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KDS “Kentucky derby style” Drafting: what’s your preferred order of preference? (1 Viewer)

Gally

Footballguy
Yes but it happens more than it doesn't. That's like the argument of NFL players taking a QB in later rounds because earlier rounds don't mean success. You hit more on players in fantasy and in real life drafts, who are taken earlier. Of course there's no guarantee, that's why we all play this game. But it's a numbers and statistical game and it's proven that earlier picks hit at a higher rate than later picks.
Again, I would agree if everyone was using the exact same list and evaluated players the exact same way. I would also agree that a 1st round pick is more likely to succeed than a 4th round pick. However, I would like to see data on tiers to see if that holds true. For example, I have a tier of 8 players that I think all have a similar chance to succeed. Is it a statistical probability that the guy I list first in the tier will outscore the guy I list 8th? By definition I have them equally evaluated to score the same so by definition I could get any of those 8 guys and have the same probability of them being the highest scoring of that group (in my eyes). So for that section of the draft (say pick 12 to 20) it should be a wash going into the draft as to which pick in that group has a higher probability of succeeding (to me). And those evaluations are what throw a wrench into the strict "better pick gives better chance to succeed" statements.

The commish has draft boards for all the drafts of my initial league (started in 1985) and we have done some looking back comparing player finish to where they were drafted to see if there is any advantage/disadvantage to draft position and in the half dozen or so drafts we have done that for there is no rhyme or reason or indication which draft slot turns out better. In essence you need to draft well from whatever slot you are in. The slot doesn't matter. Because of the variation of evaluating players, unforeseen things (injuries), and the short (relatively speaking) season draft spot doesn't matter for overall success. Luck is a much bigger factor.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Again, I would agree if everyone was using the exact same list and evaluated players the exact same way. I would also agree that a 1st round pick is more likely to succeed than a 4th round pick. However, I would like to see data on tiers to see if that holds true. For example, I have a tier of 8 players that I think all have a similar chance to succeed. Is it a statistical probability that the guy I list first in the tier will outscore the guy I list 8th? By definition I have them equally evaluated to score the same so by definition I could get any of those 8 guys and have the same probability of them being the highest scoring of that group (in my eyes). So for that section of the draft (say pick 12 to 20) it should be a wash going into the draft as to which pick in that group has a higher probability of succeeding (to me). And those evaluations are what throw a wrench into the strict "better pick gives better chance to succeed" statements.

The commish has draft boards for all the drafts of my initial league (started in 1985) and we have done some looking back comparing player finish to where they were drafted to see if there is any advantage/disadvantage to draft position and in the half dozen or so drafts we have done that for there is no rhyme or reason or indication which draft slot turns out better. In essence you need to draft well from whatever slot you are in. The slot doesn't matter. Because of the variation of evaluating players, unforeseen things (injuries), and the short (relatively speaking) season draft spot doesn't matter for overall success. Luck is a much bigger factor.
That's not how tiers work.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
That's not how tiers work.
If I have a bunch of guys in the same tier that means they are interchangeable because they will all score about the same. That is how I tier guys. How do you do it?
Doesn't mean they are interchangable at all. ABOUT the same maybe, but not the same. Tiers will show drop offs, but if my tier has 8 players in it, I definitely want a guy at the top of my tier over the bottom. It doesn't exactly "not matter which one I get"
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
In essence you need to draft well from whatever slot you are in
This is what I suggested earlier in this topic. I’ll add to this that some draft positions take more work than others.

At the ends, you can make predictive guesses as to what players will “make the turn” and come back to you. In the middle you have to stay more zen, keeping your head on a swivel, and letting the draft come to you.

To me, this is the art of KDS draft slot suggestion. The science is math-ing out all the possible values, but IMO there’s a subtlety to your draft slot as well.

