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Justin Upton (1 Viewer)

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned:

I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.

 

Eephus

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
 

Eephus

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
 

RnR

Footballguy
Anytime you are more bullish than Bill James on a player, it's time to do some self-reflection. That guy has Matt Adams with 27 dingers this season.

 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
Upton at 25 hasn't even reached his prime years yet so career highs in 2013 don't mean all that much. He wouldn't need top 3 numbers this year to be picked in the top 3 for 2014.
 

Eephus

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
Upton at 25 hasn't even reached his prime years yet so career highs in 2013 don't mean all that much. He wouldn't need top 3 numbers this year to be picked in the top 3 for 2014.
:blackdot: for March 2014
 

shadyridr

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
Upton at 25 hasn't even reached his prime years yet so career highs in 2013 don't mean all that much. He wouldn't need top 3 numbers this year to be picked in the top 3 for 2014.
just playing devils advocate here. Hes also had a ton of major league atbats
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
Upton at 25 hasn't even reached his prime years yet so career highs in 2013 don't mean all that much. He wouldn't need top 3 numbers this year to be picked in the top 3 for 2014.
:blackdot: for March 2014
So you're going to call me out a year from now? :unsure:
 

Eephus

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
Upton at 25 hasn't even reached his prime years yet so career highs in 2013 don't mean all that much. He wouldn't need top 3 numbers this year to be picked in the top 3 for 2014.
:blackdot: for March 2014
So you're going to call me out a year from now? :unsure:
Not really. It's a good thread on a player I would have loved to have taken this year but things just didn't work out that way.
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
I'm thinking he's a top 3 pick in 2014 redrafts. :banned: I've owned him and gotten burnt in the past but I'll keep going to the well because of the talent.
:shock: not seeing it
Why not? Do you not believe he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of a top 3 pick?
His ADP last year was around 1.07. He'd have to improve on 2011 to get into the top 3 range. I don't see him ever being a 30/30 guy. 15-20 SB seems like his ceiling. So he'll need to increase his HR output. It's not impossible since he's entering what should be his prime years but Turner Field will take a few dingers from him.
Whatever affect Turner Field may have on him will be offset by his mind, which I believe is in a much better place. I'm more bullish than Bill James this year, and that's saying something:105 R's35 HR's115 RBI's22 SB's.305 BA
Even if he produces those numbers and exceeds his career highs in 4 out of 5 categories, he'd still be statistically inferior to Ryan Braun who is #3 ADP this year. Braun's 2012 season beats your projection in every cat but RBI.I like Upton as a bounce back candidate this year. His NFBC ADP is around #20 although I've seen him go higher. I'd be overjoyed to have him sitting there as a round 2 pick. His inconsistency is a concern as a first rounder.
Upton at 25 hasn't even reached his prime years yet so career highs in 2013 don't mean all that much. He wouldn't need top 3 numbers this year to be picked in the top 3 for 2014.
:blackdot: for March 2014
So you're going to call me out a year from now? :unsure:
Not really. It's a good thread on a player I would have loved to have taken this year but things just didn't work out that way.
So what would be your ceiling projections for him this year? What is he really capable of?
 

Eephus

Footballguy
So what would be your ceiling projections for him this year? What is he really capable of?
.290, 27 HR, 16 SB, 100 combined RBI/R, -2.5 grit factor That's very strong production. The problem for Upton is that he achieved so much as such a young age. People project a normal maturation curve from that elevated starting point. Very few players can live up to those expectations. Miguel Cabrera is a rare exception.
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
So what would be your ceiling projections for him this year? What is he really capable of?
.290, 27 HR, 16 SB, 100 combined RBI/R, -2.5 grit factor That's very strong production. The problem for Upton is that he achieved so much as such a young age. People project a normal maturation curve from that elevated starting point. Very few players can live up to those expectations. Miguel Cabrera is a rare exception.
Those aren't very impressive "ceiling" projections. Pretty conservative I'd say.
 

Eephus

Footballguy
So what would be your ceiling projections for him this year? What is he really capable of?
.290, 27 HR, 16 SB, 100 combined RBI/R, -2.5 grit factor That's very strong production. The problem for Upton is that he achieved so much as such a young age. People project a normal maturation curve from that elevated starting point. Very few players can live up to those expectations. Miguel Cabrera is a rare exception.
Those aren't very impressive "ceiling" projections. Pretty conservative I'd say.
That's my projection. He may not have a better season that 2011 in him, but he has a great shot to be much better than 2012.
 

pantagrapher

Footballguy
Somehow landed him with the 14th pick in my keeper league (technically 15th pick, went Tulo/Upton at the 1/2 turn). Went into the draft thinking I had no shot at him.

:thumbup:

 

rascal

Footballguy
Yeah, I think I'm going to have to stop reading razzball. It's like they are trying to make WOW predictions instead of trying to be accurate. I'm looking for accuracy in rankings not headlines.

 

Annyong

Footballguy
Yeah, I think I'm going to have to stop reading razzball. It's like they are trying to make WOW predictions instead of trying to be accurate. I'm looking for accuracy in rankings not headlines.
Some of the newer writers are trying a little too hard but I stil trust Grey
 

pantagrapher

Footballguy
Yeah, I think I'm going to have to stop reading razzball. It's like they are trying to make WOW predictions instead of trying to be accurate. I'm looking for accuracy in rankings not headlines.
Razzball should be read for entertainment purposes only. I love Gray, but some of his rankings are awful. That said, the Upton projection is bullish, but reasonable.
 
