Just for BostonFred (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

BF -Here are all the players in the past 10 years that had a value of at least 75 points. Since the actual production levels of these guys is not the key metric of this system, it will show how important the top guys were at each position.Scoring system: Fantasy Points = (Pass Yards)/20 + (Rush Yd + Rec Yd)/10 + (Pass TDs)*4 + (Rush TDs + Rec TDs)*6 - (INTs)*1Baselines from fantasy point totals of the #12 QB, the #24 RB, the #30 WR, and the #12 TE for each season.2004:QBaunte Culpepper 166Peyton Manning 150Donovan McNabb 82RB: Shaun Alexander 149Tiki Barber 142LaDainian Tomlinson 130Curtis Martin 121Domanick Davis 104Edgerrin James 100Corey Dillon 94WR: Muhsin Muhammad 111Javon Walker 83Joe Horn 79Terrell Owens 76TE:Antonio Gates 105Tony Gonzalez 992003:QB:NoneRBriest Holmes 231Ahman Green 203LaDainian Tomlinson 202Jamal Lewis 169Clinton Portis 133Shaun Alexander 127Deuce McAllister 122Fred Taylor 94Ricky Williams 90Edgerrin James 79WR:Randy Moss 163Torry Holt 138Chad Johnson 91Anquan Boldin 84Marvin Harrison 83Hines Ward 78Derrick Mason 75TE:Tony Gonzalez 872002:QBaunte Culpepper 97Rich Gannon 97RBriest Holmes 220Ricky Williams 171LaDainian Tomlinson 155Clinton Portis 137Shaun Alexander 119Deuce McAllister 118Tiki Barber 112Travis Henry 106Charlie Garner 104WR:Marvin Harrison 119Terrell Owens 102Hines Ward 99TE:None2001:QB:Kurt Warner 113Jeff Garcia 91RB:Marshall Faulk 206Priest Holmes 142Ahman Green 129Shaun Alexander 127Curtis Martin 113Corey Dillon 96LaDainian Tomlinson 85Ricky Williams 83Antowain Smith 78WR:Marvin Harrison 114Terrell Owens 110David Boston 82TE:None2000:QBaunte Culpepper 153Jeff Garcia 145Peyton Manning 106Rich Gannon 101Donovan McNabb 89Elvis Grbac 75RB:Marshall Faulk 216Edgerrin James 179Eddie George 133Mike Anderson 98Ahman Green 92Fred Taylor 89Robert Smith 88Ricky Watters 80Charlie Garner 80Curtis Martin 78WR:Randy Moss 124Marvin Harrison 115Terrell Owens 114Rod Smith 114Derrick Alexander 93Isaac Bruce 92Torry Holt 90Ed McCaffrey 75TE:Tony Gonzalez 1141999:QB:Kurt Warner 153Steve Beuerlein 145Rich Gannon 85Peyton Manning 84RB:Edgerrin James 186Marshall Faulk 185Eddie George 124Stephen Davis 124Emmitt Smith 100Dorsey Levens 91Charlie Garner 82WR:Marvin Harrison 119Randy Moss 92Cris Carter 82Jimmy Smith 80TE:Wesley Walls 94Tony Gonzalez 911998:QB:Steve Young 187Brett Favre 96Randall Cunningham 95RB:Terrell Davis 233Jamal Anderson 185Marshall Faulk 155Fred Taylor 139Garrison Hearst 137Emmitt Smith 113Curtis Martin 92Robert Edwards 89Ricky Watters 88Barry Sanders 75WR:Randy Moss 111Antonio Freeman 104Terrell Owens 82TE:None1997:QB:Brett Favre 106Kordell Stewart 96RB:Barry Sanders 188Terrell Davis 162Dorsey Levens 120Jerome Bettis 99Napoleon Kaufman 86Karim Abdul-Jabbar 79WR:Rob Moore 91Antonio Freeman 82Rod Smith 76TE:None1996:QB:Brett Favre 159Vinny Testaverde 148Mark Brunell 128Jeff Blake 102John Elway 101Drew Bledsoe 96RB:Terry Allen 155Terrell Davis 149Ricky Watters 138Curtis Martin 125Barry Sanders 111Emmitt Smith 110Jerome Bettis 96Eddie George 78WR:Michael Jackson 88Tony Martin 85TE:Shannon Sharpe 1041995:QB:Brett Favre 161Scott Mitchell 133Warren Moon 103Jeff Blake 95John Elway 78RB:Emmitt Smith 225Curtis Martin 125Barry Sanders 122Chris Warren 115Ricky Watters 103Marshall Faulk 99Terry Allen 80Derek Loville 77WR:Jerry Rice 165Isaac Bruce 138Herman Moore 133Cris Carter 119Robert Brooks 110Carl Pickens 106Michael Irvin 101Brett Perriman 88TE:None1994:QB:Steve Young 179Brett Favre 123Dan Marino 110Drew Bledsoe 84RB:Emmitt Smith 187Barry Sanders 137Chris Warren 125Marshall Faulk 125Natrone Means 103Ricky Watters 98WR:Jerry Rice 141Sterling Sharpe 113Terance Mathis 92Andre Reed 78Tim Brown 76Herman Moore 75

 

[radballs.]

