Julius Jones/Barber Value (1 Viewer)

[UFO]

I thought I would throw this out for debate.

I think most agree that IF JJ stays healthy on a Parcells team now with TO distracting D's could be huge. I understand the risk. However IF he does go down Barber proved he is very capable.

However if you are able to handcuff Barber would the tandoms value not be better than say a McGahee or Jordan who are on much worse teams where the back up situation is less clear?

I personally would rather be guaranteed having the Cowboys starting RB rather than the Bills or Raiders...thoughts

 

[hankey2mlh]

You forgot one important point: The possibility of having a RBBC in Dallas. That's why I'd rather have a clear-cut starter like Jordan or McGahee.

 

[UFO]

So you really believe if JJ is healthy this will be RBBC? My thoughts are if JJ is healthy he gets 70% + of the carries (20-25 per game) and a majority of the goal line work. Whoever gets the majority of the work will have some nice opportunities that TO and the 2 TE set will open up for running game.

Parcells has NEVER implemented a RBBC and when JJ was healthy last year he received a lions share of the carries in those games.

Please name a game where JJ was healthy and did not receive a majority of work.

If he goes down than MBIII is there who has proven he is capable of handling the load

Jordan's measly 3.9 ypc with all those carries and being healthy for the first 14 games and now a new system. And McGahee on what could likely be one of the worst teams in the league. I just like my chances with being guaranteed the starting RB on a Parcells/TO team

 

[Z-Dog]

20-25 carries per game is 320-410 carries per year. 320 is, imo, the upper range of carries for Jones. I've got him pegged at 290. And that's the difference. 300 carries is more of a floor for McGahee and Jordan.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I'd probably take JJ/Barber as well. Perhaps some sort of committee goes down. However, if you attain both and one goes down, I'd prefer Barber to Ant-train or Crockett/Fargas.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Was projecting for Dallas the other day....

JJones has had consistent health issues (moreso than McGahee or Jordan since they have been in the league). Also some (possibly) telling stats weeks 11-17:

--JJones did get more carries than Barber (2:1 overall)

--inside the 10, BarberIII saw the ratio turn in his favor doubling JJones' carries.

--in 3rd and 4th down situations, Barber had 3.5x more carries, and 2x more targets

Granted, weeks 11-17 '05 is a small sample, but could be a trend of things to come.

That being said, if JJones can make it through the bye week into week 4 healthy and with the starting job still in hand, the schedule certainly is favorable for him to hold onto the job overall. But I expect Barber to see a considerable number of 3rd down touches and hawk some TDs in the RZ.

JJones: 277-1137-5, 36-215-0

BarberIII:155-605-6, 19-116-1

If you are looking for one back to be a stud, I would go elsewhere. But if you are looking to handcuff players, I would choose these 2 over the others mentioned above.

Just my

 

[mbuehner]

Parcells has NEVER implemented a RBBC and when JJ was healthy last year he received a lions share of the carries in those games.

Week 11 JJ 21 carries 92 yards / MB3 15 carries 53 yardsWeek 12 JJ 20 carries 55 yards / MB3 9 carries 28 yardsWeek 13 JJ 23 carries 74 yards / MB3 2 carries 8 yardsWeek 14 JJ 12 carries 41 yards / MB3 15 carries 82 yardsWeek 15 JJ 12 carries 79 yards / MB3 10 carries 30 yardsWeek 16 JJ 34 carries 194 yards/MB3 6 carries 20 yardsWeek 17 JJ 15 carries 35 yards / MB3 6 carries 18 yardsOver the last 7 weeks when both backs were available, Barber was eating into the carries at a rate of about 32%. He was also targetted in the passing game 14 times to JJs 25 during the same period.If you extend those numbers across a full season it ends up looking like:JJ 313 carries for 1307 yards, 57 catches for 304 yardsMB3 144 carries for 549 yards, 23 catches for 178 yardsThat is a RBBC. That being said, Dallas is going to run the ball a whole lot so those numbers are obviously pretty darn attractive even splitting carries. What is going to decide where JJ falls is how often you think he sees the endzone (and assuming you think he can stay healthy). During those last 7 games, both Jones and Barber had 2 TDs each. <For Jones>that translates to less than 5 TDs a season, which is disturbing even if it improves margininally. and TO will certainly eat up red zone touches.Personally I would take Jordan for sure but I might buy into Jones over McGahee if Jones looks to be the man and able to maintain it for the season.

Please name a game where JJ was healthy and did not receive a majority of work.

A majority of the work does not exclude a RBBC. If LJ was only going to get 51% of the carries his standing as #1 would be in trouble.

