Julius Jones - Dynasty (1 Viewer)

[vandelyons]

I suspect a lot of Julius Jones owners in dyasty leagues have been wringing their hands lately. Yes, he's still the starter and the more explosive of the two backs, but MBIII has certainly outshined him from a FF perspective.

Looking forward, what are JJ owners in dynasty leagues planning to do with him?

What is JJ's trade value in a dynasty league these days? Is it reasonable to ask for a lower first round rookie pick.

I've heard that JJ has the right to void his contract after the 2007 season? Can anyone confirm? Does this change your strategy with JJ - do you hold him in hopes that he will become a UFA after the 2007 season?

 

[Da Guru]

You are fretting with good reason.

 

[Magic Man]

Hold, cuz he is still young and a pretty good RB. His value is at an all-time low right now.

 

[Colin Dowling]

He's going to likely hit carear highs in carries and yards as he passes 1k. Considering you likely drafted him in a dynasty after Kevin Jones and Stephen Jackson and possibly Tatum Bell and Chris Perry, I think his value is about in line with his production.

 

[baronson]

his value may be low now, but it can still go lower. i don't know where people get the idea that he's even that good. he's got more speed than barber, sure. but he also goes down to the turf in a swift breeze. even i could arm tackle this guy, and i weigh 200 pounds when i've got 40 pounds of pudding in my napsack.

he's just not that good a RB, in my opinion. he may stick around in dallas because i think parcells likes the way these two compliment one another, but he'll never be a featured guy. and if you're worried this kind of relationship will continue into next year, then you may want to trade him for a similar buy-low guy like chambers or something and see if you can't salvage some value for him.

i think you may even see dallas take a flyer on a late first day RB in the draft. they don't have too many pressing needs, so it wouldn't surprise me if jones had competition to even make the team next year. pure speculation on my part, however.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You need to wait until the offseason (or JJ has another solid game), and then see what you can get from the MBIII owner. I think Jones dynasty value has already passed its peak - it will likely never reach the heights it was at entering 2005. I recommended strongly to sell JJ high at the beginning of 2006 because MBIII was the better back in Dallas.

 

[Da Guru]

He's going to likely hit carear highs in carries and yards as he passes 1k. Considering you likely drafted him in a dynasty after Kevin Jones and Stephen Jackson and possibly Tatum Bell and Chris Perry, I think his value is about in line with his production.

The problem is Jones is losing all the "gravy" 1-2 yards TDs to MBIII. Jones could just as easily punch them in but Barber is going to be the guy.

 

[baronson]

He's going to likely hit carear highs in carries and yards as he passes 1k. Considering you likely drafted him in a dynasty after Kevin Jones and Stephen Jackson and possibly Tatum Bell and Chris Perry, I think his value is about in line with his production.

The problem is Jones is losing all the "gravy" 1-2 yards TDs to MBIII. Jones could just as easily punch them in but Barber is going to be the guy.

no he can't. he's not a guy who can grind out yards the way barber can. god forbid he gets met with a DL or blitzing safety in the backfield, he's toast. barber can at least make a guy miss, or push a guy backwards. jones can't do either.

 

[Da Guru]

He's going to likely hit carear highs in carries and yards as he passes 1k. Considering you likely drafted him in a dynasty after Kevin Jones and Stephen Jackson and possibly Tatum Bell and Chris Perry, I think his value is about in line with his production.

The problem is Jones is losing all the "gravy" 1-2 yards TDs to MBIII. Jones could just as easily punch them in but Barber is going to be the guy.

no he can't. he's not a guy who can grind out yards the way barber can. god forbid he gets met with a DL or blitzing safety in the backfield, he's toast. barber can at least make a guy miss, or push a guy backwards. jones can't do either.

I have MBIII and I don`t have Jones. I have seen a number of Barbers TDs where he just waltzed in untouched. Jones could do that. I agre that jones is a bit soft though.

 

[Ryan_21]

I traded this bum last offseason in my dynasty. I dealt him and my 2nd round rookie pick for the #2 overall rookie pick. I picked Maroney! People thought I was crazy making that deal, but I hate 5'9" injury prone RBs.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

people wrote thomas jones off, too, and JJ has arguably had much more distinguished first three years than his older brother...

i think JJ has two of DAL four highest rushing games ever...

barber is an impressive RB, and he may be the better of the two (not sure if his time starting in place of JJ when injured as a rookie last season was conclusive that he would be the better RB if he got all the carries.)... for a good part of the time JJ has been in DAL he hasn't had the greatest OL in front of him, and it would be interesting to see what he could do behind a better OL...

barber is better able to break tackles and make his own hole, and may indeed be a better OVERALL RB in DAL given that fact and the state of their OL...

if JJ breaks a few more long runs for TDs, he could approach/surpass 1,500+ combined yards & half dozen TDs in 07 (if not this year)... not sure where exactly that would put him in given years, but not too many are counting on him as a RB1, and it could be a decent RB2 (in a 12 man league, if he has upside he could be middle of the pack RB2... maybe higher if he gets another chance elsewhere like his brother... i think thomas was borderline top 10 last season)...

i am a JJ owner in a couple leagues, so sure, the thought has crossed my mind that his value could have peaked... i just don't think his value is that high right now, & since i think he may have some upside (he is having his best year yet in terms of durability, which was one of his biggest knocks coming into 06), he is worth more to me for that than what i think i can get for him...

in a league where i had better RB options, and needed a WR say, and could get approximate fair value, i wouldn't hesitate to move him...

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?

if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...

if a higher number, that could mean more upside...

i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...

off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...

ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)

GB if green is on decline

ATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is better

NYG when tiki retires

OAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few years

DEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success there

BAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on roster

CLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much else

HOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on roster

JAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superior

NYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold

i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...

maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

 

[sib]

I suspect a lot of Julius Jones owners in dyasty leagues have been wringing their hands lately. Yes, he's still the starter and the more explosive of the two backs, but MBIII has certainly outshined him from a FF perspective.

Looking forward, what are JJ owners in dynasty leagues planning to do with him?

What is JJ's trade value in a dynasty league these days? Is it reasonable to ask for a lower first round rookie pick.

I've heard that JJ has the right to void his contract after the 2007 season? Can anyone confirm? Does this change your strategy with JJ - do you hold him in hopes that he will become a UFA after the 2007 season?

Wow, I have to disagree. I watch Dallas pretty extensively since I have Owens, Julius, and MB3 in a dynasty league and while Jones has better speed than Barber, I think Barber is def more explosive than Julius. Barber hits the hole harder, is much harder to bring down than Jones, and has a toughness to him that serves him well in the goalline. It would be nice to see Julius utilized more often in the passing game; I feel he is a little underrated there, but I have to give the edge to Barber as a pass-catcher as well. Overall I think Barber is the more explosive RB; Julius just goes down too easily when he runs.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

everybody concedes MBIII is stronger, tougher runner and better in short yardage and GL...

if he were more explosive, too, than he really would have everything over JJ (except for maybe speed, like you said), and would be more likely to be starter already... some might say parcells is loyal to vets, but at times this year, we weren't sure parcells would be back beyond this season (we still don't, though i think it is looking increasingly likely)... if he thought playing barber most of the time would increase chance of winning, i expect he would have made that move already...

maybe barber will get more carries than he does now, but JJ will have a role while he is there...

i think to have two of highest rushing yardage games in DAL history (and again, it wasn't like he has had the benefit of a great OL during most of his tenure), he must have SOME run skills, though no doubt there are RBs that break tackles better...

 

[Cowboys#1]

barber is slower than my grandmother with no legs

that said he does a lot of things well, however jones did well when he didnt have barber, barber did okay in the games jones was hurt last year (though he did have his share of stinkers).. i think they are best suited to an RBBC at least for now.. though MBIII has been great of late

 

[kilrbzz]

Am I the only one that sees the big picture here? Parcells has had this planned from the beginning. Bill knows neither back is a full load guy. Hell, these days theres fewer and fewer backs of that caliber. He will continue to to use this rotation but as it gets closer to the playoffs I see MB3 getting more and more carries. JJ won't be benched but he will see less carries into the playoffs. Bill clearly thinks MB3 is a better back but knows he can't carry the load. But to have the better back fresh for the playoffs.............priceless!

