King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Is this most likely going to be RBBC? Is their o-line going to get the job done without Allen?
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Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter King of the Jungle
- Start date
Texasmouth
Footballguy
This is the season JJ will break out. MBIII is a change of pace/short yardage guy in the mold of Richie Anderson.
JJ will finish the season healthy and post some solid numbers.
MBIII is a Bill Parcells favorite though so he becomes a must have hand cuff if you draft JJ.
JJ will finish the season healthy and post some solid numbers.
MBIII is a Bill Parcells favorite though so he becomes a must have hand cuff if you draft JJ.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
JJ will be the main guy. Barber will be the 3rd down guy and get in for a couple of series or so. Thompson for a series, maybe.
That translates to JJ getting 2/3 of the carries and Barber 1/3. Barber will have a higher YPC because he will get more draw plays on long yardage.
That translates to JJ getting 2/3 of the carries and Barber 1/3. Barber will have a higher YPC because he will get more draw plays on long yardage.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
What do you think of MBIII if thrust into the starting role early in the season?
Texasmouth
Footballguy
Really solid. He isnt the home run threat that JJ is but he has much better hands and he can pound the rock.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
Keep in mind that Dallas was without their starter at Tackle, had a rookie on one side and a guy learning on the other. We have a new gaurd, our tackle is healthy, and we have a veteran tackle on the other side. I think the line will be better. I guess the other obvious fact would be that T.O. just might take a little attention off of the running attack.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
In games when both were in the lineup and healthy (basically not counting JJ's first game from injury when he barely played).
JJ in 9 games = 185 carries = 20.6 carries per game
MBIII in 9 games = 65 carries = 7.2 carries per game
JJ should continue to get about 3/4 of the carries as long as he is healthy. IMO, MBIII is the clear backup and there is no RBBC here.
JJ in 9 games = 185 carries = 20.6 carries per game
MBIII in 9 games = 65 carries = 7.2 carries per game
JJ should continue to get about 3/4 of the carries as long as he is healthy. IMO, MBIII is the clear backup and there is no RBBC here.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
David, do your statistics include the early part of the year? If so, Barber was not healthy early and was not yet ready to play. Really, only the end of the year would be most appropriately analyzed to give future indications. And actually, that is a bit misleading as JJ was still dinged up from his high ankle sprain. Yes, he was playing, but he wasnt 100%.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Even if we only look at the last 7 games,JJ 137 carries = 19.7 carries per game
MBIII 63 carries = 9.5 carries per game
That gets it down to a 2 to 1 ratio, but as you mentioned JJ was still nicked up. I still think JJ gets 70-75% of the workload if he's in the lineup and not nicked up.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
There is no RBBC, JJ is the starter unless he gets injured.
Barber will still be the change of pace and goal line guy, which could hurt JJ's TD numbers.
Barber will still be the change of pace and goal line guy, which could hurt JJ's TD numbers.
wannabee
Footballguy
they did each get 5 TDs last year and the same ypc (3.9)Barber: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/406023
Jones: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/492974
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
Parcells dosen't screw around like Shanahan and others. He has made it clear who the man is in Dallas and always has. JJ in my mind is one of the most best valued picks so far in early drafts. (If not the best) Barber is a must handcuff because of JJ injury record but this is a senseless question to me. There is no doubt JJ is the man in Dallas. The only question is can he stay healthy and the injuries he hs had were just bad luck and not because of any fragile issues. JJ is easily capable of posting top 10 RB numbers this year! If you draft Barber early not to handcufff JJ your wasteing a bench spot!
Bankerguy
Footballguy
I like "Big Tex" as much as the next guy but I can assure you he would agree with what everyone else in this thread has already said.He's probably working hard at the restaurant.
JJ is the man.
MB3 is the bak up and change of pace guy. Prolly gets 1 series a game.
No RBBC in Dallas.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Mike Alstott also scored the same number of TDs as Cadillac Williams. Would you think Alstott will be the main guy this year in TB? LaBrandon Toefield led the Jaguars in RB touchdowns . . . anyone pimping him?Some stats can be really misleading . . .
wannabee
Footballguy
You are right, some are. That is why I included the ypc. But, I like to look at the columns for first downs and carries of 20+ for better definition.For starters, they had the same ypc so the Alstot reference should not apply. You meant it in terms of TDs. But, for two players to have the same ypc and TDs and one to have almost half of the carries as the other seems important to the discussion.
Back to the 20+ yard carries and first downs.
These are based on percenages of total carries:
TDs: Jones .02 and Barber .04 chance of each carry going for TD
20+: Jones .0156 and Barber .022 chance of each carry going for 20+ yards
First Downs: Jones .18 and Barber .20 chance of each carry going for a first down
You can take these numbers however you want. But, these are the facts.
And you're right I agree with both of your posts. Yes, the restaurant has been keeping me very busy, preparing to open another this summer.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not disputing that in some regards Barber was more productive when he carried the ball. And I'm also not saying that Barber should not get a more serious look to carry the ball more.But the fact of the matter is that in 21 career games, JJ has had 4 games with 30+ carries and 15 games with 20+ carries. Even with a few games with limited carries, he still has averaged almost 22 carries a game in his 2 year career.
That is the telling statistic here, and from what I've seen that indicates the Cowboys will try to ride Jones as long as they can.
If I were a Jones owner, I would be more concerned by Terrell Owens than with MBIII. As I mentioned in other threads, I am not so sure Owens makes Jones outlook any rosier, as there is only so much offense to go around and be split up among Owens, Glenn, Witten, Jones, and the support cast. JJ could do slightly better per touch but could get fewer touches (in theory) and lose some TD opportunities due to more passing TD.
IMO, Jones is in a group of many other RB that if given 300+ carries (implying good health) could all be Top 10 RB. Of course, only a few RB will actually get that many, which is why there usually is a log jam of players that score relatively close together from the bottom of the Top 10 into the mid teens as far as rankings go.
As I see it, for RB to make it to the elite Top 5 level, they need to be active in the passing game and also get double digit TD. Jones may not meet either of those last two, which is why he gets drafted where he does. He COULD rank in the 6-10 range with a dose of health, but there is always the risk he won't play in 16 games.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
I know what you are getting at here.As I see it, JJ's yards should climb huge. Opposing D's can longer stack the box and hope the passing game doesn't beat them. I do not see JJ putting up huge TD numbers because of Owens. Short yardage has never been his strength ...imo.
I would still give JJ a healthy bump in yardage leagues. TD heavy leagues...JJ is not so desirable..imo.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
David, you have pretty much summed up my thoughts about JJ's 2006 outlook. He's the primary ball carier when healthy. He gets substituted for in 3rd down situations. TO's impact could be mixed. Its yet to be seen whether he's the short yardage guy or not.He does have 2 of the top five rushing games in Cowboy history. Thats pretty incredible when you think of who they've had at RB over the years. Emmitt, Dorsett, Herschel Walker, etc. The guy has ability.
But with an adequate backup in Barber, Parcells is not likely to run him into the ground. He keeps JJ relatively fresh by subbing on 3rd downs. That will keep him from having top numbers, as you indicated.
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