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Kap and Cam. Can talent overcome (lack of) weapons? (1 Viewer)

rawdog

Footballguy
Kaepernick, Newton- 2 QB I'd love to buy into on freakish talent, but the so-so supporting casts seem like they'll hold them back. Neither exactly has Matt Ryan's weapons.

Can they truly flourish without even average weaponry?

Anybody have some historical cases where talent trumps help?

 

Warhogs

Footballguy
I share some of those concerns with Kaepernick but not much. Is Crabtree really a huge difference maker? I'm not sure he has lost that much for weapons. Cam doesn't have the greatest weapons either but it's not like he lost anyone from last year.

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
I don't get the question for Cam. Kaepernick, sure, since we have a small sample size that leaned really heavily on Crabtree, but Cam has had most of the same guys since he came into the league and has been a top QB both years.

 

famousb

Footballguy
Cam will not be running as much this year, at least not by design, as CAR moves away from the read option with Shula as OC.

If you expect greatness, you better hope his passing numbers go up; and the CAR WR corps is less than stellar.

Though I do still think he is a special talent, I'd just be wary of too lofty of expectations.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
Boldin won't be able to account for all of Crabtree's production, but Vernon Davis was pretty underused last regular season so he can make up the difference. Smith and Olsen are the same weapons Cam has had for the last two years. If LaFell and Edwards are halfway decent, he might actually have more weapons than he's had in his career. Boldin+VDavis are approximately equal to Smith and Olsen. Not an embarrassment of riches, but enough to produce.

The questions related to Cam and Kaep's value probably has more to do with offensive scheme, play-calling, quality of defense and caliber of opponents. I don't think weapons are going to be a serious limitation for either.

.....if only one of these teams would just SIGN BRANDON LLOYD.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
Kaepernick, Newton- 2 QB I'd love to buy into on freakish talent, but the so-so supporting casts seem like they'll hold them back. Neither exactly has Matt Ryan's weapons.

Can they truly flourish without even average weaponry?

Anybody have some historical cases where talent trumps help?
Fantasy purposes--yes when you are a "running qb."

Fantasy purposes--not so much if you cannot or will not run--see Brady pre Welker and Moss.

Real life--if you're good, you're good, no worries. See Brady winning superbowls with avg wrs (yes, i know t.brown was not all bad).

 
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Mortimer Ichabod

Footballguy
Is Crabtree really a huge difference maker?
1100yds and 9tds.

Id say yes
Boldin will pick up 1000 and 7 as the top WR. Crabtree will barely be missed.

Id say no.
Half of the season was played with Alex Smith. If you project Crabtree's numbers over a full season with Kap, it came out to something ridiculous like 1400 yds and 15 TDs. He was a beast with Kaepernick....I don't think Boldin can replace that.

 

5-ish Finkle

Footballguy
Cam will not be running as much this year, at least not by design, as CAR moves away from the read option with Shula as OC.

If you expect greatness, you better hope his passing numbers go up; and the CAR WR corps is less than stellar.

Though I do still think he is a special talent, I'd just be wary of too lofty of expectations.
The latter part of last year, about the last month and a half, they had went away from a lot of the designed runs for him anyway, if we are to believe their coaching staff anyway. That's pretty much right around when Cam took off and his passing numbers spiked. Still managed about 350 yards rushing and 4 rush TDs in that time period.

He's still going to run when plays break down and he's still likely to be the #1a option at the stripe. I don't see a lot of reason to downgrade him.

 

rizzler

Footballguy
Boldin and Crabtree are polar opposite type receivers.

To say either would replace the other's production is a crapshoot. Both on the field would be immense.

But Kap w Crabtree was aces

 

SayWhat?

Footballguy
Is Crabtree really a huge difference maker?
1100yds and 9tds.

Id say yes
Boldin will pick up 1000 and 7 as the top WR. Crabtree will barely be missed.

