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Kendall Wright Price Check (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter 3quinox
- Start date
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
I was offered a 2015 1st for him in a non-PPR the other day, Took it without hesitation.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
You must have missed the non-PPR part of that. Wright is probably a low end WR2 in standard scoring.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
16 team ppr, start 3 wrs. offered the 1.07 for him and was rejected.
loose circuits
Footballguy
on march 30th I gave up a haul to get a proven WR4 for my team. i had Shorts penciled in, but needed a little more depth behind AJ, Dez, and Antonio B
M gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.02;Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.02; Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from M;Year 2015 Round 2 Draft Pick from M;Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from M;Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from A;Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from G
A gave up Wright, Kendall TEN WR; Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.02;Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.04
M gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.02;Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.02; Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from M;Year 2015 Round 2 Draft Pick from M;Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from M;Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from A;Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from G
A gave up Wright, Kendall TEN WR; Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.02;Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.04
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Got him for 1.12 in PPR and he guy drafted Bortles with it.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
As would I -- point I was making was that it's not unreasonable enough to merit comment and would depend on team situation.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
If Kendall Wright is an upgrade over your WR2 spot in a non-PPR league, I would suggest that you do not have a good chance of making the playoffs.
In my opinion Kendall Wright might be the most underrated WR in the league. maybe even most underrated player period. Watkins and Evans are the only rookies from this years class I'd take over him. I expect Wright to be a low end WR1 in PPR leagues and a solid to high end WR2 in non PPR.
Big fan of his
Big fan of his
The question you have to ask yourself is how does he stack up to Hunter? That offense is unlikely to support two WRs being lineup worthy in 12 team start 3 WR leagues. It could be argued that Fitzpatrick was an upgrade over Locker as a passer so that's worth taking into account.
Nobody should be shocked if he regresses to an 80/900/4 guy this year. Reasonable for PPR, but bad for 0PPR. Part of the reason I think 0PPR is harder to play, and thus better.
Nobody should be shocked if he regresses to an 80/900/4 guy this year. Reasonable for PPR, but bad for 0PPR. Part of the reason I think 0PPR is harder to play, and thus better.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Noah Davis
Footballguy
For trades I would target Michael Floyd before Kendall Wright....
Zyphros
Footballguy
Noah Davis
Footballguy
At footballguys yes....at other places not so much. Rotoworld has Wright at WR13 and Floyd at WR15. Value is dependant on the owner...I'm just saying I would at least make a pass at Floyd before settling for Wright.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
2.02, 3.02, 2015 1st, 2015 2nd, and three 2015 3rds for Wright and a pair of 5ths? Am I reading that correctly?
If so, wow.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Wright was a low end WR2 in PPR last year. It's tough to say with the Whiz there but I like the odds he can become something good this season. I think if you could get him for 1.09 to 1.12 you are mitigating risk vs. potential and it's good value.
johnadams
Footballguy
For what I've seen as Wright's price tag, I like his overall value, but I don't expect any marked improvement over last year, though I suspect his TD total will increase. Good WR2 in PPR but with a ceiling similar to 2013 and a complementary player in standard (bye week/injury replacement).
Zyphros
Footballguy
Their respective rankings may be similar at some places like Rotoworld, but what people are willing to pay for each one is a pretty big difference, which makes me believe Rotoworld is the outlier. I may be speaking just as a Floyd owner, but I highly doubt you could find anyone that would prefer Wright to Floyd even in PPR.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I have some skepticism on Wright, many factors which lead me to believe his perceived value is being supported by an abnormally large number of receptions last year that could fall. For starters:
(1) he's not huge and could be limited to a slot WR, (2) Hunter fills more of a true WR1 mold, (3) Fitz has a tendency to heavily target the underneath option, and inflated the receptions of Wright/Delanie Walker, (4) Locker will be the starter instead. Thus a boost to the Hunter/Washington numbers, at the expense of Wright/Walker.
If Wright were on a team like NE or Denver that could make a slot receiver REALLY valuable, not just based on PPR numbers, I would have less hesitation. What if instead of 94 receptions, he has something like 80/800 and still only 3-5 TDs? I just don't see much upside when it comes to YPR or TD numbers, and so if he doesn't get 140+ targets, his value could really sink.
