Justin Blackmon Can't Put the Bottle Down! (1 Viewer)

[Coeur de Lion]

Do we know what, exactly, his latest suspension was for? I couldn't find anything, so I'm assuming he failed an NFL test and they've kept the specifics under wraps.

I wonder how much incentive he really has to make the wholesale changes needed to beat his disease, personally. Obviously, destroying his career is a huge deal -- but he's a multi-millionaire in his early 20s either way. I'm reasonably certain that whatever your definition of rock bottom is, he ain't there yet. He might not care at all -- Charles Rogers-style "I got paid, now I can just hang out and party for the next few years worry free."

How can you suggest he hasn't hit rock bottom, do you know him? The guy is a passionate player and was stripped of his right to play, Jags recouped a bunch of money. That sound pretty low to me. Just because you have money doesn't make you any happier and if you equate money to happiness then that's on you.

Thanks for making my point stronger, guy. None of us know him. We all know addiction is a bear to kick, and the odds are likely stacked against him. Either way, whether he plays another snap or not he's set for the next few years if he's dumb with his $$$, or for life if he's smart about it. No one has any idea how much of his happiness is tied up in playing football.

The point I was making is that the "no worries, he'll be fine" people are completely pulling that out of their asses.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Do we know what, exactly, his latest suspension was for? I couldn't find anything, so I'm assuming he failed an NFL test and they've kept the specifics under wraps.

I wonder how much incentive he really has to make the wholesale changes needed to beat his disease, personally. Obviously, destroying his career is a huge deal -- but he's a multi-millionaire in his early 20s either way. I'm reasonably certain that whatever your definition of rock bottom is, he ain't there yet. He might not care at all -- Charles Rogers-style "I got paid, now I can just hang out and party for the next few years worry free."

How can you suggest he hasn't hit rock bottom, do you know him? The guy is a passionate player and was stripped of his right to play, Jags recouped a bunch of money. That sound pretty low to me. Just because you have money doesn't make you any happier and if you equate money to happiness then that's on you.

Thanks for making my point stronger, guy. None of us know him. We all know addiction is a bear to kick, and the odds are likely stacked against him. Either way, whether he plays another snap or not he's set for the next few years if he's dumb with his $$$, or for life if he's smart about it. No one has any idea how much of his happiness is tied up in playing football.

The point I was making is that the "no worries, he'll be fine" people are completely pulling that out of their asses.

I'm sure he still has loads of cash, way more than the avg joe. When we say rock bottom we mean no cash and just about everyone gives up on him... then its up to him to make the change.

I think people are banking on that he'll be given a couple of extra chances due to his talent and he probably will, but today's NFL is much harder to comeback from and stay in after a yr long suspension.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Do we know what, exactly, his latest suspension was for? I couldn't find anything, so I'm assuming he failed an NFL test and they've kept the specifics under wraps.

I wonder how much incentive he really has to make the wholesale changes needed to beat his disease, personally. Obviously, destroying his career is a huge deal -- but he's a multi-millionaire in his early 20s either way. I'm reasonably certain that whatever your definition of rock bottom is, he ain't there yet. He might not care at all -- Charles Rogers-style "I got paid, now I can just hang out and party for the next few years worry free."

How can you suggest he hasn't hit rock bottom, do you know him? The guy is a passionate player and was stripped of his right to play, Jags recouped a bunch of money. That sound pretty low to me. Just because you have money doesn't make you any happier and if you equate money to happiness then that's on you.

Thanks for making my point stronger, guy. None of us know him. We all know addiction is a bear to kick, and the odds are likely stacked against him. Either way, whether he plays another snap or not he's set for the next few years if he's dumb with his $$$, or for life if he's smart about it. No one has any idea how much of his happiness is tied up in playing football.

The point I was making is that the "no worries, he'll be fine" people are completely pulling that out of their asses.

Anyone want to throw some odds out there on Blackmon coming back and staying out of trouble? I am just curious as to the public opinion. I am actually a bit more optimistic, so I will say 60% he comes back and is back to normal, 40% he flames out. Anyone else want to throw some guesses out there?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Appreciate everyone's statistical, fact-based estimates of Blackmon's chances of staying in the NFL.

 

[False Start]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Appreciate everyone's statistical, fact-based estimates of Blackmon's chances of staying in the NFL.

No problem.

http://www.recovery.org/topics/preventing-alcohol-relapse-for-you-and-your-loved-ones/'>

Approximately 90 percent of alcoholics will experience one or more relapses during the four years after treatment

 

[Coeur de Lion]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.

Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

 

[False Start]

Appreciate everyone's statistical, fact-based estimates of Blackmon's chances of staying in the NFL.

No problem.

Approximately 90 percent of alcoholics will experience one or more relapses during the four years after treatment

Who says he is an alcoholic? My buddies when we were his age would go out and drink every weekend and party. Does that make me an alcoholic? Nope. Some of my friends would also get pulled over like idiots after they drank at the bar, does that make them alcoholics? Nope. Some even had multiple DUIs in their early 20's, does that make them alcoholics? Nope, it makes them young and stupid. Saying he is an alcoholic is dumb especially when you don't know his situation and/or him personally. Could he be one? Sure, but this situations don't make him an alcoholic, just makes him stupid. Education helps cure that.

