schefller and never developed much of a connection with Walker. I think Cutler even mentioned it once in an interview.
I expect that with Cutler having more experience, plus a solid #1 RB to keep defenses honest, that Walker will put up similar if not slightly better numbers next year.
Another issue was the lack of time Cutler often had to throw the ball, especially with that POS at RT in George Foster. But with Graham now in the fold to help block, Lepsis returning, and Pears/Meadows playing at RT he will have better protection to look down the field.
Finally, Cutler and I believe Hermdinger were talking recently about their desire to stretch the field more and throw the ball down the field. The offense was set up for Plummer, who doesn't have near the arm strength of Cutler, so it was a bunch of underneath and medium length routes. I expect the Broncos to open it up and stretch the field more, which will benefit Walker especially.
-OZ-
Footballguy
any time. Are you counting threads with Walker in the title, or those dynasty threads where more is discussed? Anyway, just seems your post has been done better by H.K. before.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Even with a 25% increase from his Cutler numbers, Walker will disappoint if you draft him as a top10 WR.We're talking about a substantial increase in production to justify a top 10 ranking.
Isn't Fitzgerald missing from this list? He essentially had the same year last year as the year before, when he got 1,400 and 10 TDs - except last year he missed three games. Assuming he plays sixteen, I can't see how he's held out of the top eight.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
YES... More bombs is exactly what we'll see, only question is how much Shanny will open up the playbook. If he feels Cutler is ready Walker is the big winner the way I see it.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Yes I would definitely put him into that tight grouping too. Those were just on the fly rankings looking at the top finishers from last year.Because all of these guys are likely going to finish with similar stats, I'll be looking at:1. Who has the potential to move into the top 5 and what is the liklihood of that happening?2. Who has the potential to bust and what is the liklihood of that happening?3. Schedule and in particular the playoff schedule.For Walker I think there is little chance of a top 5 finish with moderate bust potential. I haven't looked at schedule yet. While it doesn't matter much now, whether he gets ranked #7 or #10 will become a big decision when he is staring you in the face in Rd 3.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I am not sure I agree with this but I didn't get to see Cutler play much so this is based solely on game strategy. Just because Denver CAN air it out more doesn't necessarily mean they will or should.They should still have a good defense. Their running game might actually be better with Henry on board. Marshall looks like a great prospect and they have weapons at TE so there should be lots of options in the passing game.They shouldn't be playing from behind much, so if they end up controlling a lot of games they might not air it out with higher risk deep passes.
T Man
Footballguy
I wouldn't think the Broncos would have to move all the way up to 2 to get AD. I thought they were looking to get CJ, but IMHO, while CJ is worth the 2 and could help the Broncos, I would think that a more reasonable move would be to move up to the 5-10 to get some of the DL. THis is especially true given the $$$ they have given to Walker to be the #1.LHUCKS said:
Denver doesn't have the ammo to move up to #2, and with Henry there is no reason for them to go after AD.Johnson I can see somewhat, but IMO it's a bunch of hot air. I wouldn't be suprised though to see Denver move up, but to target a defensive player.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Couldn't the fact Cutler was a backup until December and most likely had a lot more reps with Marshall(another backup)in practice have a big impact on the fact he felt more comfortable with Marshall last year?IMO too much is being read into just 5 games started by Cutler last season. We can't be sure what his tendencies are yet. He may have a much better rapport with Walker after working the entire offseason as the #1 QB.LHUCKS said:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I agree it's impossible to be definitive about the situation given the data set is limited. I'm not saying he will underperform his ADP, I'm just saying there's a substantial risk that he will.Too risky for my blood at WR#10.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
For the record, I didn't use that thread because it appeared it was a trade advice thread, the likes of which I don't like to encourage.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I'm not going to rehash every point I made in the value thread but will hit the highlights...
1. Walker's ADP is around 16.
2. Walker defied odds that no one else ever has to be productive last year...changing teams, injury return, rookie QB.
3. Culter didn't work with Walker in the pre-season, Walker was rested.
Walker is a value play.
