Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Knowshon Moreno Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Hoot&HoLLer]

Moreno should continue to build up on what was a solid if not spectacular rookie season. I think he will make greater gains in 2010 and be a more productive player. He was drafted to be their guy and has delivered. C-buck is older and this is the year Moreno takes firmer hold. Remember he did have a slight knee injury that likely made his rookie campaign less than what would have been preferred.

See Matt Waldman's recent comments on why he is high on Moreno and not worried about his under 4 yds/carry avg. last year.

270 carries / 1150 yds. 40 rec. / 345 yds. 10 total tds.

 

[The Jacket]

Extremely average talent. Like the opportunity in PPR leagues but don't like the upside. I'll go with a steady 250/975/6, and 40/300/1.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Extremely average talent. Like the opportunity in PPR leagues but don't like the upside. I'll go with a steady 250/975/6, and 40/300/1.

He was not thought of as an average talent coming out of the draft. I think his lack of visible "talent" last year had more to do with injury. I'm still a believer in his ability, he'll be a 20+ carry per game guy with little competition, he can catch the ball, he'll probably get most of the goal line carries, and he plays in the craptastic AFC West (as far as run defenses go). Projection:275 carries 1155 yards 4.2 avg 8 TDs38 catches 320 yards 1 TD

 

[frogpond11]

260 carries, 1,040 yards(4 yards per carry average), 8 TDs

35 catches, 295 yards, 1 TD

Total of 1,335 yards with 9 total TDs

 

[ChuckLiddell]

260 carries, 1,040 yards(4 yards per carry average), 8 TDs35 catches, 295 yards, 1 TDTotal of 1,335 yards with 9 total TDs

Clady is hurt, and there is not a single WR on the roster to keep defenses honest. Combine that with the fact that Knowshon looked very normal last year in what appears to be a better situation, and I think that expectations should be lowered.240 carries for 950 yards and 6 TD30 catches for 200 yards and 2 TD1150 total yards with 8 total TD. Decent RB2.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I'm with ChuckLiddle.

Last year Denver was 15th in YPG and 20th in total points.

Then they traded away a difference-maker in Marshall and had a head-scratcher of a draft. Unless McDaniels has some kind of wishin' stone that we don't know about I don't see how this offense improves this year. They could be awful.

265/950/6

30/200/1

 

[jude]

Extremely average talent. Like the opportunity in PPR leagues but don't like the upside. I'll go with a steady 250/975/6, and 40/300/1.

fail. Moreno is one of the most athletically gifted RB's in the league.

 

[SSOG]

Extremely average talent. Like the opportunity in PPR leagues but don't like the upside. I'll go with a steady 250/975/6, and 40/300/1.

fail. Moreno is one of the most athletically gifted RB's in the league.

Ummm... what? What's athletically gifted about him? Was it the fact that he ran a scorching 4.50 at a whopping 217 pounds? Was it that 9'7" broad jump or the 35.5" vertical?For some perspective... Ben Tate ran a 4.34 at 220 pounds, with a 10'4" broad and 40.5" vert. Matt Forte ran a 4.44 at 217 pounds with a 9'10" broad and a 33" vertical. Shonn Greene a 4.62 @ 227 pounds with a 10'1" broad and a 37" vertical. Knowshon Moreno's combine numbers are pretty comparable to what you'd expect from a 2nd or 3rd round RB, not the #12 draft pick. I'd call him a pretty thoroughly average athlete.In case what you're wondering what one of the most athletically gifted RBs in the league DOES look like... Jonathan Stewart ran a 4.46 at a whopping 235 pounds, with a 10'8" broad jump and a 36.5" vertical- superior numbers across the board despite being an inch shorter and 20 pounds heavier.Furthermore, The Jacket called him an average TALENT, not an average ATHLETE. Any time a guy carries the rock for a team that averaged 4.8 yards per carry despite losing 7 RBs for the season, and that guy only puts up 3.8 yards per carry (1.6 ypc less than his backup), then I think a strong case could be made that "average" is a pretty generous description of his talent level.

 

[two_dollars]

1600 total yards, 13 total td's

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Interesting player, if he takes a step forward he'll be close to a RB1. I'm not sure he's got that kind of talent but he seems to be in a good situation. He's on a team where they're trading away their top passing talent and wants to play good defense. He was RB17 last year and I have to believe he'll improve a little.

1100 yards, 8 td's

30 receptions for 200 yards and 3 tds

 

[jude]

Extremely average talent. Like the opportunity in PPR leagues but don't like the upside. I'll go with a steady 250/975/6, and 40/300/1.

fail. Moreno is one of the most athletically gifted RB's in the league.

Ummm... what? What's athletically gifted about him? Was it the fact that he ran a scorching 4.50 at a whopping 217 pounds? Was it that 9'7" broad jump or the 35.5" vertical?For some perspective... Ben Tate ran a 4.34 at 220 pounds, with a 10'4" broad and 40.5" vert. Matt Forte ran a 4.44 at 217 pounds with a 9'10" broad and a 33" vertical. Shonn Greene a 4.62 @ 227 pounds with a 10'1" broad and a 37" vertical. Knowshon Moreno's combine numbers are pretty comparable to what you'd expect from a 2nd or 3rd round RB, not the #12 draft pick. I'd call him a pretty thoroughly average athlete.In case what you're wondering what one of the most athletically gifted RBs in the league DOES look like... Jonathan Stewart ran a 4.46 at a whopping 235 pounds, with a 10'8" broad jump and a 36.5" vertical- superior numbers across the board despite being an inch shorter and 20 pounds heavier.Furthermore, The Jacket called him an average TALENT, not an average ATHLETE. Any time a guy carries the rock for a team that averaged 4.8 yards per carry despite losing 7 RBs for the season, and that guy only puts up 3.8 yards per carry (1.6 ypc less than his backup), then I think a strong case could be made that "average" is a pretty generous description of his talent level.

Did you ever watch Moreno play in college? Or are you telling me he isn't athletically gifted based on some stupid combine numbers and an injury-marred first season? He isn't an average talent or athlete and your comments focusing solely on a few days of skills competition while completing diregarding his entire body of work in college is peculiar to say the least.

 

[JohnnyU]

1600 total yards, 13 total td's

857 yds and 4 tds and 3.7 ypc. Not very powerful and is indecisive. Looks a little thin in the hips to me. He doesn't have the speed to make up for his shortcommings.

 

[Shutout]

I'm on the side fo the fence that says forget Combine numbers. Its absolutely meaningless for this discussion. I have seen guys blow up the combine and I can't even remember their names now to use an example. i guess that tells you how storied their career was..Dangit, what was that LBer's name that Philly drafted?? Anyway, we have also seen guys like Emmitt SMith and Terrell Davis NOT set the world on fire at a combine and do ok.