Here are those players that were within the baselines for 2004. Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan# Quarterback NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts1 Culpepper,Daunte MIN 16 4717 549 379 39 11 406 89 2 4 0 0 0 434.02 Manning,Peyton IND 16 4557 497 336 49 10 38 25 0 1 0 0 0 417.93 McNabb,Donovan PHI 15 3875 470 300 31 8 221 42 3 6 0 0 0 350.24 Green,Trent KC 16 4589 556 369 27 17 85 25 0 4 0 0 0 329.45 Plummer,Jake DEN 16 4089 522 303 27 20 215 60 1 1 0 0 0 320.26 Favre,Brett GB 16 4088 541 346 30 17 36 16 0 1 0 0 0 311.47 Delhomme,Jake CAR 16 3886 533 310 29 15 71 25 1 5 0 0 0 308.88 Brooks,Aaron NO 16 3810 542 309 21 16 199 57 4 2 1 1 0 303.09 Bulger,Marc STL 14 3964 485 321 21 14 89 19 3 4 0 0 0 295.410 Brady,Tom NE 16 3690 474 288 28 14 28 43 0 5 0 0 0 285.711 Brees,Drew SD 15 3159 400 262 27 7 85 53 2 2 38 1 0 283.612 Vick,Michael ATL 15 2313 321 181 14 12 902 121 3 7 0 0 0 268.3 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan# Running Back NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts 1 Alexander,Shaun SEA 16 0 0 0 0 0 1696 353 16 3 170 23 4 306.62 Barber,Tiki NYG 16 0 0 0 0 0 1518 322 13 2 578 52 2 299.63 Tomlinson,Ladainian SD 15 38 2 1 0 0 1335 339 17 2 441 53 1 287.54 Martin,Curtis NYJ 16 0 0 0 0 0 1697 371 12 0 245 41 2 278.25 Davis,Domanick HOU 15 0 0 0 0 0 1180 301 13 4 596 69 1 261.66 James,Edgerrin IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 1548 334 9 2 483 51 0 257.17 Dillon,Corey NE 15 0 0 0 0 0 1635 345 12 4 103 15 1 251.88 Johnson,Rudi CIN 16 0 0 0 0 0 1457 362 12 4 84 15 0 226.19 McGahee,Willis BUF 16 0 0 0 0 0 1128 284 13 2 169 22 0 207.710 Westbrook,Brian PHI 13 0 0 0 0 0 812 177 3 1 703 73 6 205.511 Portis,Clinton WAS 15 15 2 1 1 0 1315 343 5 4 235 40 2 201.812 Holmes,Priest KC 8 0 0 0 0 0 892 196 14 2 187 19 1 197.913 Green,Ahman GB 15 20 1 1 1 0 1163 259 7 4 275 40 1 196.814 Droughns,Reuben DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 1240 275 6 3 241 32 2 196.115 Dunn,Warrick ATL 16 0 0 0 0 0 1106 265 9 2 293 29 0 193.916 Pittman,Michael TB 13 0 0 0 0 0 926 219 7 6 391 41 3 191.717 McAllister,Deuce NO 14 0 0 0 0 0 1074 269 9 4 228 34 0 184.218 Bettis,Jerome PIT 15 10 1 1 1 0 941 250 13 0 46 6 0 181.219 Jones,Thomas CHI 14 0 0 0 0 0 948 240 7 1 427 56 0 179.520 Taylor,Fred JAX 14 0 0 0 0 0 1224 260 2 2 345 36 1 174.921 Jones,Kevin DET 15 0 0 0 0 0 1133 241 5 1 180 28 1 167.322 Goings,Nick CAR 16 0 0 0 0 0 821 217 6 1 394 45 1 163.523 Smith,Emmitt ARI 15 21 1 1 1 0 937 267 9 1 105 15 0 163.324 Brown,Chris TEN 11 0 0 0 0 0 1067 220 6 4 147 20 0 157.4 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan# Wide Receiver NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts 1 Muhammad,Muhsin CAR 16 0 0 0 0 0 15 3 0 1 1405 93 16 238.02 Walker,Javon GB 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1382 89 12 210.23 Horn,Joe NO 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1399 94 11 205.94 Owens,Terrell PHI 14 0 0 0 0 0 -5 3 0 1 1200 77 14 203.55 Harrison,Marvin IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1113 86 15 201.36 Bennett,Drew TEN 16 26 1 1 1 0 12 1 0 0 1247 80 11 197.27 Holt,Torry STL 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1372 94 10 197.28 Wayne,Reggie IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 -4 1 0 0 1210 77 12 192.69 Johnson,Chad CIN 16 0 0 0 0 0 39 4 0 0 1274 95 9 185.310 Driver,Donald GB 16 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 1208 84 9 175.211 Stokley,Brandon IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1077 68 10 167.712 Bruce,Isaac STL 16 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1292 89 6 165.213 Clayton,Michael TB 16 0 0 0 0 0 30 5 0 0 1193 80 7 164.314 Jackson,Darrell SEA 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1199 87 7 161.915 Smith,Rod DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 33 5 0 0 1144 79 7 159.716 Burleson,Nate MIN 16 0 0 0 0 0 49 6 0 0 1006 68 9 159.517 Mason,Derrick TEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 -3 1 0 0 1168 96 7 158.518 Kennison,Eddie KC 14 0 0 0 0 0 15 2 0 1 1086 62 8 158.119 Moss,Randy MIN 13 37 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 767 49 13 155.620 Porter,Jerry OAK 16 0 0 0 0 0 -4 1 0 2 998 64 9 153.421 Smith,Jimmy JAX 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1172 74 6 153.222 Johnson,Andre HOU 16 0 0 0 0 0 12 4 0 1 1142 79 6 151.423 Lelie,Ashley DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 1084 54 7 150.924 Evans,Lee BUF 16 0 0 0 0 0 85 5 0 1 843 48 9 146.825 Chambers,Chris MIA 15 0 0 0 0 0 76 9 0 1 898 69 7 139.426 Moulds,Eric BUF 16 0 0 0 0 0 19 5 0 1 1043 88 5 136.227 Johnson,Keyshawn DAL 16 0 2 0 0 1 13 2 0 1 986 70 6 134.928 Ward,Hines PIT 16 0 0 0 0 0 25 7 1 0 1004 80 4 132.929 Williams,Roy DET 14 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 817 54 8 129.830 Fitzgerald,Larry ARI 16 0 0 0 0 0 14 8 0 0 780 58 8 127.4 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan# Tight End NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts 1 Gates,Antonio SD 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 964 81 13 174.42 Gonzalez,Tony KC 16 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 1258 102 7 168.33 Witten,Jason DAL 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 980 87 6 134.04 Crumpler,Alge ATL 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 774 48 6 113.45 McMichael,Randy MIA 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 791 73 4 103.16 Shockey,Jeremy NYG 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 666 61 6 102.67 Johnson,Eric SF 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 825 82 2 94.58 Wiggins,Jermaine MIN 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 705 71 4 94.59 Graham,Daniel NE 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 364 30 7 78.410 Franks,Bubba GB 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 361 34 7 78.111 Clark,Dallas IND 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 423 25 5 72.312 Putzier,Jeb DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 572 36 2 69.2

 

[bostonfred]

YEAR.QB.RB.WR.TE

2004 03 07 04 02

2003 00 10 07 01

2002 02 09 03 00

2001 02 09 03 00

2000 06 10 08 01

1999 04 07 04 02

1998 03 10 03 00

1997 02 06 03 00

1996 06 08 02 01

1995 05 08 08 00

1994 04 06 06 00

A couple things that stand out to me (but would be easier to see alongside raw, non-VBD numbers; I'm making assumptions in here):

In 2003, there were no QBs that broke the magical 75 VBD number. Looking back, it seems that is not an indictment of the top QBs, but the bottom QBs catching up, which we've seen since 2000 when the top half of the QB class was significantly better than the bottom half. In 2004, the fact that a bunch of QBs managed to separate themselves is interesting - it turns out we had historic years from two of the QBs, which gave them a big enough VBD number to overcome the bottom QBs steadily creeping up.

In 2004, while there were a LOT of good receivers, very few were so good as to outdistance the pack. It seems like the ones who did would be more valuable because good WRs were a dime a dozen.

In 2000 and 2003, there were twice as many top receivers as in other years. Yet in 2000, there were 6 top QBs, while in 2003, there were none. Why? In 2003, the top QBs were outproducing their peers. In 2000, there were more top QBs. Maybe the spike in top WRs in 2003 is a fluke, because there were a lot of good QBs throwing to them.

In 1999 and 2004, the number of top RBs was smaller than in other years. Was the top of the class that great? Or was the bottom stronger?

I think this data would be more useful alongside some raw numbers, and/or alonside lower VBD thresholds. For example, maybe in 2000, there were 0 QBs between 25 and 75 VBD # with a QB12 baseline. That would suggest that there was a top half and a bottom half. Or maybe there were 5 QBs hovering around a 60 baseline, which would suggest that there was a huge dropoff after QB11.

One chart alone doesn't give us enough data points to spot trends, but do you see the kind of stuff I'm looking for?

 

[bostonfred]

This is the other thing I was looking for:

Total fantasy points for the top 3x scorers at each position, where X is the number of starters at that position (e.g. top 3 QBs, top 6 RBs, top 9 WRs, etc.) As an example, the top 3 QBs this year were Culpepper, Manning and McNabb, and together they scored around 1000 points). This would give a good idea of the top end of the curve.

