Jeremy Kerley, sleeper pick? (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

Anyone think that Jeremy Kerley could have decent value as a WR3 this year? He caught 56 passes for 827 yards (14.8YPC) last-season on a pitiful Jets team. Santonio Holmes is still recovering from his Lisfranc injury and the guy proved to me he had some wiggle / speed last. Rex Ryan has even stated that he plans to throw "long" more this season:

"The Jets are going to need to eliminate the drops from their game if Marty Mornhinweg’s West Coast offense is going to succeed in New York. The Jets have thrown downfield quite a bit in practices so far, something that Kerley said he both noticed and appreciated on Tuesday. One of Kerley’s drops Tuesday, however, came on a deep ball where he burned Antonio Allen and was wide open for a sure-fire touchdown. Asked if the Jets would throw long more this season, Ryan said, “Without question.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/jets/2013/06/rex-ryan-criticizes-wide-receivers-for-drops

-

From what I've seen, he's got the talent to produce in this league and it looks like he'll be one of the Jets starting wideouts to start the season. If Geno Smith gets the start, I think this guy definitely gets a bump. There were a few times last-year where it looked like Kerley could have done more with a certain plays but was limited by a poor throw.

I recall one play in specific where Kerley has his man burned for a sure Touchdown but the ball hung in the air and Kerley had to wait for it, resulting in 0 YAC on a play that could have been 6 - points.

 

[EBF]

I've always liked Kerley, but it would be a bit of a surprise if he did much better than his 2012 numbers. He's only 5'9" and he runs a 4.6. It's tough to become a great full-time starter at WR with that skill set.

I think Holmes is a better outside receiver if he can get healthy. I'm not sold on Hill, but the Jets will give him a chance. Keller's departure could open the door for other players, but he was banged up a lot last year anyway.

Overall, I think Kerley's best value will be as a slot WR and I don't think the Jets will pass enough to make him more than a bye week filler in most formats. If you're just looking for modest upside at a very late pick then maybe he could be a decent option like Hartline turned out to be last year. The ceiling seems pretty limited though.

 

[squistion]

Anyone think that Jeremy Kerley could have decent value as a WR3 this year? He caught 56 passes for 827 yards (14.8YPC) last-season on a pitiful Jets team. Santonio Holmes is still recovering from his Lisfranc injury and the guy proved to me he had some wiggle / speed last. Rex Ryan has even stated that he plans to throw "long" more this season:

"The Jets are going to need to eliminate the drops from their game if Marty Mornhinweg’s West Coast offense is going to succeed in New York. The Jets have thrown downfield quite a bit in practices so far, something that Kerley said he both noticed and appreciated on Tuesday. One of Kerley’s drops Tuesday, however, came on a deep ball where he burned Antonio Allen and was wide open for a sure-fire touchdown. Asked if the Jets would throw long more this season, Ryan said, “Without question.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/jets/2013/06/rex-ryan-criticizes-wide-receivers-for-drops

I do.

If he can get someone who can actually throw him the ball he could end up a decent flex option if Holmes is slow in recovering (and maybe even if Holmes is ready Week 1). Kerley can be had for next to nothing in most leagues and has great upside in PPRs. I have been high on him since his rookie year and own him in most of my leagues.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Anyone think that Jeremy Kerley could have decent value as a WR3 this year? He caught 56 passes for 827 yards (14.8YPC) last-season on a pitiful Jets team. Santonio Holmes is still recovering from his Lisfranc injury and the guy proved to me he had some wiggle / speed last. Rex Ryan has even stated that he plans to throw "long" more this season:

"The Jets are going to need to eliminate the drops from their game if Marty Mornhinweg’s West Coast offense is going to succeed in New York. The Jets have thrown downfield quite a bit in practices so far, something that Kerley said he both noticed and appreciated on Tuesday. One of Kerley’s drops Tuesday, however, came on a deep ball where he burned Antonio Allen and was wide open for a sure-fire touchdown. Asked if the Jets would throw long more this season, Ryan said, “Without question.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/jets/2013/06/rex-ryan-criticizes-wide-receivers-for-drops

I do.