1. Walker's ADP is around 16.
2. Walker defied odds that no one else ever has to be productive last year...changing teams, injury return, rookie QB.
3. Culter didn't work with Walker in the pre-season, Walker was rested.
Walker is a value play.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
One of the major knocks on Plummer was the limitations he forced on the playbook, Shanny has wanted to open it up for years. Now it looks like he finally can...The Duff Man said:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I see him ranked around 10 on a lot of lists...I would probably bite on him at WR#16 for the upside in leagues where I believe I can find value at WR in the middle rounds...which is most leagues.
JH56
Footballguy
Holt was pretty useless after week5 sans two games. He is still ranked pretty highWalker is and will be in 2007 a top 10 WR barring injury.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I think he'll improve, but enough to increase Walkers reception/yardage total by 50%...I'm not so sure. (based on five game stretch)
SSOG
Moderator
I don't think Cutler has to improve to increase Walker's numbers, I think Shanahan has to change the playcalling.I agree that Walker is a gamble. For the last two seasons, Denver has been especially reliant on its WRs as its passing offense has shifted dramatically away from its TEs and RBs. At the end of last season, when Cutler took over, Denver's passing offense took a dramatic shift and began highlighting its TEs and RBs again. It remains to be seen whether this was a short-term aberration designed to ease Cutler's transition, or whether it marked a return to Denver's offensive roots. That's the gamble- not whether Cutler will improve a ton or not, but whether Shanahan will continue featuring his WRs over his TEs and RBs.Personally, I believe that Shanahan knows what he has in Walker and will feature him extensively. There is a lot of talk in Denver about adding a lot of emphasis to the deep ball. Patrick Ramsey was signed despite the fact that he lacks the mobility typically required in the Denver System, in large part because he had the best arm of any QB on the market, which means when Cutler went down he would be best equipped to use the deep passes that are supposedly going to be emphasized next season. In that respect, Denver is certainly walking the walk rather than just talking the talk- they don't just SAY they're going to emphasize the WRs, but they actually go out and acquire the personnel that proves they mean it.On the other hand, Graham is dramatically underrated as a passcatcher, and Scheffler is continuing to emerge. It would be naive to assume that Denver's offense isn't going to shift towards the TEs at least a little bit.My personal belief is that the WR's share of the targets in Denver is going to decrease, but their value per target is going to increase, resulting in a pretty average season from Denver's WR1 when all is said and done. I'm expecting maybe 1100-1200 yards and 6-8 TDs from Walker next year, although I reserve the right to alter those estimates as we start getting closer to training camps.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
As I start to stick my nose in this your yardage numbers are above where I'd set his median at. TDs I have at 8.
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dparker713
Footballguy
There is no need for Cutler to improve at all for Walker to see a significant increase in his output. Cutler put up plenty of production to allow for Walker to post top 10 or even top 5 numbers. Walker just did not receive the lion's share of those numbers. A simple redistribution would be enough. Unless you think Walker will no longer be the number 1 receiver in Denver, than the small sample of 5 games and his relatively poor showing in them is fairly unconvincing evidence of a significant drop off. His anomolous running stats and a regression in either the team and/or Cutler would be much better arguments to make.
redman
Footballguy
Amortized over a 16-game season, Walker's numbers from the last 5 games would be 58/736/6.
If you remove Cutler's first NFL start from the mix, his last four games amortization looks like 64/852/8.
I agree that these aren't elite numbers, but they aren't a disaster either. What's also very attractive to me is that the yards per catch, which is on one side or the other of 13 depending upon whether you use the four or five game amortization, has a lot of room for improvement implying that Cutler needs only to learn how to find Walker downfield. That should come with time.
If you remove Cutler's first NFL start from the mix, his last four games amortization looks like 64/852/8.