For example, looking at the big picture, I like my drafts WR-heavy. So I might pick 3rd slot if I draft my name 1st. I historically have crap luck with 1st round RBs, and while it might seem nuts to pass on JT, I’m happier taking JJ, then 2 more WR in the 2-3 turn, and either. TE or WR at 4 (or even a Herbert if he makes it to 4.12) and then loading up on the Dobbins/Dillon/Pierce types.

The clinical approach might say to take the highest draft position you can get - I believe there’s much more to it than that. Im going to have a better draft if I’m positioned to get the targets I want, and if I have some predictability from one pick to the next. Sure, on the long turns it’s no different than drafting 7th. But on those short runs there’s a real advantage only having 2 or 4 players off the board between picks.
 

Gally

Footballguy
Doesn't mean they are interchangable at all. ABOUT the same maybe, but not the same. Tiers will show drop offs, but if my tier has 8 players in it, I definitely want a guy at the top of my tier over the bottom. It doesn't exactly "not matter which one I get"
I guess we are different then. I tier guys to be interchangeable. If they aren't then I move the "better" guy to the higher tier or the "worse" guy to the lower tier. My idea of tiers are to have guys similar in performance that I am fine if I get any of them.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
In essence you need to draft well from whatever slot you are in
This is what I suggested earlier in this topic. I’ll add to this that some draft positions take more work than others.

At the ends, you can make predictive guesses as to what players will “make the turn” and come back to you. In the middle you have to stay more zen, keeping your head on a swivel, and letting the draft come to you.

To me, this is the art of KDS draft slot suggestion. The science is math-ing out all the possible values, but IMO there’s a subtlety to your draft slot as well.

For example, looking at the big picture, I like my drafts WR-heavy. So I might pick 3rd slot if I draft my name 1st. I historically have crap luck with 1st round RBs, and while it might seem nuts to pass on JT, I’m happier taking JJ, then 2 more WR in the 2-3 turn, and either. TE or WR at 4 (or even a Herbert if he makes it to 4.12) and then loading up on the Dobbins/Dillon/Pierce types.

The clinical approach might say to take the highest draft position you can get - I believe there’s much more to it than that. Im going to have a better draft if I’m positioned to get the targets I want, and if I have some predictability from one pick to the next. Sure, on the long turns it’s no different than drafting 7th. But on those short runs there’s a real advantage only having 2 or 4 players off the board between picks.
I agree with all of the above in 3rr. KDS really makes you think about it a LOT and balance out the value of the picks and who you like and where. The high 3rd really makes things more even by giving later slots as much value as the early slots (that's the entire point of 3rr right?)
 

Gally

Footballguy
At the ends, you can make predictive guesses as to what players will “make the turn” and come back to you. In the middle you have to stay more zen, keeping your head on a swivel, and letting the draft come to you.
Very true. It's why I hate the middle. I feel I am too reactionary and never proactive. On the ends it allows me to trust my research to get ahead of runs and not mind reaching if I believe in a guy.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
At the ends, you can make predictive guesses as to what players will “make the turn” and come back to you. In the middle you have to stay more zen, keeping your head on a swivel, and letting the draft come to you.
Very true. It's why I hate the middle. I feel I am too reactionary and never proactive. On the ends it allows me to trust my research to get ahead of runs and not mind reaching if I believe in a guy.
Exactly. It is a less stressful and IMO less difficult draft position.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I agree with all of the above in 3rr. KDS really makes you think about it a LOT and balance out the value of the picks and who you like and where. The high 3rd really makes things more even by giving later slots as much value as the early slots (that's the entire point of 3rr right?)
I believe it applies equally to both 3RR and standard snake drafts.
 

titusbramble

Footballguy
That's not how tiers work.
If I have a bunch of guys in the same tier that means they are interchangeable because they will all score about the same. That is how I tier guys. How do you do it?
Doesn't mean they are interchangable at all. ABOUT the same maybe, but not the same. Tiers will show drop offs, but if my tier has 8 players in it, I definitely want a guy at the top of my tier over the bottom. It doesn't exactly "not matter which one I get"

So at some point you transition from the top to the bottom - surely that is just another tier?
 