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

People would be better of to just forget last year existed...You're tearing the man down without cause. I would expect that last year will be the worst FF year you will see from Moreno for years (granted good health). So, looking at his numbers in my league's scoring, I see him as solid #2 with likely borderline #1 production going forward.

I really think people are going to be disappointed for bailing out on Moreno so soon. Jumping out on him so soon is pretty akin to when people were annointing Forte as a top 3 dynasty just a year ago. Sometimes one rookie season does NOT tell the story.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

1600 total yards, 13 total td's

857 yds and 4 tds and 3.7 ypc. Not very powerful and is indecisive. Looks a little thin in the hips to me. He doesn't have the speed to make up for his shortcommings.

-So you predict a worst year than his rookie year when he was hurt and learning the ropes of the NFL?-How has everyone soured so much on Moreno after only 1 year?

-Sure Moreno had a YPC that was less than appealing, but he had 947 rushing yards with 7 td's, 28 receptions for 213 more yards and 2 more TD's. So 1160 total yards with 9 td's as a rookie playing hurt.

-I think so many were burned by Moreno last year and are so down on him that he is a bargain at this stage in dynasty and redraft purposes. He is 22 years old, and although he has a good compliment back in Buckhalter that is all he is: a compliment back.

Moreno is the lead back for a team that will be well balanced running the spread as well as implementing a bit more of a power running game this year as well.....

(Rotoworld) The Broncos intend to use more two-back sets this season, with Spencer Larsen as the lead blocker for Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.

Analysis: This is a part of Denver's new power-blocking scheme, which promotes more of a smash-mouth mentality. Coach Josh McDaniels says the spread offense will still be used often. Moreno will be the lead back no matter the formation.

Moreno is in a great situation and with a very good year which is not a stretch will be in the top 10 dyansty rb's of 2011. I think he is a very good RB to gamble on while others are in awe of other young backs like Best and Spiller who won't put up the type of production Moreno did in his rookie year.

Moreno is very close to being very good in the NFL and due to his situation an excellent fantasy player as well.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm on the side fo the fence that says forget Combine numbers. Its absolutely meaningless for this discussion. I have seen guys blow up the combine and I can't even remember their names now to use an example. i guess that tells you how storied their career was..Dangit, what was that LBer's name that Philly drafted?? Anyway, we have also seen guys like Emmitt SMith and Terrell Davis NOT set the world on fire at a combine and do ok.

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

People would be better of to just forget last year existed...You're tearing the man down without cause. I would expect that last year will be the worst FF year you will see from Moreno for years (granted good health). So, looking at his numbers in my league's scoring, I see him as solid #2 with likely borderline #1 production going forward.

I really think people are going to be disappointed for bailing out on Moreno so soon. Jumping out on him so soon is pretty akin to when people were annointing Forte as a top 3 dynasty just a year ago. Sometimes one rookie season does NOT tell the story.

So, we're supposed to ignore his indecisiveness, lack of burst, and no power?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I'm on the side fo the fence that says forget Combine numbers. Its absolutely meaningless for this discussion. I have seen guys blow up the combine and I can't even remember their names now to use an example. i guess that tells you how storied their career was..Dangit, what was that LBer's name that Philly drafted?? Anyway, we have also seen guys like Emmitt SMith and Terrell Davis NOT set the world on fire at a combine and do ok.

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

People would be better of to just forget last year existed...You're tearing the man down without cause. I would expect that last year will be the worst FF year you will see from Moreno for years (granted good health). So, looking at his numbers in my league's scoring, I see him as solid #2 with likely borderline #1 production going forward.

I really think people are going to be disappointed for bailing out on Moreno so soon. Jumping out on him so soon is pretty akin to when people were annointing Forte as a top 3 dynasty just a year ago. Sometimes one rookie season does NOT tell the story.

So, we're supposed to ignore his indecisiveness, lack of burst, and no power?

Nope, it is something to note, but a rookie who was hurt and learning the game can be noted as one of the issues that he did not look as strong or as fast to the hole.Not every rookie RB jumps into the NFL and has monster years. He is closer to being really good than falling off a cliff though.

 

[Multiple Scores]

250/1000/7 + 40/300/3 = 1300 total yards/10 TDS.

Just traded him for Beanie Wells in a no-ppr, I really like moreno and think he will be good in non ppr and even better in PPR leagues.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

That would all be fine and dandy if a banged up Correll Buckhalter didn't average 5.4ypc in that same offense.

 

[5Rings]

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

That would all be fine and dandy if a banged up Correll Buckhalter didn't average 5.4ypc in that same offense.

I don't think its uncommon for third down backs to pad their YPC running against nickel/dime defenses. After reading this thread, I think Moreno is a huge BUY in dynasty leagues. I'd feel very comfortable with him as my RB1 if I went WR-WR to start a redraft as well.My only worry is what McD is doing to that offense. Losing BM hurts, but at the same time I think Moreno picks up some slack.I'll go with 315-1323-7, 28-224-1.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

That would all be fine and dandy if a banged up Correll Buckhalter didn't average 5.4ypc in that same offense.

I don't think its uncommon for third down backs to pad their YPC running against nickel/dime defenses.

A) Not by THAT much.B) Whatch'oo talkin' bout Willis? Buckhalter was no 3rd down back running against nickel and dime defenses.Buckhalter carried the ball 8 times on 3rd down last year.Moreno carried the ball 22 times on 3rd down last year.Buckhalter had a whopping 2 carries on 3rd down and 5+ last year.Buckhalter had a whopping 4 carries in situations where there was more than 10 yards to gain for the first down last year.ETA: More fun facts for 5rings60% of Buckhalter's rushes last year came on 1st down. He averaged 5.44 ypc on those rushes.49% of Moreno's rushes last year came on 1st down. He averaged 3.6ypc on those rushes.So what's your contention here? That defenses switched to nickel and dime defenses with Buckhalter in the game? Seems it would make more sense for them to switch to those defenses when Moreno was in there, since clearly the running game was much less of a threat when he was lined up back there.

 

[Chest Rockwell]

If you throw out Moreno's last four games his ypc is 4.26. We already know he was playing hurt. Perhaps the length of the NFL season was also a contributing factor. Rookie wall?

And it's not like better players haven't experienced similar statistical outcomes. In 2004 LT2 averaged a paltry 3.9 ypc in 2004 while his primary backup(Jesse Chatman) hit 6.0 and Michael Turner averaged 5.2. as a matter of fact, the team ypc's for the 2004 Chargers and the 2009 Broncos are an identical 4.2. And I'm sure everyone in here is aware of LT2's rookie ypc of 3.6. He seemed to turn out ok.

I'm certainly not saying Moreno is the second coming of Ladainian Tomlinson, but the guy was the 12th pick in the draft for a reason.

