What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

KDS “Kentucky derby style” Drafting: what’s your preferred order of preference? (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
For those who play in KDS leagues, where once your name is pulled, you get to choose your draft slot, what’s your preferred order & why?
 
Last edited:

Deamon

Footballguy
For those who play in KTS leagues, where once your name is pulled, you get to choose your draft slot, what’s your preferred order & why?
I would say the vast majority of KTS is 3RR, so any conversation in here about that is likely skewed that way. In non 3RR, I'd just go for the higher pick so this is all a moot point for your league. If you love someone at 10, just take him at 5. Sure your 2nd rounder is worse, but your 3rd is also better. Don't overthink it, KDS should only really be a big thinking point in 3rr leagues.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I would say the vast majority of KTS is 3RR, so any conversation in here about that is likely skewed that way. In non 3RR, I'd just go for the higher pick so this is all a moot point for your league. If you love someone at 10, just take him at 5. Sure your 2nd rounder is worse, but your 3rd is also better. Don't overthink it, KDS should only really be a big thinking point in 3rr leagues.
Interesting take.

I’ve only played in 3RR leagues this year, yet my home IDP PPR redraft has been KDS for a decade now.

I prefer the order as follows:
1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 11, 10, 9, 5, 8, 6, 7

I might even like 12 over 4.

Being at, or near a turn can give you a huge advantage. And having a “short side” where fewer picks are going between you picks can make risk-taking / gambling that someone will fall to you in the next round a bit less risky.

IMO, 3RR doesn’t necessarily favor the later picks, I’ve read that the early picks still have an an advantage. You’ve got a top ~5 pick, then a top ~24 pick, then you still get the 3.12-4.01 turn where an awful lot of WR & RB value slides. The 12 pick gets 12-13, and 25, but then has to wait until 4.12/5.01 for the next picks,

It’s an interesting scenario, and I really do like the 3RR, but I disagree strongly that it’s as simple as in non-3RR / standard snake, just take highest pick,

I’d much rather have 12, 11 or 10 than 6-7-8, and it’s not close, not just for the first couple players being potently value picks (think Adams/Mixon, or Diggs/Barkley, Kelce/Diggs, etc) but throughout the draft those 13-17 picks between every single pick can be maddening when drafting in the middle.

I detest 6-7-8.
 
Last edited:

Deamon

Footballguy
I would say the vast majority of KTS is 3RR, so any conversation in here about that is likely skewed that way. In non 3RR, I'd just go for the higher pick so this is all a moot point for your league. If you love someone at 10, just take him at 5. Sure your 2nd rounder is worse, but your 3rd is also better. Don't overthink it, KDS should only really be a big thinking point in 3rr leagues.
Interesting take.

I’ve only played in 3RR leagues this year, yet my home IDP PPR redraft has been KTS for a decade now.

I prefer the order as follows:
1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 11, 10, 9, 5, 8, 6, 7

I might even like 12 over 4.

Being at, or near a turn can give you a huge advantage. And having a “short side” where fewer picks are going between you picks can make risk-taking / gambling that someone will fall to you in the next round a bit less risky.

IMO, 3RR doesn’t necessarily favor the later picks, I’ve read that the early picks still have an an advantage. You’ve got a top ~5 pick, then a top ~24 pick, then you still get the 3.12-4.01 turn where an awful lot of WR & RB value slides. The 12 pick gets 12-13, and 25, but then has to wait until 4.12/5.01 for the next picks,

It’s an interesting scenario, and I really do like the 3RR, but I disagree strongly that it’s as simple as in non-3RR / standard snake, just take highest pick,

I’d much rather have 12, 11 or 10 than 6-7-8, and it’s not close, not just for the first couple players being potently value picks (think Adams/Mixon, or Diggs/Barkley, Kelce/Diggs, etc) but throughout the draft those 13-17 picks between every single pick can be maddening when drafting in the middle.

I detest 6-7-8.
Being at the turn is a huge disadvantage. You can't maximize value from your opponents. If you're at 3.11 for example, and you know the guy at 3.12/4.01 already has taken a QB, you can completely skip the QB you want at 3.11 because you're sure he will fall to you at 4.02. Or if he already has 2 WR and probably will go RB, you take the RB at 3.11 and your wideout at 4.02 because you know he'll fall. This is a huge advantage imo, so I hate the very end. Also you're waiting forever for picks.

