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Keenan Allen vs Vincent Brown - are we missing the boat? (1 Viewer)

R

rickyg

Footballguy
1) chargers offense looking way better than anticipated. Their defense is such that they should end up in shoot outs all year.

2) the demise of rivers has been greatly overstated.

3) Vincent brown has done very little with his opportunities this far, outshines by Eddie royal.

4) Eddie royal is now a fixture in the lineup.

5) Malcolm Floyd is out for a month. Very underreported it seems.

6) Keenan Allen drew praise from his week 2 performance after Floyd went down and now the chatter is he is going to start in place of Floyd.

I haven't watched any SD games yet. Is royal in the slot and only in in 3 wr sets? Or was he in the outside across from Floyd?

Has brown been starting? Perhaps Allen is the true pickup here and those of us with brown should drop brown for Allen?

 
It's not much of a train mind you :) I'm going with Brown one more week and if he sucks, I'm dropping.

 
I don't know. I had Brown in a couple leagues, but I've dropped him. Gates is more involved than anticipated, and Royal seems to be the main WR guy now. Maybe Allen or Brown will amount to something this year. I could easily see that. In deeper leagues I'd roster Brown then Allen. It's hard to justify owning them in short bench leagues right now.

 
rickyg said:
1) chargers offense looking way better than anticipated. Their defense is such that they should end up in shoot outs all year.

2) the demise of rivers has been greatly overstated.

3) Vincent brown has done very little with his opportunities this far, outshines by Eddie royal.

4) Eddie royal is now a fixture in the lineup.

5) Malcolm Floyd is out for a month. Very underreported it seems.

6) Keenan Allen drew praise from his week 2 performance after Floyd went down and now the chatter is he is going to start in place of Floyd.

I haven't watched any SD games yet. Is royal in the slot and only in in 3 wr sets? Or was he in the outside across from Floyd?

Has brown been starting? Perhaps Allen is the true pickup here and those of us with brown should drop brown for Allen?
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Brown has played over 90% of the offensive snaps in the first two weeks.

I watched that game last weeks game but did not pay a lot of attention to who was on the field when but going off stats Royals snap count went from 50% range up to 70% range from week one to week two.

So I don't know if that makes Royal a fixture in the lineup but the Floyd injury certainly looks like it's going to improve his snap counts and he's the one I'd rather own out of the bunch.

Would absolutely hold onto Brown however and would prefer him over Allen by a landslide. It's true from what I've seen so far Brown is struggling to get open but he's at least playing every down with or without Floyd so it figures he's going to get more chances.

 
And how about Malcolm Floyd? I'm sure he was dropped in a ton of leagues. I'm considering dropping Brown for Floyd since I don't need receiver help for another 6 weeks or so. If everyone was healthy, what would the pecking order be? I'm thinking it may look like this:

Floyd

Royal/Gates

Brown

Allen

I feel like we're overvaluing Royal's first 2 games and forgetting that Floyd may end up being the true #1 here when he's healthy again.

 
I feel like we're overvaluing Royal's first 2 games and forgetting that Floyd may end up being the true #1 here when he's healthy again.
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I agree with this. I also think as we move along into the season people will need to start to realize they need to take performances against the poor Redskins and Eagle defenses with a grain of salt.

I was starting to think Floyd might emerge on the other side of Royal and that he might be someone to go after. After watching the 1st game vs HOU I basically felt like Brown was nowhere to be seen. After Floyd got hurt Rivers just seemed to go back to Royal more.

 
Not Sleeping said:
And how about Malcolm Floyd? I'm sure he was dropped in a ton of leagues. I'm considering dropping Brown for Floyd since I don't need receiver help for another 6 weeks or so. If everyone was healthy, what would the pecking order be? I'm thinking it may look like this:

Floyd

Royal/Gates

Brown

Allen

I feel like we're overvaluing Royal's first 2 games and forgetting that Floyd may end up being the true #1 here when he's healthy again.
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I thought floyd was a good late sleeper last year and tried to get him in a few leagues -- didn't pan out so great

 
The offense MAY be able to support 3 receivers if McCoy/Wiz keep having Rivers do his Manning impersonation. The only 2 guys I'm confident that should be consistent performers are Royal and Gates. The Rb's will get about 50-60 balls combined, then the rest of those receptions will go to the outside WR's. It's anyone's guess as to how those shake out right now.