2004QBaunte Culpepper 166Peyton Manning 150Donovan McNabb 82166+150+82/3 = 133 <-- The top 3 QBs (theoretically, the three best at QB1)RB:Shaun Alexander 149Tiki Barber 142LaDainian Tomlinson 130Curtis Martin 121Domanick Davis 104Edgerrin James 100149+142+130+121+104+100/6=140 <-- The top 6 RBs (theoretically, the three best at RB1 and RB2)WR: Muhsin Muhammad 111Javon Walker 83Joe Horn 79Terrell Owens 76111+83+79+76/4=87 <-- I'd like the top 9 here for every year (theoretically, the three best at WR1, WR2 and WR3)TE:Antonio Gates 105Tony Gonzalez 99105+99/2=102 <-- I'd like the top 3 here for every year (theoretically, the three best at TE1)You could use that to create this chart:YEAR.QB...RB..WR.TE2004 133 140 87 1022003 100 150 60 50 * Made up numbers2002 100 150 60 50 * Made up numbersIn the fictitious above example, we see that the top QBs, WRs, and TEs really jumped up in VBD value in 2004, while the top RBs dipped a little. Then we could start to look at why, and make informed decisions about what constitutes a leaguewide trend, and what constitutes a one or two year anomaly. Yes, the numbers are somewhat arbitrary. But the reason I picked the top 3x at each position is to see what the top 1/4 of performers in a 12 person fantasy league are doing, so we can see how players at the top end are trending. If you did the same chart for the top x, 6x, 9x and 12x, you might then notice a trend that says that the QB curve is flattening, so you may as well wait on QBs, while the WR curve is steepening, maybe because guys like Moss, Harrison and Owens have been so head and shoulders above the rest of the league the last few years. I really appreciate you pulling this together. Where did you get the VBD numbers in particular? And where can I get raw numbers (which I actually think might be more useful for this exercise)?

 

[bostonfred]

Here are those players that were within the baselines for 2004.

Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan

# Quarterback NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts

1 Culpepper,Daunte MIN 16 4717 549 379 39 11 406 89 2 4 0 0 0 434.0

2 Manning,Peyton IND 16 4557 497 336 49 10 38 25 0 1 0 0 0 417.9

3 McNabb,Donovan PHI 15 3875 470 300 31 8 221 42 3 6 0 0 0 350.2

4 Green,Trent KC 16 4589 556 369 27 17 85 25 0 4 0 0 0 329.4

5 Plummer,Jake DEN 16 4089 522 303 27 20 215 60 1 1 0 0 0 320.2

6 Favre,Brett GB 16 4088 541 346 30 17 36 16 0 1 0 0 0 311.4

7 Delhomme,Jake CAR 16 3886 533 310 29 15 71 25 1 5 0 0 0 308.8

8 Brooks,Aaron NO 16 3810 542 309 21 16 199 57 4 2 1 1 0 303.0

9 Bulger,Marc STL 14 3964 485 321 21 14 89 19 3 4 0 0 0 295.4

10 Brady,Tom NE 16 3690 474 288 28 14 28 43 0 5 0 0 0 285.7

11 Brees,Drew SD 15 3159 400 262 27 7 85 53 2 2 38 1 0 283.6

12 Vick,Michael ATL 15 2313 321 181 14 12 902 121 3 7 0 0 0 268.3

Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan

# Running Back NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts

1 Alexander,Shaun SEA 16 0 0 0 0 0 1696 353 16 3 170 23 4 306.6

2 Barber,Tiki NYG 16 0 0 0 0 0 1518 322 13 2 578 52 2 299.6

3 Tomlinson,Ladainian SD 15 38 2 1 0 0 1335 339 17 2 441 53 1 287.5

4 Martin,Curtis NYJ 16 0 0 0 0 0 1697 371 12 0 245 41 2 278.2

5 Davis,Domanick HOU 15 0 0 0 0 0 1180 301 13 4 596 69 1 261.6

6 James,Edgerrin IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 1548 334 9 2 483 51 0 257.1

7 Dillon,Corey NE 15 0 0 0 0 0 1635 345 12 4 103 15 1 251.8

8 Johnson,Rudi CIN 16 0 0 0 0 0 1457 362 12 4 84 15 0 226.1

9 McGahee,Willis BUF 16 0 0 0 0 0 1128 284 13 2 169 22 0 207.7

10 Westbrook,Brian PHI 13 0 0 0 0 0 812 177 3 1 703 73 6 205.5

11 Portis,Clinton WAS 15 15 2 1 1 0 1315 343 5 4 235 40 2 201.8

12 Holmes,Priest KC 8 0 0 0 0 0 892 196 14 2 187 19 1 197.9

13 Green,Ahman GB 15 20 1 1 1 0 1163 259 7 4 275 40 1 196.8

14 Droughns,Reuben DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 1240 275 6 3 241 32 2 196.1

15 Dunn,Warrick ATL 16 0 0 0 0 0 1106 265 9 2 293 29 0 193.9

16 Pittman,Michael TB 13 0 0 0 0 0 926 219 7 6 391 41 3 191.7

17 McAllister,Deuce NO 14 0 0 0 0 0 1074 269 9 4 228 34 0 184.2

18 Bettis,Jerome PIT 15 10 1 1 1 0 941 250 13 0 46 6 0 181.2

19 Jones,Thomas CHI 14 0 0 0 0 0 948 240 7 1 427 56 0 179.5

20 Taylor,Fred JAX 14 0 0 0 0 0 1224 260 2 2 345 36 1 174.9

21 Jones,Kevin DET 15 0 0 0 0 0 1133 241 5 1 180 28 1 167.3

22 Goings,Nick CAR 16 0 0 0 0 0 821 217 6 1 394 45 1 163.5

23 Smith,Emmitt ARI 15 21 1 1 1 0 937 267 9 1 105 15 0 163.3

24 Brown,Chris TEN 11 0 0 0 0 0 1067 220 6 4 147 20 0 157.4

Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan

# Wide Receiver NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts

1 Muhammad,Muhsin CAR 16 0 0 0 0 0 15 3 0 1 1405 93 16 238.0

2 Walker,Javon GB 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1382 89 12 210.2

3 Horn,Joe NO 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1399 94 11 205.9

4 Owens,Terrell PHI 14 0 0 0 0 0 -5 3 0 1 1200 77 14 203.5

5 Harrison,Marvin IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1113 86 15 201.3

6 Bennett,Drew TEN 16 26 1 1 1 0 12 1 0 0 1247 80 11 197.2

7 Holt,Torry STL 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1372 94 10 197.2

8 Wayne,Reggie IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 -4 1 0 0 1210 77 12 192.6

9 Johnson,Chad CIN 16 0 0 0 0 0 39 4 0 0 1274 95 9 185.3

10 Driver,Donald GB 16 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 1208 84 9 175.2

11 Stokley,Brandon IND 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1077 68 10 167.7

12 Bruce,Isaac STL 16 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1292 89 6 165.2

13 Clayton,Michael TB 16 0 0 0 0 0 30 5 0 0 1193 80 7 164.3

14 Jackson,Darrell SEA 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1199 87 7 161.9

15 Smith,Rod DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 33 5 0 0 1144 79 7 159.7

16 Burleson,Nate MIN 16 0 0 0 0 0 49 6 0 0 1006 68 9 159.5

17 Mason,Derrick TEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 -3 1 0 0 1168 96 7 158.5

18 Kennison,Eddie KC 14 0 0 0 0 0 15 2 0 1 1086 62 8 158.1

19 Moss,Randy MIN 13 37 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 767 49 13 155.6

20 Porter,Jerry OAK 16 0 0 0 0 0 -4 1 0 2 998 64 9 153.4

21 Smith,Jimmy JAX 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1172 74 6 153.2

22 Johnson,Andre HOU 16 0 0 0 0 0 12 4 0 1 1142 79 6 151.4

23 Lelie,Ashley DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 1084 54 7 150.9

24 Evans,Lee BUF 16 0 0 0 0 0 85 5 0 1 843 48 9 146.8

25 Chambers,Chris MIA 15 0 0 0 0 0 76 9 0 1 898 69 7 139.4

26 Moulds,Eric BUF 16 0 0 0 0 0 19 5 0 1 1043 88 5 136.2

27 Johnson,Keyshawn DAL 16 0 2 0 0 1 13 2 0 1 986 70 6 134.9

28 Ward,Hines PIT 16 0 0 0 0 0 25 7 1 0 1004 80 4 132.9

29 Williams,Roy DET 14 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 817 54 8 129.8

30 Fitzgerald,Larry ARI 16 0 0 0 0 0 14 8 0 0 780 58 8 127.4

Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Fum Rec Num Rec Fan

# Tight End NFL GP Yds Att Comp TDs Int Yds Att TDs Lost Yds Rec TDs Pts

1 Gates,Antonio SD 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 964 81 13 174.4

2 Gonzalez,Tony KC 16 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 1258 102 7 168.3

3 Witten,Jason DAL 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 980 87 6 134.0

4 Crumpler,Alge ATL 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 774 48 6 113.4

5 McMichael,Randy MIA 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 791 73 4 103.1

6 Shockey,Jeremy NYG 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 666 61 6 102.6

7 Johnson,Eric SF 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 825 82 2 94.5

8 Wiggins,Jermaine MIN 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 705 71 4 94.5

9 Graham,Daniel NE 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 364 30 7 78.4

10 Franks,Bubba GB 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 361 34 7 78.1

11 Clark,Dallas IND 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 423 25 5 72.3

12 Putzier,Jeb DEN 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 572 36 2 69.2

Awesome. The far right column contains raw fantasy points, right?