3RR by definition adds value to the later picks. Any pick calculator etc out there shows this... the value of a higher 3rd/lower 4th is better than the value of a low 3rd/high 4th. Same as an NFL draft, same as a fantasy draft. 1/24/25/48 hold more weight and value than 12/13/36/37

Derby draft selections were specifically made for 3RR drafts and that's where it originated. Sure there's exceptions all over the place, but there's 'what spot should i select in my Derby" threads all the time and it's always for 3RR.

You're valuing guys much different than most people. You said you hated pick 5 in PPR because you hate CMC and don't want him. Well, he's going 1.02 in almost every draft, so you are the exception, not the rule. In Full PPR, there's great arguments that any of the top 5 are the best picks, so I love 1-2-3-4-5 if its not 3RR. And really, you can sweat over "i like pick 20 over pick 21!" but that is overblown as you get a better 3rd round pick (in non 3rr) and the safety of getting your guy at 4 over 5 is valuable especially when an injury can happen before your draft.

Here's how I personally rank the draft slots in PPR 3RR:

1
2
3
4
5
11
10
6
12
7
9
8

In non 3RR PPR:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
I love Derby and have it in almost all my leagues for many many years, and all are 3RR. Don't overthink it, get a high pick because someone you don't think could make it to you quite possibly could. In your specific league where you're confident that CMC and Ekeler aren't even taken in the top 4 or 5 picks, then I dunno what to tell you but that's an outlier.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
@Deamon - we all have our takes.

Looking at real drafts I’ve seen Mixon/Adams at the 12 more than a few times.

In that scenario I get a top 5 WR & a top 5 RB, with potential for more.

Then I get back to back picks the entire draft.

You’re overly focused on the 1st round, IMO. There’s extreme value in picking at, or close to a turn.

Your non-3RR list isn’t that far off from mine; though I’d never want 6 over 12. With 6 you’re looking at 10 picks on your “short side” as compared to B2B every round.

And yeah - I’d much rather start this year with a WR, if I don’t get JT. It’s really yearly specific. I see a lot of risk in CMC (injury, Foreman vulturing TDs, reduced workload) and Eke (injury, potentially significant TD regression) and would prefer a dominant top 5 WR there, but that’s also because I see a huge drop-off at WR in the 2nd and several value RBs falling there, or, if fortunate, a WR-WR start.

I’m more about the VBD & overall team build. For that reason I prefer 12 over 6. Otherwise we’re not that far off.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Good article on KDS here
Yep - I’ve read that. Agree with some of it. Disagree with some of it. Rotowire has a lot of takes. I’m not on board with many of them. I don’t care for their rankings much either.
Ya I dislike them overall, but they were one of the first articles I found when searching for some historical reasoning for KDS.

I'm all for KDS, I love it and it's a lot of fun. Also makes more people happy with their draft slot. Really doesn't have any downsides at all, even if it isn't a 3rr and even if people just go 1-12 in order, it's still fun.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
@Deamon - we all have our takes.

Looking at real drafts I’ve seen Mixon/Adams at the 12 more than a few times.

In that scenario I get a top 5 WR & a top 5 RB, with potential for more.

Then I get back to back picks the entire draft.

You’re overly focused on the 1st round, IMO. There’s extreme value in picking at, or close to a turn.

Your non-3RR list isn’t that far off from mine; though I’d never want 6 over 12. With 6 you’re looking at 10 picks on your “short side” as compared to B2B every round.

And yeah - I’d much rather start this year with a WR, if I don’t get JT. It’s really yearly specific. I see a lot of risk in CMC (injury, Foreman vulturing TDs, reduced workload) and Eke (injury, potentially significant TD regression) and would prefer a dominant top 5 WR there, but that’s also because I see a huge drop-off at WR in the 2nd and several value RBs falling there, or, if fortunate, a WR-WR start.

I’m more about the VBD & overall team build. For that reason I prefer 12 over 6. Otherwise we’re not that far off.
Ya if you can get Mixon/Adams then you're in great shape. 3.11 as your next pick isn't the most fun though.