If he can get someone who can actually throw him the ball he could end up a decent flex option if Holmes is slow in recovering (and maybe even if Holmes is ready Week 1). Kerley can be had for next to nothing in most leagues and has great upside in PPRs. I have been high on him since his rookie year and own him in most of my leagues.

That might be a problem.

 

[squistion]

I've always liked Kerley, but it would be a bit of a surprise if he did much better than his 2012 numbers. He's only 5'9" and he runs a 4.6. It's tough to become a great full-time starter at WR with that skill set.

I think Holmes is a better outside receiver if he can get healthy. I'm not sold on Hill, but the Jets will give him a chance. Keller's departure could open the door for other players, but he was banged up a lot last year anyway.

Overall, I think Kerley's best value will be as a slot WR and I don't think the Jets will pass enough to make him more than a bye week filler in most formats. If you're just looking for modest upside at a very late pick then maybe he could be a decent option like Hartline turned out to be last year. The ceiling seems pretty limited though.

Yes, running in a straight line at the combine or on pro day. But, from the games I saw last year he looked to play faster than that. I would say that he one of those players who has game speed as opposed to track speed. And I agree that he is best suited as a slot receiver.

 

[GeeYouknit]

I like Kerley with limited production though. I think it all depends, not necessarily on the the QB play, but more the WR play on the outside. If they can prove to actually help out the offense Kerley could see things open up a lot more on the inside especially with Keller gone. I think he could sneak into a 1000 yds but with limited TD's.

I completely agree about his "game speed" though. He seems to be very quick and decisive so that can't hurt what he can bring to the table.

 

[kwille]

He's a great guy to have on your squad as a WR 4 or 5 especially in dynasty leagues. You can get him for next to nothing and he functions as a dependable bye week or short term fill-in. Way better than most other options for that part of your roster. Plus he brings youth and a bit of upside which could be useful if the QB situation ever improves in NY or if he moves to a different team. Kind of like a poor man's Denarius Moore in that respect (different kind of receiver, but you get the point).

 

[Faust]

Holmes can't run (at least not right now) and Hill can't catch (or run proper routes), and Keller took his act to Miami, so why not?

If he has a great start to this year, I would be looking to flip him for a better asset - sell high my friends, sell high!

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

I don't. I know Rex was talking about his WRs the last couple of days, but it's not like he was singling Kerley out as someone who was catching the ball. I'm in no hurry to go get him personally....

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

He was the only regular WR left last year and he looks like a real reliable pro, the kind of guy the Jets should throw to over and over again. But you really have to believe the Jets offense is going to be better for this to make sense. I'm sure he will be out there on waivers for anyone to take a flyer and he could have occasional value in certain games, but it won't take long this year to see if the Jets are the same dumpster quality offens they were last year.

 

[cstu]

No one has referenced Welker yet?

If Kerley was getting Welker's targets he'd be putting up insane numbers too. Kerley's numbers (56/827/2) last year were even better than Welker's best in Miami (67/687/1).

 

[squistion]

No one has referenced Welker yet?

If Kerley was getting Welker's targets he'd be putting up insane numbers too. Kerley's numbers (56/827/2) last year were even better than Welker's best in Miami (67/687/1).

Um, as much as I like Kerley, I am not quite ready yet to start making Welker comparisons.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley were two of ESPN New York's Rich Cimini's three "duds" of minicamp.

Coach Rex Ryan has expressed his discontent with the Jets' receiving corps multiple times throughout OTAs and minicamp, and on Thursday he simply said "it has to get better." The Jets need to add a veteran receiver, especially with all of the uncertainty surrounding Santonio Holmes, but the free-agent market is awfully barren. S Antonio Allen was Cimini's other "dud," while OLB Ricky Sapp, TE Hayden Smith, RB John Griffin, and CB Aaron Berry were the "studs."