 

[David Yudkin]

The other issue here is that some of the guys that ranked as high as they did were not expected to rank that high. For example, Barber, Muhammad, Gates, Boldin, Martin, Garner, etc. really would not have been drafted where they ended up ranked.

I am working on grabbing some ADP data and full value data for the past 10 years to see what else that gets us.

Again, the question then becomes what to do with the data and how to interpret it . . .

It's a lot easier to make some conclusions AFTER knowing the results than BEFORE the season is played. So I might suggest overlaying the preseason ADP with the actual year-end results to see who really was the best option.

And HERE is where I got my data from, which is slightly different than what was posted above.

 

[radballs.]

Awesome. The far right column contains raw fantasy points, right?

FBG scoring. Sorry, I'm not good at formatting from excel. I thought looking at everyone within the baselines could be informative.

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[beto]

In my 2004 redraft leagues I was severly burned by taking the 00 number for QBs in 2003 and extrapolating that to 2004. Your post puts things in perspective.Good stuff guys.

 

[bostonfred]

Good point David, and I agree that most end of season stats should be seen through that lens. What I like about trends, though, is that if I think a player's raw talent is worth X, but other players at the position have been steadily increasing, maybe I bump up my projections for him. At a minimum, I can start to look for reasons why. If we hypothesize that the enforcement of the no-contact rule made a difference last year, for example, then see that passing stats had actually been increasing for the last few years, that's helpful, because I probably shouldn't expect a year n+1 regression. On the other hand, if we see that passing stats had been trending downward, and suddenly spike up in 2004, we might say that something in 2004 changed, and the no-contact rule is one of several likely suspects. If we see a year when VBD numbers were down, but it looks like it's because several studs got hurt that year, then we haven't got much to work with. If instead we see that VBD numbers have been going down the last couple years, but raw numbers have been going up, then we might say to wait on that position, because the gap between the top and bottom is closing. The other thing I like is that you might see something that you hadn't noticed before. The more you look at the last couple years, the more things you think of. There's probably trends that we haven't considered yet, and putting a bunch of raw numbers out leads to some good hypotheses, even if very few of them pan out to be anything useful.

 

[radballs.]

The other issue here is that some of the guys that ranked as high as they did were not expected to rank that high. For example, Barber, Muhammad, Gates, Boldin, Martin, Garner, etc. really would not have been drafted where they ended up ranked.

I am working on grabbing some ADP data and full value data for the past 10 years to see what else that gets us.

Again, the question then becomes what to do with the data and how to interpret it . . .

It's a lot easier to make some conclusions AFTER knowing the results than BEFORE the season is played. So I might suggest overlaying the preseason ADP with the actual year-end results to see who really was the best option.

And HERE is where I got my data from, which is slightly different than what was posted above.

I think reviewing the ADP data would be really useful. It does seem like the RB class for example became much "deeper" because guys that were drafted in the 3rd round and later in most drafts made this list. I don't know whether this is a higher percentage than any other year. Maybe, we need to take a look at the list and determine what percentage of these RBs (for example) were chosen within the first two rounds given the ADP data and see how this compares to previous years.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Reading these posts gives me a headache.

 

[LHUCKS]

Reading these posts gives me a headache.

Well then I'd say you have a very fitting avatar

 

[bostonfred]

The other issue here is that some of the guys that ranked as high as they did were not expected to rank that high.  For example, Barber, Muhammad, Gates, Boldin, Martin, Garner, etc. really would not have been drafted where they ended up ranked.

I am working on grabbing some ADP data and full value data for the past 10 years to see what else that gets us.

Again, the question then becomes what to do with the data and how to interpret it . . .

It's a lot easier to make some conclusions AFTER knowing the results than BEFORE the season is played.  So I might suggest overlaying the preseason ADP with the actual year-end results to see who really was the best option.

And HERE is where I got my data from, which is slightly different than what was posted above.

I think reviewing the ADP data would be really useful. It does seem like the RB class for example became much "deeper" because guys that were drafted in the 3rd round and later in most drafts made this list. I don't know whether this is a higher percentage than any other year. Maybe, we need to take a look at the list and determine what percentage of these RBs (for example) were chosen within the first two rounds given the ADP data and see how this compares to previous years.

I think what we'll see is that year N scoring is a more valid predictor of year N+1 ADP than year N+1 VBD... Specifically last year, it seemed like there were a ton of backs with huge question marks being taken in the second, while backs with fewer questions were taken in the third.

Also, remember that RB ADPs are up over the last few years as the "Faulk theory", "Stud RB", and the flex position converged. I think we're going to see the pendulum swing the other direction starting this year, as more teams are moving back to start 2 RBs, while the supply of RBs appears to be increasing.

 

[mcjc4]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am

 

[bostonfred]

By the way, because I thought I had written it in both of my first two posts and it turns out I'd written in in neither, thanks David for putting this together.

 

[radballs.]

Specifically last year, it seemed like there were a ton of backs with huge question marks being taken in the second, while backs with fewer questions were taken in the third.

Also, remember that RB ADPs are up over the last few years as the "Faulk theory", "Stud RB", and the flex position converged. I think we're going to see the pendulum swing the other direction starting this year, as more teams are moving back to start 2 RBs.

But, there were quite a few first rounders that also didn't live up to their draft position either from injury or underperformance. I agree with your assessment regarding the pendulum swinging back away from the stud RB theory a bit. There will be more QBs and WRs taken in the first three rounds in '05 than any year that I can recall.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

 

[tommyGunZ]

great thread. still very raw, but at first glance, it appears that going RB-WR may be the most rewarded draft strategy, since the top WRs seem to be pulling away as the RBs become more diluted as a whole.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am   

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

So Yuds, do you get paid for being a mod???? Sorry if this is rude for asking, but I have always wondered how as to what the mods get as well as admin for all of their time on here. Also, playing fantasy sports is a combination of religion, hobby, etc. Fantasy sporting with the help of the internet have made professional sports so addicting and I love it.

 

[tommyGunZ]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am   

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

So Yuds, do you get paid for being a mod???? Sorry if this is rude for asking, but I have always wondered how as to what the mods get as well as admin for all of their time on here. Also, playing fantasy sports is a combination of religion, hobby, etc. Fantasy sporting with the help of the internet have made professional sports so addicting and I love it.

Mods around here make hundreds of thousands for their efforts. You didn't know?

 

[David Yudkin]

great thread. still very raw, but at first glance, it appears that going RB-WR may be the most rewarded draft strategy, since the top WRs seem to be pulling away as the RBs become more diluted as a whole.

I think perception is an interesting thing. I looked at the same numbers and came to a different conclusion.If we thin out the herd to only players with a value of 100 points or more . . .