 

[Riffraff]

Am I the only one that sees the big picture here? Parcells has had this planned from the beginning. Bill knows neither back is a full load guy. Hell, these days theres fewer and fewer backs of that caliber. He will continue to to use this rotation but as it gets closer to the playoffs I see MB3 getting more and more carries. JJ won't be benched but he will see less carries into the playoffs. Bill clearly thinks MB3 is a better back but knows he can't carry the load. But to have the better back fresh for the playoffs.............priceless!

Sort of correct. The fresh back for the NFL play-offs will be JJ.Doesn't help any FF player's play-offs though.

 

[coolnerd]

Am I the only one that sees the big picture here? Parcells has had this planned from the beginning. Bill knows neither back is a full load guy. Hell, these days theres fewer and fewer backs of that caliber. He will continue to to use this rotation but as it gets closer to the playoffs I see MB3 getting more and more carries. JJ won't be benched but he will see less carries into the playoffs. Bill clearly thinks MB3 is a better back but knows he can't carry the load. But to have the better back fresh for the playoffs.............priceless!

You are correct as Parcells has said such over and over in his press conferences. Listening to Parcells, it appears that this situation will remain some form of a RRBC as long as everyone is healthy and under contract. The roles have become clearly defined during this season. The problem for the J. Jones owners is that they are now stuck with literally only getting his rushing yards between the 20s on 1st and 2nd down in the 1st three quarters of a non-blow out game.

 

[perry147]

Am I the only one that sees the big picture here? Parcells has had this planned from the beginning. Bill knows neither back is a full load guy. Hell, these days theres fewer and fewer backs of that caliber. He will continue to to use this rotation but as it gets closer to the playoffs I see MB3 getting more and more carries. JJ won't be benched but he will see less carries into the playoffs. Bill clearly thinks MB3 is a better back but knows he can't carry the load. But to have the better back fresh for the playoffs.............priceless!

You are correct as Parcells has said such over and over in his press conferences. Listening to Parcells, it appears that this situation will remain some form of a RRBC as long as everyone is healthy and under contract. The roles have become clearly defined during this season. The problem for the J. Jones owners is that are now stuck with literally only getting his rushing yards between the 20s on 1st and 2nd down in the 1st three quarters of a non-blow out game.

Solid analysis here.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...if a higher number, that could mean more upside...i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)GB if green is on declineATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is betterNYG when tiki retiresOAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few yearsDEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success thereBAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on rosterCLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much elseHOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on rosterJAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superiorNYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

Bob, I love this angle of looking at a player's dynasty value, especially for QB, which is the most glaring example of a position with less starting quality players than starter slots. That being said, your analysis is leaving out that at least 4 instant starting quality RBs (Peterson, Lynch, Slaton, McFadden) will enter the league in the next two years. That does not even include interesting possible 2007 draft prospects like Hart, Pittman, and Irons and the rest of the sick sophomore RB class right now. I think Julius is destined to stay at the role he is at now or LESS (in this age of RBBC) as many backs more talented than him are due to enter the league soon.

 

[DoctorFantasy]

his value may be low now, but it can still go lower. i don't know where people get the idea that he's even that good. he's got more speed than barber, sure. but he also goes down to the turf in a swift breeze. even i could arm tackle this guy, and i weigh 200 pounds when i've got 40 pounds of pudding in my napsack.he's just not that good a RB, in my opinion. he may stick around in dallas because i think parcells likes the way these two compliment one another, but he'll never be a featured guy. and if you're worried this kind of relationship will continue into next year, then you may want to trade him for a similar buy-low guy like chambers or something and see if you can't salvage some value for him.i think you may even see dallas take a flyer on a late first day RB in the draft. they don't have too many pressing needs, so it wouldn't surprise me if jones had competition to even make the team next year. pure speculation on my part, however.

I have to agree with this assessment. Julius Jones has looked pretty mediocre the past two seasons. For a RB that gets between 250-300 touches, he seems to be a 2-3-4 yard type guy and a cloud of dust. I have not seen a lot of broken tackles from Jones. My observation has been that he doesn't seem to be the type back that can make something out of nothing. Given the quantity of touches in the offense, he is still a decent #3 fantasy back, but I would be worried about his long term prospects based on his performance in the past two seasons coupled with MB3's emergence.

 

[Foosball God]

everybody concedes MBIII is stronger, tougher runner and better in short yardage and GL...if he were more explosive, too, than he really would have everything over JJ (except for maybe speed, like you said), and would be more likely to be starter already... some might say parcells is loyal to vets, but at times this year, we weren't sure parcells would be back beyond this season (we still don't, though i think it is looking increasingly likely)... if he thought playing barber most of the time would increase chance of winning, i expect he would have made that move already...maybe barber will get more carries than he does now, but JJ will have a role while he is there...i think to have two of highest rushing yardage games in DAL history (and again, it wasn't like he has had the benefit of a great OL during most of his tenure), he must have SOME run skills, though no doubt there are RBs that break tackles better...

I tried to trade you MBIII in the spring, but you just wouldn't listen now would you.

 

[Fiddles]

who did you guys take ahead of barber in your rookie drafts?

im sittin pretty with both baby

 

[BigJim®]

Sort of correct. The fresh back for the NFL play-offs will be JJ.

Maybe you are just being sarcastic. I'll assume you are. Getting back to the initial topic (what to do with JJ in dynasty), it is that sort of genuine mentality that makes JJ virtually untradable IMHO. JJ remains untouchable by his owner in my dynasty league, because he's the Dallas starter, because he's had huge rushing performances in the past, because he was a blue chipper coming out of Notre Dame, because he used a #3 rookie pick to get him, blah, blah, blah. Despite the fact that MBIII's gravy role has left JJ a huge question mark, JJ apologists seem perfectly content to believe this is a phase, a Parcell's strategy to keep JJ healthy for some magic carpet ride during FF playoffs, that JJ will go somewhere else and become an every down back, or some similar wishful thinking hocus pocus. Actually JJ could go elsewhere but it's by no means likely that he'll take on a full load anywhere (or stay healthy attempting it) given his history. There will likely always be another MBIII to be wary of. To those apologists I say "enjoy your RB." And for the gent who said MBIII is slower than his grandma, that schtick never gets old for me:

Pre-draft 40 times

JJ: 4.51, 4.47

MBIII: 4.49, 4.48

Pre-draft 20 yard shuttle

JJ: 4.16

MBIII: 4.18

Bottom line, a guy who owns neither RB in a dynasty league should be targetting MBIII hands down, not JJ, as MBIII is 2 years younger and probably remains less expensive to acquire despite being more productive (134 vs. 116 points in my league). A JJ owner should be trying to deal JJ to the apologists mentioned above, or obtaining MBIII as cheaply as he can and pray for change/injury. A guy who owns MBIII should no longer give a rip about trying to get JJ IMHO. Not worth the cost, at all, because you'll likely be starting MBIII over JJ anyway if getting more points vs. less points matters in your scoring system.

 

[baronson]

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...if a higher number, that could mean more upside...i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)GB if green is on declineATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is betterNYG when tiki retiresOAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few yearsDEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success thereBAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on rosterCLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much elseHOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on rosterJAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superiorNYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

sorry, but this is a terrible analysis. i think the premise has merit, but the analysis is pure ####e. julius jones would not start for any of those teams EVER outside of cleveland. houston's def taking a RB in the draft this year, and prob in the first round. the jets will probably draft a RB as well, and if you've somehow forgotten, take a look at the 19 cedric houston and 14 leon washington threads out there. they're both better than julius. lamont jordan signed a long term deal in oakland, he's there for awhile. you completely overlooked a guy named brandon jacobs who is downright nasty like ipecac. denver is not in the business of signing marquee names at RB, they groom guys from within. and last, but not least, norwood is DISGUSTING. there's no way julius should even be allowed in the same locker room with that guy.the point of this thread was (if i remember correctly) should i start thinking about moving julius while he still has an ounce of value. your analysis was predicated on holding the guy for like 4 more years, at which time he'll be 29 with absolutely NO value. that makes no sense.move him now. if barber's not THE guy next year, then someone else with more skill will be brought in to fill jones' role.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

To me the biggest disappointment in JJ is not losing the touches to MB3 (which I sort of expected), but that he has not been hitting any HR's. He plays on a great offense with great weapons, I would have expected a couple of 20, 30, 40 yard TD scampers.