Deamon

Footballguy
At the ends, you can make predictive guesses as to what players will “make the turn” and come back to you. In the middle you have to stay more zen, keeping your head on a swivel, and letting the draft come to you.
Very true. It's why I hate the middle. I feel I am too reactionary and never proactive. On the ends it allows me to trust my research to get ahead of runs and not mind reaching if I believe in a guy.
and in the middle you don't have to reach. The ends you could be like "well I don't want to wait 24 picks until I get a qb, I should take one now". Then you lose value. Or "Nah I don't need a qb yet I'll wait"... and then a run happens, and then you're toast. IF you start a run from a turn it's great, but that's a big gamble. You can always react appropriately to the rest of your league when you're in the middle, and in the poker game of drafts, reacting/adjusting to what others are doing/trends/runs, is crucial.

But ya, in 3rr which they invented to make the later picks sexier, late picks are definitely more attractive.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
That's not how tiers work.
If I have a bunch of guys in the same tier that means they are interchangeable because they will all score about the same. That is how I tier guys. How do you do it?
Doesn't mean they are interchangable at all. ABOUT the same maybe, but not the same. Tiers will show drop offs, but if my tier has 8 players in it, I definitely want a guy at the top of my tier over the bottom. It doesn't exactly "not matter which one I get"

So at some point you transition from the top to the bottom - surely that is just another tier?
No there's drop off points. That's what tiering does.
 

Gally

Footballguy
Exactly. It is a less stressful and IMO less difficult draft position.
I don't agree with the "less difficult" part. You have to have confidence in your ranking and trust your research. If you don't have that you are always doubting your picks and direction. I know people that want middle because they can't plan or trust their evaluations so by being in the middle they can "swivel" and just take what's in front of them. It is much easier to them.

I think the difficulty is based on your mindset and confidence. In general I don't think any spot is more difficult than another. However, for me, the ends are much easier.
 

Gally

Footballguy
No there's drop off points. That's what tiering does.
This statement doesn't make sense when compared to your other statement. You said you much rather have a guy at the top of one of your tiers than the bottom. That, by definition, is a drop off. If there are no drop off points in your tier then they are all interchangeable (within that tier). That is the point of a tier.
 

Gally

Footballguy
and in the middle you don't have to reach. The ends you could be like "well I don't want to wait 24 picks until I get a qb, I should take one now". Then you lose value. Or "Nah I don't need a qb yet I'll wait"... and then a run happens, and then you're toast. IF you start a run from a turn it's great, but that's a big gamble. You can always react appropriately to the rest of your league when you're in the middle, and in the poker game of drafts, reacting/adjusting to what others are doing/trends/runs, is crucial.
This "value" is only perceived based on some consensus of where players "should" be drafted. The actual value can only be known once the season is over and all the games have been played. If I trust my evaluations and do a good job of projecting then taking a player "early" because they won't make it back isn't losing value. If that player ends us scoring more than the next 23 players taken then it was worth taking him there and no value is lost.

And in poker sometimes you have to make others adjust and react and not just do all the reacting. Fortune favors the bold sometimes.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
This statement doesn't make sense when compared to your other statement. You said you much rather have a guy at the top of one of your tiers than the bottom. That, by definition, is a drop off. If there are no drop off points in your tier then they are all interchangeable (within that tier). That is the point of a tier.
You're splitting hairs here man. I said "definitely" not "much"... and how do you quantify those 2 words? If I tier them as for example "Diggs, Adams, Lamb" in a tier, yes I would 'definitely' prefer diggs to lamb. Would I "much rather"? cmon man.

