If you keep four guys, then the ideal set of keepers is four guys you would have taken in the first round. That's very hard to do, obviously, but if you keep that in mind your team should be competitive every year.
Rookie receivers are overrated in keeper leagues. Yeah, it's great if the guy blows up his rookie year, but only a handful of receivers do that. If they don't, you end up with Tavon Austin, or maybe Cordarelle, who is a borderline keeper headed into 2014. That might be a good thing - some would say Cordarelle is a good keeper this year, others think he's overhyped. But lets say you take Sammy Watkins in the fifth, and he ends up putting up 65 catches, 900 yards and 5 TDs. This time next year, he's a borderline redraft fourth because everyone loves his upside, so you spend a keeper spot on him. If he doesn't pan out, you wasted a good pick in 2014 and a keeper spot in 2015 and you're still not quite sure what to do in 2016.
Rookie running backs with an immediate path to the job are more valuable than talented running backs. I overpaid a little for Marcus Lattimore in my keeper leagues last year, and it was a waste. But he had legitimate stud keepability if he panned out. I'd do the same with Carlos Hyde this year. I'd be less likely to spend an early mid pick on Christine Michael, though. He probably isn't going to get the job this year, and it's fairly likely Lynch is still around next year, too. He's still valuable, because he has legitimate top ten upside, but not like in a dynasty because if he's not ready to be a keeper by this time next year, you either have to throw him back or overpay to keep him.
You probably don't want to overpay for a quarterback, either. I mean, there's nothing wrong with keeping Aaron Rodgers for his entire career. But most years, in most leagues, you'll be able to draft the top QB in the late second, early third. So the good news is that you've locked up a stud QB, and other guys are going to be chasing QB points every year because the Rodgers/Brees/Manning owners never throw them back. But the bad news is that you're pretty much always using one of your keeper spots on a guy you would have taken in the third round. And that means it's hard to get your dream team of all first round type guys.
The same thing goes with committee backs. A guy like Shane Vereen, or Jeremy Hill, or Darren Sproles a few years ago.. those guys are placeholder keepers. You don't want to have to keep them every year. It's not the worst thing in the world to keep a Vereen, but it's hard to picture him returning first round value, so you're basically keeping someone who's just barely worth being kept. Try to avoid keeping sucky guys.
The only tight ends you should overpay for are Graham and maybe Gronk, imo. Julius sounds nice, and if I had him in a keep four I'd almost certainly keep him this year. But his value turns into a pumpkin when Manning retires, and while he's a borderline top 30 player, he's not close to top ten.
Be willing to overpay for a true stud RB or stud WR. If you can keep players forever, then receivers have an added advantage, just like in dynasty. But the flip side of that is that there will usually be a few very good veteran receivers available in the draft each year. None of the good running backs ever get thrown back into the draft. Ever. That effect definitely boosts the value of the good to very good running back over the good to very good receiver.