I will say that I like KA better long term, but Brown is also a very good receiver. Royal and Rivers seem to be completely in sync and Rivers is looking at him in most of his audibles when he sees a blitz coming - which has been a TON this season. Floyd coming back in about a month will just muck everything up. I really wouldn't bother with anyone outside of Royal/Gates for weekly production (outside of a bye week) at least for a few weeks when we have a clearer picture.

 
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Eh - I am taking the patient approach. Brown is talented, he looked good in 2011, and in preseason in 2012 before he got hurt. He has also been on the field over 90% of the time, and that isn't changing anytime soon with Floyd out.

I am sticking with him and hoping for the best.

 
Someone made the comment that Brown was running Iso routes but not getting separation in a podcast recently. If Allen takes that role what are the chances of success?

Royal seems to be playing the Royal most people though Brown would get (getting a lot of short passes)

Royal sucked with the options routes at Denver but in hir Rookie year was he running similar patterns as he has this year?

 
From what I have seen, brown has a hard time getting off the line. Also cannot create any separation even going against a not so great defense last week. Maybe his injury and this offense are not meant for him. I was really looking forward to him moving around the field not being stuck on the outside running go routes all the time. Starting to feel like this could be a Jerome Simpson pick from last year.

 
L. Green is the play here, He had a great presason and I think this week is the week they're gonna finally use him.

 
T.Rex said:
REDRUM26 said:
Vincent Brown > Keenan Allen > Eddie Royal
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Only in reverse order.

Numbers speak louder than hype.
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OK, then:

Allen: 5/80 (6 targets)

Brown: 7/41 (9 targets)

Royal: 3/42 (3 targets)

What's very clear is that Gates is the #1 target as long as he's healthy, and Woodhead is going to get a lot of looks out of the backfield. Beyond that, you have Brown, who looks like a check-down option only (pathetic 6.1 ypc this year), and Royal, who has never appeared to be a difference maker (career YPC of 10.4). You have Floyd out indefinitely. And then you have Allen playing his fourth NFL game.

Here's my take on it. I think we've already seen the best game Royal is going to have this year. He has just 5 targets in the past two games. Brown hasn't shown much at the NFL level. I think San Diego will give Allen every opportunity to become their #1 WR going forward, and I think he has the skills to be effective in that role, but SD's #1 WR may only be the third option in their passing game, so you're probably looking at fantasy WR2 numbers from whoever takes the lead.

 
Royal has been getting a ton of defensive attention, that's why his production has fallen off. Did you really think D coordinators would keep ignoring him? That's why Woodhead and Matthews were burning LB's all day. Royal is dragging coverage off of them and Gates for that matter.

D coordinators will have a decision to make on who to get burned by. Royal will still be very involved, don't go dropping him just yet.

 
Beerguzzler said:
Royal has been getting a ton of defensive attention, that's why his production has fallen off. Did you really think D coordinators would keep ignoring him? That's why Woodhead and Matthews were burning LB's all day. Royal is dragging coverage off of them and Gates for that matter.

D coordinators will have a decision to make on who to get burned by. Royal will still be very involved, don't go dropping him just yet.
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Really? You think defensive coordinators are focusing coverage on Eddie Royal (a sixth-year WR who has never had 1000 yards nor more than 5 TDs) instead of Antonio Gates? Gates has scored more TDs nine years in a row than Eddie Royal has ever scored in his career. Royal has had exactly one game this season that would make defensive coordinators think anything at all about him; his previous good game before that was in October 2010.

 
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CalBear said:
Beerguzzler said:
Royal has been getting a ton of defensive attention, that's why his production has fallen off. Did you really think D coordinators would keep ignoring him? That's why Woodhead and Matthews were burning LB's all day. Royal is dragging coverage off of them and Gates for that matter.

