Jay Cutler predictions (1 Viewer)

[PDX Pain]

Under Mike Martz, in 2006, Jon Kitna was the 6th ranked QB in my fantasy league. 4,208 yrds, 21 TD's, 22 INT's. Nice yardage, good TD's, horrible INT's. But Kitna isn't half as talented as Cutler. I think, under Martz, Cutler can be a top 5 QB in the league, if not higher. Cutler is a very talented player. Additionally, did you see what he did over the course of the last two games last season? 8 TD's, and 1 INT. In two games. Sick. 3 of those 8 TD's went to Aromashodu. That's for a different thread, though.

My point being - I believe Cutler to be a top 5 QB talent in the NFL. Shouldn't he live up to it with Martz? Considering what Martz did with Jon Kitna?

That means that I think Cutler has the potential to out perform (in my league) Schaub or Romo, or Brady or Rivers, or Eli this season. Two of those 5 guys are the only ones that could keep J-Cut out of the top 5 assuming Rodgers, Brees and Peyton are in the top 3 (this also assumes that Big Ben won't make the top 10, nor will Favre)

Out of the question? I don't think so.....

Interested to see if I'm crazy with this one. Feel free to tell me if I am. But give me reasons....

 

[Kowskull]

I have been quietly adding him to my dynasty teams I dont believe he is top 5 but top 10 no problem i can see a 4000yd 24td 16int type year

 

[nlgb1]

i guess having a big arm makes you a great qb talent nowadays

 

[gandalas]

i guess having a big arm makes you a great qb talent nowadays

No, I would say that having a 4500 yard, 25 TD season 2 years ago makes you a great talent, when the gameplan is structured around passing, as Martz' is sure to be. Even in his somewhat disaster of a season last year, he still had 27 TD (and 26 INT, hence the disaster). With another year with his receivers, and a full offseason with his favorite receiver, D.A, I definitely expect big things from him this year. I am counting on a top-10 season for sure, and top-5 is not out of the realm of possibility, although I do not see it as a given.

 

[Max Power]

I am probably one of the biggest Martz haters on this board. I'm also a diehard bears fan.

While a Martz offense can put up huge numbers, it also sets the team's defense up for total failure.

I'm not overly impressed with the Bears WRs. I think Hester and Knox will be good in the slot, but there is no go to WR on this team. Roy williams and a 35 year old Issac Bruce are better than anything the bears are going to put out there this year.

If the bears don't make the playoffs, Lovie is as good as gone and Martz is likely out the door with him.

In a redraft league, I would start looking at Cutler somewhere in the 8-10 range and expect him to finish in that range as well. In dynasty I would call him a hold right now. I think his value is inflated due to the martz factor, but as I stated before, Martz's stay in Chicago will not be a long term thing.

 

[moleculo]

Under Mike Martz, in 2006, Jon Kitna was the 6th ranked QB in my fantasy league. 4,208 yrds, 21 TD's, 22 INT's. Nice yardage, good TD's, horrible INT's. But Kitna isn't half as talented as Cutler. I think, under Martz, Cutler can be a top 5 QB in the league, if not higher. Cutler is a very talented player. Additionally, did you see what he did over the course of the last two games last season? 8 TD's, and 1 INT. In two games. Sick. 3 of those 8 TD's went to Aromashodu. That's for a different thread, though.

My point being - I believe Cutler to be a top 5 QB talent in the NFL. Shouldn't he live up to it with Martz? Considering what Martz did with Jon Kitna?

That means that I think Cutler has the potential to out perform (in my league) Schaub or Romo, or Brady or Rivers, or Eli this season. Two of those 5 guys are the only ones that could keep J-Cut out of the top 5 assuming Rodgers, Brees and Peyton are in the top 3 (this also assumes that Big Ben won't make the top 10, nor will Favre)

Out of the question? I don't think so.....

Interested to see if I'm crazy with this one. Feel free to tell me if I am. But give me reasons....

do you think Chicago will throw the ball almost 2x as often as they run? That's what Martz did in Det in 2006.I don't think that would be a recipe for success, given the talent Chicago has amassed @ WR, the fact that they play outdoors in the "Windy City", and the fact that their D has aspirations to be in top 20.

 

[David Yudkin]

I have been as big an advocate for Martz QBs as there's been. But bear in mind that Kitna's production from a few years ago would have barely ranked in the Top 15 last year. A lot of QBs have been putting up big numbers of late, so it's clear the bar has been raised to rank in the Top 5 or Top 10.

I'm also leary that Martz has had much greater success inside than outside. His system did not anywhere near the impact in his season in San Francisco.