Related: Jeremy Kerley

Source: ESPN New York

 

[jwb]

To compare to another Jet, it would not surprise me to see Kerley have a Cotchery-like career. That's probably the limit of his upside though.

 

[HittinHard]

Have him on my roster from last year and think he is capable of 1000 yds,5tds if he gets the targets.

 

[NYJ]

I've always liked Kerley, but it would be a bit of a surprise if he did much better than his 2012 numbers. He's only 5'9" and he runs a 4.6. It's tough to become a great full-time starter at WR with that skill set.

You need to watch him play then. He doesn't rely on size and speed to get separation. He has short area quickness and great hands to catch poorly thrown balls. He's not just a slot receiver and excelled when played on the outside last season when Holmes went down. He was a reliable receiver and was targeted twice as much as any other player (Holmes was injured for the most part). He's not going to get many Red Zone targets so his TD ceiling is limited. It's a shame such a talent is buried away in a poor offense under such a poor QB.

As far as fantasy value goes, it's hard to argue that he's anything more than a WR5/6 if Holmes and Hill are healthy. They will limit his targets on a poor offense. I don't see his great YPC (14.8) holding up if he plays exclusively in the slot. If Holmes isn't healthy and Hill doesn't take a leap forward, he is a WR4/5 and a flex play on bye weeks at best.

I have Kerley and Stephen Hill as my WR5/6 in a startup dynasty. I drafted Hill and picked up Kerley on waivers as he went undrafted. He's my contingency plan if Hill doesn't become what I think he can become.

Projection: 50 receptions, 650 yards, 3 TD's.

 

[NYJ]

Have him on my roster from last year and think he is capable of 1000 yds,5tds if he gets the targets.

I agree, but I just don't see the targets being there for a slot receiver in this offense. Put him on the Pats and he would get 1,000 yards easily. Great player.

 

[FUBAR]

To compare to another Jet, it would not surprise me to see Kerley have a Cotchery-like career. That's probably the limit of his upside though.

Funny, I always think of a different Jet. Wayne Chrebet. Decent player, one season over 1,000 but a handful close to it.

 

[MAC_32]

If there were something to indicate he is expected to get > 90 receptions, maybe, but only if that's the case. Otherwise he's just another 4-50 WR you're hoping accidentally finds the endzone the rare week you have to start him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

To compare to another Jet, it would not surprise me to see Kerley have a Cotchery-like career. That's probably the limit of his upside though.

Funny, I always think of a different Jet. Wayne Chrebet. Decent player, one season over 1,000 but a handful close to it.

That's a good comparison. Chrebet was a little stronger, Kerley a little quicker, but they're both smart route runners with sure hands that are greater than the sum of their parts.Kerley may not have great timed speed, but is quick and can get separation downfield. He's limited in the Jet passing attack but could be a really sneaky fantasy pick as his skill set is well suited to the WCO the team will now employ.

 

[nirad3]

All of these random ex-Jet WR comparisons... how about comparing him to Geno Smith's main targets at WVU? Not saying Kerley is as dynamic as Tavon Austin (or Steadman Bailey for that matter), but a case could be made that Kerley has some similarities to those cats.

 

[HittinHard]

Good point i think Geno is going to like throwing to him

 

[Beerguzzler]

It's the Jets. Honestly taking ANY offensive player from that team is a wasted pick. Can't expect any consistency from them this season.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jeremy Kerley (elbow) looked "outstanding" in Thursday's practice, and is expected to return for Sunday's game against the Raiders.

The same is true of Santonio Holmes. Kerley last played in Week 9. His return is undoubtedly a boost for the Jets' tattered offense, but isn't going to make that much a of a difference in the grand scheme of things. Geno Smith is playing that poorly. Kerley can't be trusted as more than a WR5.


Source: Rich Cimini on Twitter

 

[Faust]

Jeremy Kerley has become Geno Smith’s security blanket:

http://nypost.com/2014/09/26/jeremy-kerley-has-become-geno-smiths-security-blanket/

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Picked him up this week in 14 Team Dynasty ... worth the shot and like the upside

 

[cstu]

No one has referenced Welker yet?