(1) he's not huge and could be limited to a slot WR, (2) Hunter fills more of a true WR1 mold, (3) Fitz has a tendency to heavily target the underneath option, and inflated the receptions of Wright/Delanie Walker, (4) Locker will be the starter instead. Thus a boost to the Hunter/Washington numbers, at the expense of Wright/Walker.
If Wright were on a team like NE or Denver that could make a slot receiver REALLY valuable, not just based on PPR numbers, I would have less hesitation. What if instead of 94 receptions, he has something like 80/800 and still only 3-5 TDs? I just don't see much upside when it comes to YPR or TD numbers, and so if he doesn't get 140+ targets, his value could really sink.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Games w/ Locker
2 11 5.5 0
7 54 7.7 1
6 71 11.8 0
5 56 11.2 0
6 74 12.3 0
His averages on the season were:
5.8 catches
67.4 YPG
.1 TD
w/ Locker
5.2 catches
51 YPG
.2 TD
I don't see a considerable drop in production. He was pretty consitent across the board. He did have his best game with Fitz and his worst game with Locker but as far as PPR goes he was about everything you could ask for in a WR 2/3.
Edit to add: I'm sure there will be some argument about the YPG but if I removed the best/worst game I was pretty sure it would be close to the same and I feel like the performance would have been maintained even with Locker at the helm.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
There's a huge gap in their dynasty ADP value right now. DLF's mocks had Floyd going as the 13th WR and Wright going as the 32nd WR in May. Since January, they've run 30 mocks, and Wright has gone behind Floyd in every single one. One time they were within a pick of each other, but most of the time, it's been a double-digit gap at the bare minimum.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I don't quite follow the breakdown here as you've presented it, but assuming that you're pointing out the disparity isn't huge, I still think his value was tied to Fitz, as Wright had a 20 target, 12 reception, 150 yard game with Fitz. That game accounted for more than 10% of his season totals in targets, yardage, and receptions.
You also have to consider that Hunter may not have taken as many targets away as a raw rookie as he will as a 2nd and 3rd year. Point being, with Locker+Hunter -Fitz, I see Wright trending downward. Sell high.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I guess my argument is that I don't think he would have had any worse numbers with Locker. He may have had a few less yards. All it would have done is push him down to a high end #3 WR which I think is all people are asking for with him. That being said I think a lot of people are selling his potential short because of the presence of Hunter. This is a talented WR in his own right and may be maturing into a solid, underrated investment:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=85042&draftyear=2012&genpos=WR%20%20
compared to
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=85042&draftyear=2012&genpos=WR%20%20
karmarooster
Footballguy
The numbers looks inconsequential on a per game basis, but 0.6 receptions per game and 16 yard per game works out to 10 fewer receptions for ~250 fewer yards, differences that would look more like 84/830 yards and 2 TDs last year. For someone who doesn't look like a big TD receiver at his size, that's huge. That would drop him from about WR20 to WR30.
He also had a pretty bad YPR last year, probably a factor of being force fed the ball from Fitz near the line of scrimmage. That may increase if he gets deeper routes with Locker, but in turn would hurt those reception numbers behind his PPR value.
I think he's over-drafted as a top 20 WR, and despite the mocks pointed out, I think he's usually going in that 20-25 range (not as WR13 like in Rotoworld, but still too high).
I just think that a possession WR who relies on a large volume of targets to squeak-out serviceable PPR numbers, while playing with a shaky QB and an emerging talent opposite him on a run-first team is fairly easily replaceable. And he's not even that young (turns 25 this season).
He also had a pretty bad YPR last year, probably a factor of being force fed the ball from Fitz near the line of scrimmage. That may increase if he gets deeper routes with Locker, but in turn would hurt those reception numbers behind his PPR value.
I think he's over-drafted as a top 20 WR, and despite the mocks pointed out, I think he's usually going in that 20-25 range (not as WR13 like in Rotoworld, but still too high).
I just think that a possession WR who relies on a large volume of targets to squeak-out serviceable PPR numbers, while playing with a shaky QB and an emerging talent opposite him on a run-first team is fairly easily replaceable. And he's not even that young (turns 25 this season).
Noah Davis
Footballguy
I agree - I am not saying they are equivalent value - I'm just saying I'd target Floyd before Wright in a trade. Yeah it would cost more - the question is how much. I don't think Wright will get a team "over the hump" whereas I think Floyd potentially could.....I'd pay the premium for Floyd...not Wright.
