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Jonathan Taylor vs. NE Week 15. (1 Viewer)

Gottabesweet

Gottabesweet

Footballguy
Obviously not sitting him and nobody probably should.
 

Is anyone else surprised to see Taylor projections at his year average 24-25 PPG? RB1

Bellichick generally decides to take away what you do best and that would be Taylor.  I think 60-75% would be a fair projection. 

The Patriots rank second in run defense win rate and the worst game they gave up was early in the season Kamara 89 yards and a receiving TD. 
 

 
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Gottabesweet said:
Obviously not sitting him and nobody probably should.
 

Is anyone else surprised to see Taylor projects at his year average 24-25 PPG? RB1

Bellichick generally decides to take away what you do best and that would be Taylor.  I think 60-75% would be a fair projection. 

The Patriots rank second in run defense win rate and the worst game they gave up was early in the season Kamara 89 yards and a receiving TD. 
 
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Feel the same as you but he’s in all lineups so all you can do is watch! 

 
Timmay said:
Never sit your studs. 
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what if you have too many studs?  I am in a SF where I can only play two RB's.  I have Taylor, Mixon, Najee.  Who sits?  They are all top 5 scoring RB's in our system.  Been struggling with this all year.  This week I may be ok since Lamar is hurt so I can roll all three out

 
Two games ago NE got gashed by the Titans WITHOUT Henry to the tune of 270 rushing yards. Hilliard had 12-131-1 rushing and Foreman had 19-109-0. Not sure lumping the two of them together is a sound practice, but the two combined produced 31-240-1. That being said, the Pats never trailed in that game, so in some ways TEN was doing the Pats a favor by running time off the clock for them.

I think NE will try to their best to neutralize Taylor and stack the line, set the edge, and force him to run inside. Of course, that is easier said than done. IMO, NE is fine with the Colts putting the game in Wentz' hands. Generally speaking, it usually takes a few starts against NE before QBs get a feel for what NE does defensively. In his only game against NE so far, Wentz had 214-1-0 with a 74 QB rating. But he was sacked 5 times, fumbled twice, and lost possession on one of those. I think the Pats would be perfectly fine with that line if that included limiting Taylor to around 100 yards. Again, it sounds easy enough . . . not sure how realistic that is.

 
Toughest matchup of the year but you have to start him.

And I think it is fair to suggest that the Colts have the best offensive line in the league by a good margin.  So it's not like there is not hope.

 
Chaka said:
Toughest matchup of the year but you have to start him.

And I think it is fair to suggest that the Colts have the best offensive line in the league by a good margin.  So it's not like there is not hope.
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PFF has them ranked 11th this year so far. LINK

 
Anarchy99 said:
PFF has them ranked 11th this year so far. LINK
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PFF grades all the lineman who have started and it looks like it is a season long grade too.

"...the starting five is among the best in the league when healthy. Only recently has Indianapolis been able to enjoy that reality."

The starting five is healthy this week.

 
Since the infamous 4th and 2 game when NE lost to Peyton Manning in 2009, the Pats are 8-0 against the Colts. In those games, the average score has been 40-22. Yes, I am aware that none of those games or outcomes have any bearing on what will happen on Saturday, but the Pats have not been phased by the Colts for a long time. At this point, there probably aren't a lot of players remaining from those teams.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Since the infamous 4th and 2 game when NE lost to Peyton Manning in 2009, the Pats are 8-0 against the Colts. In those games, the average score has been 40-22. Yes, I am aware that none of those games or outcomes have any bearing on what will happen on Saturday, but the Pats have not been phased by the Colts for a long time. At this point, there probably aren't a lot of players remaining from those teams.
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Still a coach or two in New England that might remember them

 
Colts record with Taylor getting 100 rushing yards over his career: 10-0. With 80 rushing yards: 13-1. Under 80 yards: 5-11. With 18+ carries: 9-2. Under 18 carries: 9-10.
IMO, the game script will dictate how much the Colts can run Taylor. The team that can hold onto the football without turning it over will have a huge advantage. IND ranks #1 in turnover differential and NE ranks #3. But NE in their winning streak is +13 turnovers vs. IND +6 over the same time.