If Kerley was getting Welker's targets he'd be putting up insane numbers too. Kerley's numbers (56/827/2) last year were even better than Welker's best in Miami (67/687/1).

Nice to finally see him being used properly.

 

[Faust]

Analysis: Jeremy Kerley extension makes sense

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

New Jets GM Mike Maccagnan is "excited" for Jeremy Kerley to get more reps in 2015.
"In particular, I do like Kerley a little bit," Maccagnan said when asked about his "younger" receivers. "I'm kind of excited to see him get a few more reps than he got last year in terms of his playing time." A replacement-level talent, Kerley played a career-high 752 snaps last season. He posted a 38/409/1 line on 75 targets. We're not really sure how much bigger Kerley's role could realistically get. We'd expect his usage to remain similar in 2015.

Source: ESPN New York
Apr 2 - 4:29 PM

 

[Faust]

Did old questions about Jets WR Jeremy Kerley resurface with new staff?

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/53570/did-old-questions-about-jets-wr-jeremy-kerley-resurface-with-new-staff

 

[Faust]

Jeremy Kerley is listed as the 49ers' starting slot receiver on their Week 1 depth chart.
He's the only player listed at the position on the depth chart. Kerley is also the 49ers' No. 1 punt returner. Acquired in a trade with the Lions last week, Kerley is already stepping into what will probably be an important position in this fast, but simple, offense with popgun-armed Blaine Gabbert as its current quarterback. Gabbert likes to attack the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, and it's very possible Kerley and Vance McDonald are his favorite targets on a weekly basis. Kerley could have some PPR value as a WR4/5 this season.

 
 
Source: CSN Bay Area 
Sep 6 - 9:26 PM

 

[Frank Black]

I feel like by now, we know who Kerley is, a player who hasn't shined even when given opportunity.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Smelter

Ellington

Patton

Streater

Kerley?

The 9ers traded for Kerley and Streater. He had more than a few opportunities to take control of a position with a similarly poor WR depth chart in NYJ.

Technically the depth chart shows 3 starting WRs so Patton is still starting.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Smelter

Ellington

Patton

Streater

Kerley?

The 9ers traded for Kerley and Streater. He had more than a few opportunities to take control of a position with a similarly poor WR depth chart in NYJ.

Feels like Vance MacDonald has an incredible opportunity in front of him this year.

 

[jwb]

I feel like by now, we know who Kerley is, a player who hasn't shined even when given opportunity.

I somewhat disagree with this. First, he had Sanchez and Geno as QB's, and Rex Ryan's offensive genius. Then they bring in Decker and Marshall.

Kerley is a good wr, and with a change of scenery, it would not surprise me to see WR3 numbers from him. 

 

[Faust]

The Sacramento Bee's Matt Barrows reports Jeremy Kerley is "in position to see a lot of passes" this season.
Barrows also notes that Kerley "fits coach Chip Kelly's ideal mold" for a slot receiver; he's "rabbit quick, has a fast accelerator, and is mentally sharp." Kerley was just acquired in a trade two weeks ago, but is already listed as the 49ers' top slot receiver. He's also had experience in a similar offense after playing for Jets OC Chan Gailey last season. He could see 6-8 targets Monday night.

 
 
Source: Sacramento Bee 
Sep 9 - 8:58 AM

 

[Penguin]

Torrey Smith is the deep threat and defacto #1in that offense, kerley will be battling it out with Quinton Patten for #2 targets. I always liked Patton in college but he hasn't made the leap to the Pro level lik everyone had hoped. Heck, he was behind Ellington until Bruce blew his hammy out. Plenty of room for Kerley to move in and take over the #2 spot.

 

[Sweet Love]

While he could have a year like Tedd Ginn did last year, I would highly doubt it.  As a Jets fan, I always felt we were getting the most out of hi.  He's just a 500-600 yard kind of guy (and that is when he is being fed the ball).

