Jimmy Graham in the bottom of the first round? (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

So my draft is coming up tonight: 10 player PPR league. We won't know the order until we draw numbers just before the draft starts.

I've been thinking long and hard about, if I end up in the bottom half of the first round, drafting Jimmy Graham. The logic is simple: once you get past the top 5 or so running backs, there's a lot of depth in the second tier, enough for me to grab a very good one in round 2. (Im thinking David Wilson, Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris, or Steven Jackson). The overall depth at QB and WR are incredible this year so I can wait a few rounds at either position. And the difference between Graham and every other TE is too much to ignore.

But I'm not sure. Is this a good idea?

 

[ponchsox]

I've see Graham fall to the 3rd round in 10 team drafts, he will be there at the end of round 2 for sure. So yeah, bad idea.

 

[Hoss Style]

In PPR is he that much better than Witten? I mean, I know Graham's his own teir, but enough to sacrifice your first round pick? And possibly get Witten later?

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I've see Graham fall to the 3rd round in 10 team drafts, he will be there at the end of round 2 for sure. So yeah, bad idea.

If you're picking at the end of the 3rd round in a PPR league Graham will not be there. If you don't pick Graham in the 1st two rounds he's not falling back down to you. I would feel confident about grabbing him in the second.

 

[chickensoup]

The only time I think Graham is a viable first round pick is in 1.5 PPR for TE leagues. Value wise it's fine, but what you give up at RB depth wise possibly puts you in a deep deep hole.

 

[The Jerk]

Although the gap between Graham and the remainder of the TE position is larger, another gap exists between Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant and the rest of the WRs. In larger start-3WR leagues, the gaps become similar due to needing 36 or even 42 WRs as starters.

Personally, I'd rather have one of the top three WRs than Graham, because I while I don't get the size of the edge Graham is expected to provide at TE, I still get a decent edge on most of my competitors. But I also leave open the possibility of value sliding at TE later in the draft. Once Graham is yours, unless you can start two TEs, other sliding TEs are most likely only useable as trade bait.

I know the consensus view is that the wide receiver position is deep this year, and in fact I concur, but deep actually cuts both ways. If there's not much difference between WR6 and WR 26 (just numbers used as an example), that also implies getting a top WR also has value. Drafting late in a 12 team league, I'd rather double up at WR than choose Graham, but my most likely approach would me to get whatever RB remains of the top 10 followed by WR in the second round. (For me, I have a significant drop after 10 RBs.) If I'm 12th and the 10 RBs are all gone, only then would I probably double up at WR.

Let me emphasize again that strategy is always heavily dependent on league starting lineup requirements, size, etc.

 

[timschochet]

Although the gap between Graham and the remainder of the TE position is larger, another gap exists between Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant and the rest of the WRs. In larger start-3WR leagues, the gaps become similar due to needing 36 or even 42 WRs as starters.

Personally, I'd rather have one of the top three WRs than Graham, because I while I don't get the size of the edge Graham is expected to provide at TE, I still get a decent edge on most of my competitors. But I also leave open the possibility of value sliding at TE later in the draft. Once Graham is yours, unless you can start two TEs, other sliding TEs are most likely only useable as trade bait.

I know the consensus view is that the wide receiver position is deep this year, and in fact I concur, but deep actually cuts both ways. If there's not much difference between WR6 and WR 26 (just numbers used as an example), that also implies getting a top WR also has value. Drafting late in a 12 team league, I'd rather double up at WR than choose Graham, but my most likely approach would me to get whatever RB remains of the top 10 followed by WR in the second round. (For me, I have a significant drop after 10 RBs.) If I'm 12th and the 10 RBs are all gone, only then would I probably double up at WR.

Let me emphasize again that strategy is always heavily dependent on league starting lineup requirements, size, etc.

Great stuff to think about, thanks!

 

[Koya]

I don't see Graham slipping past mid to late second round, FWIW. In a fairly straight forward .5 ppr he went early second and no one seemed that surprised.