 

[Chase Stuart]

His system did not anywhere near the impact in his season in San Francisco.

That's half-true; the numbers weren't great but he also made significant improvements there. San Francisco passed for 1,000 more yards in Martz' first season than in the prior year; the cupboard was so bare in SF, that Martz' big impact wasn't really noticed except on a relative basis.Martz has been an unbelievable sucess when it comes to fantasy QBs -- that's what I wrote about in my Jay Cutler player point: http://footballguys.com/10stuart_players_jaycutler.php

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Cutler went for 3666/27 passing and 172/1 rushing last year on a new team with young WRs in a new system.

Another year with the same players? That is a plus.

Young WRs getting another year of seasoning? Another plus.

Mad Mike Martz coming to town? BIG plus for the passing game.

Cutler's numbers from last year are pretty much his floor. I would give an over under of 4000 yards and 26 TDs, with about the same rushing totals as last year. But his upside us in the neighborhood of 4600 yards 32 TDs...

He could explode into the top 5, but as David pointed out, there are a lot of very good fantasy QBs.

Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Schaub, Romo, Brady, Rivers... Cutler has to jump 3 of them, and there is still Favre, an improved fantasy Eli, McNabb, Kolb, Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Ryan in the mix... plenty of quality for fantasy purposes.

 

[RookieBlitz]

Mike Clay of Fantasy Depth Chart wrote a case-study on Mike Martz/Jay Cutler back in March

http://www.fantasydc.com/?p=2599 Mike Martz: The Offense

If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend that you check it out.

Basically, he concludes that Jay Cutler will post similar stats as he had in the past with a slight decrease in interceptions and a slight increase in completion percentage

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

do you think Chicago will throw the ball almost 2x as often as they run? That's what Martz did in Det in 2006.

The Cutler-led Bears threw the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps (4% were sacks, 38% runs), which was good enough to place them as the 4th pass-heaviest team in the NFL behind only Arizona, Seattle, and Indianapolis. I took the time to break down the boxscore of every game since 1999 where Martz was a team’s Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. His average Pass:Run:Sack ratio over those 8,757 plays was 58 % pass, 37% run, 5 % sack.from that mike clay link above me.

edit: 2008 denver was probably at least that.

more edits: from the linked mike clay article, he threw the ball a little over 50% in SF.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Guess who led the league in pass attempts in 2009?

Not "pass happy" teams like the Colts, Cardinals, or Texans but the Seattle Seahawks with 609.

(Completion percentage wasn't terrible either. At 61% they were right in the middle.)

So maybe we should take attempts off the table and instead talk about

1. Whether Cutler can learn to work a timing-based system instead of being a gunslinger

2. Whether these WRs can progress enough to be serious threats as opposed to promising talents

3. Whether the entire team can absorb and perfect the new offense (which I understand to be complicated)

Unfortunately, we may have to wait for that third preseason game to find out . . . .

 

[Chase Stuart]

Mike Clay of Fantasy Depth Chart wrote a case-study on Mike Martz/Jay Cutler back in March

http://www.fantasydc.com/?p=2599 Mike Martz: The Offense

If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend that you check it out.

Basically, he concludes that Jay Cutler will post similar stats as he had in the past with a slight decrease in interceptions and a slight increase in completion percentage

That all being said, I don’t see Mike Martz’s arrival affecting Cutler’s numbers too much. Cutler is better than Kitna and possibly Bulger in his prime, but is not Kurt Warner in his prime. When all is said in done, Cutler’s career marks should be pretty good indicators for what to expect under Martz. The only adjustments I’d make are a 1-2% boost in Completion% and a 0.5% adjustment to the bad to account for the high 2009 rate (4.7%) and the recurring high INT% for Martz quarterbacks.

The historical context is fine, but I think Clay was way too broad at the end here. Cutler's career average is comprised of the following elements:

8% of Cutler as a rookie

31% of Cutler as a new starter in Chicago

26% of Cutler as a 24-year-old, 2nd year player

35% of Cutler as a 25-year-old, 3rd year player

Now, would you expect a 27-year-old QB in his second season with a new team to be an amalgamation of how he played as a rookie, how he played in his first season as starter, and how he played at 24 and 25 years of age?

Being a rookie and being a new starter depress most quarterbacks numbers, and most QBs are better at age 27 than at age 25. So when I look at Jay Cutler's career, I'd expect -- in a vacuum -- his 2010 season to be better than every other season of his career. Take Jay Cutler out of the equation, and pretend we throw in someone like Jake Locker. If I tell you here is how his career path would progress, in which season -- #1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 -- would you project the best numbers?

