Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For those who play in KDS leagues, where once your name is pulled, you get to choose your draft slot, what’s your preferred order & why?
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I would say the vast majority of KTS is 3RR, so any conversation in here about that is likely skewed that way. In non 3RR, I'd just go for the higher pick so this is all a moot point for your league. If you love someone at 10, just take him at 5. Sure your 2nd rounder is worse, but your 3rd is also better. Don't overthink it, KDS should only really be a big thinking point in 3rr leagues.For those who play in KTS leagues, where once your name is pulled, you get to choose your draft slot, what’s your preferred order & why?
Interesting take.I would say the vast majority of KTS is 3RR, so any conversation in here about that is likely skewed that way. In non 3RR, I'd just go for the higher pick so this is all a moot point for your league. If you love someone at 10, just take him at 5. Sure your 2nd rounder is worse, but your 3rd is also better. Don't overthink it, KDS should only really be a big thinking point in 3rr leagues.
Being at the turn is a huge disadvantage. You can't maximize value from your opponents. If you're at 3.11 for example, and you know the guy at 3.12/4.01 already has taken a QB, you can completely skip the QB you want at 3.11 because you're sure he will fall to you at 4.02. Or if he already has 2 WR and probably will go RB, you take the RB at 3.11 and your wideout at 4.02 because you know he'll fall. This is a huge advantage imo, so I hate the very end. Also you're waiting forever for picks.Interesting take.I would say the vast majority of KTS is 3RR, so any conversation in here about that is likely skewed that way. In non 3RR, I'd just go for the higher pick so this is all a moot point for your league. If you love someone at 10, just take him at 5. Sure your 2nd rounder is worse, but your 3rd is also better. Don't overthink it, KDS should only really be a big thinking point in 3rr leagues.
I’ve only played in 3RR leagues this year, yet my home IDP PPR redraft has been KTS for a decade now.
I prefer the order as follows:
1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 11, 10, 9, 5, 8, 6, 7
I might even like 12 over 4.
Being at, or near a turn can give you a huge advantage. And having a “short side” where fewer picks are going between you picks can make risk-taking / gambling that someone will fall to you in the next round a bit less risky.
IMO, 3RR doesn’t necessarily favor the later picks, I’ve read that the early picks still have an an advantage. You’ve got a top ~5 pick, then a top ~24 pick, then you still get the 3.12-4.01 turn where an awful lot of WR & RB value slides. The 12 pick gets 12-13, and 25, but then has to wait until 4.12/5.01 for the next picks,
It’s an interesting scenario, and I really do like the 3RR, but I disagree strongly that it’s as simple as in non-3RR / standard snake, just take highest pick,
I’d much rather have 12, 11 or 10 than 6-7-8, and it’s not close, not just for the first couple players being potently value picks (think Adams/Mixon, or Diggs/Barkley, Kelce/Diggs, etc) but throughout the draft those 13-17 picks between every single pick can be maddening when drafting in the middle.
I detest 6-7-8.
Yep - I’ve read that. Agree with some of it. Disagree with some of it. Rotowire has a lot of takes. I’m not on board with many of them. I don’t care for their rankings much either.Good article on KDS here
Ya I dislike them overall, but they were one of the first articles I found when searching for some historical reasoning for KDS.Yep - I’ve read that. Agree with some of it. Disagree with some of it. Rotowire has a lot of takes. I’m not on board with many of them. I don’t care for their rankings much either.Good article on KDS here
Ya if you can get Mixon/Adams then you're in great shape. 3.11 as your next pick isn't the most fun though.@Deamon - we all have our takes.
Looking at real drafts I’ve seen Mixon/Adams at the 12 more than a few times.
In that scenario I get a top 5 WR & a top 5 RB, with potential for more.
Then I get back to back picks the entire draft.
You’re overly focused on the 1st round, IMO. There’s extreme value in picking at, or close to a turn.
Your non-3RR list isn’t that far off from mine; though I’d never want 6 over 12. With 6 you’re looking at 10 picks on your “short side” as compared to B2B every round.
And yeah - I’d much rather start this year with a WR, if I don’t get JT. It’s really yearly specific. I see a lot of risk in CMC (injury, Foreman vulturing TDs, reduced workload) and Eke (injury, potentially significant TD regression) and would prefer a dominant top 5 WR there, but that’s also because I see a huge drop-off at WR in the 2nd and several value RBs falling there, or, if fortunate, a WR-WR start.
I’m more about the VBD & overall team build. For that reason I prefer 12 over 6. Otherwise we’re not that far off.