Only way he may slip into the third is a 2QB league as it pushes all positions down half a round very early and up to a round by the end of the second (10-15 QBs off by end of the second early third as opposed to 0-2)

 

[The Jerk]

Tim,

If you really want Graham, there's no way he gets to you past the second round. Once again, this produces a dilemma:

On the one hand, I try to avoid ever directly targeting one specific player, as it tends to diminish value (overpaying for the player) or someone else beats you to the selection.

On the other hand, if you feel that strongly about a player, go get him. Probably there's nothing worse than being right on a player, but being a round too late to take him.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Tim,

If you really want Graham, there's no way he gets to you past the second round. Once again, this produces a dilemma:

On the one hand, I try to avoid ever directly targeting one specific player, as it tends to diminish value (overpaying for the player) or someone else beats you to the selection.

On the other hand, if you feel that strongly about a player, go get him. Probably there's nothing worse than being right on a player, but being a round too late to take him.

The problem is that, if you look at the RBs and WRs getting taken around the bottom of the first and their expected production, vs. what's available at those spots by, say the end of the 5th round where you'd perhaps otherwise take a TE, by taking Graham you're basically locked into needing a Gronk-in-2011 season to earn back the VBD implied from picking him at 9 or 10 overall. There's no upside there, only downside.

Aaron Rodgers put up an absolutely epic 2011, but in my leagues, none of his owners won the whole thing. He got drafted so early relative to his peers that even a 4700yd / 45TD / 6INT season wasn't enough to justify passing over MJD or McCoy at that spot. I see this being a very likely outcome for anyone taking Graham in the 1st this year as well.

 

[Doug B]

FWIW, I drafted Graham 1.08 overall last year in a league full of Saints homers (might have been gone by pick 2.5). However, it was (a) a PPR league where TE receptions count double and (b) a league where a second TE can be used as a flex. A back as solid as Marshawn Lynch was still available to me at 2.05.

Didn't hurt my team's overall quality, though I had a disappointing draft.

 

[Statorama]

I went with Graham as my second round wrap-around pick as I drafted 12th in a re-draft 12-teamer. Got hosed at RB as there was a monster run until it came back to me in the 3rd round. Really like my team, but the RB hole is huge. Grabbed Sproles in the third, but had to take some later gambles on guys that I really don't like in the first place (McFadden, Mendenhall - and now Mendy's injured).

WR depth is HUGE. If you wait there I think you'll be fine (unless one of the top 3 is staring you in the face). RB isn't as deep as everyone thinks it is. Reflecting on my draft, I'd say go against picking Graham early and snag someone like Jared Cook later or even take a chance on Gronk at 5/6.

I'd only go the Graham route if you were in a start 1 RB league (with multiple Flex) or if you think you can beat someone to the waiver wire if a backup RB suddenly became rosterable.

It was an interesting experiment though.

 

[Koya]

I went with Graham as my second round wrap-around pick as I drafted 12th in a re-draft 12-teamer. Got hosed at RB as there was a monster run until it came back to me in the 3rd round. Really like my team, but the RB hole is huge. Grabbed Sproles in the third, but had to take some later gambles on guys that I really don't like in the first place (McFadden, Mendenhall - and now Mendy's injured).

WR depth is HUGE. If you wait there I think you'll be fine (unless one of the top 3 is staring you in the face). RB isn't as deep as everyone thinks it is. Reflecting on my draft, I'd say go against picking Graham early and snag someone like Jared Cook later or even take a chance on Gronk at 5/6.

I'd only go the Graham route if you were in a start 1 RB league (with multiple Flex) or if you think you can beat someone to the waiver wire if a backup RB suddenly became rosterable.

It was an interesting experiment though.

Strat, I think your post goes toward two very key points.

1. Know your draft and scoring. Not all drafts have the same trends. Sometimes dependent upon your scoring, or the personalities / tendencies of other owners, that RB run may not occur at the same pace draft to draft, which leads to...

2. Draft position. With a lower pick overall and therefore a high 2nd Rounder, as you suggest, it's a long wait until your next pick. Not only can those big runs occur, but you don't really know if it will happen or not. Someone choosing 2.08 vs. 2.04 might have a totally different set of options, as they might see 5 or 6 RBs in the next tier or two that they'd be happy with, and they are confident a couple would drop. Those couple would not likely drop to late third.

