How do you figure value for draftpicks with 48 + guys off the board each season ( if you use your 1st round pick on a rookie you can chose to keep him as a 5th keeper) ??
How do you decide on value of positions to keep for your 4 players. I'm assuming that you look to keep your best RB's and WR's and keep only a QB that is in the top 5. Same with TE maybe the top 2 Gonzo and Gates?
TIA
These are just my opinions and how I value/rate the positions/picks:First off, when do you declare keepers? If not for a while, try to estimate which guys will be kept. Be conservative.
Now that you have established the roughly 50 guys kept, look at your team's strengths/weaknesses vs. the keeper list. In some circumstances, you might keep three RBs and one WR, or something that does not make sense other than supply and demand.
In a keep four, I cannot imagine keeping any TE other than Gates. I cannot imagine keeping any QB outside of: Palmer, Manning, McNabb, Brady, or maybe Bulger or Hass.
I look at the player pool and usually see tons of usable TEs and QBs. I am looking at building a very strong core of players to build on. I look at which positions/players will be easier to draft and which are easier to keep.
Obviously, K and Def are out of the picture.
One good benchmark might be Keys' thread or the Top 200 for the top 50 players. I would assume the top 60 players are gone, just to be conservative. Look at the distribution of the positions. Also, if it were a redraft, what would you want after 4 rounds? That gives you an indication as to distribution.
Now, to my beliefs. I value stud RBs two or three times the value of stud WRs, and even more than that for QBs and TEs. I do this because my leaguemates do so. This is the thing most people miss imho. This is where a top 200 list comes in handy. But top 3 QBs, top 3 WRs, Gates, and RBs 6-12 are roughly equitable. Very rough. Palmer is roughly worth CJohnson or roughly RB10 - Dillon/Westbrook/LJordan/Rudi depending on league scoring and personal preferences.
I think the Top 200 proves this to some degree. It might have WRS/QBs rated higher than this, but it looks at redraft. For keeper/dynasty the RBs carry even more weight than most think. If you doubt this, try to trade for a top 10 back. Last year, I traded 1.02 for Rudi and felt thrilled.
Also, if you have a keeper worther QB, TE, or other you will not keep - try to trade. You might even trade 2-for-1s to improve your keepers. In addition, try to trade all non-keepers for picks. Obviously this is not practical, but it has to be a goal. Even if you trade Bettis for the opportunity to move from pick 3.10 to 3.02, it is better than dropping him into the pool. Ithink this is a win/win. For example, I have an average RB and ask the teams REALLY hurting a RB if they are interested. I say "I know he is not worth much, but I think he helps your team". Moving up in a round or even up an entire round helps your team.
Lastly, I would try to determine what you want your team to look like come preseason and work toward that as your goal.
I do not know if this helps or just idle rambling.