D coordinators will have a decision to make on who to get burned by. Royal will still be very involved, don't go dropping him just yet.
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Really? You think defensive coordinators are focusing coverage on Eddie Royal (a sixth-year WR who has never had 1000 yards nor more than 5 TDs) instead of Antonio Gates? Gates has scored more TDs nine years in a row than Eddie Royal has ever scored in his career. Royal has had exactly one game this season that would make defensive coordinators think anything at all about him; his previous good game before that was in October 2010.
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Watch the games. Focus on Royal. You will notice he clears a lot of defenders out of the area or backs up the safeties. I'm not just making this up. It leaves both WR's singled up without safety help and it let's the rb's run wild with the ILB's having to give up a bigger cushion in the zones. (In the red zone in particular, Royal has drawn safety over the top help which left Woodhead flying past a LB on the sidelines.)

Which brings me back to something I've been saying about the Chargers offense for a while - Rivers will spread it around. He's an equal opportunity passer. Even more so this season where he's picking apart mismatches and taking advantages of defenses blitzing. Defenses will need to keep making adjustments or else he will keep destroying them underneath - which then leads to defenses trying to cheat up and you get a Gates 56yard TD beating an ILB with no Safety help up the seam.

 
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Rivers has never thrown much to receivers who were under 6'1". Brown is 5'11". That's part of why I don't like him as much. Rivers has always favored the big receivers. This may seem silly at first, but go look up the history.

 
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MikeHeel said:
Rivers has never thrown much to receivers who were under 6'1". Brown is 5'11". That's part of why I don't like him as much. Rivers has always favored the big receivers. This may seem silly at first, but go look up the history.
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Isn't Eddie Royal only 5'10'? Rivers has thrown to him.

 
I like Allen's skill set, I think he's the most dynamic WR they have. It looks like he can consistently beat single coverage and Rivers is starting to deliver the ball to him in anticipation of that. He might lose his starting spot if/when Floyd returns, but I hope they continue to utilize him in the passing game as I think he could give them more than Royal or Brown can. Ideally, assuming Allen can continue to develop his mental capacity for the game and if Floyd comes back, I'd like to see Floyd move back over to Brown's current spot and have either Brown or Royal in the slot.

I think if your waivers are sparse and you've got an extra spot on your roster in redraft it's probably time to consider picking Allen up.

 
Yes, Royal and Woodhead are below 6'1". Rivers throws to them now b/c he doesn't have options, but how many passes do you think they'd be getting if Floyd and Alexander were not injured this season? Four games in an injury-riddled season vs the balance of Rivers' career. I think I'll take history on that one. And he will get tall receivers at some point, and he will favor them.

 
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MikeHeel said:
Yes, Royal and Woodhead are below 6'1". Rivers throws to them now b/c he doesn't have options, but how many passes do you think they'd be getting if Floyd and Alexander were not injured this season? Four games in an injury-riddled season vs the balance of Rivers' career. I think I'll take history on that one. And he will get tall receivers at some point, and he will favor them.
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Here's hoping he starts showing a preference for Keenan Allen. :)

Do you think Rivers has primarily zeroed in on taller receivers because of his playing style, going back to what has worked for him in the past, or have taller receivers just been historically his best options (VJax, Floyd, Alexander, and of course Gates)? I had never given much thought to this previously. Who have been his options? What is your theory? Does Rivers tend to favor certain route trees more common to larger receivers?

(I do think we can eliminate RBs from the statistical analysis, as few would meet the above 6'1" criteria. Clearly, LT2 was a nice option.) (Similarly, we can also eliminate TE's from the analysis, as they generally all exceed 6'1".)

I am always looking for some edge to be gleaned from statistical analysis. :)

 
I've watched a few of the games, starting pre-season, and K.Allen looks like he will be very, very good when he starts getting more targets. He lays out for the ball, great boundary catches, and good hands.