So when providing you're statistical facts that you are so excited to give us, please provide the necessary facts that show he is an alcoholic before calling him one.

 

[False Start]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.

Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

Because he got in trouble with league policies, hardly makes him an alcoholic. Makes him young and stupid and in trouble with his employer. Teach him he can't live the college life anymore, he will be good.

You calling him an alcoholic doesn't make him one, guy.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

 

[False Start]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

"Understanding English" and "using logic" doesn't equal "negativity". Though maybe those first two bit are trickier than I understood previously.

When a guy with literally millions on the line gets suspended for alcohol in-season only weeks after returning from his last suspension for alchohol and has multiple DUIs on his record -- including one where he blew a .24 -- well...

 

[Milkman]

Yeah it's close to a lock he's an alcoholic.

 

[msommer]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.

Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

Because he got in trouble with league policies, hardly makes him an alcoholic. Makes him young and stupid and in trouble with his employer. Teach him he can't live the college life anymore, he will be good.

You calling him an alcoholic doesn't make him one, guy.

Well, if he is not an alcoholic then he is just unbelievable stupid.

He got caught once, went into the program, then twice, then was suspended the first time, he plays two games and is suspended indefinitely (quite possibly more than a year), all for substance abuse. This has already cost him $3.7m, possibly his 2015 salary is no longer guaranteed ($4.3m) and equally possible the Jags can recoup a large part of the signing bonus he received in 2012.

How stupid can you get?

At least some people can function again when they go off the sauce, but what can you do about stupid?

 

[False Start]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.

Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

Because he got in trouble with league policies, hardly makes him an alcoholic. Makes him young and stupid and in trouble with his employer. Teach him he can't live the college life anymore, he will be good.

You calling him an alcoholic doesn't make him one, guy.

Well, if he is not an alcoholic then he is just unbelievable stupid.

He got caught once, went into the program, then twice, then was suspended the first time, he plays two games and is suspended indefinitely (quite possibly more than a year), all for substance abuse. This has already cost him $3.7m, possibly his 2015 salary is no longer guaranteed ($4.3m) and equally possible the Jags can recoup a large part of the signing bonus he received in 2012.

How stupid can you get?

At least some people can function again when they go off the sauce, but what can you do about stupid?

That is my point, even more stupid then unbelievably. However, education and understanding is helpful to fixing stupid. I rather have someone who was ignorant to the rules then one who has a disease. Also, when I think of substance abuse I think of illegal substances, not legal ones. The league regardless of Blackmons stupidity or possible disease, is overstepping in my eyes for testing someone for a legal substance.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

"Understanding English" and "using logic" doesn't equal "negativity". Though maybe those first two bit are trickier than I understood previously.

When a guy with literally millions on the line gets suspended for alcohol in-season only weeks after returning from his last suspension for alchohol and has multiple DUIs on his record -- including one where he blew a .24 -- well...

Yup, that makes him stupid. Maybe while partying with friends, had a drink and really didn't understand the consequences of the leagues policy since it is not like any other because he is young and stupid, not necessarily an alcoholic. You qualified to diagnose such a disease or just using logic? Bet people qualified to diagnose someone never needed schooling but just are qualified by logic. They have a Logic degree I guess, then again any kid who drinks and gets pulled over must be an alcoholic using that logic.

I'm guessing that the Jags, his agent, his NFLPA rep, the league, his lawyers, etc. might have explained it pretty carefully to him both as he entered the league and again after his first suspension last year. He's not the only one with huge stakes on the line here. He knew what could potentially happen, and either didn't care, or couldn't control himself, neither of which is particularly promising for his future.

 

[False Start]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

"Understanding English" and "using logic" doesn't equal "negativity". Though maybe those first two bit are trickier than I understood previously.

When a guy with literally millions on the line gets suspended for alcohol in-season only weeks after returning from his last suspension for alchohol and has multiple DUIs on his record -- including one where he blew a .24 -- well...

Yup, that makes him stupid. Maybe while partying with friends, had a drink and really didn't understand the consequences of the leagues policy since it is not like any other because he is young and stupid, not necessarily an alcoholic. You qualified to diagnose such a disease or just using logic? Bet people qualified to diagnose someone never needed schooling but just are qualified by logic. They have a Logic degree I guess, then again any kid who drinks and gets pulled over must be an alcoholic using that logic.

I'm guessing that the Jags, his agent, his NFLPA rep, the league, his lawyers, etc. might have explained it pretty carefully to him both as he entered the league and again after his first suspension last year. He's not the only one with huge stakes on the line here. He knew what could potentially happen, and either didn't care, or couldn't control himself, neither of which is particularly promising for his future.

