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Kick the friggin field goal (1 Viewer)

IC FBGCav

Footballguy
Since when did coaches become idiots. Atlanta lost two games by not kicking first half field goals, now the Bears have a chance to but points on the board and don't on the first drive. What am I missing? Late 3rd Q and down I get it or half a yard away I get it. When did coaches get dumb?

 
absolutely a dumb call. you take the early lead there and then kick off and then let eli throw another pick.

 
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Explain, please
A significant part of the advantage in going for it deep in opponents' territory is that even if you don't convert, you pin them back inside their own 5. A stop from there gets you excellent field position, plus of course there's always a potential safety in play.

Going for it on the last play of the half (as was the case Monday) negates that part of the advantage. It's basically giving up 3 for a chance at 7, full stop. Unless you're on the six-inch line you take the 3 there.

In contrast, Trestman's decision tonight was 100% the right call.

 
Since when did coaches become idiots. Atlanta lost two games by not kicking first half field goals, now the Bears have a chance to but points on the board and don't on the first drive. What am I missing? Late 3rd Q and down I get it or half a yard away I get it. When did coaches get dumb?
Without taking the time to look up the stats and do the math(I'm lazy), I'm pretty sure you should go for it, but it's close. If you care to look it up yourself all you need to do is: Get a large enough sample of 4th and 2 from about the 4-5 yard line and see what the success rate is(guessing in the 45ish% range). Determine a % that they score the td on that play(maybe 25%). Get a large enough sample on the td rate of 1st and goal from the 2. Now just do the math I'd estimate you score a td if you go for it 40ish% of the time you get 7pts and 98% of the time you score 3. If you encountered this scenario 10 times you'd score 28 points if you go for it and 29ish if you kick. So based off my rough estimates it's very close. The other factor is the terrible field position you leave your opponent when you fail to convert and the times you end up kicking the field goal after converting the original 4th down. You can also take into account if your offense or defense converts these situations at a higher or lower level than league averages. Most of these coaching decisions are just math problems.

Either way I don't see how it's awful either way unless my estimations are way off(certainly possible).

 
I just think when it 0-0 5 minutes in the game, against an overmatched team, take the 3, put the points up.

 
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Explain, please
A significant part of the advantage in going for it deep in opponents' territory is that even if you don't convert, you pin them back inside their own 5. A stop from there gets you excellent field position, plus of course there's always a potential safety in play.

Going for it on the last play of the half (as was the case Monday) negates that part of the advantage. It's basically giving up 3 for a chance at 7, full stop. Unless you're on the six-inch line you take the 3 there.

In contrast, Trestman's decision tonight was 100% the right call.
Agree 100% - and what the final score ended up being is completely irrelevant to the discussion.

 
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Explain, please
A significant part of the advantage in going for it deep in opponents' territory is that even if you don't convert, you pin them back inside their own 5. A stop from there gets you excellent field position, plus of course there's always a potential safety in play.

Going for it on the last play of the half (as was the case Monday) negates that part of the advantage. It's basically giving up 3 for a chance at 7, full stop. Unless you're on the six-inch line you take the 3 there.

In contrast, Trestman's decision tonight was 100% the right call.
I disagree, early in the game you always put the points on the board. I have seen way to often this season teams not kicking the field goal in the first half and losing by less then 3 points. Later in a game when your down, yes you go for it there but not early in a game.

 
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Explain, please
A significant part of the advantage in going for it deep in opponents' territory is that even if you don't convert, you pin them back inside their own 5. A stop from there gets you excellent field position, plus of course there's always a potential safety in play.

Going for it on the last play of the half (as was the case Monday) negates that part of the advantage. It's basically giving up 3 for a chance at 7, full stop. Unless you're on the six-inch line you take the 3 there.

In contrast, Trestman's decision tonight was 100% the right call.
I disagree, early in the game you always put the points on the board. I have seen way to often this season teams not kicking the field goal in the first half and losing by less then 3 points. Later in a game when your down, yes you go for it there but not early in a game.
But in this specific circumstance it was not just "early in the game" - it was right after your opponent just received. So you are getting the ball at the start of the 2nd half. Your opponent is also an 0-5 team playing on the road on a short week. Trestman probably figured, "If we don't make it, it's like the Giants simply starting their drive on the 5 - but if we do make it, we stomp any little bit of hope out instantly."

Now it didn't work out that way - but result <> process. I think the process (and the decision) was good - even if the result was not. The fact that they didn't make it or that the final score was within a TD has no bearing on whether the decision was a good one.

 
IMO 0-0 against an over matched team. Take the 3, best case you get 4 more, worst case, you give them hope and lose 10.

 
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Explain, please
A significant part of the advantage in going for it deep in opponents' territory is that even if you don't convert, you pin them back inside their own 5. A stop from there gets you excellent field position, plus of course there's always a potential safety in play.

Going for it on the last play of the half (as was the case Monday) negates that part of the advantage. It's basically giving up 3 for a chance at 7, full stop. Unless you're on the six-inch line you take the 3 there.