NE will try to stop Taylor on first down and force IND into 2nd and 3rd and long. I think they have enough wrinkles defensively to give Wentz trouble. If the game turns into a game of strategy, I would take BB vs. just about anybody in a chess match.

I know the Colts players have been saying they will be ready and can shut down the NE running game. I think BB loves having people think Mac can't throw downfield and they don't trust him. The rope a dope is coming . . . whether it be now or as the season progresses. I guarantee they have all sorts of wrinkles all queued up in the passing game. They just haven't shown it yet or put it on film. It's impossible for defenses to know what's coming on plays that no one has seen before. The only questions will be can Jones execute the new plays, can he play in high pressure games, and can he lead them back from a deficit. 

Teams starting rookie QBs this season are 16-37. The Patriots are 9-4 with Mac Jones and all other teams are 7-33.

 
BB and the Pats have won 8 in a row against the Colts going back to 2010. They could certainly find a way to shut down Taylor and make it 9 in a row.

However, I'm going all-in on Taylor in this game and think he will have an amazing game.

 
I was most impressed by his ability to get an extra yard or two on many of his runs, they had a real influence on the momentum of this game when the Colts got off to that great start.

 
Anarchy99 said:
NE did well until that last play. He was at 28 carries and 103 yards. That’s a 3.6 ypc. That’s not how it turned out, but he would have had a ho hum fantasy week without the breakaway score. 
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I  understand his expectations are inflated at this point, but I’m not really sure how many RBs this year would be just ho hum with 100 yards.  And from a fantasy perspective, it really doesn’t matter how many carries it takes to get there. And the “take away his one long carry” argument is the most tired one in this hobby. He did awesome. 

 
Ghoti said:
I  understand his expectations are inflated at this point, but I’m not really sure how many RBs this year would be just ho hum with 100 yards.  And from a fantasy perspective, it really doesn’t matter how many carries it takes to get there. And the “take away his one long carry” argument is the most tired one in this hobby. He did awesome. 
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I didn’t say he had a bad game, but what I said would be accurate. Without that run, Taylor would have had 10 fantasy points (up until then) for a guy that has averaged 24 per game. Sure, he would have had a few more carries. So yeah. 10 points vs. 24 would have been ho hum. 

My other point was that NE played Taylor pretty well up until then. Holding him to a 3.6 ypc average would have been excellent. But it didn’t end up that way. That one jump cut was phenomenal. Hats off to him, as that one move ended the game. 

 
TwinTurbo said:
BB and the Pats have won 8 in a row against the Colts going back to 2010. They could certainly find a way to shut down Taylor and make it 9 in a row.

However, I'm going all-in on Taylor in this game and think he will have an amazing game.
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I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I didn’t say he had a bad game, but what I said would be accurate. Without that run, Taylor would have had 10 fantasy points (up until then) for a guy that has averaged 24 per game. Sure, he would have had a few more carries. So yeah. 10 points vs. 24 would have been ho hum. 

My other point was that NE played Taylor pretty well up until then. Holding him to a 3.6 ypc average would have been excellent. But it didn’t end up that way. That one jump cut was phenomenal. Hats off to him, as that one move ended the game. 
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I’m not one to really get into these things but that is a big part of Taylor’s game to be fair. He seemingly rips off a monster TD run every game. 

 
Loipz said:
I’m not one to really get into these things but that is a big part of Taylor’s game to be fair. He seemingly rips off a monster TD run every game. 
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This is a really good point. Part of his fantasy prowess this year comes from taking long runs to the hizzouse. Guy is everything that one thought he might be when coming out of school. Tough runner, big, breakaway threat. 

 
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rockaction said:
This is a really good point. Part of his fantasy prowess this year comes from taking long runs to the hizzouse. Guy is everything that one thought he might be when coming out of school. Tough runner, big, breakaway threat. 
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Yes, big plays are a part of his game.  I’m not a fan of the analysis that if you take away the great plays from a great player, they wouldn’t be great. Well, yeah. The Pats sold their souls to stop him last night and they didn’t. 