 

[Foosball God]

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...if a higher number, that could mean more upside...i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)GB if green is on declineATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is betterNYG when tiki retiresOAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few yearsDEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success thereBAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on rosterCLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much elseHOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on rosterJAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superiorNYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

sorry, but this is a terrible analysis. i think the premise has merit, but the analysis is pure ####e. julius jones would not start for any of those teams EVER outside of cleveland. houston's def taking a RB in the draft this year, and prob in the first round. the jets will probably draft a RB as well, and if you've somehow forgotten, take a look at the 19 cedric houston and 14 leon washington threads out there. they're both better than julius. lamont jordan signed a long term deal in oakland, he's there for awhile. you completely overlooked a guy named brandon jacobs who is downright nasty like ipecac. denver is not in the business of signing marquee names at RB, they groom guys from within. and last, but not least, norwood is DISGUSTING. there's no way julius should even be allowed in the same locker room with that guy.the point of this thread was (if i remember correctly) should i start thinking about moving julius while he still has an ounce of value. your analysis was predicated on holding the guy for like 4 more years, at which time he'll be 29 with absolutely NO value. that makes no sense.move him now. if barber's not THE guy next year, then someone else with more skill will be brought in to fill jones' role.

OK, tell us how you really feel.

 

[coolnerd]

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...if a higher number, that could mean more upside...i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)GB if green is on declineATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is betterNYG when tiki retiresOAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few yearsDEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success thereBAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on rosterCLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much elseHOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on rosterJAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superiorNYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

sorry, but this is a terrible analysis. i think the premise has merit, but the analysis is pure ####e. julius jones would not start for any of those teams EVER outside of cleveland. houston's def taking a RB in the draft this year, and prob in the first round. the jets will probably draft a RB as well, and if you've somehow forgotten, take a look at the 19 cedric houston and 14 leon washington threads out there. they're both better than julius. lamont jordan signed a long term deal in oakland, he's there for awhile. you completely overlooked a guy named brandon jacobs who is downright nasty like ipecac. denver is not in the business of signing marquee names at RB, they groom guys from within. and last, but not least, norwood is DISGUSTING. there's no way julius should even be allowed in the same locker room with that guy.the point of this thread was (if i remember correctly) should i start thinking about moving julius while he still has an ounce of value. your analysis was predicated on holding the guy for like 4 more years, at which time he'll be 29 with absolutely NO value. that makes no sense.move him now. if barber's not THE guy next year, then someone else with more skill will be brought in to fill jones' role.

OK, tell us how you really feel.

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

 

[baronson]

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

?????read above. the last post i had was admittedly a little pointed, but all others have been very objective and well thought out.

 

[Cowboys#1]

you can spout all the 40 yd times in the world, ive seen these guys every down for 2 and 3 years.. barber does a lot of things as good or better than jones but his speed is 100% NOT ONE OF THEM.

i own neither, dont care who gets the most touches as long as the 'boys keep winning, that said going forward barber, at this time appears to have all the positives going for him while Jones is being relegated to far fewer touches than he is used to

 

[Bob_Magaw]

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...if a higher number, that could mean more upside...i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)GB if green is on declineATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is betterNYG when tiki retiresOAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few yearsDEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success thereBAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on rosterCLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much elseHOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on rosterJAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superiorNYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

sorry, but this is a terrible analysis. i think the premise has merit, but the analysis is pure ####e. julius jones would not start for any of those teams EVER outside of cleveland. houston's def taking a RB in the draft this year, and prob in the first round. the jets will probably draft a RB as well, and if you've somehow forgotten, take a look at the 19 cedric houston and 14 leon washington threads out there. they're both better than julius. lamont jordan signed a long term deal in oakland, he's there for awhile. you completely overlooked a guy named brandon jacobs who is downright nasty like ipecac. denver is not in the business of signing marquee names at RB, they groom guys from within. and last, but not least, norwood is DISGUSTING. there's no way julius should even be allowed in the same locker room with that guy.the point of this thread was (if i remember correctly) should i start thinking about moving julius while he still has an ounce of value. your analysis was predicated on holding the guy for like 4 more years, at which time he'll be 29 with absolutely NO value. that makes no sense.move him now. if barber's not THE guy next year, then someone else with more skill will be brought in to fill jones' role.

i'm pretty sure (& i may start a thread about it), that it would be a contrarian position to think that CLE was only team JJ could start for... EVER BTW is a pretty sensationalized word, and maybe isn't the one you are loking for in the credibility department...you criticized my analysis but offered a lot of speculation and opinion in your case...on the one hand you seem to think HOU will probably take a first round RB, but than say DEN doesn't take marquee RBs... did you forget kubiak came from DEN (terrible analysis )... i haven't seen anything to suggest kubiak is going to break from the system he spent so much time in & is going to all of a sudden start prioritizing RBs with premium picks... maybe, but you haven't made a compelling argument...maybe the jets take a RB... as to houston & washington being better than JJ, imo if JJ was there TODAY he would be starting... the other two have had flashes but i haven't seen anything that made me think they are special... if they were, probably jets wouldn't need to draft a RB... that might be construed as a little contradictory, but i suppose reflects on the fact that you are obviously down on JJ...i mentioned that jordan was in OAK... if he is there for another 1-2 years & looks as bad as he did this year, i'm not sure if they are chained to him for a lot longer than that if team wants to go in a different direction... we can't even predict what al davis will do 5 minutes from now... what makes you think you can in 08-09?i've heard of jacobs, just not convinced he has what it takes to be every down starter... we can all think of guys that looked good with a half dozen carries a game, but again, i'm not sure there is a 100% consensus here at FBG that jacobs absolutely is the guy there & will do well enough to retain his job, we don't know that yet... you may have forgotten that historically there haven't been a lot of 6'4" 265 lb RBs... why do you think that is, and why do you think he will be different... sure he looks good so far, he looks good with 78 carries in 13 games... he runs high &, speaking of nasty, i foresee a lot of nasty body shots in his future... he is fighting the odds to become a feature RB at all, let alone to keep it for a long time...DEN doesn't sign marquee guys... well which is it... is JJ good or not? if not, it sounds like he isn't a marquee guy... how can he be a marquee guy if he could only start in CLE... EVER this is contradictory, and you can't have it both ways... as to pedigree, were you even aware JJ & tatum bell were taken within a few spots of each other? is bell marquee? instead of being quick to dis somebody elses analysis it seems you haven't understood that well, spend a little time thinking through your own position... it is riddled with contradictions...i mentioned specifically ATL & norwood was potentially one of my most controversial slots, & yet you completely ommitted that as if i didn't say it... maybe he is that much better... your opinion... BTW, where did norwood get drafted relative to JJ? maybe a lot of front offices were wrong in their respective evaluations, but it isn't clear from their pedigree that a lot of teams thought norwood was so much better they shouldn't even be in the same conversation... i have yet to hear convincing explanation of if JJ is so lousy how he has two of top DAL rushing performances in history?i don't recall saying hold JJ for four more years until he is 29... he signed 6 year contract but last two years are voidable (not sure how easy incentives are)... he is 25 and finishing his third year... based on the incentive clauses, it is possible he could be out after one more year, at which point, by my reckoning he will be 26 (turning 27 august before his 5th season)... no? thomas jones is 28 RIGHT NOW... would you characterize him as having... how did you say it... absolutely NO value?

 

[Foosball God]

I like how you dodged my comment Bob. This is why Foosball God is in the playoffs and the Truf is looking up in the standings.

 

[coolnerd]

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

?????read above. the last post i had was admittedly a little pointed, but all others have been very objective and well thought out.

