Keeper(s) Help; WHIR!! (1 Viewer)

[4th&inches]

• 12-team league 
  

Background/ League info:

12-team, keeper rules are the following:

Can keep up to 4 players drafted after round 5 (so 6th round = 1st keeper round)

• Year 1 = 1 round prior to draft round (drafted in round 6 = 5th round pick), if added as FA = last round keeper
  
• Year 2 = 1/2 of previous year keeper round (kept in year 1 for a 6th round pick = 3rd round pick in year 2)
  
• Year 3 = 1st round pick. 
  

Start: QRRWWTFKD

Scoring: .5PPR, 4pts passing TD, 6pt all other TD's

Keepers: (keeper rounds & year in parentheses - listed by keeper round):

• Nick Chubb (1st round, 3rd year)
  
• Calvin Ridley (1st round, 3rd year)
  

we do a draft lotto, so it's possible i can choose the 12th pick

• Austin Ekeler (4th round, 2nd year)
  
• Josh Allen (5th round, 1st year)
  
• Antonio Gibson (5th round, 1st year) - keeping
  
• D’Andre Swift (6th round, 1st year) - keeping
  
• Mark Andrews (7th round, 2nd year)
  
• Jerry Jeudy (9th round,  1st year)
  
• James Robinson (15th round, 1st year)
  
• Antonio Brown (17th round, 1st year)
  

Question:

Who would you keep as your 4 keepers? Won't say where I'm leaning so there's no bias

 

[IHEARTFF]

Probably Swift, Gibson, Chubb, and Ridley. First 2 are basically 100%. 

 

[4th&inches]

Probably Swift, Gibson, Chubb, and Ridley. First 2 are basically 100%. 

Thanks for the post. I'm thinking Swift & Gibson are locks to be 2 of my 4 keepers. 

The last 2 spots are giving me pause though. My thoughts below:

• Nick Chubb (1st rd) - IF I can grab the 12th pick of the draft, then it'd make sense to keep Chubb as my 1st round pick, otherwise I'm not sure the value is there
  
• Calvin Ridley (1st rd) - Probably won't keep; chances are he can be had in the 2nd
  
• Austin Ekeler (4th round, 2nd year) - .5PPR puts him as an early 2nd round value
  
• Josh Allen (5th round, 1st year) - Top QB's (Mahomes, Lamar, etc...) will likely be kept 5th round offers some decent value here 
  
• Mark Andrews (7th round, 2nd year) - "ok" value, but others likely better value
  
• Jerry Jeudy (9th round,  1st year) - should be the WR1 in DEN, but keeper value not great.
  
• James Robinson (15th round, 1st year) - great value...damn Jags drafting Etienne really screws things up though.
  
• Antonio Brown (17th round, 1st year) - great value, WR3 on his own team though
  

 

[Gally]

12-team, keeper rules are the following:

Can keep up to 34 players drafted after round 5 (so 6th round = 1st keeper round)

That's a lot of keepers.  How many rounds do you draft?  hahahah

I am not so sure RIdley will be a second round pick with 48 players being kept.  Either way I would keep Chubb, Gibson, Swift, and Allen.  That gives you a great foundation for the start of your team. 

 

[4th&inches]

That's a lot of keepers.  How many rounds do you draft?  hahahah

I am not so sure RIdley will be a second round pick with 48 players being kept.  Either way I would keep Chubb, Gibson, Swift, and Allen.  That gives you a great foundation for the start of your team. 

Thanks for pointing that out. it's 4 keepers, not 34 

We just ran our Draft Lotto as well & I pulled the #3 "Choice" of draft pick. My thoughts:

• Keep the 4 you mention above, choose the 12th draft spot (Chubb = 1.12 keeper) and then get top WR/TE available at 2.01
  
• Choose pick 1-4 (whichever is left), get 1 of CMC/Cook/Kamara/Henry, & then keep Gibson, Swift, Allen, & then 1 of: Ekeler, Jeudy, Robinson, or maybe even Andrews..
  

knowing the draft pick choice, how would you go about things?

thanks again

 

[Gally]

Thanks for pointing that out. it's 4 keepers, not 34 

We just ran our Draft Lotto as well & I pulled the #3 "Choice" of draft pick. My thoughts:

