KDS “Kentucky derby style” Drafting: what’s your preferred order of preference? (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah, I’m still not sure about that, but it’s possible, I admit. It’s an important part of the draft, and while having 12/13/25 is an advantage over 1/24/36, team 12’s next pick isn’t until 48, which is a pretty massive drop-off compared to having 36/37.

Like I said, still on the fence about it.

But what is it really doing for you? It's not necessary and even if it skews it a little bit why do you need to do that?

That’s what I’m sayin - I’m not seeing a great benefit. And while the 12-spot (to continue the example) gets back to back picks 12-13, they’re basically in the middle for 3 rounds, getting 25, 36 & 48

They might as well be drafting 6-7-8 in terms of pick predictability.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let me be clear: I’m not saying pick predictability is the only thing, or even the main thing, but it is a factor & it does have value.

It’s not always about breaking out the slide rule to determine the value of hypothetical picks that may or may not have those real world values.

 

[Deamon]

Sizable was probably the wrong term. It is more like a minor advantage

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.


You could go through the whole draft adding the next round and saying "well what about this round, they get earlier there then", but the bottom line is, it's more expensive to move up in a fantasy or real draft in the 1st than it is in the 5th. The difference in value between the first pick of a round and the last pick of a round, increases the earlier you are in the draft. 12 to 1 is a big jump. 24 to 13 is a slightly smaller value jump. 36-25 is an even smaller jump.


Saying the value jump from 24 to 13 is equal to the value jump from 12 to 1 (what you're saying when you say there is NO difference/increased value in 1.01+2.12 vs 1.12 + 2.01), would mean that 3RR wouldn't even give the SLIGHTEST edge to a later draft pick since 3.01+4.12 is no better in your mind than 3.12+4.01. If you think 3RR even gives a "minor advantage" as you state in your words, than 1.01+2.12 is also a 'minor advantage" to 1.12+2.01.

You can't argue both sides of the coin.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.

When looking back after the season, 1.12/2.01 might turn out to be significantly more valuable.

 

[Deamon]

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.

When looking back after the season, 1.12/2.01 might turn out to be significantly more valuable.

Of course it might. Such a lazy way of thinking.

 

[Deamon]

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.

When looking back after the season, 1.12/2.01 might turn out to be significantly more valuable.

The point was, if you think 3RR adds value to those picking later in the draft (not saying you claimed this, but Gally did and then retracted... kind of), then that means you think there's more value to having a top pick in a higher round. And that is the reason thousands of leagues went to 3RR.... to even it out and give more value to a later pick. Really not sure what you're not getting here, man.

 

[Gally]

Sizable was probably the wrong term. It is more like a minor advantage

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.


You could go through the whole draft adding the next round and saying "well what about this round, they get earlier there then", but the bottom line is, it's more expensive to move up in a fantasy or real draft in the 1st than it is in the 5th. The difference in value between the first pick of a round and the last pick of a round, increases the earlier you are in the draft. 12 to 1 is a big jump. 24 to 13 is a slightly smaller value jump. 36-25 is an even smaller jump.


Saying the value jump from 24 to 13 is equal to the value jump from 12 to 1 (what you're saying when you say there is NO difference/increased value in 1.01+2.12 vs 1.12 + 2.01), would mean that 3RR wouldn't even give the SLIGHTEST edge to a later draft pick since 3.01+4.12 is no better in your mind than 3.12+4.01. If you think 3RR even gives a "minor advantage" as you state in your words, than 1.01+2.12 is also a 'minor advantage" to 1.12+2.01.

You can't argue both sides of the coin.

Ok. I stand corrected. You are right. I misspoke. I don't think there is any advantage to 3RR. I just feel it's not necessary since there is no slot advantage for a standard snake either.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.

When looking back after the season, 1.12/2.01 might turn out to be significantly more valuable.

Of course it might. Such a lazy way of thinking.

It’s not about laziness.

It further bolsters my earlier comment that values slide.

As @Gally eluded to - things happen in a draft that greatly differ from what happens on paper, and we’re merely drafting with the assumptions that player X is going to perform to group-think.