1) Was drafted in Year N, and played as a 23-year-old rookie

2) Played in Year N+1 as a 24-year-old starter

3) Played in Year N+2 as a 25-year-old starter

4) Switched teams in Year N+3, and started for a new team at the age of 26;

5) Played for the same team again in Year N+4 as a 27-year-old starter

I certainly would pick #5; maybe that's just me, though. Looking at career averages for Cutler doesn't seem particularly wise to me.

Mike Martz is a huge boon to the passing game. And Cutler is entering his prime. I see a lot to like.

 

[Catbird]

I think the Mike Clay article has great stats but draws unsupported conclusions. The QB situation in SF was completely different. O'Sullivan <<<<< Cutler (although the WRs were probably comperable as groups). He also had an elite Runner in Gore, which he won't in CHI (and in STL he had Faulk). The conclusion that because Cutler last year threw around 58% of the time and Martz has thrown 58% of the time, that will be the figure fails to reflect that with good QBs and less than .500 records (which I would say is almost a given) Martz throws at about 62% (even with Kitna). With the 'advantage' of playing from behind late and with 4 fast, capable (if not studly) WRs to run it (remember this system made Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald fantasy household names) I would say the numbers and situation suggest at least a 62+% passing ratio, and with the consistent Martz completion % increase, a correspondingly much higher passing yardage total than the '09 Bears. I just think the numbers here tell a different story than Clay reads from them. Add Cutler's better comfort in Chicago, familiarity with the WRs and Taylor's blocking ability - although that won't be enough to offset the hammering Cutler will be taking - and I think you have to project a healthy Cutler at the positive side of what Lott's Finger suggests. You just also have to take into account that hammering as significant downside.

 

[sho nuff]

a ton of sacks?

Id expect close to last year's numbers and would guess maybe fewer INTs.

But their line is still a big question mark and Martz's QBs get sacked a lot.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I honestly think this is a big year for Jay Cutler.

He either steps up his game a lot....or he becomes a borderline top 10 QB.

I am in the regard that he steps up his game.

-He had 8 more INT's last season than in any other season(college, NFL) in his career....those will go down.

-His YPA was much lower than in previous seasons.

-The skill positions players will be more experienced and at least on more of the same page with Cutler.

-The defense will be much better providing more opportunities and better field position.

-Martz will help Cutler and the offense....does everyone forget how poor of a play caller Ron Turner was for so many years???

 

[TS Garp]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

 

[finito]

I predict several tantrums from Cutler, but overall his numbers will look pretty good by year's end.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

 

[BigGDan]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Oh come on now. I think those are fair perceptions of Jay so far.

 

[TS Garp]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Seriously? Ask Philip Rivers, for one.

 

[NeverEnough]

45/17

On a serous note, 35/22

 

[two_dollars]

Mike Martz is to QB's what Cam Cameron is to RB's.

 

[David Yudkin]

Mike Martz is to QB's what Cam Cameron is to RB's.

On several occasions, Martz QBs have improved their total numbers for no other reason than increasing their passing attempts by a large margin. Chicago already had a lot more passing attempts vs rushing attempts last year. I would not expect the same impact on Cutler as he may have had on others in the past.

 

[KellysHeroes]

don't forget to add in about 70 sacks and 70 hurries

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

There's a big downside to the Cutler/Martz marriage too, Cooley's Angels hints at it when he asks:

Whether Cutler can learn to work a timing-based system instead of being a gunslinger

Let's not forget that Ron Jaworski analyzed Cutler's INTs last year and concluded that all but three were Cutler's fault and Cutler's fault alone. Just to throw some ice on the Aromashodu love going around, three of his INTs were on throws to him, even though Aromashodu only had significant playing time in four games - which is a sign that (as Ive been saying all offseason) if Cutler is still zeroing in on Aromashodu, chances are it means that he's not running the offense true to form, and it will probably be part of another crash and burn season.Cutler has already had the benefit of playing in pass-happy offenses, so he doesn't have as much upside as people think in the Martz offense. He has taken down Mike Shanahan and Ron Turner so far with his failures, and Martz could be next. If Cutler doesn't reinvent himself as a disciplined QB who relies on the game plan and play design more than his talent to defeat offenses this year, his reputation as a coach killer will be sealed, and the Bears may well look to QB when they finally get back in the first round next year. So while Cutler could blossom and put up great fantasy numbers under Martz, this could also be the last offseason that we think of him as a talented young QB with a possibly bright future.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Oh come on now. I think those are fair perceptions of Jay so far.