Interchangeable" implies there's no difference. If you have everyone in your tier projected for the EXACT same number of points, then I'm afraid you've got bigger issues.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
and in the middle you don't have to reach. The ends you could be like "well I don't want to wait 24 picks until I get a qb, I should take one now". Then you lose value. Or "Nah I don't need a qb yet I'll wait"... and then a run happens, and then you're toast. IF you start a run from a turn it's great, but that's a big gamble. You can always react appropriately to the rest of your league when you're in the middle, and in the poker game of drafts, reacting/adjusting to what others are doing/trends/runs, is crucial.
This "value" is only perceived based on some consensus of where players "should" be drafted. The actual value can only be known once the season is over and all the games have been played. If I trust my evaluations and do a good job of projecting then taking a player "early" because they won't make it back isn't losing value. If that player ends us scoring more than the next 23 players taken then it was worth taking him there and no value is lost.

And in poker sometimes you have to make others adjust and react and not just do all the reacting. Fortune favors the bold sometimes.
But you don't even project. Unless you're saying everyone within your tier is exactly the same projections of yards, tds, points.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
taking a player "early" because they won't make it back isn't losing value.
that's exactly what it's doing. If you picked in the middle, you'd still get that player anyways. And you'd also get a 2nd player that is higher up in your rankings. You're obsessing over tiers too much... there's obvious difference between the top and bottom of a tier. Even if it's small.
 
Exactly. It is a less stressful and IMO less difficult draft position.
I don't agree with the "less difficult" part. You have to have confidence in your ranking and trust your research. If you don't have that you are always doubting your picks and direction. I know people that want middle because they can't plan or trust their evaluations so by being in the middle they can "swivel" and just take what's in front of them. It is much easier to them.

I think the difficulty is based on your mindset and confidence. In general I don't think any spot is more difficult than another. However, for me, the ends are much easier.
For me, when drafting in the middle, I am constantly picking guys that are “slipping” ADP. So I often end up with a strong ADP based team, but I don’t always love them. Drafting from the ends, I am much more free at just getting my guys and I usually like my teams much more like this. I am not sure why I feel that way, but I do.

Example is the 11th pick, I’ve had this slot twice in the last week and the 7th once. I love Sutton this year and grabbed him X2 in round 3 from the 11. I really wanted him at the 7 hole draft as well, but I went with K Allen instead and hoped he would slide to the 4th. He did not.

I feel like I have opportunities to start “runs” from the end, but I don’t feel like I can do that from the middle.
 

Gally

Footballguy
But you don't even project. Unless you're saying everyone within your tier is exactly the same projections of yards, tds, points
No they don't project to the exact same but since these are all estimations if they are off by 5% (or whatever number you think is insignificant for this purpose) then for all intents and purposes they are the same. There is error factored into the projections because you can't be perfect. It's a range of outcomes and that is whey there is no significant difference for players in the same tier. If there is a significant difference then the player moves to a different tier.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
But you don't even project. Unless you're saying everyone within your tier is exactly the same projections of yards, tds, points
No they don't project to the exact same but since these are all estimations if they are off by 5% (or whatever number you think is insignificant for this purpose) then for all intents and purposes they are the same. There is error factored into the projections because you can't be perfect. It's a range of outcomes and that is whey there is no significant difference for players in the same tier. If there is a significant difference then the player moves to a different tier.
I never said the top of my tiers and bottom of my tiers are significant. But there is an order, and if I had the choice I would pick the one at the top of my tier, as would you I'm assuming. So you would definitely take the top of your tier over the bottom given the choice too. It's not just 'pick a name out of the hat'
 

Gally

Footballguy
that's exactly what it's doing. If you picked in the middle, you'd still get that player anyways. And you'd also get a 2nd player that is higher up in your rankings. You're obsessing over tiers too much... there's obvious difference between the top and bottom of a tier. Even if it's small.
Agree to disagree with this. This "value" is all made up. Who says where a player should be drafted exactly? That is what you are basing your value on. If I "reach" for a player it's because I don't think he is making it back and I would rather have him because I think he is better than where the consensus values him. I am not losing value if I value him more than consensus and I fear losing him if I don't take him now. That is the proper value for my draft position in order for me to make sure I get that player.

