Keeper Strategy (Theoretical) (1 Viewer)

[dpatridge]

This is not a "who do i keep" but more of a theory question:

We are allowed to keep 1 player every year and pay a 2 round penalty to keep him. Keeping a player drafted in 7th round last year can be kept this year for a 5th round pick.

Regardless of position, would you keep the best player you can or keep the best value versus ADP?

For example:

Would you spend a 2nd round pick on someone that has 2nd round ADP (Best player)

OR

Spend a 15th round pick on someone that has a 6th round ADP (Best value)

I have a bunch of players that would be worthy of keeping - just not sure how to value them - thanks.

 

[Road Warriors]

This is not a "who do i keep" but more of a theory question:

We are allowed to keep 1 player every year and pay a 2 round penalty to keep him. Keeping a player drafted in 7th round last year can be kept this year for a 5th round pick.

Regardless of position, would you keep the best player you can or keep the best value versus ADP?

For example:

Would you spend a 2nd round pick on someone that has 2nd round ADP (Best player)

OR

Spend a 15th round pick on someone that has a 6th round ADP (Best value)

I have a bunch of players that would be worthy of keeping - just not sure how to value them - thanks.

I play in a similar format, and have for several years.

I tend to go with value over best available, especially if the value pick is a starter quality player. Essentially, if you can have a starter penciled into your round 15 pick, you gain a significant advantage and draft flexibility in the earlier rounds.

I almost never keep a player at his equivalent value, as you can get said player ( or equivalent ) in the draft in the same spot. The only exception is if I value that player as a better than ADP value AND expect that others in my league do, as well.

 

[Arodin]

Don't waste your keeper by keeping a second round talent with your second round pick...keep the pick and draft one.

If you can get a 6th round talent in round 15, that's the sort of move that, if done with the pick, wins championships.

Definitely chase value here, within reason.

 

[tangfoot]

To me it greatly depends on the players and this can't be decided in a theoretical vacuum. There's 6th round guys I would want to have and 2nd round guys that I wouldn't want. And vice versa.

 

[LittlePhatty]

For example:

Would you spend a 2nd round pick on someone that has 2nd round ADP (Best player)

If there is any chance at all that I can draft that player in the same round then I throw them back in the pool. Don't just look at it by round though, early or late drafting position matters a lot too. If you draft late in the second, and the player usually goes early in the second then more consideration is necessary.In general though, go with the better value. If you keep a Round 5 ADP guy in Round 9, then that's like doubling up and getting two picks in Round 5.

 

[heckmanm]

To me it greatly depends on the players and this can't be decided in a theoretical vacuum. There's 6th round guys I would want to have and 2nd round guys that I wouldn't want. And vice versa.

Agree, but if you're considering keeping them, you apparently "wanted" them (at least you did LAST season). Also agree with the "value" approach above. I almost started a very similar thread yesterday, as I'm in a similar league.

That said, I'd consider a smaller "gap" on a better player; e.g., choosing between a 2nd-round ADP guy for a 4th vs a 6th-round ADP guy for a 12th. The 6/12 spread is a bigger "bargain" vs ADP, but getting (effectively) TWO 2nd-round picks for the price of a 4th probably yields more value.

 

[dpatridge]

I pick late 2nd round - my keeper there would be Luck.

Not a big fan of QB's that early but it solves a lot of questioning in the mid rounds as to when to take a QB.

Could keep Sammy Watkins for a 5th. (5.02 ADP)

Best value is L. Murray for the 15th round (4.07 ADP)

If Murray is a bust, no damage done by losing a 15th round pick.

So that is the "best player versus value" I have been juggling with.

 

[tangfoot]

Scoring rules come into play, but I'd lean Murray.

I loathe the idea of keeping QBs if it can be avoided, and this is a perfect example of what I said earlier about the specific players in question matter when I'm making up my mind.

 

[themitch]

I pick late 2nd round - my keeper there would be Luck.

Not a big fan of QB's that early but it solves a lot of questioning in the mid rounds as to when to take a QB.

Could keep Sammy Watkins for a 5th. (5.02 ADP)

Best value is L. Murray for the 15th round (4.07 ADP)

If Murray is a bust, no damage done by losing a 15th round pick.

So that is the "best player versus value" I have been juggling with.

100% go with L. Murray here. He has monster upside for a 15th round pick, and you can get someone serviceable at QB that will be more than adequate. Keeping Luck makes no sense unless it's rounds 4+.