What is the proof?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Watching the Bears last year? Cutler's body language after interceptions? The way he got himself traded out of Denver? The fact that the Bears record was worse with him at the helm than it was with Orton, and the Broncos wasn't?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Seriously? Ask Philip Rivers, for one.

Weird you mention that b/c we have a tee time together this morning and it didn't cross my mind to ask him about Cutler.

If anything, I think that reveals more about Rivers than it did about Cutler.

You think he is easily rattled....yet when that questionable fumble was called an incomplete pass late in the SD game. He came back with a TD pass to Royal tight in coverage.....and then a 2 pt conversion to Royal to seal the win.....but I'm sure none of this is blinding your view of Cutler.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

What is the proof (of Cutler's bad attitude)?

How about this:

Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen said in a letter to season ticket holders Saturday that the organization had no choice but to trade Jay Cutler over his insubordination.Bowlen preached a message of team unity in the e-mail, reiterating that he and new coach Josh McDaniels had reached out many times to Cutler, who didn\'t respond to their overtures.Bowlen, who remained largely silent during the six-week rift that ended with Thursday\'s blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears, wrote that anybody who puts himself above the team gets a one-way ticket out of town.\"Understand this: it remains about team,\" Bowlen wrote. \"Our franchise has gone to the Super Bowl six times, with three different coaches and with many different players. It has never been about one player, and it never will be. Coach McDaniels shares this vision, and everyone in the organization — players, coaches and staff — must understand and accept this unconditionally. If anyone does not, that person will not be a part of this franchise.\"Cutler became disenchanted in Denver when he learned the team had talked about trading him for New England Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel six weeks ago.He requested a trade last month after a face-to-face meeting with McDaniels failed to clear the air. The Broncos initially balked.Cutler ignored calls and texts from McDaniels and Bowlen, however, and the owner reached his breaking point Tuesday and told McDaniels and general manager Brian Xanders to try to trade Cutler.

or this:

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler long has been criticized for a demeanor that more often than not suggests that he isn\'t sufficiently invested emotionally in the results of his work product.Last night, he seemed to take it to a new level.Sure, he seemed to whine a little bit after one of his interceptions (the fourth, I think) looked possibly to have been the product of pass interference. But we\'ll never be able to shed the image of Cutler after one of his blunders removing his helmet and scratching his head with a look on his face projecting roughly the same level of concern that Jerry Seinfeld routinely expressed upon uttering, \"That\'s a shame.\"There\'s a fine line between cool and complacent. Cutler seemed to have been on the wrong side of it last night.Even after the game, he didn\'t seem to care. Speaking with Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports, Cutler \"nearly laughed\" when he said the words \"five interceptions.\"\"Fire away,\" Cutler told Silver before boarding the team bus. \"Feel free to do your job and give me the public ripping I have coming.\"Cool, or complacent?We\'re not saying that Cutler should rant and/or rave or piss and/or moan like some of the other more demonstrative quarterbacks we\'ve all seen over the years. But football is an emotional game, and the quarterback needs to at times seem like he gives a crap.Cutler rarely if ever has done that.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Watching the Bears last year? Cutler's body language after interceptions? The way he got himself traded out of Denver? The fact that the Bears record was worse with him at the helm than it was with Orton, and the Broncos wasn't?

I wouldn't be happy if I threw an interception...would you? Or after my WR's stop on routes/fall down/change direction that cause interceptions(you can bring up Jaws if you want....I know more than 3 of them were the receivers fault).

Lets take the GB game....it wasn't a good game for Jay. He threw 4 INT's in the game....yet late in the game he drove the team down for the winning score...then let the defense give up the winning score. But he probably lead them down to score b/c he is rattled easily.....or someone was in his head.

Think about it....national TV....against the Bears biggest rival....on the road....lead the team back from being down for the go ahead score with under 4 minutes left in the ball game. Sounds like the QB I want on my team.

Got himself out of Denver....I would too. Then when you compare Cutler wanting out, with Marshall wanting out...and now McDaniels picking Tebow in the first...his judgment of personnel is questionable.

The Bears record had more to do with losing their captain and arguably best player in the first half of the first game for the entire season than Jay Cutler.

The Broncos wasn't....yet they draft Tebow in the first round gives encouragement to Orton moving forward...

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

What is the proof (of Cutler's bad attitude)?