Personally I wouldn’t spend a 1st round pick on CMC, and I find it a bit crazy that his ADP is 1.02 (and he’s being drafted 1.01) as though he’s risk-free. There’s absolutely no discount baked into his price right now. There should have been last season, and there should be this season.

But groupthink tells us he’s 1.02, and millions of FF managers will draft him there. Does that mean he’s going to pay off there? Of course not.

And similarly, players at the 12-13 turn could be more valuable than 2 + 23.

I’ve looked back at past seasons and marveled at which players in the 2nd and 3rd round out-performed players in the 1st round. Last year I took Higgins at 7.01 - safe to say he outperformed that value by juuuust a stitch.

Nothing lazy about it - I just don’t believe 2+23 is necessarily better than 12+13 as a general blanket statement.

 

[Gally]

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.

When looking back after the season, 1.12/2.01 might turn out to be significantly more valuable.

Of course it might. Such a lazy way of thinking.

But that is kind of the entire point. Nobody knows what has more value until the season is over. Trying to say a pick is more valuable then another when you have no idea how that pick will perform is just guesswork. Unless you can guarantee that you are selecting the optimal player for each pick you cannot assign value either way. You are just guessing. That is why I don't believe there is any draft slot advantage in snake drafts. It's all a guess.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well according to you, there's zero advantage at all to it. None. Otherwise 1.01/2.12 would have a 'slight' advantage over 1.12/2.01 and you claim there is none.

When looking back after the season, 1.12/2.01 might turn out to be significantly more valuable.

The point was, if you think 3RR adds value to those picking later in the draft (not saying you claimed this, but Gally did and then retracted... kind of), then that means you think there's more value to having a top pick in a higher round. And that is the reason thousands of leagues went to 3RR.... to even it out and give more value to a later pick. Really not sure what you're not getting here, man.

It’s not that I’m not getting it, it’s that I don’t necessarily agree that it is a solution.

It’s an attempt at a solution. And it kinda seems like it could be better.

But I don’t see it as a solution as compared to say, auction drafting.

I’ll give it a C- as far as attempts at a solution to “fixing” standard snake drafting goes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That is why I don't believe there is any draft slot advantage in snake drafts. It's all a guess.

I think there is a slot advantage to the turns, since back to back (or as close as you can get to them) in theory provides less tier drop-offs on the turn side picks.

I also believe the 6-7-8 slots are more difficult for the same reason in reverse - there’s always a tier drop & you have to work hard to nail the picks, with less flexibility on roster construction.

 

[Gally]

I’ll give it a C- as far as attempts at a solution to “fixing” standard snake drafting goes.

But what do you need to fix about a standard snake draft. The thing auctions improve upon is that you have the ability to get any player you want where a draft does not afford you that ability. But is there a "value" deficiency in a snake draft? I don't think so.

 

[Gally]

That is why I don't believe there is any draft slot advantage in snake drafts. It's all a guess.

I think there is a slot advantage to the turns, since back to back (or as close as you can get to them) in theory provides less tier drop-offs on the turn side picks.

I also believe the 6-7-8 slots are more difficult for the same reason in reverse - there’s always a tier drop & you have to work hard to nail the picks, with less flexibility on roster construction.

These are personal preferences to me. Not advantages. I know plenty of guys that believe they do better from the middle for the opposite reasons you have stated from the end.

 

[yoman]

That is why I don't believe there is any draft slot advantage in snake drafts. It's all a guess.

I think there is a slot advantage to the turns, since back to back (or as close as you can get to them) in theory provides less tier drop-offs on the turn side picks.

I also believe the 6-7-8 slots are more difficult for the same reason in reverse - there’s always a tier drop & you have to work hard to nail the picks, with less flexibility on roster construction.

Unless you are in ridiculously slow draft and it takes a few days to get through 2 rounds I think there could definitely be an advantage at the turn. However must admit that it is a little painful watching 2 rounds of players go without having a pick. I also think it depends on the skill of the drafters to be able to take advantage of this situation. I watched almost every WR I wanted go off the board between my 2 and 3rd round pick. HSG talked me off a cliff and not take 2 WRs since the value wasn't there at 3.12 and I am now staying truer to my draft board.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

These are personal preferences to me. Not advantages. I know plenty of guys that believe they do better from the middle for the opposite reasons you have stated from the end.