I was not as "serious" as that came off, but I thoughtPost 1: Was funny and made your point the bestPost 2: Overstated his inability in short yardage a little bit. Post 3: Started to sound like Julius did something to your familyHopefully, we can move on to the regularly scheduled thread, nothing too much was meant my comment and I probably could (maybe even should) have held it.

 

[Foosball God]

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

?????read above. the last post i had was admittedly a little pointed, but all others have been very objective and well thought out.

I was not as "serious" as that came off, but I thoughtPost 1: Was funny and made your point the bestPost 2: Overstated his inability in short yardage a little bit. Post 3: Started to sound like Julius did something to your familyHopefully, we can move on to the regularly scheduled thread, nothing too much was meant my comment and I probably could (maybe even should) have held it.

What fun would that be?

 

[coolnerd]

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

?????read above. the last post i had was admittedly a little pointed, but all others have been very objective and well thought out.

I was not as "serious" as that came off, but I thoughtPost 1: Was funny and made your point the bestPost 2: Overstated his inability in short yardage a little bit. Post 3: Started to sound like Julius did something to your familyHopefully, we can move on to the regularly scheduled thread, nothing too much was meant my comment and I probably could (maybe even should) have held it.

What fun would that be?

Go figure...I am losing my stomach for useless message board especially those that started when I was just being flippant. Just don't keep like I used to.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

I like how you dodged my comment Bob. This is why Foosball God is in the playoffs and the Truf is looking up in the standings.

not dodging, foos you can see why i might want to address the one above which i did first...what was trade offer by the way... i'll probably be retroactively kicking myself...though i doubt that was only reason i didn't make playoffs... the three teams that had highest PA had about same record, close to .500, but i'm guessing in a lot of leagues, there is some form of correlation between teams that face lower PA do better than teams with higher PA... in game breakers with gringo/baker, we had by far highest PA... we faced on AVERAGE every week what highest scoring team averaged... that is harsh, and we still barely made playoffs... not having palmer at full speed earlier in season hurt, cadillac had horrific season, losing colston for last three weeks didn't help... all some of biggest contributing factors... might be looking to trade romo before next season...

 

[BigJim®]

you can spout all the 40 yd times in the world, ive seen these guys every down for 2 and 3 years.. barber does a lot of things as good or better than jones but his speed is 100% NOT ONE OF THEM.

Between your opinion and stopwatch results, I'll obviously take your opinion. You should consider going to draft workouts so your keen eyes can properly edit misleading 40 times for the benefit of all. You're really wasting that talent on just 2 players.

 

[Foosball God]

I like how you dodged my comment Bob. This is why Foosball God is in the playoffs and the Truf is looking up in the standings.

not dodging, foos you can see why i might want to address the one above which i did first...what was trade offer by the way... i'll probably be retroactively kicking myself...though i doubt that was only reason i didn't make playoffs... the three teams that had highest PA had about same record, close to .500, but i'm guessing in a lot of leagues, there is some form of correlation between teams that face lower PA do better than teams with higher PA... in game breakers with gringo/baker, we had by far highest PA... we faced on AVERAGE every week what highest scoring team averaged... that is harsh, and we still barely made playoffs... not having palmer at full speed earlier in season hurt, cadillac had horrific season, losing colston for last three weeks didn't help... all some of biggest contributing factors... might be looking to trade romo before next season...

That's the other league where you're looking up at me in the standings. I'm talking about Ironman 4.And I don't know that you'd really kick yourself. It was MBIII, Aaron Schobel, and a pick (I think), for DeAngelo Williams.Just busting your chops my good man.

 

[baronson]

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

?????read above. the last post i had was admittedly a little pointed, but all others have been very objective and well thought out.

I was not as "serious" as that came off, but I thoughtPost 1: Was funny and made your point the bestPost 2: Overstated his inability in short yardage a little bit. Post 3: Started to sound like Julius did something to your familyHopefully, we can move on to the regularly scheduled thread, nothing too much was meant my comment and I probably could (maybe even should) have held it.

you're absolutely right. not only did julius jones leave a ####ty tip for my sister at the strip club after she spent half the night listening to him piss and moan about marion barber stealing all his TDs, while all the while not even getting ONE dance.... and she works DAMN hard, let me tell you.... he also didn't say thank you when my dad held the door for him on the way out. guy's a #####.

 

[Foosball God]

Is it just me or does this poster not have one positive or even objective thing to say about Jones. Dude is mediocore, not the worst starting RB in the league.

?????read above. the last post i had was admittedly a little pointed, but all others have been very objective and well thought out.

I was not as "serious" as that came off, but I thoughtPost 1: Was funny and made your point the bestPost 2: Overstated his inability in short yardage a little bit. Post 3: Started to sound like Julius did something to your familyHopefully, we can move on to the regularly scheduled thread, nothing too much was meant my comment and I probably could (maybe even should) have held it.

you're absolutely right. not only did julius jones leave a ####ty tip for my sister at the strip club after she spent half the night listening to him piss and moan about marion barber stealing all his TDs, while all the while not even getting ONE dance.... and she works DAMN hard, let me tell you.... he also didn't say thank you when my dad held the door for him on the way out. guy's a #####.

2/10

 

[Bob_Magaw]

* edit/add - an interesting fantasy exercise would be to ask yourself IF barber bumped JJ from DAL... how many other teams could he start for?if a low number... his dynasty prospects correspondingly low...if a higher number, that could mean more upside...i also think it would be instructive to compare him to his brother, in case his career arc could mirror it in terms of being late bloomer & developer...off top of my head, teams where he could maybe start...ARI in few years when edge gets old retires (not sure if JJ signed 4 or 5 year contract... in third year)GB if green is on declineATL debateable when dunn is older in a year or two (when JJ might be on market... of course in a few years teams may have addressed RB position in interim via draft & FA)... soime might think norwood is betterNYG when tiki retiresOAK - not sure what lamont jordan's future is, and if he will be a part of OAKs in few yearsDEN - if bell weren't around in few years, JJ has better pedigree than guys like olandis gary, mike anderson & reuben droughns that have had success thereBAL - if jamal lewis not re-signed, he could be best RB on rosterCLE - droughns may be in process of being phased out, not much elseHOU - if dom davis done, would instantly be best RB on rosterJAX - fred taylor is aging and may not be around in few years... here again, many would say maurice drew is superiorNYJ - JJ would look good behind ferguson & mangold i may be off on a couple (ATL & JAX for instance pretty debateable depending on if some like norwood & drew a lot more), but that might be close to 10...maybe there are 20 better RBs than JJ starting for other teams... much like there may be than thomas... but in right system, a top 20 talent can put up top 10-15 numbers... some teams like DEN put up big production with RBs of lesser pedigree than guys like steven jackson, mcgahee, LJ, LT, etc...

Bob, I love this angle of looking at a player's dynasty value, especially for QB, which is the most glaring example of a position with less starting quality players than starter slots. That being said, your analysis is leaving out that at least 4 instant starting quality RBs (Peterson, Lynch, Slaton, McFadden) will enter the league in the next two years. That does not even include interesting possible 2007 draft prospects like Hart, Pittman, and Irons and the rest of the sick sophomore RB class right now. I think Julius is destined to stay at the role he is at now or LESS (in this age of RBBC) as many backs more talented than him are due to enter the league soon.