 

[timschochet]

Thanks for the input. I'm now thinking I will go with Graham, if he's available, in round 2. (No matter how early my pick is.) Round 1 is too high.

So, if Graham is available, my first 5 picks would look like this:

RB

TE

RB

WR

WR

If Graham is not available by my 2nd round pick, my first 5 picks would look like this:

RB

RB

WR

RB

WR

Anyhow, that's the plan. Of course, everything could change if somebody at extremely high value gets ignored for some reason. That's the thing about drafts- you can't stick with a strategy no matter what- you have to be willing to adjust to the situation.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Nit sure why you would pass on Peterson

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

I'd only go the Graham route if you were in a start 1 RB league (with multiple Flex) or if you think you can beat someone to the waiver wire if a backup RB suddenly became rosterable.

We're allowed to keep rookies from last year so I have David Wilson in the 8th round and Lamar Miller in the 18th and we only need to start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 flex. I have the 1.09 spot in a 12 team league and I'm thinking of going Graham in the first and then best WR in the 2nd. We have 1.5 ppr for TE's so that obviously makes them valuable enough to make this move. I'd rather wait until the 2nd to get him but I'm not so sure he'd be there.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

So my draft is coming up tonight: 10 player PPR league. We won't know the order until we draw numbers just before the draft starts.

I've been thinking long and hard about, if I end up in the bottom half of the first round, drafting Jimmy Graham. The logic is simple: once you get past the top 5 or so running backs, there's a lot of depth in the second tier, enough for me to grab a very good one in round 2. (Im thinking David Wilson, Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris, or Steven Jackson). The overall depth at QB and WR are incredible this year so I can wait a few rounds at either position. And the difference between Graham and every other TE is too much to ignore.

But I'm not sure. Is this a good idea?

You're way too high on David Wilson. He's a 4th rounder in most of the mocks I've done.

 

[Raider Nation]

I've been thinking about this a lot. There is such a perceived dropoff between Graham and the #2 TE that, where you'll have to take him, there is enormous pressure for him to justify that selection, because the rest of your roster will suffer more than if you passed him up. He will HAVE to stay healthy and he will HAVE to produce on the level everyone expects for you to actually gain the advantage at the position.

I'd rather fade him, personally. He is a phenomenal player, but if someone wants him in the 1st round.... they can have him. I see 12-14 tight ends I would feel comfortable starting every week. The position has really evolved into a wealth of receiving talent. Grab a stud at another position.

 

[flapgreen]

I've see Graham fall to the 3rd round in 10 team drafts, he will be there at the end of round 2 for sure. So yeah, bad idea.

If you're picking at the end of the 3rd round in a PPR league Graham will not be there. If you don't pick Graham in the 1st two rounds he's not falling back down to you. I would feel confident about grabbing him in the second.

Tim took him mid 1st

 

[Raider Nation]

I've see Graham fall to the 3rd round in 10 team drafts, he will be there at the end of round 2 for sure. So yeah, bad idea.

If you're picking at the end of the 3rd round in a PPR league Graham will not be there. If you don't pick Graham in the 1st two rounds he's not falling back down to you. I would feel confident about grabbing him in the second.

Tim took him mid 1st

Not even. 6 out of 16 teams.

 

[timschochet]

That's very different. That's a 16 player league that values receivers greater than running backs. I feel justified taking him high in that case.

 

[ShaqAttaq]

I've been thinking about this a lot. There is such a perceived dropoff between Graham and the #2 TE that, where you'll have to take him, there is enormous pressure for him to justify that selection, because the rest of your roster will suffer more than if you passed him up. He will HAVE to stay healthy and he will HAVE to produce on the level everyone expects for you to actually gain the advantage at the position.

I'd rather fade him, personally. He is a phenomenal player, but if someone wants him in the 1st round.... they can have him. I see 12-14 tight ends I would feel comfortable starting every week. The position has really evolved into a wealth of receiving talent. Grab a stud at another position.

i think RN is correct here. tomorrow, i'm drafting 12/12 and have been oscillating between my assumed choices of RB/graham and RB/bryant and the 1/2 turn. i think that the safer move is to take the WR or another RB and try to get a good TE later.