True - and thinking back, my last LCG ‘ship was a league I drafted from 7.

I was the stopper. I hated the pick so much, I vowed that no player who slid in value would make it past me. And round after round I got a really good value.

You can absolutely crush from any draft position.

It’s a fascinating discussion though, for those of us who pick our own poison.

 

[FairWarning]

No, not saying that. I’m as yet undecided on whether it’s a good thing or not.

I contemplated putting it up to vote in my league this year, but I’m trying to decide if it really does lend balance.

So in my opinion, it’s TBD.

I have thought about it and I believe it gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft. It's why I have never done one.

Yeah, I’m still not sure about that, but it’s possible, I admit. It’s an important part of the draft, and while having 12/13/25 is an advantage over 1/24/36, team 12’s next pick isn’t until 48, which is a pretty massive drop-off compared to having 36/37.

Like I said, still on the fence about it.

I preferred the 12/13/25. Another reason I don’t like the 1sr pick is it is almost reactionary to last year. What are the odds that Taylor repeats 2021? If you want to go CMC, what are his odds he plays 17 games?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Another reason I don’t like the 1sr pick is it is almost reactionary to last year. What are the odds that Taylor repeats 2021? If you want to go CMC, what are his odds he plays 17 games?

An excellent point.

And you can take someone other than JT fro. 1.01 but then you have to live it down if he blows up and the dude you took doesn’t.

 

[FairWarning]

Another reason I don’t like the 1sr pick is it is almost reactionary to last year. What are the odds that Taylor repeats 2021? If you want to go CMC, what are his odds he plays 17 games?

An excellent point.

And you can take someone other than JT fro. 1.01 but then you have to live it down if he blows up and the dude you took doesn’t.

In that case, you’re probably better off taking JT and trading him. Offering the 1.1 around to 5-6 teams who didn’t like their draft could return a nice haul also.

 

[Deamon]

I have thought about it and I believe it gives an sizeable advantage to drafting at the end of the draft. It's why I have never done one.

OK you caught me. Sizable was probably the wrong term. It is more like a minor advantage

Ok. I stand corrected. You are right. I misspoke. I don't think there is any advantage

So thought about it and sizable advantage, then minor advantage, and then no advantage. Got it. Glad you're coming around.

 

[Deamon]

I’ll give it a C- as far as attempts at a solution to “fixing” standard snake drafting goes.

But you said it doesn't need fixing and that end of draft is equally as beneficial. Man when you dig in you really dig in, don't you.

 

[Deamon]

These are personal preferences to me. Not advantages. I know plenty of guys that believe they do better from the middle for the opposite reasons you have stated from the end.

There you go, now you're getting it. There's definitely personal preferences. And there's a reason FFPC and so many big money leagues choose 3RR. But I guess you're smarter than all them.

 

[Deamon]

Personally I wouldn’t spend a 1st round pick on CMC, and I find it a bit crazy that his ADP is 1.02 (and he’s being drafted 1.01) as though he’s risk-free. There’s absolutely no discount baked into his price right now. There should have been last season, and there should be this season.

But groupthink tells us he’s 1.02, and millions of FF managers will draft him there. Does that mean he’s going to pay off there? Of course not.

And similarly, players at the 12-13 turn could be more valuable than 2 + 23.

I’ve looked back at past seasons and marveled at which players in the 2nd and 3rd round out-performed players in the 1st round. Last year I took Higgins at 7.01 - safe to say he outperformed that value by juuuust a stitch.

Wow looks like you're smarter than everyone out there then

I know that's your MO though.

 

[Deamon]

Another reason I don’t like the 1sr pick is it is almost reactionary to last year. What are the odds that Taylor repeats 2021? If you want to go CMC, what are his odds he plays 17 games?

An excellent point.