So you are guessing what might have happened and what he knew or didn't know? Interesting, you deserve one of these too >>>

You made my point rather clear, no one can know if he is an alcoholic and are just guessing based off stuff we already know and don't know.

 

[*****]

Seems like Blackmon isn't the only in the stage of denial. (Just kidding).

I own Blackmon and hope he comes back strong. He will get another chance to play but If I don't appreciate that the odds of him washing out because alcoholism, stupidity, or the negative effects of being away from his team/not playing for extended stretches...then maybe I am the one who should be labeled stupid or alcoholic.

For what it's worth, I think it's more likely true than not that he does have an alcohol problem and it's not just stupidity. I also had plenty of friends in college who drank, got pulled over, got DUIs...a lot of them ended up in a program before leaving college. Blackmon had way too much at stake to chalk his multiple lapses up to poor judgement. Just my opinion.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

"Understanding English" and "using logic" doesn't equal "negativity". Though maybe those first two bit are trickier than I understood previously.

When a guy with literally millions on the line gets suspended for alcohol in-season only weeks after returning from his last suspension for alchohol and has multiple DUIs on his record -- including one where he blew a .24 -- well...

Yup, that makes him stupid. Maybe while partying with friends, had a drink and really didn't understand the consequences of the leagues policy since it is not like any other because he is young and stupid, not necessarily an alcoholic. You qualified to diagnose such a disease or just using logic? Bet people qualified to diagnose someone never needed schooling but just are qualified by logic. They have a Logic degree I guess, then again any kid who drinks and gets pulled over must be an alcoholic using that logic.

I'm guessing that the Jags, his agent, his NFLPA rep, the league, his lawyers, etc. might have explained it pretty carefully to him both as he entered the league and again after his first suspension last year. He's not the only one with huge stakes on the line here. He knew what could potentially happen, and either didn't care, or couldn't control himself, neither of which is particularly promising for his future.

So you are guessing what might have happened and what he knew or didn't know? Interesting, you deserve one of these too >>>

You made my point rather clear, no one can know if he is an alcoholic and are just guessing based off stuff we already know and don't know.

So in your world, there's a reasonable chance that no one explained the league's substance abuse policy to a guy with multiple DUI arrests and one suspension under his belt, despite the fact that Blackmon himself, the team, and Blackmon's agent all had millions of dollars riding on him staying sober?

 

[False Start]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

"Understanding English" and "using logic" doesn't equal "negativity". Though maybe those first two bit are trickier than I understood previously.

When a guy with literally millions on the line gets suspended for alcohol in-season only weeks after returning from his last suspension for alchohol and has multiple DUIs on his record -- including one where he blew a .24 -- well...

Yup, that makes him stupid. Maybe while partying with friends, had a drink and really didn't understand the consequences of the leagues policy since it is not like any other because he is young and stupid, not necessarily an alcoholic. You qualified to diagnose such a disease or just using logic? Bet people qualified to diagnose someone never needed schooling but just are qualified by logic. They have a Logic degree I guess, then again any kid who drinks and gets pulled over must be an alcoholic using that logic.

I'm guessing that the Jags, his agent, his NFLPA rep, the league, his lawyers, etc. might have explained it pretty carefully to him both as he entered the league and again after his first suspension last year. He's not the only one with huge stakes on the line here. He knew what could potentially happen, and either didn't care, or couldn't control himself, neither of which is particularly promising for his future.

So you are guessing what might have happened and what he knew or didn't know? Interesting, you deserve one of these too >>>

You made my point rather clear, no one can know if he is an alcoholic and are just guessing based off stuff we already know and don't know.

So in your world, there's a reasonable chance that no one explained the league's substance abuse policy to a guy with multiple DUI arrests and one suspension under his belt, despite the fact that Blackmon himself, the team, and Blackmon's agent all had millions of dollars riding on him staying sober?

I heard from Ryan Clark on Mike and Mike that NFL teams do not even coach some players most notably CBs on how to use technique and tackle in the NFL now, 95% of it is concepts. So yeah if coaching technique is too much in the NFL, why is it too much to assume that they didn't tell him about crazy sub rules in the league's personal conduct and substance policy?

But yes, in my world, everyone is given a fair chance to explain themselves and I don't assume things just because of how its perceived in the media or here on FBG. He may be in rehab, but we do not know. If he is then he has a problem, fact is, and let me capitalize that the FACTS ARE, we do not know where he is or what he is doing or if he is an alcoholic. We just know he has been suspended and has DUIs. In my world I wait for facts before I throw around terms like alcoholic, murderer, rapist or any criminal term in that matter. Incognitos situation is more clear, dude admitted beating his car with a bat and a person in charge of investigating seems to believe that Incognito was an aggressor, that is proof he is crazy and needs help.

Look, my opinion is he is a stupid kid in major need of learning and I am holding off on calling a kid an alcoholic. Maybe being fair to others is only in my world, but I am OK with my world.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The desperate hope of the heavily invested is strong.

About as strong as the negativity from people who do not know him calling him an alcoholic.