How about this:

Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen said in a letter to season ticket holders Saturday that the organization had no choice but to trade Jay Cutler over his insubordination.Bowlen preached a message of team unity in the e-mail, reiterating that he and new coach Josh McDaniels had reached out many times to Cutler, who didn\'t respond to their overtures.Bowlen, who remained largely silent during the six-week rift that ended with Thursday\'s blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears, wrote that anybody who puts himself above the team gets a one-way ticket out of town.\"Understand this: it remains about team,\" Bowlen wrote. \"Our franchise has gone to the Super Bowl six times, with three different coaches and with many different players. It has never been about one player, and it never will be. Coach McDaniels shares this vision, and everyone in the organization — players, coaches and staff — must understand and accept this unconditionally. If anyone does not, that person will not be a part of this franchise.\"Cutler became disenchanted in Denver when he learned the team had talked about trading him for New England Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel six weeks ago.He requested a trade last month after a face-to-face meeting with McDaniels failed to clear the air. The Broncos initially balked.Cutler ignored calls and texts from McDaniels and Bowlen, however, and the owner reached his breaking point Tuesday and told McDaniels and general manager Brian Xanders to try to trade Cutler.

or this:

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler long has been criticized for a demeanor that more often than not suggests that he isn\'t sufficiently invested emotionally in the results of his work product.Last night, he seemed to take it to a new level.Sure, he seemed to whine a little bit after one of his interceptions (the fourth, I think) looked possibly to have been the product of pass interference. But we\'ll never be able to shed the image of Cutler after one of his blunders removing his helmet and scratching his head with a look on his face projecting roughly the same level of concern that Jerry Seinfeld routinely expressed upon uttering, \"That\'s a shame.\"There\'s a fine line between cool and complacent. Cutler seemed to have been on the wrong side of it last night.Even after the game, he didn\'t seem to care. Speaking with Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports, Cutler \"nearly laughed\" when he said the words \"five interceptions.\"\"Fire away,\" Cutler told Silver before boarding the team bus. \"Feel free to do your job and give me the public ripping I have coming.\"Cool, or complacent?We\'re not saying that Cutler should rant and/or rave or piss and/or moan like some of the other more demonstrative quarterbacks we\'ve all seen over the years. But football is an emotional game, and the quarterback needs to at times seem like he gives a crap.Cutler rarely if ever has done that.

What would you think Bowlen would say? Jay is an amazing player and I can't believe our coach wanted to bring in another QB? Bloom your better than this, you know the owner has to say this after the situation. He is biased.Then yall complain about his attitude....yet in the second article....it looks like he is trying to shake off the interception. So which is it? You want him to be down and upset that he threw a pick....or brush it off?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

There's a big downside to the Cutler/Martz marriage too, Cooley's Angels hints at it when he asks:

Whether Cutler can learn to work a timing-based system instead of being a gunslinger

Let's not forget that Ron Jaworski analyzed Cutler's INTs last year and concluded that all but three were Cutler's fault and Cutler's fault alone.

Off the top of my head 1) knox stopped running a slant route in week one, 2)Hester stopped running a crossing pattern vs the 49ers, and 3) Hester fell down on an out vs the 49ers I think.

Just to throw some ice on the Aromashodu love going around, three of his INTs were on throws to him, even though Aromashodu only had significant playing time in four games - which is a sign that (as Ive been saying all offseason) if Cutler is still zeroing in on Aromashodu, chances are it means that he's not running the offense true to form, and it will probably be part of another crash and burn season.

Cutler has already had the benefit of playing in pass-happy offenses, so he doesn't have as much upside as people think in the Martz offense. He has taken down Mike Shanahan and Ron Turner so far with his failures, and Martz could be next.

He kicked Shanny out of town? Going to the pro bowl....so it was his fault? I'm pretty sure Shanny's defense continually not being average was his failure at the end in Denver.

The Ron Turner thing is funny too. Turner was perhaps one of the worst OC's in the NFL. He couldn't be successful at Illinois, then road an earlier successful stint as a coordinator with the Bears to another job in chicago. Even during the Super Bowl run they were 15th in the NFL in offensive yardage....hardly a great offense.

If Cutler doesn't reinvent himself as a disciplined QB who relies on the game plan and play design more than his talent to defeat offenses this year, his reputation as a coach killer will be sealed, and the Bears may well look to QB when they finally get back in the first round next year.

So while Cutler could blossom and put up great fantasy numbers under Martz, this could also be the last offseason that we think of him as a talented young QB with a possibly bright future.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I wouldn't be happy if I threw an interception...would you? Or after my WR's stop on routes/fall down/change direction that cause interceptions(you can bring up Jaws if you want....I know more than 3 of them were the receivers fault).

yeah, I'll bear that in mind as I compare his 26 picks to other qb's around the league, all of whom are solely responsible for every one of their picks.funny how orton had less than half that total with the bears, but maybe the groundskeeper hates cutler and greased the field, or maybe the wr's are conspiring against him..........hmmmm.....of course, orton threw 6 fewer picks in denver, too......better add some more people in that conspiracy to make cutler look like an idiot.2 words:cutlersux

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I would be looking to sell Cutler now to someone who thinks the Martz offense is going to propel Cutler into the elite. I would target a move like Cutler for Eli and something. Their is a perceived value difference between the two, but I think Eli will be as good or better than Cutler.

