Jonathan Stewart 2011/Dynasty Outlook (1 Viewer)

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

I have seen a lot of variation in his ranks, all the way from #7 overall RB to the #26 RB. What can we expect from him moving forward? I have always been high on Stewart and I own him in a dynasty league, but I am not counting on him as my #1 or even #2 RB. Am I selling him short?

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

I think you would be wise to not count on him as a 1 or 2. What makes anyone think he will be any higher barring DW leaving? With the addition of Mike Goodson and a new staff, and either a weak or rookie QB I'd let others over rank him again. I love this guy as I always avoid him and let others suffer the frustrating disappointment he provides year after year.

 

[Q-Bert]

I think you're selling him short. Assuming he is starting I think he is a solid number 1.

 

[Boom Switch]

I think you're selling him short. Assuming he is starting I think he is a solid number 1.

He's not starting if Deangelo ends up back in Carolina. He's sharing then, how sweet....

 

[Sabertooth]

He might be sharing anyway. I went and got him last year with the hopes of Deangelo hitting the road. What we need to see now is how the new coaching staff uses their backs. To be honest, he's a total wildcard.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

I think you're selling him short. Assuming he is starting I think he is a solid number 1.

He's not starting if Deangelo ends up back in Carolina. He's sharing then, how sweet....

I don't think DeAngelo will be back in Carolina. They do have faith in Stewart and Goodsen......so why would they spend top dollar to keep DeAngelo when they could spend it elsewhere?I think there are two bigger concerns: 1) Can Stewart stay healthy? He hasn't made it through a season without some type of leg/foot injury so far (achilles, etc). 2) He plays for a poor team. I don't think Jimmy Clausen is the immediate or long term answer at QB, so if the Panthers have no pass attack it will be easy to gang up defensively on Stewart/Goodsen.

Right now, I'd count on Stewart as a solid reserve RB/ RB #3 with the potential to hit the lottery as a #1.

 

[meanjoegreen]

I think you're selling him short. Assuming he is starting I think he is a solid number 1.

He's not starting if Deangelo ends up back in Carolina. He's sharing then, how sweet....

I don't think DeAngelo will be back in Carolina. They do have faith in Stewart and Goodsen......so why would they spend top dollar to keep DeAngelo when they could spend it elsewhere?I think there are two bigger concerns: 1) Can Stewart stay healthy? He hasn't made it through a season without some type of leg/foot injury so far (achilles, etc). 2) He plays for a poor team. I don't think Jimmy Clausen is the immediate or long term answer at QB, so if the Panthers have no pass attack it will be easy to gang up defensively on Stewart/Goodsen.

Right now, I'd count on Stewart as a solid reserve RB/ RB #3 with the potential to hit the lottery as a #1.

How many NFL regular season games has Stewart missed due to injury? How many running backs usually have some type of injury at least once during the season? Carolina is a poor team as in they aren't good, or they have no money? Carolina's new coach might not think Clausen is the answer either.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

I think you're selling him short. Assuming he is starting I think he is a solid number 1.

He's not starting if Deangelo ends up back in Carolina. He's sharing then, how sweet....

I don't think DeAngelo will be back in Carolina. They do have faith in Stewart and Goodsen......so why would they spend top dollar to keep DeAngelo when they could spend it elsewhere?I think there are two bigger concerns: 1) Can Stewart stay healthy? He hasn't made it through a season without some type of leg/foot injury so far (achilles, etc). 2) He plays for a poor team. I don't think Jimmy Clausen is the immediate or long term answer at QB, so if the Panthers have no pass attack it will be easy to gang up defensively on Stewart/Goodsen.

Right now, I'd count on Stewart as a solid reserve RB/ RB #3 with the potential to hit the lottery as a #1.

How many NFL regular season games has Stewart missed due to injury? How many running backs usually have some type of injury at least once during the season? Carolina is a poor team as in they aren't good, or they have no money? Carolina's new coach might not think Clausen is the answer either.