 

[timschochet]

I actually had the chance to do this last night. I had the 10th pick in our draft (10 round PPR). The first 9 picks were running backs + Calvin. Somehow, though, LeSean McCoy wasn't taken. So that was easy.

But now I had to decide about the 11th pick. Before this thread, it would have been Jimmy Graham. I knew he wasn't coming back to me. But I decided it was just too early. I took Chris Johnson. Graham got selected 4 picks later, and I settled for Finley much later in the draft.

Hope I made the right decision...

 

[kegger]

I think you did pretty darn good there.

I'd much rather have LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson with Finley..

Then LeSean McCoy and Graham with the low value RB you'd get in the 3rd.

 

[jagbag]

Just interested, where did Forte go ? Ours is a 10 team PPR league as well.

We don't draft until next Tuesday.

 

[Timmay]

I was able to land Graham in the 3rd round in a 12 team league, 27th overall. I was happy to land him there, but my WR's took a huge hit after I took Charles/Ridley/Graham/Miller.

 

[timschochet]

Just interested, where did Forte go ? Ours is a 10 team PPR league as well.

We don't draft until next Tuesday.

In the middle of the 2nd. I considered him when I took Chris Johnson.

 

[Thunderlips]

I'm 9th in a 12 team and am thinking about him with my 2nd round pick. My problem is that there's going to be more than one TE taken later in the draft that will, when you factor in production and draft spot will outperform Graham. I don't think he's that head and shoulders above his competition.....certainly not like Gonzalez was in the early 2000s.

 

[boots11234]

10 ten ppr, I drafted second. Took Charles, gram, bush on the turn into the third. Thought I did very well.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If it's PPR and TE is required then he's a 1st rounder at pick 7 or higher.

If not, then at least somewhere in the 2nd half of the 2nd round.

 

[BWill]

10 ten ppr, I drafted second. Took Charles, gram, bush on the turn into the third. Thought I did very well.

Drafted yesterday, took AP @ 1, AJ Green/Graham at the 20/21 turn... Then Reggie Bush/DMC at the next.

 

[Doug B]

FWIW, I drafted Graham 1.08 overall last year in a league full of Saints homers (might have been gone by pick 2.5). However, it was (a) a PPR league where TE receptions count double and (b) a league where a second TE can be used as a flex. A back as solid as Marshawn Lynch was still available to me at 2.05.

Didn't hurt my team's overall quality, though I had a disappointing draft.

FWIW:

In this same league, we had our draft this past Sunday. Graham went at 2.01 (13th overall). He wouldn't have fallen much further, as I was targeting Graham at my own selection (2.02, 14th).

 

[Gottabesweet]

I pick 1.9 in a 12 team PPR 6 per TD league, been questioning this all summer

We start QB RB WR TE 2flex

Only 4 bench spots, wouldn't Graham be a huge asset? Then roll with RB 3WRs?

 

[boots11234]

If it's PPR and TE is required then he's a 1st rounder at pick 7 or higher.

If not, then at least somewhere in the 2nd half of the 2nd round.

Agree with this. You get wr numbers from a TE slot. The drop from him to the next TE is significant.

 

[Raider Nation]

If it's PPR and TE is required then he's a 1st rounder at pick 7 or higher.

If not, then at least somewhere in the 2nd half of the 2nd round.

Agree with this. You get wr numbers from a TE slot. The drop from him to the next TE is significant.

What about 0.5 PPR?

Edit: 0.5 PPR for everyone.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If it's PPR and TE is required then he's a 1st rounder at pick 7 or higher.

If not, then at least somewhere in the 2nd half of the 2nd round.

Agree with this. You get wr numbers from a TE slot. The drop from him to the next TE is significant.

What about 0.5 PPR?

Then push him into the top half of the 2nd round.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Andy,

What about my settings a post above, what players would you take over him.

 

[flapgreen]

I think you did pretty darn good there.

I'd much rather have LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson with Finley..

Then LeSean McCoy and Graham with the low value RB you'd get in the 3rd.

