Keeper Help (1 Keeper Only) (1 Viewer)

[The Yeti]

First time posting, but hoping to get some advice on a keeper for this season. 

10 Teams

We start QB, 3WR, 2RB, TE, FLEX (WR/RB/TE), K, D

.05pt. PPR, 4pt pass TDs, 6pt all other TDs (Fanduel Scoring)

1 keeper only, so it's practically a redraft. I'm having a hard time deciding between Alvin Kamara for my 1st round pick (1.05), or Melvin Gordon for my 2nd round pick (2.06). At first I was just going to keep Kamara, but I think Melvin Gordon might be a slightly better value. The 4 teams picking in front of my do not have a first round keeper. Players that I'm assuming will be available with the 1st 5 picks are most likely going to be Julio Jones, OBJ, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliot or LeVeon Bell (on the same team), and Alvin Kamara (if I don't keep him). Should I keep Gordon and hope that 1 of those 3 RBs falls to me and essentially have 2RB 1s, or do I just not take the risk, keep Kamara, and hope I get some good value at 2.06?

 

[Alkarius]

I see Gordon go at the turn of R1-R2, so I would keep him as he is better value.  At pick 5 you'll either get Kamara anyway, or some other stud.  

 

[The Yeti]

I see Gordon go at the turn of R1-R2, so I would keep him as he is better value.  At pick 5 you'll either get Kamara anyway, or some other stud.  

I don't know who will be available at pick 5 though. All the teams picking before me do not have a first round keeper, and the all the teams picking after me are keeping their studs (most likely). At this point it's speculation, but I'm assuming Bell or Elliot will be gone (they're on the same team, so that manager can only pick one), and the other will most likely be taken at 1.01. Gurley, AB, Hunt, and Hopkins are off the board. The leaves, DJ, Barkley, Julio, OBJ, and Kamara (if I don't keep him). 3 of those will be picked before me, so I can hope one of the RBs falls to me, or be "stuck" with Julio or OBJ.

 

[4th&inches]

I'm a little confused with the wording above, so I'll post both scenarios:

• Initially you stated you're picking 5th, but the 1st 4 teams don't get a 1st round pick. So, essentially your pick would be 1.01.
  
  If that's the case, this is a no brainer, keep Gordon, & draft Bell/ Elliot/ DJ/ Kamara/ Barkley with your 1st pick
  

[*]your above post gives me the impression that you have the 5th pick, but that there are actually 4 picks before you. 

• 
  If this is the case, I think it's slightly closer & more of a "who you like better" scenario.
  
  1 of: DJ/ Bell (or Elliot)/ Kamara/ Barkley/ Julio/ OBJ will be there at 1.05. So do you LIKE Kamara enough to ensure you get him? If so, keep him at 1.05. Then, who might be there in the 2nd? 
  
• I'm a Kamara believer, but I think I'd still keep Gordon and then see who falls to me in the 1st
  

please take a look at mine:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769126-keeper-draft-position-help-whir/

 

[The Yeti]

I'm a little confused with the wording above, so I'll post both scenarios:

• Initially you stated you're picking 5th, but the 1st 4 teams don't get a 1st round pick. So, essentially your pick would be 1.01.
  
  If that's the case, this is a no brainer, keep Gordon, & draft Bell/ Elliot/ DJ/ Kamara/ Barkley with your 1st pick
  

[*]your above post gives me the impression that you have the 5th pick, but that there are actually 4 picks before you. 

• 
  If this is the case, I think it's slightly closer & more of a "who you like better" scenario.
  
  1 of: DJ/ Bell (or Elliot)/ Kamara/ Barkley/ Julio/ OBJ will be there at 1.05. So do you LIKE Kamara enough to ensure you get him? If so, keep him at 1.05. Then, who might be there in the 2nd? 
  
• I'm a Kamara believer, but I think I'd still keep Gordon and then see who falls to me in the 1st
  

please take a look at mine:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769126-keeper-draft-position-help-whir/

Sorry, to clarify, our keepers cost their ADP this year. So the 4 teams picking before me do not have a keeper on their team that would take the place of their 1st round pick. Whereas the 5 teams after me have a 1st round pick on their team and therefore their keeper will take the place of their 1st round pick. So the 5 teams after me will most likely be keeping Gurley, Bell or Elliot (same team), Brown, Hunt, and Hopkins. So those 5 players are gone and then there are 4 picks before me. So I'm assuming the players that they will pick will be from the pool of Bell or Elliot, David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, Julio Jones, and OBJ.

Sorry if I'm not doing a great job at explaining this.

 

[DarkKnightsGuru]

Gordon

 

[bkterps]

I don't even know if you're "stuck" with OBJ/JULIO if you keep Kamara.  I think they will both be gone.  I think you're looking more at M.Thomas/Allen.  I see DJ going 1, Elliott going 2, and Barkley/Cook going 3 and 4.  Then after your Kamara pick some order of Gordon, Fournette, and the WRs (Julio, OBJ, Allen).  That leaves you with a team of KAMARA and THOMAS (someone like him).

If you keep Gordon, I think it still goes DJ, Elliott, and then Kamara at 3.  That leaves you with Barkley or Cook at 5 (Fournette/McCaffrey if you like them better).  That could look like GORDON and BARKLEY (or Fournette, Cook, etc.)  There's still the SLIM chance Kamara falls to you at 5.

Since you must play 2 RB, personally I would want 2 RB right off the bat due to the drop off, so I think a GORDON/BARKLEY duo is better for you than a KAMARA/THOMAS one.

FWIW, the site has Kamara 5th and Gordon 6th.  So it's Kamara and pick #10 or Gordon and pick #5.