hey bloom,just for the record, i generally defer to you on dynasty matters, especially on matters of offense (as you know, i'm a generalist like all the staffers but specialize in defense)... i have confidence in my scouting eye, and ultimately i make my own calls, but i put a lot of weight into reasoned conjecture of some of the staffers (of which i put you very high on dynasty matters) and other formidable thinkers in SP, and have even been known to change my mind...good points about the incoming class/es, since i was thinking at time of two year time frame (since doing a little research, it sounds like possible he could be gone after next season if he meets incentives... about two year time frame)...i guess all i would add to that are a few things...i've seen slaton play a little & he looks great... haven't seen mcfadden, but i'll defer to you until i see him... it makes me think of RBs we thought were going to be stars when they were freshman or sophomore, & than a lot changes in a few years... but i take it that mcfadden is THAT good that he won't be another maurice clarett... i've heard others rave about him...there are RBs that are getting old, but i already alluded to that... tiki out (i'd appreciate it if you would weigh in on disputed jacobs question... is he a LOCK to be starter in 07 & beyond, or what would you assign percentage he starts in 07 & has long & distinguished career)... dillon getting old, but of course maroney behind him, taylor getting old (again, in your estimation, is drew a lock to be the guy when fred is shown the door?), edge may not be old but is on the threshold - JJ might be a good looking replacement, martin is going to retire for jets most likely...also, we can't assume stud RBs always go to teams that have clear cut void and aching need for starting feature RB... in recent years, deuce to NO, LJ to KC, bush to NO (we could probably say this to a degree about maroney & white, too)...i haven't really made my position on barber clear... probably because it isn't too me ... in past two games, barber has gotten more carries, and i can't tell if that is a permanent move or not... for instance, in TB game, hard to tell if that was an aberration since it was a blowout, romo through 5 TDs, and barber didn't score a TD rushing but STILL got 2 TDs...he has been scoring TDs at a prolific pace lately, but look at distribution over the season... 4 TDs in first 6 games, than 9 TDs in next 6 games... what do we project for next season on TDs? hard to say... maybe he can do better than first 6 game pace, since not a coincidence that is when romo took over & i have said for a while i think he is the rea deal... the first 6 game pace would be a very respectable 10-11 TD pace... second 6 games a freakish 24 TD pace which looks unsustainable... has any RB with a few a carries as MBII is getting and in what has been for the most part a situational role (though admittedly his role may be evolving and transforming as we speak) sustained that pace over a whole season?because i'm not certain JJ won't get bulk of the carries in 07 as he has most of this year (again, more carries for barber in past two games... but is that a conclusive trend?), i'm not convinced he can't do the same and maybe better if they get a better OL, he breaks a few more long runs, gets more involved in screens (that last more speculative, except romo better QB than bledsoe at this point and could keep more plays alive)... another romo factor could be that he improves, & over 16 game season, they have ball more, hold it longer, & the whole pie grows so more points for barber AND JJ (that last point not relevant if JJ moves to another team)...of course as a person in the position of advising people (which you regularly do in your columns, draft analysis and dynasty work), it doesn't help to say wait and see... i'd just point out that making an early call can be two edged sword... it can help offload risk & get value at all time high... but it can also lead to selling players when they are down and later see their role change or value rise... we can all probably think of players that we gave up on too quickly at other positions in dynasty league (we traded farrior cheap in another league & that looks like bad move in retrospect, but that was due to age)... no doubt there are tempermental differences in some people pulling the trigger on moves sooner or later... i'll concede that if barber continues to have more or even equal carries to JJ in last month, that will be a troubling sign for JJ owners... i'm just not convinced yet that is the case... the risk i take, is if i wait until that is more conclusively established, his value could plummett more (unless he goes to another team, also not convince he couldn't be upgrade feature RB for few other teams)... the risk i take if i sell him short is that past few weeks anomalous... it all gets down to how we answer those projections and liklihoods for ourselves, before calculating risk assessment in either direction, cost/benefit analysis of trade, etc... right now, despite my questions about barber, i'd say he looks like he has more upside than JJ, & would trade JJ straight up for barber... but that is the point, i doubt if i could... so an important question is, if JJ isn't worthless, how much is he worth? that will help determine if you can get fair value... what kind of player could one expect to get for JJ... will that player do better in your lineup than JJ would have... i know you know this elementary stuff, but just thinking out loud...IF JJ doersn't drop as much as we think, and he receives low ball offers in a lot of leagues, that could be recipe in which a lot of owners sell short...clerarly it is crittically important to project & guesstimate what we think he will do next season & in future, and underneath that lies assumptions about his future role in DAL going forward, his relative status to other RBs in NFL... which is why i liked idea of asking how many teams he could start for, in case it comes to that...one starting point i used to launch a discussion was that thomas was also thought to have no future, and he ended up blossoming later...it would be interesting for others to do a similar exercise with barber about how many teams he could start for to get better sense of his relative value vis-a-vis JJ...* yes foos, i knew the drill... & deangelo does look like the TRUTH (hijack over or we'll get a room )

 

[baronson]

i'm pretty sure (& i may start a thread about it), that it would be a contrarian position to think that CLE was only team JJ could start for... EVER BTW is a pretty sensationalized word, and maybe isn't the one you are loking for in the credibility department...you criticized my analysis but offered a lot of speculation and opinion in your case...on the one hand you seem to think HOU will probably take a first round RB, but than say DEN doesn't take marquee RBs... did you forget kubiak came from DEN (terrible analysis )... i haven't seen anything to suggest kubiak is going to break from the system he spent so much time in & is going to all of a sudden start prioritizing RBs with premium picks... maybe, but you haven't made a compelling argument...maybe the jets take a RB... as to houston & washington being better than JJ, imo if JJ was there TODAY he would be starting... the other two have had flashes but i haven't seen anything that made me think they are special... if they were, probably jets wouldn't need to draft a RB... that might be construed as a little contradictory, but i suppose reflects on the fact that you are obviously down on JJ...i mentioned that jordan was in OAK... if he is there for another 1-2 years & looks as bad as he did this year, i'm not sure if they are chained to him for a lot longer than that if team wants to go in a different direction... we can't even predict what al davis will do 5 minutes from now... what makes you think you can in 08-09?i've heard of jacobs, just not convinced he has what it takes to be every down starter... we can all think of guys that looked good with a half dozen carries a game, but again, i'm not sure there is a 100% consensus here at FBG that jacobs absolutely is the guy there & will do well enough to retain his job, we don't know that yet... you may have forgotten that historically there haven't been a lot of 6'4" 265 lb RBs... why do you think that is, and why do you think he will be different... sure he looks good so far, he looks good with 78 carries in 13 games... he runs high &, speaking of nasty, i foresee a lot of nasty body shots in his future... he is fighting the odds to become a feature RB at all, let alone to keep it for a long time...DEN doesn't sign marquee guys... well which is it... is JJ good or not? if not, it sounds like he isn't a marquee guy... how can he be a marquee guy if he could only start in CLE... EVER this is contradictory, and you can't have it both ways... as to pedigree, were you even aware JJ & tatum bell were taken within a few spots of each other? is bell marquee? instead of being quick to dis somebody elses analysis it seems you haven't understood that well, spend a little time thinking through your own position... it is riddled with contradictions...i mentioned specifically ATL & norwood was potentially one of my most controversial slots, & yet you completely ommitted that as if i didn't say it... maybe he is that much better... your opinion... BTW, where did norwood get drafted relative to JJ? maybe a lot of front offices were wrong in their respective evaluations, but it isn't clear from their pedigree that a lot of teams thought norwood was so much better they shouldn't even be in the same conversation... i have yet to hear convincing explanation of if JJ is so lousy how he has two of top DAL rushing performances in history?i don't recall saying hold JJ for four more years until he is 29... he signed 6 year contract but last two years are voidable (not sure how easy incentives are)... he is 25 and finishing his third year... based on the incentive clauses, it is possible he could be out after one more year, at which point, by my reckoning he will be 26 (turning 27 august before his 5th season)... no? thomas jones is 28 RIGHT NOW... would you characterize him as having... how did you say it... absolutely NO value?

