Kevin Jones goes on PUP (1 Viewer)

[shakeybarn]

Tatum Bell owners

I was a pro-Tatum (vs Mike Bell) guy last year.... but there's an opportunity for Kevin Jones to come in at the right time. As I've posted before here... those 5 games areOAK - #11 run D in avg/carry (keep in mind they face LT2 and LJ each 2 times a year)MIN - #1 run D in avg/carry and TDs, and yards/game@PHI - on the lower end of rushing Ds, but it's in PhillyCHI - #6 in yds/game, #2 in TDs, #11 in avg/carry@WAS - hi yards/carry, #4 in TDs given upSo they face the toughest run Ds you can see at home, then face respectable (for the most part) run Ds on the road. Curious how much "set-up-for-success" is there for Tatum? This isn't the Denver o-line that he may be accustomed to.

 

[Jason Wood]

This is interesting...we're definitely a house divided on this one. Dodds and Joe both think Bell is a great value at current ADP and Dodds has been drafting Bell in the 6th and 7th rounds and is giddy about it. I think Bell in the 6th-7th isn't compelling value at all; save for leagues where you might go RB/RB/UTIL and 2 WRs.

That's what makes this fun, Bro. J

I agree...I just always find it fascinating when our crew is such a house divided. No sooner did I pen today's blog post that Dodds tells me he thinks Bell in the 6th is a shark move. We couldn't be more far apart, YET our FPTs projections for him are very close to each other.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Count me as struggling to see how this is in any way good news for Jones. He's going to miss the first 6 weeks of the season. This might be good news for him in 2008 but it's a disaster for 2007 IMO.And I'd put zero stock in the "he's almost fully healthy and they expect him to return at 100%" This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Jones limited by this all season. I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now." I don't think he'll be Marshall Faulk but I think he'll be a huge value in many leagues.J

I don't know Joe, I see him as having the potential to score 3-4 TDs all season long.

Hey Woodrow,Is that because you think Duckett will get them? Or Jones comes back strong?I know you factor this in but one thing I think many folks overlook is that most fantasy "regular seasons" are 14 games long. Jones is going to miss at least 43% of the "regular season". For the 5 games Jones is out, how do you think the rushing TDs will go for the Lions?J

 

[shakeybarn]

Given the schedule those 5 games, then KJ comes back to contribute in a RBBC, with Duckett vulture potential, much less Tatum's career of getting knicked. ....

I think this news coming out before the big draft weekend... ppl will reach too much for Tatum. Curious to see the increase in ADP over the weekend.

 

[Joe Bryant]

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?

That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

Given the schedule those 5 games, then KJ comes back to contribute in a RBBC, with Duckett vulture potential, much less Tatum's career of getting knicked. ....I think this news coming out before the big draft weekend... ppl will reach too much for Tatum. Curious to see the increase in ADP over the weekend.

I'm interested in that too shakey. I think tons of it will depend on how serious the league is. That's a good point.J

 

[menobrown]

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.J

Me neither. Let's put this in perspective. Mcnabb says he is 75% healthy. He'll be playing opening day. Torry Holt says his knee is 70% and he's not going on the PUP and will probably be playing opening day. So it fails to jive that if KJ is anywhere close to 100% he would not be heading to the PUP.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Tatum Bell owners

Short lived. This is great news for Kevin Jones owners. It all but assures that he will be 100% for week 7.

I question that for two reasons. One is while I don't know what kind of shape he's in I know he's not going to be in football shape and that could take several weeks or longer. Secondly, was his injury not like 10 or 11 months ago? If so, I find it hard to believe that after all that time he's not well enough to play but that suddenly in 6 weeks he's 100% percent.

I trust what his Dr. said. He did say that Jones was almost completely healed. The Lions are playing it safe with Jones, as they should.

Finally...the voice of reason.

Way to avoid my question.If KJ owners think this is a good thing, than their homerism is clouding their judgement.

SO what you are saying is that my RB6 possibly coming back healthy in week 8 and posting RB1-2 type numbers every week is a bad thing? What do you expect out of you RB6?

I believe their is a possibility he may never post those numbers again...not that I liked him as a pro. He showed promise at VT but has disappointed me in the NFL.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Tatum Bell owners

Short lived. This is great news for Kevin Jones owners. It all but assures that he will be 100% for week 7.

I question that for two reasons. One is while I don't know what kind of shape he's in I know he's not going to be in football shape and that could take several weeks or longer. Secondly, was his injury not like 10 or 11 months ago? If so, I find it hard to believe that after all that time he's not well enough to play but that suddenly in 6 weeks he's 100% percent.

I trust what his Dr. said. He did say that Jones was almost completely healed. The Lions are playing it safe with Jones, as they should.

Finally...the voice of reason.

Way to avoid my question.If KJ owners think this is a good thing, than their homerism is clouding their judgement.

SO what you are saying is that my RB6 possibly coming back healthy in week 8 and posting RB1-2 type numbers every week is a bad thing? What do you expect out of you RB6?

I believe their is a possibility he may never post those numbers again...not that I liked him as a pro. He showed promise at VT but has disappointed me in the NFL.

Kinda like Benson and his 4.1 ypc.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

This is among the most hotly debated players this year.

