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Kelvin Benjamin and the Fantasy Echo Chamber (1 Viewer)

Skoo

Skoo

Footballguy
I'm sure I'm not the only one who didn't read a single article or listen to a podcast where Kelvin Benjamin wasn't trashed back to the stone age this summer. 

  • He's being wildly overdrafted
  • His efficiency was terrible in 2014
  • No way he repeats 2014
  • The Panthers have tons of great options now and will spread the ball out more
  • Devin Funchess will outscore KB this year
Now, obviously it's only game 1 so all those things could hold up I suppose, just a reminder to myself and everyone else that while stats can tell part of the story, the eye-test beats all.

And what I saw last night was a monster of a guy toying with an elite secondary that looked like they were about a foot shorter than him.

Man, if Donte Moncrief doesn't pan out this year....

 
His efficiency was, in fact, terrible in 2014. As it was last night. How many WRs stay on the field who are in the bottom 10% of catch percentage? That coupled with the fact that Carolia beat writers were warning of WR snap counts being spread around more this year than in in the past. Which, again, happened. Benjamin played on a higher than projected ~70% of offensive snaps, which is still low for a WR1.

The analysis is/was spot on so I'm not sure what your issue is.

 
maf005 said:
His efficiency was, in fact, terrible in 2014. As it was last night. How many WRs stay on the field who are in the bottom 10% of catch percentage? That coupled with the fact that Carolia beat writers were warning of WR snap counts being spread around more this year than in in the past. Which, again, happened. Benjamin played on a higher than projected ~70% of offensive snaps, which is still low for a WR1.

The analysis is/was spot on so I'm not sure what your issue is.
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Your analysis was right with regard to efficiency, but you were very wrong for thinking it's predictive.  Volume stats are far stickier year to year, and thus more predictive than efficiency metrics.  It's clear Cam is going to throw him the ball a lot, sometimes we over think it.  I think we did with KBenji.

 
maf005 said:
His efficiency was, in fact, terrible in 2014. As it was last night. How many WRs stay on the field who are in the bottom 10% of catch percentage? That coupled with the fact that Carolia beat writers were warning of WR snap counts being spread around more this year than in in the past. Which, again, happened. Benjamin played on a higher than projected ~70% of offensive snaps, which is still low for a WR1.

The analysis is/was spot on so I'm not sure what your issue is.
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Yes, his efficiency rate was average but points are points. But clinging to what he did as a rookie and ignore the possibility of improving his efficiency rate is short-sighted IMO. He is the best WR option in CAR so he will continue to be heavily targeted regardless. He is being drafted as a WR3. I think he easily out produces his ADP. 

ETA: WR

 
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Also, what's ODB's efficiency? I'd imagine it's decent, but considering the volume he gets, I wouldn't be surprised if it is below "elite", and he's still a FF stud.

 
Given all of the information that was available to us, I still think the logic behind believing his ADP to be inflated was sound. :shrug:  I also think the numerous question marks were not priced into his ADP.

Grigs Allmoon said:
Also, what's ODB's efficiency? I'd imagine it's decent, but considering the volume he gets, I wouldn't be surprised if it is below "elite", and he's still a FF stud.
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OBJ caught 61.5% of his targets which is slightly above league average. Regardless I believe efficiency in a vacuum does a poor job of painting a full picture.

 
Points are points son! Long ago I learned to ignore the "experts". They are average joe's just like you and I that get paid to talk about fantasy. The end of the day they play it safe with their opinions because if they are wrong and go out on a limb people get pissed, they look dumb, they don't get paid to talk about fake football. It's an industry full of groupthink. 

 
Did KBenjamin just finish the #1 WR in the NFL ??

ITS WEEK #! 

I guarantee 3 or 4 WR's will have better stats than Benjamin this week ....  yes KBenjamin had a solid game, better than most expected. Don't crown him the #1 WR yet boys and girls, that knee can buckle week 2 

 
Talk about an echo chamber..sheesh

Also, instead of just ignoring (or saying it doesn't matter, because it IS indicative of WR talent), or pointing out another inefficiency/productivity outlier, the efficiency argument still hasn't been addressed. Maybe explain why his catch % is low. Could it be the types of targets he gets? Or Cam being inaccurate? 

