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This is from memory, Tomlin had better than your situation at the beginning of the SB and they kicked and it matter.
A significant part of the advantage in going for it deep in opponents' territory is that even if you don't convert, you pin them back inside their own 5. A stop from there gets you excellent field position, plus of course there's always a potential safety in play.
field position equity. Atlanta o line sucks. Jets d line exact opposite. Atlanta red zone offense has been horrific. Same with 3rd or 4th and one.
Without taking the time to look up the stats and do the math(I'm lazy), I'm pretty sure you should go for it, but it's close. If you care to look it up yourself all you need to do is: Get a large enough sample of 4th and 2 from about the 4-5 yard line and see what the success rate is(guessing in the 45ish% range). Determine a % that they score the td on that play(maybe 25%). Get a large enough sample on the td rate of 1st and goal from the 2. Now just do the math I'd estimate you score a td if you go for it 40ish% of the time you get 7pts and 98% of the time you score 3. If you encountered this scenario 10 times you'd score 28 points if you go for it and 29ish if you kick. So based off my rough estimates it's very close. The other factor is the terrible field position you leave your opponent when you fail to convert and the times you end up kicking the field goal after converting the original 4th down. You can also take into account if your offense or defense converts these situations at a higher or lower level than league averages. Most of these coaching decisions are just math problems.
Real stupid to want more points? Isn't that the goal of the game and the center of this discussion(Do your score more points on average kicking it or going for it in this situation)?
Eli's pick 6 was the direct result of field position so you can't make the assumption 7+3
or, math.
Agree 100% - and what the final score ended up being is completely irrelevant to the discussion.
I disagree, early in the game you always put the points on the board. I have seen way to often this season teams not kicking the field goal in the first half and losing by less then 3 points. Later in a game when your down, yes you go for it there but not early in a game.
But in this specific circumstance it was not just "early in the game" - it was right after your opponent just received. So you are getting the ball at the start of the 2nd half. Your opponent is also an 0-5 team playing on the road on a short week. Trestman probably figured, "If we don't make it, it's like the Giants simply starting their drive on the 5 - but if we do make it, we stomp any little bit of hope out instantly."
Best reason I have the SOB should have kicked it! No BS.That FG cost me $$ since I bet on the Bears to cover -7.5....
Well, at least now we know the reason for the outrage has nothing to do with actual football.Best reason I have the SOB should have kicked it! No BS.That FG cost me $$ since I bet on the Bears to cover -7.5....
There's another factor I didn't touch on last night that isn't mentioned often but that contributes to making these sorts of calls correct:
So you'd kick the FG on first and 10 on the opponent's 20?
I always get a kick out of the line of thinking that 3 points in the first quarter GUARANTEES that the rest of the game would have gone EXACTLY the way that it did from there on out, when that is clearly an impossibility.Best reason I have the SOB should have kicked it! No BS.That FG cost me $$ since I bet on the Bears to cover -7.5....
I always get a kick out of fans expecting every kicker to make 100% of kicks less than 50 yards.I always get a kick out of the line of thinking that 3 points in the first quarter GUARANTEES that the rest of the game would have gone EXACTLY the way that it did from there on out, when that is clearly an impossibility.Best reason I have the SOB should have kicked it! No BS.That FG cost me $$ since I bet on the Bears to cover -7.5....
You've got 55 minutes left. You really think a 3 point lead is gonna matter over 55 minutes? If you just look at the expected point value of going for it, given expected success rate, vs the expected value of a FG with its success rate, you'll find going for it is the right decision way more tan you think.
But they didn't make it so it was the wrong call... duh.
I like this calculator, but how exactly do you interpret the results?kardplayer said:
Atlanta coaches are feeling the heat, coaches seem to make the worst calls and forget the basics of the game when the pressure is turned up. But Monday was just plain stupid, and thanks to Mike Smith I lost my game by less than a point. Especially going into halftime, take the points.MAC_32 said:
It had nothing to do with field position.Young 8 said:
Taking the points for the sake of doing so is stupid. Do some of yall not get how math works?
you should coach the Bears.
EP = expected points = what are the expected points in a given scenario (e.g. if you are 98% to make the field goal, then EP = 3 * .98 = 2.94 points and if you are 70% to get the first down and 50% to score a TD following the first down, 25% to score a FG after the first down and 25% to score no points, EP = .7*(.5*7+.25*3+.25*0)+.3*0 = 2.975