 

[dehaven123]

Martz QB's

Not sure if this means anything in NFL terms, but it may bode well for the Chi QB in FF.

1999 325 499 65.1 4353 41

2000 235 347 67.7 3429 21

145 240 60.4 2063 16

2001 375 546 68.7 4830 36

2002 144 220 65.5 1431 3

138 214 64.5 1826 14

124 195 63.6 1216 7

2003 336 532 63.2 3845 22

2004 321 485 66.2 3964 21

2005 192 287 66.9 2297 14

124 177 70.1 1277 5

76 135 56.3 777 4

2006 372 596 62.4 4208 21

2007 355 561 63.3 4068 18

2008 181 288 62.8 2046 13

128 220 58.2 1678 8

Now I'm leaving a few of the stats out in those QB numbers, but that's the meat of it. Also, a few of those QB's are more accomplished than others, so that needs to be considered as well. Some of those yrs are better than others, but overall not too shabby. Cant be all bad for Cutler, right?

 

[two_dollars]

What is the proof (of Cutler's bad attitude)?

How about this:

Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen said in a letter to season ticket holders Saturday that the organization had no choice but to trade Jay Cutler over his insubordination.Bowlen preached a message of team unity in the e-mail, reiterating that he and new coach Josh McDaniels had reached out many times to Cutler, who didn\'t respond to their overtures.Bowlen, who remained largely silent during the six-week rift that ended with Thursday\'s blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears, wrote that anybody who puts himself above the team gets a one-way ticket out of town.\"Understand this: it remains about team,\" Bowlen wrote. \"Our franchise has gone to the Super Bowl six times, with three different coaches and with many different players. It has never been about one player, and it never will be. Coach McDaniels shares this vision, and everyone in the organization — players, coaches and staff — must understand and accept this unconditionally. If anyone does not, that person will not be a part of this franchise.\"Cutler became disenchanted in Denver when he learned the team had talked about trading him for New England Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel six weeks ago.He requested a trade last month after a face-to-face meeting with McDaniels failed to clear the air. The Broncos initially balked.Cutler ignored calls and texts from McDaniels and Bowlen, however, and the owner reached his breaking point Tuesday and told McDaniels and general manager Brian Xanders to try to trade Cutler.

or this:

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler long has been criticized for a demeanor that more often than not suggests that he isn\'t sufficiently invested emotionally in the results of his work product.Last night, he seemed to take it to a new level.Sure, he seemed to whine a little bit after one of his interceptions (the fourth, I think) looked possibly to have been the product of pass interference. But we\'ll never be able to shed the image of Cutler after one of his blunders removing his helmet and scratching his head with a look on his face projecting roughly the same level of concern that Jerry Seinfeld routinely expressed upon uttering, \"That\'s a shame.\"There\'s a fine line between cool and complacent. Cutler seemed to have been on the wrong side of it last night.Even after the game, he didn\'t seem to care. Speaking with Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports, Cutler \"nearly laughed\" when he said the words \"five interceptions.\"\"Fire away,\" Cutler told Silver before boarding the team bus. \"Feel free to do your job and give me the public ripping I have coming.\"Cool, or complacent?We\'re not saying that Cutler should rant and/or rave or piss and/or moan like some of the other more demonstrative quarterbacks we\'ve all seen over the years. But football is an emotional game, and the quarterback needs to at times seem like he gives a crap.Cutler rarely if ever has done that.

What would you think Bowlen would say? Jay is an amazing player and I can't believe our coach wanted to bring in another QB? Bloom your better than this, you know the owner has to say this after the situation. He is biased.Then yall complain about his attitude....yet in the second article....it looks like he is trying to shake off the interception. So which is it? You want him to be down and upset that he threw a pick....or brush it off?

People are going to pick and choose and spin articles to fit their agenda.How often do you hear about a QB coming back in after throwing an interception and slinging the ball around again being called "a tough player who can shake off a bad throw?" Or in a post game interview after a bad game the QB doesn't dwell on the bad and he's called "mentally tough and doesn't let things get to him." You can't have it both ways, or maybe you can, when you give it whatever meaning you want. There's a lot of that here, you just have to sift through the BS.