My opinion, based on the things I hear and read around here are that KJ is way ahead of his recovery time. He has been cutting and running full speed, but not had contact yet. He can't practice because of being on PUP. Martz said, based on seeing him run and cut, that he thought there was a good chance he was going to play in week 1. The coaches reportedly have lobbied for KJ to be activated, even if he was to miss 2-3 games. The doctors said his foot is very close to 100% healed. The placing him on PUP is the correct call and I don't see any negative to it because he is not in football shape anyways. He would miss 2-3 games no matter what. So they are just being cautious. I don't think there is any reason to think he will not be fully recovered based on everything that has been said and that has happened.

I have not heard one negative thing about his rehab or his prognosis. I believe he will be at or near 100% by the time he can be taken off the PUP list.

As for Bell, he is not a very tough inside runner, and really hasn't done much in the games. He is better in space. i think Martz really wanted KJ back sooner because he is a tough inside runner and that is lacking with Bell, not to mention being a better all around RB. it's hard to know for sure, but I can see the Lions passing all game long and just having a few runs unless Bell can run inside better.

I think the fact that the coaches want him back right now tells me that they don't trust Bell to run the ball consistently, especially inside. If Kj is healthy, I personally don't have any doubts that he will start.

That's just my two cents.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Tatum Bell owners

Short lived. This is great news for Kevin Jones owners. It all but assures that he will be 100% for week 7.

I question that for two reasons. One is while I don't know what kind of shape he's in I know he's not going to be in football shape and that could take several weeks or longer. Secondly, was his injury not like 10 or 11 months ago? If so, I find it hard to believe that after all that time he's not well enough to play but that suddenly in 6 weeks he's 100% percent.

I trust what his Dr. said. He did say that Jones was almost completely healed. The Lions are playing it safe with Jones, as they should.

Finally...the voice of reason.

Way to avoid my question.If KJ owners think this is a good thing, than their homerism is clouding their judgement.

SO what you are saying is that my RB6 possibly coming back healthy in week 8 and posting RB1-2 type numbers every week is a bad thing? What do you expect out of you RB6?

I believe their is a possibility he may never post those numbers again...not that I liked him as a pro. He showed promise at VT but has disappointed me in the NFL.

Kinda like Benson and his 4.1 ypc.

Thats not change this thread. BUt if Benson starts for three seasons and still isn't a great back...then you can compare them.

 

[twistd]

Tatum Bell owners

Short lived. This is great news for Kevin Jones owners. It all but assures that he will be 100% for week 7.

I'd have to say I've been on the Tatum Bell bandwagon before and it tends to be a bumpy ride. It starts out OK, and then takes a decided turn for the worse. I was just on the board making a decision between Fred Taylor, Deshaun Foster, and Tatum Bell. Had I know this I might have taken Tatum Bell. I took Taylor. But my experience with Bell, in the past, has been disappointing.

 

[Joe Bryant]

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.J

Me neither. Let's put this in perspective. Mcnabb says he is 75% healthy. He'll be playing opening day. Torry Holt says his knee is 70% and he's not going on the PUP and will probably be playing opening day. So it fails to jive that if KJ is anywhere close to 100% he would not be heading to the PUP.

Exactly. Of course the coaches want him out there. And a team hardly ever lets out injury information that's bad. It kills their negotiating position if they were to trade. How much more could Kelly Holcomb have gotten in Minnesota if the Vikings had let out that Jackson's knee is bad? (just an example - his knee is ok)I'm not saying Jones' career is over. I'm just saying a guy is pretty far from being ready if he's as important as everyone seems to think he is and they still put him on the shelf for the first month and a half.I just don't see how Jones missing nearly half of the fantasy regular season can be seen as anything other than terrible unless you were thinking he might be done for good. J

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Tatum Bell owners

Short lived. This is great news for Kevin Jones owners. It all but assures that he will be 100% for week 7.

I question that for two reasons. One is while I don't know what kind of shape he's in I know he's not going to be in football shape and that could take several weeks or longer. Secondly, was his injury not like 10 or 11 months ago? If so, I find it hard to believe that after all that time he's not well enough to play but that suddenly in 6 weeks he's 100% percent.

He is close to 100% right now. Why should that comment be a surprise?

How do you know he's close to 100%? I'll answer for you, you don't. Neither do I. We do know one thing and the Lions do not believe he's ready to play right now and I find it difficult to believe 6 weeks is suddenly change him from someone who the Lions don't think is ready to play to 100%.

Kevin Jones-RB- Lions Aug. 30 - 1:18 pm et

Lions RB Kevin Jones will start the season on the PUP list.

The Lions have a bye in Week 6, so Jones has a chance to miss only five games. According to doctors, the foot is almost totally recovered, but the team wants to play it safe. Tatum Bell will have solid RB3 fantasy value until Jones' return, but T.J. Duckett could vulture touchdowns.

Source: MLive.com

 

[kevinallen]

Tatum Bell owners

Short lived. This is great news for Kevin Jones owners. It all but assures that he will be 100% for week 7.

Yes, this is GREAT news for Kevin Jones owners. It amazes me how things can be spun on here sometimes. I'm a Portis owner... Coach Gibbs, please please please hold him out of the first half of the season so I KNOW he will be healthy come week 7! It would be such great news!

Missing 5 weeks of the season (wk 6 is a bye week) does not constitute half the season. Twist it, or lmao all the smilies you want, but as a Kevin Jones owner I really like this news. It give Jones a little more time for his foot to be right.

At best, he will be back by week 7. Not sure about you, but my league has a fantasy regular season of 14 weeks, so hence half of the season. This is only good news for KJ owners if you own TB, too. I fail to see how missing half of the fantasy season is "great" news to anyone that owns him.