You are right, many RB's miss games due due to injury....but in Stewart's case he has never really been 100% since entering the NFL. He's even stated so himself. As for the "poor" comment......I am not referring to finances.....I thought that was fairly clear, but I digress........perhaps the better word would be "bad" team. A team that needs more than just one or two pieces.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

I think he'll be a top 15 back. That being said... You won't be able to "steal" him in any drafts, because he DID play well last year when given the starting job, and the hype train on him will drive him into the late 3rd early 4th round... which is probably fair value for him anyway. Right now, in march, his ADP is early 6th round... but if inevitably DeAngelo is sent packing, expect Stewart's ADP to skyrocket.

As far as his injury issues, I don't see him as great an injury risk as Gore, MJD, DMC, Bradshaw, Best, or Moreno... and all these backs will likely be taken ahead of him. I truly think he has as much upside as any of the above backs, I like him more than Moreno, Bradshaw and Best...

If you go RB1, WR1, BPA, in the first 3 rounds, and can get him in the 4th as your RB 2 this fall, I think you've got yourself a solid foundation.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't think Jimmy Clausen is the immediate or long term answer at QB, so if the Panthers have no pass attack it will be easy to gang up defensively on Stewart/Goodsen.

For goodness sake, can we just stop this already?The vast majority of top FF running backs the last few years have come from teams with poor passing attacks. This whole theory is major guppy territory at this point. Yeah, it sounds like it makes logical sense, but it has little effect in practice. It's all just buzzwords.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I don't think Jimmy Clausen is the immediate or long term answer at QB, so if the Panthers have no pass attack it will be easy to gang up defensively on Stewart/Goodsen.

For goodness sake, can we just stop this already?The vast majority of top FF running backs the last few years have come from teams with poor passing attacks. This whole theory is major guppy territory at this point. Yeah, it sounds like it makes logical sense, but it has little effect in practice. It's all just buzzwords.

Jamal Lewis ran for 2066 with Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright as his quarterbacks

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Draft away fellas..I bank on it every year, both figuratively and literally

 

[doowain]

Stewart is interesting to me this offseason. He's been overdrafted and overvalued the past few years, consistently going in the 1st round of Dynasty Startups.

He's now being undervalued and abandoned by a lot of owners. That puzzles me. Barring a surprising resigning of Deangelo, he will finally be the man in Carolina. Why give up on him now that he will be in the position to be the guy you drafted him to be?

I've been able to buy him fairly cheap in a couple leagues over the last month. I say, if you can get him at 3rd/4th round value, BUY. If the owner is still wanting 1st round value for him, STAY AWAY. That leaves you almost no room for error.

 

[Shutout]

I've never been much of a fan of his (he is always an overlooked player by me), but I think when I look at it without bias, I can build a pretty good case for him this year:

-Its unlikely Carolina Pays DWIL. They don't usually do it and they have way too many needs. The door is open.

-The injury that started his career was a toe. The ones he has had are all pretty typical and not severe ones for RBs (no multiple ACL tears, etc).

-The new staff will continue to play defense and they almost have to improve. That should lend them to running a lot and the Panthers have not been a great team the past few years, but even in mediocrity, have had some great RB FF performances. Opportuntiy is there.

-JSTEW will be 24 this month. There are very few backs that young that have already flashed brillance that you could go with over him. If you're rolling the dice, i like the known in him more than almost anyone his age.

-he can do it all and that's something a team trying to find a new and workable identity can rely on (use a lot).

With the job in hand and good health, I really don't see how we might not be talking about him as this year's Ray Rice type potential. this could be the beginning of a GOOD handful of years for a back like him; young, hungry, talented.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As a Stewart owner I was a little upset to learn that if there is no CBA reached (and the owners are forced to end the lockout by the Courts) that the season will go foward as an uncapped year with the RFA tenders considered viable - meaning that Williams could now be back under his RFA tender. Stewart owners have to hope that Carolina can/will trade him if this happens.

 

[Trump Tight]

As a Stewart owner I was a little upset to learn that if there is no CBA reached (and the owners are forced to end the lockout by the Courts) that the season will go foward as an uncapped year with the RFA tenders considered viable - meaning that Williams could now be back under his RFA tender. Stewart owners have to hope that Carolina can/will trade him if this happens.