 

[heidbrink]

...just have to sift through the BS...

and these arguments are pretty much irrelevant to ff imho. Whether you "like" the guy or not has little (no) bearing on his fantasy success. I don't see any reason to believe Cutler will be anything except improved over last year.

 

[Max Power]

One of the things that concerns me about Cutler is that he doesn't have the mindset to be an elite quarterback. He's easily rattled, he lets people get inside his head, and his attitude is questionable. When a play breaks down, instead of maintaining a cool head, he forces something and it usually ends in a bad result. I just wonder if the Martz/Cutler marriage will work, given that Martz likes to have a lot of control and Cutler likes to do his own thing. I acknowledge the upside but I also think this has a chance to go very, very wrong.

Proof of this would be???

Watching the Bears last year? Cutler's body language after interceptions? The way he got himself traded out of Denver? The fact that the Bears record was worse with him at the helm than it was with Orton, and the Broncos wasn't?

Totally irrelevant.So many more factors played into the teams record than just QB play.

The most notable being Denver's improved Defense in 09. In 08 they gave up 28 points a game, in 09 20 points a game. So on average Cutler had to lead two additional scoring drives a game to maintain the same record.

Chicago had a lot of other things going against them last year as well. A new QB learning a new system, the loss of its starting middle lineback for 15 games, and major improvements to two teams in the division

 

[moleculo]

do you think Chicago will throw the ball almost 2x as often as they run? That's what Martz did in Det in 2006.

The Cutler-led Bears threw the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps (4% were sacks, 38% runs), which was good enough to place them as the 4th pass-heaviest team in the NFL behind only Arizona, Seattle, and Indianapolis. I took the time to break down the boxscore of every game since 1999 where Martz was a team's Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. His average Pass:Run:Sack ratio over those 8,757 plays was 58 % pass, 37% run, 5 % sack.from that mike clay link above me.

edit: 2008 denver was probably at least that.

more edits: from the linked mike clay article, he threw the ball a little over 50% in SF.

how did that work out for them?IMO, it's simple - QB FF success does not necessarily correlate to NFL success. Teams that are losing throw more, teams that are winning throw less. If the Bears are to be better in 2010 than they were in 2009, one would hope that they throw the ball less, not more.

IMO, return of urlacher + Peppers = better defense = fewer passing attempts, despite Martz. Maytbe cutler can increase his YPA and reduce his int's, but he won't increase his fantasy value because he will have more passing attempts.

 

[Chase Stuart]

do you think Chicago will throw the ball almost 2x as often as they run? That's what Martz did in Det in 2006.

The Cutler-led Bears threw the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps (4% were sacks, 38% runs), which was good enough to place them as the 4th pass-heaviest team in the NFL behind only Arizona, Seattle, and Indianapolis. I took the time to break down the boxscore of every game since 1999 where Martz was a team's Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. His average Pass:Run:Sack ratio over those 8,757 plays was 58 % pass, 37% run, 5 % sack.from that mike clay link above me.

edit: 2008 denver was probably at least that.

more edits: from the linked mike clay article, he threw the ball a little over 50% in SF.

how did that work out for them?IMO, it's simple - QB FF success does not necessarily correlate to NFL success. Teams that are losing throw more, teams that are winning throw less. If the Bears are to be better in 2010 than they were in 2009, one would hope that they throw the ball less, not more.

IMO, return of urlacher + Peppers = better defense = fewer passing attempts, despite Martz. Maytbe cutler can increase his YPA and reduce his int's, but he won't increase his fantasy value because he will have more passing attempts.

The Bears were 27th in total plays run last year; they had trouble converting first downs and sustaining long drives. Conversely, the defense wasn't very good, allowing longer drives. A more efficient offense and a better defense could lead to more plays, and more passing plays, even if the percentage of pass to run plays remains the same.

 

[thatguy]

Where is Cutler being taken in early drafts? I previously thought he'd be a good value pick, but I don't know, perhaps the Martz offense hype has been enough to boost his perceived value.

I expect a top 10 finish from him - he'll probably be closer to the QB5-7 range. I don't think Martz will be the driving factor behind his improvement, but he certainly won't hurt - I think it will be more due to a natural growth/improvement curve. He ended the season on a high note and I expect that to carry over, especially with a full season and now off-season of work with his young receivers.