Id say no.
Half of the season was played with Alex Smith. If you project Crabtree's numbers over a full season with Kap, it came out to something ridiculous like 1400 yds and 15 TDs. He was a beast with Kaepernick....I don't think Boldin can replace that.
So whom made whom? I think you can safely say that Kaep made Crabtree more than Crabtree made Kaep, considering Crabtree's history pre-Kaep. Does losing Crabtree hurt Kaep? Of course, it was his number 1 WR. But I don't think it's ultimately going to be that impactful of a loss from a purely fantasy perspective.

 

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
Ironcially Cam, Keap, and RG3 all have pretty weak WR cores compared to a lot of teams. But the rushing yards and TDs still make them elite. Of course a healthy F. Davis and Garcon would give Robert at least 2 nice options.

 

FDC

Footballguy
I think Cam is probably in his best situation weapon wise since he entered actually.

With that said I'm shying away from him at his current ADP - less rush TDs with the new offense.

 

PhantomJB

Footballguy
What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.

In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.

However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).

I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.

In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.

However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).

I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.
this is because if I believe that kaep and cam with "get theirs" it will be because of their running--not necessarily because they are racking up a ton of passing yards and throwing a ton to their number 1 wrs.

Think of it this way, where would you rank Kaepernick and Newton if they ran for zero yards?

If it would not be as high, no disconnect exists between the wrs and their qbs.

If somehow those qbs would still rank highly in your eyes without the rushing yards, then take advantage of that perceived disconnect between the wrs and their qbs (draft the wrs).

 
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Concept Coop

Footballguy
Cam will not be running as much this year, at least not by design, as CAR moves away from the read option with Shula as OC.

If you expect greatness, you better hope his passing numbers go up; and the CAR WR corps is less than stellar.

Though I do still think he is a special talent, I'd just be wary of too lofty of expectations.
They are going back to what they did in 2011. Cam had just as many carries. Them going away from the read option is going to do great things for his numbers.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
My gut tells me we have seen Newtons ceiling. Kapernick not yet.weapons would certainly help both.
Cam was the 4th QB each of the last 2 years in my league. That might be his ceiling, but it's a really high ceiling. How many current NFL QBs have had more than 1 top 5 finish over the last 5 or so years? Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning. Anyone else? It's hard for me to we Kapernick's ceiling being any higher. Does anyone really think he is capable of anything more than 4000/700 yards and 35 TDs?

 

PhantomJB

Footballguy
What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.

In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.

However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).

I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.
this is because if I believe that kaep and cam with "get theirs" it will be because of their running--not necessarily because they are racking up a ton of passing yards and throwing a ton to their number 1 wrs.

Think of it this way, where would you rank Kaepernick and Newton if they ran for zero yards?

If it would not be as high, no disconnect exists between the wrs and their qbs.

If somehow those qbs would still rank highly in your eyes without the rushing yards, then take advantage of that perceived disconnect between the wrs and their qbs (draft the wrs).
I understand the impact of running on Cam and Kaep's numbers and rankings. I'm strictly talking about passing yards. CAR is the best case.

Cam has been able to achieve about 4K passing yards over the past two years, and Steve Smith has accounted for roughly 32% of those passing yards. On average 1,284 per year.

However, the perception baked into this year's WR rankings seems to be that Smith has lost a step, or is at injury risk because of his age, and that he won't sniff those numbers again this year. Therefore, even though Smith has finished, on average, at WR13 with Cam throwing to him, his ADP has taken a huge hit down to WR27.

What I'm saying is that if you believe there is significant injury risk for Steve Smith that causes his ADP to fall so much, then that same injury risk factor should get baked into Cam's ADP. With such a huge dropoff between Smith and Lafell, etc., there is no way Cam will throw for 4K yards to the rest of that crew (IMO).

An analogy would be Megatron and Stafford. If Megatron had the same injury risk as, say, Hakeem Nicks, then his ADP would be whacked appropriately. But you would also whack Stafford's a proportionate amount.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
What I'm saying is that if you believe there is significant injury risk for Steve Smith that causes his ADP to fall so much, then that same injury risk factor should get baked into Cam's ADP. With such a huge dropoff between Smith and Lafell, etc., there is no way Cam will throw for 4K yards to the rest of that crew (IMO).