2004:

QB:

Daunte Culpepper 166

Peyton Manning 150

RB:

Shaun Alexander 149

Tiki Barber 142

LaDainian Tomlinson 130

Curtis Martin 121

Domanick Davis 104

Edgerrin James 100

WR:

Muhsin Muhammad 111

TE:

Antonio Gates 105

2003:

QB:

None

RB:

Priest Holmes 231

Ahman Green 203

LaDainian Tomlinson 202

Jamal Lewis 169

Clinton Portis 133

Shaun Alexander 127

Deuce McAllister 122

WR:

Randy Moss 163

Torry Holt 138

TE:

None

2002:

QB:

None

RB:

Priest Holmes 220

Ricky Williams 171

LaDainian Tomlinson 155

Clinton Portis 137

Shaun Alexander 119

Deuce McAllister 118

Tiki Barber 112

Travis Henry 106

Charlie Garner 104

WR:

Marvin Harrison 119

Terrell Owens 102

TE:

None

2001:

QB:

Kurt Warner 113

RB:

Marshall Faulk 206

Priest Holmes 142

Ahman Green 129

Shaun Alexander 127

Curtis Martin 113

WR:

Marvin Harrison 114

Terrell Owens 110

TE:

None

2000:

QB:

Daunte Culpepper 153

Jeff Garcia 145

Peyton Manning 106

Rich Gannon 101

RB:

Marshall Faulk 216

Edgerrin James 179

Eddie George 133

WR:

Randy Moss 124

Marvin Harrison 115

Terrell Owens 114

Rod Smith 114

TE:

Tony Gonzalez 114

1999:

QB:

Kurt Warner 153

Steve Beuerlein 145

RB:

Edgerrin James 186

Marshall Faulk 185

Eddie George 124

Stephen Davis 124

Emmitt Smith 100

WR:

Marvin Harrison 119

TE:

None

1998:

QB:

Steve Young 187

RB:

Terrell Davis 233

Jamal Anderson 185

Marshall Faulk 155

Fred Taylor 139

Garrison Hearst 137

Emmitt Smith 113

WR:

Randy Moss 111

Antonio Freeman 104

TE:

None

1997:

QB:

Brett Favre 106

RB:

Barry Sanders 188

Terrell Davis 162

Dorsey Levens 120

WR:

None

TE:

None

1996:

QB:

Brett Favre 159

Vinny Testaverde 148

Mark Brunell 128

Jeff Blake 102

John Elway 101

RB:

Terry Allen 155

Terrell Davis 149

Ricky Watters 138

Curtis Martin 125

Barry Sanders 111

Emmitt Smith 110

WR:

None

TE:

Shannon Sharpe 104

1995:

QB:

Brett Favre 161

Scott Mitchell 133

Warren Moon 103

RB:

Emmitt Smith 225

Curtis Martin 125

Barry Sanders 122

Chris Warren 115

Ricky Watters 103

WR:

Jerry Rice 165

Isaac Bruce 138

Herman Moore 133

Cris Carter 119

Robert Brooks 110

Carl Pickens 106

Michael Irvin 101

TE:

None

1994:

QB:

Steve Young 179

Brett Favre 123

Dan Marino 110

RB:

Emmitt Smith 187

Barry Sanders 137

Chris Warren 125

Marshall Faulk 125

Natrone Means 103

WR:

Jerry Rice 141

Sterling Sharpe 113

On that list, there were 22 QB, 60 RB, 23 WR, and 3 TE. IMO, this still shows the RB position to be of utmost importance.

 

[wannabee]

great thread.  still very raw, but at first glance, it appears that going RB-WR may be the most rewarded draft strategy, since the top WRs seem to be pulling away as the RBs become more diluted as a whole.

I think perception is an interesting thing. I looked at the same numbers and came to a different conclusion.If we thin out the herd to only players with a value of 100 points or more . . .

2004:

QB:

Daunte Culpepper 166

Peyton Manning 150

RB:

Shaun Alexander 149

Tiki Barber 142

LaDainian Tomlinson 130

Curtis Martin 121

Domanick Davis 104

Edgerrin James 100

WR:

Muhsin Muhammad 111

TE:

Antonio Gates 105

2003:

QB:

None

RB:

Priest Holmes 231

Ahman Green 203

LaDainian Tomlinson 202

Jamal Lewis 169

Clinton Portis 133

Shaun Alexander 127

Deuce McAllister 122

WR:

Randy Moss 163

Torry Holt 138

TE:

None

2002:

QB:

None

RB:

Priest Holmes 220

Ricky Williams 171

LaDainian Tomlinson 155

Clinton Portis 137

Shaun Alexander 119

Deuce McAllister 118

Tiki Barber 112

Travis Henry 106

Charlie Garner 104

WR:

Marvin Harrison 119

Terrell Owens 102

TE:

None

2001:

QB:

Kurt Warner 113

RB:

Marshall Faulk 206

Priest Holmes 142

Ahman Green 129

Shaun Alexander 127

Curtis Martin 113

WR:

Marvin Harrison 114

Terrell Owens 110

TE:

None

2000:

QB:

Daunte Culpepper 153

Jeff Garcia 145

Peyton Manning 106

Rich Gannon 101

RB:

Marshall Faulk 216

Edgerrin James 179

Eddie George 133

WR:

Randy Moss 124

Marvin Harrison 115

Terrell Owens 114

Rod Smith 114

TE:

Tony Gonzalez 114

1999:

QB:

Kurt Warner 153

Steve Beuerlein 145

RB:

Edgerrin James 186

Marshall Faulk 185

Eddie George 124

Stephen Davis 124

Emmitt Smith 100

WR:

Marvin Harrison 119

TE:

None

1998:

QB:

Steve Young 187

RB:

Terrell Davis 233

Jamal Anderson 185

Marshall Faulk 155

Fred Taylor 139

Garrison Hearst 137

Emmitt Smith 113

WR:

Randy Moss 111

Antonio Freeman 104

TE:

None

1997:

QB:

Brett Favre 106

RB:

Barry Sanders 188

Terrell Davis 162

Dorsey Levens 120

WR:

None

TE:

None

1996:

QB:

Brett Favre 159

Vinny Testaverde 148

Mark Brunell 128

Jeff Blake 102

John Elway 101

RB:

Terry Allen 155

Terrell Davis 149

Ricky Watters 138

Curtis Martin 125

Barry Sanders 111

Emmitt Smith 110

WR:

None

TE:

Shannon Sharpe 104

1995:

QB:

Brett Favre 161

Scott Mitchell 133

Warren Moon 103

RB:

Emmitt Smith 225

Curtis Martin 125

Barry Sanders 122

Chris Warren 115

Ricky Watters 103

WR:

Jerry Rice 165

Isaac Bruce 138

Herman Moore 133

Cris Carter 119

Robert Brooks 110

Carl Pickens 106

Michael Irvin 101

TE:

None

1994:

QB:

Steve Young 179

Brett Favre 123

Dan Marino 110

RB:

Emmitt Smith 187

Barry Sanders 137

Chris Warren 125

Marshall Faulk 125

Natrone Means 103

WR:

Jerry Rice 141

Sterling Sharpe 113

On that list, there were 22 QB, 60 RB, 23 WR, and 3 TE. IMO, this still shows the RB position to be of utmost importance.

Good observation. In a year where everyone thinks the RB theory was proven wrong, only one receiver (who was drafted late) and two QBs scored over 100 points. This is opposed to six RBs who scored over 100 points. To me, this perception will undervalue RBs (especially RB 3-10). I still will go BPA, but will lean towards RBs in rounds one and two.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am   

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

So Yuds, do you get paid for being a mod???? Sorry if this is rude for asking, but I have always wondered how as to what the mods get as well as admin for all of their time on here. Also, playing fantasy sports is a combination of religion, hobby, etc. Fantasy sporting with the help of the internet have made professional sports so addicting and I love it.