As for all the talk about his attitude problems/complacency/etc., I think it's a bit overblown. As a Broncos fan, I did hate him for a while, but most of that stemmed from the fact that I hated seeing him leave town - I can't really blame him for wanting out after all of McD's antics. I think it's pretty silly to assume that he 'doesn't give a crap' simply due to body language. He handles mistakes/adversity in his own way, just as we all do, and I don't believe for one second that it doesn't bother him when he plays poorly, or that he won't do all he can to improve his play.

 

[David Yudkin]

Where is Cutler being taken in early drafts? I previously thought he'd be a good value pick, but I don't know, perhaps the Martz offense hype has been enough to boost his perceived value. I expect a top 10 finish from him - he'll probably be closer to the QB5-7 range. I don't think Martz will be the driving factor behind his improvement, but he certainly won't hurt - I think it will be more due to a natural growth/improvement curve. He ended the season on a high note and I expect that to carry over, especially with a full season and now off-season of work with his young receivers. As for all the talk about his attitude problems/complacency/etc., I think it's a bit overblown. As a Broncos fan, I did hate him for a while, but most of that stemmed from the fact that I hated seeing him leave town - I can't really blame him for wanting out after all of McD's antics. I think it's pretty silly to assume that he 'doesn't give a crap' simply due to body language. He handles mistakes/adversity in his own way, just as we all do, and I don't believe for one second that it doesn't bother him when he plays poorly, or that he won't do all he can to improve his play.

Based on ADP data posted on FBG earlier in the week, Cutler is going QB8 and 70th overall. However, that is probably a good thing by comparison, as QB7 is Tony Romo at 38th overall. There are a ton of picks in between the two.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

to quote clubber lang: PAIN

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

So many more factors played into the teams record than just QB play. The most notable being Denver's improved Defense in 09. In 08 they gave up 28 points a game, in 09 20 points a game. So on average Cutler had to lead two additional scoring drives a game to maintain the same record.

yeah, when you continually give the ball back to the other team they tend to score more.actually, I think I might've just figured him out ---- when you've got a pretty big lead the coach might pull you late in games, or just eat the clock handing the ball off, but if the other team were to keep scoring you need to keep throwing, thus pimping your stats, thus ca-ching! on your next contract.cutler might just be smarter than the average bear.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I wouldn't be happy if I threw an interception...would you? Or after my WR's stop on routes/fall down/change direction that cause interceptions(you can bring up Jaws if you want....I know more than 3 of them were the receivers fault).

yeah, I'll bear that in mind as I compare his 26 picks to other qb's around the league, all of whom are solely responsible for every one of their picks.funny how orton had less than half that total with the bears, but maybe the groundskeeper hates cutler and greased the field, or maybe the wr's are conspiring against him..........hmmmm.....of course, orton threw 6 fewer picks in denver, too......better add some more people in that conspiracy to make cutler look like an idiot.2 words:cutlersux

Go fish somewhere else with that.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

So many more factors played into the teams record than just QB play. The most notable being Denver's improved Defense in 09. In 08 they gave up 28 points a game, in 09 20 points a game. So on average Cutler had to lead two additional scoring drives a game to maintain the same record.

yeah, when you continually give the ball back to the other team they tend to score more.actually, I think I might've just figured him out ---- when you've got a pretty big lead the coach might pull you late in games, or just eat the clock handing the ball off, but if the other team were to keep scoring you need to keep throwing, thus pimping your stats, thus ca-ching! on your next contract.cutler might just be smarter than the average bear.

Keep fishing...you don't like Cutler...we get it.

 

[candymanvandyfan]

How many NFL quarterbacks age 26 or younger ever had more than 80 passing touchdowns, more than 12,000 passing yards and over a 60% completion rate over their first four NFL seasons? Who are they?

 

[Chase Stuart]

How many NFL quarterbacks age 26 or younger ever had more than 80 passing touchdowns, more than 12,000 passing yards and over a 60% completion rate over their first four NFL seasons? Who are they?

The way you phrased the question turns it into nothing more than trivia, IMO. I don't think that it has much predictive value based on your cut-offs. That said, the answer to this trivia question is four: Cutler, Roethlisberger, Manning and Marino.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/cJ8bi

 

[candymanvandyfan]

How many NFL quarterbacks age 26 or younger ever had more than 80 passing touchdowns, more than 12,000 passing yards and over a 60% completion rate over their first four NFL seasons? Who are they?

The way you phrased the question turns it into nothing more than trivia, IMO. I don't think that it has much predictive value based on your cut-offs. That said, the answer to this trivia question is four: Cutler, Roethlisberger, Manning and Marino.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/cJ8bi

Big Ben didn't get to 12,000...

That leaves three...Dan Marino, Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler.

His touchdown numbers have increased every year as well. Hard to find too much fault in that start to a career.