Know when to hold'em and when to fold'em? (1 Viewer)

[blindcatch]

In dynasty/keeper/salary leagues there reaches a point in time where the best players must be moved to make room for younger talent or an owner risks having retirement/fading talent or age-related injury or issues make decisions for them. It takes a little luck to continue a roll after you land and use talent to win and a little skill to know when to hold and to know when to fold. I haven't seen a thread about this yet so let's start with a situation or two. Of course the goal is to always win immediately while also having the best team for the future in dynasty so...here we go...

1. You have Rodgers this year at a max contract in a multi-keeper league. Let's not bring two QB leagues into the equation. Who would you consider dealing him for this year at a cheaper contract (assume that all other long-standing QB have equal or near equal salary) to replace him or should you wait another year? How long is your list of 3-4 year or less QB's you'd consider and would it be straight up or take more?
2. What about Calvin? Who gives you enough return to deal his statistical advantage in the short term for years of salary relief and potential?
3. Feel free to answer one or both or throw in any others you want to discuss. examples: Brady, Brees, Manning, etc.
4. Any strategy, examples or insight about how you've made deals after winning years and dealt a stud for youth to stay on top would be great adds to the thread too.

 

[Gawain]

The salary stuff makes me think that this is a veiled AC post. Some of the best posters on the site have put their theories on future valuation in the dynasty trade and dynasty rankings threads. It's interesting to see how some guys can ding Crabtree 5% and others 50% and both have pretty damn good reasoning for their lines of thinking. I'd like to see someone come up with a decent formula or valuation of elite VBD over future years against all VBD in future years. 200 VoRP in one year is a heck of a lot more valuable to me than 200 VoRP spread over 10 years.

I don't play contract leagues, but in a straight dynasty there isn't any QB I'd trade Rodgers for straight up and the only WR that would tempt me to move Calvin is Julio.

 

[blindcatch]

The salary stuff makes me think that this is a veiled AC post. Some of the best posters on the site have put their theories on future valuation in the dynasty trade and dynasty rankings threads. It's interesting to see how some guys can ding Crabtree 5% and others 50% and both have pretty damn good reasoning for their lines of thinking. I'd like to see someone come up with a decent formula or valuation of elite VBD over future years against all VBD in future years. 200 VoRP in one year is a heck of a lot more valuable to me than 200 VoRP spread over 10 years.

I don't play contract leagues, but in a straight dynasty there isn't any QB I'd trade Rodgers for straight up and the only WR that would tempt me to move Calvin is Julio.

Agreed that straight up dynasty makes all values equal so it's all on the stats side...makes decisions like this somewhat easier. Throw in salaries to the equation though and there reaches a point like in VBD where you have to decide to hold or fold on talent...just looking to discuss where that tipping point is either on current crop of top guys or in the past for anyone who has been there and done it right.

 

[EBF]

There's no one-size-fits-all answer to your question.

If you can move a player for a younger version of himself and maybe even get some extra value thrown into the pot, that's usually a smart way to go. Sometimes the right replacement never emerges though. If you're going to trade Jimmy Graham for the next Jimmy Graham, you need to actually know who that is. Easier said than done. Elite players are rare by definition.

Even if you identify the right trade target, you still need to find an owner who will make a deal with you. That can be difficult for a variety of reasons. Many owners don't make trades that aren't blatant ripoffs. Others don't make trades period. In general, everyone likes their players more than most. That's why those players ended up on their roster. Find a Blackmon, Patterson, Luck, or Eifert owner who thinks he's sitting on a turd. They don't exist.

Also, age is a big turnoff in dynasty leagues and despite what people might say in their startup rankings, when push comes to shove many owners simply aren't interested in buying 28-29+ year old players. The market for a guy like Andre Johnson or Tom Brady might only be a few teams.

Add it all up, and sometimes your only options are to keep an expiring player or sell him for well below his functional value.