 

[JohnnyU]

I just don't see how Jones missing nearly half of the fantasy regular season can be seen as anything other than terrible unless you were thinking he might be done for good. J

When I first read that I almost made a comment that 5 isn't close to half of 16, but then I saw you had "half of the FANTASY regular season". Got me on that one

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Why is it bad to not want KJ from week 7 on, but then people are drafting Bell 2-3 rounds before, when he might be a part timer after 5 games?

Bell is the bigger risk to me.

 

[Joe Bryant]

BTW, thanks for starting this thread, Anthony. Good job getting it out early

J

 

[JohnnyU]

This is only good news for KJ owners if you own TB, too. I fail to see how missing half of the fantasy season is good news to anyone that owns him.

Good for dynasty owners who don't need KJ to be their starter. I fail to see how anyone wouldn't see that as a good thingy.

 

[moondawg]

Don't forget that while a player is on the PUP list they cannot practice with the team. KJ can continue to rehab at the teams facility and take part in meetings etc but not in any work with the team. The team has a three week (weeks 7 - 10) window when he will be able to practice with the team but his final status must be decided by week 10. By then he either is on the active roster or put on IR or cut from the team.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I just don't see how Jones missing nearly half of the fantasy regular season can be seen as anything other than terrible unless you were thinking he might be done for good. J

When I first read that I almost made a comment that 5 isn't close to half of 16, but then I saw you had "half of the FANTASY regular season". Got me on that one

No problem, Johnny. Of course all you Shark Poolers will be playing at least through Week 16 I know... J

 

[Jason Wood]

Count me as struggling to see how this is in any way good news for Jones. He's going to miss the first 6 weeks of the season. This might be good news for him in 2008 but it's a disaster for 2007 IMO.And I'd put zero stock in the "he's almost fully healthy and they expect him to return at 100%" This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Jones limited by this all season. I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now." I don't think he'll be Marshall Faulk but I think he'll be a huge value in many leagues.J

I don't know Joe, I see him as having the potential to score 3-4 TDs all season long.

Hey Woodrow,Is that because you think Duckett will get them? Or Jones comes back strong?I know you factor this in but one thing I think many folks overlook is that most fantasy "regular seasons" are 14 games long. Jones is going to miss at least 43% of the "regular season". For the 5 games Jones is out, how do you think the rushing TDs will go for the Lions?J

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.J

I honestly don't think Jones comes back at full strength in Week Seven. I currently project Jones with 110 rushes on the season, so clearly I'm not sold on his recovery and view him as not draftable in standard-sized leagues.But I think Bell, for his opportunity, is proven himself to be pretty bad in a lot of ways.1) He's AWFUL in short yardage2) He turns the ball over (as a runner and receiver)3) He's not durable (misses games, doesn't play hurt)4) He's not an above average blocker (not that Martz cares about pass protection, LOL)I think the reason people look at Bell and get excited is his yardage production (really the only thing he's done well thus far). Yet, as I talked about in the Travis Henry spotlight, backs that have played for Shanahan have averaged almost a full yard LESS per carry at their other stops...including:# Clinton Portis -- 5.5 YPR as a Bronco, 4.1 YPR as a Redskin# Reuben Droughns -- 4.4 YPR as a Bronco, 3.7 YPR as a Lion/Brown# Olandis Gary -- 4.2 YPR as a Bronco, 3.4 YPR as a LionNow consider that this is a team that ran 304 times last year (worst in the NFL), and threw 597 times (2nd highest in the NFL); and you tell me how Bell is going to get consistent fantasy point production? :(I just don't see it...again, if you are in a league where you start 3 RBs (UTIL, Flex); then I could see Bell being a decent option as your RB3 depending on the matchup. But here's the real rub...Bell's ADP is ALREADY 72nd overall; and that's before this KJ news. I will bet dollars to donuts somebody starts eyeing him up in the 4th and 5th rounds over the next week and that, to me, makes no sense.

 

[1huskerfan]

Count me as struggling to see how this is in any way good news for Jones. He's going to miss the first 6 weeks of the season. This might be good news for him in 2008 but it's a disaster for 2007 IMO.

And I'd put zero stock in the "he's almost fully healthy and they expect him to return at 100%" This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation.

I would not be the least bit surprised to see Jones limited by this all season.

I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now."

I don't think he'll be Marshall Faulk but I think he'll be a huge value in many leagues.

J

I don't know Joe, I see him as having the potential to score 3-4 TDs all season long.

Hey Woodrow,Is that because you think Duckett will get them? Or Jones comes back strong?

I know you factor this in but one thing I think many folks overlook is that most fantasy "regular seasons" are 14 games long. Jones is going to miss at least 43% of the "regular season".

For the 5 games Jones is out, how do you think the rushing TDs will go for the Lions?

J

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?

That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.

J

I honestly don't think Jones comes back at full strength in Week Seven. I currently project Jones with 110 rushes on the season, so clearly I'm not sold on his recovery and view him as not draftable in standard-sized leagues.But I think Bell, for his opportunity, is proven himself to be pretty bad in a lot of ways.

