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Jeremy Hill will be the #1 fantasy RB this year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
ponchsox
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Relative to the field? I sure do. Can't rely on a whole tier of players above you getting hurt or suspended every season, while you stay healthy and your timeshare buddy battles injuries.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is a poor narrative considering Hill didn't see significant action the first half of the season.Relative to the field? I sure do. Can't rely on a whole tier of players above you getting hurt or suspended every season, while you stay healthy and your timeshare buddy battles injuries.
One More Rep
Footballguy
He doesn't catch enough passes
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Don't care if he finishes #1 overall...but think he'll be a RB1 that I can grab for nice value in my drafts.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I'd call it about 90/10. Hill is a better inside runner, outside runner, pass blocker and arguably has better hands than Bernard. The only thing Bernard has over Hill is route running.I'd call him about 60/40 to be the best FF RB on the Bengals.
Hill finishing #1 will likely require a big step forward from the Bengals offense, it isn't crazy though. I don't think it is all that different than someone saying Le'Veon Bell would be #1 a year ago.
TripItUp
Footballguy
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One More Rep
Footballguy
If Hill has better hands they sure did not utilize him in that role last year, even in the games Gio missed
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Says the guy who hopes to snag Arian Foster at bottom of round 1. Please lock this thread. It's a curse to all Jeremy Hill owners.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I didn't realize his injury was that serious. Ok, I won't be drafting him at all.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dalton threw for 33 TDs just two seasons ago. Last season the Bengals lost AJ Green for multiple games and Eifert and Marvin Jones for practically the whole season.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Right, but their OC then was a pass-happy one; their OC now loves to run the ball. Green being healthy should get Daltons' TD total back in the 20s, but I'd be shocked if he hit 30 this year.
jurb26
Footballguy
An OC that wants to run the ball is a good thing for Hill.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
What about it? They have a really good OL that they just keep pouring resources into, and they want to run the ball a ton. And he's better than Gio in almost every aspect of the game.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
In PPR he won't be #1.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Obviously anyone who says this is much more likely to be correct than the OP...you're essentially taking the field. Not exactly going out on a limb there.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hes not Adrian Peterson.
Going out on a limb isn't synonymous with saying something good. Why award bonus credit for saying something less likely to be correct?
dschuler
Footballguy
He's on a short list but I wouldn't take him over Lacy, Charles, Bell, Forsett, and ADP. He's got great draft value, which is more important to me. I snagged Forsett and Hill in back to back rounds the other day and was very pleased. It wouldn't shock me if he finished #1, just think in PPR others are more likely.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Because at least it generates worthwhile conversation. You could go into any prediction thread here and just say "eh, probably not" with no reasoning and end up correct more often than not. Because taking the field is always a safer play.
I understand the need to pimp up your jewel. I would be doing the same if I loved the guy so much.I'd call it about 90/10. Hill is a better inside runner, outside runner, pass blocker and arguably has better hands than Bernard. The only thing Bernard has over Hill is route running.I'd call him about 60/40 to be the best FF RB on the Bengals.
I'd call it about 90/10. Hill is a better inside runner, outside runner, pass blocker and arguably has better hands than Bernard. The only thing Bernard has over Hill is route running.I'd call him about 60/40 to be the best FF RB on the Bengals.
But how do you figure Hill is a better outside runner, better pass blocker and - arguably - has better hands than Bernard? Watching the last 3-4 games of 2014, when both were healthy, it doesn't look like the Bengals coaching staff agrees with you. The statements from last week tend to back that up further.
I would say about even split on the outside running where Bernard wins on speed, but Hill wins on power. A good FB and WR blocking would probably bump up Bernard a lot more than Hill and, conversely, bad FB/WR blocking would ground him.
The pass blocking statement - what is that based on? Because based on my own eyes, Bernard certainly looks like the more adept blocker against the aggressive pass rush. That's probably a function of having an extra year of NFL experience and a lot more exposure to blocking in college. Hill is an okay blocker, definitely not bad, makes the most of his size as an obstacle and holds well against contained rushes on typical running downs.
Better hands? I guess you are referring to Hill's catch % towards the end of last year. Wouldn't argue with that - I find getting above 80% is superb from a guy with 20-30 receptions in college total. But better hands based on that? The overall target count speaks for itself.
Not a knock on Hill, btw - I fully expect him to crack the RB1 ranks and would gladly acquire him in dynasty. Just pointing out that - at this stage - such grand statements like the bolded are much more wishful thinking than reality.
Shutout
Footballguy
I'm guessing more of the same. THe list people have compiled above is what seems right. THe Bells, Lacy,Charles, and a few of those guys will have major opportunities and the one thing that they don't have to contend with is a teammate as talented as Gio to take any of that production away.