And you can take someone other than JT fro. 1.01 but then you have to live it down if he blows up and the dude you took doesn’t.

with the 1.01, you're not looking for the #1 player in the league. If you are, you're going to be disappointed. You play odds. Does Taylor have a better chance at being a top 5 back than someone at the end of the draft? Ya, that's why he's taken there. Your guy at the end of round 1 that you like so much has JUST as much of a chance to bust or get hurt or underperform as people at the top. You're acting like only the top guys bust. Why does any player go high in NFL drafts then? What's the difference? Should they all just want lower picks because "who knows what could happen, you could get Tom Brady if you take QB's in the 6th and you could get Jamarcus Russel if you take one 1.01 so no point in ever taking a QB that high or wanting a higher pick". Again it's lazy thinking.

 

[Gally]

These are personal preferences to me. Not advantages. I know plenty of guys that believe they do better from the middle for the opposite reasons you have stated from the end.

There you go, now you're getting it. There's definitely personal preferences. And there's a reason FFPC and so many big money leagues choose 3RR. But I guess you're smarter than all them.

Not smarter at all. Just disagree with the need for it. There are too many variables for the perceived value difference to actually become meaningful in practice. It's all theoretical and since the actual draft never follows actual end of season value the theoretical perceptions are meaningless.


ETA: If I could go in a time machine and go in the future and get the final point totals for the season and came back to draft with that information and took the highest scoring point total guy left at each of my picks I would get ridiculed as leaving value on the table the entire draft. Everyone would think I was crazy for whom I was taking even though it was the best possible pick at that moment. This is why the perceived value is just that.....perceived. It has no real meaning and based on groupthink assignments.

 

[Deamon]

Not smarter at all. Just disagree with the need for it. There are too many variables for the perceived value difference to actually become meaningful in practice. It's all theoretical and since the actual draft never follows actual end of season value the theoretical perceptions are meaningless.

Here's some data that might help you understand things better.

 

[Gally]

Not smarter at all. Just disagree with the need for it. There are too many variables for the perceived value difference to actually become meaningful in practice. It's all theoretical and since the actual draft never follows actual end of season value the theoretical perceptions are meaningless.

Here's some data that might help you understand things better.

I have seen that data and completely understand it. It is all based on every team drafting optimally from each draft position. That is impossible and will never happen so that data is not relevant. It is only relevant if everyone drafts perfectly.

I posted this a little late since you already responded but take this example:

If I could go in a time machine and go in the future and get the final point totals for the season and came back to draft with that information and took the highest scoring point total guy left at each of my picks I would get ridiculed as leaving value on the table the entire draft. Everyone would think I was crazy for whom I was taking even though it was the best possible pick at that moment. This is why the perceived value is just that.....perceived. It has no real meaning and based on groupthink assignments.


All of that data is based on theory and requires everyone to make the optimal pick every single time. Since nobody knows the future that will not happen and each time it doesn't the models lose their accuracy. In theory you are correct based on all that theoretical computation but in real life it doesn't play out that way.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ll give it a C- as far as attempts at a solution to “fixing” standard snake drafting goes.

But you said it doesn't need fixing and that end of draft is equally as beneficial. Man when you dig in you really dig in, don't you.

I didn’t say it didn’t need fixing. That was @Gally

I have consistently said I wasn’t sure how I feel about it. But as far as attempts to, this is an interesting attempt.

I’m still unconvinced it’s broken, or that this “fix” is that good.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Wow looks like you're smarter than everyone out there then

I know that's your MO though.

There’s really no need for personal attacks - we have a difference of opinion. I’m open to the idea of 3RR being better than snake. But I’m not convinced it is.

I’ve not insulted you once during this exchange, so I’m not sure why you feel the need to insult me. Weird.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There you go, now you're getting it. There's definitely personal preferences. And there's a reason FFPC and so many big money leagues choose 3RR. But I guess you're smarter than all them.

Ease up on the condescension there, friend. We’re all just having a nice discussion here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ok, so it’s apparent how @Deamon feels.

Anyone else care to weigh in on how you’d set your KDS order if you had the choice?

1-12, what’s your draft preference? (Like, if it were randomly drawn, how would you set your order or preference & why?)

 

[Deamon]

Since nobody knows the future that will not happen and each time it doesn't the models lose their accuracy. In theory you are correct based on all that theoretical computation but in real life it doesn't play out that way.

