I am in a .5 PPR 12 team 18 roster league (pretty deep). We can keep a player, or pick a player at 1st round. 1st round is really keeper round, then order restarts in same 1-12 order in round 2 before serpentine. There are some per game bonuses that elevate elite players. Last year L. Jackson was highest scoring player. I will have pick 10 this year. The only top 24ish players I have are L. Jackson, Chubb, and D. Adams. Keep L.Jackson and hope for a sweet 2/3 turn (picks 22+27)? Or no keeper, take BPA @10?
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Keeper or not? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bash409
- Start date
This is what needs to be answered to determine if there is value in Lamar at that pick (or value in Chubb at that pick)
Also need to take a look at determining what you think teams 1-9 will be doing (keeper or not) and who that would likely put as your options at the 10 slot, and compare that to keeping Jackson/Chubb.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
excellent point also but do all 11 other teams, you know who you are putting back in the pool. Even if you "guess wrong" on the keeper for a team, should have an idea as to how many first round picks will be "keepers" and how many teams will be taking someone. And, you will have an idea of the players available.
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jwsbowler
Footballguy
If the QB scoring spread is 6+ or more from 2nd / 3rd, I am seriously considering keeping Jackson. That is a huge spread. With Adams, and yes, it was last year where he was hurt a bit, he was ranked 14th overall (R-W-T) in PPG scoring. This means I can find similar type players.
If the spread is a lot closer at the QB spot... then I might look at Adams at 10. IMO, Jackson will not fall into the late 2nd round.
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He may not. But Mahomes might if he doesn’t. Or you take Prescott if you are convinced need a QB early. I’ve always been a fan of soaking up as much stud wr and rbs as possible then getting QB and TE late. But this might be splitting hairs. So I don’t fault keeping Jackson and going without Adams. Both are good options. Btw, in half ppr fantasy has Adams adp at 8, Jackson at 14, and Mahomes at 19. So it isn’t a bad choice to keep Adams and gamble one of the two top QBs fall to you. If it doesn’t happen, there is a great opportunity to hammer out two solid RBs, then start the run there and get more WRs after.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
I don't look at ADP, as to me, it is not a true indicator. I am also not a fan of Prescott, he would be a QB that I would not take early. I do understand were you are coming from with Adams, but if the scoring is out of whack and a big margin, that is just a benefit to your team.
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If it is straight half ppr, the difference between LJax and DPrescott vs. Adams and Holliday ends up in about 1 ppg difference according to the projections of fantasy pros. So I would take the gamble and see if LJax or Mahomes falls to me. But if he didn’t I would then soak up RBs and continue to hammer on WRs and value RBs after.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
And I have Jackson projected about +4 PPG over Prescott, and Jackson was +6 over Prescott in my league last year and +7 over Mahomes... and Adams over Holliday projected at about +1.25 with +0.8 last year. If with the unusual scoring puts Jackson at +6 or more??? With this much of a spread, I gamble on Jackson. Will agree that we have different philosophies on how we would approach this.