I don't really get the value at the turn at all, but that's just me. You lose the advantage to get value IMO. You're never more than 12 picks away from your next pick so the amount you "reach" over adp is smaller on average than if you pick at pick 12 and hve 24 picks until your next pick.

I personally love 6 in PPR because I see a big drop off after: Taylor, CMC, Ekeler, Kupp, JJ, Chase. I'm getting one of those guys and I'm thrilled at pick 6, vs the big drop off (again, in my opinion) to adams/diggs/cook/mixon/harris/etc who you get at pick 7. And not like 18 is THAT much better than 19. 7 I have in one PPR league and I'm preying the top 6 doesn't go chalk and I don't miss out on the clear top 6. Once you hit 8 though, getting one of the big6 is pretty unlikely so I'd rather go later on (in 3rr of course).

I'm all about VBD too, but add up the FBG VBD numbers on the Draft Dominator of picks 6+19 vs 12+13 and VBD is higher with 6+19. If you're not doing 3RR, throw in 6+19+30 vs 12+13+24 and the number is even more imbalanced. And if you want to even add pick 4, 6+19+30+43 is still quite a bit higher than 12+13+24+25. We could go on all day by adding more rounds, but you get the point. Earlier pick = higher VBD. If you disagree with their rankings and rank someone like adams as a top 6 guy (like i know you do), then sure, take 10 cause you can get him there.

BUt overall, yes KDS was made for 3RR leagues.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
It's an interesting approach, but it also is only relevant for 1 round. Fantasy leagues often aren't won or lost in the 1st round. Then when ADP is considered, it's a bit too simplistic of a way of doing things.

In my earlier example, both Mixon (5) and Adams (4) are in my top tier of RB and WR. If you get say, the 5th crack at the draft board, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, are gone, then wouldn't I be better off with 12th position, considering I could get both Mixon & Adams there, as opposed to taking 1.06, where I'd only get Adams?

Seems like a heck of a lot more to it than simply planning for your 1st pick.

Often you'll get a choice of 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 because 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, 12 go before those. So in that scenario I'm likely to take 9 for the shorter turn and the better chance of getting one of my top tier guys in the 1st, then a small drop-off just 6 picks later. If I go 5 there, then I get a top 5 player on my board, but have to wait 14 picks until my 2nd, and then 10 picks until my 3rd.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
Yep I usually do this, but I will jump it up ONE spot in case of injury/drop off. If I have a tier of 8 then sharp drop off, and I pick slot 8, and then Taylor gets hurt or CMC retires or Ekeler loses the starting job, or Kupp gets suspended, etc, then you really screwed yourself over. So in this case I'd pick 7th so you have that room for unexpected things to come up.

(again this is all based on 3rr which the majority of KDS leagues use)
 

The Dude

Footballguy
its not set in stone as some seem to state.

it’s dependent on the talent in each draft. Titus’ idea above works as a start but I usually expect a top 6 pick is preferred so I often mock the top 30 players and choose the best trio based on draft spot.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Ya if you can get Mixon/Adams then you're in great shape. 3.11 as your next pick isn't the most fun though.
But 4.01 can be a lot of fun.

And there's no gambling that you should take X over Y, because you get back to back picks.

In IDP in particular, values slide to 3.12/4.01 all the time. Likewise with 5.12/6.01, where defensive runs are likely to start.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
its not set in stone as some seem to state.

it’s dependent on the talent in each draft. Titus’ idea above works as a start but I usually expect a top 6 pick is preferred so I often mock the top 30 players and choose the best trio based on draft spot.
IMO this is the correct response in that line of thought. It's not only about the 1st pick. The overall draft landscape matters. The number of picks between your picks matters. The league format, and the people you play with matters.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
It's an interesting approach, but it also is only relevant for 1 round. Fantasy leagues often aren't won or lost in the 1st round. Then when ADP is considered, it's a bit too simplistic of a way of doing things.

In my earlier example, both Mixon (5) and Adams (4) are in my top tier of RB and WR. If you get say, the 5th crack at the draft board, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, are gone, then wouldn't I be better off with 12th position, considering I could get both Mixon & Adams there, as opposed to taking 1.06, where I'd only get Adams?