1) He's AWFUL in short yardage

2) He turns the ball over (as a runner and receiver)

3) He's not durable (misses games, doesn't play hurt)

4) He's not an above average blocker (not that Martz cares about pass protection, LOL)

I think the reason people look at Bell and get excited is his yardage production (really the only thing he's done well thus far). Yet, as I talked about in the Travis Henry spotlight, backs that have played for Shanahan have averaged almost a full yard LESS per carry at their other stops...including:

# Clinton Portis -- 5.5 YPR as a Bronco, 4.1 YPR as a Redskin

# Reuben Droughns -- 4.4 YPR as a Bronco, 3.7 YPR as a Lion/Brown

# Olandis Gary -- 4.2 YPR as a Bronco, 3.4 YPR as a Lion

Now consider that this is a team that ran 304 times last year (worst in the NFL), and threw 597 times (2nd highest in the NFL); and you tell me how Bell is going to get consistent fantasy point production?

I just don't see it...again, if you are in a league where you start 3 RBs (UTIL, Flex); then I could see Bell being a decent option as your RB3 depending on the matchup.

But here's the real rub...Bell's ADP is ALREADY 72nd overall; and that's before this KJ news. I will bet dollars to donuts somebody starts eyeing him up in the 4th and 5th rounds over the next week and that, to me, makes no sense.

I think he's horrible value there. I like Green, Foster and Taylor all better than Bell.

 

[TD Ryan]

As for Bell, he is not a very tough inside runner, and really hasn't done much in the games. He is better in space. i think Martz really wanted KJ back sooner because he is a tough inside runner and that is lacking with Bell, not to mention being a better all around RB. it's hard to know for sure, but I can see the Lions passing all game long and just having a few runs unless Bell can run inside better. I think the fact that the coaches want him back right now tells me that they don't trust Bell to run the ball consistently, especially inside. If Kj is healthy, I personally don't have any doubts that he will start. That's just my two cents.

doesn't the thinking that Bell is better in space make him better for a Martz passing offense?So long as Bell really is catching the ball as well as Martz is claiming... Bell should be able to rack up tons of yardage.3 and 4 Wrs sets will be the Bread and Butter for DET anyway, no?I guess I just have it in my head that Bell becomes a poor man's M Faulk here... understandably, Faulk could do everything well (i.e. run between the tackles), but it's all the dump offs, draws, and outside runs that pile up the yardage against defenses that are occupied down field with the passing attack... passing to set up the run if you will.And IF, by some chance, DET is having a lot of success in the first 6 weeks... will they automatically change it up because KJones is back? I don't think so. It's nice to think that you don't lose your starting job because of injury, but it happens all the time.

 

[FBGPoker]

It's always great to hear one of your players is going to miss time recovering from a major injury.

The only better knews for KJ owners would be if they would have put him on IR for the season.

 

[Colin Dowling]

doesn't the thinking that Bell is better in space make him better for a Martz passing offense?

So long as Bell really is catching the ball as well as Martz is claiming... Bell should be able to rack up tons of yardage.

3 and 4 Wrs sets will be the Bread and Butter for DET anyway, no?

I guess I just have it in my head that Bell becomes a poor man's M Faulk here... understandably, Faulk could do everything well (i.e. run between the tackles), but it's all the dump offs, draws, and outside runs that pile up the yardage against defenses that are occupied down field with the passing attack... passing to set up the run if you will.

And IF, by some chance, DET is having a lot of success in the first 6 weeks... will they automatically change it up because KJones is back? I don't think so. It's nice to think that you don't lose your starting job because of injury, but it happens all the time.

I disagree with everything bolded above in your post.

 

[David Dodds]

I would be interested in any RB that has ever started the year on the PUP list and then started the first week he was off of it. I am not saying it hasn't happened, but I don't recall it ever happening.

I am firmly in the Tatum Bell camp this year and have drafted him in all, but one league this year. A lot of that came because I could get him in the 6th-8th rounds and at that level it is all value.

Tatum Bell broke down in Denver because he is a 12-15 carry guy max. But in a Martz offense that's all he will be asked to do. I agree that his skillset is not as good as a 100% healthy Kevin Jones, but IMO we are not going to see that KJ back until 2008. I ssupect that we will have a similar discussion whether KJ is ready to go after these 6 weeks are up. I put it at 50/50 that he isn't ready to go then (either put on IR or held inactive for awhile). And even if he is ready, I think they only push him back into the starting gig if Bell is doing horribly.

And I don't see Bell choking here. With Williams, Johnson and Furrey at WR and a OC that loves to throw the ball every down, defenses are going to play to stop the pass. Add in a horrible defense and a team that will likely playing catch-up and teams will be looking to stop the big play. This means Bell will get draw plays, check-downs, etc (a lot possibly even in garbage time) and we know he is capable of big plays in space. I think this Detroit situation is a perfect fit for his 15-18 touches a game style (10-12 carries and the rest receptions). Duckett will likely vulture some TDs, but frankly with Williams and Johnson as redzone tragets, I suspect Martz will throw a lot in the redzone anyway.

My prediction: Jones starts on the PUP list. I think this is 6 weeks regardless of your bye situation. KJ is re-evaluated during the bye and they again say he is close. I say it's 50/50 whether he goes to IR or is activated. But even if he is activated I suspect he will be a gameday inactive for another 2-3 weeks as he gets into football shape. So now we are in week 9 of the season and I suspect that Detroit will be about 3-5. So the question becomes why risk KJ (especially with a losing record and Bell playing OK). So even though he could go, they hold him out another week. Detroit goes against Denver and they lose again. Now at 3-6, upper management says why risk our best RB? So he goes to IR and is 100% for 2008.

So count me as one who thinks Bell is the play and that Jones owners are going to keep hoping and every piece of news just keeps stalling the decision to get him back on the field. Now in 2008, I think KJ will return to be the #1 back on this team.