Do you have a link for this? It runs against what I understood, that being the players would challenge RFA tags under anti-trust law. RFA is a compensation limit that is only in place because of the CBA. Without the CBA, the RFA tag is a measure that I don't think the courts will find viable. Where did you get this?

 

[Shutout]

As a Stewart owner I was a little upset to learn that if there is no CBA reached (and the owners are forced to end the lockout by the Courts) that the season will go foward as an uncapped year with the RFA tenders considered viable - meaning that Williams could now be back under his RFA tender. Stewart owners have to hope that Carolina can/will trade him if this happens.

Do you have a link for this? It runs against what I understood, that being the players would challenge RFA tags under anti-trust law. RFA is a compensation limit that is only in place because of the CBA. Without the CBA, the RFA tag is a measure that I don't think the courts will find viable. Where did you get this?

I believe you are right. I understood this to be a tactic teams were employing as a cover all but in reality did not expect it to stick once the new deal gets worked out. Either way, it worries me very little in this case. Carolina has many other things they need to spend their money on and aren't usually known to spend a lot on players. Plus, they actually have depth at this position. For them to try to keep all their guys would be like what the Bills did drafting Spiller last year despite ahving so many needs all over the place. Surely the Panthers wouldn't be that dumb...and if they were then perhaps at worst it ends up like Lynch, where the Panthers end up, like the Bills, realising they need to make a trade.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As a Stewart owner I was a little upset to learn that if there is no CBA reached (and the owners are forced to end the lockout by the Courts) that the season will go foward as an uncapped year with the RFA tenders considered viable - meaning that Williams could now be back under his RFA tender. Stewart owners have to hope that Carolina can/will trade him if this happens.

Do you have a link for this? It runs against what I understood, that being the players would challenge RFA tags under anti-trust law. RFA is a compensation limit that is only in place because of the CBA. Without the CBA, the RFA tag is a measure that I don't think the courts will find viable. Where did you get this?

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/1813/philip-rivers

Citing both players and owners sources, the Washington Post reports that the 2011 NFL season would likely be played with no salary cap if the players succeed in ending the owners' lockout.The system would reportedly be similar to how the 2010 season was played, with all players who were tendered as restricted free agents, and franchise and transition tagged continuing on their one-year contracts. Thus, all those RFA tenders that were assigned in late February would be upheld. The NFL would reportedly stay uncapped because the system in place "might have a better chance of withstanding an antitrust challenge by the players." The union already agreed to these rules once. The players expect a court ruling on the injunction of the lockout "within three to four weeks."

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Stewart is interesting to me this offseason. He's been overdrafted and overvalued the past few years, consistently going in the 1st round of Dynasty Startups. He's now being undervalued and abandoned by a lot of owners. That puzzles me. Barring a surprising resigning of Deangelo, he will finally be the man in Carolina. Why give up on him now that he will be in the position to be the guy you drafted him to be?

Because things have changed in the meantime.Two years ago he was a guy in the best rushing situation in football, who exploded every time he stepped onto the field, who was being held back *only* by another great RB being on his team.Now, he's no longer in the mecha of FF rushing situations, he's had lingering injuries throughout his career, and worse yet we finally got to see him with that other stud RB out of his way, and he was completely pedestrian (612 yards and 1 TD in 8 games with DeAngelo out of the picture).I'm not saying bail on him, as I like him personally, but it's completely reasonable to think that some of the folks who though DeAngelo was the only thing stopping him from being a 2000/20 guy are thinking a bit differently after last season.

 

[Patoons]

Two years ago he was a guy in the best rushing situation in football, who exploded every time he stepped onto the field, who was being held back *only* by another great RB being on his team.

Situations change, but talent doesn't. Stewart didn't benefit at all from last year's situation with Clausen and the like at QB. Team's just stacked 8 in the box and went to town. Things can easily flip back in the near term with the new coaching staff and a top pick that will potentially be devoted to a top QB or WR. If you can get Stewart undervalued now, I'd absolutely go for it he's still one of the more talented backs in the league. We may be signing a different tune with him this time next year if the season plays on and the new regime puts their mark on the offense. It can only get better.