 

[chuck'sliddell]

288 carries/1123 yards for 3.9 average/9 TD's

40 receptions/260 yards for 6.5 average/3 TD's

1383 total yards and 12 TD's

I see a little bit of improvement from his rookie season. He was on my roster and watching games he seemed to run a little better overall later in the season. Also, they seem to be more committed to the run adding a FB to their offense.

I think he will still be up against solid running defenses since Orton didn't throw that many deep balls and everything seem to be short. Also w B Marsh gone and no immediate replacement the offense will not be spread. As a Moreno owner, I was very disappointed that he didn't catch the ball more out of the backfield. I didn't expect 100 receptions but more that what he ended with. I believe C Bucks average was better possible since he has been in the league just a little longer than Moreno.

 

[Garts]

I'm giving Moreno this season.

he sucks again, then I will move on.

He will have to battle for every inch this year which may make him a better player long term or sink him.

 

[two_dollars]

(Rotoworld) The Broncos intend to use more two-back sets this season, with Spencer Larsen as the lead blocker for Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.

Analysis: This is a part of Denver's new power-blocking scheme, which promotes more of a smash-mouth mentality. Coach Josh McDaniels says the spread offense will still be used often. Moreno will be the lead back no matter the formation.

Another analysis: They are combining the wishbone with the wildcat with the option, and rolling out a new package. Tebow under center, a fullback, Moreno and Buckhalter. Could be interesting!

 

[SSOG]

Did you ever watch Moreno play in college?

Or are you telling me he isn't athletically gifted based on some stupid combine numbers and an injury-marred first season?

He isn't an average talent or athlete and your comments focusing solely on a few days of skills competition while completing diregarding his entire body of work in college is peculiar to say the least.

Yes, I watched him play a lot in college. I watched him play *A LOT* in college. And this whole "have you ever seen him play?" schtick is getting tired, but if you're going to trot it out, then I'm going to respond with "did you ever watch Moreno play in the NFL?". The dude averaged 3.8 yards per carry and never broke a 20-yarder, routinely getting outplayed by Correll Freaking Buckhalter. He wasn't fast and he wasn't big. He didn't hurtle anyone at the pro level (mostly because his vertical is terribly uninspiring for an NFL-caliber RB). What about Moreno last year makes you think he's anything more than an average athlete at best? Again, he was the second most athletic RB on his own team, behind CORRELL BUCKHALTER.Judging how athletic a player is by what he did in college is silly- it's the NFL. Even the 5th stringers in The League were studs in college. Second off, hurtling a defender doesn't make you athletic, it makes you stupid. Every single RB in The League can hurtle defenders, but they don't because the risk of an injury (or worse, a fumble!) goes through the roof. Third off, combine numbers are the only objective measurement of raw athleticism that exist. You can't go off of on-field performance, because then things like vision, balance, patience, and reaction speed (decidedly non-athletic indicators) come into play.

Athleticism is how fast you are, how much you can lift, how far you can jump, and how much force you can generate. Combine drills measure how fast you are, how much you can lift, how far you can jump, and how much force you can generate. They pretty much just measure athleticism. Now, unless you have some compelling reason why Moreno's combine performance should so dramatically under-represent his "true athleticism" (perhaps he was fighting the flu and he hid it from everyone in the nation except for you), then I have no clue why we should ignore them. He knew that those combine numbers would in large part determine his fate and his future. He was highly motivated to do the best he could possibly do... and the best he could possibly do was just average.

Does being an average athlete doom you at the NFL level? No. Plenty of average athletes have been NFL studs. I'm not trying to say that we should write off Moreno because of his combine drills. I'm just saying, let's call a spade a spade. You called Moreno one of the most ATHLETICALLY gifted RBs in the league. He's not. He's not anywhere CLOSE.

 

[5Rings]

I really think people are trying to fit an apple and oranges comparison on this one and its a bit unfair to Moreno. He is compared to established Shanahan teams that had a refined running game for years. And then a rookie RB in a new system (to him and to the team with the new coach) comes in, has a slight injury, and plays for a new coach who was clearly developing things on the fly last year. If you watched those games last year and didn't simply pull the stats up, you saw, the Broncos were running some crazy plays last year, fell into some weird situaitons, etc. Its not Moreno's fault that he runs well for a quarter and then the coach inexplicably refuses to do anything except run at the strength of the Raiders for the next 18 straight plays.

That would all be fine and dandy if a banged up Correll Buckhalter didn't average 5.4ypc in that same offense.

I don't think its uncommon for third down backs to pad their YPC running against nickel/dime defenses.

A) Not by THAT much.B) Whatch'oo talkin' bout Willis? Buckhalter was no 3rd down back running against nickel and dime defenses.Buckhalter carried the ball 8 times on 3rd down last year.Moreno carried the ball 22 times on 3rd down last year.Buckhalter had a whopping 2 carries on 3rd down and 5+ last year.Buckhalter had a whopping 4 carries in situations where there was more than 10 yards to gain for the first down last year.ETA: More fun facts for 5rings60% of Buckhalter's rushes last year came on 1st down. He averaged 5.44 ypc on those rushes.49% of Moreno's rushes last year came on 1st down. He averaged 3.6ypc on those rushes.So what's your contention here? That defenses switched to nickel and dime defenses with Buckhalter in the game? Seems it would make more sense for them to switch to those defenses when Moreno was in there, since clearly the running game was much less of a threat when he was lined up back there.

Good info. I'm corrected. ...even though it would be more accurate to provide stats that were pertinent, ie what D the opposing team was running...s

 

[brownhelmets]

The main concern for me is the lack of play makers on the offense. I would feel decent if I had him as a RB2. If I decided to draft a WR first, I may go with a back with more upside as a RB1.

Marshall's absence wil hurt the worst unless the underwhelming group of WRs show up.

 

[jbz]

He also seemed to fumble a lot (from what I recall, not looking up actual fumble numbers). Was fumbling as issue at Georgia for him?

 

[jude]

Did you ever watch Moreno play in college?

Or are you telling me he isn't athletically gifted based on some stupid combine numbers and an injury-marred first season?

He isn't an average talent or athlete and your comments focusing solely on a few days of skills competition while completing diregarding his entire body of work in college is peculiar to say the least.

Yes, I watched him play a lot in college. I watched him play *A LOT* in college. And this whole "have you ever seen him play?" schtick is getting tired, but if you're going to trot it out, then I'm going to respond with "did you ever watch Moreno play in the NFL?". The dude averaged 3.8 yards per carry and never broke a 20-yarder, routinely getting outplayed by Correll Freaking Buckhalter. He wasn't fast and he wasn't big. He didn't hurtle anyone at the pro level (mostly because his vertical is terribly uninspiring for an NFL-caliber RB). What about Moreno last year makes you think he's anything more than an average athlete at best? Again, he was the second most athletic RB on his own team, behind CORRELL BUCKHALTER.Judging how athletic a player is by what he did in college is silly- it's the NFL. Even the 5th stringers in The League were studs in college. Second off, hurtling a defender doesn't make you athletic, it makes you stupid. Every single RB in The League can hurtle defenders, but they don't because the risk of an injury (or worse, a fumble!) goes through the roof. Third off, combine numbers are the only objective measurement of raw athleticism that exist. You can't go off of on-field performance, because then things like vision, balance, patience, and reaction speed (decidedly non-athletic indicators) come into play.