So I jump ship in Hong Kong and make my way over to Tibet, and I get on as a looper at a course over in the Himalayas. A looper, you know, a caddy, a looper, a jock. So, I tell them I'm a pro jock, and who do you think they give me? The Dalai Lama, himself. Twelfth son of the Lama. The flowing robes, the grace, bald... striking. So, I'm on the first tee with him. I give him the driver. He hauls off and whacks one - big hitter, the Lama - long, into a ten-thousand foot crevasse, right at the base of this glacier. Do you know what the Lama says? Gunga galunga... gunga, gunga-galunga. So we finish the eighteenth and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, "Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know." And he says, "Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness." So I got that goin' for me, which is nice.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am   

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

So Yuds, do you get paid for being a mod???? Sorry if this is rude for asking, but I have always wondered how as to what the mods get as well as admin for all of their time on here. Also, playing fantasy sports is a combination of religion, hobby, etc. Fantasy sporting with the help of the internet have made professional sports so addicting and I love it.

Mods around here make hundreds of thousands for their efforts. You didn't know?

I don't know if that is sarcasm. I was merely curious to know if this is their job to come on here or a hobby. Really am just curious is all.

 

[tommyGunZ]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am   

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

So Yuds, do you get paid for being a mod???? Sorry if this is rude for asking, but I have always wondered how as to what the mods get as well as admin for all of their time on here. Also, playing fantasy sports is a combination of religion, hobby, etc. Fantasy sporting with the help of the internet have made professional sports so addicting and I love it.

Mods around here make hundreds of thousands for their efforts. You didn't know?

I don't know if that is sarcasm. I was merely curious to know if this is their job to come on here or a hobby. Really am just curious is all.

sacrasm, no harm intended.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

This is still a hobby for most people right? I am   

Long story short . . . we are trying to better predict how players will do this upcoming season, where to draft certain players, and identify players that will be more valuable than other players.While some may look at this as a hobby, others may look at it as a religion. (While others may think it to be more of a bad habit like crack cocaine or women.)

I knew fantasy football was much more than a hobby when people started emailing me on team and roster management questions with thousands of dollars riding in the balance . . .

So Yuds, do you get paid for being a mod???? Sorry if this is rude for asking, but I have always wondered how as to what the mods get as well as admin for all of their time on here. Also, playing fantasy sports is a combination of religion, hobby, etc. Fantasy sporting with the help of the internet have made professional sports so addicting and I love it.

So I jump ship in Hong Kong and make my way over to Tibet, and I get on as a looper at a course over in the Himalayas. A looper, you know, a caddy, a looper, a jock. So, I tell them I'm a pro jock, and who do you think they give me? The Dalai Lama, himself. Twelfth son of the Lama. The flowing robes, the grace, bald... striking. So, I'm on the first tee with him. I give him the driver. He hauls off and whacks one - big hitter, the Lama - long, into a ten-thousand foot crevasse, right at the base of this glacier. Do you know what the Lama says? Gunga galunga... gunga, gunga-galunga. So we finish the eighteenth and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, "Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know." And he says, "Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness." So I got that goin' for me, which is nice.

:rotflmao:

 

[Family Matters]

great thread.  still very raw, but at first glance, it appears that going RB-WR may be the most rewarded draft strategy, since the top WRs seem to be pulling away as the RBs become more diluted as a whole.

I think perception is an interesting thing. I looked at the same numbers and came to a different conclusion.If we thin out the herd to only players with a value of 100 points or more . . .

2004:

QB:

Daunte Culpepper 166

Peyton Manning 150

RB:

Shaun Alexander 149

Tiki Barber 142

LaDainian Tomlinson 130

Curtis Martin 121

Domanick Davis 104

Edgerrin James 100

WR:

Muhsin Muhammad 111

TE:

Antonio Gates 105

2003:

QB:

None

RB:

Priest Holmes 231

Ahman Green 203

LaDainian Tomlinson 202

Jamal Lewis 169

Clinton Portis 133

Shaun Alexander 127

Deuce McAllister 122

WR:

Randy Moss 163

Torry Holt 138

TE:

None

2002:

QB:

None

RB:

Priest Holmes 220

Ricky Williams 171

LaDainian Tomlinson 155

Clinton Portis 137

Shaun Alexander 119

Deuce McAllister 118

Tiki Barber 112

Travis Henry 106

Charlie Garner 104

WR:

Marvin Harrison 119

Terrell Owens 102

TE:

None

2001:

QB:

Kurt Warner 113

RB:

Marshall Faulk 206

Priest Holmes 142

Ahman Green 129

Shaun Alexander 127

Curtis Martin 113

WR:

Marvin Harrison 114

Terrell Owens 110

TE:

None

2000:

QB:

Daunte Culpepper 153

Jeff Garcia 145

Peyton Manning 106

Rich Gannon 101

RB:

Marshall Faulk 216

Edgerrin James 179

Eddie George 133

WR:

Randy Moss 124

Marvin Harrison 115

Terrell Owens 114

Rod Smith 114

TE:

Tony Gonzalez 114

1999:

QB:

Kurt Warner 153

Steve Beuerlein 145

RB:

Edgerrin James 186

Marshall Faulk 185

Eddie George 124

Stephen Davis 124

Emmitt Smith 100

WR:

Marvin Harrison 119

TE:

None

1998:

QB:

Steve Young 187

RB:

Terrell Davis 233

Jamal Anderson 185

Marshall Faulk 155

Fred Taylor 139

Garrison Hearst 137

Emmitt Smith 113

WR:

Randy Moss 111

Antonio Freeman 104

TE:

None

1997:

QB:

Brett Favre 106

RB:

Barry Sanders 188

Terrell Davis 162

Dorsey Levens 120

WR:

None

TE:

None

1996:

QB:

Brett Favre 159

Vinny Testaverde 148

Mark Brunell 128

Jeff Blake 102

John Elway 101

RB:

Terry Allen 155

Terrell Davis 149

Ricky Watters 138

Curtis Martin 125

Barry Sanders 111

Emmitt Smith 110

WR:

None

TE:

Shannon Sharpe 104

1995:

QB:

Brett Favre 161

Scott Mitchell 133

Warren Moon 103

RB:

Emmitt Smith 225

Curtis Martin 125

Barry Sanders 122

Chris Warren 115

Ricky Watters 103

WR:

Jerry Rice 165

Isaac Bruce 138

Herman Moore 133

Cris Carter 119

Robert Brooks 110

Carl Pickens 106

Michael Irvin 101

TE:

None

1994:

QB:

Steve Young 179

Brett Favre 123

Dan Marino 110

RB:

Emmitt Smith 187

Barry Sanders 137

Chris Warren 125

Marshall Faulk 125

Natrone Means 103

WR:

Jerry Rice 141

Sterling Sharpe 113

On that list, there were 22 QB, 60 RB, 23 WR, and 3 TE. IMO, this still shows the RB position to be of utmost importance.

That's what I've been saying in all the other threads. Nice job of illustrating for all of us. Also, I agree that the "perceptions" of the fantasy community as a whole will feel that the RB's are fading in level of importance.

 

[tommyGunZ]

YEAR.QB.RB.WR.TE

2004 03 07 04 02

2003 00 10 07 01

2002 02 09 03 00

2001 02 09 03 00

2000 06 10 08 01

1999 04 07 04 02

1998 03 10 03 00

1997 02 06 03 00

1996 06 08 02 01

1995 05 08 08 00

1994 04 06 06 00

My perceptions are based more on this chart than the actual raw data in David's posts - snapshots of data tables make trend-spoting easier, IMO. Other than 2003 and 2000, there is almost a 3-1 ratio in RBs > 75 value points compared to WRs achieving the magical 75 mark. Now we know that RB scarcity and the popularization of the "Stud RB" theory in recent years tends to drive up the value of RBs early in drafts, but at some point (which I guess is one of the reasons for this exercise) the overvaluation of RBs means that other positions (I would argue WR) become undervalued. Seizing on this "value" is where sharks make their money.Great thread. I'm taking another look at David's post thinning out the data to > 100 to see if that changes my perception.