 

[LHUCKS]

At what point do we admit that Tatum Bell sucks?

The guy just isn't very good.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 den | 14 | 75 396 5.3 3 | 5 80 16.0 0 || 2005 den | 15 | 173 921 5.3 8 | 18 104 5.8 0 || 2006 den | 13 | 233 1025 4.4 2 | 24 115 4.8 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 42 | 481 2342 4.9 13 | 47 299 6.4 0 |I think people may be extrapolating his lofty Denver YPC...a mistake that has been made over and over again.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Buy low time.

buy low time was a few months ago. this will push up KJ's price significantly.

Hi Michael,How do you think it pushes up his value?J

we have stronger confirmation that, when 6 weeks have passed, KJ is expected to be fully recovered. While the team had suggested that in the past, I certainly wasn't familiar with such a definitive statement from the doctor.anybody who owns KJ MAY have been interested in trading him before, in exchange for a serviceable commodity. now that this news is out, it's almost too late - owners will demand too much now.it's analagous to the stock market.....when a stock has a cloud of uncertainty hovering over it, it can be a "buy low" opportunity. once the uncertainty is removed (or lessened), a lot of that value disappears, because the market immediately prices in the new info. fantasy football player values are similar.just my 2 cents. i still think KJ has upside - especially for an owner who doesn't need him in weeks 1-6.edit to add: I didn't think KJ would play at all in 2007, so to me it's good news that the foot is almost 100% healed.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Count me as struggling to see how this is in any way good news for Jones. He's going to miss the first 6 weeks of the season. This might be good news for him in 2008 but it's a disaster for 2007 IMO.And I'd put zero stock in the "he's almost fully healthy and they expect him to return at 100%" This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Jones limited by this all season. I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now." I don't think he'll be Marshall Faulk but I think he'll be a huge value in many leagues.J

I don't know Joe, I see him as having the potential to score 3-4 TDs all season long.

Hey Woodrow,Is that because you think Duckett will get them? Or Jones comes back strong?I know you factor this in but one thing I think many folks overlook is that most fantasy "regular seasons" are 14 games long. Jones is going to miss at least 43% of the "regular season". For the 5 games Jones is out, how do you think the rushing TDs will go for the Lions?J

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.J

I honestly don't think Jones comes back at full strength in Week Seven. I currently project Jones with 110 rushes on the season, so clearly I'm not sold on his recovery and view him as not draftable in standard-sized leagues.But I think Bell, for his opportunity, is proven himself to be pretty bad in a lot of ways.1) He's AWFUL in short yardage2) He turns the ball over (as a runner and receiver)3) He's not durable (misses games, doesn't play hurt)4) He's not an above average blocker (not that Martz cares about pass protection, LOL)I think the reason people look at Bell and get excited is his yardage production (really the only thing he's done well thus far). Yet, as I talked about in the Travis Henry spotlight, backs that have played for Shanahan have averaged almost a full yard LESS per carry at their other stops...including:# Clinton Portis -- 5.5 YPR as a Bronco, 4.1 YPR as a Redskin# Reuben Droughns -- 4.4 YPR as a Bronco, 3.7 YPR as a Lion/Brown# Olandis Gary -- 4.2 YPR as a Bronco, 3.4 YPR as a LionNow consider that this is a team that ran 304 times last year (worst in the NFL), and threw 597 times (2nd highest in the NFL); and you tell me how Bell is going to get consistent fantasy point production? I just don't see it...again, if you are in a league where you start 3 RBs (UTIL, Flex); then I could see Bell being a decent option as your RB3 depending on the matchup. But here's the real rub...Bell's ADP is ALREADY 72nd overall; and that's before this KJ news. I will bet dollars to donuts somebody starts eyeing him up in the 4th and 5th rounds over the next week and that, to me, makes no sense.

Hi Jason,Just to talk to one part of your point. I hear a lot lately it seems about how this team or that team runs X times. Shouldn't we look at the player? Kevin Jones in that offense last year that everyone thinks is bad for RBs saw 15 rushes and 6.5 pass targets per game. I can see making the argument that Bell isn't Jones. But it looks to me like the DET #1 RB job is pretty good. Don't you think?J

 

[LHUCKS]

Also,

What about the rumors that Martz and other coaches were lobbying for him to NOT go on the PUP...hardly sounds like they were satisfied with the situation.

This is a simple case of a third down back imitating a starting RB...it's not going to work out.

 

[FBGPoker]

Buy low time.

buy low time was a few months ago. this will push up KJ's price significantly.

Hi Michael,How do you think it pushes up his value?J

we have stronger confirmation that, when 6 weeks have passed, KJ is expected to be fully recovered. While the team had suggested that in the past, I certainly wasn't familiar with such a definitive statement from the doctor.anybody who owns KJ MAY have been interested in trading him before, in exchange for a serviceable commodity. now that this news is out, it's almost too late - owners will demand too much now.it's analagous to the stock market.....when a stock has a cloud of uncertainty hovering over it, it can be a "buy low" opportunity. once the uncertainty is removed (or lessened), a lot of that value disappears, because the market immediately prices in the new info. fantasy football player values are similar.just my 2 cents. i still think KJ has upside - especially for an owner who doesn't need him in weeks 1-6.

The uncertainty is removed because the injury didn't heal as fast as expected and he's now guaranteed to miss 5 games? I really don't understand this logic at all.Your saying his value went up in the minds of his owners because he went on the PUP?