Athleticism is how fast you are, how much you can lift, how far you can jump, and how much force you can generate. Combine drills measure how fast you are, how much you can lift, how far you can jump, and how much force you can generate. They pretty much just measure athleticism. Now, unless you have some compelling reason why Moreno's combine performance should so dramatically under-represent his "true athleticism" (perhaps he was fighting the flu and he hid it from everyone in the nation except for you), then I have no clue why we should ignore them. He knew that those combine numbers would in large part determine his fate and his future. He was highly motivated to do the best he could possibly do... and the best he could possibly do was just average.

Does being an average athlete doom you at the NFL level? No. Plenty of average athletes have been NFL studs. I'm not trying to say that we should write off Moreno because of his combine drills. I'm just saying, let's call a spade a spade. You called Moreno one of the most ATHLETICALLY gifted RBs in the league. He's not. He's not anywhere CLOSE.

Wait so he isn't athletically gifted now because he didn't show it in a couple games as a pro HURT and on a bad team? And what he did in college was silly? I wonder how he became a 1st rounder. SSOG, let me tell you something. The combine is an ABSOLUTE JOKE. It is one day. I think most NFL teams would agree with me too. This is why they have Pro Day as well. And this is why they bring them in multiple times to do the same things over and over again. As for his 40 combine number, it was on a slow track. Almost everyone ran slower that day. Go look at the numbers.

You are taking his measurables and telling me he isn't one of the most athletically gifted RB's in the NFL and I am going off of what I saw on the field outside of his rookie year (hurt, late for camp, roo wall, etc). One of Moreno's biggest assets is his elite agility and this isn't measured at the combine. You are putting far too much emphasis on triangle numbers instead relying on game play.

Also, i love how you hedge your bets saying lots of average athletes are studs in the NFL. That's clever.

Please type YES or NO after each of the following: We can black dot it for later.

I think Buckhalter is better than Moreno

Moreno's BEST is average (in the nfl)

also, one last thing, remeber Vernon Gholston. hee was widely considered the best defenser in his draft class based on the combine. how'd that work out?

 

[SSOG]

Wait so he isn't athletically gifted now because he didn't show it in a couple games as a pro HURT and on a bad team? And what he did in college was silly? I wonder how he became a 1st rounder.

SSOG, let me tell you something. The combine is an ABSOLUTE JOKE. It is one day. I think most NFL teams would agree with me too. This is why they have Pro Day as well. And this is why they bring them in multiple times to do the same things over and over again. As for his 40 combine number, it was on a slow track. Almost everyone ran slower that day. Go look at the numbers.

Oh, I stand totally corrected. You're absolutely right, the combine track was running slow that day, and it's silly to just base off of a single day's measurements. As you said, that's why they have pro days! We should absolutely include Knowshon Moreno's pro day results when discussing how athletic he is.At his pro day, Knowshon Moreno ran... 4.60 and 4.63. A tenth of a second SLOWER than at the combine. In fact, those times made him the slowest RB drafted in the first round since 2000. So thanks for correcting me on this, it seems I was being unfairly kind to Knowshon Moreno when I was calling him an average athlete. If we follow your advice and look at his pro day, we realize that he's actually a below average athlete for an NFL RB.

You are taking his measurables and telling me he isn't one of the most athletically gifted RB's in the NFL and I am going off of what I saw on the field outside of his rookie year (hurt, late for camp, roo wall, etc). One of Moreno's biggest assets is his elite agility and this isn't measured at the combine. You are putting far too much emphasis on triangle numbers instead relying on game play.

Agility isn't measured at the combine? Then what's the 3-cone drill for? Moreno did have a great 3-cone speed, but that's hardly enough to single-handedly overcome everything else and make him an "elite athlete".

Also, i love how you hedge your bets saying lots of average athletes are studs in the NFL. That's clever.

Please type YES or NO after each of the following: We can black dot it for later.

I think Buckhalter is better than Moreno

Moreno's BEST is average (in the nfl)

also, one last thing, remeber Vernon Gholston. hee was widely considered the best defenser in his draft class based on the combine. how'd that work out?

It's not hedging my bets, it's simple fact. Terrell Davis was an average athlete. Emmitt Smith was an average athlete. On the other end of the spectrum, Chris Brown is a phenomenal athlete who has never done anything. Darren McFadden is an athletic freak of nature. Athletic ability is just one small part of what makes an RB successful. Just because Moreno is not a great athlete does not mean he cannot be a successful RB, and I never said it did. I also never said that the combine was a great indicator of NFL success (although one good Vernon deserves another- for every Gholston, there's a Davis). I'm just saying it's positively LUDICROUS for you to be calling him an elite athletic specimen. It'd be like calling Maurice Jones-Drew tall. It's just flat-out, 100% untrue.I've noticed that there's a tendency among football fans to believe that the players they like are without flaws. They think someone is among the best, and then they naturally assume that that means he's among the best at everything that his position entails. For instance, I've seen Terrell Owens fans say that he had great hands, which is ABSURD since he was routinely among the league leaders in drops. They just assumed that Terrell Owens was one of the best WRs, and hands were important for a WR, so therefore Owens must have fantastic hands. I've also seen people call Marvin Harrison a terrific deep threat (dude never topped 15 ypc), or say that Andre Johnson is unstoppable in the red zone (he's never posted double-digit TDs). It really reached the height of absurdity back when Chris Chambers was viewed as an untouchable stud maybe 5 years back. I get that you like Moreno. I get that you think he's going to be a great football player in the NFL. Even if he becomes a HoFer, though, that still won't make him a great athlete... any more than a 5,000 yard passing season would have made Doug Flutie tall. Knowshon Moreno is what he is. He's an average athlete who was drafted higher than his measurables would dictate because of his work ethic, vision, hands, and blocking.

 

[Deuceman]

And now news from our sponsors

280 carries - 1200 yds - 10 TDs

40 catches - 320 yds - 3 TDs

 

[Hoot&HoLLer]

Wait so he isn't athletically gifted now because he didn't show it in a couple games as a pro HURT and on a bad team? And what he did in college was silly? I wonder how he became a 1st rounder.

SSOG, let me tell you something. The combine is an ABSOLUTE JOKE. It is one day. I think most NFL teams would agree with me too. This is why they have Pro Day as well. And this is why they bring them in multiple times to do the same things over and over again. As for his 40 combine number, it was on a slow track. Almost everyone ran slower that day. Go look at the numbers.