I never once suggested this. Do I think the #1 pick is likely to win the league? Absolutely not. Can the 12 win if he drafts well, just as good as the 1 can if he drafts well? Absolutely! I've won many leagues by drawing the 10 or 11 spot. I've also bombed many leagues when having the #1 overall pick. But to simply say "it doesn't matter at all where you draft because anything can happen", is lazy. It's the reason teams in all sports trade up in drafts, it's the reason 3RR was invented and is used in the big money leagues and tournaments, etc. Of course I agree that it's how you draft and not where you draft. I'm saying that IF you have a choice in a non 3RR draft, there is more value and a higher hit rate on being higher in the draft.

Personal preferences come into play.... maybe you like the long break so you can clear your mind between picks. Maybe your lucky number is 7. Maybe you love the strategy of taking the top TE so you pick a spot where you can get him. All of this is an educated and calculated guessing game. You're creating a Straw Man here and acting like I'm suggesting the higher the pick, the better your team will be. I've never claimed that. All I'm saying is in a non 3RR, you maximize your value and VBD points, by drafting earlier. Look at FBG VBD numbers and add them all up for someone drafting from the 1 spot, 2 spot, etc until the end, and it's higher from the beginning. Don't like their rankings? Make your own and see.

 

[Deamon]

I didn’t say it didn’t need fixing.

I’m still unconvinced it’s broken.

Ok lol

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I didn’t say it didn’t need fixing.

I’m still unconvinced it’s broken.

Ok lol

Why is that so hard to grasp?

Snake drafting in general is flawed.

I’ve said multiple times that the only real fix is to love to an auction draft.

So I’m saying, in the context of an already flawed system, I’m not sure the 3RR fixes the flaw.

Maybe that’s more clear. Regardless, personal attacks are still way out of line and add nothing to the discussion.

 

[FairWarning]

Another reason I don’t like the 1sr pick is it is almost reactionary to last year. What are the odds that Taylor repeats 2021? If you want to go CMC, what are his odds he plays 17 games?

An excellent point.

And you can take someone other than JT fro. 1.01 but then you have to live it down if he blows up and the dude you took doesn’t.

with the 1.01, you're not looking for the #1 player in the league. If you are, you're going to be disappointed. You play odds. Does Taylor have a better chance at being a top 5 back than someone at the end of the draft? Ya, that's why he's taken there. Your guy at the end of round 1 that you like so much has JUST as much of a chance to bust or get hurt or underperform as people at the top. You're acting like only the top guys bust. Why does any player go high in NFL drafts then? What's the difference? Should they all just want lower picks because "who knows what could happen, you could get Tom Brady if you take QB's in the 6th and you could get Jamarcus Russel if you take one 1.01 so no point in ever taking a QB that high or wanting a higher pick". Again it's lazy thinking.

Some like drafting names also.

 

[Deamon]

I didn’t say it didn’t need fixing.

I’m still unconvinced it’s broken.

Ok lol

Why is that so hard to grasp?

Snake drafting in general is flawed.

I’ve said multiple times that the only real fox is to love to an auction draft.

So I’m saying, in the context of an already flawed system, I’m not sure the 3RR fixes the flaw.

Maybe that’s more clear. Regardless, personal attacks are still way out of line and add nothing to the discussion.

What is the flawed system with a snake? Make another thread!

 

[TZMarkie]

Ok, so it’s apparent how @Deamon feels.

Anyone else care to weigh in on how you’d set your KDS order if you had the choice?

1-12, what’s your draft preference? (Like, if it were randomly drawn, how would you set your order or preference & why?)

I mentioned it in the CMC thread, but in my biggest league we do in fact pick our draft slots, after a "draft lottery".
I was pulled 2nd , and one buddy actually was chosen 1st, and he opted to go 2nd.
Figured I'd go ahead and take #1, as thats the first time in the history of that league I'd ever had #1.

(good chance I will take CMC, as I'm OFF Jonathan Taylor this year) Not 100% sure yet, but I'm debating until Monday night in the draft.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What is the flawed system with a snake? Make another thread!

This topic was asking the forum which KDS order they’d choose.

Snake drafts were inherently flawed because not everyone has the same chance at every player like auction drafts.