 

[TD Ryan]

With Williams, Johnson and Furrey at WR and a OC that loves to throw the ball every down, defenses are going to play to stop the pass. Add in a horrible defense and a team that will likely playing catch-up and teams will be looking to stop the big play. This means Bell will get draw plays, check-downs, etc (a lot possibly even in garbage time) and we know he is capable of big plays in space. I think this Detroit situation is a perfect fit for his 15-18 touches a game style (10-12 carries and the rest receptions).

I agree with everything bolded in your post above.

 

[FBGPoker]

Also, What about the rumors that Martz and other coaches were lobbying for him to NOT go on the PUP...hardly sounds like they were satisfied with a situation.This is a simple case of a third down back imitating a starting RB...it's not going to work out.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Bell is a great RB, but he's all Detroit has between the 20's at this point in time.13-17 touches in an offense that gives the RB room makes Bell a decent play since he has no one to compete with...unless you somehow think Duckett is a feature back.

 

[PRAE]

This is the most press a Lion has gotten in a long time! Too bad its regarding an injured player!! Good stuff though!!

Safe bet: Try drafting them both... I think both backs can put up OK numbers this year.... toss up as to who it will be down the stretch....

 

[Joe Bryant]

Also, What about the rumors that Martz and other coaches were lobbying for him to NOT go on the PUP...hardly sounds like they were satisfied with the situation.This is a simple case of a third down back imitating a starting RB...it's not going to work out.

But think about that.Let's say he's 60%. You have the choice of #1. Tatum Bell plus the hope that Jones is ready by week 3 or 4.Vs.#2. Tatum Bell only with no chance for Jones until Week 7.I think any offensive coach would lobby for #1. Wouldn't you?J

 

[flooredyas]

Given today's news, I moved Kitna a bit higher on my rankings. For me it's not much, but for some (IF they see it the way I do) it may be a decent jump.

 

[kevinallen]

At what point do we admit that Tatum Bell sucks?The guy just isn't very good.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 den |  14 |	75	396	5.3	3 |	 5	 80  16.0	0 || 2005 den |  15 |   173	921	5.3	8 |	18	104   5.8	0 || 2006 den |  13 |   233   1025	4.4	2 |	24	115   4.8	0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  42 |   481   2342	4.9   13 |	47	299   6.4	0 |

I think people may be extrapolating his lofty Denver YPC...a mistake that has been made over and over again.

So what you're saying is that T.Bell is going to struggle in Detroit just as much as Kevin Jones has (having never finished in the Top 20 of RB's). No argument here.

YR TM G RSH YD Y/R TD TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK VBD   2004 DET 15 241 1133 4.7 5 41 28 180 6.4 1 167 21 10  2005 DET 13 186 664 3.6 5 28 20 109 5.5 0 107 31 0  2006 DET 12 181 689 3.8 6 78 61 520 8.5 2 169 23 8

 

[Jason Wood]

Count me as struggling to see how this is in any way good news for Jones. He's going to miss the first 6 weeks of the season. This might be good news for him in 2008 but it's a disaster for 2007 IMO.And I'd put zero stock in the "he's almost fully healthy and they expect him to return at 100%" This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Jones limited by this all season. I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now." I don't think he'll be Marshall Faulk but I think he'll be a huge value in many leagues.J

I don't know Joe, I see him as having the potential to score 3-4 TDs all season long.

Hey Woodrow,Is that because you think Duckett will get them? Or Jones comes back strong?I know you factor this in but one thing I think many folks overlook is that most fantasy "regular seasons" are 14 games long. Jones is going to miss at least 43% of the "regular season". For the 5 games Jones is out, how do you think the rushing TDs will go for the Lions?J

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.J

I honestly don't think Jones comes back at full strength in Week Seven. I currently project Jones with 110 rushes on the season, so clearly I'm not sold on his recovery and view him as not draftable in standard-sized leagues.But I think Bell, for his opportunity, is proven himself to be pretty bad in a lot of ways.1) He's AWFUL in short yardage2) He turns the ball over (as a runner and receiver)3) He's not durable (misses games, doesn't play hurt)4) He's not an above average blocker (not that Martz cares about pass protection, LOL)I think the reason people look at Bell and get excited is his yardage production (really the only thing he's done well thus far). Yet, as I talked about in the Travis Henry spotlight, backs that have played for Shanahan have averaged almost a full yard LESS per carry at their other stops...including:# Clinton Portis -- 5.5 YPR as a Bronco, 4.1 YPR as a Redskin# Reuben Droughns -- 4.4 YPR as a Bronco, 3.7 YPR as a Lion/Brown# Olandis Gary -- 4.2 YPR as a Bronco, 3.4 YPR as a LionNow consider that this is a team that ran 304 times last year (worst in the NFL), and threw 597 times (2nd highest in the NFL); and you tell me how Bell is going to get consistent fantasy point production? I just don't see it...again, if you are in a league where you start 3 RBs (UTIL, Flex); then I could see Bell being a decent option as your RB3 depending on the matchup. But here's the real rub...Bell's ADP is ALREADY 72nd overall; and that's before this KJ news. I will bet dollars to donuts somebody starts eyeing him up in the 4th and 5th rounds over the next week and that, to me, makes no sense.