Peterson, I think, is going to be on a mission of the ages this year. I think he's actually the guy that might be #1 by a good margin.
Peterson, I think, is going to be on a mission of the ages this year. I think he's actually the guy that might be #1 by a good margin.
Shutout
Footballguy
And that's enough to keep Hill out of that top spot. As productive and good as Hill is, to be the top RB in any comprehensive ff league, you have to be getting the meaningful passing game plays, too. Bell wouldn't have been dominant without all those catches last year. In recent years, same for Foster and Charles and McCoy.
And it's not just the ppr points you get for the catch, it's those 300 extra yards and 3-4 TDs that come with it. That is what separates the elite.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is odd for someone who just said Peterson might do it.... He is just as receiving limited as Hill, maybe more so. It certainly helps to be involved in the passing game,minute it's not nessecary.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm responding to the quote that Bell was in a real offense (which implies Cinncy is not one). Cinncy offense has a ton of weapons in the passing game to keep a defense honest and like you said an OC committed to the run.
Shutout
Footballguy
The difference is Adrian Peterson's talent is well-established and he has the biggest chip on his shoulder that ever was. There are already many news tidbits coming out that Peterson is itching very badly to remind the world of what he is. There are also reports coming out that the Vikes have said they will give him more receiving opportunities.
It's not scientific, but in a simple way of saying it, I will just say I have learned not to bet against a motivated Adrian Peterson. I expect him to tear it up this year.
Bell is Hill and Gio combined, though.
All those touches that put Gio on a PPG basis right in the same neighborhood as Hill, even after Hill emerged, were going to go to Bell. That ain't happening in Cinci. In fact, unless Gio gets hurt again, Hill will lose some of them simply due to a healthier timeshare mate.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
For the record I don't project Hill as the No. 1 running back. I was simply responding to the chain that I did and Bell did kind of come out of nowhere to a large extent in 2014.Bell is Hill and Gio combined, though.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
It's difficult to see him passing Bell and Lacy, barring injury.
But Hill definitely has Top 5 potential.
But Hill definitely has Top 5 potential.
VaTerp
Footballguy
The thing is, the OP did not present it as a "bold prediction" or going out on a limb. He just made a statement and asked "why not" without offering any reasoning of his own to support it. So the thread is ultimately generating worthwhile discussion but it's entirely fair to respond by saying "in PPR he won't be #1."
An argument can be made that Hill was the best RB in football over the last 9 games of 2014 so predicting great things for him this year is to be expected. And in standard formats I think projecting him as the #1RB is not outlandish. But I don't consider him in that tier at this point, especially in PPR.
Someone said it wasn't all that different than saying L. Bell would be RB1 prior to last season. But it very clearly is. Bell had no competition for touches other than Blount, who was ultimately released by the team, after which Bell scored 8 of his 11 total TDs last year. And even with Blount on the roster Bell was the clear #1, and really the only, receiving option out of the backfield in Pitt last year.
Hill certainly demonstrated skills in the pass game but he still has to contend with Bernard who, while battling injuries and missing 3 games last year, still put up over 1,000 total yards and 7 TDs. While Hill is the lead and better overall RB, Bernard clearly will have a substantial role in this offense. Barring a long term injury to Bernard I don't think Hill gets the touches to be the #1 RB in FF this year in standard or PPR. And in PPR Hill drops out of the elite tier for me.
ETA- As someone else mentioned above, the Bengals also have what going into the season looks like one of the more difficult schedules against the run this year.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'd definitely take Hill before Gore in redraft ppr. I'd probably call Hill and Demarco pretty much a wash--and I would personally take Hill over Forsett. Dalton is not a trustworthy qb--and I think the coaches will rely more on the running game than Daltons arm. I think Hill could be primed for a big season (barring injury)--and Gio could be one of the best handcuffs in the game (to the point where he's probably a solid flex option in ppr leagues).
Dismattle
Footballguy
ADP W-O
Bell
Lacy
Charles W-O
McCoy New Regime
Murray W-O (Temp overuse)
Forsett
Gore W-O
Lynch Risk of being rested
Forte W-O
Barring the potential for Wheels falling off, that's a big list.. But personally I only see three other RB's in the discussion.
Hill worked to earn it.. Now Id like to see Hill prove his Coachs made the right call..
Bell
Lacy
Charles W-O
McCoy New Regime
Murray W-O (Temp overuse)
Forsett
Gore W-O
Lynch Risk of being rested
Forte W-O
Barring the potential for Wheels falling off, that's a big list.. But personally I only see three other RB's in the discussion.
Hill worked to earn it.. Now Id like to see Hill prove his Coachs made the right call..
