Keeper strategy (1 Viewer)

[sweetness34]

In a 2-player keeper league, if you know a large majority of the other teams are keeping 2 RB’s, does it make any sense to zig when they zag in this situation? E.G., keep 2 WR’s? I suppose if that’s the equivalent to using your first 2 picks on WR’s in a normal draft, that would likely be foolish. But I guess the thought is, if most guys already have 2 RB’s, wouldn’t they be more likely to choose a WR or QB with their next pick or two? Obviously, if everyone keeps their RB’s, there won’t be a big selection of RB’s to choose from, but considering most of the top guys will be kept anyway, it’s not like one could get a top 6-7 RB anyway. There’s usually a big run on WR’s in the 3rd round of regular drafts and isn’t this essentially starting the draft after the first 24 players are taken? Does this strategy even make sense, or is this thinking flawed?

 

[Zoomanji]

It always better to be like the herd and do what everyone else does.

Not really but if you don't keep RBs you could really end up in a bad spot forced to take anyone available. I wouldn't for example keep A. Green over T. Holt just cause he's a RB. Kind of depends what your options are but its not a bad strategy.

And if everyone else keeps RBs then that's what will be available as they will probably address WR & QB in he 1st 2-3 rounds.

 

[mozzy84]

depends on which running backs and which wide outs you have i would think.

 

[sweetness34]

depends on which running backs and which wide outs you have i would think.

Yeah, I was trying to keep this out of the AC forum. If the WR's are both Top 5-6 and the RB's are in the Top 8-11 range. Actually, in this situation, I think keeping one of each is probably the best (lowest-risk) bet, but it's hard to say.

 

[shredhead]

I think it also depends on what position you draft in. If you have an early pick and can assure yourself of getting one of the top RB's left then I think you can have some success with that strategy. If you draft towards the bottom, then you are taking a lot bigger risk. There are always guys who go RB/RB/RB in non keeper leagues, so don't think a couple of people won't take RB first even if they kept 2 RB's.

I appreciate you trying to keep this out of the AC forum, but without knowing the players you are chosing between, it is really hard to help you. Go with your gut. You have to take some risks to win championships, but you have to be smart about it too.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I like the thinking here. As shredhead said though, there are always guys who go RB/RB/RB. This will be especially true if you keep two WRs and let an RB like Willie Parker back into the pool. If you have a sure thing RB, someone will take him regardless of if they already have 2 RBs.

That said though, most people should look to go WR in at least the first round, with the exception of Manning. Second round could see some QBs as well, but again a lot of WRs.

ETA: I think the best choice here would be to keep 1 RB and 1 WR, as you said. Then go RB at 8 overall and grab a second WR early in the second.

 

[sweetness34]

I think it also depends on what position you draft in. If you have an early pick and can assure yourself of getting one of the top RB's left then I think you can have some success with that strategy. If you draft towards the bottom, then you are taking a lot bigger risk. There are always guys who go RB/RB/RB in non keeper leagues, so don't think a couple of people won't take RB first even if they kept 2 RB's.I appreciate you trying to keep this out of the AC forum, but without knowing the players you are chosing between, it is really hard to help you. Go with your gut. You have to take some risks to win championships, but you have to be smart about it too.

thanks shred.this discussion is quite helpful...I drew the 8th pick. Not what I wanted, but what can you do.also, this league is 50% guppies so you never know what they'll do...P.S. I just got advice to keep both RB's... sheesh.

 

[GregR_2]

Keep in mind what will happen to your entire draft in this kind of decision. If you keep your RBs are you going to be happy enough with their quality that you take a "normal" amount of backups? What if you wait and have to take from the leftovers? Will you get RBBC and guys at risk of losing significant touches that make you spend additional picks on your backup RBs than you would have otherwise?

That can be a significant piece of the value puzzle when you are forced to take a bunch of backup RBs and can't go after value QB/WR/TE that have slid to your pick in any given round.