I think people go way overboard on the "value" players have for drafting purposes. Its all a crapshoot anyway. Trust your evals and draft a guy you want if you think he won't make it back and you "value" him more than other players in that spot.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
At the ends, you can make predictive guesses as to what players will “make the turn” and come back to you. In the middle you have to stay more zen, keeping your head on a swivel, and letting the draft come to you.
Very true. It's why I hate the middle. I feel I am too reactionary and never proactive. On the ends it allows me to trust my research to get ahead of runs and not mind reaching if I believe in a guy.
and in the middle you don't have to reach. The ends you could be like "well I don't want to wait 24 picks until I get a qb, I should take one now". Then you lose value. Or "Nah I don't need a qb yet I'll wait"... and then a run happens, and then you're toast. IF you start a run from a turn it's great, but that's a big gamble. You can always react appropriately to the rest of your league when you're in the middle, and in the poker game of drafts, reacting/adjusting to what others are doing/trends/runs, is crucial.

But ya, in 3rr which they invented to make the later picks sexier, late picks are definitely more attractive.
“Reach” is largely a psychological construct.
 

Gally

Footballguy
I never said the top of my tiers and bottom of my tiers are significant. But there is an order, and if I had the choice I would pick the one at the top of my tier, as would you I'm assuming. So you would definitely take the top of your tier over the bottom given the choice too. It's not just 'pick a name out of the hat'
Not necessarily. The point of having a tier is saying I am fine with any of these 8 players (or whatever size tier you have as they all differ). So as the draft is going I can wait on that tier if I think players are making it back. If that tier is the top of all my players left and I must choose between one of the eight I might choose #5 because of bye week reasons or I already have a WR on the team of the "top" player in that tier or I need a RB instead of a WR. There are many reasons I wouldn't choose the "top" guy in my tier
 

Deamon

Footballguy
“Reach” is largely a psychological construct.
Not really. Reach doesn't mean they'll perform poorly, it means you could have gotten them later. You've used the term "reach" in other of our conversations.
There's an art and a science to this whole drafting thing, otherwise why not just take a random guy you like in every round if you're not concerned about "where I COULD get him if I wait"
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I never said the top of my tiers and bottom of my tiers are significant. But there is an order, and if I had the choice I would pick the one at the top of my tier, as would you I'm assuming. So you would definitely take the top of your tier over the bottom given the choice too. It's not just 'pick a name out of the hat'
Not necessarily. The point of having a tier is saying I am fine with any of these 8 players (or whatever size tier you have as they all differ). So as the draft is going I can wait on that tier if I think players are making it back. If that tier is the top of all my players left and I must choose between one of the eight I might choose #5 because of bye week reasons or I already have a WR on the team of the "top" player in that tier or I need a RB instead of a WR. There are many reasons I wouldn't choose the "top" guy in my tier
Oh man, you're twisting things big time. I also tier by position which I'm assuming you don't. And I also don't overthink bye weeks in redraft which is a common mistake imo.
I'm talking purely in the same situation... if you have a tier with all other things consistent, you would take the top guy in your tier over the bottom guy in your tier, right?