An analogy would be Megatron and Stafford. If Megatron had the same injury risk as, say, Hakeem Nicks, then his ADP would be whacked appropriately. But you would also whack Stafford's a proportionate amount.
Cam's production is clearly less reliant on Smith than Stafford's is on Calvin. And I do think Newton could throw for 4K without Smith, as long as the Panthers could run the ball as they did in 2011.

 
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What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.

In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.

However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).

I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.
this is because if I believe that kaep and cam with "get theirs" it will be because of their running--not necessarily because they are racking up a ton of passing yards and throwing a ton to their number 1 wrs.

Think of it this way, where would you rank Kaepernick and Newton if they ran for zero yards?

If it would not be as high, no disconnect exists between the wrs and their qbs.

If somehow those qbs would still rank highly in your eyes without the rushing yards, then take advantage of that perceived disconnect between the wrs and their qbs (draft the wrs).
I understand the impact of running on Cam and Kaep's numbers and rankings. I'm strictly talking about passing yards. CAR is the best case.

Cam has been able to achieve about 4K passing yards over the past two years, and Steve Smith has accounted for roughly 32% of those passing yards. On average 1,284 per year.

However, the perception baked into this year's WR rankings seems to be that Smith has lost a step, or is at injury risk because of his age, and that he won't sniff those numbers again this year. Therefore, even though Smith has finished, on average, at WR13 with Cam throwing to him, his ADP has taken a huge hit down to WR27.

What I'm saying is that if you believe there is significant injury risk for Steve Smith that causes his ADP to fall so much, then that same injury risk factor should get baked into Cam's ADP. With such a huge dropoff between Smith and Lafell, etc., there is no way Cam will throw for 4K yards to the rest of that crew (IMO).

An analogy would be Megatron and Stafford. If Megatron had the same injury risk as, say, Hakeem Nicks, then his ADP would be whacked appropriately. But you would also whack Stafford's a proportionate amount.
Smith finished 20th last year and his adp is 27. Which is basically the same tier. Smith has little upside for most people so he is going to fall a little bit as most people prefer to draft the higher upside guy. I don't think a drop in production is reflected in Smiths adp just a low ceiling. I have Smith at 21.

 
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PhantomJB

Footballguy
What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.

In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.

However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).

I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.
this is because if I believe that kaep and cam with "get theirs" it will be because of their running--not necessarily because they are racking up a ton of passing yards and throwing a ton to their number 1 wrs.

Think of it this way, where would you rank Kaepernick and Newton if they ran for zero yards?

If it would not be as high, no disconnect exists between the wrs and their qbs.

If somehow those qbs would still rank highly in your eyes without the rushing yards, then take advantage of that perceived disconnect between the wrs and their qbs (draft the wrs).
I understand the impact of running on Cam and Kaep's numbers and rankings. I'm strictly talking about passing yards. CAR is the best case.

Cam has been able to achieve about 4K passing yards over the past two years, and Steve Smith has accounted for roughly 32% of those passing yards. On average 1,284 per year.

However, the perception baked into this year's WR rankings seems to be that Smith has lost a step, or is at injury risk because of his age, and that he won't sniff those numbers again this year. Therefore, even though Smith has finished, on average, at WR13 with Cam throwing to him, his ADP has taken a huge hit down to WR27.

What I'm saying is that if you believe there is significant injury risk for Steve Smith that causes his ADP to fall so much, then that same injury risk factor should get baked into Cam's ADP. With such a huge dropoff between Smith and Lafell, etc., there is no way Cam will throw for 4K yards to the rest of that crew (IMO).

An analogy would be Megatron and Stafford. If Megatron had the same injury risk as, say, Hakeem Nicks, then his ADP would be whacked appropriately. But you would also whack Stafford's a proportionate amount.
Smith finished 20th last year and his adp is 27. Which is basically the same tier. Smith has little upside for most people so he is going to fall a little bit as most people prefer to draft the higher upside guy. I don't think a drop in production is reflected in Smiths adp just a low ceiling. I have Smith at 21.
Little upside? Smith finished 6th in 2011 with Cam throwing to him. Seems like decent upside for ADP27.