 

[bigern1000]

Two years ago he was a guy in the best rushing situation in football, who exploded every time he stepped onto the field, who was being held back *only* by another great RB being on his team.

Situations change, but talent doesn't. Stewart didn't benefit at all from last year's situation with Clausen and the like at QB. Team's just stacked 8 in the box and went to town. Things can easily flip back in the near term with the new coaching staff and a top pick that will potentially be devoted to a top QB or WR. If you can get Stewart undervalued now, I'd absolutely go for it he's still one of the more talented backs in the league. We may be signing a different tune with him this time next year if the season plays on and the new regime puts their mark on the offense. It can only get better.

Primarily my reasoning for grabbing him at 2.08 in BBV as my RB1...

 

[The Dynasty]

I love Stewart at the price you can get him right now. I expect DeAngelo to leave and I don't quite understand why people assume the carries split between Williams and Stewart to remain mostly unchanged with Stewart/Goodson. This isn't the same coaching staff from the past few years. The new offensive coordinator, Rob Chudzinski, was the OC for Cleveland the two years Jamal Lewis was racking up yards there. Chudzinski ran an average of 425 (Carolina had 429 rushing attempts last year) run plays his two years in Cleveland with the main back receiving 68% of those carries. It's a relatively small sample size but he seems to favor using one back mostly. And let's not forget that Stewart is no bum. He was the 13th overall pick in 08 and has averaged 4.7 ypc in his three years. I think the OC doesn't use Stewart quite as much as he used Lewis in Cleveland so I'll only give him 60% of the carries. Also, I think Stewart scoring only two touchdowns last year was an anomaly as he scored ten in each of his first two years. The only thing holding him back is his lack of a receiving game.

So that equates to 425 rushing plays * .6 = 255 carries * 4.7 ypc = 1198 yds 9 TDs 22 receptions 150 yds 1 TD

As long as you're not in a PPR league, those numbers should put him right around the bottom of the top 10, excellent value I think.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How many NFL regular season games has Stewart missed due to injury?

2. I'm sure that surprises all the people that like to claim he's always "hurt".

 

[Clifford]

Stewart is an enigma to me. Frankly I have never liked him that much, and was kinda pissed when the Cats took him when DeAngelo had just shown the world what he can do.

Last year sums up how I feel about him pretty well. In the first 8 weeks he was abysmal, though much of that is on the offense and not exclusively him. Still, he had some simply unforgivable numbers during that stretch:

@ NYG L 18-31 5 12 2.4

CIN L 7-20 8 13 1.6

@ NOR L 14-16 7 21 3.0

SFO W 23-20 14 29 2.1

@ STL L 10-20 14 30 2.1

those are the worst of that stretch. But averaging 2.1 yards a carry against two mediocre is pretty much a headscratcher when people are calling him a "stud" or claiming that the problem has always been splitting carries. There's just no excuse for that if you are a good running back.

However, in typical fashion, he exploded after returning from injury

@ CLE L 23-24 12 98 8.2

@ SEA L 14-31 21 92 4.4

ATL L 10-31 18 133 7.4

ARI W 19-12 27 137 5.1

@ PIT L 3-27 18 71 3.9

and then another clunker right at the end

@ ATL L 10-31 13 31 2.4

now, one can't discount being a winless team going into the final week. I doubt anyone on that team was playing to their full potential.

Also, his receiving stats were very pedestrian last year, just 8 catches for 103 yards.

So he's just hard to figure out. Not sure if it's the lingering toe injuries or what.

 

[Catbird]

I think people are greatly over-stating the likelihood that DeAngelo leaves Carolina. He has loved it there. He is not a glory hog and has apparently liked the shared carry role. He doesn't seem to be a huge money guy - I think he will want to be paid but likely won't let getting the last dollar change what makes him happy. He has said several times, including this off season, that he wants to retire a Panther. Unless the new staff doesn't want him at fair value or finds his trade value is worth more to them than his ability, I fear he will stay, whether or not he is deemed a free agent under a new CBA. Owning both, I would love to have him go almost anywhere (if he goes I have 2 starting RBs, if he stays I have none), but other than fantasy guys wanting it to be so, I don't see any strong reason to expect a move. The greed and glory motivations and getting off a losing team that would make most guys want a better situation don't seem to apply.