If your tier is

Taylor
CMC
Henry
Ekeler
And you have the first pick in the draft, are you pulling a name from a hat? Or do you prefer Taylor to Ekeler so you take Taylor? If you don't have players ranked WITHIN a tier, you're doing something wrong.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I agree with all of the above in 3rr. KDS really makes you think about it a LOT and balance out the value of the picks and who you like and where. The high 3rd really makes things more even by giving later slots as much value as the early slots (that's the entire point of 3rr right?)
I believe it applies equally to both 3RR and standard snake drafts.
So again, why do you think 3RR was invented and what is its purpose? I'm curious to hear your answer.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I believe it applies equally to both 3RR and standard snake drafts.
Why do you think 3RR was invented? I guess you only found out about it this year so you don't know much on it, but what do you think its purpose is?
The purpose is clear. It gives the late picks a better balance and helps curb the example of 1/24/25 by making it 12, 13 & 25

But where you draft in standard snake also impacts the level of difficulty of the draft, and the predictability of your next picks (as I eluded to earlier)

I’m not convinced that it’s any different in 3RR than standard snake. I believe the challenges of the draft slot are equally important in both.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
The purpose is clear. It gives the late picks a better balance and helps curb the example of 1/24/25 by making it 12, 13 & 25

But where you draft in standard snake also impacts the level of difficulty of the draft, and the predictability of your next picks (as I eluded to earlier)

I’m not convinced that it’s any different in 3RR than standard snake. I believe the challenges of the draft slot are equally important in both.
Late picks a better balance, meaning 1/24 is more valuable than 12/13, correct? If 12/13 was equally valuable, than there would be absolutely zero reason to give pick 25 to the 12/13 drafter, ya?


No difference in wanting to choose the 1 spot over the 12 spot in 3rr vs standard snake? You just said the exact opposite of that by saying 12/13 is less valuable than 1/24 in standard and that's why they do 3rr.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
“Reach” is largely a psychological construct.
Not really. Reach doesn't mean they'll perform poorly, it means you could have gotten them later. You've used the term "reach" in other of our conversations.
There's an art and a science to this whole drafting thing, otherwise why not just take a random guy you like in every round if you're not concerned about "where I COULD get him if I wait"
In this context I just mean taking a guy at 4.01 because he won’t be there at 5.12 isn’t really a reach. And it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re passing on value - it just means you have to decide if that’s the player or position that best suits your draft need.

Maybe you have 3 players there you want. 1 is a QB, 2 you consider values. Personally I’d take the 2 values and re-strategize to taking a later QB, risking missing a run.

Or if it’s looking like a run is predictable and you must “reach” for that QB, it’s a deliberate decision to have the higher tier QB at the cost of one of those value players.

All part of the art of drafting at the end. But the reward is you get 2 of the 3 for certain at the 12 spot, whereas from 6 you have no such luxury. You see multiple tier drop-offs every single round. It’s why I hate drafting in the middle, and in any format, why I believe there’s greater value drafting at an end.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
No difference in wanting to choose the 1 spot over the 12 spot in 3rr vs standard snake? You just said the exact opposite of that by saying 12/13 is less valuable than 1/24 in standard and that's why they do 3rr.
I’m not saying I believe that. I was just answering your question as to why they do 3RR.

I understand why an attempt was made to offer that balance, because the perception was that 1/24/25 was more valuable than 12/13/25

But I’d rather have 12/13/25 than 6/18/30, or whatever it is.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
In this context I just mean taking a guy at 4.01 because he won’t be there at 5.12 isn’t really a reach. And it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re passing on value - it just means you have to decide if that’s the player or position that best suits your draft need.
And in this example, you can get that guy at 4.06, and then your 5th round pick is earlier (5.07 vs 5.12). Or even better, you can take a guy at 4.06 that you really like, and STILL get your guy at 5.07.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
’m not saying I believe that. I was just answering your question as to why they do 3RR.

I understand why an attempt was made to offer that balance, because the perception was that 1/24/25 was more valuable than 12/13/25
So in your opinion, 3RR is pointless since it's only a perception and doesn't actually help the 'balance'?
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
So in your opinion, 3RR is pointless since it's only a perception and doesn't actually help the 'balance'?
No, not saying that. I’m as yet undecided on whether it’s a good thing or not.

I contemplated putting it up to vote in my league this year, but I’m trying to decide if it really does lend balance.

So in my opinion, it’s TBD.
 