"Understanding English" and "using logic" doesn't equal "negativity". Though maybe those first two bit are trickier than I understood previously.

When a guy with literally millions on the line gets suspended for alcohol in-season only weeks after returning from his last suspension for alchohol and has multiple DUIs on his record -- including one where he blew a .24 -- well...

Yup, that makes him stupid. Maybe while partying with friends, had a drink and really didn't understand the consequences of the leagues policy since it is not like any other because he is young and stupid, not necessarily an alcoholic. You qualified to diagnose such a disease or just using logic? Bet people qualified to diagnose someone never needed schooling but just are qualified by logic. They have a Logic degree I guess, then again any kid who drinks and gets pulled over must be an alcoholic using that logic.

I'm guessing that the Jags, his agent, his NFLPA rep, the league, his lawyers, etc. might have explained it pretty carefully to him both as he entered the league and again after his first suspension last year. He's not the only one with huge stakes on the line here. He knew what could potentially happen, and either didn't care, or couldn't control himself, neither of which is particularly promising for his future.

So you are guessing what might have happened and what he knew or didn't know? Interesting, you deserve one of these too >>>

You made my point rather clear, no one can know if he is an alcoholic and are just guessing based off stuff we already know and don't know.

So in your world, there's a reasonable chance that no one explained the league's substance abuse policy to a guy with multiple DUI arrests and one suspension under his belt, despite the fact that Blackmon himself, the team, and Blackmon's agent all had millions of dollars riding on him staying sober?

I heard from Ryan Clark on Mike and Mike that NFL teams do not even coach some players most notably CBs on how to use technique and tackle in the NFL now, 95% of it is concepts. So yeah if coaching technique is too much in the NFL, why is it too much to assume that they didn't tell him about crazy sub rules in the league's personal conduct and substance policy?

But yes, in my world, everyone is given a fair chance to explain themselves and I don't assume things just because of how its perceived in the media or here on FBG. He may be in rehab, but we do not know. If he is then he has a problem, fact is, and let me capitalize that the FACTS ARE, we do not know where he is or what he is doing or if he is an alcoholic. We just know he has been suspended and has DUIs. In my world I wait for facts before I throw around terms like alcoholic, murderer, rapist or any criminal term in that matter. Incognitos situation is more clear, dude admitted beating his car with a bat and a person in charge of investigating seems to believe that Incognito was an aggressor, that is proof he is crazy and needs help.

Look, my opinion is he is a stupid kid in major need of learning and I am holding off on calling a kid an alcoholic. Maybe being fair to others is only in my world, but I am OK with my world.

Wow. No idea where to even begin with any of that, so I'll just bow out with a "good luck with Blackmon moving forward."

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Appreciate everyone's statistical, fact-based estimates of Blackmon's chances of staying in the NFL.

No problem.

Approximately 90 percent of alcoholics will experience one or more relapses during the four years after treatment

Thank you, that is actually helpful.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Weird that people are debating whether or not Blackmon is an alcoholic. There is almost zero doubt that he has a major problem putting down the bottle. For the folks who are in doubt: have you ever personally known an alcoholic?

 

[msommer]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.

Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

Because he got in trouble with league policies, hardly makes him an alcoholic. Makes him young and stupid and in trouble with his employer. Teach him he can't live the college life anymore, he will be good.

You calling him an alcoholic doesn't make him one, guy.

Well, if he is not an alcoholic then he is just unbelievable stupid.

He got caught once, went into the program, then twice, then was suspended the first time, he plays two games and is suspended indefinitely (quite possibly more than a year), all for substance abuse. This has already cost him $3.7m, possibly his 2015 salary is no longer guaranteed ($4.3m) and equally possible the Jags can recoup a large part of the signing bonus he received in 2012.

How stupid can you get?

At least some people can function again when they go off the sauce, but what can you do about stupid?

That is my point, even more stupid then unbelievably. However, education and understanding is helpful to fixing stupid. I rather have someone who was ignorant to the rules then one who has a disease. Also, when I think of substance abuse I think of illegal substances, not legal ones. The league regardless of Blackmons stupidity or possible disease, is overstepping in my eyes for testing someone for a legal substance.

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?

Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

 

[False Start]

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?

Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

Being stupid in no way means he will never play in the NFL. Jesus, the kid just turned 24, how smart were you at 24? Know everything about life at that point?

While it is entirely possible, some are calling a 24 yo an alcoholic because he drinks and got DUIs (I do not defend as there is nothing wrong with DUIs, one and done for driving in my eyes). Did you drink more than you do now at 24? I'm just so baffled people because he is a good NFL player that he is the most mature and educated person when a lot of 24 year olds are not.

 

[msudaisy26]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.

Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

Because he got in trouble with league policies, hardly makes him an alcoholic. Makes him young and stupid and in trouble with his employer. Teach him he can't live the college life anymore, he will be good.

You calling him an alcoholic doesn't make him one, guy.

Well, if he is not an alcoholic then he is just unbelievable stupid.