There. No new topic needed.

You’re very convinced of your takes in here, which is fine. But you can’t expect everyone to agree with them, and insult them when they don’t. That’s not how friendly discussions go.

 

[Deamon]

Figured I'd go ahead and take #1, as thats the first time in the history of that league I'd ever had #1.

For sure. It's a nice feeling to have no stress going into the draft and knowing you can have whichever player you want at 1. IF you do see Taylor and CMC as the same, 2 is a good spot so you can play your opponent on the turn and get more value that way.

 

[Deamon]

What is the flawed system with a snake? Make another thread!

This topic was asking the forum which KDS order they’d choose.

Snake drafts were inherently flawed because not everyone has the same chance at every player like auction drafts.

There. No new topic needed.

You’re very convinced of your takes in here, which is fine. But you can’t expect everyone to agree with them, and insult them when they don’t. That’s not how friendly discussions go.

It's not an insult. Apologize if you took it that way. Your reputation (of a poster not a person) precedes you, and you like to dig in and act superior. I'm looking at this purely from a data standpoint, that the sum of the VBD numbers is higher from an earlier draft pick. Thousands of leagues use 3RR as it makes people think a lot more about where they'd like to draft in a KDS. Yikes, pot calling the kettle black on your last line there!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ok, so it’s apparent how @Deamon feels.

Anyone else care to weigh in on how you’d set your KDS order if you had the choice?

1-12, what’s your draft preference? (Like, if it were randomly drawn, how would you set your order or preference & why?)

I mentioned it in the CMC thread, but in my biggest league we do in fact pick our draft slots, after a "draft lottery".
I was pulled 2nd , and one buddy actually was chosen 1st, and he opted to go 2nd.
Figured I'd go ahead and take #1, as thats the first time in the history of that league I'd ever had #1.

(good chance I will take CMC, as I'm OFF Jonathan Taylor this year) Not 100% sure yet, but I'm debating until Monday night in the draft.

In my house league that does KDS (same thing as you describe above) 1 picked 1.02 last year leaving me (picked 2nd) with the 1-slot. Where I took CMC and suffered the consequences.

Best of luck!

 

[Deamon]

Ok, so it’s apparent how @Deamon feels.

Anyone else care to weigh in on how you’d set your KDS order if you had the choice?

1-12, what’s your draft preference? (Like, if it were randomly drawn, how would you set your order or preference & why?)

I mentioned it in the CMC thread, but in my biggest league we do in fact pick our draft slots, after a "draft lottery".
I was pulled 2nd , and one buddy actually was chosen 1st, and he opted to go 2nd.
Figured I'd go ahead and take #1, as thats the first time in the history of that league I'd ever had #1.

(good chance I will take CMC, as I'm OFF Jonathan Taylor this year) Not 100% sure yet, but I'm debating until Monday night in the draft.

How did the rest of the draft slots get taken? In what order?

 

[TZMarkie]

Ok, so it’s apparent how @Deamon feels.

Anyone else care to weigh in on how you’d set your KDS order if you had the choice?

1-12, what’s your draft preference? (Like, if it were randomly drawn, how would you set your order or preference & why?)

I mentioned it in the CMC thread, but in my biggest league we do in fact pick our draft slots, after a "draft lottery".
I was pulled 2nd , and one buddy actually was chosen 1st, and he opted to go 2nd.
Figured I'd go ahead and take #1, as thats the first time in the history of that league I'd ever had #1.

(good chance I will take CMC, as I'm OFF Jonathan Taylor this year) Not 100% sure yet, but I'm debating until Monday night in the draft.

How did the rest of the draft slots get taken? In what order?

I'm not aware of the full list yet, its not quite final.
It usually takes us a day or so as we have league members literally scattered all across the country in this particular league.....different time zones etc. etc.

(I will probably know in the next 24 hours and I will post it for anyone interested)


QUICK EDIT - I DO* know that the guy that was pulled 4th (the top 3 picked the first 3 spots) the guy that pulled 4th went straight to the back of the draft at 12.