I agree that these aren't elite numbers, but they aren't a disaster either. What's also very attractive to me is that the yards per catch, which is on one side or the other of 13 depending upon whether you use the four or five game amortization, has a lot of room for improvement implying that Cutler needs only to learn how to find Walker downfield. That should come with time.
SSOG
Moderator
If you want some justification... here are Rod Smith's yardage totals for every season between 1997 and 2005.118012221020 over 15 games (pro-rates to 1088)16021343 over 15 games (pro-rates to 1433)1027845 over 15 games (pro-rates to 901)11441105Three times, he finished under 1100 yards (two of them just barely). I love that sample of numbers, because it really represents the entire spectrum of situations. Rod Smith put up great numbers with a HoF QB, All-world Running game, and 2 All-Pro targets (1998). Rod Smith put up great numbers with a mediocre QB, moderately disasterous running game, and no other targets worth mentioning (2001). Rod Smith put up great numbers with a first-year starter at QB and RB and only one other target worth mentioning (1999). Rod Smith put up great numbers with a mediocre QB, two other viable targets at WR, a studly target at TE, and a studly running game (2002). Basically, everything in Denver changed except for one thing- Rod Smith put up great numbers.Basically, we have evidence that, no matter what happens in Denver, it's a pretty safe assumption that this system will get the ball to its #1 WR. Whether you think Brandon Marshall or Rod Smith will become studly and pair with Walker in a Smith/McCaffrey type tandem, or you think that Brandon Marshall and Rod Smith will both be good and pair with Walker in a Smith/McCaffrey/Lelie type trio, or you think that Brandon Marshall and Rod Smith will both suck leaving Walker as the only viable receiving option, there is a precedent for Walker putting up good yardage. Whether you think that Scheffler is the second coming of Shannon Sharpe, or you think that he's the second coming of Jeb Putzier, or you think he's the second coming of Byron Chamberlain, there is precedent for Walker putting up good yardage numbers. Whether you think Cutler is the next John Elway, or the next Jake Plummer, or the next Brian Griese, there is precedent for Walker putting up good numbers. In fact, the only time Rod Smith DIDN'T put up good numbers was when Danny Kanell was at the helm (pro-rate his Plummer-only 2003 numbers and he'd have 1000 yards that year). So unless you think Cutler will be the next Danny Kanell, I think it's a safe bet that Javon Walker is going to get his yards.Now, the big question of course is "Is Javon Walker as good as Rod Smith was in his prime?". Personally, I think Javon Walker is BETTER. He may not work as hard, he may not be the team leader, but from a physical talent standpoint, Javon Walker is more impressive than Rod Smith in his prime. I have no problem projecting similar production out of Walker as we saw out of Smith. That's why I'm currently projecting at 1100 to 1200 yards, and I also believe that if he's going to finish outside of that range (barring injury, of course), it's more likely that he goes over than under.
I don't know who else you expect to finish near the top-10, but I don't think either Rod Smith or Brandon Marshall have enough in them to make it that high. Rod Smith is too old, and Brandon Marshall is too young and unproven.I think a better comparison than Griese/Smith/McCaffrey would be Griese/Smith/McCaffrey/Lelie. The presence of Rod Smith will hurt Brandon Marshall's numbers, and the presence of Brandon Marshall will hurt Rod Smith's numbers.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Great post SSOG. Extremely insightful.
In a redraft Javon Walker will come after the Steve Smiths, Harrisons, Holts and may get equal or better fantasy production than anyone of those guys.
In a redraft Javon Walker will come after the Steve Smiths, Harrisons, Holts and may get equal or better fantasy production than anyone of those guys.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
and exactly why I have Walker as undervalued at his current ADP. Of course I bought into your Ron Dayne post last year....
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I believe using Rod Smith's numbers as a baseline for your projections is a risky proposition...Rod was playing with different QBs.
I think it really comes down to how much Cutler improves and if Cutler is going to give him a higher percentage of the balls. I'm not convinced either will happen to the degree it would take to justify Walker as a top 10 WR.