 
Stealthycat said:
Did KBenjamin just finish the #1 WR in the NFL ??

ITS WEEK #! 

I guarantee 3 or 4 WR's will have better stats than Benjamin this week ....  yes KBenjamin had a solid game, better than most expected. Don't crown him the #1 WR yet boys and girls, that knee can buckle week 2 
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Nobody is suggesting he is the #1 WR, it's more than fair to question a very popular belief that KBenji was overrated.  And while it is only Week 1, I think above the fantasy points this week proved that he is still Cam's favorite target when he is on the field.  I passed on him everywhere and was in the camp that thought he wouldn't get the same kind of volume.  I'm ready to call myself wrong on that after only one week.

 
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You know when you sit around and talk fantasy b/s with your friends? Well this board is just an elitist version of that, with so many supposed "experts". It's fine to listen to opposing points of view (unless you're a millennial liberal because that's just offensive to them) to form an overall view of a players perceived value/performance. But you have to learn to trust your own instinct.

While many people in these forums have a lot of knowledge, they also rely too heavily on their history of being able to pinpoint that certain player, go against the grain in the expected performance, and then sniff their own farts like they just cracked the code to all of Fantasy Football reality (good talent rises, and plenty of luck involved) when it pans out.

I've hit and miss on so many players over the years, and what I've learned is that everything's a crap shoot. Evaluate talent, and use your own decision to draft, start and reap the rewards. 

 
maf005 said:
Talk about an Echo Chamber..sheesh

Also, instead of just ignoring (or saying it doesn't matter, because it IS indicative of WR talent), or pointing out another inefficiency/productivity outlier, the efficiency argument still hasn't been addressed. Maybe explain why his catch % is low. Could it be the types of targets he gets? Or Cam being inaccurate?
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KB lead the league with 10 drops in 2014 but it's also known that Cam isn't exactly the most accurate QB in the league. So, it's a bit of both.

 
 I actually thought his draft price as a early to mid 3rd rounder was fair considering his ceiling. The only things that had me off of him were recent comments about his conditioning. I was burned by Eddie Lacy last year, and the idea of drafting someone again who was reportedly out of shape made me nervous. 

Throughout the preseason, the word out of CAR was about how slow and out of shape he was. Then Rivera said he'd possibly be limited to a reduced snap count all season, and my draft was that day.  So on Sat in my last draft of the season, instead of Benjamin, who fell to 5.03 on the news of conditioning, I grabbed Maclin, who fell to 5.03 because of no reason except the people around me didn't want him or had other plans for that round.

I can live with either since it's my WR3 but as a fan I would have liked to have had Benjamin knowing he'd play 52 snaps and was in good shape. . 

But I didn't so there ya go. You never know with coachspeak. I should have learned my lesson at least a dozen times before. \

I don't recall the bullet pointed stuff mentioned much, but his conditioning was repeatedly called into question.

 
The thing about efficiency stats is that they are an objective measure of consistency. This is something I think coaches value, and fantasy football players should value, because the more efficient, the most consistent and therefore easier to count on that player compared to an inefficient one.

The whole Panthers offense is pretty inefficient. Ted Ginn even had higher catch percentage (which was not good) with other QB than Cam. 

An efficient player can do more with less, an inefficient player needs more volume to be as effective.

This didn't really change either. Benjamin had 12 targets 6 receptions 91 yards 1 TD. Which is 50% catch rate 7.6 yards per target is better than his 7 YPT from his rookie season. The rookie season likely does not reflect his career numbers because players improve a lot after their rookie seasons. Because of the injury that was the only data to work with as far as trying to make a projection for him.

As long as Benjamin gets enough targets he will be productive, that is true for all players, even Ted Ginn. 

12 targets per game would be 192 targets over 16 games. Benjamin had 4 games with this many targets or more in his rookie season, with two other games of 11 targets. In fact Benjamin had no fewer than 7 targets in every game he played as a rookie according to the game logs, except for two games that were blow outs for Carolina, so perhaps they resting him a bit with those games in hand. 

While I wouldn't (and didn't prior to the season) expect 192 targets, I certainly can see Benjamin having 150 which is pretty much how many he had as a rookie. 170 targets would be the upside and 130 the downside.