 

[Deamon]

In my 4 KDS leagues, it pretty much went back and forth from the start to the end of the draft. first 3 picks and last 3 picks were consistently the first 6 picks off the board. 3RR in all those leagues of course. 7/8 were the last 2 taken as you miss out on all the value at the top end, and the end is also attractive as you get the high pick adjustment in round 3.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's not an insult. Apologize if you took it that way. Your reputation (of a poster not a person) precedes you, and you like to dig in and act superior. I'm looking at this purely from a data standpoint, that the sum of the VBD numbers is higher from an earlier draft pick. Thousands of leagues use 3RR as it makes people think a lot more about where they'd like to draft in a KDS. Yikes, pot calling the kettle black on your last line there!

I’m not acting superior in any way, nor do I ever do that here. I would expect everyone posting their opinions here to be confident in them, or what’s the point of expressing them? Debates are friendly, and I’m always open to learning from others. And if I didn’t have that reputation with others before, someone might develop it from that characterization.

Anyway, I think the biggest difference between my approach to draft slot and yours (and to some extent @Gally’s) is that some folks approach it with a calculator, and some with a paint brush. And some apply elements of both.

Like I said earlier - there’s an art and a science to it.

We’ve all said at various points that you can win a league from any draft position.

I feel like there are some advantages to picking last, regardless of what the math suggests. Because as Gally has said, that math depends on inputs we just don’t have. So I get that it frustrates you when you say “but 1+1 is 2” and I respond “but 1+1 might be 3” - but the fact is that you don’t know that 1 is actually 1. Neither do I. Neither does anyone. We’re all just making best guesses at those inputs every year, and historically our collective track record is horrific. lol

ADP / tiers are all the result of groupthink. If one disagrees with the group, one might draft very differently.

Also the concept of all the eggs in one basket applies. You astutely pointed out that the deeper into the draft one gets, the less value is assigned to picks. The converse is then true - 1st round picks are the most valuable. And if I feel like I can get 2x 1st round values at 12 in a given year, but I can’t at 6, then I’m going to select 12 over 6. Even though on paper, we collectively believe Chase is > Adams, Chase might not actually be better than Adams. I believe Adams could, realistically, finish as the WR1 this year. His team has a crap defense and they’re in a high powered division. That’s a lot of shootouts. Then the 2nd pick is 1 pick later, so theoretically a similar tier. And similarly someone like Barkley or Kamara could finish as the RB1.

So one could argue that having picks 12-13 could produce the FF RB1 & WR1

Good luck doing that from 1.01, or 1.06

Again, these are just hypotheticals. I’m not saying any of this is going to happen, I’m just saying why I, personally might prefer pick 12 over anything else. I wouldn’t be concentrating the most draft capital into one guy (CMC, JT, etc) and maybe, just maybe the art would be > the math.

Again, since no one really knows what the value of any player actually is yet.

Obviously this is within reason, and I’m not completely discounting rankings. Many people smarter than me put a lot of work into composite rankings, and I’m sure they’ll get a lot of them right.

But they’ll also get a lot wrong. That was my point about Higgins earlier - not that I’m smarter than everyone, but that they completely missed on Higgins valuation.

 

[TZMarkie]

OK, our draft order has been finalized.
This might be a tad hard to decipher, but I will post it just for other board members to see what "outsiders" away from this site sometimes do.

TEAM A - PICKED 1ST, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #2
TEAM B (YOURS TRULY) - PICKED 2ND, I OPTED FOR #1 OVERALL.
TEAM C - PICKED 3RD, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #3
TEAM D - PICKED 4TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #12
TEAM E - PICKED 5TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #7
TEAM F - PICKED 6TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #10
TEAM G - PICKED 7TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #4
TEAM H - PICKED 8TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #5
TEAM I - PICKED 9TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #11
TEAM J - PICKED 10TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #8
TEAM K - PICKED 11TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #6
TEAM L - PICKED 12TH, HAD TO TAKE THE FINAL SPOT #9


A few noteworthy items -
This is a long running 12 teamer, where all owners are competitive and "aware", but there are a few owners sharper than others/sharks.
This is a start 3WRs/2RB, QB, TE, DEF, K, and NO FLEX. Seven bench spots.
All TDs are 6 points, including passing TDs. 6 teams make the playoffs. Many teams are willing to "die with who they drafted", and you only see 3-4 trades a year generally.