Seems like a heck of a lot more to it than simply planning for your 1st pick.

Often you'll get a choice of 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 because 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, 12 go before those. So in that scenario I'm likely to take 9 for the shorter turn and the better chance of getting one of my top tier guys in the 1st, then a small drop-off just 6 picks later. If I go 5 there, then I get a top 5 player on my board, but have to wait 14 picks until my 2nd, and then 10 picks until my 3rd.
No.
Well first of all if you get the 5th crack at the draft board then its impossible for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 to be gone ;)
Second of all, no 12 would not be better because Adams and Mixon might not both be there (ADP shows that they "SHOULDN"T" both be there). If you take pick 6, one of your very top guys can still fall to you... your 2nd pick isn't as good but your 3rd is better. You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I'm all about VBD too, but add up the FBG VBD numbers on the Draft Dominator of picks 6+19 vs 12+13 and VBD is higher with 6+19. If you're not doing 3RR, throw in 6+19+30 vs 12+13+24 and the number is even more imbalanced. And if you want to even add pick 4, 6+19+30+43 is still quite a bit higher than 12+13+24+25. We could go on all day by adding more rounds, but you get the point. Earlier pick = higher VBD. If you disagree with their rankings and rank someone like adams as a top 6 guy (like i know you do), then sure, take 10 cause you can get him there.
While true on paper, you know as well as I do that drafts don't always go chalk - especially if you're drafting with experienced FF managers. So the more picks between your picks, the greater the chance of missing your top choices. When you're at 6, that's going to happen every round. It gets super frustrating.

Now that said, I've drafted and won leagues from 6-7-8 before. Values can fall to you, but you MUST be the stopper, team build be damned. Those are the spots you must be more on your toes, and scoop up every player that falls too far. IMO one can be successful from 6-7-8, but it's a higher stress position to draft from.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Second of all, no 12 would not be better because Adams and Mixon might not both be there (ADP shows that they "SHOULDN"T" both be there). If you take pick 6, one of your very top guys can still fall to you... your 2nd pick isn't as good but your 3rd is better. You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
It was just an example. It could be Barkley/Adams or Kelce/Mixon or some other combination of players I'd be thrilled to have that you could much more rarely, if ever, get both from the 6 spot.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
Again: I've been doing KDS for 10+ years in my home league because I believe it's more fair. Why should the last name picked get a better draft spot than the name picked 7th or 8th?

We voted it in unanimously and have never looked back.

I'd never heard of 3RR until this year. :shrug:

I don't think I'm overthinking it at all - I just think I value being on the turn more than you. We all have our styles and strategies.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
its not set in stone as some seem to state.

it’s dependent on the talent in each draft. Titus’ idea above works as a start but I usually expect a top 6 pick is preferred so I often mock the top 30 players and choose the best trio based on draft spot.
IMO this is the correct response in that line of thought. It's not only about the 1st pick. The overall draft landscape matters. The number of picks between your picks matters. The league format, and the people you play with matters.
Yes, correct. But in fantasy, less time between your picks = more value and less reaching.We can all argue about this years rankings, but I'll go off of FBG ranks just for a general idea. This year there's a clear top 5.5 players in PPR: In order (again, their rankings)