Oh, I stand totally corrected. You're absolutely right, the combine track was running slow that day, and it's silly to just base off of a single day's measurements. As you said, that's why they have pro days! We should absolutely include Knowshon Moreno's pro day results when discussing how athletic he is.At his pro day, Knowshon Moreno ran... 4.60 and 4.63. A tenth of a second SLOWER than at the combine. In fact, those times made him the slowest RB drafted in the first round since 2000. So thanks for correcting me on this, it seems I was being unfairly kind to Knowshon Moreno when I was calling him an average athlete. If we follow your advice and look at his pro day, we realize that he's actually a below average athlete for an NFL RB.

You are taking his measurables and telling me he isn't one of the most athletically gifted RB's in the NFL and I am going off of what I saw on the field outside of his rookie year (hurt, late for camp, roo wall, etc). One of Moreno's biggest assets is his elite agility and this isn't measured at the combine. You are putting far too much emphasis on triangle numbers instead relying on game play.

Agility isn't measured at the combine? Then what's the 3-cone drill for? Moreno did have a great 3-cone speed, but that's hardly enough to single-handedly overcome everything else and make him an "elite athlete".

Also, i love how you hedge your bets saying lots of average athletes are studs in the NFL. That's clever.

Please type YES or NO after each of the following: We can black dot it for later.

I think Buckhalter is better than Moreno

Moreno's BEST is average (in the nfl)

also, one last thing, remeber Vernon Gholston. hee was widely considered the best defenser in his draft class based on the combine. how'd that work out?

It's not hedging my bets, it's simple fact. Terrell Davis was an average athlete. Emmitt Smith was an average athlete. On the other end of the spectrum, Chris Brown is a phenomenal athlete who has never done anything. Darren McFadden is an athletic freak of nature. Athletic ability is just one small part of what makes an RB successful. Just because Moreno is not a great athlete does not mean he cannot be a successful RB, and I never said it did. I also never said that the combine was a great indicator of NFL success (although one good Vernon deserves another- for every Gholston, there's a Davis). I'm just saying it's positively LUDICROUS for you to be calling him an elite athletic specimen. It'd be like calling Maurice Jones-Drew tall. It's just flat-out, 100% untrue.I've noticed that there's a tendency among football fans to believe that the players they like are without flaws. They think someone is among the best, and then they naturally assume that that means he's among the best at everything that his position entails. For instance, I've seen Terrell Owens fans say that he had great hands, which is ABSURD since he was routinely among the league leaders in drops. They just assumed that Terrell Owens was one of the best WRs, and hands were important for a WR, so therefore Owens must have fantastic hands. I've also seen people call Marvin Harrison a terrific deep threat (dude never topped 15 ypc), or say that Andre Johnson is unstoppable in the red zone (he's never posted double-digit TDs). It really reached the height of absurdity back when Chris Chambers was viewed as an untouchable stud maybe 5 years back. I get that you like Moreno. I get that you think he's going to be a great football player in the NFL. Even if he becomes a HoFer, though, that still won't make him a great athlete... any more than a 5,000 yard passing season would have made Doug Flutie tall. Knowshon Moreno is what he is. He's an average athlete who was drafted higher than his measurables would dictate because of his work ethic, vision, hands, and blocking.

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option? Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back?

This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?

Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option? Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back? This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

I wasn't involved in the exchange, but it seems pretty clear to me what the point was. Someone used an attribute as one of the main points in their argument that someone else (rightfully) disagreed with.If I tell you that Jonathan Dwyer is going to be a huge success in the NFL because the guy is blazing fast, are you not going to contend it? I mean, there are plenty of running backs in the league that have been successful without being blazing fast, but aren't you going to be like "hey, guy, that dude is not blazing fast"? And if his speed is the whole basis for my argument, then you can contend that my argument doesn't really hold any water even if it doesn't necessarily mean you're saying Dwyer is going to suck. I only presented speed as the reason, not anything else.If someone's looking to argue that Moreno is going to be good, they need to focus on the things that he does to make up for his average athleticism. Not just say "he has elite athleticism" which is really an almost impossible point to argue. Just like if I wanted to argue that Dwyer was going to be good, I need to talk about something other than speed.

 

[ty247]

Per Rotoworld

Mike Klis of the Denver Post has issued a "fantasy alert" on Knowshon Moreno, who has demonstrated "greater explosion and freelance running" this offseason.

Klis believes Moreno's biggest problem as a rookie was "running a little too much on coach’s instruction instead of instinct." Now that he's mastered the playbook, Moreno is running more freely and hitting holes with more decisiveness. Klis also believes the situational threat of Tim Tebow at the goal-line could open up more holes for Moreno to score.

 

[Hoot&HoLLer]

I

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option? Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back? This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

I wasn't involved in the exchange, but it seems pretty clear to me what the point was. Someone used an attribute as one of the main points in their argument that someone else (rightfully) disagreed with.If I tell you that Jonathan Dwyer is going to be a huge success in the NFL because the guy is blazing fast, are you not going to contend it? I mean, there are plenty of running backs in the league that have been successful without being blazing fast, but aren't you going to be like "hey, guy, that dude is not blazing fast"? And if his speed is the whole basis for my argument, then you can contend that my argument doesn't really hold any water even if it doesn't necessarily mean you're saying Dwyer is going to suck. I only presented speed as the reason, not anything else.If someone's looking to argue that Moreno is going to be good, they need to focus on the things that he does to make up for his average athleticism. Not just say "he has elite athleticism" which is really an almost impossible point to argue. Just like if I wanted to iargue that Dwyer was going to be good, I need to talk about something other than speed.

Guess i was just being obstinate. I knew the intent of his post, however the relevance of degree of athleticism and its correlation to fantasy football success seems somewhat pointless after reading that similarly average athletes who played the rb position in the nfl posted lofty stats that made them relevant ff. So ssog basically refuted that Moreno won't be as productive as the other guy forecasted because the other guy said Moreno will be productive because his athletic prowess. Ok Moreno as having athletic prowess has been shot down. So now what? Where does that leave him as far as future performance?Will he produce as a nfl running back? Sans him having above average athleticism, what were the intangibles that led most kro scouting services to rank him the top rb in the 2009 draft? What did they see in him that ssog and others don't? And since he doesn't have it, can he be successful as other average athlete rb's have been in the past?Are average athltecism at the rb position in the nfl and good to great performance mutually exclusive? Is there any hope for Moreno? Or is his star fading relative to his athletic mediocrity?