He got caught once, went into the program, then twice, then was suspended the first time, he plays two games and is suspended indefinitely (quite possibly more than a year), all for substance abuse. This has already cost him $3.7m, possibly his 2015 salary is no longer guaranteed ($4.3m) and equally possible the Jags can recoup a large part of the signing bonus he received in 2012.

How stupid can you get?

At least some people can function again when they go off the sauce, but what can you do about stupid?

That is my point, even more stupid then unbelievably. However, education and understanding is helpful to fixing stupid. I rather have someone who was ignorant to the rules then one who has a disease. Also, when I think of substance abuse I think of illegal substances, not legal ones. The league regardless of Blackmons stupidity or possible disease, is overstepping in my eyes for testing someone for a legal substance.

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?

Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

I would say there is a 95 percent chance that he plays in the NFL again. He is 24 and even if they suspend him all of next year and the Jags cut him. Someone will give him a chance when he is reinstated

 

[False Start]

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?


Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

I would say there is a 95 percent chance that he plays in the NFL again. He is 24 and even if they suspend him all of next year and the Jags cut him. Someone will give him a chance when he is reinstated

I would say there is 100% chance he will play again and 100% chance he will play this year. The NFLPA won't let the league treat him any differently than someone else in reasons like this and he is due a year ban. If he gets a year ban that will put him at week 8 this year. Since he was suspended at that time last year for what would be a year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

Really? 50% he never returns to the league? For drinking alcohol? What percentage do you give Ray Rice who slapped his woman unconscious probably while drunk himself, or what percentage did you give Ray Lewis who killed a man? This isn't Aaron Hernandez or Darren Sharper who are accused of heinous crimes, its drinking a legal substance.

Not only is your claim outlandish but you are clearly against Blackmon and dislike him clearly from your comments in this thread. No real helpful stuff just a bunch of guessing through your hatred of the man. Do you really think you are helping any person on this site looking to acquire or move Blackmon when you provide such crazy commentary? Everyone is aware of his situation, you seem to want everyone to hate him as much as you.

He's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, guy. He's going to be tested 10 times / month for the rest of his career, and if he has a sip of booze, that comes with a mandatory year off. Relapse rates for alcoholics approach 90% -- do the math. It's not hate, it's the NFL's substance abuse program.Ray Rice is a complete POS; Blackmon is a young guy with an alcohol problem. But in Rice's case, there are no mandatory penalties written into the CBA. The commissioner has discretion, and there is a decent chunk of previous information from which to project the actions taken against Rice by the league. His penalty will be way less harsh than Blackmon's. It's ridiculous, but it's what the league has shown time and again.

Because he got in trouble with league policies, hardly makes him an alcoholic. Makes him young and stupid and in trouble with his employer. Teach him he can't live the college life anymore, he will be good.

You calling him an alcoholic doesn't make him one, guy.

Well, if he is not an alcoholic then he is just unbelievable stupid.He got caught once, went into the program, then twice, then was suspended the first time, he plays two games and is suspended indefinitely (quite possibly more than a year), all for substance abuse. This has already cost him $3.7m, possibly his 2015 salary is no longer guaranteed ($4.3m) and equally possible the Jags can recoup a large part of the signing bonus he received in 2012.

How stupid can you get?

At least some people can function again when they go off the sauce, but what can you do about stupid?

That is my point, even more stupid then unbelievably. However, education and understanding is helpful to fixing stupid. I rather have someone who was ignorant to the rules then one who has a disease. Also, when I think of substance abuse I think of illegal substances, not legal ones. The league regardless of Blackmons stupidity or possible disease, is overstepping in my eyes for testing someone for a legal substance.

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

I would say there is a 95 percent chance that he plays in the NFL again. He is 24 and even if they suspend him all of next year and the Jags cut him. Someone will give him a chance when he is reinstated

Fully agree that he's talented enough to get chance after chance after chance from NFL teams. But he's also subject to random testing 10x month for life as long as he's part of the league, whether he's suspended or not. If he has a beer between now and next season, the reinstatement process isn't going to be a rubber stamp situation. There's definitely a risk he can't / doesn't completely avoid booze long enough to let the suspension / reinstatement process work through. Given the fact that he lasted all of four weeks last time, I'd put his risk level way higher than 5%. I'm pulling for him, but he's got an uphill climb for sure.

 

[msommer]

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?

Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

Being stupid in no way means he will never play in the NFL. Jesus, the kid just turned 24, how smart were you at 24? Know everything about life at that point?

While it is entirely possible, some are calling a 24 yo an alcoholic because he drinks and got DUIs (I do not defend as there is nothing wrong with DUIs, one and done for driving in my eyes). Did you drink more than you do now at 24? I'm just so baffled people because he is a good NFL player that he is the most mature and educated person when a lot of 24 year olds are not.

Never had any DUI. Not when I was 24. Not ever. I had a job and no, they did not test for alcohol. If they had, I would have partied less.

I knew the police tested for alcohol, and consequently I took a taxi home when I was sloshed.