It's an interesting approach, but it also is only relevant for 1 round. Fantasy leagues often aren't won or lost in the 1st round. Then when ADP is considered, it's a bit too simplistic of a way of doing things.Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
Yep I usually do this, but I will jump it up ONE spot in case of injury/drop off. If I have a tier of 8 then sharp drop off, and I pick slot 8, and then Taylor gets hurt or CMC retires or Ekeler loses the starting job, or Kupp gets suspended, etc, then you really screwed yourself over. So in this case I'd pick 7th so you have that room for unexpected things to come up.Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
But 4.01 can be a lot of fun.Ya if you can get Mixon/Adams then you're in great shape. 3.11 as your next pick isn't the most fun though.
IMO this is the correct response in that line of thought. It's not only about the 1st pick. The overall draft landscape matters. The number of picks between your picks matters. The league format, and the people you play with matters.its not set in stone as some seem to state.
it’s dependent on the talent in each draft. Titus’ idea above works as a start but I usually expect a top 6 pick is preferred so I often mock the top 30 players and choose the best trio based on draft spot.
No.It's an interesting approach, but it also is only relevant for 1 round. Fantasy leagues often aren't won or lost in the 1st round. Then when ADP is considered, it's a bit too simplistic of a way of doing things.Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
In my earlier example, both Mixon (5) and Adams (4) are in my top tier of RB and WR. If you get say, the 5th crack at the draft board, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, are gone, then wouldn't I be better off with 12th position, considering I could get both Mixon & Adams there, as opposed to taking 1.06, where I'd only get Adams?
Seems like a heck of a lot more to it than simply planning for your 1st pick.
Often you'll get a choice of 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 because 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, 12 go before those. So in that scenario I'm likely to take 9 for the shorter turn and the better chance of getting one of my top tier guys in the 1st, then a small drop-off just 6 picks later. If I go 5 there, then I get a top 5 player on my board, but have to wait 14 picks until my 2nd, and then 10 picks until my 3rd.
While true on paper, you know as well as I do that drafts don't always go chalk - especially if you're drafting with experienced FF managers. So the more picks between your picks, the greater the chance of missing your top choices. When you're at 6, that's going to happen every round. It gets super frustrating.I'm all about VBD too, but add up the FBG VBD numbers on the Draft Dominator of picks 6+19 vs 12+13 and VBD is higher with 6+19. If you're not doing 3RR, throw in 6+19+30 vs 12+13+24 and the number is even more imbalanced. And if you want to even add pick 4, 6+19+30+43 is still quite a bit higher than 12+13+24+25. We could go on all day by adding more rounds, but you get the point. Earlier pick = higher VBD. If you disagree with their rankings and rank someone like adams as a top 6 guy (like i know you do), then sure, take 10 cause you can get him there.
I was told there would be no math.Well first of all if you get the 5th crack at the draft board then its impossible for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 to be gone
It was just an example. It could be Barkley/Adams or Kelce/Mixon or some other combination of players I'd be thrilled to have that you could much more rarely, if ever, get both from the 6 spot.Second of all, no 12 would not be better because Adams and Mixon might not both be there (ADP shows that they "SHOULDN"T" both be there). If you take pick 6, one of your very top guys can still fall to you... your 2nd pick isn't as good but your 3rd is better. You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
Again: I've been doing KDS for 10+ years in my home league because I believe it's more fair. Why should the last name picked get a better draft spot than the name picked 7th or 8th?You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
Yes, correct. But in fantasy, less time between your picks = more value and less reaching.We can all argue about this years rankings, but I'll go off of FBG ranks just for a general idea. This year there's a clear top 5.5 players in PPR: In order (again, their rankings)IMO this is the correct response in that line of thought. It's not only about the 1st pick. The overall draft landscape matters. The number of picks between your picks matters. The league format, and the people you play with matters.its not set in stone as some seem to state.
it’s dependent on the talent in each draft. Titus’ idea above works as a start but I usually expect a top 6 pick is preferred so I often mock the top 30 players and choose the best trio based on draft spot.
Sure but you can get a better player than the guy you get at 12. Not as good of a player as you can get round 2, but then still a better player you can get round 3. We're going in circles here. Bottom line is pick where you like, but KDS was made specifically for 3RR leagues.It was just an example. It could be Barkley/Adams or Kelce/Mixon or some other combination of players I'd be thrilled to have that you could much more rarely, if ever, get both from the 6 spot.Second of all, no 12 would not be better because Adams and Mixon might not both be there (ADP shows that they "SHOULDN"T" both be there). If you take pick 6, one of your very top guys can still fall to you... your 2nd pick isn't as good but your 3rd is better. You're really over thinking this and there's a reason KDS is a 3RR thing.
