What I don't get is the ADP disconnect between Cam and Steve Smith and Kaep and Boldin.
In other words, if you believe Cam and Kaep are gonna get theirs, then it stands to reason you also believe their #1 receiving options will get theirs as well. This is because, especially in Cam's case, there is a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 receivers.
However, Smith is currently going ADP WR27 (source: FFC) after finishing 19th and 6th the last two years. Boldin at WR30 even though he stands to pick up most of the slack from Crabtree's production (WR14 last year).
I can't see either Cam or Kaep having the kind of years they are projected to have without bringing along a primary WR option that finishes Top 15.
this is because if I believe that kaep and cam with "get theirs" it will be because of their running--not necessarily because they are racking up a ton of passing yards and throwing a ton to their number 1 wrs.
Think of it this way, where would you rank Kaepernick and Newton if they ran for zero yards?
If it would not be as high, no disconnect exists between the wrs and their qbs.
If somehow those qbs would still rank highly in your eyes without the rushing yards, then take advantage of that perceived disconnect between the wrs and their qbs (draft the wrs).
I understand the impact of running on Cam and Kaep's numbers and rankings. I'm strictly talking about passing yards. CAR is the best case.
Cam has been able to achieve about 4K passing yards over the past two years, and Steve Smith has accounted for roughly 32% of those passing yards. On average 1,284 per year.
However, the perception baked into this year's WR rankings seems to be that Smith has lost a step, or is at injury risk because of his age, and that he won't sniff those numbers again this year. Therefore, even though Smith has finished, on average, at WR13 with Cam throwing to him, his ADP has taken a huge hit down to WR27.
What I'm saying is that if you believe there is significant injury risk for Steve Smith that causes his ADP to fall so much,
then that same injury risk factor should get baked into Cam's ADP. With such a huge dropoff between Smith and Lafell, etc., there is no way Cam will throw for 4K yards to the rest of that crew (IMO).
An analogy would be Megatron and Stafford. If Megatron had the same injury risk as, say, Hakeem Nicks, then his ADP would be whacked appropriately. But you would also whack Stafford's a proportionate amount.