My work place did not have the right in the contract to suspend me without pay if I drank alcohol or smoked weed outside of working hours.

If they had, I would have partied less.

My work did not pay me millions. If it had I would probably have been behaving much more maturely in connection with partying after hours.

Now Blackmon's workplace does have those rules and they have exercised them not once, not twice, but three times.

Blackmon has not shown the mental ability to learn in this sequence of events, but keeps repeating the same mistake.

That's unbelievably stupid.

And tht's why I don't think he'll play in the NFL again

 

[False Start]

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?

Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

Being stupid in no way means he will never play in the NFL. Jesus, the kid just turned 24, how smart were you at 24? Know everything about life at that point?

While it is entirely possible, some are calling a 24 yo an alcoholic because he drinks and got DUIs (I do not defend as there is nothing wrong with DUIs, one and done for driving in my eyes). Did you drink more than you do now at 24? I'm just so baffled people because he is a good NFL player that he is the most mature and educated person when a lot of 24 year olds are not.

Never had any DUI. Not when I was 24. Not ever. I had a job and no, they did not test for alcohol. If they had, I would have partied less.

I knew the police tested for alcohol, and consequently I took a taxi home when I was sloshed.

My work place did not have the right in the contract to suspend me without pay if I drank alcohol or smoked weed outside of working hours.

If they had, I would have partied less.

My work did not pay me millions. If it had I would probably have been behaving much more maturely in connection with partying after hours.

Now Blackmon's workplace does have those rules and they have exercised them not once, not twice, but three times.

Blackmon has not shown the mental ability to learn in this sequence of events, but keeps repeating the same mistake.

That's unbelievably stupid.

And tht's why I don't think he'll play in the NFL again

Bet?

 

[msommer]

I take it then that you agree that as stupid as Blackmon is (given the above) he's unlikely to play in the NFL again, right?

Obviously he can sue the league but that may not entice any of the 32 owners to give him a job in the future.

You can't fix stupid.

Being stupid in no way means he will never play in the NFL. Jesus, the kid just turned 24, how smart were you at 24? Know everything about life at that point?

While it is entirely possible, some are calling a 24 yo an alcoholic because he drinks and got DUIs (I do not defend as there is nothing wrong with DUIs, one and done for driving in my eyes). Did you drink more than you do now at 24? I'm just so baffled people because he is a good NFL player that he is the most mature and educated person when a lot of 24 year olds are not.

Never had any DUI. Not when I was 24. Not ever. I had a job and no, they did not test for alcohol. If they had, I would have partied less.

I knew the police tested for alcohol, and consequently I took a taxi home when I was sloshed.

My work place did not have the right in the contract to suspend me without pay if I drank alcohol or smoked weed outside of working hours.

If they had, I would have partied less.

My work did not pay me millions. If it had I would probably have been behaving much more maturely in connection with partying after hours.

Now Blackmon's workplace does have those rules and they have exercised them not once, not twice, but three times.

Blackmon has not shown the mental ability to learn in this sequence of events, but keeps repeating the same mistake.

That's unbelievably stupid.

And tht's why I don't think he'll play in the NFL again

Bet?

Unless you live in Copenhagen, no.

 

[cstu]

Never had any DUI. Not when I was 24. Not ever. I had a job and no, they did not test for alcohol. If they had, I would have partied less.

I knew the police tested for alcohol, and consequently I took a taxi home when I was sloshed.

My work place did not have the right in the contract to suspend me without pay if I drank alcohol or smoked weed outside of working hours.

If they had, I would have partied less.

My work did not pay me millions. If it had I would probably have been behaving much more maturely in connection with partying after hours.

Now Blackmon's workplace does have those rules and they have exercised them not once, not twice, but three times.

Blackmon has not shown the mental ability to learn in this sequence of events, but keeps repeating the same mistake.

That's unbelievably stupid.

And tht's why I don't think he'll play in the NFL again

Too many mistakes over alcohol to chalk it up to mere stupidity - the most obvious conclusion is that he is an alcoholic that can't conrol himself. He was sent to rehab immediately after his last suspension so maybe he's getting the help he needs to deal with it.

As far as him playing again, if he stays clean until he applies for reinstatement he will play again. He's already stayed clean for 3 months and has 6 months to go before the season starts.

 

[BeTheMatch]

FYI, I offered him straight up in PPR for the 1.05, 1.06, and 1.07 rookie picks in one league from three different owners. No takers.

As of right now I haven't been willing to go later than that. Not sure if I'll pursue it further or not.

Is anyone actually trying to trade for him? There's a decent chance he'll never play again. I'm not surprised those offers were turned down.

I traded for him. Definitely didn't really buy low compared to stuff being posted here, but I know the risk. I'm fine with it given the upside.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

FYI, I offered him straight up in PPR for the 1.05, 1.06, and 1.07 rookie picks in one league from three different owners. No takers.

As of right now I haven't been willing to go later than that. Not sure if I'll pursue it further or not.