 

[jude]

I

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option? Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back? This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

I wasn't involved in the exchange, but it seems pretty clear to me what the point was. Someone used an attribute as one of the main points in their argument that someone else (rightfully) disagreed with.If I tell you that Jonathan Dwyer is going to be a huge success in the NFL because the guy is blazing fast, are you not going to contend it? I mean, there are plenty of running backs in the league that have been successful without being blazing fast, but aren't you going to be like "hey, guy, that dude is not blazing fast"? And if his speed is the whole basis for my argument, then you can contend that my argument doesn't really hold any water even if it doesn't necessarily mean you're saying Dwyer is going to suck. I only presented speed as the reason, not anything else.If someone's looking to argue that Moreno is going to be good, they need to focus on the things that he does to make up for his average athleticism. Not just say "he has elite athleticism" which is really an almost impossible point to argue. Just like if I wanted to iargue that Dwyer was going to be good, I need to talk about something other than speed.

Guess i was just being obstinate. I knew the intent of his post, however the relevance of degree of athleticism and its correlation to fantasy football success seems somewhat pointless after reading that similarly average athletes who played the rb position in the nfl posted lofty stats that made them relevant ff. So ssog basically refuted that Moreno won't be as productive as the other guy forecasted because the other guy said Moreno will be productive because his athletic prowess. Ok Moreno as having athletic prowess has been shot down. So now what? Where does that leave him as far as future performance?Will he produce as a nfl running back? Sans him having above average athleticism, what were the intangibles that led most kro scouting services to rank him the top rb in the 2009 draft? What did they see in him that ssog and others don't? And since he doesn't have it, can he be successful as other average athlete rb's have been in the past?Are average athltecism at the rb position in the nfl and good to great performance mutually exclusive? Is there any hope for Moreno? Or is his star fading relative to his athletic mediocrity?

it's shot down because he ran 4.53 40? Running a 40 point whatever whatever slower than someone else doesn't make you less athletic. Sometimes you gotta watch these guys on the field and you can see the differences. game film is more indicative of ability than anytihng the combine could ever measure.

 

[Hoot&HoLLer]

I

I

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option? Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back? This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

I wasn't involved in the exchange, but it seems pretty clear to me what the point was. Someone used an attribute as one of the main points in their argument that someone else (rightfully) disagreed with.If I tell you that Jonathan Dwyer is going to be a huge success in the NFL because the guy is blazing fast, are you not going to contend it? I mean, there are plenty of running backs in the league that have been successful without being blazing fast, but aren't you going to be like "hey, guy, that dude is not blazing fast"? And if his speed is the whole basis for my argument, then you can contend that my argument doesn't really hold any water even if it doesn't necessarily mean you're saying Dwyer is going to suck. I only presented speed as the reason, not anything else.If someone's looking to argue that Moreno is going to be good, they need to focus on the things that he does to make up for his average athleticism. Not just say "he has elite athleticism" which is really an almost impossible point to argue. Just like if I wanted to iargue that Dwyer was going to be good, I need to talk about something other than speed.

Guess i was just being obstinate. I knew the intent of his post, however the relevance of degree of athleticism and its correlation to fantasy football success seems somewhat pointless after reading that similarly average athletes who played the rb position in the nfl posted lofty stats that made them relevant ff. So ssog basically refuted that Moreno won't be as productive as the other guy forecasted because the other guy said Moreno will be productive because his athletic prowess. Ok Moreno as having athletic prowess has been shot down. So now what? Where does that leave him as far as future performance?Will he produce as a nfl running back? Sans him having above average athleticism, what were the intangibles that led most kro scouting services to rank him the top rb in the 2009 draft? What did they see in him that ssog and others don't? And since he doesn't have it, can he be successful as other average athlete rb's have been in the past?Are average athltecism at the rb position in the nfl and good to great performance mutually exclusive? Is there any hope for Moreno? Or is his star fading relative to his athletic mediocrity?

it's shot down because he ran 4.53 40? Running a 40 point whatever whatever slower than someone else doesn't make you less athletic. Sometimes you gotta watch these guys on the field and you can see the differences. game film is more indicative of ability than anytihng the combine could ever measure.

Just playing devil's advocate here trying to gain insight into the Moreno naysayers' thought process on their projections for him. There have been plenty of good backs who are solid if not spectularly athletic.

 

[finito]

Per RotoworldMike Klis of the Denver Post has issued a "fantasy alert" on Knowshon Moreno, who has demonstrated "greater explosion and freelance running" this offseason.Klis believes Moreno's biggest problem as a rookie was "running a little too much on coach’s instruction instead of instinct." Now that he's mastered the playbook, Moreno is running more freely and hitting holes with more decisiveness. Klis also believes the situational threat of Tim Tebow at the goal-line could open up more holes for Moreno to score.

This is interesting. I know these kinds of stories can be BS at this time of year, but it's still good info to have.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

I

I

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option?

Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back?

This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?

Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

I wasn't involved in the exchange, but it seems pretty clear to me what the point was. Someone used an attribute as one of the main points in their argument that someone else (rightfully) disagreed with.If I tell you that Jonathan Dwyer is going to be a huge success in the NFL because the guy is blazing fast, are you not going to contend it? I mean, there are plenty of running backs in the league that have been successful without being blazing fast, but aren't you going to be like "hey, guy, that dude is not blazing fast"? And if his speed is the whole basis for my argument, then you can contend that my argument doesn't really hold any water even if it doesn't necessarily mean you're saying Dwyer is going to suck. I only presented speed as the reason, not anything else.

If someone's looking to argue that Moreno is going to be good, they need to focus on the things that he does to make up for his average athleticism. Not just say "he has elite athleticism" which is really an almost impossible point to argue. Just like if I wanted to iargue that Dwyer was going to be good, I need to talk about something other than speed.

Guess i was just being obstinate. I knew the intent of his post, however the relevance of degree of athleticism and its correlation to fantasy football success seems somewhat pointless after reading that similarly average athletes who played the rb position in the nfl posted lofty stats that made them relevant ff. So ssog basically refuted that Moreno won't be as productive as the other guy forecasted because the other guy said Moreno will be productive because his athletic prowess. Ok Moreno as having athletic prowess has been shot down. So now what? Where does that leave him as far as future performance?

Will he produce as a nfl running back? Sans him having above average athleticism, what were the intangibles that led most kro scouting services to rank him the top rb in the 2009 draft? What did they see in him that ssog and others don't? And since he doesn't have it, can he be successful as other average athlete rb's have been in the past?

Are average athltecism at the rb position in the nfl and good to great performance mutually exclusive? Is there any hope for Moreno? Or is his star fading relative to his athletic mediocrity?

it's shot down because he ran 4.53 40? Running a 40 point whatever whatever slower than someone else doesn't make you less athletic. Sometimes you gotta watch these guys on the field and you can see the differences. game film is more indicative of ability than anytihng the combine could ever measure.

Just playing devil's advocate here trying to gain insight into the Moreno naysayers' thought process on their projections for him. There have been plenty of good backs who are solid if not spectularly athletic.