Sometimes I'll swallow the poison pill. Other times I'll grit my teeth and ship a player off for less than he's worth. Team dynamics are a big factor in the decision. I'm more reluctant to move a veteran if I have a likely playoff contender and not enough depth to lose his production and still be competitive. If you're either really stacked or really weak, the exact same offer might flip from a NO to a YES based on your team dynamics. The main value of guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Tom Brady is the immediate value. If your team won't benefit from their immediate production, you might as well punt those players off and take a shot on some volatile prospects with high upside.

 

[Pictus Cat]

I would think contracts would

1. Limit your windows for production

2. Change value based on contract parameters.

Regardless, never forget your goal is to build winning years, not create a never ending bank of almost rans and some days. Pay a little more for players you believe in, but never more than that.

 

[Stealthycat]

Its all highly variable on your current team/roster and how it is all stacked up - Ideally you find the ultra cheap $2 impact players (think RB Morris from last year) and couple them with Calvin and Rodgers .......... and then draft the next Rodgers cheap, roll the real Rodgers next season, and keep the influx of talent and high caliber guys and go to the playoffs every year in the process

its luck, its skill, its talent, its a blind squirrel finding a nut sometimes too

 

[Biabreakable]

The salary stuff makes me think that this is a veiled AC post. Some of the best posters on the site have put their theories on future valuation in the dynasty trade and dynasty rankings threads. It's interesting to see how some guys can ding Crabtree 5% and others 50% and both have pretty damn good reasoning for their lines of thinking. I'd like to see someone come up with a decent formula or valuation of elite VBD over future years against all VBD in future years. 200 VoRP in one year is a heck of a lot more valuable to me than 200 VoRP spread over 10 years.

I don't play contract leagues, but in a straight dynasty there isn't any QB I'd trade Rodgers for straight up and the only WR that would tempt me to move Calvin is Julio.

Agreed that straight up dynasty makes all values equal so it's all on the stats side...makes decisions like this somewhat easier. Throw in salaries to the equation though and there reaches a point like in VBD where you have to decide to hold or fold on talent...just looking to discuss where that tipping point is either on current crop of top guys or in the past for anyone who has been there and done it right.

This came up a month or so ago in another post. I think the thing you need to do is find a equivalency between a fantasy point scored and a player cost in salary/against the salary cap. There are some accountants and others here who could propose a better solution to this question than I can. But I think that is the key to answering your question. In this case I think even a poor method of finding that value, the value of a $=1FP would be better than no idea at all. Because once you do find this then you can apply that the same way you would projected FPs into a combined VBD number. Even if your method for finding that equivalency was bad, it will be equally bad for all players, but at least you are still comparing them all by the same math. It will give you an answer you can work with.

The question is what would be the best way of finding that value?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Personally, I find it more beneficial to know when to walk away, and know when to run. You never count your money when you're sitting at the table, there'll be time enough for counting when the dealings done.

 

[blindcatch]

You are onto something here Biabreakable...I don't know of any site that does this specifically and would be all ears if anyone has leads.

Granted, this sort of formula would be individual to a league's rules and cap amount and point values (since you'd have to do it also off of projections). However, it could likely be somewhat standardized in a given online league management system though. If it could be explored across multiple leagues and include a "multiplier" of some sort along with projected pv for that league format then it could be plugged into a formula with the salary cap number specific to that league then you could do some analysis...much like ADP for the non-salary leagues that could be something like "market rate" for the player in the given league. I can see it generating a whole column of what the player's salary value was in your league in the previous year as well as what their value is based upon a given projection set of data...

It's sort of a spin on the current research out there on replacement value but rather than replacement value, this would be the individual player value in relation to your specific league cap number. I can see where you could plug in a projection and/or your own personal projections by team much like FBG and other sites do and come up with this market value metric. Hmmm...this might be worth digging into with some spreadsheet time.

Thanks for the great discussion...looking forward to any other thoughts even though we went way beyond the initial simplistic questions...