Even if his catch rate remains a coin flip all season, that is still 75 receptions on 150 targets.

 
Biabreakable said:
In fact Benjamin had no fewer than 7 targets in every game he played as a rookie according to the game logs, except for two games that were blow outs
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Efficiency, smifficiency. The stat above and the 11 TDs his rookie season are what should've been focused on. Oh well, hindsight and all that.

 
LawFitz said:
Efficiency, smifficiency. The stat above and the 11 TDs his rookie season are what should've been focused on. Oh well, hindsight and all that.
Click to expand...
I probably care about efficiency more than most.

Cam Newtons play style leads to bigger plays but lower efficiency because of him extending plays, throwing from awkward platforms. It also leads to bigger plays like TDs and higher yards per reception. 

 
Skoo said:
I'm sure I'm not the only one who didn't read a single article or listen to a podcast where Kelvin Benjamin wasn't trashed back to the stone age this summer. 

  • He's being wildly overdrafted
  • His efficiency was terrible in 2014
  • No way he repeats 2014
  • The Panthers have tons of great options now and will spread the ball out more
  • Devin Funchess will outscore KB this year
Now, obviously it's only game 1 so all those things could hold up I suppose, just a reminder to myself and everyone else that while stats can tell part of the story, the eye-test beats all.

And what I saw last night was a monster of a guy toying with an elite secondary that looked like they were about a foot shorter than him.

Man, if Donte Moncrief doesn't pan out this year....




 
Click to expand...
Great post, Skoo. Full disclosure I live in NC and I am a huge Panther fan.  Not only that, but I have two degrees from Florida State University, K. Benjamin's alma matter. As such, I have a "man crush" on Benjamin as I targeted him on all my fantasy teams in 2014 and once again this year.  To me, he is the real deal. I have to laugh at those so called experts and fantasy fans who mock Benjamins' ROOKIE, yes ROOKIE, stats. Was the injury a concern. YES! But I heard that his rehab went well and that is all I need to hear to take another gamble this year. With that said, I am glad to have captured Benjamin past the 5th round in many of my drafts.  To have Benjamin as my WR3, icing on the cake! Go Panthers and Go Benjamin!

 
maf005 said:
His efficiency was, in fact, terrible in 2014. As it was last night. How many WRs stay on the field who are in the bottom 10% of catch percentage? That coupled with the fact that Carolia beat writers were warning of WR snap counts being spread around more this year than in in the past. Which, again, happened. Benjamin played on a higher than projected ~70% of offensive snaps, which is still low for a WR1.

The analysis is/was spot on so I'm not sure what your issue is.
Click to expand...
lol wut?

 
maf005 said:
His efficiency was, in fact, terrible in 2014. As it was last night. How many WRs stay on the field who are in the bottom 10% of catch percentage? That coupled with the fact that Carolia beat writers were warning of WR snap counts being spread around more this year than in in the past. Which, again, happened. Benjamin played on a higher than projected ~70% of offensive snaps, which is still low for a WR1.

The analysis is/was spot on so I'm not sure what your issue is.
Click to expand...
The analysis is what allowed me to pick up K. Benjamin in 3/4 of my leagues, without paying very much. 

If people want to think it was spot on, well, more power to them lol

 
Leonidas said:
The analysis is what allowed me to pick up K. Benjamin in 3/4 of my leagues, without paying very much. 

If people want to think it was spot on, well, more power to them lol
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I think 3rd/4th round value is about right.  That was the problem, it seemed the best case scenario was pretty much baked into his price.  

 
tone1oc said:
I think 3rd/4th round value is about right.  That was the problem, it seemed the best case scenario was pretty much baked into his price.  
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Well, I got him 5.06 in a 12 team standard (2WR, flex). I get the feeling a lot of people got a deal like that

Unrelated: Was feeling great about that + CJ Anderson 3.06, except I went Gronk in the 2nd so IDK

 
NYCGangGreen said:
You know when you sit around and talk fantasy b/s with your friends? Well this board is just an elitist version of that, with so many supposed "experts". It's fine to listen to opposing points of view (unless you're a millennial liberal because that's just offensive to them) to form an overall view of a players perceived value/performance. But you have to learn to trust your own instinct.