 

[David Yudkin]

I personally do not think that Owens will have much impact on the running game. Did PHI rushing totals go way up with Owens? (I believe they went backwards). Did Randy Moss make the Vikings running game top shelf (they never were great). Did Moss have a major impact in OAK last year? Yes, Jordan ranked well, but that was mostly due to his receiving numbers and lack of a backup that took away carries. I'd include SSMith in this list (or Muhammad), but the Panthers RB corps was banged up so it's hard to argue one way or another.

 

[TME]

If you extend those numbers across a full season it ends up looking like:

JJ 313 carries for 1307 yards, 57 catches for 304 yards

MB3 144 carries for 549 yards, 23 catches for 178 yards

That is a RBBC.

Lost me here...300+ carries and 1,300 yards and ~70% of the production between the two (which is significantly all Dallas production) does not look like RBBC to me. That's featured back. It just disconnected there for me.

I agree if you look at some of the individual games you listed, the two backs were definately splitting time. But, it also looked like when the running game got good, JJ was getting the rock, and your extrapolated numbers above, do not jive with RBBC.

But, more importantly, I think RBBC is a risk in Dallas and most importatnly JJ has not shown he can stay healthy. Why gamble on that? You know McGahee and Jordan will be featured and get touches and neither has a recent injury bug issue.

 

[mozzy84]

mcghee or jordan for me, jordan by a mile.

 

[mbuehner]

Lost me here...300+ carries and 1,300 yards and ~70% of the production between the two (which is significantly all Dallas production) does not look like RBBC to me. That's featured back. It just disconnected there for me.

Couple of reasons- 1. I dont see JJ getting over 300 carries, and certainly not well over 300. If Dallas is doing well, they will need to rest Jones to have something left come playoffs. My thinking is to scale down the second half of last season by about 10%.2. Exactly the reason you stated- Barber is going to be in the mix and if he is doind well in a particular game where JJ struggles, Barber will get the ball. Thats what makes it a RBBC. A true featured back doesnt have to look over his shoulder game to game.3. Red Zone. Unless there is a change of policy in Dallas, Jones could end up as the 3rd or even 4th red zone option. Touches are great, but without the touchdowns Jones will be badly limited and cant compete with a true featured back. Warrick Dunn put up 4 tds last season on a pretty good rushing team in a similar situation.In those 7 final games last season Barber had 21 carries to Julius Jones 15. TO will want his looks and Whitten isnt going away. McGahee is the only game in his town and Jordan may have Moss to deal with, but he put up 11 red zone tds last season and that wont be forgotten.

 

[Britney Spears]

I have Jones/Barber in a dynasty, and I couldn't get either of those guys for the 2 of them straight up.

The peace of mind of playing only 1 guy is too valuable. Rotating 2 backs is a risk of missing the right one.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

I personally do not think that Owens will have much impact on the running game.  Did PHI rushing totals go way up with Owens?  (I believe they went backwards).  Did Randy Moss make the Vikings running game top shelf (they never were great).  Did Moss have a major impact in OAK last year?  Yes, Jordan ranked well, but that was mostly due to his receiving numbers and lack of a backup that took away carries.  I'd include SSMith in this list (or Muhammad), but the Panthers RB corps was banged up so it's hard to argue one way or another.

i'm not checking the figures, but didn't MIN have some good years statistically in the run game? i'm pretty sure robert smith's breakout season (before he retired prematurely) coincided with moss being on the team... in theory, it makes sense that defenses heavily distracted by likes of moss & cris carter would lead to situation where RB rarely sees 8 in the box... smith was a sprinter at ohio state & had big time speed, which enabled him to exploit some of the big seams that the dangerous WRs afforded him.

 

[MLBrandow]

The reason JJ drops more is because there has even been a whisper here and there that Barber might be pushing him for the starting job...

And whoever wins, wins what? 12-1300 total yards off 60% touches and 8 TDs?

That belongs well down into the fourth or fifth round where the other question marks are.

JJ at mid 2 is bad news.

 

[Gopher State]

RBBC in Dallas in 06 looks like a sure deal. Both are good backs, why wear one down. I could see Barber being the goal line back. JJ is a good value 5/6 round, 2/3/4 round to much risk.

 

[David Yudkin]

I personally do not think that Owens will have much impact on the running game.  Did PHI rushing totals go way up with Owens?  (I believe they went backwards).  Did Randy Moss make the Vikings running game top shelf (they never were great).  Did Moss have a major impact in OAK last year?  Yes, Jordan ranked well, but that was mostly due to his receiving numbers and lack of a backup that took away carries.  I'd include SSMith in this list (or Muhammad), but the Panthers RB corps was banged up so it's hard to argue one way or another.

i'm not checking the figures, but didn't MIN have some good years statistically in the run game? i'm pretty sure robert smith's breakout season (before he retired prematurely) coincided with moss being on the team... in theory, it makes sense that defenses heavily distracted by likes of moss & cris carter would lead to situation where RB rarely sees 8 in the box... smith was a sprinter at ohio state & had big time speed, which enabled him to exploit some of the big seams that the dangerous WRs afforded him.