 
Ghoti said:
I’m not a fan of the analysis that if you take away the great plays from a great player, they wouldn’t be great.
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Nor am I. That run was astounding. They way he set up and stepped around Hightower was something else. 

That said, Anarchy99 did give him credit for a great run, so I won't pile on him too much. 

 
Looks like BB wasn't able to do what he does best and that is to take away the other team's strength.  Perhaps he will if they meet in the playoffs.........maybe not.

 
Loipz said:
I’m not one to really get into these things but that is a big part of Taylor’s game to be fair. He seemingly rips off a monster TD run every game. 
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Exactly, which is why it's so baffling that Reich ever stops feeding him.

 
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rockaction said:
Nor am I. That run was astounding. They way he set up and stepped around Hightower was something else. 

That said, Anarchy99 did give him credit for a great run, so I won't pile on him too much. 
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The Pats mostly contained him for 58 minutes and had done a decent job. NE did a good job of letting the game get away from them, as their special teams allowed 10 points that they normally wouldn’t (blocked punt and offsides on the missed FG).  

Up until the big run, NE had outgained IND about 350 yards to 200. I get it, a game is 60 minutes and we aren’t ever going to exclude plays. I also understand that points matter and yards don’t. The Colts played great and won, the Patriots didn’t play well and lost. It happens. 

My comments on Taylor were mostly for fantasy purposes. Without the big play, he was a couple of minutes away from one of his lower fantasy totals this year. I’m a Taylor owner, so I was glad to tack on another 12 or 13 points like everyone else. Not knocking Taylor at all. He’s been the most productive back the past year it two. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
NE did well until that last play. He was at 28 carries and 103 yards. That’s a 3.6 ypc. That’s not how it turned out, but he would have had a ho hum fantasy week without the breakaway score. 
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Yep, if you take away all of Barry Sanders big plays he's not a HOF'er.

 
JohnnyU said:
Yep, if you take away all of Barry Sanders big plays he's not a HOF'er.
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Why are people picking this apart? I am not fishing for a play in the middle of the second quarter and saying if we eliminate that that one play at some otherwise random time on the clock. 

Had NE held Taylor to 100 yards, 0 receptions, and no TD, that could only be considered a win for the defense. But they didn’t. So Taylor ended up with a decent week. Not saying he didn’t have a good game, not saying the Colts didn’t deserve to win, not saying anything to change the results. All I know is, if I had ended up with 10 points from Taylor, I would have been bummed. Just like if I had KC players after 3 quarters, I would have been disappointed if the Chiefs offense didn’t go nuts down the stretch. But they did, and Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce owners got to reap the rewards. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Why are people picking this apart? 
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I think it's not you, it's that general sentiment where you subtract a play out and the day is normal. I think that the quality of the run mixed with the critical juncture of the game makes this one a little more easier to attack. It was such a good run at such a crucial time that to separate it out seems...

I don't know. Like less than a stellar analytical tool to use. That's all. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
The Pats mostly contained him for 58 minutes and had done a decent job. NE did a good job of letting the game get away from them, as their special teams allowed 10 points that they normally wouldn’t (blocked punt and offsides on the missed FG).  

Up until the big run, NE had outgained IND about 350 yards to 200. I get it, a game is 60 minutes and we aren’t ever going to exclude plays. I also understand that points matter and yards don’t. The Colts played great and won, the Patriots didn’t play well and lost. It happens. 

My comments on Taylor were mostly for fantasy purposes. Without the big play, he was a couple of minutes away from one of his lower fantasy totals this year. I’m a Taylor owner, so I was glad to tack on another 12 or 13 points like everyone else. Not knocking Taylor at all. He’s been the most productive back the past year it two. 
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:laughing emoji like button:

 
rockaction said:
I think it's not you, it's that general sentiment where you subtract a play out and the day is normal. I think that the quality of the run mixed with the critical juncture of the game makes this one a little more easier to attack. It was such a good run at such a crucial time that to separate it out seems...