 

[zamboni]

While he could have a year like Tedd Ginn did last year, I would highly doubt it.  As a Jets fan, I always felt we were getting the most out of hi.  He's just a 500-600 yard kind of guy (and that is when he is being fed the ball).

My sentiments exactly. He's a nice player with a lot of heart, but I wouldn't put my expecations too high. A few years back, he had an opportunity to be the guy amid a rash of Jets' WR injuries, and it's just not who he is.

 

[zamboni]

My sentiments exactly. He's a nice player with a lot of heart, but I wouldn't put my expecations too high. A few years back, he had an opportunity to be the guy amid a rash of Jets' WR injuries, and it's just not who he is.

I mentioned Kerley in the week 1 waiver wire thread, and I may have misread his value here on the Niners.

It's only one game, but it looks like his game fits in nicely with the Chip offense and Gabbert's checkdown tendencies. Could have some nice PPR value, especially for those (like yours truly) that are looking to replace at least some of Keenan Allen's PPR production.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Matthews was a target hog too. When they started throwing to TSmith short early I thought it might be him but he and Gabbert show no connection. Patton also seemed like a possibility but it looks to be Kerley. I bet he is dirt cheap on the WW.

 

[JFS171]

Matthews was a target hog too. When they started throwing to TSmith short early I thought it might be him but he and Gabbert show no connection. Patton also seemed like a possibility but it looks to be Kerley. I bet he is dirt cheap on the WW.

I think it's going to be Patton or Kerley, and Kerley's in that slot position... it's such a shame Ellington got hurt.  If Kerley could do something after the catch, that'd be big.  Did see though that Gabbert missed him on a 40+ yard TD, so maybe Kerley's upside is more than Patton's and more than folks are giving him credit for.  Everyone's going to chase Eli Rogers and similar types on the waiver wire, but maybe Kerley's the most valuable guy in PPR.

 

[zamboni]

I guess in hindsight, Chip's trade for Kerley a few weeks before training camp ended was not just for bench strength/depth. We'll see.

 

[Frank Black]

I remember Kerley having the occasional good game for the Jets, and then fading into inconsistency, even when he had more playing time as a result of injuries to other Jets WRs.  

I'd take a chance on picking him up only if you have bums on your roster who you don't mind dropping.  If you pick him up, better to see a couple more games until you start him.

 

[Phenomena]

I lost Allen in a league where there are a ton of bench spots; not much on the waiver wire (E. Rogers was rostered already), and I'm weak on bench WR.  11 targets is fantastic. Probably spending 30-50% of my wavier budget to get it.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I lost Allen in a league where there are a ton of bench spots; not much on the waiver wire (E. Rogers was rostered already), and I'm weak on bench WR.  11 targets is fantastic. Probably spending 30-50% of my wavier budget to get it.

Bruh...

 

[bagger]

Drafted Torrey smith, pondering dropping him for kerley. Seems crazy that smith can't shine there but clearly from pre season and game 1 there is no connection there.

 

[Stealthycat]

11 targets, 7 catches .... 61 yards ... I wonder did he get any endzone looks?

could he possibly get 120-130 targets or more this year? that can equal a very nice fantasy WR

 

[DropKick]

I lost Allen in a league where there are a ton of bench spots; not much on the waiver wire (E. Rogers was rostered already), and I'm weak on bench WR.  11 targets is fantastic. Probably spending 30-50% of my wavier budget to get it.

THIS is what I've been waiting to see all summer - someone dropping the majority of the waiver budget on the first guy with a sniff of fresh air.

Welcome to a high 2017 draft slot!

 

[CanaBuc]

Also have Torrey Smith. Think game script will be different in the future. SF was ahead the whole game so they ran and dink and dunked it. 

When they fall behind they will need to throw more and then Smith and MacDonald might be more involved. 

I think Kerley is a good pick up but not sure about dropping Smith just yet after one outlier game