THere have been 41 teams that had at least one WR that had 1,400 or more receiving yards in a season (a couple had two, but I only considered them as one team). The average rushing total for that team's leading rusher was 1,007 rushing yards. The median was 950 rushing yards.However, the breakdown is a bit interesting, as RBs tended to do really really good, or really really poor--making the "average" a bit useless. The high end was Emmitt Smith in 1995 with 1773 yards (paired with Michael Irvin). The low side was Darick Holmes with 386 in 1998 (paired with Antonio Freeman).

Without listing them all, here are the breakdowns,

2 RB had at least 1,700 rushing yards (out of 41)

2 RB had at least 1,600 rushing yards

7 RB had at least 1,500 rushing yards

9 RB had at least 1,400 rushing yards

10 RB had at least 1,300 rushing yards

13 RB had at least 1,200 rushing yards

16 RB had at least 1,100 rushing yards

19 RB had at least 1,000 rusing yards

23 RB had at least 900 rushing yards

30 RB had at least 800 rusing yards

32 RB had at least 700 rushing yards

34 RB had at least 600 rushing yards

35 RB had at least 500 rushing yards

40 RB had at least 400 rushing yards

41 RB had at least 300 rushing yards

I have nothing to compare this to (ie, how #1 RB did without having a 1,400 yard WR, nor do I have the energy to try to figure that part out.

But it does seem that some of the great offenses (Dal with Emmitt and Irvin, Ind with Harrison and Edge, etc.) did do extremely well. IMO, some of the other teams had a 1,400 yar receiver BECAUSE they did not have someone to run the ball--and that is what's distorting the results. That leaves us with opinion on Julius Jones--is he closer to the Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Clinton Portis class or more toward the average to below average class?

 

[MLBrandow]

I think we'll see close to those upper tier numbers out of the backfield.

Problem is the same though: they will be coming from two guys.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Kevin Jones or Julius Jones?? I'm going KJ.

I fear Barber MUCH more than Calhoun/Bryson. Plus, I think the chance of RBBC in DAL is greater than we think.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

RBBC in Dallas in 06 looks like a sure deal.  Both are good backs, why wear one down.  I could see Barber being the goal line back.  JJ is a good value 5/6 round, 2/3/4 round to much risk.

no way you see julius in round 6 unless it is a four team league...

 

[thecardiackid]

The peace of mind of playing only 1 guy is too valuable. Rotating 2 backs is a risk of missing the right one.

I'll take Jordan or McGahee vs. risking the RBBC, just for this reason.

Maybe it's b/c I drank some of JJ's koolaid last year (predicting 2000 yds... ), and I still have that taste in my mouth. Barber is the potential steal here in rds 7-9 IF JJ ends up hurt again & someone doesn't jump the gun early. W/ Jones' inability to stay healthy (yet), MBIII could be this year's (lower production) version of LJ (lite)

Best case, you've got a redzone (and possibly bigger) vulture looking over your shoulder every Sunday. And I doubt many owners are going to spend a flex on this RBBC if it happens.

That said, JJ *may* start fast and never look back, leaving Barber with scraps and me feeling like an idiot for not drafting him. But potential RBBC (or worse), combined with losing PB'er Larry Allen will cause me to look elsewhere in R2/3 for RB2.

 

[sheetstainer]

Good analysis guys. Julius seems hungrier this yr. What that translates to, who knows. Barring injury, I could see a career yr for him. Even with Barber in the fold.

Between the choices, i would rank it Jordan, Jones, Mcgahee. The lack of qb in Buffalo will hinder Willis again.

 

[crimsonrebel]

I have to agree with Jordan as the clear #1 choice. Hell get the most touches of any of these 3 situations. Why waste 2 roster slots when one will do?

 

[Tom Servo]

I have to agree with Jordan as the clear #1 choice. Hell get the most touches of any of these 3 situations. Why waste 2 roster slots when one will do?

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Good analysis guys. Julius seems hungrier this yr. What that translates to, who knows. Barring injury, I could see a career yr for him. Even with Barber in the fold.

Between the choices, i would rank it Jordan, Jones, Mcgahee. The lack of qb in Buffalo will hinder Willis again.

Whoa! Julius seems hungrier. Hadn't seen that. He's now in my top 5.