Hi Jason,Just to talk to one part of your point. I hear a lot lately it seems about how this team or that team runs X times. Shouldn't we look at the player? Kevin Jones in that offense last year that everyone thinks is bad for RBs saw 15 rushes and 6.5 pass targets per game. I can see making the argument that Bell isn't Jones. But it looks to me like the DET #1 RB job is pretty good. Don't you think?J

I dunno Joe...Jones was a VERY pedestrian runner last year, averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Since I don't objectively think Bell is as gifted a runner as Jones (when healthy), I don't see why Bell is being projected for 4.3, 4.4 yards per carry (I made this mistake until recently, too). But unlike Jones, Bell makes big-time mistakes (fumbles, missed blocks). Those things get you yanked.Boiling this down, I think Bell is an inferior back to Jones, and he was only valuable in fantasy circles last year because of all the receptions.Now MAYBE Kitna throws to Bell a ton, which is entirely possible. In which case Bell could have some value. But as a runner? Not seeing it.

 

[LHUCKS]

Boiling this down, I think Bell is an inferior back to Jones, and he was only valuable in fantasy circles last year because of all the receptions.Now MAYBE Kitna throws to Bell a ton, which is entirely possible. In which case Bell could have some value. But as a runner? Not seeing it.

Exactly

 

[AB in DC]

Don't forget that while a player is on the PUP list they cannot practice with the team. KJ can continue to rehab at the teams facility and take part in meetings etc but not in any work with the team. The team has a three week (weeks 7 - 10) window when he will be able to practice with the team but his final status must be decided by week 10. By then he either is on the active roster or put on IR or cut from the team.

All the more reason not to expect KJ to be on the field for week 7. Even if he is physically 100% by then (which is far from a sure thing), you have to expect he'll need several weeks of practice with the team before he'll be ready to play. And then he'll need another couple of weeks of game action before he can be counted on as a starter (unless TBell et al are so atrocious that Detroit can't send them to the bench fast enough). Basically, for KJ at week seven of the regular season, it will be like week one of training camp. And no one is ready for regular game action in week one of training camp.

 

[LHUCKS]

Also, What about the rumors that Martz and other coaches were lobbying for him to NOT go on the PUP...hardly sounds like they were satisfied with a situation.This is a simple case of a third down back imitating a starting RB...it's not going to work out.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Bell is a great RB, but he's all Detroit has between the 20's at this point in time.13-17 touches in an offense that gives the RB room makes Bell a decent play since he has no one to compete with...unless you somehow think Duckett is a feature back.

At best, he'll be 15 carries a game for five weeks...not worth a pick in the first half of drafts. When Jones gets back he'll be close to 100% and he will make Bell an afterthought...Martz and company have stated over and over Jones is the starter when he gets back.

 

[AB in DC]

I dunno Joe...Jones was a VERY pedestrian runner last year, averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Since I don't objectively think Bell is as gifted a runner as Jones (when healthy), I don't see why Bell is being projected for 4.3, 4.4 yards per carry

Don't forget that the Detroit o-line was atrocious last year. It'll be much better this year -- not a good line, mind you, or even an average one, but even mediocre would be a huge improvement compared to 2006.

 

[Jason Wood]

Also, What about the rumors that Martz and other coaches were lobbying for him to NOT go on the PUP...hardly sounds like they were satisfied with a situation.This is a simple case of a third down back imitating a starting RB...it's not going to work out.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Bell is a great RB, but he's all Detroit has between the 20's at this point in time.13-17 touches in an offense that gives the RB room makes Bell a decent play since he has no one to compete with...unless you somehow think Duckett is a feature back.

At best, he'll be 15 carries a game for five weeks...not worth a pick in the first half of drafts. When Jones gets back he'll be close to 100% and he will make Bell an afterthought...Martz and company have stated over and over Jones is the starter when he gets back.

People think of Martz as the guy who brought us Marshall Faulk. Yet Marshall Faulk was already on a HOF trajectory as a Colt and was a proven stud. I put very little faith in coachspeak about how good Bell has been as a receiver. Trung Canidate anyone?

 

[tomarken]

I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now." This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation. J

Hi Joe,I took the liberty of re-ordering a few of your sentences, hope you don't mind. t

 

[AB in DC]

When Jones gets back he'll be close to 100%

Well, that's the rub, isn't it? When will he be "back", and how close to 100% will he be?

 

[falconeyed]

I would be interested in any RB that has ever started the year on the PUP list and then started the first week he was off of it. I am not saying it hasn't happened, but I don't recall it ever happening.I am firmly in the Tatum Bell camp this year and have drafted him in all, but one league this year. A lot of that came because I could get him in the 6th-8th rounds and at that level it is all value.Tatum Bell broke down in Denver because he is a 12-15 carry guy max. But in a Martz offense that's all he will be asked to do. I agree that his skillset is not as good as a 100% healthy Kevin Jones, but IMO we are not going to see that KJ back until 2008. I ssupect that we will have a similar discussion whether KJ is ready to go after these 6 weeks are up. I put it at 50/50 that he isn't ready to go then (either put on IR or held inactive for awhile). And even if he is ready, I think they only push him back into the starting gig if Bell is doing horribly.And I don't see Bell choking here. With Williams, Johnson and Furrey at WR and a OC that loves to throw the ball every down, defenses are going to play to stop the pass. Add in a horrible defense and a team that will likely playing catch-up and teams will be looking to stop the big play. This means Bell will get draw plays, check-downs, etc (a lot possibly even in garbage time) and we know he is capable of big plays in space. I think this Detroit situation is a perfect fit for his 15-18 touches a game style (10-12 carries and the rest receptions). Duckett will likely vulture some TDs, but frankly with Williams and Johnson as redzone tragets, I suspect Martz will throw a lot in the redzone anyway. My prediction: Jones starts on the PUP list. I think this is 6 weeks regardless of your bye situation. KJ is re-evaluated during the bye and they again say he is close. I say it's 50/50 whether he goes to IR or is activated. But even if he is activated I suspect he will be a gameday inactive for another 2-3 weeks as he gets into football shape. So now we are in week 9 of the season and I suspect that Detroit will be about 3-5. So the question becomes why risk KJ (especially with a losing record and Bell playing OK). So even though he could go, they hold him out another week. Detroit goes against Denver and they lose again. Now at 3-6, upper management says why risk our best RB? So he goes to IR and is 100% for 2008.So count me as one who thinks Bell is the play and that Jones owners are going to keep hoping and every piece of news just keeps stalling the decision to get him back on the field. Now in 2008, I think KJ will return to be the #1 back on this team.

