Julius Jones - Why no respect? (1 Viewer)

[Blick]

I keep seeing the experts ranking Jones very low and I can't understand why. For instance, Yahoo and ESPN have him ranked as the 38th and 39th RB going forward. Unfortunately, I do not subscribe to this site so I don't know where he is ranked here, but my guess is that its very low as well.

So far, Jones is ranked somewhere between 10 and 15 depending on your scoring system. He gets most of his team's carries, including red zone looks. He even catches some passes.

Yes, his team is banged up right now, but he will get Hasselbeck back this week which I think will be huge.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think he'll keep on his early pace, but I see no reason why he won't settle in as a very capable RB2.

Am I overrating him?

 

[daveR]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

 

[identikit]

He's just not very good.

 

[Da Guru]

I keep seeing the experts ranking Jones very low and I can't understand why. For instance, Yahoo and ESPN have him ranked as the 38th and 39th RB going forward. Unfortunately, I do not subscribe to this site so I don't know where he is ranked here, but my guess is that its very low as well.So far, Jones is ranked somewhere between 10 and 15 depending on your scoring system. He gets most of his team's carries, including red zone looks. He even catches some passes. Yes, his team is banged up right now, but he will get Hasselbeck back this week which I think will be huge.Don't get me wrong, I don't think he'll keep on his early pace, but I see no reason why he won't settle in as a very capable RB2.Am I overrating him?

How do you feel about JJ?? That is all that matters.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

That's true. However, the OP is talking about a weekly ranking. So until he IS replaced, he is definitely undervalued for the reasons mentioned. If I saw a trend that indicated he was going to be phased out, I'd be down with the very low rankings, but I don't. He may not be great, but he's better than James at this point, so his competition is fairly light.

 

[joetrow]

After looking at his schedual down the road it looks pretty nice, so I could see him putting up better than 38th RB numbers. However, he is way to inconsitant to count on as a number 2. Last week VS Indy he put up horrible numbers, and Indy isnt a run stuffing team. I think hes a flex play at best, a better bye week filler.

 

[billjohnson]

I keep seeing the experts ranking Jones very low and I can't understand why. For instance, Yahoo and ESPN have him ranked as the 38th and 39th RB going forward. Unfortunately, I do not subscribe to this site so I don't know where he is ranked here, but my guess is that its very low as well.So far, Jones is ranked somewhere between 10 and 15 depending on your scoring system. He gets most of his team's carries, including red zone looks. He even catches some passes. Yes, his team is banged up right now, but he will get Hasselbeck back this week which I think will be huge.Don't get me wrong, I don't think he'll keep on his early pace, but I see no reason why he won't settle in as a very capable RB2.Am I overrating him?

Getting more love at FBG for week five. Can't say exactly where he's ranked this week.....but it's higher than 20 but lower than 24. So....definitely a RB3 possibility. I would agree....he definitely should be better than 39th RB this week....But never can say for sure,Bill

 

[MarcO]

He's just not very good.

disagree. The guy is an average NFL running back - no better, no worse but he'd start on just about half of NFL rosters. Dude's got multiple runs of 50+ yards in his career - you just don't do that if you're "not very good". He may not be a feature back but he's good enough to have a starting job in the NFL. WRT fantasy he's not getting benched anytime soon - there is no one in Seattle to challenge him. If he stays healthy he'll get to 1000 yards and be a top 20 fantasy RB - not bad for 8th or 9th round pick.

 

[spider321]

...but he'd start on just about half of NFL rosters.

He could possibly start for 6 NFL teams incuding his own. I'll even let you have 8 for arguments sake, but either way, that's not close to half.49ers - NoBears - NoBengals - MaybeBills - NoBroncos - NoBrowns - YesBucaneers - NoCardinals - NoChargers - NoChiefs - Yes Colts - NoCowboys - NoDolphins - NoEagles - NoFalcons - NoGiants - NoJaguars - NoJets - NoLions - NoPackers - NoPanthers - NoPatriots - MaybeRaiders - NoRams - NoRavens - MaybeRedskins - NoSaints - NoSeahawks - YesSteelers - NoTexans - NoTitans - NoVikings - No

 

[SSOG]

...but he'd start on just about half of NFL rosters.

He could possibly start for 6 NFL teams incuding his own. I'll even let you have 8 for arguments sake, but either way, that's not close to half.49ers - NoBears - NoBengals - MaybeBills - NoBroncos - NoBrowns - YesBucaneers - NoCardinals - NoChargers - NoChiefs - Yes Colts - NoCowboys - NoDolphins - NoEagles - NoFalcons - NoGiants - NoJaguars - NoJets - NoLions - NoPackers - NoPanthers - NoPatriots - MaybeRaiders - NoRams - NoRavens - MaybeRedskins - NoSaints - NoSeahawks - YesSteelers - NoTexans - NoTitans - NoVikings - No

The Ravens should be an adamant no- not only would he not start, he wouldn't even be the #2. I'd also change the Chiefs from a yes to a maybe- I'm not convinced he's better than the husk formerly known as Larry Johnson. That leaves two yeses and three maybes... and one of the "yes" situations is strictly due to injury, and the other yes is the team he's currently on.I don't know if Julius Jones is one of the 50 best RBs in the NFL right now.