honestly, i don't have the strength, let alone time (ok, thats a lie) to answer everything in your much more compelling post above. so i'll pick and choose the ones i like best and you'll just have to wonder what i really think of the rest. selectivity!!!ok, you seem like a nice guy. didn't mean to berate you earlier. ok, maybe i did. whatevs. but you try pointing out that kubiak is in houston and wouldn't draft a #1 back whereas i say that denver doesn't bring in marquee names. my point was that denver doesn't sign FA marquee names. and when i call julius jones marquee, what i'm really saying is that he's a widely recognized name. he's a starting back in this league, anyway. i'm not saying he's in the class of tomlinson or someone of that ilk. sorry for the confusion. anyway, kubiak isn't the only guy in the brain trust making decisions on who to draft. in houston, he will probably be pressed to take a guy early, because no one in their right mind would trust ron dayne or sam gado or even wali lundy. they all suck. but in denver, they took a couple RBs in the draft, but never SIGNED anyone as a FA who they thought would be the starter. can you even remember the last time they did? ownership is against it is my guess. they drafted portis and tatum both in the second round, and never signed anyone to the backfield that i can recall. as for houston, if they have a shot at a slaton or mcfadden, you better believe they'll take it, after passing on reggie last year, or fans will revolt.secondly, i'm a giants fan. i've seen every carry jacobs has had this year. and i'm telling you... he's for real. i don't care what the book says on big guys that run upright, this guy kills people. he gets 4, 5, 7 yards after contact with the tackler is made. if he gets to the second level of the defense, it takes 2 or 3 (or more) LBs and DBs to bring him down. you simply cannot expect to tackle him using just one guy. not only that, but he's got great hands, and blocks well. he really is an amazing talent, and i'm looking forward to him being studly for years to come. he may not be the only guy in town (so few are these days), but he'll get his 15-18 carries and they'll be productive. trust me.julius is lowsy because he can't stay off the turf. i don't care what he did last year and how many of the greatest Dal games in history he has or hasn't had (say that 5 times fast). if you actually WATCH him play, he is a clearly below average starting RB. he gets brought down in the backfield more often than i would be, but that may not be a fair comparison because i'm pretty light on my feet. my girlfriend used to call me "twinkle toes." no she didn't. yes she did. no she didn't. yes she did. guess you'll never know, huh?i didn't glance over your norwood argument. but the fact that you even tried to make one is insane. you're the only person on all the FBG boards that thinks anyone besides norwood would take the reigns once dunn is done. norwoods nasty. period. julius probably used to carry the jerrious' books for him in school.as for pedigree, who the hell cares where anyone is drafted??? last i checked, blair thomas was the #2 overall pick about 10 years ago, and he still doesn't know the difference between a chai latte and a french roast with skim. and i know, because ryan leaf told me about it after he got done with his paper route this morning.lastly, the jets will probably draft a RB, because i don't think they're convinced cedric or leon are the answer, otherwise why would they have signed stupid kevan barlow?? having said that, cedreon have been productive this year and look good, so who knows? it don't cost nuthin to draft a guy, and provide a little spice in camp. point is, julius isn't better than any of them, or haven't you seen the way leon dices up guys in the open field and cedric pushes past the point of first contact? julius can't even get to the second level of a defense, because he's too busy getting wedgies in the backfield from blitzing DBs and the like.i'm spent.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

of course as a person in the position of advising people (which you regularly do in your columns, draft analysis and dynasty work), it doesn't help to say wait and see... i'd just point out that making an early call can be two edged sword... it can help offload risk & get value at all time high... but it can also lead to selling players when they are down and later see their role change or value rise... we can all probably think of players that we gave up on too quickly at other positions in dynasty league (we traded farrior cheap in another league & that looks like bad move in retrospect, but that was due to age)... no doubt there are tempermental differences in some people pulling the trigger on moves sooner or later...

You definitely have to have a gambler's mentality when you are "selling high" or "buying low". If anything, JJones is a buy low RIGHT NOW. All it takes is another game like he had late last year vs. Carolina for him to become a sell high again. Just like the league itself, dynasty values are very mercurial. I would not recommend shopping JJones at this moment, but would not hesitate putting feelers out once he has another standout game. The question is, as you brought up, will he get enough carries to have a big game for the rest of his tenure in Dallas?

 

[Bob_Magaw]

i'm pretty sure (& i may start a thread about it), that it would be a contrarian position to think that CLE was only team JJ could start for... EVER BTW is a pretty sensationalized word, and maybe isn't the one you are loking for in the credibility department...you criticized my analysis but offered a lot of speculation and opinion in your case...on the one hand you seem to think HOU will probably take a first round RB, but than say DEN doesn't take marquee RBs... did you forget kubiak came from DEN (terrible analysis )... i haven't seen anything to suggest kubiak is going to break from the system he spent so much time in & is going to all of a sudden start prioritizing RBs with premium picks... maybe, but you haven't made a compelling argument...maybe the jets take a RB... as to houston & washington being better than JJ, imo if JJ was there TODAY he would be starting... the other two have had flashes but i haven't seen anything that made me think they are special... if they were, probably jets wouldn't need to draft a RB... that might be construed as a little contradictory, but i suppose reflects on the fact that you are obviously down on JJ...i mentioned that jordan was in OAK... if he is there for another 1-2 years & looks as bad as he did this year, i'm not sure if they are chained to him for a lot longer than that if team wants to go in a different direction... we can't even predict what al davis will do 5 minutes from now... what makes you think you can in 08-09?i've heard of jacobs, just not convinced he has what it takes to be every down starter... we can all think of guys that looked good with a half dozen carries a game, but again, i'm not sure there is a 100% consensus here at FBG that jacobs absolutely is the guy there & will do well enough to retain his job, we don't know that yet... you may have forgotten that historically there haven't been a lot of 6'4" 265 lb RBs... why do you think that is, and why do you think he will be different... sure he looks good so far, he looks good with 78 carries in 13 games... he runs high &, speaking of nasty, i foresee a lot of nasty body shots in his future... he is fighting the odds to become a feature RB at all, let alone to keep it for a long time...DEN doesn't sign marquee guys... well which is it... is JJ good or not? if not, it sounds like he isn't a marquee guy... how can he be a marquee guy if he could only start in CLE... EVER this is contradictory, and you can't have it both ways... as to pedigree, were you even aware JJ & tatum bell were taken within a few spots of each other? is bell marquee? instead of being quick to dis somebody elses analysis it seems you haven't understood that well, spend a little time thinking through your own position... it is riddled with contradictions...i mentioned specifically ATL & norwood was potentially one of my most controversial slots, & yet you completely ommitted that as if i didn't say it... maybe he is that much better... your opinion... BTW, where did norwood get drafted relative to JJ? maybe a lot of front offices were wrong in their respective evaluations, but it isn't clear from their pedigree that a lot of teams thought norwood was so much better they shouldn't even be in the same conversation... i have yet to hear convincing explanation of if JJ is so lousy how he has two of top DAL rushing performances in history?i don't recall saying hold JJ for four more years until he is 29... he signed 6 year contract but last two years are voidable (not sure how easy incentives are)... he is 25 and finishing his third year... based on the incentive clauses, it is possible he could be out after one more year, at which point, by my reckoning he will be 26 (turning 27 august before his 5th season)... no? thomas jones is 28 RIGHT NOW... would you characterize him as having... how did you say it... absolutely NO value?

honestly, i don't have the strength, let alone time (ok, thats a lie) to answer everything in your much more compelling post above. so i'll pick and choose the ones i like best and you'll just have to wonder what i really think of the rest. selectivity!!!ok, you seem like a nice guy. didn't mean to berate you earlier. ok, maybe i did. whatevs. but you try pointing out that kubiak is in houston and wouldn't draft a #1 back whereas i say that denver doesn't bring in marquee names. my point was that denver doesn't sign FA marquee names. and when i call julius jones marquee, what i'm really saying is that he's a widely recognized name. he's a starting back in this league, anyway. i'm not saying he's in the class of tomlinson or someone of that ilk. sorry for the confusion.secondly, i'm a giants fan. i've seen every carry jacobs has had this year. and i'm telling you... he's for real. i don't care what the book says on big guys that run upright, this guy kills people. he gets 4, 5, 7 yards after contact with the tackler is made. if he gets to the second level of the defense, it takes 2 or 3 (or more) LBs and DBs to bring him down. you simply cannot expect to tackle him using just one guy. not only that, but he's got great hands, and blocks well. he really is an amazing talent, and i'm looking forward to him being studly for years to come. he may not be the only guy in town (so few are these days), but he'll get his 15-18 carries and they'll be productive. trust me.julius is lowsy because he can't stay off the turf. i don't care what he did last year and how many of the greatest Dal games in history he has or hasn't had (say that 5 times fast). if you actually WATCH him play, he is a clearly below average starting RB. he gets brought down in the backfield more often than i would be, but that may not be a fair comparison because i'm pretty light on my feet. my girlfriend used to call me "twinkle toes." no she didn't. yes she did. no she didn't. yes she did. guess you'll never know, huh?i didn't glance over your norwood argument. but the fact that you even tried to make one is insane. you're the only person on all the FBG boards that thinks anyone besides norwood would take the reigns once dunn is done. norwoods nasty. period. julius probably used to carry the jerrious' books for him in school.as for pedigree, who the hell cares where anyone is drafted??? last i checked, blair thomas was the #2 overall pick about 10 years ago, and he still doesn't know the difference between a chai latte and a french roast with skim. and i know, because ryan leaf told me about it after he got done with his paper route this morning.lastly, the jets will probably draft a RB, because i don't think they're convinced cedric or leon are the answer, otherwise why would they have signed stupid kevan barlow?? having said that, cedreon have been productive this year and look good, so who knows? it don't cost nuthin to draft a guy, and provide a little spice in camp. point is, julius isn't better than any of them, or haven't you seen the way leon dices up guys in the open field and cedric pushes past the point of first contact? julius can't even get to the second level of a defense, because he's too busy getting wedgies in the backfield from blitzing DBs and the like.i'm spent.