 

[Clifford]

Catbird pretty prophetic on this one:

Source: Charlotte Observer - Joseph Person

Signing impending free-agent Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is a top priority for the team once the lockout is lifted, although the team still has a younger RB Jonathan Stewart under contract through 2012. Still, after a salary dump in 2010, the team has enough money to sign Williams if they decide that's best.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Williams is not the first player they will look to re-sign once the lockout is lifted, and they'll have to contend with several other teams if he's an unrestricted free agent. The Broncos certainly have interest, and we feel there's a good chance Williams ends up in Denver this year.

 

[Captain Hook]

Even IF Carolina decides they want to resign Williams for what others might be willing to pay.....

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Catbird pretty prophetic on this one:

Source: Charlotte Observer - Joseph Person

Signing impending free-agent Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is a top priority for the team once the lockout is lifted, although the team still has a younger RB Jonathan Stewart under contract through 2012. Still, after a salary dump in 2010, the team has enough money to sign Williams if they decide that's best.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Williams is not the first player they will look to re-sign once the lockout is lifted, and they'll have to contend with several other teams if he's an unrestricted free agent. The Broncos certainly have interest, and we feel there's a good chance Williams ends up in Denver this year.

Not very prophetic when you consider that news came out before his post...

Consider, D-Will has only ever worked under his rookie contract, the coach he loves and who loves him has left, and that same coach is trying to bring him with.. He can achieve that big payday, and reunite with his coach.

It's evident from the rotoworld snip-it quoted above, that others in the industry think there is a "good chance Williams ends up in Denver this year"..

As a Carolina fan, I like D-will of course, But he's 28, and we have 2 good RB's waiting in the wings. I think there are far more important things to spend money on this year..

D-line, D-backfield, O-line depth... WR!! You pick a QB first overall, you have to put a line in front of him, and give him competent targets. I'm not a Newton Fan, but he is the franchise QB now, treat him like one..

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think Stewart gets his shot this season and proves to be top 10 RB material or better..

280 carries, for 1300 yards, and 6 TD's

25 rec, for 280 yards, and 2 TD's

With D-will out of the way, this will be an easy achievement, barring injuries (which you might think is asking a lot) this is his floor.

 

[UnknownCoach]

You are counting your chicken before it hatches. Williams hasnt gone anywhere and has a high chance of returning.

With both Williams and Fox gone, Stewart should then have a career year. It seems like a lot of RBs have had career years with a rookie QB and Stewart would be another name to add to that list if all that happens. If I was a dynasty owner, I'd trade him in 2012 if he exploded in 2011. My long term prospective is modest.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

You are counting your chicken before it hatches. Williams hasnt gone anywhere and has a high chance of returning.With both Williams and Fox gone, Stewart should then have a career year. It seems like a lot of RBs have had career years with a rookie QB and Stewart would be another name to add to that list if all that happens. If I was a dynasty owner, I'd trade him in 2012 if he exploded in 2011. My long term prospective is modest.

I'd say the odds are greater that he's leaving..

 

[gandalas]

I think Stewart gets his shot this season and proves to be top 10 RB material or better..280 carries, for 1300 yards, and 6 TD's25 rec, for 280 yards, and 2 TD'sWith D-will out of the way, this will be an easy achievement, barring injuries (which you might think is asking a lot) this is his floor.

If Stewart DOES get 1300 yards rushing and somehow only ends up with 6 TDs, it would be a travesty. I would hope he would be in double digits or close with that many yards, or he is entering Steven Jackson territory (lack of TD-wise)

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think Stewart gets his shot this season and proves to be top 10 RB material or better..280 carries, for 1300 yards, and 6 TD's25 rec, for 280 yards, and 2 TD'sWith D-will out of the way, this will be an easy achievement, barring injuries (which you might think is asking a lot) this is his floor.

If Stewart DOES get 1300 yards rushing and somehow only ends up with 6 TDs, it would be a travesty. I would hope he would be in double digits or close with that many yards, or he is entering Steven Jackson territory (lack of TD-wise)

You're probably right there..Give him 10-12 TD's