I essentially host the league, so I am in constant contact with everyone.
I will say this about "TEAM D" , who was picked 4th, and opted for draft spot 12. In recent years he was always going earlier in drafts if possible, and he noticed a couple of us consistently moving "to the back" of the draft order. (and we are usually "in the running" at the end of season)
I think he just wanted to go late this season to try something he doesn't usually do....but thats just a guess, or maybe he just wanted 2 later picks
knowing he could get who he wanted there.

I'm currently having "drafters remorse" , and wishing I'd went to the back and not screwed around with#1 overall. Part of this, is we start 3 WRs, and I like trying to "beat the league" at wide out, getting 2-3 top 20 guys if possible. This is far easier drafting in later slots, and then relying on injuries to accumulate to RBs and my teams generally get stronger as the season goes on.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

TEAM A - PICKED 1ST, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #2
TEAM B (YOURS TRULY) - PICKED 2ND, I OPTED FOR #1 OVERALL.
TEAM C - PICKED 3RD, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #3
TEAM D - PICKED 4TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #12
TEAM E - PICKED 5TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #7
TEAM F - PICKED 6TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #10
TEAM G - PICKED 7TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #4
TEAM H - PICKED 8TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #5
TEAM I - PICKED 9TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #11
TEAM J - PICKED 10TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #8
TEAM K - PICKED 11TH, OPTED FOR DRAFT SLOT #6
TEAM L - PICKED 12TH, HAD TO TAKE THE FINAL SPOT #9

Looks a lot like my home league every year.

Last year 1 picked 2, like yours.
2 (me) picked 1 (CMC )
3 took 3
4 took 4
5 took 12
6 took 5
7 took 11
8 took 10

Forget the exact order from there, but 7 is usually last.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm currently having "drafters remorse" , and wishing I'd went to the back and not screwed around with#1 overall. Part of this, is we start 3 WRs, and I like trying to "beat the league" at wide out, getting 2-3 top 20 guys if possible. This is far easier drafting in later slots, and then relying on injuries to accumulate to RBs and my teams generally get stronger as the season goes on.

There's no rule against marching up to the draft board and selecting Justin Jefferson 1.01

I had pick 1.02 in an NFC league and took JJ over CMC, Eke, & Kupp. Go with your gut. I love the team I built from 2 that way - it's *easily* the best of the 3 NFC teams I drafted. I went 4 straight WRs (we do have flex) in JJ, Evans, Williams, ARob, and ended up with JKDobbins & AJ Dillon as my RBs. Hock & Brady round out the starting lineup. The short turns were great to me every time - team 1.01 had a rough draft, and never took anyone I wanted.

 

[efactor]

I'm currently having "drafters remorse" , and wishing I'd went to the back and not screwed around with#1 overall. Part of this, is we start 3 WRs, and I like trying to "beat the league" at wide out, getting 2-3 top 20 guys if possible. This is far easier drafting in later slots, and then relying on injuries to accumulate to RBs and my teams generally get stronger as the season goes on.

There's no rule against marching up to the draft board and selecting Justin Jefferson 1.01

I had pick 1.02 in an NFC league and took JJ over CMC, Eke, & Kupp. Go with your gut. I love the team I built from 2 that way - it's *easily* the best of the 3 NFC teams I drafted. I went 4 straight WRs (we do have flex) in JJ, Evans, Williams, ARob, and ended up with JKDobbins & AJ Dillon as my RBs. Hock & Brady round out the starting lineup. The short turns were great to me every time - team 1.01 had a rough draft, and never took anyone I wanted.

The bolded comment just got me thinking about how one pick, everything else being equal, can mean the difference between a good and great season:

Last year, I had an FFPC main event team and at 3.8, drafted Allen Robinson when my instinct said to take Cooper Kupp. Missed the playoffs by about 20 points (2 top records and 2 remaining high scorers make it).

In my local league, had the same choice in the 3rd and went Cooper Kupp. Despite a lot of injuries, was still the #1 seed due to his big season (lost in semi-finals).

Extreme I know, but just saying