I think the sniffing the goal problem is dead on, but I don't buy the rest.
if what you say is true, then how does he get 28 carries while beating the jets, and 20+ over 7 games last year, including a whopping 33 vs denver?
w/o looking at any stats, I was under the impression that oak was a little soft vs the run, but pretty good vs the pass, and if they can take roddy white away they should be able to stay in the game vs a mediocre atl def.
I think atl is missing their left tackle, which should help some, too, and it's in oakland.
I hate being the one to defend oakland, but they got blown out by 3 of the better offenses in football (sd, no, den), along w/balt, who happens to be about the best at taking away the one thing oakland can do -- run the ball.
edit:
I'm tired and hungry, so I think I must've only read the first line of your post --- we pretty much agree on the #'s.
I thought you were making the case that he only gets 12-15 carries.