Jonathan Stewart (1 Viewer)

[Turbo]

In today's editions of the Observer, Panthers' running back Jonathan Stewart talks in-depth about the Achilles injury that bothered him all last season and the Jan. 20 surgery he hopes will alleviate the pain he played with in 2009.

For the first time, Stewart explained that he had a bone spur pressing into his left Achilles and also suffered from tendonitis and bursitis.

He wasn't permitted to put weight on his foot for the first month after the operation. For the third consecutive year, he'll miss the Panthers' post-draft minicamp and summer school practices, but expects to begin running in June and to be ready for the start of training camp in late July.

Stewart revealed that when last season began -- after he'd sat out all four exhibitions in the preseason -- he and team trainers thought he might not last more than six games before requriing surgery that would've ended his season. Instead, he played in all 16 games and led the Panthers with 1,133 yards rushing, proving his toughness to coach John Fox, who last week called him "one tough cookie."

Stewart also told us that he and fellow running back DeAngelo Williams will try to do even better than last season, when they became the first pair of teammates in NFL history to rush for 1,100 yards in the same season.

Link: http://blogs.charlotte.com/panthers/2010/0...-problems-.html

 

[Turbo]

My question is, if J Stew played that well with obvious limitations, what can we expect out of a completely healthy season for him? And, if he is completely healthy entering the the 2010 season, does that make DeAngelo more expendable?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Is that icon 2 girls one cup?

 

[Slider]

Can Stewart stay healthy might be the story here.

 

[Bayhawks]

My question is, if J Stew played that well with obvious limitations, what can we expect out of a completely healthy season for him? And, if he is completely healthy entering the the 2010 season, does that make DeAngelo more expendable?

That's actually 2 questions, and both are very good questions.Another question, however, is: Can Stewart have a completely healthy season? He's been dogged by these nagging injuries for both years of his pro career, and at least back to his sophomore year of college. That's 5 consecutive years of being "nicked up." In my opinion, that would seem to make Williams less expendable, not more. Stewart has been battling these injuries for years now, and while he has proved to Fox that he is a "tough cookie," the Panthers, who rely on their running game, can't risk letting Williams go, and then have Stewart sidelined or limited by another nagging injury.

 

[kurtrudder]

This looks like an opportunity to try and spin this into a buy low moment for a possible top 5 dynasty RB.

I'm mean, seriously.....how many RB's out there don't get nicked up. There isn't a starting NFL RB out there who has a "completely healthy season"......the nature of the position just does not allow it. It's not like the guy could be accused of being soft, he was playing through the pain and injuries. His time will come....I say buy low if that's even possible for Stewart....most likely it's not possible but its still worth a shot.

 

[Bayhawks]

This looks like an opportunity to try and spin this into a buy low moment for a possible top 5 dynasty RB. I'm mean, seriously.....how many RB's out there don't get nicked up. There isn't a starting NFL RB out there who has a "completely healthy season"......the nature of the position just does not allow it. It's not like the guy could be accused of being soft, he was playing through the pain and injuries. His time will come....I say buy low if that's even possible for Stewart....most likely it's not possible but its still worth a shot.

You're not being realistic. The Panthers have an offense that is highly run-based. The NFL has moved towards a trend of having 2 RBs (or more) to be competitive, and Fox (& the Panthers) have showed that they like to have (at least) 2 capable RBs to share the load (Davis and Foster, Foster and Williams, now Williams and Stewart). Couple that with the fact that Stewart has NEVER been 100% in the NFL, and that he has a history of nagging injuries dating back to college.How can you possibly look at him as a top 5 dynasty RB? Does he have the talent? Definitely. Is he going to get the carries/receptions/TDs to actually be a top 5 RB? Unlikely-he's not going to get the opportunity unless something drastically changes-Williams leaves AND the Panthers don't draft a replacement to share time with Stewart, Fox leaves or drastically changes his approach to handling his RBs and their carries, or Stewart somehow leaves and ends up in a situation where he is the bell-cow RB, getting 300+ touches. None or those things are likely to happen, IMO.

 

[SSOG]

This looks like an opportunity to try and spin this into a buy low moment for a possible top 5 dynasty RB. I'm mean, seriously.....how many RB's out there don't get nicked up. There isn't a starting NFL RB out there who has a "completely healthy season"......the nature of the position just does not allow it. It's not like the guy could be accused of being soft, he was playing through the pain and injuries. His time will come....I say buy low if that's even possible for Stewart....most likely it's not possible but its still worth a shot.