 

[sweetness34]

Keep in mind what will happen to your entire draft in this kind of decision. If you keep your RBs are you going to be happy enough with their quality that you take a "normal" amount of backups? What if you wait and have to take from the leftovers? Will you get RBBC and guys at risk of losing significant touches that make you spend additional picks on your backup RBs than you would have otherwise? That can be a significant piece of the value puzzle when you are forced to take a bunch of backup RBs and can't go after value QB/WR/TE that have slid to your pick in any given round.

Thanks Greg. This overall draft strategy is the kind of answer I'm looking for - without getting into the specific players involved, etc... thanks.Both my RB's are pretty good, they're not backups - but they're not top 5 either. Everyone is telling me to keep both of them...that probably is the smartest decision. They're in the Top 9-11 range. I'm just trying to flesh-out whether a contrarian approach is worth it or not.

 

[GregR_2]

Keep in mind what will happen to your entire draft in this kind of decision. If you keep your RBs are you going to be happy enough with their quality that you take a "normal" amount of backups? What if you wait and have to take from the leftovers? Will you get RBBC and guys at risk of losing significant touches that make you spend additional picks on your backup RBs than you would have otherwise? That can be a significant piece of the value puzzle when you are forced to take a bunch of backup RBs and can't go after value QB/WR/TE that have slid to your pick in any given round.

Thanks Greg. This overall draft strategy is the kind of answer I'm looking for - without getting into the specific players involved, etc... thanks.Both my RB's are pretty good, they're not backups - but they not top 5 either. Everyone is telling me to keep both of them...that probably is the smartest decision. They're in the Top 9-11 range. I'm just trying to flesh-out whether a contrarian approach is worth it or not.

My suggestion would be that you do a mock draft for your league, assigning who you expect other teams to keep to their teams and either drafting for everyone, or letting Draft Dominator draft for the other teams.Go through once for keeping your RBs and see what choices you are faced with in the later rounds and see how you like your overall team. It would even be good to do it more than once for the RBs to try out different scenarios like taking a QB in the 3rd, waiting until later, etc. Then do the same for keeping the 2 WRs. Then do the same for keeping 1 RB and 1 WR, and see which team you ended up with you like the best.By the way, that's pretty much 50% of the work of preparing well for any draft, in my mind anyway.

 

[sweetness34]

I was planning to do that, but yes, that's a great idea.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm keeping the best players without regard to what the rest of the league does. Overthinking like this will cost you value.

 

[joey]

I'm keeping the best players without regard to what the rest of the league does. Overthinking like this will cost you value.

I too would keep the best players with one caveat...take into account ADP.i.e. is one of your potential keepers more likely to fall to you at your first non-keeper selection?For example (not trying to turn this into an AC post):I have to keep 3 from LJ, Holt, Driver and Ahman Green.I pick 10th.Even though I think Driver has a chance to be top 10 WR this year, I'll probablykeep A Green (assuming his pre-season goes well) since I project many otherowners to keep 2 RBs, so scarcity comes into play. I also project a few WRs ofequal value to Driver (or even Driver himself) will fall to me at the 10th pick.fwiw...

 

[mbuehner]

VBD, VBD, VBD. Without knowing the specifics this is impossible to answer, even in principle. If you can live with picking your first RB with 15 or so off the board, good deal. This might be the year to do it- there might be as many as 30 RBs you can legitimately roll with. The downside of this style of drafting is that it puts you behind the 8 ball for every position because you will probably get into all the runs late. You almost have to be even more daring and wait REAL late to fill in your RBs so you can get a decent QB.

Be careful with the success stories that inevitably pop up when bucking the trend threads go up. Remember you almost exclusively hear from the lottery winners. The guys crapped out tend to keep it to themselves. I generally prefer to take the best value at every pick and figure on outdrafting everyone straight up.

 

[rdstorm]

depends on which running backs and which wide outs you have i would think.