Sure, but your odds go down. Its not just his athleticism though. In fact, I was blissfully unaware of his combine numbers until this thread. For me, I saw nothing special when I watched him play at the NFL level. He was playing behind a great OL, with a great WR keeping the secondaries honest, and he still was not impressive. Buckhalter looked like the better RB, and he is an average NFL talent. Now, you take away a top 10 WR from the offense, and leave it with Jabbar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as your threats out wide. You also have an OL that is already in horrible shape with major injuries, including a severe injury to your all-pro LT. His situation seems to be worse than it was last year, and he was far from overwhelming last year.

To me, he seems like an average talent in a below average situation. Not a great combination.

 

[rzrback77]

Denver's QBs are Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, and Tim Tebow, so they look to be limited going down the field. Their WR corps are Gaffney (career 12.3 ypc), Royal (career 10.4 ypc), Stokley (career 14.1 ypc) and two rookies. Thomas should develop into a down field threat, but a rookie coming off injury doesn't look to be an immediate impact. They shipped off their good receiving TE. Knowshon Moreno was definitely outplayed a year ago by Correll Buckhalter, a now 31 year old journeyman at best who has missed three entire seasons on IR.

I am just not seeing an offensive juggernaut here in Denver. Moreno should be good for at least 1,000 yards rushing, but it will be tough going with very little spread the field threat. I think that Denver will regularly line up against eight in the box, so I wouldn't be confident in projecting a good ypc for any Bronco RB. In 09, Buckhalter led the way with 5.4 while Hillis with limited chances had 4.2. Moreno had 3.8 in 247 carries and Jordan had 3.4.

I know that some are pointing to an easier schedule, but it looks to me like the loss of Marshall will more than overturn the less demanding schedule. Possibly this is a location where Westbrook winds up as it is obvious that the Broncos need all the weapons they can get.

I think that unless the Broncos add another back that Moreno will be the bell-cow, but it will be a tough year to endure for him, the Broncos, and their fans. At this point, Moreno is going as the RB 15 and 32 overall and though the stats below may match that draft slot, it sure doesn't seem that he should go that high.

Knowshon Moreno 16 gms 270 carries 1026 yds 3.8 ypc 48 targets 35 catches 245 yds 7.0 ypc and 6 TDs

 

[jude]

I

I

I read the exchange and it looks like you both debated about Moreno's athleticism. But what was the point of it? You post noted that other rb's (some great nfl guys like Emmit Smith were not overly athletic (great athletes). What was the point of it? Is Moreno going to produce like other non-greatly athletic running backs and be a good fantasy option? Who are reasonable comps for his athletic ability? Were those comps good or great nfl producers at running back? This begs the question: for those comps that were good to great, how much was/were those performances due more to the team and scheme than the non-greatly athletic rb's natural athleticism?Now the funny thing: after reading my question, I am still left asking: what is the point?

I wasn't involved in the exchange, but it seems pretty clear to me what the point was. Someone used an attribute as one of the main points in their argument that someone else (rightfully) disagreed with.If I tell you that Jonathan Dwyer is going to be a huge success in the NFL because the guy is blazing fast, are you not going to contend it? I mean, there are plenty of running backs in the league that have been successful without being blazing fast, but aren't you going to be like "hey, guy, that dude is not blazing fast"? And if his speed is the whole basis for my argument, then you can contend that my argument doesn't really hold any water even if it doesn't necessarily mean you're saying Dwyer is going to suck. I only presented speed as the reason, not anything else.If someone's looking to argue that Moreno is going to be good, they need to focus on the things that he does to make up for his average athleticism. Not just say "he has elite athleticism" which is really an almost impossible point to argue. Just like if I wanted to iargue that Dwyer was going to be good, I need to talk about something other than speed.

Guess i was just being obstinate. I knew the intent of his post, however the relevance of degree of athleticism and its correlation to fantasy football success seems somewhat pointless after reading that similarly average athletes who played the rb position in the nfl posted lofty stats that made them relevant ff. So ssog basically refuted that Moreno won't be as productive as the other guy forecasted because the other guy said Moreno will be productive because his athletic prowess. Ok Moreno as having athletic prowess has been shot down. So now what? Where does that leave him as far as future performance?Will he produce as a nfl running back? Sans him having above average athleticism, what were the intangibles that led most kro scouting services to rank him the top rb in the 2009 draft? What did they see in him that ssog and others don't? And since he doesn't have it, can he be successful as other average athlete rb's have been in the past?Are average athltecism at the rb position in the nfl and good to great performance mutually exclusive? Is there any hope for Moreno? Or is his star fading relative to his athletic mediocrity?

it's shot down because he ran 4.53 40? Running a 40 point whatever whatever slower than someone else doesn't make you less athletic. Sometimes you gotta watch these guys on the field and you can see the differences. game film is more indicative of ability than anytihng the combine could ever measure.

Just playing devil's advocate here trying to gain insight into the Moreno naysayers' thought process on their projections for him. There have been plenty of good backs who are solid if not spectularly athletic.

There is a large contingent on these boards who live and die by stats. the poster debating with me is one of them. And I am not saying it is a bad thing or wrong. Just a different style.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Good info. I'm corrected. ...even though it would be more accurate to provide stats that were pertinent, ie what D the opposing team was running...s

What type of defense do you think the opponents were running on first downs?

60% of Buckhalter's rushes last year came on 1st down. He averaged 5.44 ypc on those rushes.

 

[Thomsen]

You can't be optimistic, as stated earlier. Bad OL, below average passing game, and a team that will probably lose more games than it wins. Buckhalter will probably see the field more than Moreno in these situations. The only way Moreno tops a 1000 rushing yards is if they run him into the ground.

 

[sbonomo]

1600 total yards, 13 total td's

857 yds and 4 tds and 3.7 ypc. Not very powerful and is indecisive. Looks a little thin in the hips to me. He doesn't have the speed to make up for his shortcommings.

-So you predict a worst year than his rookie year when he was hurt and learning the ropes of the NFL?-How has everyone soured so much on Moreno after only 1 year?

-Sure Moreno had a YPC that was less than appealing, but he had 947 rushing yards with 7 td's, 28 receptions for 213 more yards and 2 more TD's. So 1160 total yards with 9 td's as a rookie playing hurt.

-I think so many were burned by Moreno last year and are so down on him that he is a bargain at this stage in dynasty and redraft purposes. He is 22 years old, and although he has a good compliment back in Buckhalter that is all he is: a compliment back.

Moreno is the lead back for a team that will be well balanced running the spread as well as implementing a bit more of a power running game this year as well.....

(Rotoworld) The Broncos intend to use more two-back sets this season, with Spencer Larsen as the lead blocker for Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.