You're not being realistic. The Panthers have an offense that is highly run-based. The NFL has moved towards a trend of having 2 RBs (or more) to be competitive, and Fox (& the Panthers) have showed that they like to have (at least) 2 capable RBs to share the load (Davis and Foster, Foster and Williams, now Williams and Stewart). Couple that with the fact that Stewart has NEVER been 100% in the NFL, and that he has a history of nagging injuries dating back to college.How can you possibly look at him as a top 5 dynasty RB? Does he have the talent? Definitely. Is he going to get the carries/receptions/TDs to actually be a top 5 RB? Unlikely-he's not going to get the opportunity unless something drastically changes-Williams leaves AND the Panthers don't draft a replacement to share time with Stewart, Fox leaves or drastically changes his approach to handling his RBs and their carries, or Stewart somehow leaves and ends up in a situation where he is the bell-cow RB, getting 300+ touches. None or those things are likely to happen, IMO.

Why won't those things happen? Williams was a top5 RB in a timeshare in 2008. Williams was a borderline top-5 fantasy RB when he was the primary option to begin 2009, and Stewart was an actual top-5 fantasy RB when he was the primary option to end 2009. There's a glut of evidence that Carolina can produce fantasy stud RBs even with a committee. Even if Stewart remains in a committee, he can still be a fantasy stud.Besides, an RB doesn't need to finish in the top 5 every year to be a top 5 dynasty RB. Stewart is a 23 year old uber-talented back in a system that has had no problem cranking out top 5 fantasy RBs even in a timeshare. He's essentially TWO YEARS younger than Shonn Greene. That package of age, talent, and favorable situation is a rare and valuable prize in dynasty.

 

[Tanner9919]

Is that icon 2 girls one cup?

 

[Bayhawks]

Why won't those things happen? Williams was a top5 RB in a timeshare in 2008. Williams was a borderline top-5 fantasy RB when he was the primary option to begin 2009, and Stewart was an actual top-5 fantasy RB when he was the primary option to end 2009. There's a glut of evidence that Carolina can produce fantasy stud RBs even with a committee. Even if Stewart remains in a committee, he can still be a fantasy stud.

I don't disagree with you that there's a glut of evidence that Carolina can produce a stud fantasy RB, however, there's a difference between being a stud RB and a top 5 RB, IMO.You cite Williams being a top 5 RB in 2008 as an example ( I assume) of Carolina being able to produce top 5 RBs in a timeshare. That's the only time Carolina has produced a top 5 RB, and it required an inordinate amount of TDs from Williams to do so. Even so, one top 5 RB doesn't constitute a glut to me.

You also cite Williams being borderline top 5 when he was the primary RB in 2009. At the time of his injury in week 15, Williams was the 7th ranked RB in PPG, and that was while sharing time with Stewart. Again, I believe that there is a significant difference from the RBs who are ranked 1-5, and those ranked 6-10.

Finally, you cite Stewart being a top-5 RB when he was the primary RB at the end of 2009. Stewart was 3rd in fantasy points (among RBs) after Williams' injury. However, he didn't have the competition that a Carolina RB typically has. During those last 3 games, Stewart received 65% of the RB carries for Carolina. During the two years previous (29 games in 2008 & 2009) The RB carries in Carolina were more evenly split: 56% for RB1 (Williams), 39% for RB2 (Stewart), 5% for other RBs. What evidence or reason do you have to believe that this would change if/when Stewart becomes the #1 RB? Why would you assume he would get 65% (or more of the carries) when Fox and Carolina have shown that this is their offensive philosophy?

Can Stewart be a good to great RB? Yes. Does he have the talent to be top 5 RB? Yes. Will he get the opportunities necessary to be a top 5 RB? I doubt it.

Also, when I think top 5 RB, I'm thinking production, not potential. As I posted previously, I think Stewart has top 5 talent and potential, but I doubt he will have the opportunity to put up top 5 production.

Besides, so speaking of production, you have to put Chris Johnson, Peterson, and MJD above him. All 3 of them are the main RBs for their team, and have as much talent/potential as Stewart. You'd have to look at Ray Rice, as well. He is in a RBBC, but his competition for touches isn't as stiff as Stewart's. Rice is clearly the #1 RB in Baltimore, while Stewart is the #2 in Carolina. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson are in the discussion, too (even though they are older, IMO their higher number of touches will negate Stewart's younger age. You also have to consider rookie RBs entering the league. If they are less talented, but in a better situation (with more touches), they should be slotted ahead of Stewart.