Kupp- 174
CMC- 173
Taylor- 163
JJ- 148
Ekeler- 146
Chase- 133

DROP OFF

Henry- 114
Mixon- 113
Diggs- 109
Cook- 108
Adams- 108
Swift- 102
Harris-100
Meaning IF it goes chalk based on FBG VBD (it never would), then 12+13 is 202 value points, and 1+24 (Kupp plus Andrews 78 in this case) is 252. There's almost never a scenario where I'd think 12 was in the same ballpark as 1 in terms of value. Getting the 1st pick of the 3rd round (3rr) obviously brings those numbers closer together. So from a VBD standpoint, in a non 3RR league, earlier is better. And from a 'reaching' standpoint, drafting on a turn is not maximizing value. So the only reason to take 12 in a non 3rr draft would be if you really see a tier drop after 13 or 14 picks.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Second of all, no 12 would not be better because Adams and Mixon might not both be there (ADP shows that they "SHOULDN"T" both be there). If you take pick 6, one of your very top guys can still fall to you... your 2nd pick isn't as good but your 3rd is better. You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
It was just an example. It could be Barkley/Adams or Kelce/Mixon or some other combination of players I'd be thrilled to have that you could much more rarely, if ever, get both from the 6 spot.
Sure but you can get a better player than the guy you get at 12. Not as good of a player as you can get round 2, but then still a better player you can get round 3. We're going in circles here. Bottom line is pick where you like, but KDS was made specifically for 3RR leagues.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Why should the last name picked get a better draft spot than the name picked 7th or 8th?
He doesn't.
Look Im not arguing against KDS. I love it. Do what you want to do, but I think selecting 12 over 6 in a non 3rr redraft ppr is a big mistake and numbers show a big decrease in overall value. But if you personally like the long break or having back to back picks then good on you, take pick 12 and have fun with it. But you're gonna be reaching hard for Davis at 4.12 or else not getting him at all ;)
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
He doesn't.
Some would argue differently.

in fact, 11 of the 12 members of my league would pick 12, 11, 12 over 6-7-8

7 is the last position selected every single year in this league. 6 & 8 right next to it.

You might think it's stupid, but 11 people I know don't.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I'd never heard of 3RR until this year.
LOL What?!?!?!
Sad but true.
Banzai is another format that I've heard about but never used. You pretty much JUST flip round 3 and keep all the others the same. So it works out to:

1: 1-12
2: 12-1
3: 12-1
4: 12-1
5: 1-12
Etc

This favours later picks even MORE than 3RR does. The purpose of both of these types of drafts is to make later picks as appealing as earlier picks since data shows earlier picks in earlier rounds being more valuable.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Banzai is another format that I've heard about but never used. You pretty much JUST flip round 3 and keep all the others the same. So it works out to
This is actually how the NFC drafts are. The only flip is round 3. Are you saying there are leagues that flip every 3 rounds?
 

Deamon

Footballguy
But you're gonna be reaching hard for Davis at 4.12 or else not getting him at all ;)
Take it to the Davis topic, pal.
:wink:

(And if I have the 12th pick, then I'm getting Davis at 5.12 or not getting him)
Ah yes, forgot you aren't 3rr. Still surprises me.

Then yes 12 is a good spot, but you said yourself there's another guy obsessed with him who will very likely take him in the 5th. So I do hope you get 12 because then you won't be a Davis owner lol
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I'd love to see other FBG weigh in on this. Safe to say I know how @Deamon feels. lol
Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.

Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.

Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.
I meant other members of this forum, not actually literally "FBG' staff writers.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
NFC isn't Banzai I don't think.
Whatever you wanna call it, the ONLY flip in NFC drafts is the 3rd round. The rest goes pure snake.
I dont think you're understanding what I'm saying.
Banzai means ONLY the 3rd round is reversed from the original order. Meaning round 4 runs its original 12-1 format. Meaning Rounds 2, 3, and 4 run 12-1. Thats not what NFC does.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I dont think you're understanding what I'm saying.
Banzai means ONLY the 3rd round is reversed from the original order. Meaning round 4 runs its original 12-1 format. Meaning Rounds 2, 3, and 4 run 12-1. Thats not what NFC does.
Oh - yes, you're correct.

NFC calls theirs "3RR" - 1-12, 13-24, then 3.01 is the 12-spot, and it goes snake from there. Thanks for the clarification.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Another consideration is the rate of busts in the 1st round every year. Looking back a few years, there are an awful lot of land-mines.

So on paper, sure - you can math up a reason to take 1.02 targeting CMC -> Evans -> Pittman 3.02

But if CMC does his annual trip to the IL, that math kinda goes out the window. So to the risk averse, 11-12 can be appealing as well, since you're getting what could be 2 first rounders there instead of hoping your 1 doesn't fall off of a cliff.