it obvious that in your world, it is "hip" to dis players and posters, and i don't want to attack you for your style... maybe it is your idea of funny... i was just trying to pull you down to a more coherent, reasoned discourse than... JJ could only start for CLE... EVER, which you have to admit wasn't a shining moment for you, and didn't put your best foot forward on this matter in demonstrating that you aren't biased...can you be a marquee bad back? there is little doubt that your opinion is that JJ is a bad back... you have to admit that the sense in which using marquee would be relevant and meaningful in this context is to say skeletor wouldn't bring in marquee GOOD back... if he is underappreciated and undervalued, why wouldn't he bring him in? if JJ was getting lots off offers in FA since he is stud RB, DEN wouldn't enter the bidding (even IF they were so inclined)... but if you are being consistent, you just said JJ could only start for CLE ever, so it sounds like he might come pretty cheap, and its not like bell bros are world beaters...jacobs looks great getting 6 carries a game which you continue to leave out of your quasi analysis/opinion... you have no idea how he will do if his carries increase three fold, and he is no where close to be proven as pro feature RB... maybe he is, but that is what is in dispute... i get that you have seen him and like him, but lots of RBs have looked good in limited action and than flailed... we'll see... i was objecting to your take that it is absurd to think that JJ could even be in discussion here... since you have homer, regional perspective, can you honestly say there has never been ANY doubt within organization that he has what it takes to be feature RB... NOBODY in NY media has asked that question?i think it is naive toi think that you are seeing everything that JJ has to offer, and that you & i are looking at exactly same thing... have you considered that OL isn't that good & he could do better behind OL that cleared bigger holes... if you have, it isn't obvious from your responses... of course i have seen JJ, and it just goes to show we are looking at different things, attending to & prioritizing different attributes and traits... maybe it isn't intentional on your part, but it is snobbish on your part to assume you have seen everything to see & if somebody has come to different conclusion, they must be wrong... when you make a statement that JJ could only start in CLE EVER i think you have made a better testament than i ever could that you may not be seeing things as clearly as the stridency of your tone/bluster would seem to indicate.you blow off his two highest rushing games in DAL history... looking at it with your characteristic depth & objectivity... how would you explain it... luck? why don't all the other RBs that are beter than JJ get so lucky to have put up historic games (for their team)? agaon, no analysis, just glossed over (well, you did say you were going to be selective)...norwood hasn't been proven in ATL as feature RB (he got hurt in PART time role), yet you are anointing him to canton already... maybe i am only FBG that thinks JJ would have no chance to emerge as starter in ATL against norwood, or maybe more hyperbole on your part...sometimes you make things black & white... the fact that scouts make mistakes at times, doesn't mean you have to indict & throw out the entire scouting & grading system... sometimes doctors misdiagnose... does that mean you should never go see a doctor or go to hospital? i know... why don't you do this... next draft, just load up on UFAs... priest holmes was... everybody knows a first or second rounder has no better chance to be starter than UFAs, since pedigree is so useless, & taking it into account is as futile & preposterous as you have made it out to be...if we conducted board poll, i'm not at all as confident as you are that there would be 100% consensus that JJ would have NO chance to emerge as starter, and that "incumbents" are clearly better, but if i am proven wrong on THAT matter, i'll stand corrected...

 

[baronson]

not trying to take this actually very beneficial thread to a place where we're debating semantics, as no one else really cares what you or i really MEANT by what we're saying. so i'll keep it brief. when i said jones could only startin in CLE EVER it was in response to your list and the fact that it's the only place where he'd actually have a reasonable shot of winning the job. i understand that we haven't seen guys like jacobs and norwood in featured roles yet, but in limited action, they do look like the answers in their respective situations.

quick tangent: i actually have NOT read one person in media or elsewhere that thinks jacobs won't have the job. i'm not saying there aren't naysayers, but they definitely number in the few. and if you read my post, i'm completely leaving open the fact that he'll likely be in a RBBC, so that he can remain effective/healthy/studly.

as for thinking i know everything, i have no idea where you're getting that from. i mean, i do know plenty, like how jones had the injury bug a lot as the featured guy (a risk you attribute to all backs unproven), and its no coincidence that his first healthy season is also the first one in which he's NOT the featured back. but if my humor lends itself to you thinking i'm being an ahole, then i'm sorry. but i think it makes it more fun to read (not to mention write), and i'm going to continue doing it.

i do think that jones is not terribly talented. call it a "feeling," which i recognize is not the empirical evidence you're looking for. i've seen about 4-5 dallas games this year, and he's been underwhelming at best in each one of them. maybe he's lost a step since his glory days of trouncing a couple teams last year (which could also be a function of the gameplan, defense, etc - and speak less to his talent than a superior blocking scheme or a weak defense... just saying it's possible). and maybe he's just not that good. but given

additionally, you seem to forget that after having had such incredible record-setting games last year, that he still didn't walk into camp with the RB job outright. parcells obviously does not have much confidence in his ability if a guy like Marion Barber (a 4th round pick with, by your book, questionable pedigree) can come in and threaten julius jones' featured role (which has since been minimized). care to address that?

i forget now what the rest of your points were about. pick this up later? nice.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

from my side, i think things got off on the wrong track when you said my analysis was ####.

i guess it isn't my style, but if i disagreed with somebody else's opinions, i think there are more respectful ways to make your points, and just as effectively...

i have no problem with interjecting attempts at humor like using words like twinkle toes & wedgies that maybe have more descriptive and explanatory value to you personally than to others (& some of my favorite exchanges here and at FFA involve me or others making a funny)... but like i said, that isn't what prompted the response from me...

it is probably another style difference, but if i am going to question somebody elses opinions, and offer more of my own, especially when i understand both to be opinions, i'm less likely to say that is #### analysis.

now there are opinions and then there are wild-##### speculations like saying JJ is way better than LT, where i think uttering something that contrarian & left field would practically invite chiding... imo, it wasn't that off base to suggest that 20 or more RBs might be better than JJ, and possibly fewer than 10 were worse... imo, than, i didn't think it warranted your level of ridicule...

i do think that if people start to think they are smarter, and have better opinions, than they are more likely to be disrespectful. i don't think i am smarter than you. maybe i am, but i certainly haven't seen enough of what you think in this small slice to assume that.

aside from the disrespectful tone, you seem like a bright, funny, well spoken person who i could potentially learn something from (i learn from a lot of people because i can't be every where at once, & i find many bring a valuable homer & regional perspective even on that level, if not even able to share even deeper & more general insights)... that is why i honor your opinions at least enough to not say that is a #### analysis... if i disagree with you, i'll try & pay you the respect to keep it on the level of sticking to your facts or reasoning...