Carolina is a run-heavy team that likes to utilize 2 RBs. Fox seems to prefer using his veteran RB as his lead back. Williams is still a Panther, and based on their offensive philosophy, even if they let him go, they will not hand Stewart 80% of the touches, they will get another RB to share carries, limited Stewart to (at max, IMO) 60-70% of the touches. Those things will prevent him from being a top 5 (production-wise) dynasty RB.

 

[az_prof]

Bayhawks, I disagree with you but I can respect your position. If you really think Stewart will either continue to share carries forever in the same sort of time share that he has and/or if you question whether a CAR RB can consistently produce top 5 numbers, then it doesn't make sense to acquire Stewart.

But if you think he is likely to become a regular top 5 RB for the next 5 years, this is probably your last chance to get him for a reasonable price. Before last season people were making similar arguments about Ray Rice, but now you can't really touch him because his value shot through the roof.

 

[SSOG]

I don't disagree with you that there's a glut of evidence that Carolina can produce a stud fantasy RB, however, there's a difference between being a stud RB and a top 5 RB, IMO.You cite Williams being a top 5 RB in 2008 as an example ( I assume) of Carolina being able to produce top 5 RBs in a timeshare. That's the only time Carolina has produced a top 5 RB, and it required an inordinate amount of TDs from Williams to do so. Even so, one top 5 RB doesn't constitute a glut to me. You also cite Williams being borderline top 5 when he was the primary RB in 2009. At the time of his injury in week 15, Williams was the 7th ranked RB in PPG, and that was while sharing time with Stewart. Again, I believe that there is a significant difference from the RBs who are ranked 1-5, and those ranked 6-10.

Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't. Through 14 weeks, DeAngelo was 5 points away from being RB6 and 13 points away from being RB5. Through 12 weeks, DeAngelo was just 6 points out of the top 5. Generally speaking, there was very little difference last season between DeAngelo Williams and "RB5" (although there was a huge difference between Williams and "RB4").

Finally, you cite Stewart being a top-5 RB when he was the primary RB at the end of 2009. Stewart was 3rd in fantasy points (among RBs) after Williams' injury. However, he didn't have the competition that a Carolina RB typically has. During those last 3 games, Stewart received 65% of the RB carries for Carolina. During the two years previous (29 games in 2008 & 2009) The RB carries in Carolina were more evenly split: 56% for RB1 (Williams), 39% for RB2 (Stewart), 5% for other RBs. What evidence or reason do you have to believe that this would change if/when Stewart becomes the #1 RB? Why would you assume he would get 65% (or more of the carries) when Fox and Carolina have shown that this is their offensive philosophy?

So, your argument is that Stewart was a top-5 RB with 65% of the carries, but he wouldn't have been with 56%?56% of the carries is 86% as much as 65% of the carries. Assuming Stewart kept the same production per carry, if you reduced his fantasy point total after Williams' injury to 86% to account for the drop from 65% of the carries to 56%, Stewart would have scored 61.2 fantasy points, which would have ranked him... as RB5 over that span. If Stewart had been as productive with just 56% of the carries instead of 65% of the carries, he still would have been a top 5 RB.

Besides, so speaking of production, you have to put Chris Johnson, Peterson, and MJD above him. All 3 of them are the main RBs for their team, and have as much talent/potential as Stewart. You'd have to look at Ray Rice, as well. He is in a RBBC, but his competition for touches isn't as stiff as Stewart's. Rice is clearly the #1 RB in Baltimore, while Stewart is the #2 in Carolina. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson are in the discussion, too (even though they are older, IMO their higher number of touches will negate Stewart's younger age. You also have to consider rookie RBs entering the league. If they are less talented, but in a better situation (with more touches), they should be slotted ahead of Stewart.Carolina is a run-heavy team that likes to utilize 2 RBs. Fox seems to prefer using his veteran RB as his lead back. Williams is still a Panther, and based on their offensive philosophy, even if they let him go, they will not hand Stewart 80% of the touches, they will get another RB to share carries, limited Stewart to (at max, IMO) 60-70% of the touches. Those things will prevent him from being a top 5 (production-wise) dynasty RB.