Just sayin
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Regular: (probably most leagues. KDS doesn't have as much meaning. Earlier the pick, the more 'value" accumulated over the entire draft)
1: 1-12
2: 12-1
3: 1-12
4: 12-1
5: 1-12
6: 12-1

3RR: (The most common for KDS. Gives the later picks a bit more weight than in a Regular draft. Makes people consider taking a later pick in the draft as the gap in value throughout the whole draft by picking 12 vs 1 isn't as big as it is in Regular)
1: 1-12
2: 12-1
3: 12-1
4: 1-12
5: 12-1
6: 1-12

Banzai: (I've never played this so can't comment, but even MORE SO gives more weight to the end of the draft to help even it out even more.)
1: 1-12
2: 12-1
3: 12-1
4: 12-1 (back to the 'regular order now)
5: 1-12
6: 12-1
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Another consideration is the rate of busts in the 1st round every year. Looking back a few years, there are an awful lot of land-mines.

So on paper, sure - you can math up a reason to take 1.02 targeting CMC -> Evans -> Pittman 3.02

But if CMC does his annual trip to the IL, that math kinda goes out the window. So to the risk averse, 11-12 can be appealing as well, since you're getting what could be 2 first rounders there instead of hoping your 1 doesn't fall off of a cliff.

Just sayin
Again, you're basing this on CMC which is a player that the consensus like as a top 2 player this year, but you don't. Hitting a top 5 RB is easier at pick 1 than it is at pick 12.
 

Gally

Footballguy
Sure but you can get a better player than the guy you get at 12. Not as good of a player as you can get round 2, but then still a better player you can get round 3. We're going in circles here. Bottom line is pick where you like, but KDS was made specifically for 3RR leagues.
This is only true if all players selected match expectations on finish. By that I mean there is no guarantee that you get a better player at 12 than you do at 17.


I have also been using the KDS (which I have never heard of it identified that way before now) for probably close to 10 years and have never been in a 3RR draft. We came up with it because it was silly that people were trading draft slots just because they drew a specific card and didn't like the spot. For example, I hate drafting in the middle. My drafts always end up disjointed and my team never seems connected. I much prefer an end and would do almost anything to make sure I am on an end. I like being able to drive the draft with runs and not worry about if I am "reaching" for a guy or not. It's all just a personal preference. You still gotta make the right picks where ever you draft from.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
We do this style and I like 11-12. Knowi g how RB’s are a injury risk, you can take 2receivers at the end. I don’t really like drafting value much, I usually draft my needs early and can take reaches later in the draft.
 

Gally

Footballguy
A
Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.

Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.
Again, this is only true if everyone makes perfect picks.....which they don't. So in theory taking the highest pick possible is the best value. In practice in never turns out that way.
 

NYRAGE

Footballguy
Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them

You might be safer with the next to last pick in that tier in case a player gets hurt before your draft ...which happened not too long ago. Everyone that had that last pick in the tier then got "stuck" with the highest pick in the next tier.

Personally, I prefer the highest pick. I try to avoid snake drafts like the plague, but the last time I read articles about which spot to pick, I believe the math always supported the highest pick possible until you reached the middle of the round. Then the later picks were more valuable than the middle picks due to 3RR.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
A
Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.

Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.
Again, this is only true if everyone makes perfect picks.....which they don't. So in theory taking the highest pick possible is the best value. In practice in never turns out that way.
Yes but it happens more than it doesn't. That's like the argument of NFL players taking a QB in later rounds because earlier rounds don't mean success. You hit more on players in fantasy and in real life drafts, who are taken earlier. Of course there's no guarantee, that's why we all play this game. But it's a numbers and statistical game and it's proven that earlier picks hit at a higher rate than later picks.
 

efactor

Footballguy
My favorite spot is 4 because I want Jefferson and I know he will be available there in my local league. Love the RBs and WRs who will still be on the board at the 2/3 turn and the WRs who will be available at the 4/5 turn.

Been doing a fair amount of the FBGs drafts and I know the draft in my local league will fall dramatically differerent. I would bet most local leagues aren't filled with guys who hang out on FF sites in March, so value will fall to those who do even with the amount of on-line information and cheat sheets available.

In our 14 teamer, there are 5 guys who know their stuff, another 5 who are competent and 4 guys who generally play in the Pride Bowl (Toliet Bowl) most years. Although, one of our perpetual TB participants won last year. Snuck into the playoffs, won a couple low scoring games in week 15/16 and then blew up in week 17. Despite being one of his victims in the semi-finals, I couldn't help being happy for him. Like a little kid on Christmas Day week 17.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top