Is anyone actually trying to trade for him? There's a decent chance he'll never play again. I'm not surprised those offers were turned down.

I traded for him. Definitely didn't really buy low compared to stuff being posted here, but I know the risk. I'm fine with it given the upside.

I almost pulled the trigger on sending Ryan Matthews for him in a league where I already have McCoy and Charles at RB and am thin at WR. Decided to wait and see what happens this offseason and might revisit if / when he's reinstated right before the season. The upside is tempting, but I spent the first 10 years of my post college professional life in the mental health field and am too familiar with addiction to roll those dice ATM.

 

[voiceofunreason]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

And I'll put it at .0001% that these numbers are on the money.

Comes back to the league? 100%.

Plays well for at least a short time? 99%

Gets suspended again? Hard to say but 40%

 

[Sinrman]

Man what a humongous talent that is a thread away from being banned. Jags need him desperately, and I can't think they aren't doing EVERYTHING in their power to make sure he stays clean and safe (to the point of having someone tail him to make sure he stays away from bars and even following him in a grocery store to make sure he isn't sneaking beers).

 

[voiceofunreason]

FYI, I offered him straight up in PPR for the 1.05, 1.06, and 1.07 rookie picks in one league from three different owners. No takers.

As of right now I haven't been willing to go later than that. Not sure if I'll pursue it further or not.

Is anyone actually trying to trade for him? There's a decent chance he'll never play again. I'm not surprised those offers were turned down.

I traded for him. Definitely didn't really buy low compared to stuff being posted here, but I know the risk. I'm fine with it given the upside.

I almost pulled the trigger on sending Ryan Matthews for him in a league where I already have McCoy and Charles at RB and am thin at WR. Decided to wait and see what happens this offseason and might revisit if / when he's reinstated right before the season. The upside is tempting, but I spent the first 10 years of my post college professional life in the mental health field and am too familiar with addiction to roll those dice ATM.

What difference does it make if he's reinstated? If you know how things work you should know addicts will get things together long enough to fool people. The real danger is falling off the wagon again. Buy cheap now, once he's reinstated his price goes up and the change of him staying sober really doesn't change.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function on the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as many problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly too messed up to be allowed to.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

 

[False Start]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

FYI, I offered him straight up in PPR for the 1.05, 1.06, and 1.07 rookie picks in one league from three different owners. No takers.

As of right now I haven't been willing to go later than that. Not sure if I'll pursue it further or not.

Is anyone actually trying to trade for him? There's a decent chance he'll never play again. I'm not surprised those offers were turned down.

I traded for him. Definitely didn't really buy low compared to stuff being posted here, but I know the risk. I'm fine with it given the upside.

I almost pulled the trigger on sending Ryan Matthews for him in a league where I already have McCoy and Charles at RB and am thin at WR. Decided to wait and see what happens this offseason and might revisit if / when he's reinstated right before the season. The upside is tempting, but I spent the first 10 years of my post college professional life in the mental health field and am too familiar with addiction to roll those dice ATM.

What difference does it make if he's reinstated? If you know how things work you should know addicts will get things together long enough to fool people. The real danger is falling off the wagon again. Buy cheap now, once he's reinstated his price goes up and the change of him staying sober really doesn't change.

People can be fooled, but drug tests are harder. A period of staying sober in the face of 10 tests / month leading up to reinstatement will absolutely reduce the risk level in my eyes. If it means I have to pay a bit more, so be it.

I find it completely outrageous that the NFL can call him in to pee in a cup every three days for the next ten years, and give him a year off if he has some beer cheese soup, while rapists and domestic abusers get a few games off and some counseling, if that, but it is what it is under the current CBA.

 

[cstu]

10% he plays for any length of time. 50% he never returns to the league. 40% that he teases at least once before being out of the NFL.

And I'll put it at .0001% that these numbers are on the money.

Comes back to the league? 100%.

Plays well for at least a short time? 99%

Gets suspended again? Hard to say but 40%

My feelings exactly.

 

[cstu]

People can be fooled, but drug tests are harder. A period of staying sober in the face of 10 tests / month leading up to reinstatement will absolutely reduce the risk level in my eyes. If it means I have to pay a bit more, so be it.

I find it completely outrageous that the NFL can call him in to pee in a cup every three days for the next ten years, and give him a year off if he has some beer cheese soup, while rapists and domestic abusers get a few games off and some counseling, if that, but it is what it is under the current CBA.

He's already done it for 4 months.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

Totally agree here, but IMO people are wildly under-estimating the risk with Gordon as opposed to over-estimating it with Blackmon. I want no part of Josh Gordon at his current high 1st round startup pricetag.

 

[cstu]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

Totally agree here, but IMO people are wildly under-estimating the risk with Gordon as opposed to over-estimating it with Blackmon. I want no part of Josh Gordon at his current high 1st round startup pricetag.

Bloom and Parsons have him at #3 overall.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

People can be fooled, but drug tests are harder. A period of staying sober in the face of 10 tests / month leading up to reinstatement will absolutely reduce the risk level in my eyes. If it means I have to pay a bit more, so be it.