Gally

Footballguy
Oh man, you're twisting things big time. I also tier by position which I'm assuming you don't. And I also don't overthink bye weeks in redraft which is a common mistake imo.
I'm talking purely in the same situation... if you have a tier with all other things consistent, you would take the top guy in your tier over the bottom guy in your tier, right?

If your tier is

Taylor
CMC
Henry
Ekeler
And you have the first pick in the draft, are you pulling a name from a hat? Or do you prefer Taylor to Ekeler so you take Taylor? If you don't have players ranked WITHIN a tier, you're doing something wrong.
I am not twisting anything. I gave you an example of why I would take a 5th guy listed in a tier category vs the first guy listed.

As far as your example its hard to differentiate because I don't have these guys in the same tier. I have Taylor by himself in a tier and Henry/CMC/Ekeler are in different tiers as well. But if they are nameless and all in my same tier then I would have no issue taking #4 vs #1 listed in a tier. Obviously I will likely take the guy listed first because human nature will push me to list them in the order I like them but that doesn't mean I think there is any meaningful performance difference because they are in the same tier.

Also, to your example, If I pulled the ace I would not choose to pick first so I likely won't be in that position.

At this point I am not sure what we are arguing. Yes, I will likely take the guy I listed first in a tier but don't see them as being different performance wise. I just gotta pick someone. That isn't what started this conversation though.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
No, not saying that. I’m as yet undecided on whether it’s a good thing or not.

I contemplated putting it up to vote in my league this year, but I’m trying to decide if it really does lend balance.

So in my opinion, it’s TBD.
Haha I mean that sure is a way to dance around it. It's done in thousands of leagues though, and in the FPC/FFPC leagues that you play, so there's obviously a reason to it. It's done because 1/24 is more valuable than 12/13. VBD statistics from FBG shows it, and this is why KDS has become so popular, is because 3RR completely makes you think about where to draft a lot more since it is VERY equal. Man, I know your rep is to dig your heels in to something you believe and not let go, but C'mon.
 

Gally

Footballguy
No, not saying that. I’m as yet undecided on whether it’s a good thing or not.

I contemplated putting it up to vote in my league this year, but I’m trying to decide if it really does lend balance.

So in my opinion, it’s TBD.
I have thought about it and I believe it gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft. It's why I have never done one.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I have thought about it and I believe it gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft. It's why I have never done one.
but how is it an advantage at all? How is 3.01 any more valuable than 3.12? :lmao:
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I have thought about it and I believe it gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft. It's why I have never done one.
You're saying 3.01/4.12 would be more valuable than 3.12/4.01. But you won't concede that 1.01/2.12 is more valuable than 1.12/2.01 :lmao:
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
So in your opinion, 3RR is pointless since it's only a perception and doesn't actually help the 'balance'?
True. This is exactly how I feel about 3RR.
I’m leaning that way as well.

I get that it helps the later slots in the 3rd round.

I don’t know that it’s an overall balancing tool.

IMO, the way to balance snake style is to switch to auction drafts. It’s the only true “fair” way to draft.

As I’ve said before, 12-13 might be better than 1/25

I know people think it’s crazy, but values slide every year. I landed Mixon at 24th overall last season. He was a top 5 RB.

Certainly 5 RB went before Mixon between picks 2-23.

And if you can identify the value at 12-13, you conceivably have less risk tied into your 1st round pick. Essentially it’s possible to land 2x 1st round caliber players there, which IMO might be both better, and safer than whatever advantage JT+24 gives you over the league.

Obviously there’s also value in pick #25, and who gets that is what’s separating 3RR from standard snake. But then 1.01 is getting 3.12 & 4.01, which is also allowing team 1.01 to get 2 picks without a tier drop-off.

So right now I’m undecided.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
No, not saying that. I’m as yet undecided on whether it’s a good thing or not.

I contemplated putting it up to vote in my league this year, but I’m trying to decide if it really does lend balance.