Exactly, you keep the players that have the most value

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Does your league allow trading? If so, you say you have 2 RB's in the 9-11 range. In a 12-teamer, that means at least 1 team has no RB's in the 1-12 range, and possibly more than 1 team. Are they looking for at least 1 RB keeper? You bet they are. Also, you said it's a guppy league, if I'm not mistaken. Why not offer up 1 RB each to 2 different teams for their 1st round pick? You can explain to them they certainly won't get a RB of the caliber you'll be offering them. As guppies, they may not understand that it's not smart to do the trade. If you could pull this off, you will feel comfortable going into the draft with 2 elite WR's and 3 first round picks.

 

[Ned]

I'm keeping the best players without regard to what the rest of the league does. Overthinking like this will cost you value.

I too would keep the best players with one caveat...take into account ADP.i.e. is one of your potential keepers more likely to fall to you at your first non-keeper selection?For example (not trying to turn this into an AC post):I have to keep 3 from LJ, Holt, Driver and Ahman Green.I pick 10th.Even though I think Driver has a chance to be top 10 WR this year, I'll probablykeep A Green (assuming his pre-season goes well) since I project many otherowners to keep 2 RBs, so scarcity comes into play. I also project a few WRs ofequal value to Driver (or even Driver himself) will fall to me at the 10th pick.fwiw...

i think you're making a mistake keeping green over driver unless you start 3rbs...

 

[joey]

I'm keeping the best players without regard to what the rest of the league does. Overthinking like this will cost you value.

I too would keep the best players with one caveat...take into account ADP.i.e. is one of your potential keepers more likely to fall to you at your first non-keeper selection?For example (not trying to turn this into an AC post):I have to keep 3 from LJ, Holt, Driver and Ahman Green.I pick 10th.Even though I think Driver has a chance to be top 10 WR this year, I'll probablykeep A Green (assuming his pre-season goes well) since I project many otherowners to keep 2 RBs, so scarcity comes into play. I also project a few WRs ofequal value to Driver (or even Driver himself) will fall to me at the 10th pick.fwiw...

i think you're making a mistake keeping green over driver unless you start 3rbs...

(we start 2 RB, 3 WR, no TE mandatory)I didn't want to turn it into a AC post but I think it still pertains to the general subject at hand...The available RBs at my 10th pick will probably be: DeAngelo/DeShaun, Lamont Jordan, Fred Taylor, maybe Deuce.The available WRs will probably be: Driver, Walker, Roy Williams, Lee Evans and Andre Johnson.I think there's a MUCH better chance of me getting someone of equal value to Driver at my 1st pick than an RB equal to Green(not in an RBBC, in theory, as I write this).So, while Driver is probably ranked higher in my Overall Rankings compared to Green, in the reality of my keep 3 league,keeping Green makes more sense to me due to the scarcity of other quality RBs available as opposed to available WRs.

 

[sweetness34]

Does your league allow trading? If so, you say you have 2 RB's in the 9-11 range. In a 12-teamer, that means at least 1 team has no RB's in the 1-12 range, and possibly more than 1 team. Are they looking for at least 1 RB keeper? You bet they are. Also, you said it's a guppy league, if I'm not mistaken. Why not offer up 1 RB each to 2 different teams for their 1st round pick? You can explain to them they certainly won't get a RB of the caliber you'll be offering them. As guppies, they may not understand that it's not smart to do the trade. If you could pull this off, you will feel comfortable going into the draft with 2 elite WR's and 3 first round picks.

That's a good idea. Thanks again for the input.Also, I think we've managed to make this topic applicable to many based on the strategy discussion (while avoiding an AC forum slant), so my players in questionare rudi, maroney, holt, wayne, and fitz - in case that clarifies what kinds of value we're talking about.