Looking at this data really emphasizes how valuable shaun alexander has been the last 4 years....

 

[tommyGunZ]

really looking forward to comparing this data to the ADP in corresponding years, to make judgements about where value was found amongst positions.

 

[bagger.]

Looking at this data really emphasizes how valuable shaun alexander has been the last 4 years....

this is something that i have come to a conclusion on as well this offseason.i have always felt alexander was a top 4 or 5 back over the past few years...but have realized that he has been the only consistant one to perform at this level every year unlike the others.

this makes SA the clear #1 pick in fantasy drafts.

he may not be the #1 RB...but he is the safest player you can pick at the greatest production.

 

[bostonfred]

On that list, there were 22 QB, 60 RB, 23 WR, and 3 TE. IMO, this still shows the RB position to be of utmost importance.

Good observation. In a year where everyone thinks the RB theory was proven wrong, only one receiver (who was drafted late) and two QBs scored over 100 points. This is opposed to six RBs who scored over 100 points. To me, this perception will undervalue RBs (especially RB 3-10). I still will go BPA, but will lean towards RBs in rounds one and two.

Not to hijack, but...Of the six RBs that exceeded 100 VBD points last year, LT was drafted #1 overall, Alexander was taken in the early first, Edge was drafted in the middle of the first, Davis was drafted in the early second, and Martin and Barber were drafted in the third in most leagues.

RB-RB enthusiasts were unlikely to get two of these guys, and only 1 in 3 to get one of them. Meanwhile, many of the other first and second round RBs busted.

Meanwhile the combination of Harrison, Moss, Owens, Culpepper, Manning and Holt, the only non RBs commonly taken in the first two rounds, all succeeded and had solid VBD numbers, while fewer of their later round drafted counterparts did.

I've been a RB-RB guy for the last few years, but with the likely depth at RB this year, I think this may be a good year to break away from it in leagues that only start two RBs. It's not only that there's value in it for you and your team, but that there's too many other positions where your opponents can distinguish themselves with early round picks for you to be certain to win with RB-RB With more non-RBs likely to go in the first two rounds, more quality backs will be available to them in the third and while no one of them is certain to hit their picks, it becomes more likely that a stud QB or WR will be paired with a strong backfield, and you're already fighting for second place.

 

[bostonfred]

Looking at this data really emphasizes how valuable shaun alexander has been the last 4 years....

this is something that i have come to a conclusion on as well this offseason.i have always felt alexander was a top 4 or 5 back over the past few years...but have realized that he has been the only consistant one to perform at this level every year unlike the others.

this makes SA the clear #1 pick in fantasy drafts.

he may not be the #1 RB...but he is the safest player you can pick at the greatest production.

Why do you like him better than Tomlinson?(Although I am once again scared of Tomlinson and his huge workload)

 

[tommyGunZ]

(Although I am once again scared of Tomlinson and his huge workload)

I worried about this last year too, but went ahead and took LT2 1st overall in two of my drafts.I'm beginning to think that LaDainian is that rare exception to the workload rule. Watching almost every play of every Charger game for the past 3 seasons, it's almost as if LT is on a different level as far as fatigue. Wish I knew a way to look at his fourth quarter splits - so often LaDainian is outquicking and outrunning LBs in the fourth quarter as if he hadn't played in the first 3 quarters.

LT2 = Emmitt w/o the rings.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It means nothing, but in 6 leagues last year, I went RB-RB in four of them. In the other two, I went RB-WR (LT2/TO and LT2/CJohnson).I won the "LT2/TO" league regular season crown, and lost in SuperBowl.I won the "LT2/CJohnson" league outright, including the regular season and Super Bowl. Getting Culpepper at 3.01 certainly helped.The 4 leagues I went RB-RB in, I missed the playoff entirely. Easily my worst FF performance in years, and another reason why my perceptions may be skewed.

 

[bagger.]

Looking at this data really emphasizes how valuable shaun alexander has been the last 4 years....

this is something that i have come to a conclusion on as well this offseason.i have always felt alexander was a top 4 or 5 back over the past few years...but have realized that he has been the only consistant one to perform at this level every year unlike the others.

this makes SA the clear #1 pick in fantasy drafts.

he may not be the #1 RB...but he is the safest player you can pick at the greatest production.

Why do you like him better than Tomlinson?(Although I am once again scared of Tomlinson and his huge workload)

i have not done my 2005 projections yet, but i would imagine that LT may indeed have a slight edge in projected points.however, SA has been so solid that if i had a top draft choice i would rather give up marginal upside to limit potential downside risk.

i'm talking pretty vague here on purpose as i don't have any numbers and haven't looked extremely close at the situation yet, but this is my initial lean as of right now.

 

[bagger.]

It means nothing, but in 6 leagues last year, I went RB-RB in four of them. In the other two, I went RB-WR (LT2/TO and LT2/CJohnson).

I won the "LT2/TO" league regular season crown, and lost in SuperBowl.

I won the "LT2/CJohnson" league outright, including the regular season and Super Bowl. Getting Culpepper at 3.01 certainly helped.

The 4 leagues I went RB-RB in, I missed the playoff entirely.

Easily my worst FF performance in years, and another reason why my perceptions may be skewed.

when i run my DVBD models, it is often the case that after grabbing a RB in round one, it is often a better decision to grab a top tier WR if he is there.i crushed the fbg league i was in for the majority of the season in 2004 when i drafted priest, TO, and tiki in the first three rounds. then injuries killed me.

i typically feel i can pass on getting a RB or QB in the second round as i can get value with RBs in the 3rd and 4th and value with QBs in the 4th 5th or 6th.

something that i need to work on is not pressing for the stud TE or loading up on too many RBs as my 2nd-4th WRs tend to be marginal oftentimes.

 

[bostonfred]

Looking at this data really emphasizes how valuable shaun alexander has been the last 4 years....

this is something that i have come to a conclusion on as well this offseason.i have always felt alexander was a top 4 or 5 back over the past few years...but have realized that he has been the only consistant one to perform at this level every year unlike the others.

this makes SA the clear #1 pick in fantasy drafts.

he may not be the #1 RB...but he is the safest player you can pick at the greatest production.

Why do you like him better than Tomlinson?(Although I am once again scared of Tomlinson and his huge workload)

i have not done my 2005 projections yet, but i would imagine that LT may indeed have a slight edge in projected points.however, SA has been so solid that if i had a top draft choice i would rather give up marginal upside to limit potential downside risk.

i'm talking pretty vague here on purpose as i don't have any numbers and haven't looked extremely close at the situation yet, but this is my initial lean as of right now.

Tomlinson's been pretty good the last few years, too. There's a reason that he's consistently been a top two pick, and that he's been drafted ahead of Alexander.

 

[tommyGunZ]

i typically feel i can pass on getting a RB or QB in the second round as i can get value with RBs in the 3rd and 4th and value with QBs in the 4th 5th or 6th.

this is probably the draft strategy I'll use for many/most of my drafts in 2005. Of couse it all depends on draft position and who's available when you pick in the 2nd round.For the most part, I'm extremely skeptical of early-mid 2nd round RBs in most years. Unless Tiki continues to fall to mid/late 2nd, I'll probably go RB/WR, even picking on the swing.

Of course the next step is determining which RBs do I feel "safe" taking in the 2nd should they fall.

 

[bagger.]