BTW, if i point out what seems like a contradiction, its not trying to "make you wrong", but if i make a statement that is logically flawed, i expect to hear about it and want to, so i can improve my thinking, expand on what i know... exchanges & dialogues have the potential to do that, if both people are open to learn something... the great thing about SP & threads in general, many people can learn and benefit from that, beyond original principals in a debate, just through following the process of working through and thinking through our position more coherently, lucidly & intelligibly...

i think that process is more likely to get started, and is more likely to facilitate & foster a space where that is possible, when we don't unnecessarily disrespect & insult each other.

confidence is a good thing, and some trust their scouting vision & instincts more than others... for myself, repeatedly i have been amazed to the point where it just seems the norm, where people can seemingly look at EXACT same player & highlights... and SEE TOTALLY DIFFERENT THINGS.

maybe neither person is seeing things exactly correct, and it is somewhere in between... for me, it has given me a profound respect for this phenomenon where we REALLY AREN't looking at the exact same thing... even in a space as delimited & seemingly unambiguous as highlights of same player, people perceive different things, some notice more or less, some observations probably ARE more important but i would be hard pressed to come up with spur of the moment "importance heirachy"...

given this state of affairs, where all the time i find others notice things i didn't & conversely i notice things others didn't, and often times i can expand my knowldge and make it stronger by combining the insights of others with my own, even though i am confident and think i am smart, i try to be tolerant of & open minded about the opinions of others (unless they are really ####-###, which i didn't think mine was )...

to make this more constructive, i'll start offshoot JJ thread where others can discuss how many teams he could start for... but more analysis and less hip references remotely tethered to subject at hand are more likely to reach meeting of the minds...

i'll give some analysi right here...

you have asked several times why do i like JJ (& its not that i don't like barber)...

bloom asked me above what hope is there that he might get more carries going forward... well, going to another team came up, & that was basis of our fun little debate...

a few weeks ago, and he (JJ) is admittedly getting less carries last two weeks (hard to see if that is permanent trend), he was on pace to get roughly 1,200 yards rushing, maybe almost 250-300 yards receiving (not as sure on receiving), and about 4-5 TDs...

lets say for argument sake, he DID get traded to another team in which he started (maybe i would say less than 10 teams, you would say 1 team)... if that team didn't have another RB as good as barber, it isn't too far fetched to think JJ might get more carries than he is now (if not being divided)...

if that were the case, he looks to me to be capable of more than 1,500 (combined) yards... how much more (1,600, 1,700-1,800?), i'm not sure... also, if he got goal line carries like he has in past, i think it not unreasonable to think he could get more than 4 TDs in a season... maybe 6-8-10...

so this isn't wild speculation, but just based on what he has done THIS season, with reduced carries in a time share, & extrapolating based on that (& fact that he put up 900 yards in last half of his rookie season, actually, not last year)... it seems within realm of possibility that he could get 1,500+ yards combined & more than 4 TDs presumably (maybe a lot more) if barber weren't getting every single goal line carry (like, say, another team... not an impossibility)... i mean, he is doing that already...

maybe this is a huge stretch, but say he did go to DEN & you are mistaken that he would never go there... lets say he gets 1,700 combined yards & 8 TDs (uptick from DAL time share, but reasonably projection if he was feature RB in DEN... for purposes of my argument, it doesn't need to be DEN... in DAL with average OL, he has put up very respectable numbers for being in a time share this season)... are there REALLY 30 RBs that could do better than that... i'm not so sure...

maybe JJ couldn't handle the load... he has seemed injury prone in past, so it is a matter of conjecture... but i do think those that are down on JJ are more likely to say he couldn't handle the load, if others are higher on his prospects, probably the opposite... in itself, neither side is "right"... we don't really know the answer, and it is unanswerable unless & if he gets chance at some point, and maybe it won't be DAL, & maybe it won't be anwhere, to be the feature RB again...

we can go by historical precedent, and say JJ looked injury prone, but there have been RBs like robert smith & fred taylor who get downgraded and than at some point their value becomes elevated again relative to what it was, when they begin to stay healthy for a season or two...

 

[wannabee]

I just want to know if Bob is paid by the word. If not, he should be ....

 

[gheemony]

Goodness. This was a very good thread. WAS. There a bits of GREAT information in here. Unfortunately, it is buried in crap. Take the fight elsewhere.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Goodness. This was a very good thread. WAS. There a bits of GREAT information in here. Unfortunately, it is buried in crap. Take the fight elsewhere.

i added some constructive information*, such as trying to get at his value by suggesting a look at how many team he could start for... i thought some of that was facilely dismissed and explained why...anyway, feel free to contribute something positive to the thread if you want to add to it... defending my position and asking to not be disrespected hardly precludes you from doing that...or if you don't have anything positive to contribute, that is fine, too... you can skip posts you don't like... it is an elective process...* here is some more info, cross-posting from spinoff thread...just so i don't come off as JJ apologist, here is interesting breakdown from my favorite cowboys commentator, rafael vela, in which he talks about the aspects of barber's skill set in which he appears superior to JJ..."Jimmy Johnson and Howie Long gave Marion Barber some love, at the expense of Julius Jones. They said Bill Parcells appears to trust Barber more with the ball. Barber does appear to have better vision on the goalline. He see holes on the opposite side of the play better and thus makes a lot of scores making extreme cuts Jones does not. It should be noted that Jones has one fumble this year, back in week two. In fact, the Cowboys backs have but one fumble between them this year."i found this recent article interesting, in which he statistically compares DAL running game favorably with some of best rushing attacks in their history, including hey day with jimmy johnson & emmitt smith... while clearly barber a big part of that, it seems like many are quick to dismiss JJs role, though he is also plays a big role... sure he isn't getting a lot TDs, but he is racking up the yardage..."The Julius vs. Marion debate continues to fester. At least the part of it that puts Jones down. Here’s the skinny — it’s an empty argument. The Dallas running attack works. Very well, in fact. It’s the best we’ve seen since the glory days of Emmitt and the Moose. In fact, for all the poor mouthing the offensive line takes and all the accolades the ’90s guys get, today’s running attack rates right up there with Jimmy’s boys.The Cowboys currently rank eighth in the NFL, averaging 132.1 yards per game. Dallas is just 20 total yards behind 5th place Tennessee. With three poor run defenses still on schedule (Detroit ranks 22nd, New Orleans 25th and Philadelphia 27th) it’s quite possible that Dallas will get that top five ranking. I’ve taken the Cowboys’ rushing production for 12 games, averaged it out for sixteen and compared it to the ’90s Cowboys prime years of ‘92 through ‘95. Submitted for your perusal:Year Yards Yds. Per Carry NFL Rank TD 1995 2201 4.5 2nd 29 1993 2161 4.4 2nd 20 1992 2121 4.2 5th 20 2006 2114 4.1 ? 23 1994 1953 3.6 5th 26 This year’s running attack closely resembles, statistically, those of the ‘92 and ‘93 Super Bowl years. Two backs are doing the pulling this year instead of one, and the lead blockers are working by committee instead of trying on a clever nickname. Still, the results speak for themselves.This is a power running attack. It can score in the red zone, something the Cowboys have not been able to do since Emmitt’s prime. The 17 touchdowns scored ranks second behind San Diego and the marvellous LaDainian Tomlinson. Constructive criticism is always welcome, but can we find something new to complain about? Whether you like Jones or want to lump him, the running game works."

 

[Cowboys#1]

you can spout all the 40 yd times in the world, ive seen these guys every down for 2 and 3 years.. barber does a lot of things as good or better than jones but his speed is 100% NOT ONE OF THEM.

Between your opinion and stopwatch results, I'll obviously take your opinion. You should consider going to draft workouts so your keen eyes can properly edit misleading 40 times for the benefit of all. You're really wasting that talent on just 2 players.

there are a TON of players who are athletic freaks, combine monsters or who measure well.. a lot of guys who are fast as the wind, however if those skills dont translate onto the football field then they are not a valid representation of that players ability (on the field). Barber and Jones may measure the same 40 times but put them on a football field and one is much quicker than the other.. again im not trying to start a pissing contest im just stating what i have seen in the last 2 years.