How about Shady with the 16th pick in the first round in a league full of professionals?

 

[flapgreen]

I've been thinking about this a lot. There is such a perceived dropoff between Graham and the #2 TE that, where you'll have to take him, there is enormous pressure for him to justify that selection, because the rest of your roster will suffer more than if you passed him up. He will HAVE to stay healthy and he will HAVE to produce on the level everyone expects for you to actually gain the advantage at the position.

I'd rather fade him, personally. He is a phenomenal player, but if someone wants him in the 1st round.... they can have him. I see 12-14 tight ends I would feel comfortable starting every week. The position has really evolved into a wealth of receiving talent. Grab a stud at another position.

i think RN is correct here. tomorrow, i'm drafting 12/12 and have been oscillating between my assumed choices of RB/graham and RB/bryant and the 1/2 turn. i think that the safer move is to take the WR or another RB and try to get a good TE later.

Right with you.

 

[Hoss Style]

Maybe I just don't see the drop off as much as others do. I think there's value in TE's later - especially when the crop of RBs is seemingly shallow this year.

I seem to be in the minority here, but last year Witten had 110 catches. Reports from camp are they are going to try to get him involved in the redzone more. He had 3 TDs last year - I think 5 is a reasonable jump this year.

Do the Graham people think Graham's going to keep his 9 TDs from last year (I'd agree with that) and jump his receptions from 85 to 100+? If so, I see the value. Or do you think he'll up his yards? Or both?

Genuinely curious about this. I'm not in as many drafts as I used to be and don't know what you guys are seeing/hearing out there.

*Edit* to add that I'm not saying Witten holds that 110 catch rate. I have him ranked with 96. Some say lower, but if the WRs get nicked up I think Witten will still get his looks to hit around that number.

 

[jeeb]

Maybe I just don't see the drop off as much as others do. I think there's value in TE's later - especially when the crop of RBs is seemingly shallow this year.

I seem to be in the minority here, but last year Witten had 110 catches. Reports from camp are they are going to try to get him involved in the redzone more. He had 3 TDs last year - I think 5 is a reasonable jump this year.

Do the Graham people think Graham's going to keep his 9 TDs from last year (I'd agree with that) and jump his receptions from 85 to 100+? If so, I see the value. Or do you think he'll up his yards? Or both?

Genuinely curious about this. I'm not in as many drafts as I used to be and don't know what you guys are seeing/hearing out there.

*Edit* to add that I'm not saying Witten holds that 110 catch rate. I have him ranked with 96. Some say lower, but if the WRs get nicked up I think Witten will still get his looks to hit around that number.

Graham was apparently in an incredible amount of pain all of last year due to a wrist injury. He had a lot of drops which he attributed to the wrist injury. Graham apparently killed it during offseason workouts, getting ready for his CONTRACT YEAR for the biggest payday of his life. His line of 99rec - 1310yds - 11tds in 2011 should be a baseline for this year.

Witten had a unsustainable reception % last year with an unusually high number of targets last year due to a lack of receiving options in Dallas. I have Witten still going for 85rec - 900yds - 4tds, which in my league is almost 6 pts/game less than what I have Graham getting every week. So IMO, the dropoff between Graham and the #2 TE is about a touchdown every week (until Gronkowski comes back), whatever that means to you in terms of draft position.

 

[Khy]

Maybe I just don't see the drop off as much as others do. I think there's value in TE's later - especially when the crop of RBs is seemingly shallow this year.

I seem to be in the minority here, but last year Witten had 110 catches. Reports from camp are they are going to try to get him involved in the redzone more. He had 3 TDs last year - I think 5 is a reasonable jump this year.

Do the Graham people think Graham's going to keep his 9 TDs from last year (I'd agree with that) and jump his receptions from 85 to 100+? If so, I see the value. Or do you think he'll up his yards? Or both?

Genuinely curious about this. I'm not in as many drafts as I used to be and don't know what you guys are seeing/hearing out there.

*Edit* to add that I'm not saying Witten holds that 110 catch rate. I have him ranked with 96. Some say lower, but if the WRs get nicked up I think Witten will still get his looks to hit around that number.