 

[Mikey16x]

...but he'd start on just about half of NFL rosters.

He could possibly start for 6 NFL teams incuding his own. I'll even let you have 8 for arguments sake, but either way, that's not close to half.49ers - NoBears - NoBengals - MaybeBills - NoBroncos - MaybeBrowns - Maybe (Harrison is finally getting his the burn he rightfully deserves)Bucaneers - No Cardinals - Maybe (so far neither Beanie or Hightower have lit up the field from scrimmage)Chargers - NoChiefs - Maybe (Would really lighten the load for a guy like LJ.. Charles is talented but JJ is a more experienced back with more size)Colts - NoCowboys - NoDolphins - NoEagles - NoFalcons - NoGiants - NoJaguars - NoJets - Maybe (T.Jones isn't getting it done, Leon is a COP back and Green is unproven.. don't see why he wouldn't be getting carries on this team)Lions - NoPackers - NoPanthers - NoPatriots - MaybeRaiders - Maybe (I'm pretty sure he'd get significant playing time on this team)Rams - NoRavens - No (Rice, McGahee both better)Redskins - NoSaints - NoSeahawks - YesSteelers - NoTexans - Yes (Slaton had one big week... other then that, was regarded as seriously under-performing)Titans - NoVikings - No

fixed it for you.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Since when do you need talent to be a good fantasy player?

 

[supermark_28]

I know we only have a 4 game sample but as a Jones owner I'm only starting him when Seattle has a home game.

1 09/13/09 STL 19 117 1 0

2 09/20/09 @SF 8 11 0 0

3 09/27/09 CHI 19 98 0 0

4 10/04/09 @IND 11 25 0 0

 

[kd1]

Since when do you need talent to be a good fantasy player?

quoted for truth.easiest remaining schedule in league + getting 80% of the backfield touches + qb coming back + already off to a productive start > perceived talent.don't see how he wouldn't finish at least in the top 20. ironically, the player that i felt the same about last year at around this time was his brother.

 

[Blick]

Since when do you need talent to be a good fantasy player?

quoted for truth.easiest remaining schedule in league + getting 80% of the backfield touches + qb coming back + already off to a productive start > perceived talent.don't see how he wouldn't finish at least in the top 20. ironically, the player that i felt the same about last year at around this time was his brother.

You summed up my opinion much better than I could. I'm willing to throw last week's stats out. Wallace is horrible.

 

[kd1]

Since when do you need talent to be a good fantasy player?

quoted for truth.

easiest remaining schedule in league + getting 80% of the backfield touches + qb coming back + already off to a productive start > perceived talent.

don't see how he wouldn't finish at least in the top 20. ironically, the player that i felt the same about last year at around this time was his brother.

You summed up my opinion much better than I could.

I'm willing to throw last week's stats out. Wallace is horrible.

not really...actually, it looks like i repeated almost everything you said. i guess all people's hate come from their leeriness of his past track record of being unable to put together a big complete season, but it's gotten to the point where people completely overlook and discount any success he has. i acquired him in one league this week for little (felix jones), and am looking to add him in others.there was a thread a few days ago about projecting the top 20 rbs going forward, and it blew my mind that in 2 pages of posts, not one person mentioned him in their 20.

you can still buy low on this guy, and you shouldnt be able to.

 

[WFR]

He can'r perform when he's on the road so I dropped, yes DROPPED, him for McCoy this week in a keep-4 league.

Avg < 2yds/carry on the road is not acceptable.

His 3.5 point outing last week was the last straw for me as he cost me the game!

 

[Da Guru]

I keep seeing the experts ranking Jones very low and I can't understand why. For instance, Yahoo and ESPN have him ranked as the 38th and 39th RB going forward. Unfortunately, I do not subscribe to this site so I don't know where he is ranked here, but my guess is that its very low as well.So far, Jones is ranked somewhere between 10 and 15 depending on your scoring system. He gets most of his team's carries, including red zone looks. He even catches some passes. Yes, his team is banged up right now, but he will get Hasselbeck back this week which I think will be huge.Don't get me wrong, I don't think he'll keep on his early pace, but I see no reason why he won't settle in as a very capable RB2.Am I overrating him?

Why no respect? Because it is Julius Jones.

 

[Abrantes]

Getting more love at FBG for week five. Can't say exactly where he's ranked this week.....but it's higher than 20 but lower than 24. So....definitely a RB3 possibility. I would agree....he definitely should be better than 39th RB this week....

You just blew my mind, man.As for Julius Jones, I'd imagine people overlook him due to his inconsistent production on the field, but he's certainly a quality fantasy RB this year.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Would any of you guys start him over Slaton this week as that is my dilema? LD has JJ projected at 9.4 points and Slaton at 7.9 for week 5. I just don't think I can pull Slaton out of my starting line-up.

Note: this is not a WDIS question, but rather an inquiry into whether you guys think JJ could be a better play this week than Slaton, in general, no matter what type of league.

 

[ffguru56]

Since when do you need talent to be a good fantasy player?

