Keeper help/strategy - auction keeper league (1 Viewer)

[fightingillini]

I am in a 10 team auction keeper league where we can keep 4-8 players.  You can keep players from a year ago for last year's salary + 10%, with adjustments made for cheap players that ended up in the top 10 at their respective positions.  I missed the playoffs last year (was 6-7) and have a team that has talent but has a lot of risk with injuries, plus it was very weak at RB (I started with Martin and CJ Anderson at RB to begin last year....both way too expensive to keep). I have good depth at QB, but they are pretty much middling QBs.  

I will list the players that I could consider to be kept and their 2017 cap values.  $200 cap, 20 players, PPR, 4 pt per TD pass for QBs, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, and 2 superflexes (yes you can start 3 QBs....QBs are valuable - for reference, Rodgers gets thrown back every year and goes for about 50)

QB - Big Ben (24), Tannehill (12), Prescott (8), Taylor (8)

RB - L Murray (9), Booker (6)

WR - Julio (23), Watkins (19), Sanders (16), Cobb (12), Snead (8), Crowder (4)

TE - Gronkowski (13)

Question is......which players (at least 4, up to 8) that you would keep, and why?  I know it's hard to answer without knowing who else is being kept, but I won't know that for a while.  Just wondering if I should start trading players with value and gut the team and look towards the future.

 

[Gally]

Here are my thoughts:

QB - you have a solid 2.5 QB's.  I would keep Ben & Dak for sure and probably Taylor due to his low cost.  Based on your comments on how valuable QB is having those three to start the season should put you ahead of the game and they cost less than Rodgers combined ($40)

RB - Nothing here of consequence so I would throw both back in to the draft.  L. Murray may have been kept but after the Vikes took Cook I wouldn't keep him.

WR -  You have to keep Julio (I am assuming $23 is a decent price for him).  I probably throw back the rest as I don't really see good value on the rest.  This gives you a lot more flexibility as you to try and fill in the rest of your roster.

TE - Keep Gronk assuming he is healthy at the time you need to declare your keepers.   

That leaves you set at QB ($40), Stud WR1 ($23) & Stud TE1 ($13) for a total of $76.  Focus on filling in the rest of your RB's and WR's with the remaining $124 remaining budget.

 

[travdogg]

I think with the superflex, that Prescott, Taylor, Roethlisberger and Tannehill are locks. Why not keep all 4 for $52? You are almost certainly starting 3 QB's every week.

I'd keep Julio, Watkins and Crowder as well. Solid starting WR trio, and not overly pricey, I'm a huge Watkins believer, others may view him as too pricey. $46

Gronk is a no-brainer. $13

So basically you are set everywhere except RB, and have $89 left to spend on 3-4 RBs and 1-2 WR's.

 

[Snorkelson]

Crowder is good value at $4. I agree with all the other stuff, qbs/julio/gronk etc.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

The fact that Julio freaking Jones presumably went for $21 last season and Gronk for $12 in a $200 cap auction (both about half their typical AAV) tells me everything I need to know about the dynamics of this league - that people are spending like drunken sailors on QB, and with good reason.

Knowing that, you almost have to keep all 4 of your QBs. You won't have the strongest stable at the position, but for $50 you'll get 3 weekly starters, cheap insurance for Big Ben, and valuable trade chips if other teams lose their QBs.

On top of that, you have to keep Julio and Gronk, because Julio and Gronk. That's another $36.

I'd keep Crowder and Snead as they should give you WR3 numbers at WR4-5 prices, plus a couple added years of value if they happen to break out big. No one else is worth the cap hit, so you've spent $98 total and locked up every position but WR2 and your RBs.

Because it's PPR, I wouldn't worry too much about dropping top dollar on stud RBs. Reserve at least $30 for the best WR left in the pool, and scatter the remaining $$ across some third-tier names who are PPR goodness (Riddick, Bernard, Duke Johnson, etc.). Your top-end WR/TE group will more than make up the gap between those RBs and the workhorse backs. Of course this assumes pricing on the non-QB studs reverts closer to reality this time around ... if beast WRs like Julio are still going in the $20 range, hell, I'd buy 3 more of them, roll out a bunch of $1 stiffs at RB, and still win every week by 30 points.

 

[fightingillini]

The fact that Julio freaking Jones presumably went for $21 last season and Gronk for $12 in a $200 cap auction (both about half their typical AAV) tells me everything I need to know about the dynamics of this league - that people are spending like drunken sailors on QB, and with good reason.

Knowing that, you almost have to keep all 4 of your QBs. You won't have the strongest stable at the position, but for $50 you'll get 3 weekly starters, cheap insurance for Big Ben, and valuable trade chips if other teams lose their QBs.

On top of that, you have to keep Julio and Gronk, because Julio and Gronk. That's another $36.

I'd keep Crowder and Snead as they should give you WR3 numbers at WR4-5 prices, plus a couple added years of value if they happen to break out big. No one else is worth the cap hit, so you've spent $98 total and locked up every position but WR2 and your RBs.

Because it's PPR, I wouldn't worry too much about dropping top dollar on stud RBs. Reserve at least $30 for the best WR left in the pool, and scatter the remaining $$ across some third-tier names who are PPR goodness (Riddick, Bernard, Duke Johnson, etc.). Your top-end WR/TE group will more than make up the gap between those RBs and the workhorse backs. Of course this assumes pricing on the non-QB studs reverts closer to reality this time around ... if beast WRs like Julio are still going in the $20 range, hell, I'd buy 3 more of them, roll out a bunch of $1 stiffs at RB, and still win every week by 30 points.

Thanks for the advice.

FYI, Julio was bought in 2011 as a rookie and went for $8.  Due to price increases (and one bump for top 10 status)....his value is now $23......Julio wasn't bid on in 2016.....he was one of my keepers.  I bought Gronk in 2011 for a buck.......I have kept him every year since.

But you're right that QBs go for insane prices if they are up for bid.  If I let Big Ben go....guaranteed he goes for $30-35 depending on the keepers and how much cash is left to spend.   Most good players that were not kept the previous year are almost always overpriced vs a normal redraft auction.

Usually about 18-20 RBs are kept, and the studs are usually kept.  Zeke went for $40 in the auction last year, so it's unclear if his owner will keep him at $44.  So I am going to have to go get a bunch of cheap options at RB and bid heavily on the rookies.

Also, all the stud WRs are kept.  I won't see ODB or AJ Green or Brown or Evans.....they will all be kept.  There will usually be one or two good WRs up for bid.  If I give up Watkins, I am pretty sure he will go for $25-30.