I don't know. Like less than a stellar analytical tool to use. That's all. 
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Yes, this is it. If you go back to your original point, it appears as if you are trying hard to praise the Pats defense of Taylor, especially by taking away his big play. I’ll argue that the same exact game plan that leads to a 3.6 ypc also leads to 67 yards TDs. When you stack the line with 10 guys, you are likely going to limit the number of yards on an average play. But when a great player breaks through to the second level and there’s nobody back there to defend because they are all stacking the line, you are going to see what happened last night. And if you’ve watched Indy games this year, the same thing has happened often.

I’m not looking to pile on, I’m trying to point out you can’t talk about how well the Pats defense did by taking away the big play, because the big play is a direct result of the defense Taylor was facing.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The Pats mostly contained him for 58 minutes and had done a decent job. NE did a good job of letting the game get away from them, as their special teams allowed 10 points that they normally wouldn’t (blocked punt and offsides on the missed FG).  

Up until the big run, NE had outgained IND about 350 yards to 200. I get it, a game is 60 minutes and we aren’t ever going to exclude plays. I also understand that points matter and yards don’t. The Colts played great and won, the Patriots didn’t play well and lost. It happens. 

My comments on Taylor were mostly for fantasy purposes. Without the big play, he was a couple of minutes away from one of his lower fantasy totals this year. I’m a Taylor owner, so I was glad to tack on another 12 or 13 points like everyone else. Not knocking Taylor at all. He’s been the most productive back the past year it two. 
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It goes both ways though- I'd argue that at least some of the reason why they did a decent job against him up until then was precisely because the game got away from them. It's a heck of a lot easier to contain a RB when you know a run is coming every time, and there was zero reason for the Colts to do anything but hand him the ball. If the game would have been more competitive and the Pats had to respect the passing game they may not have contained him as well earlier. Zero targets as well, again because they didn't have to.

 
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humpback said:
It goes both ways though- I'd argue that at least some of the reason why they did a decent job against him up until then was precisely because the game got away from them. It's a heck of a lot easier to contain a RB when you know a run is coming every time, and there was zero reason for the Colts to do anything but hand him the ball. If the game would have been more competitive and the Pats had to respect the passing game they may not have contained him as well earlier. Zero targets as well, again because they didn't have to.
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Similarly, in a “regular” defense instead of 10 guys on the line at the end of the game desperate to get the ball back, the same play call likely doesn’t go for a TD. I get that IND was content to be conservative. They were likely going to win anyway, but had NE stuffed that play it would have been 3rd down with 2:00 left. If NE stopped them, they stood a slim chance to get a FG. But we only know what happened not what could have happened. Interesting the IND beat NE the same way NE beat BUF. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Similarly, in a “regular” defense instead of 10 guys on the line at the end of the game desperate to get the ball back, the same play call likely doesn’t go for a TD. I get that IND was content to be conservative. They were likely going to win anyway, but had NE stuffed that play it would have been 3rd down with 2:00 left. If NE stopped them, they stood a slim chance to get a FG. But we only know what happened not what could have happened. Interesting the IND beat NE the same way NE beat BUF. 
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Similarly, they may not have called the same play if the circumstances were different. I agree that we only know what happened not what could have happened, which is why it's pretty silly to say "without the big play"- the play happened.

My point was that you can't really argue that the circumstances contributed to the big play without also acknowledging that those same circumstances also contributed to them keeping him somewhat in check prior to it. Without the blocked punt TD for instance, maybe he dominates that drive and scores a TD? If Collins has a pick 6, maybe Indy gets more aggressive with their play calling and tries to score more?

 
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Skipdog77 said:
I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. 
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I just really felt the Pats D is a bit overrated. It reminds me of 2019 when they dominated some historically bad teams and then lost in the wildcard game. BB is doing a great job as usual with this team but nobody else stopped Taylor this year and the Pats are not a special defense. 

 
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