Agree with you there. If you can't produce as a NFL rb then you won't have your job for long and thus their fantasy value is shot. However, he has no viable competition and there is no reason to believe his current situation will change. That being said, out of the 4 weeks so far JJ has put up very good fantasy numbers in two of them (30.41 for week 1 and 28.23 for week 3 in our league). On the other hand he has put up horrible fantasy numbers the other two games (9.10 week 2 and 6.93 week 4). His two good weeks he had 19 carries and his two bad weeks he had a limited 8 and 11 carries. I think that bodes well for his fantasy production so far. Maybe if he got the rock 19 times in weeks 2 and 4 he would have produced some good fantasy numbers. But if he doesn't get the carries he can't produce...you can't blame him there.

I don't see it fair to say that the team abandoned the running game because in his two poor weeks he had 2 yards per carry. Many times rb's will have low ypc until they get that one carry and run a long run that will boost that average. That could have been the case with him had he had more carries. Plus, one of those bad games was against SF. I'm not saying JJ is a great rb because he's not. But he can be a great fantasy player if he gets the touches SJax gets.

 

[David Yudkin]

I keep seeing the experts ranking Jones very low and I can't understand why. For instance, Yahoo and ESPN have him ranked as the 38th and 39th RB going forward. Unfortunately, I do not subscribe to this site so I don't know where he is ranked here, but my guess is that its very low as well.So far, Jones is ranked somewhere between 10 and 15 depending on your scoring system. He gets most of his team's carries, including red zone looks. He even catches some passes. Yes, his team is banged up right now, but he will get Hasselbeck back this week which I think will be huge.Don't get me wrong, I don't think he'll keep on his early pace, but I see no reason why he won't settle in as a very capable RB2.Am I overrating him?

We have Jones ranked just outside the Top 25 RB heading forward. The way things work in fantasy football, that's a big play or a TD or two from being in the Top 20. He could end up being a so-so RB2 but probably not a great one.The issue with JJ is that other than late in the season in his rookie year he has not been able to sustain much fantasy production. He's had only 4 games of 10+ fantasy points in 19 games played with SEA. His last year in DAL, he had 2 games of 10+ points in 17 games (including the post season). Even this year he's had games with 9 and 35 yards from scrimmage. That's not even poor that's just plain bad for an NFL RB with double digit touches.For JJ to do be a solid RB2 option, he'd have to do things he has not been able to do consistently in 5 other seasons. Basically, he hasn't been a great RB2 options in the past (at least not in recent years). Could it happen? Sure, it could. Is it likely to happen? I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.

 

[Chaka]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

By who?

 

[spider321]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

By who?

Me, you, Joe Schmo off the street, Mini-Me, Oprah, the contestants on Biggest Loser, Mickey Mouse.....

 

[Chaka]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

By who?

Me, you, Joe Schmo off the street, Mini-Me, Oprah, the contestants on Biggest Loser, Mickey Mouse.....

Sure.Seems like he has less competition for touches than most backs.

 

[Jed]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

By who?

Forsett

 

[aldelgreco]

i have to respect any guy that can play in the NFL and smoke cigarettes.

 

[Chaka]

He's a mediocre at best NFL RB. He could be replaced at any time.

By who?

Forsett

Perhaps but after his big game he went back into hibernation so I would not be too hopeful about that.

 

[UnknownCoach]

He doesnt get much respect here because this is a fantasy forum and Jones hasnt had a great fantasy career. I know that Mora isnt going to bench Jones because of statistics. Nobody posting here has anything close to the understanding of Jones ability that Mora does.

Regardless of how much percentage of carries Jones is getting this season, he still hasnt carried more than 19 times in a game this year. There are RBs with much greater competition getting more carries than Jones is. 100 percent of 15 carries is still 15 carries. So for fantasy, his value is still shakey.

 

[Bob Magaw]

great post by david...

i own JJ in a few leagues, & have followed him pretty closely...

he flashes talent (notably, his rookie season, as noted by david), but has been unable to sustain it...

in fairness, he split time a lot in DAL with barber (a frankly much better RB), and maybe some backs need 15+ carries to get in a rhythm... he also is the kind of RB that can break long runs at times, so with more carries, maybe he would have broken more long runs just playing the percentages (for instance, a RB that always gets 4 yards a carry could be projected in a more linear way with added carries)...

i think some (like me) kept harking back to the example of his older brother thomas, who started slowly & caught fire later... but for the past year or so i've been thinking that, by this time (at comparable stages of their respective careers), thomas had gone further faster than julius...

he is capable of a career year this year (three TDs through 4 games pacing for 12 TDs... without referencing it, i'm guessing that would have to be a career high)...

i'm higher on julius than most, & my guess is that, based on fleeting flashes of production swallowed up by long stretches of erratic, sporadic production for most of his career, he will have a hard time sustaining his current production... that said, that chance may increase if hasselbeck can return & they don't have the number of injuries at WR they had last year... that in itself is a dicey proposition with hasselbeck... JJ had a TD (or two?) with seneca wallace at the helm, so their production may not be strictly tied to each other, but i have to think if wallace was the QB every week, that would invite defenses to stop the run first, & make wallace beat them?