That being said, Rivers does spread it around. V.Brown is a good route runner and reliable hands, but not that fast (maybe slower since the injury)

For this year, if M.Floyd comes back, I could see some 100 yard games in his future. But, I just noticed the Chargers were trying out a bunch of WRs, so not sure what that says about his prognosis.

Chargers | Receivers work out Tue Oct 1, 10:06 AM

The San Diego Chargers worked out free-agent WRs David Nelson (Browns), Austin Collie (Colts), Lavelle Hawkins (49ers), Derek Hagan (Buccaneers) and Matt Willis (Lions).

 
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he threw to taller receivers because he had taller receivers.

now he throws to shorter receivers because he has shorter receivers.

 
MikeHeel said:
Yes, Royal and Woodhead are below 6'1". Rivers throws to them now b/c he doesn't have options, but how many passes do you think they'd be getting if Floyd and Alexander were not injured this season? Four games in an injury-riddled season vs the balance of Rivers' career. I think I'll take history on that one. And he will get tall receivers at some point, and he will favor them.
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so, he throws to these 2 short guys because he doesn't have taller options, but he ignores brown because he prefers taller options.

that makes sense

 
Black said:
I've watched a few of the games, starting pre-season, and K.Allen looks like he will be very, very good when he starts getting more targets. He lays out for the ball, great boundary catches, and good hands.

That being said, Rivers does spread it around. V.Brown is a good route runner and reliable hands, but not that fast (maybe slower since the injury)

For this year, if M.Floyd comes back, I could see some 100 yard games in his future. But, I just noticed the Chargers were trying out a bunch of WRs, so not sure what that says about his prognosis.

Chargers | Receivers work out Tue Oct 1, 10:06 AM

The San Diego Chargers worked out free-agent WRs David Nelson (Browns), Austin Collie (Colts), Lavelle Hawkins (49ers), Derek Hagan (Buccaneers) and Matt Willis (Lions).
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I agree with this. I think Keenan Allen is the guy with the most upside. He came into the league being touted as one of the most NFL-ready wideouts, but he has been slow to step up his game.

 
Black said:
V.Brown is a good route runner and reliable hands, but not that fast (maybe slower since the injury)
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I'm not sure about slower, but he looks more tentative, less aggressive.

He used to remind me a bit of Dwayne Bowe in that if you threw the ball to him in a crowd, he had a way of being the one to out-muscle the other players for position and get to the ball and make the catch. Currently, however, he reminds me of Dwayne Bowe because he hasn't been able to do that this year; he's let the DBs make plays on the ball.

 
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socrates said:
Black said:
I've watched a few of the games, starting pre-season, and K.Allen looks like he will be very, very good when he starts getting more targets. He lays out for the ball, great boundary catches, and good hands.

That being said, Rivers does spread it around. V.Brown is a good route runner and reliable hands, but not that fast (maybe slower since the injury)

For this year, if M.Floyd comes back, I could see some 100 yard games in his future. But, I just noticed the Chargers were trying out a bunch of WRs, so not sure what that says about his prognosis.

Chargers | Receivers work out Tue Oct 1, 10:06 AM

The San Diego Chargers worked out free-agent WRs David Nelson (Browns), Austin Collie (Colts), Lavelle Hawkins (49ers), Derek Hagan (Buccaneers) and Matt Willis (Lions).
Click to expand...
I agree with this. I think Keenan Allen is the guy with the most upside. He came into the league being touted as one of the most NFL-ready wideouts, but he has been slow to step up his game.
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Per RW:

Chargers placed WR Malcom Floyd on injured reserve with a neck injury, ending his season.
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Well, that was a pretty good stat line for Allen this week perhaps he continues to grow.

 
This is what being "ahead of the curve" looks like:

http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/10/keenan_allen_wr_san_diego_char.html

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers: Week 6 fantasy football waiver wire profile

The San Diego Chargers lost in disappointing fashion to the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, but it wasn't all bad. Young wide receivers Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown turned in breakout performances to generate buzz in fantasy football leagues.