Looking at this data really emphasizes how valuable shaun alexander has been the last 4 years....

this is something that i have come to a conclusion on as well this offseason.i have always felt alexander was a top 4 or 5 back over the past few years...but have realized that he has been the only consistant one to perform at this level every year unlike the others.

this makes SA the clear #1 pick in fantasy drafts.

he may not be the #1 RB...but he is the safest player you can pick at the greatest production.

Why do you like him better than Tomlinson?(Although I am once again scared of Tomlinson and his huge workload)

i have not done my 2005 projections yet, but i would imagine that LT may indeed have a slight edge in projected points.however, SA has been so solid that if i had a top draft choice i would rather give up marginal upside to limit potential downside risk.

i'm talking pretty vague here on purpose as i don't have any numbers and haven't looked extremely close at the situation yet, but this is my initial lean as of right now.

Tomlinson's been pretty good the last few years, too. There's a reason that he's consistently been a top two pick, and that he's been drafted ahead of Alexander.

agreed.it may very well be 1A and 1B.

i guess i was just pointing out that i have typically ranked SA #4 or #5 over the past few years when based on his consistant history he should be ranked in the top 2.

for me, i'd take him #1, but can understand why someone would choose LT.

 

[bostonfred]

i typically feel i can pass on getting a RB or QB in the second round as i can get value with RBs in the 3rd and 4th and value with QBs in the 4th 5th or 6th.

something that i need to work on is not pressing for the stud TE or loading up on too many RBs as my 2nd-4th WRs tend to be marginal oftentimes.

This has been your downfall every time I've drafted with you. I'm not against taking a stud TE, but you pretty much have to spend six of your first eight between RBs and WRs, and if you take a QB or WR in the first two rounds, you'd be best to make it seven.

 

[LHUCKS]

i typically feel i can pass on getting a RB or QB in the second round as i can get value with RBs in the 3rd and 4th and value with QBs in the 4th 5th or 6th.

something that i need to work on is not pressing for the stud TE or loading up on too many RBs as my 2nd-4th WRs tend to be marginal oftentimes.

This has been your downfall every time I've drafted with you. I'm not against taking a stud TE, but you pretty much have to spend six of your first eight between RBs and WRs, and if you take a QB or WR in the first two rounds, you'd be best to make it seven.

 

[bagger.]

i typically feel i can pass on getting a RB or QB in the second round as i can get value with RBs in the 3rd and 4th and value with QBs in the 4th 5th or 6th.

something that i need to work on is not pressing for the stud TE or loading up on too many RBs as my 2nd-4th WRs tend to be marginal oftentimes.

This has been your downfall every time I've drafted with you. I'm not against taking a stud TE, but you pretty much have to spend six of your first eight between RBs and WRs, and if you take a QB or WR in the first two rounds, you'd be best to make it seven.

agree.with the exception of the first SOS where i drafted Portis, CPep, and Gonzo (and all got off to slow starts but were hugely successful for most of the year after i got booted) the other public FBG drafts i have participated in i relied too heavily on DVBD on a player by played analysis and not the "good of the team".

i am going to be working on something new this season, which is similar to VBD or DVBD but involves a bit more planning as far as building a team. i'm still pretty early into formulating the strategy, but i am thinking (hoping) that this will adress some obvious drafting flaws i have had over the past 2 years.

ok, hijack over.

 

[code]

Mmmmm....

 

[Marc Levin]

great thread. still very raw, but at first glance, it appears that going RB-WR may be the most rewarded draft strategy, since the top WRs seem to be pulling away as the RBs become more diluted as a whole.

I reluctantly agree

- reluctantly since I still have this nagging feeling with no numbers in support that grabbing a top-2 or top-3 QB that lives up to that billing can really anchor your squad as well as the top RB/WR

- agree b/c it is much more likely you will be able to build around a star RB/WR whie making up the ground lost at QB later in the draft or with some modified form of a committee. Also agree that he RB pool is becominfg very diluted an dit seems easy to find a suitable RB replacement for a few weeks on a team that has a decent running game while it is nigh on impossible to replace that stud WR (see Moss last year) mid-season.

 

[Marc Levin]

i typically feel i can pass on getting a RB or QB in the second round as i can get value with RBs in the 3rd and 4th and value with QBs in the 4th 5th or 6th.

something that i need to work on is not pressing for the stud TE or loading up on too many RBs as my 2nd-4th WRs tend to be marginal oftentimes.

This has been your downfall every time I've drafted with you. I'm not against taking a stud TE, but you pretty much have to spend six of your first eight between RBs and WRs, and if you take a QB or WR in the first two rounds, you'd be best to make it seven.

For me, it's not good posting but it is a little (embedded posters here = 1/3 of quite a few of my FBGuy drafts)

 

[Marc Levin]

BTW, Yudkin and Radballs are da bomb - thanks guys.

 

[David Yudkin]

Was that a Marc Levin sighting? Good to see you back in the swing of things . . . Did basketball end?

 

[Marc Levin]

Was that a Marc Levin sighting? Good to see you back in the swing of things . . . Did basketball end?

Yup - still waiting on my prize money.Half an eye on the Nuggets and Heat, but it's time to think all-foo again.

 

[Family Matters]

Good point David, and I agree that most end of season stats should be seen through that lens.

What I like about trends, though, is that if I think a player's raw talent is worth X, but other players at the position have been steadily increasing, maybe I bump up my projections for him. At a minimum, I can start to look for reasons why.

If we hypothesize that the enforcement of the no-contact rule made a difference last year, for example, then see that passing stats had actually been increasing for the last few years, that's helpful, because I probably shouldn't expect a year n+1 regression. On the other hand, if we see that passing stats had been trending downward, and suddenly spike up in 2004, we might say that something in 2004 changed, and the no-contact rule is one of several likely suspects.

If we see a year when VBD numbers were down, but it looks like it's because several studs got hurt that year, then we haven't got much to work with. If instead we see that VBD numbers have been going down the last couple years, but raw numbers have been going up, then we might say to wait on that position, because the gap between the top and bottom is closing.

The other thing I like is that you might see something that you hadn't noticed before. The more you look at the last couple years, the more things you think of. There's probably trends that we haven't considered yet, and putting a bunch of raw numbers out leads to some good hypotheses, even if very few of them pan out to be anything useful.

Here some things I've observed that have impacted FF recently:1. RB's are still the most important player in FF leagues that start 2 RB's.

2. QB passing numbers have increased.

3. TE numbers have increased. You know about the Gonzo & Gates but did you know that TE recptions were up 7.8% last year and yardage was up 8.1%! Looking at some of the studs that have been in the league 5 years or less you can see why:

Heap

Gates

Shockey

McMichael

Witten

Crumpler

Clark

Graham

Putzier

LJ Smith

Boo Williams

4. The no contact rule allowing for more pass completions. Last year many on this board felt TE's would be the biggest benefactor of this rule change. Seems they were right.

5. Capology, free agents and the draft. With the cap situation forcing teams to find cheaper free agents and relying on the draft, teams have become younger. I believe this impacts quality of play on the defensive side of the ball to a degree. Experienced players anticipate and react to developing plays quicker than young players that maybe haven't seen the play(s) before.

6. Defensive lag & adjustment to rule changes. When the NFL implements a rule that benefits the offense, the defense lags in countering. The time it takes to retool defenses could be several years. With the no contact rule being enforced, D's are forced to adjust. What's needed are quicker LB's and better cover guys. They cannot be developed in 1 year so the efeect will continue a while longer.

When you add all these up you can see why last year resulted in the offensive explosion it did. It's also understandable why it may take a year or 2 for defenses to catch up with offenses.

Lastly, looking ahead to when D's do finally catch up, I suspect that a lighter & faster LB will be key along with better pass rushers. A perfect set up for good running teams!