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scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
Yeah, I think I'm going to have to stop reading razzball. It's like they are trying to make WOW predictions instead of trying to be accurate. I'm looking for accuracy in rankings not headlines.
Razzball should be read for entertainment purposes only. I love Gray, but some of his rankings are awful. That said, the Upton projection is bullish, but reasonable.
I follow Razzball pretty closely and if Grey's predictions are off the beaten path, it's usually for a good reason. If you want rankings based on the previous year, go somewhere else. He says as much in his ranking/projection on Justin Upton, who he has as his 10th overall pick this year.
10. Justin Upton – I saw one fantasy ‘pert has Upton in the thirties overall (rankings, not age). I understand it. It’s sooooooo (yes, 7 oh’s) much easier to just regurgitate how people ended last season. You get no grief if you rank players as they performed for the previous year. This obviously does no one any good and that ‘pert had the worst rankings for last year and has managed to outstink even that for this year. Also, I updated Upton’s blurb at the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball when he was traded. 2013 Projections: 100/28/104/.284/19
 

Michael Brown

Footballguy
Assuming relatively good health (as is the case for all players), the only concern I have, and it's a small one, is the move to a new ballpark. Home/road gets overblown to some extent, but he's been much better in Zona than anywhere else in his career.

That being said, I see no reason why his floor wouldn't be at least his 2011 production level. In 2011 he was 105-31-88-21-289 as a 23-year-old. Most of these so-called "bullish" projections for 2013 don't have him even reaching THOSE totals, and I'm not sure why. The kid has been lauded as being insanely talented for a long time now, but after one off year we're ready to say he peaked at 23? I don't get it.

It was pretty apparent that he was hurting for much of 2012, and still wasn't a complete bust. I have a hard time thinking he won't put up career best numbers in almost every category now that he's healthy and happy, so I like this as a floor:

100-30-100-10-285

With the upside for:

110-40-120-15-300

And the reality is probably right between those numbers

 
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Mr. Pickles

Footballguy
I'm pretty much of the mind that Justin Upton's monster year where he puts it all together just isn't going to happen. Kind of like his brother.

 

pollardsvision

Footballguy
I'm pretty much of the mind that Justin Upton's monster year where he puts it all together just isn't going to happen. Kind of like his brother.
What do you mean by "putting it all together" exactly?

He's 25 and already has 2 seasons that, for all but about 5 OFs on the planet, would be considered "putting it all together".

In his "bad" seasons, he's still a somewhat rare power-speed threat that will actually be an asset for OBP or AVG too.

Not much at all like his 28 YO brother that hasn't hit .250 since Bush was in office.

 

Spartans Rule

Footballguy
Assuming relatively good health (as is the case for all players), the only concern I have, and it's a small one, is the move to a new ballpark. Home/road gets overblown to some extent, but he's been much better in Zona than anywhere else in his career.That being said, I see no reason why his floor wouldn't be at least his 2011 production level. In 2011 he was 105-31-88-21-289 as a 23-year-old. Most of these so-called "bullish" projections for 2013 don't have him even reaching THOSE totals, and I'm not sure why. The kid has been lauded as being insanely talented for a long time now, but after one off year we're ready to say he peaked at 23? I don't get it.It was pretty apparent that he was hurting for much of 2012, and still wasn't a complete bust. I have a hard time thinking he won't put up career best numbers in almost every category now that he's healthy and happy, so I like this as a floor:100-30-100-10-285With the upside for:110-40-120-15-300And the reality is probably right between those numbers
Two of the past three seasons, Upton had 17 HRs and a sub-800 OPS. That's his floor, that he does that again.

It's silly to use the best year of his career as a starting point and then add to it.

 

Michael Brown

Footballguy
Assuming relatively good health (as is the case for all players), the only concern I have, and it's a small one, is the move to a new ballpark. Home/road gets overblown to some extent, but he's been much better in Zona than anywhere else in his career.That being said, I see no reason why his floor wouldn't be at least his 2011 production level. In 2011 he was 105-31-88-21-289 as a 23-year-old. Most of these so-called "bullish" projections for 2013 don't have him even reaching THOSE totals, and I'm not sure why. The kid has been lauded as being insanely talented for a long time now, but after one off year we're ready to say he peaked at 23? I don't get it.It was pretty apparent that he was hurting for much of 2012, and still wasn't a complete bust. I have a hard time thinking he won't put up career best numbers in almost every category now that he's healthy and happy, so I like this as a floor:100-30-100-10-285With the upside for:110-40-120-15-300And the reality is probably right between those numbers
Two of the past three seasons, Upton had 17 HRs and a sub-800 OPS. That's his floor, that he does that again.

It's silly to use the best year of his career as a starting point and then add to it.
It's silly to use the worst years of a guy's career when he wasn't even 25 to say that's his floor. He already showed at 23 what he was capable of, and for 99% of players with his skill set, they get better as they approach their prime. He was clearly hurt last year, so I think a starting point of his age 23 season is/was reasonable.

 

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