For Allen it was his second straight productive outing, which merits consideration on the waiver wire this week. He caught six passes for 115 yards and a touchdown vs. Oakland. Was the performance a sign of things to come?

Overview: Rookie wide receiver carving out a bigger role in the Chargers' pass-happy offense.

Background: A third-round pick in the 2013 NFL draft after once being considered a potential first-round pick. … has gotten praise for sure hands and reliable route running and has size (6-2, 206 pounds) to become a No. 1 WR. … left as Cal's all-time leader with 205 receptions while producing 2,570 yards and 17 touchdowns.

2013 stats: 14 catches, 19 targets, 225 yards, 1 TD in 4 games

Numbers and trends: Has hauled in 11 of 15 targets in the last two weeks after accumulating just four combined targets in his first three games. ... was a healthy scratch in San Diego's season opener vs. Houston. … he and Vincent Brown both eclipsed 100 yards in a Week 5 loss to the Oakland Raiders, which could be a sign of things to come for the young duo. … caught his first touchdown vs. Oakland, a seven-yard slant in which he broke several tackles to reach the goal-line.

Strengths: Chargers offense behind QB Philip Rivers has big potential in the passing game. … against Oakland San Diego threw 49 passes, compared to just 19 running plays. … has the most potential of San Diego's wideouts, including undersized Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal. … five San Diego wideouts got at least eight targets, which could continue as Rivers evenly distributes the ball.

Risk factors: Allen is a rookie with just two productive games under his belt. … inconsistency will rear its ugly head at points throughout the season. … has competition for looks in Brown, Royal, Antonio Gates and running back Danny Woodhead.

ESPN ownership: 1.2 percent.

Verdict: Has big upside and is in the process of realizing it; worth an add in all league formats.

Holla at me if you picked him up before the masses realized that he might be this year's danario alexander!

 
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rickyg said:
This is what being "ahead of the curve" looks like:

http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/10/keenan_allen_wr_san_diego_char.html

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers: Week 6 fantasy football waiver wire profile

The San Diego Chargers lost in disappointing fashion to the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, but it wasn't all bad. Young wide receivers Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown turned in breakout performances to generate buzz in fantasy football leagues.

For Allen it was his second straight productive outing, which merits consideration on the waiver wire this week. He caught six passes for 115 yards and a touchdown vs. Oakland. Was the performance a sign of things to come?

Overview: Rookie wide receiver carving out a bigger role in the Chargers' pass-happy offense.

Background: A third-round pick in the 2013 NFL draft after once being considered a potential first-round pick. … has gotten praise for sure hands and reliable route running and has size (6-2, 206 pounds) to become a No. 1 WR. … left as Cal's all-time leader with 205 receptions while producing 2,570 yards and 17 touchdowns.

2013 stats: 14 catches, 19 targets, 225 yards, 1 TD in 4 games

Numbers and trends: Has hauled in 11 of 15 targets in the last two weeks after accumulating just four combined targets in his first three games. ... was a healthy scratch in San Diego's season opener vs. Houston. … he and Vincent Brown both eclipsed 100 yards in a Week 5 loss to the Oakland Raiders, which could be a sign of things to come for the young duo. … caught his first touchdown vs. Oakland, a seven-yard slant in which he broke several tackles to reach the goal-line.

Strengths: Chargers offense behind QB Philip Rivers has big potential in the passing game. … against Oakland San Diego threw 49 passes, compared to just 19 running plays. … has the most potential of San Diego's wideouts, including undersized Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal. … five San Diego wideouts got at least eight targets, which could continue as Rivers evenly distributes the ball.

Risk factors: Allen is a rookie with just two productive games under his belt. … inconsistency will rear its ugly head at points throughout the season. … has competition for looks in Brown, Royal, Antonio Gates and running back Danny Woodhead.

ESPN ownership: 1.2 percent.

Verdict: Has big upside and is in the process of realizing it; worth an add in all league formats.

Holla at me if you picked him up before the masses realized that he might be this year's danario alexander!
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last week hah

 
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