While many people in these forums have a lot of knowledge, they also rely too heavily on their history of being able to pinpoint that certain player, go against the grain in the expected performance, and then sniff their own farts like they just cracked the code to all of Fantasy Football reality (good talent rises, and plenty of luck involved) when it pans out.

I've hit and miss on so many players over the years, and what I've learned is that everything's a crap shoot. Evaluate talent, and use your own decision to draft, start and reap the rewards. 
Click to expand...
They was some website last year (Numberfire?) that did a big quantitative analysis where they took a bunch of team's draft results and randomly subbed in a player with a lower ADP. So if the team drafted Rodgers in the third, they picked a new QB from a subset of guys picked after the third. 

And what they found is that the alternate team would have performed, on average, about the same as the original. In other words, no one knows nothing.

(BTW, last summer I started thinking Cam was being undervalued. Then I spent some time in the Cam thread and, based on some of the stuff I read there, somehow talked myself out of it. I ended up drafting Tannehill and Peyton.)  :wall:

 
Stealthycat said:
Don't crown him the #1 WR yet boys and girls
Click to expand...
while we are urging you not to do things no one in here is doing, let me also remind you not to crown him a top 10 RB either, senores y senoras

 
I will always believe that the latching on to Kelvin's efficiency numbers from his rookie yer by the fantasy community at large is largely fueled by the fact that no one liked him coming into the league.  He was a raw, and overaged, and was drafted too high.  Few fantasy writers, and fewer draft writers, were talking him up, and he made the lists of potential busts in the NFL.

During his rookie year, everyone marveled at him, and talked him up.  This kid that couldn't run a route was just posting up, and Cam was throwing alley oops to him.  

After a year away, suddenly the only thing we read about this spring and summer were his efficiency numbers.  It reminds me of people latching onto David Carr's YPA numbers after his rookie year.  Another rook no one like pre-draft, people find a number that looks bad, and fixate.  If you watched the games, the Raiders were clearly protecting Carr with bad weapons and a below average line, and were asking him to game manage, Alex-Smith style.  

I'm not sure why Kelvin's efficiency numbers were so bad.  But if you were trying to think of reasons, you can come up with a lot that don't lay 100% of the blame at his feet.  Cam's spotty accuracy.  The fact that he was their only weapon at WR his rookie year, maybe he was force-fed, even when he was covered.  Maybe Cam was so used to him coming own with the ball, he threw bad passes to Kelvin.  I'm not sure.  

But one stat doesn't tell the entire story.  The rest of the story is that this kid was the #1 weapon for them from the day he got there, in a rookie year when we were told he didn't have a clue how to run routes (the one thing we KNOW they can improve).  He is a monster, too big for any CB in the league to handle physically.  He was better than anyone thought right away, and improvement in the finer aspects of his position, is to be expected, barring any work ethic questions.  

I think that Funchess was presented to everyone as a danger to Benjamin, a guy who by the way wasn't loved coming out of college, and didn't set the world on fire his rookie year.  There's as good a chance that Funchess is not very good as there is that he can turn out to be good.  He had all the opportunity in the world his rookie year, playing for a SB team, and didn't make a sound.

He might never be an Odell Beckham or an Antonio Brown, but if your WR3 scores 10 TDs, who cares?  

 
The 2014 WR class was so good that Benjamin didn't seem quite as good a prospect by comparison to the many other very good WR. I somewhat expected it to take him longer to produce than it did for him as a rookie. He did crack 1000 yards receiving (barely) in his rookie season which is a pretty amazing threshold to reach. Since 1990 only 12 other WR have done that. Nice company to be in.

So the main narrative against him after this was that what Benjamin did was not very efficient and dependent on volume to achieve it.

This is why Funchess or another receiving option is a threat to Benjamin getting that volume, because of a lack of efficiency. If Benjamin were in a situation where he were only getting 6 targets/game for example because of other players getting similarly high targets, then Benjamin's numbers might not reach his rookie season again. The production and lack of efficiency is fragile to a situation where he is not getting high volume.

It is only one game, but the volume was there. Benjamin was targeted more than all of the other WR by a lot. So as long as that continues he should have a very good year.