Graham was apparently in an incredible amount of pain all of last year due to a wrist injury. He had a lot of drops which he attributed to the wrist injury. Graham apparently killed it during offseason workouts, getting ready for his CONTRACT YEAR for the biggest payday of his life. His line of 99rec - 1310yds - 11tds in 2011 should be a baseline for this year.

Witten had a unsustainable reception % last year with an unusually high number of targets last year due to a lack of receiving options in Dallas. I have Witten still going for 85rec - 900yds - 4tds, which in my league is almost 6 pts/game less than what I have Graham getting every week. So IMO, the dropoff between Graham and the #2 TE is about a touchdown every week (until Gronkowski comes back), whatever that means to you in terms of draft position.

Agreed 100% I think most people right now see Graham's 2011 stats as his floor for 2013. Similar to some other players this season all the stars are aligning for Graham this year.

• His Health: He's finally healthy and not in the pain he was in all last season
• Terrible Defense: He'll be on the field a lot cause New Orleans may post the worst defense in the NFL
• Sean Payton: His coach returns and the offense will finally het back on track
• Lack of Other Options: A bunch of guys left this season that Brees trusts. Brees targets are now just Graham, Moore and Sproles. There literally isn't another red zone target besides him. It's very possible he puts up the 1TD/game Gronk like numbers this season.

So yeah 2011 is easy his floor with his ceiling probably being somewhere around 110 Receptions - 1500 yards - 18 TDs

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Contrary to the guys who are preaching RB-RB-RB (or you'll be sorry!!), I'm eager to add Graham in the second round. For the reasons noted above, although I think the ceiling may be set a tad high. Still I think the TE1 this year will consistently outscore the RB12/13. I'm not as worried about the run on RB's, as there are always guys that break through even off the waiver wire. Graham is a solid as they come in the early second round.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I pick 1.9 in a 12 team PPR 6 per TD league, been questioning this all summer

We start QB RB WR TE 2flex

Only 4 bench spots, wouldn't Graham be a huge asset? Then roll with RB 3WRs?

In this setup, here's who I'd take before Graham:

AP

Martin

Charles

Richardson

Calvin

McCoy

Rodgers

Brees

and mayyyybe Dez Bryant

 

[Koya]

To me, this comes down less to the players surrounding him and more with strategy and league set up. To me, it's less about Graham vs. Dez than who can I get at TE later in the draft, and can I develop other positions through the year? I am in one league where way too many teams make the playoffs... in that league perhaps you can take a Gronk because missing a couple games up front won't mean anything. In another league, perhaps RBs dont go as quickly as usual and you ca take Graham and then get a decent back later or stock up on backs with the "hope" that one of them breaks though.

Obviously, going TE in the second will leave you with a hole - if you can fill that spot later or can develop it during the season it might be a calculated strategy that works.

 

[Doug B]

Lack of Other Options: A bunch of guys left this season that Brees trusts. Brees targets are now just Graham, Moore and Sproles. There literally isn't another red zone target besides him.

Someone's going to read this and think they missed some brealing Marques Colston news. He's been held out of the preseason games, but Colston is still on the roster and will start Week 1.

 

[BigSeph]

I picked 15th in a 16-team league, qb/rb/wr/wr/te/d/k with one rb/wr flex spot, 3RR.

Came away with Forte, Graham, MJD as my first 3 picks.

I don't feel too bad about that, but if Dez hadn't gone 14th I would have chosen Dez over Graham.

It all depends who's there and how big your league is.

 

[ebsteelers]

How high would you take graham if catches for a te are 1.5?

Asking everyone

 

[bleachercreacher]

How high would you take graham if catches for a te are 1.5?

Asking everyone

I honestly am considering it at 2, considering Peterson is gone.

 

[Short Corner]

To those who don't think there is much drop off, (Fantasy Focus stat) if you remove Gronk, Graham has outscored the next TE by 30% over the past two seasons. Compare that to other positions where the top guy is outscoring number 2 by 2-3%. So when you look at his VBD, you have to factor in that he is killing the field, not just your base line guy.

---Not sure what the exact numbers were but you get the point. Just food for thought.