 

[Liquid Tension]

In a 2-player keeper league, if you know a large majority of the other teams are keeping 2 RB’s, does it make any sense to zig when they zag in this situation? E.G., keep 2 WR’s? I suppose if that’s the equivalent to using your first 2 picks on WR’s in a normal draft, that would likely be foolish. But I guess the thought is, if most guys already have 2 RB’s, wouldn’t they be more likely to choose a WR or QB with their next pick or two? Obviously, if everyone keeps their RB’s, there won’t be a big selection of RB’s to choose from, but considering most of the top guys will be kept anyway, it’s not like one could get a top 6-7 RB anyway. There’s usually a big run on WR’s in the 3rd round of regular drafts and isn’t this essentially starting the draft after the first 24 players are taken? Does this strategy even make sense, or is this thinking flawed?

I think it is entirely dependent on who the players on your team are. if you have Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Chester Taylor and Jamal Lewis then I would keep the receivers, but if you have the same receivers and Gore and S Alexander, I would keep the RB's.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Does your league allow trading? If so, you say you have 2 RB's in the 9-11 range. In a 12-teamer, that means at least 1 team has no RB's in the 1-12 range, and possibly more than 1 team. Are they looking for at least 1 RB keeper? You bet they are. Also, you said it's a guppy league, if I'm not mistaken. Why not offer up 1 RB each to 2 different teams for their 1st round pick? You can explain to them they certainly won't get a RB of the caliber you'll be offering them. As guppies, they may not understand that it's not smart to do the trade. If you could pull this off, you will feel comfortable going into the draft with 2 elite WR's and 3 first round picks.

That's a good idea. Thanks again for the input.Also, I think we've managed to make this topic applicable to many based on the strategy discussion (while avoiding an AC forum slant), so my players in questionare rudi, maroney, holt, wayne, and fitz - in case that clarifies what kinds of value we're talking about.

I think an important question is - what are your starting requirements? Can you start 3 RB's? Starting requirements make a big difference to me.

 

[sweetness34]

starting lineups are 1/2/2/1/1 with a (WR/TE only) flex. So basically, 1/2/3/1K/1DEF. Can't start 3 RB's.

 

[Dancing Bear]

For me it would depend upon your overall scoring system [ppr or not], your defined scoring starters and also where your draft slot is.

It makes little sense to keep 2 WR if you start 3 RB's each week or have a flex spot with PPR or if you are drafting 12 in a 12-team league.

If you are starting 2 RB's, in a non-PPR league and you are drafting 1st, 2nd or 3rd, then I'd be more inclined to keep 2 WR's and pick up a RB with my first slot.

Keep in mind that nearly 1/2 of all Top 10 performers do not repeat in year N+1. That includes QB, RB and WR.

Additionally, you need to look at the overall projected drop off between the Top 5 WR's you would have and the ones you would get in the draft at slot 8 and such and compare the overall performance drop off between your Top 10 RB's you have and the ones you could get at slot 8.

There is a much steeper drop off in RB performance from RB #1 to RB #10, but by the time you are at RB 10 you are only talking about 2 ppg compared with RB 20.

Additionally your Top 5 WR can easily make up the 2 ppg above the other possible WR's you would get by waiting.

So depending upon where you want to take the risk to me you could be on an equal footing either way.

 

[chris1969]

depends on which running backs and which wide outs you have i would think.

Yeah, I was trying to keep this out of the AC forum. If the WR's are both Top 5-6 and the RB's are in the Top 8-11 range. Actually, in this situation, I think keeping one of each is probably the best (lowest-risk) bet, but it's hard to say.

In that situation, keep the 2 RB's, it's a no brainer. Also look to draft 3rd RB in round 1 unless someone else drops enough to entice you.

 

[j3r3m3y]

In our 3 keeper league, depending on who the players are, I would scoop up a third RB if the situation were right.

It prevents you from having one.

The third running back is going to be needed at least twice, probably more.

If the WRs on the board are such that I don't lose that much waiting till the next pick (meaning 8 of similar quality) I take the RB and wait.

Be careful when thinking outside the box, you aren't usually the only one doing so.