Here's who I have ranked ahead of Walker(without detailed analysis)
Smith
Fitz
Boldin
Harrison
Wayne
C. Johnson
Holt
T.O.
ROY
Driver(unless Moss comes over)
A. Johnson
Housh
Colston
D-Jax
about the same tier I have: Ward, Coles, B. Edwards
I think it really comes down to how much Cutler improves and if Cutler is going to give him a higher percentage of the balls. I'm not convinced either will happen to the degree it would take to justify Walker as a top 10 WR.
Here's who I have ranked ahead of Walker(without detailed analysis)
Smith
Fitz
Boldin
Harrison
Wayne
C. Johnson
Holt
T.O.
ROY
Driver(unless Moss comes over)
A. Johnson
Housh
Colston
D-Jax
about the same tier I have: Ward, Coles, B. Edwards
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cmv5
Footballguy
Just curious, not nitpicking. Where do you see Lee Evans? I personally would have to throw his name up here on this list.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
forgot him...he's on the first list
SSOG
Moderator
I'm assuming you mentioned that because you wanted to thank me, right? Let me guess, Ron Dayne's 21.86 points per game from weeks 14-16 won you the league championship?and exactly why I have Walker as undervalued at his current ADP. Of course I bought into your Ron Dayne post last year....
Yes, Rod Smith was playing with different QBs. Five different QBs (Elway, Brister, Griese, Frerotte, Plummer), to be exact. That's how many QBs threw to Smith for at least 6 consecutive games during the stretch I highlighted. I think Rod Smith demonstrated very nicely that it doesn't matter who the QB is in Denver, the WR1 is going to get his.I agree that it comes down to whether Cutler is going to get him a higher percentage of the balls. The thing is, Shanahan *LOVES* Walker. He knows what a special talent Walker is, and he has said before that it is a special point of emphasis to get the ball into Walker's hands. Shanny's also been talking about putting extra emphasis on the deep ball (which means Walker). He's not just talking the talk, either- Shanny is definitely walking the walk. Last season, Walker got 9 rushing attempts, demonstrating Shanny's determination to get the ball in his hands by any means necessary. Shanahan also signed Patrick Ramsey, an immobile QB traditionally ill suited to Denver's bootleg scheme. This came despite the fact that Denver pushed really hard last season to get Jeff Garcia (who DOES fit very well with Denver's bootleg passing offense). The only conclusion I can draw is that this season Denver might be emphasising the deep ball (which Ramsey can do and Garcia cannot) over the bootleg (which Garcia can do and Ramsey cannot)- and remember, deep ball means Walker, since Brandon Marshall is more of a yards-after-the-catch type receiver.Javon Walker is the most talented player on the offense, and all signs indicate that he's going to be the focal point of the offense next year. On your list, I have him ranked higher than Colston (sophomore slump), A.Johnson, Housh, Driver, Roy, and possibly T.O. (I haven't even begun to try to decipher the mess that is Dallas). He's right in the WR10-WR12 range for me.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Walker will be 2 years removed from his ACL and Cutler will be more comfortable this season. With the talent of Walker and Cutler I see a match made in heaven very soon. Walker is a better WR than a lot of guys on your list and I happen to be very high on Cutler. I guarantee you that Walker will be the focal point in the passing game next season. I'm pretty confident in a top 12 finish, and probably top 10.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Between your Dayne pimping and Levin worshipping Bell and Bush, I dominated the toilet bowl.Serious though, I want to commend you on your in-depth analysis....regardless of the outcome. I see Walker as an elite talent and I think Lhucks is missing the boat their. I think we're talking TO and Smith type talent that produce regardless of QB. The numbers he put up last year floored me as I was a huge detractor. He beat the ACL history and the changing teams history. No one else has done that before. I have him pegged around WR 5-6 next year and will target him WR13 or later in every draft this year.SSOG said:I'm assuming you mentioned that because you wanted to thank me, right? Let me guess, Ron Dayne's 21.86 points per game from weeks 14-16 won you the league championship?