• Keep the 4 you mention above, choose the 12th draft spot (Chubb = 1.12 keeper) and then get top WR/TE available at 2.01
  
• Choose pick 1-4 (whichever is left), get 1 of CMC/Cook/Kamara/Henry, & then keep Gibson, Swift, Allen, & then 1 of: Ekeler, Jeudy, Robinson, or maybe even Andrews..
  

knowing the draft pick choice, how would you go about things?

thanks again

I am a big believer in Chubb and don't like Ekeler.  Based on that I would go late draft spot and keep Chubb then take BPA at pick 2.01

 

[4th&inches]

I am a big believer in Chubb and don't like Ekeler.  Based on that I would go late draft spot and keep Chubb then take BPA at pick 2.01

Good deal; thanks for the follow-up advice. If you don't mind me asking, why don't you like Ekeler (especially in .5PPR)?

And after this gem on DK from my keeper post last year, I fully believe in your opinion/advice :

https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/788156-last-keeper-question-due-today-whir/?do=findComment&comment=22936683

 

[Gally]

Good deal; thanks for the follow-up advice. If you don't mind me asking, why don't you like Ekeler (especially in .5PPR)?

And after this gem on DK from my keeper post last year, I fully believe in your opinion/advice :

https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/788156-last-keeper-question-due-today-whir/?do=findComment&comment=22936683

It's always nice to see a past call come up correct.  

As far as Ekeler goes I just think he gets dinged too much and his price is at his ceiling.  That doesn't completely apply to your situation but as I said last year......I generally go with the better player and that is Chubb by far.  

 

[4th&inches]

It's always nice to see a past call come up correct.  

As far as Ekeler goes I just think he gets dinged too much and his price is at his ceiling.  That doesn't completely apply to your situation but as I said last year......I generally go with the better player and that is Chubb by far.  

Not only correct, but the DK vs. Chark wasn't even close!!!

And I hear ya on Ekeler; forgot how much he angered me with his injuries and lack of TD's last year. 

On your point of better player(s), you still feel the combo of:

• Chubb + pick 2.01
  

>

• Ekeler/Jeudy/Robinson/Andrews + picks 1.03-4 (Cook/Kamara/Henry) + BPA at 2.10?
  

I only ask as the trio of Cook/Kamara/Henry are arguable better than Chubb, right?

Again, appreciate the feedback & if it's becoming too much "back and forth" no need to reply. 

Thanks again

 

[Gally]

I actually think Chubb is in the realm of Kamara/Henry and gets the downgrade only because of Hunt.  I am a huge Chubb believer and wonder about Kamara with no Brees and if Henry will ever slow down.  If you are assured of getting Cook then I would throw Chubb back and take Cook.  If it's Kamara or Henry then I keep Chubb and go that route.  If you do go early and get Cook I would then keep Ekeler because his cost is now more in line with his floor.  

That all being said, I am also a big fan of James Robinson and with the injury to ETN last night he might be worth the keeper spot and picking early.  It's a gamble because if ETN's injury ends up minor then Robinson gets clipped.  I just think Robinson is really good at what he does and if he is used right he will be useful.  I just don't know if they will use him right.  

 

[4th&inches]

I actually think Chubb is in the realm of Kamara/Henry and gets the downgrade only because of Hunt.  I am a huge Chubb believer and wonder about Kamara with no Brees and if Henry will ever slow down.  If you are assured of getting Cook then I would throw Chubb back and take Cook.  If it's Kamara or Henry then I keep Chubb and go that route.  If you do go early and get Cook I would then keep Ekeler because his cost is now more in line with his floor.  

That all being said, I am also a big fan of James Robinson and with the injury to ETN last night he might be worth the keeper spot and picking early.  It's a gamble because if ETN's injury ends up minor then Robinson gets clipped.  I just think Robinson is really good at what he does and if he is used right he will be useful.  I just don't know if they will use him right.  

Thanks again for the continued input. The ETN injury (hearing lisfranc) definitely bumps Robinson up on my list, but the fact they drafted him to begin with does give me some pause as to how they intend to use Robinson. I too am a Chubb believer and agree with your above assessment...sometimes I fall into the ADP trap. 