In contrast, Trestman's decision tonight was 100% the right call.
I disagree, early in the game you always put the points on the board. I have seen way to often this season teams not kicking the field goal in the first half and losing by less then 3 points. Later in a game when your down, yes you go for it there but not early in a game.
But in this specific circumstance it was not just "early in the game" - it was right after your opponent just received. So you are getting the ball at the start of the 2nd half. Your opponent is also an 0-5 team playing on the road on a short week. Trestman probably figured, "If we don't make it, it's like the Giants simply starting their drive on the 5 - but if we do make it, we stomp any little bit of hope out instantly."
There's another factor I didn't touch on last night that isn't mentioned often but that contributes to making these sorts of calls correct:

Even in situations where you don't convert, NFL teams tend to be (overly) conservative in their play calling when in the shadow of their own end zone. They pass less often (passing gains more yards per play than running) and almost never try slow-developing big plays for fear of a turnover or safety. This sort of innate conservatism makes a defensive stop after a failed 4th-down significantly more likely in these situations than from elsewhere on the field.

I've seen the data behind this assertion presented elsewhere before - I'll see if I can dig it up.

 
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According to this calculator, often quoted by Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, if you believe you are going to convert the first down more than 49% of the time, you go for it there.

By contrast, on Monday Night, because the Falcons were down 10 at the time, the break even is closer to 33% of the time.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

 
When time runs out, points matter, field-position doesn't. Take the points!
So you'd kick the FG on first and 10 on the opponent's 20?

You win a football game by optimizing your scoring over the entire 60 minutes, not on a single given play.

 
According to this calculator, often quoted by Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, if you believe you are going to convert the first down more than 49% of the time, you go for it there.

By contrast, on Monday Night, because the Falcons were down 10 at the time, the break even is closer to 33% of the time.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php
:goodposting:

This is the math about 4th down: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

Coaches don't go for it enough.

 
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That FG cost me $$ since I bet on the Bears to cover -7.5.... :bag:
Best reason I have the SOB should have kicked it! No BS.
I always get a kick out of the line of thinking that 3 points in the first quarter GUARANTEES that the rest of the game would have gone EXACTLY the way that it did from there on out, when that is clearly an impossibility.
I always get a kick out of fans expecting every kicker to make 100% of kicks less than 50 yards.

I love that term "automatic points" when used as a synonym for "field goal attempt".

 
I just think when it 0-0 5 minutes in the game, against an overmatched team, take the 3, put the points up.
You've got 55 minutes left. You really think a 3 point lead is gonna matter over 55 minutes? If you just look at the expected point value of going for it, given expected success rate, vs the expected value of a FG with its success rate, you'll find going for it is the right decision way more tan you think.

Read some Bill Barnwell stuff.

 
I just think when it 0-0 5 minutes in the game, against an overmatched team, take the 3, put the points up.
You've got 55 minutes left. You really think a 3 point lead is gonna matter over 55 minutes? If you just look at the expected point value of going for it, given expected success rate, vs the expected value of a FG with its success rate, you'll find going for it is the right decision way more tan you think.Read some Bill Barnwell stuff.
But they didn't make it so it was the wrong call... duh.
 
kardplayer said:
According to this calculator, often quoted by Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, if you believe you are going to convert the first down more than 49% of the time, you go for it there.

By contrast, on Monday Night, because the Falcons were down 10 at the time, the break even is closer to 33% of the time.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php
I like this calculator, but how exactly do you interpret the results?

 
MAC_32 said:
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Atlanta coaches are feeling the heat, coaches seem to make the worst calls and forget the basics of the game when the pressure is turned up. But Monday was just plain stupid, and thanks to Mike Smith I lost my game by less than a point. Especially going into halftime, take the points.

 
Young 8 said:
FatUncleJerryBuss said:
One score game, could have been two.........but WTF do I know, I just use common sense.
Eli's pick 6 was the direct result of field position so you can't make the assumption 7+3
It had nothing to do with field position.

The Giants had already gotten 2 first downs on the drive and the pick six happened on a play that started on the NYG 45 yard line.

 
MAC_32 said:
Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.
Atlanta coaches are feeling the heat, coaches seem to make the worst calls and forget the basics of the game when the pressure is turned up. But Monday was just plain stupid, and thanks to Mike Smith I lost my game by less than a point. Especially going into halftime, take the points.
Taking the points for the sake of doing so is stupid. Do some of yall not get how math works?

What sucks is that we finally have coaches starting to make more optimal decisions, but they don't always work out. That doesn't mean it was the wrong decision, it means it didn't work. If they kicked the FG and missed it, this stupid group of people would be saying they should have gone for it...

Process > Outcome

 
Since when did coaches become idiots. Atlanta lost two games by not kicking first half field goals, now the Bears have a chance to but points on the board and don't on the first drive. What am I missing? Late 3rd Q and down I get it or half a yard away I get it. When did coaches get dumb?
you should coach the Bears.
 
CalBear said:
daveR said:
When time runs out, points matter, field-position doesn't. Take the points!
So you'd kick the FG on first and 10 on the opponent's 20?

You win a football game by optimizing your scoring over the entire 60 minutes, not on a single given play.
LOL!

I guess this is where I say, "Always go for it on fourth down -- even when it's goal-to-go on the 20"

 
kardplayer said:
According to this calculator, often quoted by Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, if you believe you are going to convert the first down more than 49% of the time, you go for it there.

By contrast, on Monday Night, because the Falcons were down 10 at the time, the break even is closer to 33% of the time.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php
I like this calculator, but how exactly do you interpret the results?
EP = expected points = what are the expected points in a given scenario (e.g. if you are 98% to make the field goal, then EP = 3 * .98 = 2.94 points and if you are 70% to get the first down and 50% to score a TD following the first down, 25% to score a FG after the first down and 25% to score no points, EP = .7*(.5*7+.25*3+.25*0)+.3*0 = 2.975

WP = win percentage

I have no idea how it's calculated, but it's basically likelihood to win the game

 
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