Keeper strategy turned on its ear...PLZ help! (1 Viewer)

[TX Steel]

12 team 0.5 PPR redraft.  Basic scoring with bonuses for long scores, 100 yds rushing/receiving, 300 yds passing.

Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, DST, K

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We get to keep 2 keepers, losing the round in which they were drafted.

I WAS planning on keeping AB for my 1st rounder.  However, I just learned I got the 3rd overall pick.

Now I know LeVeon Bell will be kept, but David Johnson cannot be and he's back in the draft pool.  So worst-case scenario, Johnson & AB are drafted 1-2, and I get my choice of Juilo/ODB.  Is the dropoff small enough that I should NOT keep AB?  Here are my other keeper options:

Crabtree--7th round pick

Winston--14th round pick

So...stick with AB & one of the above?  Or roll the dice with the 3rd pick and keep Crab & Winston?

Thanks, and please leave a link so I can return the favor!

 

[fightingillini]

I personally like Brown by a wide margin over Beckham or Julio.  Much higher floor and just as high of a ceiling and not a headcase or an injury risk.

So I would just keep Brown even though he's at value.  Out of the others, I like Winston with a 14th round pick the best.  Crabtree is generally a 4th-5th round pick, and Winston is more like a 9th rounder.

 

[Gally]

fightingillini did it to me again.......ditto what he said.

 

[Borden]

I roll the dice if Beckham is worst case scenario. He's 24 vs AB who is 29 gives you more years of production so I don't think it's that much of an advantage. And a shot at DJ is worth it. 

 

[travdogg]

Who are your other keeper options? I'd like to think you can do better than Crabtree or Winston as a 2nd keeper. I think its always a good idea to keep Brown.

 

[TX Steel]

Who are your other keeper options? I'd like to think you can do better than Crabtree or Winston as a 2nd keeper. I think its always a good idea to keep Brown.

AJ Green (rd 1)

Brate (rd 15)

Gillislee (rd 15)

Ginn (rd 15)

Had David Johnson but he's gotta go back in the draft pool. Gillislee was tempting but the Pats' RB rotation would have me pulling out my hair. 

 

[travdogg]

AJ Green (rd 1)

Brate (rd 15)

Gillislee (rd 15)

Ginn (rd 15)

Had David Johnson but he's gotta go back in the draft pool. Gillislee was tempting but the Pats' RB rotation would have me pulling out my hair. 

So Brown and Green both cost 1st rounders, am I understanding that right? If so, is it possible to keep both, maybe you have to give a 2nd for one of them since you can't lose 2 1st rounders? All the round 3-13 guys other than Crabtree suck I take it?

Assuming that keeping both Brown and Green isn't an option, I'd keep Brown and Crabtree I guess. Winston doesn't feel keeper worthy regardless of price(I'd have Gillislee ahead of him)

 

[TX Steel]

Yeah I'd have to choose between AB & Green. The other picks between have maxed out their keeper time, aren't worth keeping, or are suspended (Martin). 

I was leaning Crab at first, but there are just so many WRs in those mid rounds. I might even land him again if he comes around to me. QBs get drafted quicker than normal in my league by over half the owners. I'll mock it up a bunch and see what my teams look like with either option.