I think this is very close to the truth. A broader cover-up best explains the decision not to report what McQueary witnessed in 2002. However, I don't think Sandusky had anything on Joe or the program. I think PSU helped sweep the 1998 incident under the rug. Remember, Sandusky was still a PSU coach at that time. It would have been very embarrassing to the program had the allegations come to light. Additionally, the allegations while bizarre and inappropriate,are not as serious as the current charges. Sandusky, allegedly took a shower with a kid. So he tells everyone this the first time he has ever done anything like this and that it will never happen again. PSU intervenes on his behalf, partly out of self-preservation, partly out of loyalty to Sandusky. Maybe PSU tells the local authorities they will ensure that Sandusky gets counseling. Everyone involved convinces himself that it was an isolated incident and that it is everyone's best interest to make the problem go away. Sandusky quietly retires.
Now fast forward to 2002. More serious allegations come to light. Everyone that was involved in the 1998 cover-up is still at PSU. They meet and decide that if they report Sandusky for the recent incident people will start digging around the 1998 incident and the lid will be blown of their cover-up. They decide to go all in on the cover-up and don't report what McQueary saw.
Of course this is all speculation. It does present a way to make some sense of the 2002 decision not to report Sandusky. That decision is so bizarre and unfathomable, it begs for a bizarre explanation. Its so obvious that you contact the authorities that there must have been something going on behind the scene. There is simply no way these high level administrators made such a poor decision without having some sort of compelling motivation.
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This scandal is a coverup of something else terible, IMO.
Let's walk through this logically.
McQueary -- a former star QB and now grad assistant -- sees an old retired coach prison raping a child. #1 -- HTF do you not stop him? You want to tell me that a former finalist for the Unitas award can't stop a 58-year-old man who's naked with a boy in the shower? He's 30 years younger than him and in much better shape.
But okay, let's think. McQueary sees this, and is sicked/shocked/disgusted. He freezes. He runs, cowardly, but he runs. That happens. Some people flee instead of fighting, I get that.
So he meets with Paterno the next day. How do you think this goes down? Take a second and picture them sitting in Paterno's living room.
MM: Um, Joe. This was really bad. I, uh,... I, uh, saw coach Sandusky. With a boy. In the shower.
JP: [stunned silence.]
MM: Yeah. It was, uh, not good.
JP: When was this?
MM: Last night. Late at night, I went back to the locker room and found them there.
JP: So he was in the shower Saturday night with a young boy when he thought everyone had gone home?
MM: Yes. It was, uh, really bad. I don't even know if I can say it out loud.
JP: Oh my goodness. I don't think I even want to hear this. We need to meet with the AD and Curley and maybe Spanier as soon as possible.
MM: Okay.
JP: This is bad.
MM: Yes.
Now they all meet, and McQueary tells the story. The administration asks him for every detail, and he supplies it to them.
Curley and the AD say "Okay, this is horrible. But stop for a second. If we go to the police, they're going to ask us what evidence do we have. Mike, do you have any evidence?"
MM: No. I just, ya know, saw it. It happened, trust me. But no, I have no evidence.
AD: Okay, let's think this through.
From here, I see three scenarios.
The normal person reaction
Okay, this is bad. But let's go to the police. I am sure there was surveillance video of him entering the building, presumably with the kid. Then at least we can identify him. Then it would be 2 people's word against 1. Plus, maybe once the police start questioning Sandusky, he admits to it?
I mean, I don't know. This is ugly, and could become a circus. But obviously we need to do something. Let's tell the police, and hope we can convict this guy. Once the police are involved, we can find out a lot more. If nothing else, it ruins his reputation and prevents him from ever doing this again.
The cover-up but that's it response
Okay, this is bad. But here's the problem. We have almost no evidence. This is going to look terrible on the school. We don't even know who the kid is. Jerry is a sicko, but we all used to like him. We don't want to see him being remembered like this. Here's what we do: We go to him, tell him what happened, and say he's got to go to the other side of the country. Jerry, we know what happened, we are disgusted by it, we hope you get help, but please GTFO of State College. Immediately. You lose access to everything, immediately. I don't care about your house. Hire someone to sell it for you. You have any problem with this, we go to the police and handle it that way.
What actually happened
Now WHY would that not happen? After Paterno and the administration knew about it, how could they not kick Sandusky out immediately? Why in the world would they not tell him -- at a BARE MINIMUM -- get the F out of State College or we go to the cops. We caught you, you have no leverage, you're done. Leave here and never, ever come back, and this is us being NICE to you.
We are sickened by you, and maybe we're being slimy, but we don't want to bring down the school, the program, or even you. Just go far away.
There's only one reason that didn't happen. Sandusky had something on someone. If he had something on JoePa personally, I think the school says F off. He must have had something on the school.
Realistically, he is most likely to have what? Something where he has access, the football program. So he's got something on the football program. And Sandusky probably documented all of this, knowing that he could use it one day as leverage. If you're a sick child-raping monster and are worried that one day you'll be caught by X and Y, as a side-hobby, you're going to do everything you can to get something on X and Y to prevent you from going to jail.
I suspect Sandusky probably kept notes on players being paid or something of that ilk for years. Maybe it was worse -- maybe a player raped or murdered someone, and Sandusky and co. helped sweep it under the rug: but not before Sandusky kept evidence of it. He knew he would need something if he ever got caught.
Now the administration is in a bind. If they go nuclear on Sandusky, he goes to the press/police/ncaa with whatever he has. And what he has is bad. So they threaten him to leave, and he plays hardball. He says F you to Paterno and Spanier and Curley. He says I've got X on you, I'm not leaving. They reach a middle ground, where he stays far in the background but is allowed to stay on campus.
And then all of this breaks.
Is this a conspiracy theory? Of course. But the most likely explanation is the simplest.
Why does the school -- knowing beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was prison raping children -- allow Sandusky to stay on campus, be listed in the phone directory as a member of the administration, have access to the facilities, etc.? Because he had something on them. And he had proof.
Who knows what that is.
It's a fascinating theory, but I think they knew about previous Sandusky crimes. Uncovering it in 2002 would've inevitably uncovered those (or Sandusky would rat them out for knowing) and what has happened recently would've happened in 02. So they continued to cover up. Why else do you cover in 02 when the guy wasn't even a coach or employee anymore? Yeah it would've been embarassing and a big story for a week but that would've been the end of it.