Smith was 12th in yards in 2012. His overall ranking was low because of abnormally low TD's, which we know are variable (ask Jordy Nelson).

I'm not looking to derail the thread (although it is somewhat about the talent surrounding Cam), so I'll just leave it that IMO there is no way Cam will achieve ADP QB4 unless Smith is healthy. And if Smith is healthy then there is huge value in his current ADP if he achieves on average what Cam has delivered to him the last two years.

 

chinawildman

Footballguy
I think alot of people are forgetting that Kendall Hunter, Kyle Williams, and Manningham were lost for the season during Kap's second start. So the actual comparison in its entirety should be:

Gained: Boldin, Manningham, Williams, Hunter, Patton, McDonald

Lost: Crabtree, Moss, Ginn, Hall, Walker

Look to me he didn't lose much at all, and may in fact be starting w a better supporting cast than during the playoff run last season.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.

In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.

However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).

I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.
this is because if I believe that kaep and cam with "get theirs" it will be because of their running--not necessarily because they are racking up a ton of passing yards and throwing a ton to their number 1 wrs.Think of it this way, where would you rank Kaepernick and Newton if they ran for zero yards?

If it would not be as high, no disconnect exists between the wrs and their qbs.

If somehow those qbs would still rank highly in your eyes without the rushing yards, then take advantage of that perceived disconnect between the wrs and their qbs (draft the wrs).
I understand the impact of running on Cam and Kaep's numbers and rankings. I'm strictly talking about passing yards. CAR is the best case.

Cam has been able to achieve about 4K passing yards over the past two years, and Steve Smith has accounted for roughly 32% of those passing yards. On average 1,284 per year.

However, the perception baked into this year's WR rankings seems to be that Smith has lost a step, or is at injury risk because of his age, and that he won't sniff those numbers again this year. Therefore, even though Smith has finished, on average, at WR13 with Cam throwing to him, his ADP has taken a huge hit down to WR27.

What I'm saying is that if you believe there is significant injury risk for Steve Smith that causes his ADP to fall so much, then that same injury risk factor should get baked into Cam's ADP. With such a huge dropoff between Smith and Lafell, etc., there is no way Cam will throw for 4K yards to the rest of that crew (IMO).

An analogy would be Megatron and Stafford. If Megatron had the same injury risk as, say, Hakeem Nicks, then his ADP would be whacked appropriately. But you would also whack Stafford's a proportionate amount.
Smith finished 20th last year and his adp is 27. Which is basically the same tier. Smith has little upside for most people so he is going to fall a little bit as most people prefer to draft the higher upside guy. I don't think a drop in production is reflected in Smiths adp just a low ceiling. I have Smith at 21.
Little upside? Smith finished 6th in 2011 with Cam throwing to him. Seems like decent upside for ADP27.

Smith was 12th in yards in 2012. His overall ranking was low because of abnormally low TD's, which we know are variable (ask Jordy Nelson).

I'm not looking to derail the thread (although it is somewhat about the talent surrounding Cam), so I'll just leave it that IMO there is no way Cam will achieve ADP QB4 unless Smith is healthy. And if Smith is healthy then there is huge value in his current ADP if he achieves on average what Cam has delivered to him the last two years.
I have to agree, his ADP is money right now. Looking at one major ADP site, they have him as the 71st player, 27th WR. If you look at what he has done with and without Cam, his numbers suggest he will finish much higher. With Cam he has caught 154 balls, 2500 yards and 11 TDs. Averaged out to about 77 catches, 1250 yards and 5.5 TDs. Those are #2 WR numbers at a WR3 price. Guys going directly after him are Tavon Austin,Ty Hilton, and Anquan Boldin. There is a major dropoff in WR after Smith.

 

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