So in my opinion, it’s TBD.
I have thought about it and I believe it gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft. It's why I have never done one.
Yeah, I’m still not sure about that, but it’s possible, I admit. It’s an important part of the draft, and while having 12/13/25 is an advantage over 1/24/36, team 12’s next pick isn’t until 48, which is a pretty massive drop-off compared to having 36/37.

Like I said, still on the fence about it.
 

Gally

Footballguy
That it's pointless? lol okay then. Things have changed since 1985
I understand what the purpose is supposed to do but I don't believe there is an imbalance in a standard snake draft. There are too many variables and drafts don't follow actual end of season value of each player. I would understand the purpose more if you already knew who finishes as the top player and on down. Then there would be much more "value" in earlier picks because you are guaranteed to get the best player available. But that doesn't happen in real drafts. People don't take the best player left every time. People miss so it's essentially a crapshoot. I think giving a team two first picks in two out of the first three first rounds is an advantage and isn't warranted.

In my long time league (i have 35+ years of results) there is no clear best draft position based on league winner. It is an even distribution across all positions and it is more tilted towards the actual drafter rather than the position. It is something that I have actually studied for that league to see if draft positions matters. I have also done it for my work league (over about 15 years) and the results were the same. Draft position didn't matter. Because of this I just don't believe that a 3RR is necessary to even anything out.
 

Gally

Footballguy
You're saying 3.01/4.12 would be more valuable than 3.12/4.01. But you won't concede that 1.01/2.12 is more valuable than 1.12/2.01 :lmao:
But that isn't the total equation. You also have to factor in the first two rounds in the evaluation. Every team in a standard snake draft averages a middle pick. That gets skewed with the 3RR where it isn't the same for all teams.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
That it's pointless? lol okay then. Things have changed since 1985
I understand what the purpose is supposed to do but I don't believe there is an imbalance in a standard snake draft. There are too many variables and drafts don't follow actual end of season value of each player. I would understand the purpose more if you already knew who finishes as the top player and on down. Then there would be much more "value" in earlier picks because you are guaranteed to get the best player available. But that doesn't happen in real drafts. People don't take the best player left every time. People miss so it's essentially a crapshoot. I think giving a team two first picks in two out of the first three first rounds is an advantage and isn't warranted.

In my long time league (i have 35+ years of results) there is no clear best draft position based on league winner. It is an even distribution across all positions and it is more tilted towards the actual drafter rather than the position. It is something that I have actually studied for that league to see if draft positions matters. I have also done it for my work league (over about 15 years) and the results were the same. Draft position didn't matter. Because of this I just don't believe that a 3RR is necessary to even anything out.
But in your opinion 1.01/2.12 is no better than 1.12/2.01. So in your opinion 3.01/4.12 is no better than 3.12/4.01. Yet you said you believe that doing 3rr, "gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft." Think you need to recheck your math here.
 

Gally

Footballguy
Yeah, I’m still not sure about that, but it’s possible, I admit. It’s an important part of the draft, and while having 12/13/25 is an advantage over 1/24/36, team 12’s next pick isn’t until 48, which is a pretty massive drop-off compared to having 36/37.

Like I said, still on the fence about it.
But what is it really doing for you? It's not necessary and even if it skews it a little bit why do you need to do that?
 

Gally

Footballguy
But in your opinion 1.01/2.12 is no better than 1.12/2.01. So in your opinion 3.01/4.12 is no better than 3.12/4.01. Yet you said you believe that doing 3rr, "gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft." Think you need to recheck your math here.
OK you caught me. Sizable was probably the wrong term. It is more like a minor advantage that isn't necessary to provide. There is nothing unfair about a standard snake so why have the need to try and skew it (even if slightly) to later draft spots. Overall I don't think any of it really matters. They are both basically the same so there is no need to go with a 3RR to added complexity.
 

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