LOL What?!?!?!I'd never heard of 3RR until this year.
He doesn't.Why should the last name picked get a better draft spot than the name picked 7th or 8th?
Sad but true.LOL What?!?!?!I'd never heard of 3RR until this year.
Some would argue differently.He doesn't.
Take it to the Davis topic, pal.But you're gonna be reaching hard for Davis at 4.12 or else not getting him at all
Banzai is another format that I've heard about but never used. You pretty much JUST flip round 3 and keep all the others the same. So it works out to:Sad but true.LOL What?!?!?!I'd never heard of 3RR until this year.
This is actually how the NFC drafts are. The only flip is round 3. Are you saying there are leagues that flip every 3 rounds?Banzai is another format that I've heard about but never used. You pretty much JUST flip round 3 and keep all the others the same. So it works out to
Ah yes, forgot you aren't 3rr. Still surprises me.Take it to the Davis topic, pal.But you're gonna be reaching hard for Davis at 4.12 or else not getting him at all
(And if I have the 12th pick, then I'm getting Davis at 5.12 or not getting him)
NFC isn't Banzai I don't think.This is actually how the NFC drafts are. The only flip is round 3. Are you saying there are leagues that flip every 3 rounds?Banzai is another format that I've heard about but never used. You pretty much JUST flip round 3 and keep all the others the same. So it works out to
Whatever you wanna call it, the ONLY flip in NFC drafts is the 3rd round. The rest goes pure snake.NFC isn't Banzai I don't think.
Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.I'd love to see other FBG weigh in on this. Safe to say I know how @Deamon feels. lol
why you gotta jinx me like that?So I do hope you get 12 because then you won't be a Davis owner lol
I meant other members of this forum, not actually literally "FBG' staff writers.Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.
Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.
I dont think you're understanding what I'm saying.Whatever you wanna call it, the ONLY flip in NFC drafts is the 3rd round. The rest goes pure snake.NFC isn't Banzai I don't think.
Oh - yes, you're correct.I dont think you're understanding what I'm saying.
Banzai means ONLY the 3rd round is reversed from the original order. Meaning round 4 runs its original 12-1 format. Meaning Rounds 2, 3, and 4 run 12-1. Thats not what NFC does.
Again, you're basing this on CMC which is a player that the consensus like as a top 2 player this year, but you don't. Hitting a top 5 RB is easier at pick 1 than it is at pick 12.Another consideration is the rate of busts in the 1st round every year. Looking back a few years, there are an awful lot of land-mines.
So on paper, sure - you can math up a reason to take 1.02 targeting CMC -> Evans -> Pittman 3.02
But if CMC does his annual trip to the IL, that math kinda goes out the window. So to the risk averse, 11-12 can be appealing as well, since you're getting what could be 2 first rounders there instead of hoping your 1 doesn't fall off of a cliff.
Just sayin
Not when I’m drafting them.Again, you're basing this on CMC which is a player that the consensus like as a top 2 player this year, but you don't. Hitting a top 5 RB is easier at pick 1 than it is at pick 12.
This is only true if all players selected match expectations on finish. By that I mean there is no guarantee that you get a better player at 12 than you do at 17.Sure but you can get a better player than the guy you get at 12. Not as good of a player as you can get round 2, but then still a better player you can get round 3. We're going in circles here. Bottom line is pick where you like, but KDS was made specifically for 3RR leagues.
Again, this is only true if everyone makes perfect picks.....which they don't. So in theory taking the highest pick possible is the best value. In practice in never turns out that way.Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.
Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.
Look at how many players are in your top tier, and pick the latest spot that guarantees you one of them
Exactly the point I made above, thank you.This is only true if all players selected match expectations on finish. By that I mean there is no guarantee that you get a better player at 12 than you do at 17.
I’m not sure why you keep typing this
(again this is all based on 3rr which the majority of KDS leagues use)
Yes but it happens more than it doesn't. That's like the argument of NFL players taking a QB in later rounds because earlier rounds don't mean success. You hit more on players in fantasy and in real life drafts, who are taken earlier. Of course there's no guarantee, that's why we all play this game. But it's a numbers and statistical game and it's proven that earlier picks hit at a higher rate than later picks.A
Again, this is only true if everyone makes perfect picks.....which they don't. So in theory taking the highest pick possible is the best value. In practice in never turns out that way.Based on their VBD Data, adding up all the VBD in the draft from the 1 spot is higher than all the VBD from the 12 spot. So they would argue that pick 1 is more valuable.
Or you can use their draft pick calculator and go through the whole draft with 6+19, etc vs 12+12, etc and it will show that they value the 6 pick higher than the 12 pick.