As it stands, now, the 1st pick has been claimed (so CMC), I anticipate the next guy chooses pick #2 next. Which leaves me in the above scenario. because of that ETN injury, I'm now leaning toward Keeping:

• Gibson
  
• Swift
  
• J. Allen
  
• Robinson
  

Since the above would occupy my picks in rounds 5,6,7, I could try to trade Chubb to the guy in the 11/12 spot for an additional draft pick(s). Or look to trade Swift/Ekeler/etc... for more picks

Assuming the above is all doable, would you:

• Still keep Chubb over any of the above
  
• choose pick 3-4 and go with the best RB available
  
• choose pick 5-8 and target Kelce/ best WR
  

 

[Gally]

Thanks again for the continued input. The ETN injury (hearing lisfranc) definitely bumps Robinson up on my list, but the fact they drafted him to begin with does give me some pause as to how they intend to use Robinson. I too am a Chubb believer and agree with your above assessment...sometimes I fall into the ADP trap. 

As it stands, now, the 1st pick has been claimed (so CMC), I anticipate the next guy chooses pick #2 next. Which leaves me in the above scenario. because of that ETN injury, I'm now leaning toward Keeping:

• Gibson
  
• Swift
  
• J. Allen
  
• Robinson
  

Since the above would occupy my picks in rounds 5,6,7, I could try to trade Chubb to the guy in the 11/12 spot for an additional draft pick(s). Or look to trade Swift/Ekeler/etc... for more picks

Assuming the above is all doable, would you:

• Still keep Chubb over any of the above
  
• choose pick 3-4 and go with the best RB available
  
• choose pick 5-8 and target Kelce/ best WR
  

The ETN injury  doesn't change much for me at this point and it sounds like you need to make a decision sooner rather than later.  I would hate to keep Robinson then find out ETN has a minor ding and will be good to go for Game 1.  That risk is too much for me at this point.  I hate having risky keepers as it always seems to start my season off badly.

That being said I still hinge it on whether or not I can get Cook with my first pick.  If that is for sure I take that pick and go ahead and decide between Ekeler and Robinson as my 4th keeper.  If I can't get Cook I take last pick and freeze Chubb.  

 

[4th&inches]

The ETN injury  doesn't change much for me at this point and it sounds like you need to make a decision sooner rather than later.  I would hate to keep Robinson then find out ETN has a minor ding and will be good to go for Game 1.  That risk is too much for me at this point.  I hate having risky keepers as it always seems to start my season off badly.

That being said I still hinge it on whether or not I can get Cook with my first pick.  If that is for sure I take that pick and go ahead and decide between Ekeler and Robinson as my 4th keeper.  If I can't get Cook I take last pick and freeze Chubb.  

Awesome; thanks again for the insight.

While I don't need to make my keeper decision immediately; I will need to choose my draft slot as soon as the other guy chooses his. So it is a bit time sensitive as that draft slot will ultimately determine who should be kept.

On a side note, assuming I choose the 12th pick, keep Chubb as my 1st round pick, IF the ETN injury is somewhat serious, would you move Robinson (15th rd) up over Gibson (5th rd) or Swift (6th rd)?

Side note 2; if there's any questions you're mulling over and could use some input on, please hit me up. I'd happily provide any insight I may have as you've helped me out immensely! 

 

[Gally]

Awesome; thanks again for the insight.

While I don't need to make my keeper decision immediately; I will need to choose my draft slot as soon as the other guy chooses his. So it is a bit time sensitive as that draft slot will ultimately determine who should be kept.

On a side note, assuming I choose the 12th pick, keep Chubb as my 1st round pick, IF the ETN injury is somewhat serious, would you move Robinson (15th rd) up over Gibson (5th rd) or Swift (6th rd)?

Side note 2; if there's any questions you're mulling over and could use some input on, please hit me up. I'd happily provide any insight I may have as you've helped me out immensely! 

No, I keep both Swift and Gibson over Robinson.  They are just better.  

If that injury does turn out to be bad I might shop Swift, Gibson & Robinson and see what kind of offers come in.  If you get something worthwhile I would trade one of them to help out elsewhere.  

I will let you know if anything comes up.