:whitecorner:

 

[FBGPoker]

At best, he'll be 15 carries a game for five weeks...not worth a pick in the first half of drafts. When Jones gets back he'll be close to 100% and he will make Bell an afterthought...Martz and company have stated over and over Jones is the starter when he gets back.

i was implying touches, not just carries, but i agree Bell won't ever be a big carry guy. There is no doubt Kevin Jones is FAR superior to Bell when healthy, but i think it's being a big optimistic to assume K.Jones will definitely be 100% in 5-6 weeks, in reality no one knows for sure. Lisfranc injuries are the kiss of death for many of the players who have had them.I would much rather have a player blow an ACL then have a lisfranc injury as there is a lot of history with ACL surgery and recoveries, not so much with lisfranc.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I had a bunch to say but Jason already said it.

Jones = mediocre runner, excellent FF value due to receptions

Bell = crummy runner, not a workhorse, makes mistakes, not a good receiver

Lions = not run heavy in the first place.

 

[1huskerfan]

Count me as struggling to see how this is in any way good news for Jones. He's going to miss the first 6 weeks of the season. This might be good news for him in 2008 but it's a disaster for 2007 IMO.And I'd put zero stock in the "he's almost fully healthy and they expect him to return at 100%" This is standard company line speak most anytime a player is in this situation. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Jones limited by this all season. I'm not especially a Tatum Bell fan but this is a fantastic opportunity for him. And we all know opportunity is half the battle. Martz was raving about him early this month saying "He's the whole package. He's got so much juice to him. He can go. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well. He's playing at such a high level right now." I don't think he'll be Marshall Faulk but I think he'll be a huge value in many leagues.J

I don't know Joe, I see him as having the potential to score 3-4 TDs all season long.

Hey Woodrow,Is that because you think Duckett will get them? Or Jones comes back strong?I know you factor this in but one thing I think many folks overlook is that most fantasy "regular seasons" are 14 games long. Jones is going to miss at least 43% of the "regular season". For the 5 games Jones is out, how do you think the rushing TDs will go for the Lions?J

And to add Jason, are you of the opinion that Jones is 100% for Week 7?That may be some of the divide. I'm not of that opinion.J

I honestly don't think Jones comes back at full strength in Week Seven. I currently project Jones with 110 rushes on the season, so clearly I'm not sold on his recovery and view him as not draftable in standard-sized leagues.But I think Bell, for his opportunity, is proven himself to be pretty bad in a lot of ways.1) He's AWFUL in short yardage2) He turns the ball over (as a runner and receiver)3) He's not durable (misses games, doesn't play hurt)4) He's not an above average blocker (not that Martz cares about pass protection, LOL)I think the reason people look at Bell and get excited is his yardage production (really the only thing he's done well thus far). Yet, as I talked about in the Travis Henry spotlight, backs that have played for Shanahan have averaged almost a full yard LESS per carry at their other stops...including:# Clinton Portis -- 5.5 YPR as a Bronco, 4.1 YPR as a Redskin# Reuben Droughns -- 4.4 YPR as a Bronco, 3.7 YPR as a Lion/Brown# Olandis Gary -- 4.2 YPR as a Bronco, 3.4 YPR as a LionNow consider that this is a team that ran 304 times last year (worst in the NFL), and threw 597 times (2nd highest in the NFL); and you tell me how Bell is going to get consistent fantasy point production? I just don't see it...again, if you are in a league where you start 3 RBs (UTIL, Flex); then I could see Bell being a decent option as your RB3 depending on the matchup. But here's the real rub...Bell's ADP is ALREADY 72nd overall; and that's before this KJ news. I will bet dollars to donuts somebody starts eyeing him up in the 4th and 5th rounds over the next week and that, to me, makes no sense.

Hi Jason,Just to talk to one part of your point. I hear a lot lately it seems about how this team or that team runs X times. Shouldn't we look at the player? Kevin Jones in that offense last year that everyone thinks is bad for RBs saw 15 rushes and 6.5 pass targets per game. I can see making the argument that Bell isn't Jones. But it looks to me like the DET #1 RB job is pretty good. Don't you think?J

I recall Martz running Faulk under 10 times a few games. I was pulling my hair out as a Faulk owner at the time. Whether or not Tinker Bell > KJ is debatable at best. Comparing him to Faulk would make me ask for my subscription money back. Point being, it IS the offense, NOT the player. Martz has always hit the panic button early and abandoned the run when they are behind---even when it's only 7-10 pts in the first half.