I find it completely outrageous that the NFL can call him in to pee in a cup every three days for the next ten years, and give him a year off if he has some beer cheese soup, while rapists and domestic abusers get a few games off and some counseling, if that, but it is what it is under the current CBA.

He's already done it for 4 months.

Probably. I'm not 100% sure that a failed test would be made public immediately, considering HIPPA laws and the fact that he's already currently suspended "indefinitely." He likely also spent a decent chunk of that time in a rehab facility -- it's a different story when he's back out and around all the stuff that can serve as triggers / temptation.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

Totally agree here, but IMO people are wildly under-estimating the risk with Gordon as opposed to over-estimating it with Blackmon. I want no part of Josh Gordon at his current high 1st round startup pricetag.

Bloom and Parsons have him at #3 overall.

That's not out of line with other sites or mocks / startups at all, but no thanks IMO. I see the other top shelf young WRs as far more attractive -- equally talented, more proven, less risky.

 

[cstu]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

Totally agree here, but IMO people are wildly under-estimating the risk with Gordon as opposed to over-estimating it with Blackmon. I want no part of Josh Gordon at his current high 1st round startup pricetag.

Bloom and Parsons have him at #3 overall.

That's not out of line with other sites or mocks / startups at all, but no thanks IMO. I see the other top shelf young WRs as far more attractive -- equally talented, more proven, less risky.

Seems strange anyone would take a guy who is one mistake from a year off instead of young guys like Dez, Julio and DT.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

Totally agree here, but IMO people are wildly under-estimating the risk with Gordon as opposed to over-estimating it with Blackmon. I want no part of Josh Gordon at his current high 1st round startup pricetag.

Bloom and Parsons have him at #3 overall.

That's not out of line with other sites or mocks / startups at all, but no thanks IMO. I see the other top shelf young WRs as far more attractive -- equally talented, more proven, less risky.

Seems strange anyone would take a guy who is one mistake from a year off instead of young guys like Dez, Julio and DT.

Yeah. I think people are looking at it from a personal / emoitional / logical standpoint as opposed to basing things on league policy. Having a legal drink or smoking some weed is nowhere near say, wife beating, on any reasonable person's moral scale of "bad stuff people do." But current league policy on the two issues is out of whack with those beliefs. Having a beer is no big deal, as long as you don't get behind the wheel, unless you're in stage three of the NFL's substance abuse program, in which case it's worse than raping or beating women. Those priorites make zero sense to me, but I'll certainly adjust my FF valuation system to reflect them.

 

[False Start]

Just to add one last thing. I don't like comparing Blackmon to guys like Rogers. They are out of the league because they couldn't function the football field with their off-field problems. Blackmon has played very well when he's played. His problem is the new standards. In previous years, I'm sure there are tons of guys who played well and had just as bad a problems as Blackmon has. No doubt the risk of getting suspended again is very real. But I also know he can play, even when he was supposedly wasted all the time.

For me, I bought at a discount. If he flames out of the league, I'm fine with that. It's a calculated gamble. I traded for McCoy after his concussion knowing there was a decent chance the guy might have problems and turn into Javon Best. But I thought the reward was worth the risk. What I see here is people giving an 80% discount because they are scared, not because it's a smart move.

His talent and production (in the limited time) put him on par with the elites. If there was no issues we would be talking about him at the top of the WR rankings. Then again Josh Gordon is there and he also has off the field issues. He is one thread away from being gone a year himself.

Totally agree here, but IMO people are wildly under-estimating the risk with Gordon as opposed to over-estimating it with Blackmon. I want no part of Josh Gordon at his current high 1st round startup pricetag.

Bloom and Parsons have him at #3 overall.

That's not out of line with other sites or mocks / startups at all, but no thanks IMO. I see the other top shelf young WRs as far more attractive -- equally talented, more proven, less risky.

Seems strange anyone would take a guy who is one mistake from a year off instead of young guys like Dez, Julio and DT.

Yeah. I think people are looking at it from a personal / emoitional / logical standpoint as opposed to basing things on league policy. Having a legal drink or smoking some weed is nowhere near say, wife beating, on any reasonable person's moral scale of "bad stuff people do." But current league policy on the two issues is out of whack with those beliefs. Having a beer is no big deal, as long as you don't get behind the wheel, unless you're in stage three of the NFL's substance abuse program, in which case it's worse than raping or beating women. Those priorites make zero sense to me, but I'll certainly adjust my FF valuation system to reflect them.

In my eyes Gordon and Blackmon are equal talents and both are one strike away. Because of Blackmons current suspension he is treated like the plague, but with Gordon after having a season he will never have again, is given the #3 overall spot. Same upside in production value and Blackmon could be had for wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy cheaper. If he wasn't suspended currently he would still be treated like the plague and Gordon would still be #3. Its fantasy football not real life, taking a flyer on a guy with talent like that is a no brainer at his current price.