I was open to the possibility that another receiver could cause Benjamin's targets to be lower, but I didn't really see a player on Carolinas roster that would force that situation. Ted Ginn wasn't going to do it and Funchess was not really any more efficient than Benjamin was in his rookie season either. So I wasn't really buying that he would do that, although there were preseason indications that this might be the case.

Aside from efficiency there are other important things to look at. For example Benjamin having over twice as many targets in his rookie season than Funchess had, in a similarly wide open situation. That really shouldn't have been overlooked. If Funchess was so good as to be a threat to Benjamin's targets, wouldn't he have been targeted a lot more during his rookie season? Similar to the volume that Benjamin got?

Devin Funchess in his rookie season got 12.6% of the Panthers total targets.

Kelvin Benjamin in his rookie season got 26.6% of the Panthers total targets.

 
Cam seems to have a hard on for this guy. It's good for fantasy stats but not good for the Panthers. If Cam continues to feed this guy he will be a fantasy stud but Cam's and the Panthers season will suffer. They may not have had a whole lot besides KB and Olsen in 2014 but they do now and one only needs to look at last year to see what spreading the ball around will do.

 
The only thing I got on this situation is how there was absolutely no good news about Benjamin this offseason. The coaches talked up Funchess from last year until Thursday morning.

I was willing to believe that a reportedly overweight already slow WR was struggling when he comes into camp and looks even slower.

They clearly didn't mind Thursday night tho.

 
Big Boy had a couple of nice plays last night. He will never be a burner but he uses his body well and has above average hands. 1000-8 should be very achievable. 

 
need2know said:
What I like about him in redraft is he's relatively cheap.  Not too hard to get him as a wr3
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Exactly. Not sure it will remain that way. I think he does offer upside up to 1100-10 if things fall right. Not elite by any means but could be a decent value. He has a lot riding on this year....plus some fat shaming motivation hopefully.

 
FF Ninja said:
Isn't his rookie contract up after this year? He's not going to be anyone else's WR1 after he leaves in free agency. And if they bring him back, I doubt they do it as their WR1.

That's wut.
Click to expand...
He was  a first round pick so they should have that 5th year option. I do not know if they picked it up though.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He was  a first round pick so they should have that 5th year option. I do not know if they picked it up though.
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It was picked up.  The Panthers are treating him as a #1.  He was a #1 his rookie year, got hurt year 2, last year was a cluster so I fully expect him to produce as a #1 again.  Not sure what Ninja is talking about.

 
pantherclub said:
It was picked up.  The Panthers are treating him as a #1.  He was a #1 his rookie year, got hurt year 2, last year was a cluster so I fully expect him to produce as a #1 again.  Not sure what Ninja is talking about.
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I'm saying he's a decent NFL starter, but not a true #1. Bad buy in dynasty, good gamble in redraft.

 
pantherclub said:
It was picked up.  The Panthers are treating him as a #1.  He was a #1 his rookie year, got hurt year 2, last year was a cluster so I fully expect him to produce as a #1 again.  Not sure what Ninja is talking about.
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I think they let him walk if he doesn't have a monster year.  He's not a wr1.  He's got great size and good hands.  He should be a major red zone threat.  But his lack of seperation and speed holds him back.  

 
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need2know said:
I think they let him walk if he doesn't have a monster year.  He's not a wr1.  He's got great size and good hands.  He should be a major red zone threat.  But his lack of seperation and speed holds him back.  
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Dude had a great rookie year.  Was having a sensational camp going into his second season and then got hurt.  This will be 2 years removed from getting hurt and that is when typically they get comfortable again.  No damn way they let him walk after this year.  He is still dirt cheap.  You guys have lost your minds.

 
pantherclub said:
Dude had a great rookie year.  Was having a sensational camp going into his second season and then got hurt.  This will be 2 years removed from getting hurt and that is when typically they get comfortable again.  No damn way they let him walk after this year.  He is still dirt cheap.  You guys have lost your minds.
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He had a very productive rookie year, but he wasn't a great receive. 

 
Limited? He is one of those guys where you can just throw it up there and he has a good chance of coming down with it. Despite other possible shortcomings. People hate on the fact that he made so much hay out of garbage time his rookie year. Well those garbage points count.  And a guy like him is the kind of player that is going to get a ton of garbage time points. Count on it. Unless they go 15-1 again.

 
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