I agree that Peterson/MJD/CJ3/Rice all have to be above Stewart in some order or another. Absolutely have to. I *STRONGLY DISAGREE* with the idea that Gore or Jackson have to be above Stewart. For one thing, neither Gore nor Jackson has been more productive than "RB1 Carolina" over the last two seasons. For another, we aren't talking about a year or two age difference- we're talking about a FOUR YEAR AGE DIFFERENCE. For an RB, that's half a career. And above any performance considerations, you have to factor in "exit value". Right now, Gore and Jackson are 27. Next year, they'll be 28. The year after, they'll be 29. Nobody will ever pay decent value for a 29 year old RB, which means even if Gore and Jackson outperform Stewart over the next 2 years (and they probably will), you'll be left with an expiring asset that you can't get any value for, while the Stewart owner will have a young stud just about to enter his prime. Two years from now, Gore/Jackson will be the same age as Clinton Portis (to name another long-time stud whose value is essentially nil right now), while Stewart will be the same age as Shonn Greene (to name another young, highly-coveted RB).And, again, ranking an RB as RB5 doesn't mean I think he's going to be a top 5 RB every year going forward. I have Roddy White as a top 5 dynasty WR even though I question how many times he'll finish as a top 5 fantasy WR, just because of the sheer volume of top 12 finishes I'm expecting from him. Outside of CJ3, MJD, ADP, and Rice, how many RBs out there now do you think will likely produce more career top 12 finishes than Stewart?

 

[SSOG]

Out of curiousity, I took DeAngelo's numbers from weeks 1-14 and added 86% of Stewart's numbers from weeks 15-17 to create some kind of "Carolina RB1 in a timeshare" composite fantasy point total. The result was 238 fantasy points and a fantasy RB5 finish. So that's two straight top-5 fantasy finishes for "Carolina RB1 in a timeshare".

 

[Bayhawks]

Out of curiousity, I took DeAngelo's numbers from weeks 1-14 and added 86% of Stewart's numbers from weeks 15-17 to create some kind of "Carolina RB1 in a timeshare" composite fantasy point total. The result was 238 fantasy points and a fantasy RB5 finish. So that's two straight top-5 fantasy finishes for "Carolina RB1 in a timeshare".

Good point, but the fact is that while the #1 RB "spot" in Carolina can generate top 5 RB numbers, It was (in 2009) reliant on 2 RBs to put up those numbers. Don't you think the fact that Stewart only had about 150 carries going into week 15 played any part in his dominant showing in those last 3 weeks? He was fresh, because he hadn't had the same workload that other RBs had. Perhaps if he had received a larger workload earlier in the year, he might have been as dominant. (He might have, but we don't know for sure).

 

[Bayhawks]

I agree that Peterson/MJD/CJ3/Rice all have to be above Stewart in some order or another. Absolutely have to. I *STRONGLY DISAGREE* with the idea that Gore or Jackson have to be above Stewart. For one thing, neither Gore nor Jackson has been more productive than "RB1 Carolina" over the last two seasons. For another, we aren't talking about a year or two age difference- we're talking about a FOUR YEAR AGE DIFFERENCE. For an RB, that's half a career. And above any performance considerations, you have to factor in "exit value". Right now, Gore and Jackson are 27. Next year, they'll be 28. The year after, they'll be 29. Nobody will ever pay decent value for a 29 year old RB, which means even if Gore and Jackson outperform Stewart over the next 2 years (and they probably will), you'll be left with an expiring asset that you can't get any value for, while the Stewart owner will have a young stud just about to enter his prime. Two years from now, Gore/Jackson will be the same age as Clinton Portis (to name another long-time stud whose value is essentially nil right now), while Stewart will be the same age as Shonn Greene (to name another young, highly-coveted RB).

I understand where you are coming from, but IMO, you have to look at the opportunity. You are basing (I believe) your position of Stewart as a top 5 Dynasty RB on the belief that he will get the lions share of carries in Carolina in the next few years, and that when he gets those carries, he will stay healthy, and put up the same kind of numbers (YPC, TDs per touch, etc) as he is now.I don't believe he will (and that's where we primarily disagree). I have doubts about his ability to stay healthy with more work, since he has been dinged up and battling nagging injuries with limited work the last few years. I also feel that Williams will be around in Carolina for at least 3 more years, limited Stewart's opportunity.