Analysis: This is a part of Denver's new power-blocking scheme, which promotes more of a smash-mouth mentality. Coach Josh McDaniels says the spread offense will still be used often. Moreno will be the lead back no matter the formation.

Moreno is in a great situation and with a very good year which is not a stretch will be in the top 10 dyansty rb's of 2011. I think he is a very good RB to gamble on while others are in awe of other young backs like Best and Spiller who won't put up the type of production Moreno did in his rookie year.

Moreno is very close to being very good in the NFL and due to his situation an excellent fantasy player as well.

I drafted this guy high in my dynasty last year and see nothing but upside at this point. If you watched him play last year his was hobbled in the first few games. However, i was very pleased with his ability to catch the ball and he did a decent job between the tackles. There are going to be a lot of people that second guess taking him over Wells but i still believe he will be a borderline RB1 or good RB2. I will project 1200 combined yards and 10 total TD's. Look for him to be more involved in the passing game this year making him a good value pick in PPR leagues.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There is a large contingent on these boards who live and die by stats. the poster debating with me is one of them. And I am not saying it is a bad thing or wrong. Just a different style.

On the flipside, EBF is an "eye-test" heavy guy and he was extremely unimpressed with Moreno as well if I recall.To try and pass this off as "SSOG just cares about stats, you have to actually look at the player" is silly when most of the people are down on Moreno this year because of how ordinary he looked.

Moreno didn't look good last year, nor did he produce well last year. The only thing Moreno did well last year was get a lot of carries. You can make all the excuses you want with injuries, but Buckhalter was even more banged up than Moreno and he looked, and produced much better than Moreno.

I made a long post in the dynasty thread a few days ago documenting the way that people fall in love with a player and hang onto them when it's clear they're never going to play at the level they initially dreamed of, with new excuses for them every week or every year. Moreno is the quintessential example of that. He's an ordinary/mediocre NFL running back, at best. Those guys typically only have value when they get tons of touches, and even if they do get tons of touches, as an ordinary/mediocre player those touches don't last. It's a gift from the fantasy football gods that Moreno's trade value right now is basically at the same place it was last year. Dynasty owners have an out, but most will pass on it because they've grown attached to the player and will finally end up cutting ties with him 3 years from now for a 3rd round rookie pick.

 

[5Rings]

Good info. I'm corrected. ...even though it would be more accurate to provide stats that were pertinent, ie what D the opposing team was running...s

What type of defense do you think the opponents were running on first downs?

60% of Buckhalter's rushes last year came on 1st down. He averaged 5.44 ypc on those rushes.

Good point, I forgot its illegal for a team to play a nickle pkg on 1st down

 

[jude]

There is a large contingent on these boards who live and die by stats. the poster debating with me is one of them. And I am not saying it is a bad thing or wrong. Just a different style.

On the flipside, EBF is an "eye-test" heavy guy and he was extremely unimpressed with Moreno as well if I recall.To try and pass this off as "SSOG just cares about stats, you have to actually look at the player" is silly when most of the people are down on Moreno this year because of how ordinary he looked.

Moreno didn't look good last year, nor did he produce well last year. The only thing Moreno did well last year was get a lot of carries. You can make all the excuses you want with injuries, but Buckhalter was even more banged up than Moreno and he looked, and produced much better than Moreno.

I made a long post in the dynasty thread a few days ago documenting the way that people fall in love with a player and hang onto them when it's clear they're never going to play at the level they initially dreamed of, with new excuses for them every week or every year. Moreno is the quintessential example of that. He's an ordinary/mediocre NFL running back, at best. Those guys typically only have value when they get tons of touches, and even if they do get tons of touches, as an ordinary/mediocre player those touches don't last. It's a gift from the fantasy football gods that Moreno's trade value right now is basically at the same place it was last year. Dynasty owners have an out, but most will pass on it because they've grown attached to the player and will finally end up cutting ties with him 3 years from now for a 3rd round rookie pick.

I will tell you honestly - I do not own Moreno in any league. I am not a Broncos fan. And i do understand the side that thinks he is oly a marginal talent/atlete/runningback, whatever. However, i am also not throwing the guy in the pile of "bust based on one season marred with injuries, coming to camp late, adjusting to a new team, new offense, new coach, bad team, etc.....If he looks just as bad this year then I wil lprobably come around to the other side. Or he could be bad regardless because his team stinks and then I have to let go

 

[CaptainHook]

the stats guys are the only people who could be high on moreno at this point.

it would be generous to call him pedestrian last year. buckhalter looked worlds better.

the only things he has going for him are a probable high workload(which is probably the #1 determinant of fantasy value) and the fact that he produced in college so we know he's capable in the right situation.

The running game was obviously very good last year given Buck's 5.4ypc thus we can probably expect moreno's situation to be either the same or worse.

I'll give his ypc a slight bump since to be fair it was his rookie year and he was also a little dinged.

The thing I was most unimpressed with was his short yardage ability and although I don't have any stats handy, what I saw was NOT promising. A slower guy like moreno needs to be able to run through people to be useful and I saw absolutely none of that.

270/1080/5TDs.

35/260/2TDs.

will put up decent fantasy numbers due to volume as opposed to skill, which can be particularly useful when the rest of your fantasy team is strong since it is stable and predictable and shuold reduce week to week variance.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There is a large contingent on these boards who live and die by stats. the poster debating with me is one of them. And I am not saying it is a bad thing or wrong. Just a different style.

On the flipside, EBF is an "eye-test" heavy guy and he was extremely unimpressed with Moreno as well if I recall.To try and pass this off as "SSOG just cares about stats, you have to actually look at the player" is silly when most of the people are down on Moreno this year because of how ordinary he looked.

Moreno didn't look good last year, nor did he produce well last year. The only thing Moreno did well last year was get a lot of carries. You can make all the excuses you want with injuries, but Buckhalter was even more banged up than Moreno and he looked, and produced much better than Moreno.

I made a long post in the dynasty thread a few days ago documenting the way that people fall in love with a player and hang onto them when it's clear they're never going to play at the level they initially dreamed of, with new excuses for them every week or every year. Moreno is the quintessential example of that. He's an ordinary/mediocre NFL running back, at best. Those guys typically only have value when they get tons of touches, and even if they do get tons of touches, as an ordinary/mediocre player those touches don't last. It's a gift from the fantasy football gods that Moreno's trade value right now is basically at the same place it was last year. Dynasty owners have an out, but most will pass on it because they've grown attached to the player and will finally end up cutting ties with him 3 years from now for a 3rd round rookie pick.

I agree to an extent.But what rookie RB's this year outside of Matthews would you project to be better than Moreno going forward?

A lot of times espeically following the NFL draft or leading up to their rookie draft people tend to like the next crop better. I would have to rank Moreno even at this time in compared to this years rookie draft like so....

Matthews>Moreno>Best>Spiller>Tate>Hardesty